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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  May 9, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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♪ david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, here is what we're watching at this hour. strauch's trading mixed as crude oil the wind and declared energy shares the worst performers of the day. brazilian stocks falling after motion to impeach the president is an old. meaning she will be staying in office for the rest of her term. donald trump, wanting to raise taxes on the wealthy. does this have any chance with republicans and the presumptive nominee? the turnover to the markets desk for julie hyman. stops -- stocks have not been doing much of anything, kind of muddled. the nasdaq has been steadily the best performer of the three major averages today. the dow has been in the red for
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the most of the session, there is a tug-of-war going on. as david mentioned, energy stocks are performing poorly. you can see that they are up off the lows but still down along with materials. there is a commodities selloff pushing them down. on the other side's health care, up by 1.1 percent. i wanted to dig into the rally that we are seeing. if you look at large cap pharma companies, allegan reports earnings tomorrow. johnson & johnson on the right. these of the biggest contributors in terms of the games we are seeing in the s&p 500. terms of what's driving -- driving them there, kevin, the big maker of generic pharmaceuticals be estimates and says that its generics pricing is actually not dragging down earnings that much, as are has been widespread concern about pricing of generic drugs and whether it would continue to decline. they said they didn't think they would see that much more downside. that is having a ripple effect.
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they also say they are going to complete their proposed acquisition of the allegan generic is this by the end of june, which could help those shares as well. then there is horizon pharmaceuticals. a specialty pharma company that has been beat up recently. shares have had a seven-day slide but you can see that they are rebounding today. earnings-per-share in sales beating estimates, saying that cash flow should improve through the balance of the rest of the year. in the past hour we heard from reuters that there was a nondisclosure agreement on a potential bid for the company. a lot going on. david: what about other assets, movement there? yes.: i wanted to take a look at what's going on with the u.s. dollar and the rally that's continuing. even though analysts don't expect it to continue. that is what we have been seeing in recent days from fed officials and the steady drumbeat that june should
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potentially be on the table. note onat the 10 year the flipside, the yields there are going down and that's part of the recent divergence we have seen between the dollar and rates. normally they would move more in lockstep but that is not what has been happening. finally, oil and gold, we've seen this commodities selloff as the weather changes in canada. the fire not threatening the oilsands as much as before with gold futures trading lower as well. very: julie, thank you much. that's julie hyman at the markets desk. first word news this afternoon, mark crumpton has more. paul ryan said he would step down as the chairman of the republican national convention if donald trump them to. the journal sentinel reported i will he's the nominee, do whatever he wants with ."spect to the convention yesterday he said he wouldn't
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rule out the possibility of -- mr. trump said he wouldn't rule out the possibility of blocking ryan from serving. mississippi is being sued over its law allowing workers to use their religion to deny services to same-sex married couples. the american civil liberties union filed a lawsuit in federal court today, saying that it will protect people's religious beliefs that marriage should only be between a man and woman. it violated equal protection guarantee of the u.s. constitution. three people were killed, 90 others injured as flames ripped through a hotel in downtown cairo, egypt. officials say that it took six hours to put out the fire, which is a spread to three adjacent buildings. the cause of the fire is under investigation. john kerry says that a new agreement between the u.s. and russia restores a nationwide truce in syria. speaking in paris after meeting
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with leaders of nations supporting the opposition. describing a joint statement calling on the troubled cease-fire to be improved and expanded. it's not clear whether russia or syria agrees with secretary kerry's interpretation of the agreements. news 24 hours per day, powered by 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. back to you in the studio. david: my next guest has a different investment strategy involving higher-yielding market currencies. joining me now is the portfolio manager of oppenheimer funds. walk us to your strategy, if you would. >> the cycle is in transition and it is about assessing the
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risks you are being paid to take on, right? what are you being paid for? commodity currencies are under this stress, right? but at level of attractive interest rates in emerging-market currencies like brazil. you can begin to overweight those exposures, hoping ofically with the goal collecting your income. we do not necessarily that on -- bet on that and it is sell against other currencies, such as the australian dollar, the qb dollar. we retain an overall dollar exposure. however more modest than what we had a year ago. we are focusing our risk budget more on opportunities. we see those beginning to emerge with high-yielding emerging markets.
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another area where not yet convinced in his emerging in asia. they're the likes of korea, taiwan, malaysia, that's where we see still clear exposure to the china risks and where you are not really pay to take any risk. it is also important to note that the commodity currencies in emerging markets do screen cheap on all of the objectively understandable metrics in currency markets. we got lackluster data from trade on china. looking at asia, where his china right now as you see it? >> you feel they are in another leg of their secular slowdown that began somewhere in 2010. however, somewhere in this time we have seen a repeated sequence in this cycle that typically lasted about 18 months to a year.
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usually we see that we are at one of those in -- inflections now. enough thatrun low if the credit stimulus, the enormous stimulus in q1 takes any traction on the demand side, the order side should start to kick in and it's easy to see a rebounding of that, however short-lived. david: where do you see the growth, if you are optimistic? david: >> -- >> on a cyclical basis we see a disconnect with the develop room rolling over into a slowdown phase for the u.s., europe, u.k., japan. intohina is about to enter
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what we call a recovery phase where the growth momentum is likely to improve from its levels being low and below trend. david: what is going to spark that? >> this level of low inventories that creates this threshold for production to kick in. also the destabilization of the dollar, commodity prices, it should bring about an improvement in sentiment. obviously the risks are very clear. the fed, first and foremost, we think that one or two hikes from here to the end of the year, whatmore -- it of -- it is we think we want to do, not necessarily the right thing to do. but we have repositioned for those scenarios and we think that if the fed were to deliver a hawkish statement in june, we would go back to the trading dynamics of january and february because the market is clearly telling the fed that this
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economic environment is not ready to sustain a hiking cycle. the dollar credit spreads would widen again. that we sawybook late last year or early this year. middle ofare in the earnings season. as you look at these currencies and rebalance your portfolio, how much weight are you giving equities right now? >> we are running slightly below target. it's not very constructive on equities. any outside earnings growth. especially in the developed world given where we are in the cycle. face emerging markets versus developed within an equity budget that is defensive. , appreciate it.
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portions of the so-called panama papers have just and released online. meaning you can search for the details on 200,000 entities named in the papers collected from the pentagon he and -- panamanian law firm. we will bring you the latest details as we sort through that newly released information. coming up in the next 20 minutes, efforts to resume -- remove the brazilian president hits a snag as they moved to impeach her. family in europe is adding krispy kreme doughnuts to their empire. from the deal to buy the coppermine,pany, how the latest rebound in commodities is affecting mna. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets. now to new developments on the brazilian impeachment process. the lower house vote was an old last month in favor of impeachment because of procedural irregularity. it prompted a selloff across the global market, paring against 4.4% as the stock exchange dropped. joining us now, julie, great to speak with you again. what are the worries of the procedural irregularities that he cited? he cited a few things. one was parties giving guidance to lawmakers as to how they would vote and lawmakers declaring votes before the sunday vote on the lower house.
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those were some of the two things that he cited in his decision. here, processlear continues? julia: that is a great question and what everybody has been trying to figure out for the past few hours. the impeachment isn't at the lower house anymore. the decision was sent to the senate, the senate received it, but we don't know if the senate can accept it. if this goes to the supreme court for their ruling? this is such an unprecedented situation, we don't really know. it depends on who you ask about whether this was or was not a legal move. we are still trying to assess how this is perceived. did the sitting president have to say about what we learn from the lower house? >> she said that she had heard ,ot officially communicated saying she didn't know the consequences of the decision.
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the attorney general is going to speak to the press. we might get more clarity as the to -- as to the next steps. has there been more since this happened? some groups have called for protest against the government. we haven't seen a huge protest on the streets, but it is what everyone is talking about. how have markets reacted? how have investors reacted to the news? >> there were a few moments of panic after the headlines hit and everyone scrambled to figure out how permanent the decision was. down a bite calmed and investors have been telling us that this is likely a todblock and not going completely throw the process back to square one, but it is a roadblock that could delay things a bit more.
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the backdrop is that long-standing corruption investigation. any sense on what that was about? >> that was a separate investigation into companies related to the tax agency and giving bribes to reduce taxes. the resilient finance minister, the longest-serving one that we've had. we haven't had much news on that since this morning. david: let's head to the markets desk with julie hyman. julie: the plunge we have seen today related to a potential scandal involving the chief executive officer company, down 27% at at a record low, as you might imagine. an internal review found abuses tied to the sale of a loan and
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failure to disclose personal investment funds. leading to the departure of the founder and ceo. the company saying that $22 million of near prime loans were sold to jefferies group. jeffries later than solve them back to lending club, not apparently what the client wanted to have happen. what's also interesting about the story is who was on the board and some of these individuals who invested money into the company, including the former ceo of morgan stanley, larry summers, mary meeker, and well-known tech analysts and investors. so, this saga continues but it is creating a bit of a ripple effect across the peer-to-peer lending industry. looking at valiant pharmaceuticals again, the firstg across quarter, saying they plan to file on june 10 ahead of the july 31 deadline. the new ceo, joseph poppa, recently coming to the company to reassure investors.
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at the same time there is still not much information showing within the filing, with another newly released documents showing that they did perhaps steer some money to its former affiliate in order to get them to sell their drugs more aggressively. there are still questions in the minds of investors about those companies and the shares are down 4%. checking on cbs and viacom after a judge ruled -- throughout the world -- throughout a lawsuit by sumner redstone's ex-girlfriend questioning his mental capacity. remember, he controls 80% of the voting rights of these companies . some investors have criticized him in particular. perhaps they hoped for a change in direction for one or both of these companies. viacom in particular is down sharply over the past year and that's obviously now not happening in the short term. david: a saga, by definition.
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one of europe's most prominent business families is now taking care of krispy kreme doughnuts. paying $1.4 billion for the icon, next. ♪
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is "bloomberg markets." time for the bloomberg business flash for a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. tpg has raised its first leveraged buyout since the 2008 financial crisis. last one.ize of the tpg's billionaire cofounders have transformed the private equity firm into a diversified of alternative asset classes. 300 economists from 30 countries -- openned an open late letter criticizing the existence of tax havens after the so-called panama papers
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disclosed. letters served no useful economic purposes. it's now in a searchable online release. that is your business flash update. one of europe's wealthiest families is branching out from coffee to doughnuts. the ryman family and austria has agreed to buy krispy kreme doughnuts. they've already built a coffee empire that includes craig -- kurig. as a young man in north carolina, i have been to one of the original krispy kreme's and seen the neon sign light up when a hot doughnuts are on the conveyor belt. what does this holding company want from krispy kreme right now?
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>> had trouble increasing the beverage attachment rate. they have high brand awareness for such a small chain. they must see great potential to be able to grow that side of the business. if i'm wrong, me we've seen them retooling towards beverages. trying to don that? how successful have they been? >> its higher-margin, so it makes sense. they have struggled. part of it is location. dunkin' donuts and starbucks have a convenience model. on every corner, three times a day, you may be able to find a dunkin' donuts on street corners three times per day. they want to be able to serve you. they go there for birthdays, they take the little league team out there. they never had to worry about having a plus real estate.
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we think that maybe some of the issue they've had in terms of increasing the beverage attachment rate. think of other companies eyeballing krispy kreme? >> in terms of jb? this makes the most sense for them. their portfolio is really a lot of u.s. chains that have a retail presence and a store footprint. krispy kreme fits right into that. in terms of private equity, ja be put an aggressive offer on the table and they may not be willing to match it. in terms of another chain looking to buy krispy kreme, we think that that may not happen for a couple of reasons. one, they have a complex retail sales model where they do some direct store delivery. there's large transportation shipping costs associated with that. it may not be something that starbucks or dunkin' donuts want to be involved in.
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they've acquired other brands and run them together. benefited from economies of scale, it doesn't make much sense for a publicly curated company either. we think that this may be as good as it gets. still ahead, the commodity close is coming up. at nymex crude, down 2.8%. more coming up here on bloomberg television. ♪
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♪ from bloomberg pause world headquarters in new york, "bloomberg markets."
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mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. >> the fight over north carolina's so-called bathroom law that requires transgender citizens to use restrooms that correspond to their sex at birth is headed to the courts. pat mccrory today said the state is suing the federal government and asking a court to rule that the law is not discriminatory. >> this is not just a north carolina issue, it's a national issue that imposes new law on every private sector employer throughout the united states of america with over 15 employees. loretto lynch will discuss the justice department's actions in about an hour. donald trump has been named to the chairman of his transition team. -- has named the chairman of his transition team. trump inistie endorsed february after dropping his own
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presidential bid. a reprieve for the brazilian president. last month's impeachment vote cited procedural irregularities. temporarily removing her from office on charges of illegally financing the budget deficit. are getting a break. a cold front moving the area -- through the area may bring rain and forecasts through the east. away from the oilsands operations of some board. the fire is forced to cut back ,0% of the region's oil output with 80,000 people leaving the city of fort mcmurray. global news, 24 hours per day, powered by 2400 journalists and 150 news bureaus around the world. back over to you. david: commodity markets
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closing, let's take a look at the biggest movers. dropping at 43, to 44. the shift in the fire is easing concerns over production cuts. metals, having its worst day since february. dropping as they gain speculation that the federal reserve is on track to gain interest rates this year. soybeans, down 1% today, data showing that the hedge funds with analysts expecting the usda to cut outlook i 6% due to floods in the country. an uptick of deals this year as capital is expected to start flowing and after a dismal latter half. during that time low oil prices did not return companies from going out and raising capital on their own. explained head of gas
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why earlier today on "bloomberg markets." >> not everybody has similar access to capital. the companies in relatively good thinkon have access and i they are doing it for offenses in defense of reasons. i think there is a tremendous amount of investor interest because these are very good companies with good balance sheets and capital structures. they are not broken companies and i think they see investors with this opportunity to come in and accumulate significant stakes at reasonable prices. i think investors expect recovery to come. we continue to have a lot of potential issues coming to market. >> these are not insignificant amounts. >> the other chart that we flashed was the eq t. buying appalachian assets. to equity raises in the last
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year, the stock is up and accuse going on matter what. does this mean that we will see more m&a like this deal that isn't huge but more asset sales? >> i think it's great likely that we will see more with good assets out there. companies that are well-positioned and have the ability to go acquire them. continuing to pursue it. it's not a repeat issue, but there are a number of others. companies with good physicians attractive to investors, that would continue. >> we talk about how banks cap lending to keep them surviving, even as there should be a shakeout in the energy sector. . does that delay the balance we need to see? companies we are
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talking about are companies that don't have financial issues of any kind. they been obviously impacted by lower commodity prices, but the companies on the screen are very good companies. there are a number of other companies that are very over leopard and don't have access to the markets and there will continue to be a number of restructured bankruptcies. there is a clear division between the companies with substantial access to markets and others where the fix, the fix for the balance sheet is too big. >> what's interesting to me is a great chart in the m&a with like 60 deals through the second quarter. that oil hasact fallen so much in the beginning of the year. despite the fact that we hear there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. why haven't we seen a huge increase yet? >> i think that m&a is clearly coming. >> i've been hearing that for a year.
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thet's a rough patch environment we are in, lower and longer, those expectations are more matched. you are also going to see companies more likely to use their balance sheet and equity as acquisition currency. more mergers and things of that nature. there could always be big companies coming after the smaller ones. but what really generates m&a activity is confidence and having some stability in the market is helpful. also, access to capital. these offerings you talk about demonstrate that people can use capital. i think what we will see is highly levered cash transactions . people understand it's a tough environment with high leverage
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and volatility not being a good combination. that was the global head of oil and gas investment banking at credit suites. coming up, donald trump, flip-flopping on his tax plan, indicating he might be open to higher taxes on the wealthy. could this be the end of chances for gop unity? the most innovative state in the nation? not california. i will point out that massachusetts is technically a commonwealth. coming up, a look at shares of massachusetts bates companies. we will be talking about some of those with emily chang in just a moment. ♪
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♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets." time now for the
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bloomberg business flash and a look at the biggest stories in the news right now. federal reserve and ecb officials are looking for time to give their policies breathing room. charles evans said the central bank is being careful by pausing the campaign to raise rates, thing borrowing costs should increase of economic fundamentals remain sound. neel kashkari tells reporters that commercial real estate is showing signs of froth and says that the next president should reappoint janet as the chair of the federal reserve. donald trump has hinted that he would appoint someone else. no for an answer, tribune is looking to thwart that unsolicited takeover offer. the board is adopting a shareholder rights plan known as a poison pill that gives shareholders the right to buy more shares at a discount. a defensive measure against a hostile takeover. uber and lift our writing out of austin, texas, they opted out of
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the fingerprint-based background check against drivers. they lobbied hard and threatened to pull out of the capital city if the security condition was not repealed. that is your business flash update. cutting taxes across the board has been republican orthodoxy for decades. now the presumptive nominee, donald trump, says that he would expect taxes for upper income americans to go up under his plan. howell this hurt efforts to mend fences with republicans? joining us from washington, kevin, who has been covering the campaign for donald trump. what has he said his plan going forward? he has provoked -- propose the new strata or category of taxation? kevin: i just got off of a conference call with top clinton advisers who criticized his tax policy proposal as both reckless
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and risky. i think that what you are seeing is that as you alluded to, donald trump has tried to play both sides of this issue to make it harder for the democrats to attacking or pin him down on a specific policy position. but this is definitely going to be, i think, one of the cornerstones of the attack on , just anecdotally speaking. i've covered his campaign for about a year and everywhere that i go the strength to his supporters, as well as those crossover voters for his appeal is that he is able to be someone who would be able to bring about economic change. they like that he is a businessman. secretary clinton and her campaign already trying to hit back and chip away at that narrative. david: he said something on "this week" that i wanted to run by an square with you. money on the wealthy, they will still be paying less than now."
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what does he mean by that? kevin: he has said that the cornerstone of his campaign is that he can make the argument that he would be tough on wall street. thatrats have made argument for years. donald trump has also said he wants to repeal dodd frank. -- of in and people people in active republican circles were looking at his candidacy and they like what he has to say about issues of regulatory relief, but the bottom line is that the clinton campaign would love to+++
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the crux of his ethnic argument and economic policy pitch on trade deals. he criticized the clintons, including former president bill clinton, just in the couple of days for passing nafta. he has said that secretary clinton was a supporter of that. he is of course hammering all the trade deals. that is what i think you will look to do against secretary clinton. david: suing out, let's take a look at the micro level. on the macro level it's a divide between donald trump supporters and the republican establishment. a proxy with paul ryan over the weekend, saying he's not yet ready to endorse trump as the presumptive nominee. donald trump essentially saying that he might advocate for the removal of paul ryan from heading up the rnc this summer. talk probably about what's happening with the campaign and the established republicans. kevin: what better way to get the establishment and getting paul ryan on board? when honestly, i think that the trump campaign views someone like new jersey governor chris
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christie, who just announced hours ago to be heading up the donald trump transition team as a way to build new bridges, despite the old bridges of the past that would seemingly run through rants previous -- reince ibus. they are going to meet thursday and expect there to be a lot of regulation about what they talked about. it will be interesting to see, signaling the watching closely on whether house speaker ryan and donald trump can get along. i would be very skeptical to think that should paul ryan not so donald trump, that that really matters, candidly, because i think there are other people like chris christie waiting in the wings for influence within donald trump us political orbit. what are people saying about the convention and what it will look like? there were news reports that ted cruz supporters are writing in
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saying they want bona fide conservatives of the convention. donald trump again saying he might want not -- might not want paul ryan at the head of it. this is 10 weeks before it's supposed to take place. kevin: yes, and the latest reports are that ted cruz and his supporters are angling for influence tonight. ted cruz will be holding a conference call with his top supporters and allies. ,e is returning to the senate which is coming back in a couple of minutes on capitol hill. this is a dramatic shift for a , when we weeks ago thought there would be back room and off the record conversations. not there will be an outside source to enter into this race, and whether or not he would be able to get
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everybody on board and take on secretary clinton in november. kevin, really appreciate it. julie hyman has the latest on the market. kind of mixed and not doing much. julie: i want to look at the bond market for a minute as we see the yield slide on the 10 year note 1.76%. some fed officials have come out and said that june is on the table, depending on the data, of course, but we have not seen the yield push up at all. interesting note from citigroup job growth slowing with higher demand from overseas treasuries may push yields to a record or near record lows. if you look over the longer-term call you get a sort of picture of the trajectory we have seen. you can see that we are already sort of near the record low levels. citigroup is saying that it could be possible. of course we are still say -- still seeing that the fed is
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going to raise rates. a 4% chance of being priced into these futures of a rate hike in june. even going out to february of 2017. really interesting. at the same time i should say that if you look at global bond yields, we already have record lows being set. this is a global broad market global consumer price index headed lower. we are already seeing the levels globally. another strategist at citigroup, the chief global equities strategist said that all of this scenario does is favor stocks because the yield their is higher. all of the indexes around the world are in white. it's their dividend yield against the treasury yield. you can see that they are below
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it. generally seeing a 1% differential that favors stocks, which he thinks is going to continue. that if people are looking for yields, the bond market is obviously not giving it to them. david: appreciate it, julie. coming up, the birthplace of the american revolution has transformed itself again into one of the most important technical scenes. boston. ♪
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david: this week "bloomberg west" is traveling east, showcasing the technology seen in and around the massachusetts capital. including things like draft king , trip advisor, and ge, moving its headquarters to boston. emily chang joins us from
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district hall in boston. many of us familiar with root 128 and the storied history of tech companies and that court or. what is going on over there? emily: it sort of the innovation hub of boston. this is where startups and people in the innovation community congregate. this is in the c4 district of boston, where ge really moving its headquarters from connecticut. i huge coup for the city. it came with a big incentive package, creating hundreds of jobs. they will be looking at startups potentially acquire. there are a lot of egg tech companies here as well. there is a super cluster of biotech and pharma companies, as well as a number of startups. 40 plus accelerators in the boston and massachusetts area. some of them are tied to universities. others you may have heard of. tech stars, pouring money into
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this community. one of the problems is that a lot of those that start in boston don't stay in boston. you know that facebook started in a harvard dorm room and then moved to silicon valley. but mark zuckerberg says that if today,starting a company he would have stayed in boston. but that's a big focus on the community, focusing on the innovation ecosystem and convincing entrepreneurs to stay. no shortage of big academic institutions there. hard to develop partnerships with these companies? they are,emily: indeed. harvard now has something called the x fund, a venture capital fund linked to harvard and harvard startups. the goal -- the goal is to keep those startups in the family and m.i.t. has a long history of that. also a lot of academic research with money spent on r&d.
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cambridge alone, $4 billion, four times what's spent on tech academic research in the area with a lot of venture capital firms in boston. early investors in twitter and oculus. they recently relocated their headquarters. you you talk to these firms asked -- why are you in silicon valley? they think that it gives them a competitive advantage. david: ge moving will bring a .ot of jobs but it also says something about where ge is going as well. kevin: indeed. i mentioned that this was a huge coup for the city. we will be speaking to the mayor of boston, who is really responsible for making the deal
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-- making the deal happen. and they do have it at a $150 million package that convinced them to move out here. one of the most important things they will be bringing to this community is the potential to be a big acquirer. something the city is really excited about. boston simile because of the ge location, we are going to be out here for the next three days. this car, another boston-based company. we will be talking to frank doyle. their goal is to be a top five program in the world. we will be talking to one of the partners and earliest investors in twitter. they have their eye on drone companies. we are going to be talking to a guy working on supersonic jets.
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remember the last supersonic jet that was available to some aliens -- two civilians? this guy wants to bring the idea back. it's a fascinating story. as you can see you have got all of technology happening right here. appreciate it, emily. the next hour, betty liu will be following today's trade. cindy crosby will be her guest. here are the markets. looking at the dow, fairly changed. more coming up. ♪
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>> 3:00 p.m. in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪
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betty: good afternoon. here is what we're watching at this hour. markets are actuating. taking energy stocks down with it. -- about the sectors that may be poised to rise. the resilient premise or just to keep her job. a vote keeping her in congress has been an old. that has stocks selling off. a rough day for lending clubs. after aumbling, ceo out review found loan sales. deeper regulation of the industry? we are about an hour away from the close of the trade. i want to head to the market desk were julie hyman's china to make sense out of the market today.


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