♪ anna: china's slowdown grinds on. andth in april slips, retail sales and investment numbers miss estimates. eu cbi says the british referendum has put a cloud of uncertainty over growth. the biggest british business lobby cut its economic forecast. chinese car hailing service didi is considering a u.s. ipo after receiving a $1 billion cash injection from apple last week. welcome to "countdown."
i am anna edwards in london. manus: i am manus cranny in dubai. you will kick it off with china. i know you like a chart. anna: i have a chart for you. today, equities bouncing this morning, rebounding from a one-month low. the sales tax increase in japan is one factor, maybe hopes for stimulus in china. chinese stocks gaining a little in the session. we had a rough month of april. , over the weekend industrial production, retail sales, investment, and new credit. i have a chart here showing bloomberg dvt for china, a monthly tracker through the deluge of data. gdp justnth of april, 6.8%, below 7%. 7.1% is where we were in the month of march. manus, that's one of the things the markets are dealing with, a
slowdown in china, but also constantly reevaluating expectations from the fed. manus: absolutely. we will get minutes from the fed. that will be the real linchpin of this week's trading. for me, it is about volatility. i love when there is a little nuance to volatility. have a look at this. this is the volatility for the u.s. bond market. it is falling, drifting lower, the lowest since 2014. this is bank of america merrill lynch's index. 63.92. we have done a poll at bloomberg. the market is split as split can be on fed policy. will they delay because of the brexit and the u.s. election? -- weg about a recession surveyed 66 people in the marketplace. 3.53% at the upper end, at the bottom of the market, 1.5%. we have not seen a gap like this since 2013.
the market is very, very divided, but i am also skeptical when it comes to that little bit of volatility, a depression in volatility, jumping off to a six-week high for the dollar with good retail numbers. retail sales, producer prices, consumer sentiment. how is your risk radar, anna? anna: a big week, as you say. we have moves in oil prices you need to be aware of. wti up 1.3%. goldman sachs talked about the market being in deficit earlier than they expected, increasing demand, a drop in production, all contracting to that. goldman sachs increased their forecast for where oil goes this year. we had the dollar index. you mentioned it, pretty flat this morning after a six-week high on retail spending data that we got recently. the fed minutes are due this week. also data is due out of japan. a real focus on japan, with central bank and finance
ministers descending on japan for the g-7 meeting. abe said this morning this go measures might be needed to increase demand. a lot of talk in japan about whether we will see a delay to the sales tax increase. that is moving the yen around a little bit. will they or won't they? manus? manus: anna, let's get up to speed now with yvonne man. yvonne: moore disciplining data out of china. the monthly gross domestic product tracker shows growth slowed to 6.88% in april, down from 7.11% in march. a drag on industrial production. meanwhile, retail investment ratings came in short of estimates. middle eastern oil producers, including saudi arabia and oman, had ratings lowered by moody's because of a collapse in crude prices.
it is 40% lower than in november 2014, when saudi led a decision by opec to keep pumping and defend market share in the face of swelling global inventory. >> the fiscal reaction function of this government -- what we found, saudi arabia and oman and bahrain are more vulnerable to with a veryanges, high double-digit deficit in the next couple of years and a substantial increase in debt in those three countries. vonne: the norway will fund will attempt to join a class-action suit against volkswagen after the omissions cheating scandal. and they1.64% of vw, say they are acting to safeguard their holding in the carmaker. the fed may delay in interest-rate increase until later in the year as it eyes
risk, looking at the brexit vote and the u.s. presidential election. that is according to pimco's head of portfolio management for emerging and asia. this comes as the biggest british lobbying group, the cbi, cut its forecast for the british economy, saying the eu referendum put a dark cloud of uncertainty over the outlook. they now see gdp rising 2.2% this year. mark carney defended the bank of england against critics, warning about the dangers posed by brexit. it comes after he said leaving the eu could trigger a recession in the u k. the boe governor spoke to the bbc. mark carney: if we are taking the judgment as a committee and changing policy because we are putting out billions of pounds into liquidity facilities, getting banks to raise capital, as we did a few years ago against these risks, it could potentially alter the path of interest rates, or other instruments of monetary policy, because of certain things.
we have a duty to explain that to the british people and to parliament. yvonne: the mayor of manchester demanded an inquiry after a security plunder led to the cancellation of manchester united's last game of the football season. a suspect package found at the stadium before the match against bournemouth was a training device that had been left after an earlier security exercise. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 euros around the world. more stories on bloomberg. anna: thank you very much. yvonne man in hong kong. let's check in on the markets in the asian sector. juliette kicking off coverage from hong kong. we have a bounce in asian equities. juliette: we were expecting a choppy session, and i guess that's what it has become across asia. we're certainly seeing that.
a lot of southeast asian markets are lower, tracking that weekly we had going through from wall street on friday, but there has been a good gain in the nikkei. it has pared back from earlier gains, but this is due to reports early over the weekend that the plan to sales tax hike in japan could be delayed. we also had a bit of a weaker yen, boosting things. the nikkei up 0.3% in late trading. good gains are coming through from health care players in australia, sending the index of 0.5%. in hong kong, a very solid session reaching -- leading the region higher. the hang seng up over 1% after lunch break. the shanghai composite, which earlier in the session was that a two-month low, is positive again, so investors are shrugging off the week chinese data we had over the weekend. the philippines are also adding to solid gains over the course of last week, on the back of its election. having a look at some players we
have been watching across the region. there are reports china's age and a -- hna could take a stake in singapore. toyota tire and rubber falling significantly after cutting its forecast, dropping the most in 16 years. disappointing data out of china over the weekend. falling copper prices have put downward pressure on emerging market currencies, certainly a symbol of dollar strength. the korean won down 0.6% at the moment. that is actually a two-month low. we have also seen the malaysian ringgit coming under pressure, down 0.2%. the japanese yen is also weaker, down about 0.1%, giving a boost to japanese equities. things are looking a lot better in the afternoon session here in asia than they were in morning trading. anna: thank you very much. us with saly, joining the latest on what's going on
with the asian equities session. let's talk about what has been going on in markets with our guest for the first hour of the program, joining us now. charles, good morning. let's start today by talking with china. i have this chart i discussed with manus, monthly gdp tracking, showing it ticking down a little bit. still .6 .8% -- still 6.88%. charles: the authorities have signaled clearly, having created that nice little uptake in the first couple months of the year, they don't want to re-stoke the speculative bubbles, particularly in the property market. looking at the loans data from last week, they were very weak indeed. that tells you that they are trying to keep a lid on things. i don't think we are heading for a hard landing, but this is all part of a much bigger, longer term structural reform process, where they are accepting of a lower growth rate than they were
previously. they are changing the business model. it is not a one-week process. data does notthe go month-to-month, let credit creation data. gregory: exactly. i think it is worth remembering, when it comes to china, the fact that they have tried to sort of shift their currency basket, and the overall emphasis on, if you like, away from a gradual appreciation towards the more neutral or balanced approach, that, again, is tending to signal that there are these underlying growth concerns. and the level of leverage within the chinese economy remains huge. thereby, they do have to step very carefully, because there is always at risk of a hard landing. we don't think there will be one, but there is that risk with these underlying imbalances. anna: what about the role of the central bank?
they have been quick to reassure that monetary policy is there to support the economy. gregory: i think you will see further easing from the chinese central bank. it will be slow. it will be measured, with some headline rate cuts in due course. that's almost inevitable to me. i think, the worrying thing would be if we start to see a rapid pickup in the default cycle. that is the big risk. anna: thank you very much per charlie diebel stays with us, from of the that investors -- aviva investors. manus: let's get more details from greg, standing by for us. greg, take us behind this. we just spoke to charlie. no hard landing. auto sales are down. i'm looking at some of the data. they are actually refining less oil. should we be more worried?
data well, looking at the just coming in throughout the month, nearly every instance they, the data have come below economist estimates. it's pretty clear that the chinese economy is slowing. however, if you were to look, for example at the industrial output number, which was released last month, was slower than a year ago. if you look at the year to date figures, they are roughly in line. same with the retail data, the retail sales data came out over the weekend. there are some signs that maybe economists are expecting more as the economy is still holding out -- manus: look. everybody is trying to work out what comes next from the government. they were quick to reassure the markets over the weekend, from a
support stance. but in reality, they are not going hard on rate cuts. so what are the letters they are going to use in terms of supporting the market, and growth? i think the government is going to do what it does best, which will be leaning on fiscal policy rather than perhaps monetary policy. the government has an incredible control over the economy, and it is still maintaining the so-called proactive fiscal stance. so probably looking at more government spending. the big question is on the monetary front. what will the central bank do? will they continue to cut rates, or will they maintain a position tightening?
they came out on friday to reassure the market following the lower-than-expected new credit numbers, telling the markets that it will still support growth through monetary policy. manus: thank you very much a greg turk -- thank you very much. greg turk with the latest on the data. let's bring charles back into the conversation. very good morning to you. i have a lovely graphic for you. anna loves it when she walks in at 3:00 and i have conjured some thinking earlier. the big beast companies in china. i know you said no hard landing, but there is short interest in china's largest etf, up 10% last week. they are deciding whether to set up on bonds, stocks, or the yuan. what do you make of this? charles: the key is about the capital flows data. until recently, that was the
number one concern of policy makers in china, that you are seeing heavy outflows on the currency, putting an exceptionally -- putting on an exceptionally heavy reserve burn. if anything, moving into the equity market tells you that perhaps we're moving to a different stage in the default cycle. as i said to anna, i think that is one of the bigger risk going forward for the rest of this year. if there isn't sufficient growth, if there isn't sufficient liquidity in the system, that can put pressure on the default site. that's one of the reasons why we are looking for further rate cuts, further easing from the pboc. anna: charlie, thank you very much. el stays with us a little longer on the program. today, foreign ministers from 17 countries, including russia's sergey lavrov and john kerry of the united states, gather in vienna for a syrian support group meeting. tomorrow, a raft of data
including united states housing starts and industrial production. wednesday, said minutes -- fed minutes. and we round of the week with greece's alexis tsipras heading to rome, attending to secure backing for his country's next bailout payment. manus: up next, "a dark cloud of uncertainty." that's how the biggest business lobby group in britain said the threat of a brexit is. the cbi's growth downgrade. all that to come on "countdown." ♪
flash. the chinese car hailing service didi is planning an ipo in new york next year. that's according to people familiar with the matter. they say that the timing will depend on how the firm's battle with uber plays out. last week, apple put $1 billion in two didi, growing their valuation to $26 billion. the company confirmed it is in discussion to enter the films is miss. the game company is and talk with several partners, and would use cash from the sale of the seattle mariners baseball team to fund the operation. the bank of singapore says it sees the private banking industry moving to a fee-based model. at a time of volatility, the ceo says clients are more cautious about trading and increasingly
prefer the relative consistency of returns from fee-based managed portfolios. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: yvonne man in hong kong. anna: the fed may delay in interest-rate increase until later in the yearas it eyes risk associated with the brexit vote and the u.s. presidential election. the pimco head of portfolio management for emerging asia. the biggest british lobby for business, the cbi, cut its forecast for the british economy, saying the eu referendum has put a "dark cloud of uncertainty over the outlook." it now sees gdp rising 2% this year. manus: mark carney has defended the bank of england against political critics furious about his warnings about dangers posed by brexit. he says leaving the eu could trigger a recession in the u k. the bank of governor spoke to the bbc. if we are taking a
judgment as a committee, and changing policy because of it, putting billions of pounds in liquidity facilities, getting banks to raise capital, as we did a few years ago, against these types of risks -- if we are potentially going to alter the path of interest rates or other instruments of monetary policy because of certain things, we have a duty to its claim that to the british people -- to explain that to the british people and parliament. back in the conversation. carney is defending his right to explain, there is a little economic risk if you decide to go for a brexit. run, the longest winning streak in i don't know how long, but they say there is more risk to come. what is the biggest risk? >> i think the markets are taking a very rational view of this. if you look at the opinion polls, the betting data, it has not really shifted in weeks now. there is not a clear trend.
no one seems to be making fake inroads on one way or another. because of that, the uncertainties we talked about months ago remain. primarily, that's as far as the currency is concerned. i think we will see further weakness, possibly further volatility heading into the vote. for gilts, it is slightly different, because that is in the context of a pretty strong performing in -- performance in u.s. treasuries as well. if you have the 10-year note at 1.70, the rally does not look so extreme. that is more to do with the bigger global concern about growth, and whether the fed will move, and the overall inflation picture. anna: speaking of the overall inflation picture, we get quite a lot of data out of the uk. inflation data tomorrow and labor data on wednesday. is that all irrelevant, or will it give us clues as to how the brexit debate is affecting the
u.k. economy already? charles: it comes back to the word "uncertainty." the data itself will not be terribly relevant in terms of driving the markets, but what is relevant is the fact, what has been the patient economic growth -- pace of economic growth. we have had a relatively reasonable performance from the u.k. economy, certainly related to europe. thereby, if it has a bearing on the vote, it will come purely by the fact that the u.k. economy is doing ok. you could say, you could slice that either way, but the reality is that unless there is a big turnaround, the u.k. economy has been relatively reasonable. the ecb areie, about to start buying corporate bonds, pushing along with qe. what are the risks to that gilt run from those moves, if at all? charles: i don't think
european qe is incredibly relevant. once we get past the brexit vote, gilts will track what is going on in terms of global yields and the fact that there are signs of some slowing in the u.k. economy on the back of this uncertainty. once that is removed, you don't, i think -- you know, i think that will in the short-term determine the fate of gilts. but longer-term, is about how inflation does globally. for the time being, both of those are relative. anna: thank you very much. don't forget, anything you want bloomberg you are a terminal user on the brexit debate, brex go. keeping track of the likelihood of the brexit and opinion polls. up next, china's car wars.
compiled, theyta are acting to safeguard. the interest rate hike associated with the brexit vote ahead of the election. the cbi cut the growth forecast and the referendum has put a dark cloud of uncertainty over the outlook. the mayor of manchester has an the last game of the football season. they say the package found devicethe match was a left during an earlier security exercise.
the news is powered by our bureaus around the world. you can find more stories. host: thank you very much. the latest stories. the stocks have rebounded. we have a little bit more detail and a yield curve. >> thank you. we have the chinese data and disappointed data. not too much of the estimates. there is the delayed sales tax increase. we saw it fall to a two-month low and they have erased some of
those slightly. year yield,t the 10 this could be cause for concerns in china and a speculation. part of a broader story with debt overstocks and this is important to highlight. if we look at the other data, and a lot of focus on the economy's and the consumer spending. and iis the sales data had to change this before we started talking. gain and itollar was in focus.
data after the retail sales data. curve andshow you the the gap between the two-year and 10 year yield. investors havee been moving out in the u.s. in and there areelds expectations that the fed could move. thank you. let's talk about oil. the rally has failed to convince skeptics. you have been pouring over all of this and it is interesting. us? does your chart show
that rally in the oil price is what the market is most focused on. goldman says you will get $51 by christmas and the rebalancing is coming. excuse the pond. line is new and you are seeing a market had to the positions. they do not want to run the risk. positions that they traded for three straight weeks to add with the historical data and it gives you a sense of what is going on with the economic development with moody'sup
itlier and they talked about and the middle eastern producers reviewed withs the collapse and brent is lower pumping andt defended the market share. assess thed to impact and the reactions and we was moret saudi arabia vulnerable to the price structure. it is the high double digits and there is a substantial increase in these countries. with anna and i
this morning. review and they are playing a bit of catch-up. there are ratings that do not really matter a huge amount. when you look at this story, what is the biggest risk? we are seeing some major oil companies get into the market and issue bonds. >> i think that, from a theyeign point of view, have fairly substantial backstop and they have been running budget deficits with shifts. driving the market
higher with the way they have hanging to the market. upside with the in thers and they lock prices, unless there is a shift in the demand dynamic. in rangearket remains for the next six months. >> they talk about how they see we have a chart that shows the count going down and that is the oil price going up and a section of the charts.
downis supply-side coming and they talk about the demand going up. demand is a global growth story and it is worth keeping in mind that you will see the i do not see a big pickup in the global growth as with theseactions storage tanks pretty full and it is easy for them to act as a buffer. >> a thing i touched on earlier was oil companies. gone for the rate
is this the type of paper that will get a great deal? >> you are going to see a lot of credit papers and demand for with thesed companies continuing to produce and sell oil. they support the servicing of the debt and the higher yield with prevailing yields. getting pretty attractive ones with u.s. treasuries. >> we are talking about the australian 10 year and the commodity market.
we are talking about the chinese slowdown with record lows and what is your expectation with the bond market? >> you saw a fairly strong a lot of that has elephant in the if china is easing back. over thingscloud like iron ore. and it keeps pressure a response to the dynamics like this. there is a good chance.
>> thank you very much, charlie. -- biggest the company is in the process of and we are inlion hong kong with details. take us through the details. that they been told have not decided which exchange they are going on at this point. potentiallyt them ahead of the uber ipo. host: what does it mean for their plants with the chinese
market? guest: look at where they are right now and they have raised $3 billion at evaluation, according to the sources. it puts pressure on uber. they will have to up their game and globally. i think we lost the line. thank you very much. basics withgh the that in china. go and why where to japan may be running out of
as the company confirms they are in the works to enter the film business. they will use cash from the sale of the seattle mariners team. the bank of singapore says that they are shifting the model at the expense of charging wealthy client commissions. they say that it is a time of and talk about preferring the relative consistency. bloomberg business flash. >> we get the earnings this morning and the results come as they have a record number through march. we look at what to expect.
you on the to have program. what are we looking at? market in thehis second half with some growth there. increase down a little bit and there is uncertainty. is what important thing we are looking for with management and how he sees the market going forward. are they worried about the supply? what is the medium-term outlook? mentioned the dreaded word there and to what extent can we quantify the impact on
land? the world's slowing down. and they have been extremely slow. off inpaign kicked earnest and there is an argument to say that brexit is creating pause in the market. it will be interesting how the market response. in terms of how it impacts the land, they have not had asset disposals recently and it has not been a huge issue. they will be looking to dispose most of thes and
andects are almost complete it would make sense to sell them now and invest in new opportunities. talked about a record number of projects being started in london in the six months leading up to march. >> these numbers are interesting. game and thes thing to bear in mind is that we are coming off of a low base in the last few years and it is hard to come up with. the immediate oversupply is a fear of the headline. ande will be more supplies
a thing that was interesting the secondumbers is largest property company in the united kingdom and the realities and theyisted sector about notcautious entering a new speculative development. >> very fascinating. numbersthe top of the aheadpan may start to go of rankings with a record stimulus program. meanwhile, the loan growth is
declining and there is little gain in the stimulus boost. charles is with us. we just went through a number of interesting dynamics with the japan story. things did not go the way the central bank intended. >> absolutely not. have beenlicy metrics .concerns to increase the policymakers have the difficult the surgeon and they road andted down that it is hard to see anything other than doing more.
>> it is because you have seen the central banks around the world engage in similar policies. isdoes mean that there if you doolicy and not change the way the economy operates, you will not get a shift in behavior. they're trying to save more, rather than spend more. >> let's talk about the fed minutes. it seems like they are fighting the. plots. dot plots. it suggests a going toss for a
rate hike this year. >> i would tend to agree with that and that the market has almost gone too far with pricing . the market has been right in pricing a more dovish path and they were pricing less. it is 50% by the end of the year. -- a slim chance and >> thank you for joining us for the past hour. >> we are getting back into the data and bringing you the latest
increase coming through their with the proposed dividend of interest. we have some coming through. >> we have, indeed. 114 million u.s. dollars, in terms of people who have left the business and the of march.he 31st rough rideeen a ahead of schedule and they say target willt-saving meet 700 million. in and theyome
price. >> it is moving a little bit nigeria is at the lowest production since the sachs isd goldman raising the price by the end of they're looking to rebalance more quickly than anticipated. are going specifically high and what happens next to the dollar is my favorite story. echohite house race could this chaos. hike?e see a sales tax with so little delivered.
i love that. by the way, you never thought you would get this. >> definitely did not. let's get the first word news now. the monthly gross domestic product tracker shows that is and retail and investment ratings came in short. have hadbia and oman their ratings change because they collapse in prices. kept pumping to defend market shares in the face inventory.
forecast. haswhile, mark carney defended himself against the critics. he said that leaving the eu -- a trigger a recession recession. aref we are changing and we raising capital against these risks and we are changing the becauseinterest rates of that, we have a duty to explain that to the british people. >> the mayor of manchester has didn't -- requested an inquiry. the police say that a package
was a device that was from an earlier exercise. you can find more stories on our website. >> we were hearing from our they are saying positive commentary and outlook. in themained confident trend with the business. there is a potentially adverse impact for the european union. british land story. heidi has the story for us. seee're starting to
earnings underway and uncertainty over policy with japan and china. through withing three weeks of declines. we are seeing a resurgence of positive sentiment and they hope stimulateorts to markets. there is news. happened, they really brushed off the negative data. one that was aly mess. wesaw asia turned flat and
they said it was rather cold. the stocks have rebounded, despite the disappointing data. and missed the estimates they showed the growth slowed. ensure investors that will support the economy. malcolm, how bad is the data? the tracker says things are slowing down. togetherng it all after the hopes of march with us the retail april and
with creditnomy growth. that is a takeaway. andeconomy is still growing it is reliant on debt. they do not want it to pile up and they are going to go back a little and we are unlikely to economy may the dial back a notch. >> do they want more lending in the economy? contradiction. stimulus can cause more
deflation, if it goes in the wrong areas. companies andd to the prices fall and the mess gets work -- worth. they want to pull out the capacity. at the same time, they need to and they obligations ish.t to become bubble i they have to take money out of the best and worst performing. it is no easy tax. guest's bring in the next
into the conversation. it is great to have you on this program. let's get the tracker that we are watching here. we are seeing a bit of a retrenchment in data and things been stable for the last number of quarters. >> i do not think that we will get growth close to that. seeink that we are going to growth in the economy and it is clear that parts of the economy are in a recession and they are unemployment in these areas. this is part of the economy that
is stressed and they are trying to achieve. knowing what you can do to respond is difficult. >> good morning. what is the day just issue? >> they are both a concern and people always have a degree of uncertainty about the chinese policies with aims and goals for the economy and there is an will fall backy of rely on the old stimulus export growth. they say they do not want to do that and are not going to do that.
>> it is 20 minutes past 8:00 in frankfurt. >> thank you. range of therice it givesand they say the price value. the listing will be under the light. the ipo in new york, according to people familiar with the matter. apple put $1 billion to swell the evaluation. the nintendo shares have risen after they enter the film business.
they will use cash from the sale. the bank of singapore says that they see the private industry. the ceo says that a time of volatility in the global market has rich clients increasing preferences with management portfolios. that is your bloomberg business flash. back to you. >> thank you very much for bringing us up to speed. we had a wave of attacks and infrastructure was hit. julian.ing in we have production back.
why does nigeria matter? more matters because it is volatile and saudi arabia is and they have said they will produce with the market needs and we think that we have a good feel for what saudi arabia will do. in nigeria, we are seeing big production and they said it was we have seen and the analyst estimates put it low. it would be half of the capacity and half of what it was doing last year. the budget was producing an average budget of $2.2 billion. what happens in the north of
the country? >> they are separate and what we see in the delta is a swelling of outrage among the predominantly young men over the way the delta is treated by the government and the oil companies operating there over a lack of money coming back. with the endncides and whaty in 2009 appears to be the emergence of a new group with a new generation who have seen this as a problem. >> thank you. richard is still with us. i want to talk to you about what
never was so much spent and so little. next structure is the rumor of the weekend. a negative andy the previous increase. down andnitely slow it add to inflation. not the right sort. i do not think that the japanese have 18 to unlocking this. we will see pedestrian rates for the next two years. >> good to have you this morning with the analysis.
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♪ welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european equity market. i am guy johnson. why did the u.s. curve flattened so much? we are joined by one of the biggest names in the bond market from hsbc. this weekend, week chinese data is a worry -- weak chinese data is a worry, but the real concern e. the u.s. dollar-yuan rat