tv Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg May 20, 2016 12:00am-1:01am EDT
>> it is noon here in hong kong. here are the top stories. sworn in as taiwan's first female president, she is saying she will maintain dialogue with china and keep the peace. beijing has warned of consequences if she does not embrace the 1992 china one in principle. the global economy with watching 10 warning that intervention will not help the search for growth. japan is under pressure not to weaken the yen, and washington says the real problem is global demand.
oil shares are swinging in $2.2 billion. it will fund much of the buyout fund and assets totals. it says it wants to create a champion in pop a new guinea. those are the headlines from bloomberg news, powered by 100 50 news bureau around the world. let us look the market, friday, last trading day and we greeted taiwan lows for lunch. shanghai composite climbing, 1/10 of 1%. this is the picture in tokyo and mumbai. back in half an hour, time for the best of bloomberg markets middle east. ♪
rishaad: i am richart salaam it -- richart salamat. headlines from bloomberg news, the downgrade from moody's this week. had investors hoping, and hearing from analysts who are faster racing action. saudi arabia's holding of u.s. treasury were held for the first time. $70 million in u.s. debt as of march. holdings of u.s. federal debt has come under scrutiny because the kingdom said it would liquidate the holdings if congress allowed families of terrace bil terrorist victims t. dubai,ranny travel to where they discussed opec supply strategy in the future price of oil. >> the market share is a theory opec,as implemented by
coming down from 2013. to me, i believe it has been working well. now when you see a better price in the market, i think demand has been increasing. production,ut and canada, nigeria, and the shale oil, it seems that over 3 million barrels per day have been cut already. to the cost coming out, maintain 91-92,000,000 barrels, you have to have a strong investment. and it seems like over the last two years, 30% of the amounts have been divested. demand willou that be picking up. and this is the forecast everybody has been talking about. so, probably we will see a more stabilize market, the meeting of june 2 is coming up.
and it appears we have a dialogue in that meeting, very important to determine our future. manus: would you agree that the market is rebalancing? i hear what you say on-demand and capital investment side? would you rebalance, and if so, balancing by the first quarter of next year -- >> clearly, some of the outages of production is a temporary thing. of course. but it helps the price now. forecastink the everybody has been talking about, heading towards the end of 2016, should be that balancing of markets between demand and supply. ofcame early only because canadau know, fires in and the issues in nigeria and elsewhere. manus: you say you are getting
ready for the opec meeting. the world, we all thought it was good to be the dramatic freeze, which never came. i must ask you, what is the probability, what do you think is the probability, of a successful freeze at the june meeting? >> there was a good meeting at dohar. i have not seen or heard of a meeting so much in opec numbers. and the dialogue itself, i think is a positive sign. it is a huge positive sign. this is why we are starting to see many people anticipating the drop of oil prices would be much more sharply, but it did not do that after all. it went down a number of days, then we saw the rebalancing. so, that takes us into june's meeting. in the june meeting, if the maybe arice is as is,
good understanding and dialogue with opec, that will continue on deciding how to go forward. manus: what does it take to get iran to agree to a freeze? case, they need to come back to their production before the sanctions. many other countries believe that you cannot do a freeze, unless everybody freezes as is, as of today. markets will lose share, and it is hard to lose a client and get them back again. if it is a market share thing, are speaking to the market share strategy, we are planning our production, we are investing heavily, heavily in oil investments, and to match our strategy of production in 2020. manus: everybody that i
interview in the bloomberg chair, nobody escapes, not even the excellency, i need your prediction for oil for this year. we are almost at $50. can we break above that? and if so, how high? is anelieve $50 a barrel expected price for 2016. manus: if we get a freeze, can we make $70? > we will talk about this after the meeting. manus: well done. i remember the sovereign wealth funds, where i broke my very initial years. you had the seventh-largest wealth fund in the world. for a rainylion, day. what the world wants to know, are you adding money? or have you withdrawn money from kia? some of the tough times you have
had? know, seriously, we used some of our general future funds, we had two of them, futures -- which is the largest one. and the general reserve. and we used some of the general reserve to finance our budget. this is not a secret. yet, what ever last year's budget in the coming budget and the existing budget, we calculate about 10% of our income, whatever it is, if we are in a deficit we cannot sell to a generation going forward. this is why we do both, pushing and injecting. taking out of it to finance our budget. manus: a couple of questions for you. we are hearing that, obviously,
you may take some of the local assets, $100 billion and put them into a special vehicle and sell those off. is that true? not decided that you. manus: not true? >> some of the ideas> on the table. skies,: we had to the talking to the president of emirates airlines, and the cargo business. stay with us. ♪
this week. manus: the most profitable year ever. crossing the billion mark. same as last year. can you replicate that? gary: yes, i'm confident we can. the trouble is organizations tend to get measured in terms of fighting to performance. i am a great deliver of the service in the product that the service customer wants to get that right, do it safely, financial results will come. we are very much focused on doing it. making sure we are well-positioned to bring a strong and consistent product. manus: that is the message coming through from your colleagues here as well. get it right, and they will fly. get it right, we will deliver. part of your strategy has been acquisition. cash-rich company coming or balance sheet, are you a deal hungry --is it in your blood? is there more deals on the card? gary: yes, there is.
we are not what i would call hungry, because it suggests we might be less than cautious. we are looking to good, solid opportunities. ones we believe we can integrate into our business, so we can make sure that we do not erode the quality and the standards that we aspire to. yvonne: i want to talk little bit about cargo in freight. a huge element of the business of course. tim clark actually managed yields, what are you expecting now? you are talking about where the rate and cargo is going in general, we have seen a bit of a softening, cargo rates are low. i think the airlines are struggling. there is a lot of capacity out there. unfortunately, when you look at the global economy, if rate is normally assigned of that it is doing well, the economy will do welcome we are seeing some weakness there. having said that, we look at our
market share and what we have done, we have invested a great deal in the u.k., where we would probably be number one in the cargo handling business. we are seeing strong and growth in general? yes, air cargo has been softer than we would like. yvonne: we also see a low jet fuel criteria i know that -- you usually don't hedge. but it is a right time to do so? will you change the policy? gary: i mean, speaking for the emirates group and emirates airline, we are not hedged. and at the moment we do not intend to. the trouble is you can get caught up in the day-to-day movements of it. yet the look of the fundamentals. those airlines that did hedge in the past have suffered. and the results have suffered. we take the view that fundamentally we do not see a great deal upside to oil prices right now. but time will tell. you know, this is really a game of russian roulette. nobody really knows what is going to happen. manus: on delivery, tell me how
this is going to be financed? cash, loans, what is the complexion? gary: you answer the question really. the thing about the aircraft, that is the size of many airlines. it is a massive number of aircraft, a massive capacity. and we have not actually make any plans to tap the bond market right now. but we have already mandated, or have firm offers, for all 36 aircraft in place. we're in a good place. manus: when you see other players, this is one of the things, everybody is racing to the bottom market. why not now for you? gary: not saying we do not, but we have no plans right now. all 36 are covered. we do have to repay two bonds the one equivalent to 100 million singapore dollar-denominated. so having done that, if you look at our cash balances, i think we
are spending about $5 billion in cash. we are in a pretty good position. as long as we deliver good financial results, we will find the markets willing to respond to us. manus: always willing to support with that kind of back history. i want to circle back. we charted a little bit, manus, you said we are cautious. not one of these hungry mad dealmakers. let me get a sense about what it i like to do a deal in iran, know you set up new travel business there, how difficult is it? is it easy to set up a business in iran? gary: we have gone with local partner. look, we have been there before. many years ago, we had an airport there in iran, and when they moved to the transfer: a really good ground handling operation. we know it. we set up a travel business there. it is easy, low investment. you don't need to put a lot of capital into that. and you know,, we don't see any issue with that at all.
we are doing that on the back of a number of airlines into tehran from europe. so we see it as a good time to do that. manus: will you create a new ground operation? will you look at that? gary: i would love to. it really depends on the circumstance, the ability to get a license. one of the things about this region, as much as i would to see us do a lot more, it is actually very, very difficult. the politics of the region, the way the licenses are issued or not issued, there is a lot of protective situation there. you know, major airlines have their own ground handling operation. they want to protect that. we are hopeful. that the keep plugging away. manus: you have to keep turning. that has to be every day, when i come in here. your cargo numbers, getting by 5%, my question to you is this -- you are a man with vision, everybody talking about recession and a slowdown, where is the slowdown?
because it is real. where is it showing in the cargo space? gary: we see a slowdown in the far east. but also here in the uae. because a lot of the traffic we used to get year out of the airport, which was very strong cargo, was based on military action in the region. that is what we see quieting down a bit. that has been a major impact here. but the commercial cargo in dubai has been very strong. that 6% dip is just related to dubai, to traffic. globally, we have grown targets by 46% through acquisitions and organic growth. we are doing very well. rishaad: up after the break, bloomberg markets looks to the efforts of saudi arabia's market to investors. head of's global equities. stay with us.
gotten investors rather excited. manus talked to the global head of equities about that when he was in dubai this week. manus: markets in the middle east are opening up with the ci, last year,s riyadh granted licenses. and trading with hsbc. patrick george is the global head, he joins us now. great to have you with us. you are very welcome. to the opening up of saudi arabia, it really has not been a resounding success thus far. but what are you seeing from the forms that are proposed, changing the rules in terms of assets under management? are you more helpful -- hopeful for a better projector he patrick: it was the first step for a foreign investor to have access to the market. it came at a bad timing for
emerging market investors. as you can see, they went into turmoil, the oil price collapse. and it was a very good step, but it came at a bad time. but what we had recently was to massive reforms, structural reforms and another to reacts other one.ip on the and the opening of the saudi economy for the program, in order to diversify from the oil into the other sector. those two will definitely create a catalyst for foreign investment into saudi arabia. there is no doubt about it. it will take time, but it will happen. manus: i was reading through the title of your notes, a study of why the kingdom must and can be reforming. it is almost thatcheresque. there is no alternative. you talk about media expanding only 3% of households, talking play --, tourism, do i
i am trying to get somewhere with this question -- do i play directly into saudi investments? or do i look at major european systems who are already doing business with the kingdom more? patrick: i think you should place it in the saudi market is so. we have to wait for the opening to happen, the floor of the ipo to happening. and the big one everyone is thinking, this would change the name of the game. and through the structural reforms, the inclusion of saudi arabia in the msci. andit should be between 3.8 4.2. quite substantial. manus: trillions of dollars? patrick: that is a trillion dollar question. manus: almost 5% on msci. what do you think it is possibly worth? patrick: it is a long process. but the moral is that we have to find out what we are going to be, then we will know what
really works. beyond the exchange. manus: so everybody is contributing of view on when the next rate hike will come, global head of hsbc is still with me. tell me, we had a little bit of inflation. assaultld that was what all of our problems. i was told that normalization might get back to where i would earn something on my deposit. if the market is shuttering at the thought of the rate hike, what does hsbc think? >> i think hiking interest rates would probably have some interest on the market, as we break that negative cycle of low interest rate and negative interest rate. but investors want to see that actually there is normality in the interest rate cycle. we go down, go up, and we ride the cycle. we believe, i believe, there will be another hike this year. whether it happens in june or september, i don't know. theit is for sure you have take in mind the u.s. president election. in november, and there will be
a time for the fed will want to play that election or not. but going and raising interest rates is not necessary perceived as a bad thing. it shows that the u.s. economy has gone to normality. manus: they almost have to get a couple of waves before november. we have a couple of big ros risk. the brexit, donald trump in the white house, and choking on the back end of the year? patrick: it has been about political deadlines, with brexit and the u.s. elections, timing will be important. one thing the market has shown recently there is, at the moment, a bit of apprehension from investors, generally speaking getting into the market. because of those two deadline. balancing those deadlines will be quite a difficult task for the fed. manus: let us get your perspective on europe. what i was looking at here, we have sentiment rising. citigroup'sex --
numbers are back. getting back to better. but equities are under a little bit of pressure. what do we need from a european perspective to convince you to take more european equity risk? patrick: what we need is a referendum on the 23rd of june. once we have that, then we will decide. in order to invest in european equity, we need to understand what europe will be. manus: my question to you is this, the ecb is locked into negative rates. they are more focused on the transmission mechanism than the debasing of the euro. do weo you need to see, need to get brexit out of the way? patrick: yes, definitely. in my view, we need brexit out of the way. at the moment, there is a disconnect between what the investor wants to do and what the real economy is. manus: so we take a little bit of profit off america. we reconsider our position on europe. there was a wonderful article the other day, never was so much money spent and so little
delivered. i am channeling shinzo abe. what is your view? we are a colossal amount of stimulus in japan, and nothing happened. if i was an equity investor, i would be crying. patrick: no, not yet. [laughter] i think we have to give japan a little bit of time to solve their problems. we have given them a lot. i think abe is quite serious. what we need to see in japan is structural reform. they had just been bumping liquidity into the system. but we have not seen structural reform. rishaad: there is more best of bloomberg markets: middle east, when return. stay with show me top new artist. ah, ha ha. show me top male artist. my whole belieber fan group. it's not a competition, but if it was i won. xfinity x1 lets you access the greatest library of
12:30 in hong kong. i am angie lau. sworn in as taiwan's first female president. taiwan's neighbors think she will maintain dialogue with china to keep the peace across the strait. they have warned about consequences if she does not embrace the 1992 one china principle. for $37ralian forecast billion deficit. the pre-election fiscal outlook also shows the falling iron ore price on gore permit revenues -- government revenues may be blamed on higher shipping revenues.
and a deal with alibaba to allow mobile payments to access on galaxy smartphones. samsung payed 5 million in the first month. this deal is half $1 million. settling in latin america as well. chair is swinging after agreeing to buy much of the deal by selling much of the deal. tsonga was to create a champion and poppa new guinea. and those are the new headlines, powered by over -- believe,lion mark we and the potential acceleration could be as much as 12 months. when the oil price is low on the energy prices low, and a very competitive market in asia, greed and avarice must win out. and those are the headlines from bloomberg news, powered by 2400 bureaussts in 150
around the world. let us get a check on the asian markets trading today. here is haidi lun. i: not as bad when it comes to how things turned out in the u.s. section. but when it comes to the price of repackaging the expectation of the fed going as soon as next month. asia is not quite there yet. we are seeing very strong gains, after gains and losses in the morning session, various numbers coming up from hong kong. up 2/10 of 1%. weakness when it comes to some of these percent banks. and one of the lenders now going to be streaming down the presence in the indian market. shanghai hanging above the 2800 level, up 1/10 the 1%. the u.s. number is on the longest using streak this year on the back of this resurgent dollar strength we are seeing. expectations from the hawkish fed. elsewhere, energy stocks are driving higher.
look at the recovery rally, if you will, after the selloff there. the past couple of days, also watching the afternoon session. and a reduced session -- a gets underway. and we are capping hong kong and china at the top of the hour. back to thecome best of bloomberg markets, middle east. i am rishaad salamat. the news out of the region is that moody's downgraded several sovereignties in the region. oil price is increasing budget deficits. manus had a chance to interview the analysts who reported markets earlier this week. manus: let us talk about sovereign rating. moody's downgraded the credit rating of several middle eastern countries, and the local oil price environment is to blame. we are joined by middle east analysts. what changed?
you downgraded saudi arabia couple of months ago. you are back again. what has materially changed for you since april? >> let me clarify what we did. action on all sovereigns, we decided to confirm the kuwait raising, changing the outlook to negative. as for saudi arabia, oman, bahrain, we decided to degrade by one notch. manus: i am trying to understand what has changed? typically, on the saudi. oil prices have risen. >> we decided to start a review in march, following the drop in oil prices. we wanted to see how impacted public finances, and the fiscal reaction function of the government. and what we found is that saudi arabia, oman, and bahrain are
more volatile to oil prices. thet was a double-digit next couple of years, and a substantial increase. yvonne: just a quick question for you. we have seen oil prices, they have stabilized, from january. is there a floor you look at, that could possibly push you to move again on the rating? acknowledgeah, we there was a liquid oil price recently. but that does not change our view that there is a fiscal change in the old market. and we have seen substantial change since last year, several factors mainly the price hike. manus: let us talk about the difference across the region.
because that is something which comes to play, just set out your score in terms of differentiation and how you look of that between the producers and exporters. >> well, i think we have two categories of ratings now. we had the aa rating. abu dhabi, the rating, forqatar example for the sovereign rating, we decided to assign a negative outlook two each of them. for slightly different reasons, related to the execution of risk, which we see in terms of their fiscal ration to lower oil prices. manus: is that remotely achievable by 2020? >> well, i think there are several and limitation risks to the national transformation, and the vision of 2030.
but when we say in our reports, at least under partial and limitation of this plan, the raising would be resilient. and itfull plan works, puts upwards pressure. that is why we had to stabilize. manus: partial implication is what i'm looking for. what is the red line? what does saudi arabia have to deliver at the minimum, the next 12 months? mathias: there are several structural reforms that were outlined. say reforms with other parts of the goals, reforms of the labor market, reforms in terms of diversifying the economy, investing in new sectors, diversifying fiscal revenue. all the countries have announced that by 2018, and we think that
it will be implemented in 2018. so, that is kind of the framework we are looking at for saudi arabia. manus: the other big piece, the folks on the foreign exchange, we see those peaked a short time ago. you expect that to fall to war hundred $60 billion by 2019? is this driven by capital slicing, or by fiscal support? mathias: it is mostly driven by fiscal pressure. so, we are seeing that financing will change a little bit going forward, to relying more on external bets rather than reserve financing. and because of that, we expect the debt burden to increase to 42% of gdp by 2020. in the form exchange reserves will go down. manus: what causes the more accelerated drop in the fx
reserves? that ityour model say, accelerates beyond that 450? mathias: i think all models on oil prices are, let us say, it is very difficult at we forecast oil prices. but if oil prices were to fall goingower level longer, back to $25, we would consider that -- that put some pressure on middle east sovereignty. rishaad: coming up on the best of bloomberg markets middle east, we will find out how investors are reacting to the movies downgrade -- to the moody's downgrade. stick around. ♪
immediate market action. manus talked about how investors should deal with the downgrades, and where to find opportunities in the middle east. manus: the sovereigns are moving. we have the dubai-based investment fund, thank you very much for joining me. a very good morning to you. moody's, we had the moody's guide here early, saying that will keep the ratings for the much in check. do you get worried when you see these moves from moody's? >> not really, manus. cutslarge extent, moody's and negative outlook for the region. and it is vastly expected, and in the price. manus: it is already trading in the price. we have opted out a telling us this morning, this is the story, the chair of economic
development, talking $70 oil. i have heard people talking, but this is optimism gone awry, isn't it? haidi: i think that is optimistic. our basis now is $30 for some time. we think that oil markets are driven mostly by the margin of producers in the u.s.. and developing today, the state, i think the uae is really well positioned for $50. manus: and if we just circle the wagon a bit, the imf report, growth in the u.s., knocking up to 5% by 2020, let's talk about what this means. you have areas you like, part of it is health, medical, motor insurance. what is the biggest opportunity> di: the me tell you where you should not invest.
india. [laughter] today, in this environment, where you have liquidity situations, and where you see government finances are obviously much tighter, you should stay away from companies that are relying on government spending. that sounds obvious, but that is what you should be doing. and then companies that are in that space. what you should be looking at is the priority sector from an entity, the national plan from 2030. this would be looking at some health care, education sectors, and companies that can benefit from these structural changes that are about to happen in an economic climate like saudi arabia. kuwaiti, how do i play that trade? hadi: yes, i think you play it in saudi, definitely. that is where the transformation of the economy is happening.
this is a big program. i think it is a very ambitious wondered i agree with moody's that the imitation is going to be challenging. i think the large extent, it is attially into a program, health care will definitely benefit from that. education spending will continue to increase in saudi arabia. you want to position yourself there. thathen specific companies will benefit from regulatory reforms. you see a lot of that in the insurance sectors, and that is where you should be positioning yourself over the next 5-10 years. manus: reporting yesterday about the sovereigns, linked to saudi arabia, let the shift our focus a bit to kuwait. because they are part of the situation here. you say they remain best positioned in the middle east. you are talking specifically about the breakeven point. kuwait is not really
fragile at this point in time. breakeven is around $49. but they have also vast reserves, and they will not deplete them in the foreseeable future, because it has been constrained over the last 5-10 years. not good news for the economy. because they have not been funding medium to long-term project. but at the same time, in this type of environment, it has proved to be a good thing. manus: if i have to look at the banking space, i spent some time talking to asset managers, you are not so keen on the banks, and a relative sense, to the weighty exposure. it is interesting what is happening in the banking sector. i think there is a deterioration of the asset quality, which is normal with a slowdown. we see it in the corporate earnings, consumer spending slowing down. and i think that the banks are at the early stage of feeling
the slowdown in the economy. i would not rush investing in the bank at this time. saudi arabia should look at the banks that have been reluctantly go. but i don't think this is respective of the medium, long-term outlook. you have seen that a lot of the loan growth has come from the funding of working capital sme, companies that are not in cap x. i don't think that is sustainable. and it will lead to a deterioration of assets. rishaad: coming up after the break, we will hear from the man who runs indonesia's state oil company. and a bond investor with lots of money in the middle east. stick around with us. ♪
managing director at national bank of abu dhabi securities. manus: equity markets, we will get to those in the moment, the big theme? what i really want to know from you is, is that what clients are asking for? is there still a huge demand? we had the issuing of debt sales. we have a bit of a bar chart, what is the appetite like? >> i think it is very positive. that is why we see increased activity now in many of the banks, particularly the islamic banks or the other banks, going out and trying to do the primary market. i think they saw the appetite for people to go to these kinds e, confirming the ratings. and two, i think the issue is that the rate interest rate,
they think they can get a better price than manus: if they do it later on. get in ahead of the fed. what i have for you is abu dhabi and dubai. dhabi ran up by 24%. ok? dubai ran up by 30%. we have pulled out. show me your perspective on this, abu dhabi versus the by. will the drift continue in equities lower? mohammed: on the short-term, it is. in july, we had this uptick because we had the inclusion of shares from the morgan stanley index. that helped us a lot. we have rebalancing of the morgan stanley index on the 29th of may. but we expect markets to be a little bit less in terms of -- selling and buying pressure. but we do not believe that it's good to be a major move. the traded values in may are extremely weak. they are as week as january. and we worry that if they have
any bad influence on that story, market value will be very weak. manus: you are saying we have weak volumes. will we see more volatility? volatility, that it will be exacerbated? ahammed: we are running vacuum of local markets. and it is not going to affect the international one. the international ones, for our the sessions, pricing interest rates, if this continues without any positive outlook, they could be seeing selling pressure. technically, we are up by points. and it is good for a sustainable up 450. we could go to 3000. and we lose all the games for the market. manus: the key is emerging markets. ci, isg around nine, to ms that evaluation opportunity?
bahamas: it is, indeed. but the risk of environment, it is not supposed to be that attractive. but you can really pick certain stocks that give you a very good pe, which means there is a lot of value. manus: how are you getting ready for vision 2030? do you buy into the trillion dollar violation? come on? mohammed: i think it is would be very positive. a lot of people will jump into buying it. but i honestly think it has to be more of an international participation than just a local one. i think people will jump into owning parts of the oil industry, the reserves off saudi arabia, but it is a long-term. manus: the crunch in the price of oil is having up impact across the world. theing me now from jakarta, president, director, and ceo of indonesia's state-owned oil company.
thank you so much for joining us. making sense around the world, when i look at your business, your estate-owned enterprise. you cannot escape. you have upstream and downstream businesses, retail businesses. what is this new environment of lower, lower for very much longer, mean for your production? >> yes, minister. i think this is the interesting question. eventhe price is going, that in the last few weeks, it is empty again. but this is having a real situation of production cost. we if we see the situation, are fighting, and the good thing is that it is becoming a lot of
opportunities to get the efficiency. the thing is this. last year, we start the process. , and thethe petrol 600, we got last year million dollars u.s., and we continued that process. and facing the situation, of course that would be good for the performance. and so far, as we saw last year, net profit is not changing a lot. even 40%. but - manus: let me ask you, i hear what you are saying about efficiency. i think that is something that
every oil industry captain is trying to do. but capital expenditure, for this year going forward, will you cut capital expenditure? and how much will you cut it by? yeah, sure. we have already decided that the quality is around 30%. and we cut around 20%. it was what we do. and so far, until the first quarter of 2016, we got a good performance on it. huge downturn a in business. i thinkhat business, there is a good culture for the ofmunity to get a low price fuel in the market. rishaad: that is it for this week's bloomberg market: middle
the fed,'t fight to black rock saying it is time for fed traders to start planning a move. the federal bank is moving closer to a rate hike in june, or july. finance face off in the g7. they're pressuring japan, with the yen strength in focus. and the hunt for the missing egypt airplane enters the second day for the search. a report that some of the jet has been found. ♪