francine: oil advances from august lows. keeping his mojo, billionaire trader paul tudor jones wants to make riskier bets as he faces his worst performance since 2008. and, buying british for now. the pound rallies on u.k. retail sales and job market resilience. well the good news out last summer weather? we speak to heathrow's ceo. welcome to "the pulse" live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. we have a great show lined up
for you. at 9:30, we have our weekly brexit show ringing you all the news and conversations around the u.k.'s vote to leave the eu. we speak to heathrow ceo john holland-kaye and go through the markets and central-bank action. first to the markets. two things you need to watch out for. oil trading above $48 a barrel. the dollar paring some losses for the week as stocks decline somewhat in europe. they are also declining in asia. this is a picture for yen. twice this week it went below 100. i don't do this very often, but i want to show you the south korean won. it slid to a low in the last five weeks. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: the u.k. financial services industry has reportedly
given up hope of universal access to the eu single market. according to "the financial times," the city is speaking -- is seeking a bespoke deal with similar but stronger ties than switzerland. the paper says representatives from the industry will present their ideas to prime minister theresa may next month. oil is set for its biggest weekly gain since march. wti and brent have advanced more than 20% from an early august low. speculation is growing that major producers may freeze output. a former deutsche bank risk has rejected a reward from the securities and exchange commission according to an opinion piece he wrote. he says it is disappointing that top executives retired with multimillion dollar bonuses and the ftc imposed fines on the shareholders instead of the managers responsible. he blew the whistle on the bank
overvaluing a derivatives fully a. two u.k. companies have abandoned their pursuit of william hill after it rejected their increased 3.1 billion pound bid. , the u.k. takeover rules group can't make a hostile bid for at least six months unless someone else does. day. news 24 hours a by nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. it has been a week of pressure for the u.s. dollar. san francisco fed president john williams says septembers fomc is in play for a rate move as are all meetings. that is just a few days after he made headlines by calling for a new type of central banking. fed fund futures point to high gods at under 50% -- to hike od ds at under 50% on the year.
let's turn to our guest. with me for the next half hour is michael dell. like, great to have you on the program. it has been quite a week. we had a lot of currency moves, said officials almost contradicting each other. mike: we think the fed are going to move this year. they are going to put one rate rise through, likely in december. the reason for that is we think you are starting to see wage pressures come through in the u.s. finally. now that unemployment is low, some people are concerned that if they don't move now, inflation could pick up and they would have to raise interest rates faster. i'm, i spent a lot of time rereading what john williams was proposing earlier this week. basically we are in a new normal and everything central banks have done so far hasn't done
much. he's almost arguing that we need to forget the inflation target or raise it to 3%. is that a good thing? mike: i think that is an issue for the long term. i don't think they are going to be raising the inflation target any time soon. that is more a theoretical framework they are discussing and thinking about for long-term plans. i don't think it would be a bad thing if they did raise the inflation target. we have superlow bond yields. a slightly higher target would allow countries around the world to gradually inflate away some of their debts. i don't think it would be the worst thing, but it is going to be a long time. francine: does it mean the fed would have to be really brave, because they would be the first ones to abandon what we have almost set in stone? mike: i think they just want to discuss it, but i think there's
a lot of issues involved. it would be a huge move. i think it would take them quite some time to really get comfortable with all the implications of that. francine: so what you are expecting is one fed hike in december and what happens after that? nothing until 2017 or 2018? mike: i think the market is a little too pessimistic. i don't think it is impossible that you get another two rate rises. francine: but they are so dovish. mike: now that unemployment, you saw the minutes recently suggesting they think the u.s. employment, that should start to put upward pressure on inflation. we think next time, there inflation will be pretty much at target. then they are running out of excuses. francine: you mention something, they are running out of excuses. has it felt like they are coming
up with excuses? .hey talked about brexit, china i know they want to wait until they see the whites of inflation, so they are waiting for that wage growth, but should they have already raised rates? mike: i think they should have. the fed are coming up with excuses. this is a very dovish fed. i think the u.s. economy is strong enough to withstand rate rises. the risk they mentioned in the minutes is by keeping rates this low, they risk inflating the sort of search for yield that makes people buy stuff at yields that don't make sense in the long term. crisis,ook at the last one of the key causes was that interest rates were too low for too long. that led to a big buildup in debt. you are not seeing that this time around, but you are seeing
people hunting for yields and certain securities being priced at a level which won't make sense if you take on a long-term view. francine: thank you so much, mike bell. someone else thinks u.s. rates will rise soon. amen often accused of keeping them too low for too long. in an interview with bloomberg, alan greenspan says future rate hikes could be rapid. stay with "the pulse." plenty coming up including india's economic future as the country considers who should be its next central bank governor. we look at the hopes and challenges facing the nation. plus, we bring you an exclusive interview with south africa's richest man and why he's buying british. and almost two weeks after the brexit vote, we will assess the u.k. economic outlook and look at the winners and losers so far. we will be joined by the ceo of heathrow. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: i'm francine lacqua in london. let's get to the bloomberg business flash with nejra cehic. nejra: viacom's ceo steps down according to people with knowledge of the matter. they said the company's board has approved an agreement ending a legal dispute between doormen and controlling shareholders. chief operating officer tom dooley will serve as interim ceo
and could take the role permanently. apple has it wrote locks in making major changes that would connect its watch to cellular networks. that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. the tech giant still plans to announce new watch models this autumn. islionaire paul tudor jones demanding that all his managers take more risk according to an investor letter obtained by bloomberg. it also said the legendary macro trader has boosted the amount of money he's mentioning -- managing. the moves are central to his shakeup of the business, which cut 15% of its staff. a spokesman declined to comment. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you. with me this morning's mike bell. taking -- we were listening to an era talk about tutor. are we taking too little risk?
he wants to take riskier bets. is that the basis of the next crisis? mike: i think this is the point in the cycle where you don't want to take extreme risk. you want towhich have large risk on is when the economy is in a bad lease, but just past the worst point. at thee unemployment is high level and is starting to come down. then you know you've got protracted time where the unemployment rate is going to fall steadily. risk assets generally go up. now that unemployment is very low, historically, that tends to mean you're not far away from the next recession. i think this is the time to be sort of scaling back some of those risks. francine: as an investor, you can't make money. mike: you need to balance the portfolio. ultimately, that type of fund that can take bets against the market has more of a place in portfolios at this point in the
cycle. you can be not just long equity and long bonds, but have something that can short the market to balance your portfolio. francine: hold that thought. the indian sovereign bonds rally hit a wall this week. that is as investors wait to find out who will become the new central bank chief. for more, our executive producer joins us from mumbai. good morning to you. who are the contenders to replace governor rajan? >> there are a bunch of them. it starts with the existing deputy governor patel who has been an instrumental part of the new structure. he'sr deputy governor -- also had significant experience in policymaking. you've got a bunch of names doing the rounds at this point in time, starting with the chief economic advisor, the vice-chairman of india's policymaking body, the former
chief economic advisor and chief .conomist at the world bank other than that, you have a couple bankers. the head of india's largest bank, all these names are doing the rounds. the markets have been waiting a while for that. what problems will his successor have to deal with? speculation reports that rajan had to step down because there was too much political meddling. >> i think the new governor will have two challenges, inflation and new delhi. you have seen a spike in consumer prices of late. managing inflation is going to be a primary task of the governor. the new governor is also going to be operating in an
environment where there is an inflation target. so it is going to be a new governor, a new environment for the governor to operate in. secondly, new delhi. governor rajan -- [indiscernible] there is a section of government that believe interest rates should have been cut much earlier and buy a larger magnitude. that is going to be interesting to watch. on one hand, you have the challenge of ensuring macroeconomic stability, ensuring inflation is under control, and that you are managing the expectations of new delhi. francine: thank you for the update. now let's get more thoughts from mike bell. india of course has its own set of problems. rajan was considered one of the best central bankers. how much is india different to
other emerging markets? mike: it is different in that it is one of the few emerging markets that we think is going to deliver extremely strong growth over the long term. it is one of the emerging markets where we are most positive over the next five to 10 years. the loss of rajab is huge for india. as long as his replacement comes in and maintains the same kind of regime he had been running, hopefully that will be ok. but he's definitely a loss. he's a guy that has been very positive for india. francine: what does a fahrenheit mean for emerging markets? mike: we think emerging markets can withstand one fed rate hike this year and the gradual pace we expect going forward. what becomes problematic for emerging markets in general is if the dollar strengthens meaningfully.
we've seen an inverse correlation between emerging markets relative performance to the rest of the world and the dollar. when the dollar goes up, emerging markets underperform. if the fed but interest rates up significantly faster, then that could cause dollar strength and weakness in the market. francine: we saw the taper tantrum two years ago. are they in better shape than they were then? it just depends on whether the fed flags it properly and whether they are in a stronger place to withstand a fed hike, so we don't see defaults. unfortunatelythat we are still in a position where a strong dollar is going to be bad for emerging markets. our view is that the dollar is unlikely to strengthen meaningfully from here. we don't think the fed are going to put through a very rapid increase in interest rates. it will be gradual. that shouldn't be too bad for
the emerging markets. the risk is that the dollar does strengthen meaningfully. the other thing is, commodity prices. poor,ommodity prices are that is bad for emerging markets. the other thing which works in favor of emerging markets is the growth differential with developed markets. markets11, emerging were strongly outperforming relative to developed markets. then that growth differential narrowed. what we think now is that growth differential will at least stabilize and you could see it start to go slightly faster. that could support emerging markets. francine: thank you so much, mike bell. up next, when the man who is building or buying pound land is not worried about brexit. an exclusive interview with south africa's richest man about why he's buying british.
francine: south africa's richest man is buying british. christo wiese is the chairman of the company's that we generally -- that recently purchased virgin active. bloomberg news spoke to him in an exclusive interview about prospects for business following the brexit referendum, opportunities in africa, and
global volatility concerns for businesses. christo: there are lots of things that everybody should be concerned about, the obvious one being this apparent split of terrorism, final and those him , the obviouslism disillusionment of the electorate in some countries with the so-called political elite. those are worrying factors. if you see what has happened in the u.k. with brexit, the possibility that there may be a president trump in the united states, or the problems that europe are experiencing, compared to what? we've got our set of difficulties with which i would much rather deal then with some of the others. happened to be in the u.k. a week or two after brexit. what was very impressive was in how short a space of time the
brits managed to steady the ship. new prime minister's, new ministers with apparently excellent credentials, and making the right noises. and the ship had steadied. we are looking at common inwledge, at acquisitions the pacific rim area. but virgin active is doing it. look as operations not in the u.k., but in france, in germany, and in china. the point i want to make, there is no anti-south african or african buyers. in fact, the very opposite. committedoup are very to south africa. we are afro optimists. we believe this country and in fact the continent both have a
great future. but it is africa. you have to get in tune with the rhythm and you have to understand that it is a marathon, not a sprint. francine: let's get some final thoughts from my guest, mike bell, j.p. morgan asset management global strategist. when you look at brexit, it seems that retail sales are good, everything is rosy, we are winning medals in rio, what brexit? mike: i think the fact that the u.k. economy seems to be holding up in the short-term doesn't give you a fair reflection of what is likely to come. if you look at the forward-looking indicators, the forward-looking indicators suggest the u.k. economy is likely to slow quite meaningfully. consumer confidence has fallen quite sharply. you see the service component with a new order's compartment of the service pmi has fallen
sharply. business confidence falling sharply. all these things suggest there's a pretty good chance of recession. francine: bad recession or lightweight? mike: likely relatively mild, but there's a fair chance you see two quarters of negative growth. there's a chance that maybe we just skirt along close to zero growth. u.k. equities actually have very little to do with the u.k. economy. you see that in the performance since brexit. 70 plus percent of revenues come from outside the u.k. the weak pound is helping the u.k. stock market. francine: thank you so much, mike bell, j.p. morgan asset management global market strategist. up next, our new show, "brexit: what's next." we speak to the heathrow ceo about what brexit means for his business. this is bloomberg. we will also talk about market movement.
francine: welcome to our weekly brexit show live from london. i'm francine lacqua. every friday we wrap up the news , analysis, and conversation that will make you smarter about what is next for britain. this is "brexit: what's next." first up, let's get to nejra cehic. nejra: u.k. inflation accelerated in the month after the brexit vote. consumer price growth picked up 0.6% from 0.5% a month earlier. import prices rose as the weak pound lead to the biggest jump in import costs since 2011. the u.k. jobs market showed resilience in the face of
brexit. 172,000 jobs in the second quarter and the unemployment rate held at 4.9%. jobless claims declined in july by 8600. u.k. retail sales unexpectedly surged in july. hot weather boosted sales of clothing and footwear. the drop in the pound encouraged tourists to snap up watches and jewelry. big investment banks with their european headquarters in london will start the process of moving jobs from the u.k. within weeks of the government triggering brexit. that timeline is faster than their public statements will imply. executive said to be assuming the u.k. will lose passporting rights and will need two years to set up in alternate locations. the financial services industry has reportedly given up hope of universal access to the single market. according to "the financial
times," the city is seeking a bespoke deal with similar but stronger ties than switzerland. the paper says representatives from the industry will present their brexit policy ideas to prime minister theresa may next month. day.l news 24 hours a i'm nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. it has been almost two months since the u.k. voted to leave the european union, but only this week that we've had concrete data on how the economy is performing. what about the corporate winners and losers? who better to ask than the chief executive of europe's biggest airport -- joining me, john holland-kaye, ceo of heathrow airport. you have some unique insight into how the economy has been performing through traveling. the weaker pound, you've seen passenger numbers up in the aftermath of brexit. john: we've been surprised by a
boost in traffic. we had a slight decline he for the vote. people were holding back. we've seen a boost after that. we have seen more passengers coming to the u.k. from outside because it is cheaper to come to the u.k., cheaper to buy a ticket. francine: this is tourists? do you have a time of year? john: summer is primarily tourism. he throws is unique in having more inbound than outbound tourism. francine: may be brexit would be different because you have more business people that want to understand what the hell is going on. john: maybe. maybe all those passengers who were holding back had to go and travel. too soon to tell whether that is just a blip or a long-term move. the u.k. is better value to money for overseas visitors and businesses. that might see more businesses choosing to invest in the u.k. as well.
francine: you have a breakdown of whether people booked later. something i was thinking about is, is it people saying there's brexit, pound is cheaper, i want to go to the u.k., or i was going to go to america -- but esh,use i less -- to marak but because i feel less certain about my security, i go to the u.k. john: it is hard to say quite why that was. it is not just about brexit. people are choosing to come to safe countries like the u.k. perhaps rather than european countries are they are a little put off by security issues. but the summer is very much about the holiday market. families coming and going on holiday. we will get a better sense in october and november when the business passengers come back and we will know whether people are still doing deals. he throws the main route between
europe and new york. francine: for now. john: business deals and fundraising drives a lot of activity. that is what drops off a little bit before the referendum. the question is, will that come back? francine: are you waiting? you were telling me that funding for heathrow has been easier to come by. john: what we did on ahead of the referendum, we made sure we were well-funded because of the uncertainty. we raised one billion pounds in bonds before the referendum. we typically need about one billion pounds of fundraising every year. we don't need to go back to the market. what we found since the referendum is that investors are looking into where they put their money and they want to invest in blue-chip investments like heathrow because they know. francine: despite brexit --
again, we are all trying to figure out what it means. if you are an international investor, how can you be certain that passengers at heathrow remain the same if we weren't to have an agreement on financial services or access to the single market? you could argue that london will be left in the dust 10 years from now. john: i think what investors look at is who are likely to be the winners. they see heathrow in particular among big infrastructure investments as being a winner. francine: compared to other airports in the u.k.? john: just within the airport sector. most european airports saw passenger numbers falling by 10% to 15% in 2008 when we had the big downturn. in the worst year, heathrow passenger boardings fell by 1.5%. we made that up again. that shows how resilient demand
is for heathrow. francine: this is pretty brexit. -- pre-brexit. we don't really know what happens next. john: but there is a flight to quality. we saw a bit of this with the last downturn in 2008 because people assumed that investors wouldn't want to put money into the u.s. the opposite happened. the u.s. was seen as a relatively safe haven. we're seeing the same thing happen in today's market in places like heathrow. we are able to raise funds at far less than we would have been able to raise funds at six months ago. we raised 500 million pounds just in the last two months. we could have raised over 1.5 billion pounds if we had chosen to. that shows how much appetite there is out there. it also shows, i think, that the
government policies to stimulate investment are starting to have an impact. francine: we will talk about security, expansion, the boe. we sometimes forget, most of our viewers travel so much through heathrow that it is almost like a big shopping mall. can you break down where you had the biggest money coming from? is it middle eastern, asia? you were telling me that you had some great sales figures in terms of the shops. john: this is not a surprise, since the referendum. we've seen sales in our shops, particularly the higher-end , we've the luxury shops seen sales up about 15%. francine: for july? john: yes. we've seen it in wdf as well, some of the more mainstream retailing. francine: that is direct pound impact, isn't it?
john: it is. people are choosing to buy in the u.k. because it is better value for money. whether they are doing that before they go home to overseas markets, even if they are u.k. passengers, it is cheaper for them to buy at heathrow than to wait to get to their destination. francine: not everything is duty-free. how do you choose? are flyinger you within the eu or outside of the eu, you still get a better price on the fast majority of things in the airport. the only things that doesn't apply to our things like boots and catering which are kept in line with the high street. you will always get value for money and very often a better value than the high street. francine: going back to what mark carney has done so far, in terms of fiscal spending, are you happy? have you spoken to the new government? things seem to have stabilized.
they were messier than expected in the weeks straightly after, but a stabilized. john: i think that is a very fair way of putting it. i think the speed with which the new administration came into place has been a real benefit. normal consumers, all of us see things as not really having changed. look at the economists. there's only one article on brexit in the economists. you would think this would be the main thing eagle would be talking about but we have very short term memories. consumers we might all be going out and spending more, as businesses, we are starting to think about the longer-term impact. francine: and we could see reversals quite quickly. we, like any other corporate, have a team thinking about what the impact of brexit will be.
we are hoping for the best but planning for the worst. we are tightening our belts, reducing operating costs, and if all corporate do that, that starts to become self-fulfilling. the government has an important part to play in building confidence in the economy. there is a clear economic plan for the u.k. in a post eu world. francine: there you go. you can take over the show. i want to talk about expansion. we're going to take a break. john holland-kaye stays with us. plenty coming up, including the conversation with john, and we talk about not only expansion, but things you were saying about confidence. then we talk oil. will opec deliver on the speculation hopes? then, in an interview with bloomberg radio, alan greenspan says future rate hikes could be rapid. don't miss that interview.
fixing it if of john holland-kaye. this has been going on for years. why do we not have a plan already? why has it not been chosen? john: we have a plan. we also has a policy which says heathrow is the right solution for the u.k. that was said by the airport commission that the government set up. we have all the facts now. heathrow is the right answer. francine: the mayor is against it. the current mayor and the previous mayor. john: they were, but the current mayor isn't necessarily against heathrow. there is huge support up and down the country, including in london, in our local communities, for heathrow expansion. francine: local communities that wouldn't be in the flight path? john: including those. our new plan is much better than the one that was rejected 10 years ago. we listened to local communities. we made sure that fewer i
people are impacted by noise. we will meet all air quality targets. it also creates jobs in the local community. 40,000 local jobs, skilled jobs, engineers, pilots, technicians. this is an opportunity to end youth unemployment. francine: if gatwick were to win, it is not you either expand or you don't. you either expand somewhere which wouldn't be polluting london so much, and wouldn't increase homes in london, so you would build the same jobs, just elsewhere. john: that is not the case. the commission were very clear. the benefits of expanding jobs as, up to 180,000 a result of heathrow expansion, four times as many as expanding gatwick. francine: why is that? john: because heathrow is a national project. what we do is make sure we connect all of the u.k.,
scotland, ireland, northern ireland, the north, to the growing markets of the world. we are a hub airport. we are the u.k.'s biggest port. 29% of exports go from heathrow. these are the vital trading links we have. expanding heathrow will help boost the economy and create manufacturing jobs across the country. francine: how does that fit with the brexit vote? there was a clear majority that are almost saying we don't want to be that global anymore. john: i don't think that was being said. for many people, it was about, we want to be a global player, not constrained by europe. we want to be trading with all the growing markets of the world. only each room will do that for us. francine: brexit was actually immigration. i know immigrants don't take
planes, but there was a sense that the country will be much more inward looking. john: i think that if you talk to politicians, their aim is to have a much more outward looking country. that is the point. if we are going to be a confident trading nation, we have to have links with all those growing markets. that is what only heathrow can deliver. francine: what if because of trade deals that put the u.k. in a less favorable position, we don't have the growth we are expecting? we would have a very expensive project which maybe won't be used. john: first of all, heathrow is fully privately funded investment. sovereign funds, pension funds committed to the u.k., a huge boost to the u.k. economy while we are building. tens of thousands of jobs across the country.
that will help solve the problem you are describing. this is a long-term project. this is about securing supply chain, trading routes. to fly huge demands through heathrow. i've got a list of over 30 airlines who want to come to heathrow. francine: despite brexit? because we don't know what it will look like, we have no idea what this country will become 10 years from now. john: it is true now. easyjet still want to come to heathrow. that will provide competition and choice to british airways. that will be good for passengers. that will help make it easier for people to get around the world. there is huge pent-up demand. people want to fly from heathrow. we have to take control of our destiny. we can't be victims and decide that we are going to be in decline. francine: the gatwick ceo would
say he's the right solution. have you spoken to theresa may? she was against heathrow expansion 10 years ago. do we know anything about her plans? john: nobody knows. we've already seen that she's a very independent person. she will want to look at all the facts. it will be until october before we get a decision from government. heathrow expansion delivers what this government needs, a positive plan that will make sure that britain remains one of the great trading nations of the world. only heathrow expansion can do that. francine: there will be push back against your rivals. security, how concerned are you and how much are you spending on it? john: we take security very seriously. safety and security is the most serious thing that we do. we try to stay ahead of the risks that we see around the world. we tend to have standards slightly higher than other airports in the world.
i can't talk too much about it, but we do take it very seriously. heathrow is a vital part of the u.k.'s economy and the global economy. that we keep confidence in heathrow, keep it safe and secure so we keep britain's trading links open. francine: come back soon. john holland-kaye, ceo of heathrow airport. up next, the battle over brexit. why these european leaders claim to hold a summit on warships. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: the battle over how to handle brexit has been taken to warships. angela merkel, friends fund, and matteo renzi are planning to hold a summit. let's go to rome. why meet on a warship? >> it is renzi who likes symbols. he had that news conference influence with merkel in front of the massive statue of michelangelo's david. this time, the symbol is a warship because this is the flagship which is heading up the european union's naval mission in the mediterranean to search and rescue for migrants and also to find the people smugglers. that is one of the huge challenges facing the eu and that is why renzi has invited them on board. francine: are they talking
brexit? >> francine: say again? francine: are they talking brexit? >> the are talking brexit. they are talking all the challenges facing the eu, including migration, including poor economic growth, foreign affairs with turkey, the deal on migration there a between turkey shaky,ece also looking lots of issues up for discussion. francine: any chance of concrete progress on how the eu can make a deal with the red lines, whether they can still have access to the single market or part of the single market if they don't allow immigration to resume with free borders? >> the government officials have in briefing us that the ball is in 10 downing street. they are still waiting to find out more about whether notifications triggering exit talks will be at the start of next year or later.
the red line by several officials, clearly that if there can be no cherry picking, that phrase of merkel, on access to the single market. if britain wants access to the single market, it will have to accept other conditions on free movement of people and labor. francine: thank you so much. stay with us. "surveillance" will be next. john king will be joint -- tom keene will be joining me. this is a picture of the markets. interesting day. not much going on. oil trading above $48 a barrel. the dollar paring its loss for the week as stocks decline in europe and asia. the stoxx 600 down 0.7%. this is a picture for yen. also, south korea's won sliding to this month's low.
♪ francine: a september rate hike in play. we will look for clues in jackson hole next week. speculation is growing that major crude oil producers may act to increase export. and chinese lenders are being left and the dark about state enterprises. will a compromise china's economic reforms? this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua