Skip to main content

tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  October 3, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT

4:00 pm
from the closing bell. stocks and bonds falling after expansion bolstered bets the federal reserve will raise rates this year. i am scarlet fu. matt: and i matt miller. scarlet: the s&p 500 retreats after posting a three-week rally. matt: the question is, "what'd you miss?" scarlet: u.s. auto sales surprised in september coming in stronger than estimated. is there more room to grow after a record 2015? matt: the g.o.p. is wondering if a turnaround is possible for donald trump after a rough week. scarlet: our guest says canada is in a housing bubble with no chance of a soft landing. ofspeak with the author "surviving the canadian real estate crash." a muted start to the first day of october, the first day of the
4:01 pm
fourth quarter. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq off by .2% to .3%. a huge drop-off in the 20-day average. matt: not a lot of movement. not a lot of training. it is rosh hashanah today. there are a number of global markets closed today. not a lot of trading. we don't see as much action in the market. we do see a lot of individual stock stories. cars are the one i am focused on today because we had numbers out that were in line with estimates or beat estimates. the interesting thing is they still missed last year's numbers by a lot. ford has september sales down eight point 1% -- 8.1% from last september. last september was fantastic. in-line or better for all companies. general motors is up almost 1%.
4:02 pm
fiat chrysler is up almost 1%. that in addition to moves in the banks check that were interesting, wells fargo hit a 52-week low. massachusetts said it was going to investigate morgan stanley for cross-selling practices as well. morgan stanley does not take a huge hit on the news but is down with the rest of the market. wells fargo falling to a 52-week low. scarlet: bonds moving in the same direction as stocks. they declined also. you are seeing yields move up across maturities. new orders, reduction both showing expansion boosting the odds of a december rate increase to about 60%. the two-your yield the highest in more than a week. in europe, a lot of last-minute selling an italian bonds over concern of long-term supply. the treasury announcing plans to sell its first ever 50-year
4:03 pm
bond. it follows countries like belgium and spain taking advantage of low interest rates to issue superlong bonds. matt: i want to talk about commodities. scarlet: let me get to the british pound because this was interesting. matt: it was a market mover. scarlet: it tested the low from early july. theresa may says she will begin the process of exiting the e.u. in the first quarter of next year. investors have concluded this means the u.k. is headed for a the company meaning would prioritize regaining control of borders and give apple access to the e.u. -- give up access to the e.u. single market. that will mean a fresh 30-year low. the colombian peso fell the most against the dollar in three weeks after the vote to reject the peace deal. investors saw this as a sign the government will have a hard time delivering on key tax reforms to keep the investment-grade credit rating if it could not get the
4:04 pm
vote to the desired outcome, what happens to the tax reforms? matt: i want to talk about oil. last week, the opec accord moved the market. we saw a little bit of bouncing on friday. we see it coming back up now. oil up about .9% at 48.66. i also wanted to show you the bloomberg. what i have done is you can choose any number of time periods. let's look at how the last quarter ended. losers,s the biggest down 129% over the last year. you see the biggest winners. zinc, sugar, and sleeping oil. interesting to look at the commodity moves. you can look at them all different ways. scarlet: nice job.
4:05 pm
dive, i'm deep looking at medals, specifically the index of six metals. it shows it is back into bull market territory. they have been in a slump since the start of 2013. they have declined about 44% from early 2013 through january of this year. since then, this green line, it has rallied more than 20% meaning it entered a bull market. you have an improving outlook for china's economy. china is a top consumer of these metals. zinc was the beneficiary of a global shortage. nickel on friday had been surging after eight mining crackdown in the philippines that led to the closure of 20 mines and more in the coming months. matt: interesting to look at. one of the companies that uses a lot of the metals is tesla.
4:06 pm
i was talking about tesla a lot with abigail doolittle at the nasdaq. one of the -- the story is tesla came out with deliveries that were in line or slightly better than estimated and stuck to their forecast for the full half. they will sell 50,000 cars. this is a measure dan curtis put together. it shows produced vehicles minus sold vehicles. when it is positive, when the white columns rise, that means they have some inventory to sell. the blue line is the finished goods inventory. one of the concerns is they cannot produce cars fast enough to fill customer demand. it looks like they are doing better in the last reporting quarter. modelse building enough so you don't have to wait a year to get it. scarlet: we will be discussing
4:07 pm
autos and the incredible september they had. i want to bring in kaite stockton, the chief strategist. as we begin the fourth quarter, give us a sense of which asset class is leading the others and tell us what that indicates about how much conviction there is across the markets? >> you have to look at equity markets first. in the u.s., we have seen some leadership. it does seem to be shifting more internationally. we are seeing rotation into european equities and some of the asian markets i think is compelling. equities have been a source of leadership globally among asset classes. treasuries as well and also commodities. you have strength just about everywhere. you have a lot to choose from in terms of investing. crude oil recently has broken out above the short-term resistance level so you seeing signs of life there. matt: what do you make of the
4:08 pm
seasonal moves? scarlet was talking about how in october there are more swings. we know september and october tend to be difficult months for the market. i have the seasonality chart that has a lot of information. this shows you month by month which years have seen the best -- or which month have seen the best performance. october is fairly green. september is fairly red. what do you think about seasonality? >> it is important. it is not something you want to use to make investment decisions but having an awareness of it is important. september is known as one of the worst months on average for the major indices. we got through it pretty well. we closed just below flat for the s&p 500 index. it did capture a pullback but also a nice rebound. that is a good thing. october has more positive
4:09 pm
seasonal influences and yet it also tends to capture some of the downside volatility at times. scarlet: you can get a lot of movement before it starts to finish up. let's talk about sector rotation. i have relative rotation graphs. it shows technology in the leading quadrant, the leading sector. it is the only leading sector. actually, financials just moved in from improving to leading. you see opportunities in health care, but that is in the lagging quadrant. why is that? theefensive sectors -- offense of sectors have exhibited leadership since the brexit low. we have noted spots of strength and health care and other sectors that are showing some signs of life. small-cap biotech are showing signs of life in the broader
4:10 pm
health care sectors. it would not be the more defensive areas like pharma. scarlet: energy, tech, and utilities were the best performers and only gainers in september. what is that indicate about how willing people are to take on risk right now? >> it reveals how macro driven the tape is now. energy prices. people are paying attention to yields. it is good to show how important it is to have your finger on the pulse of those trends. matt: if we see i.t. and financials leading, is that a good sign for the market? >> i think so. you see a greater appetite for risk. they set up to outperform also in q4. i think that tends to be a good thing for the broader market when you look at the ratios versus the major industries -- embassies and their trajectories. backve noticed rotation
4:11 pm
into growth from value. we are seeing rotation back into growth. i think it all goes hand in hand. matt: i have this up to look at the last quarter. you can see utilities, telecoms, and consumer staples were the worst performers. those are the defensive sectors you would go to if you were terrified. is that also good news? >> i think so in a way. it shows sentiment is in the right place for the market to go higher. those sectors got oversold on a relative basis. some are stabilizing in the near term. i would view that as temporary and favor the more overextended areas of the market. a lot of them have seen fresh breakouts. that is compelling to me. scarlet: let's talk about oil. it is stalling after the opec rally. $50 appears to be a ceiling for brent.
4:12 pm
how likely we will get there before opec's november 30 meeting in vienna? is that a target we are looking at? >> i would say it is highly likely. $50 is psychologically significant. it is also resistant based on a couple of models traders focus on. it looks surmountable because you have seen the short-term breakout already, because you have seen momentum improved from a longer-term perspective. the key is these asset have seen a turnaround this year beyond crude oil. the have seen a reversal already in natural gas, gold prices. the reversals we are seeing are fairly lasting. matt: thanks so much for joining us. appreciate your input. scarlet: coming up, maybe the six-year boom in u.s. auto sales is not over yet. we will have more on the carmakers. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:13 pm
4:14 pm
4:15 pm
mark: i am mark crumpton. hillary clinton pouncing on a report donald trump had a net loss of more than $915 million in 1995. mayton says it means trump not have paid a dime in federal income taxes for nearly two decades. during a speech in ohio, she also blasted wall street. hillary clinton: it is outrageous that eight years after a cowboy culture on wall street wrecked our economy, we are still seeing powerful bankers playing fast and loose with the law. claims from the trump campaign he is a business
4:16 pm
genius, hillary clinton quipped, what kind of genius loses $1 billion in a year? donald trump leads hillary clinton in ohio but she tops him 46/41% in florida according to new polls. in pennsylvania, clinton edges trump 45/41%. in north carolina, 46/43%. all the surveys included the libertarian candidate and the green party candidate except north carolina because jill stein is not on the ballot. johnson had his best showing in the tar heel state with 7%. the supreme court has turned away james whitey bulger's appeal. the justices without comment left in place his convictions for playing a role in 11 murders and many other crimes. the 87-year-old former organized crime boss was a fugitive for 17 years until his arrest in 2011.
4:17 pm
a jury convicted him in 2013. syrian activists say warplanes have again targeted one of the largest emergency hospitals in the rebel held part of aleppo. the syrian/american medical society says a-bomb punched a crater at the hospital's front interest. at least three maintenance workers were killed. officials say the hospital has been targeted twice in the last week. the nobel prize in medicine has gone to a japanese biologist. he was honored for his work on how cells recycle content. as beingss is known involved in several conditions including cancer and neurological disease. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 country. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. matt: "what'd you miss?"
4:18 pm
u.s. sales figures for september trickling out all day today. by early accounts, it has been a solid month relevant to analyst estimates. did i say that right? relative. of the u.s. automakers, gl and for posted the kleins for the month but beat or met analyst estimates. you still see a bright spot. sales fell. let's bring jamie butters. he reports about cars for us from detroit. everyone has been saying how great this month was and we see a positive reaction from investors. they are buying shares of ford and g.m.. but really it is a drop year-over-year for most of the carmakers. is.t
4:19 pm
last year at this time, things were going fine. sales were up a little. a solid six straight year of sales gains. and then they went nuts. september, october, november, three straight months. the year at the best ever. we have never seen a streak like that. we are coming up against those comparisons now. coming into this month, people thought 17.5%. kind of split the difference at 17.8 which is considerably better than estimates which is what drives the stock. it is down from a year ago. it will be touch and go whether we get another record this year. matt: last year was fantastic is what you are saying. it will be tough to get to that level. one thing i noticed in your story this morning is i saw f
4:20 pm
-series and silverado sales were down. if pickup sales are down, is that a bad sign? itif they are down broadly, is a bad sign for profitability. what we saw last month was an aggressive play by fiat chrysler, particularly the ram brand. they were way up. chrysler,k at fiat one of the big winners of the month, all of their brands were down except ram trucks. they were doing 20% off across much of the country, especially in the midwest, pushing that hard trying to get a strong model your changeover. if you were a shopper on the fence, you were going with a big deals from dodge ram. before car sales took off, i remember every time we had decent numbers we had to ask about fleet sales which are not
4:21 pm
good for margins. the debt play a big role in the september numbers? probably more the unwinding from that. down but not as much as expected. they continue to reduce fleet sales. individual sales were up for the month. lot fleet sales were down a but retail sales were down only a little. fleetavy reliance on the bodes ill for profitability. g.m. has been working on dialing that that for a couple of years. last year, ford said we got a lot of fleet business and then there is going to be paid back. and that is what we are seeing now. they are managing through it well and their shares are up a little. the bestit looks like
4:22 pm
days of august sales are behind us, last year being such an incredible year. to what extent are the executives acknowledging that when you speak with them and cover their financials? foreseeing aem are plateau. traditionally, we think of the boom and bust of the auto cycle that has been a traditional part of the way the economy works. things go great and get overheated and collapse. sawr this recession, we capacity being added slowly. we saw consumers coming back slowly. but we got nice, steady growth. last year, we got ahead of the pace. the assumption was it will level off. it is possible last year pulled ahead some of this year's growth. it depends on what the economy does going forward. everyone feels the economy has to contract at some point and they don't want to guess wrong.
4:23 pm
you don't want to assume it will grow 3% forever. but we wish her like to see 3%. they are saying there is room to grow if the economy gets growing. if not, everybody makes money as long as they are not stupid. matt: the new silverado and sierra came out, the new mustang and camaro came out. it will be a while until we get an incredible growth curve like that in new introductions. thanks so much, jamie butters, covering the story for us from the motor city. scarlet: coming up, we look at how frequent infrastructure and development is mentioned in bloomberg articles. the chart you cannot miss, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:24 pm
4:25 pm
4:26 pm
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" the number of times infrastructure is mentioned in bloomberg articles. you can see the frequency this term is mentioned. there is an upswing in the frequency with which it is mentioned and there are some spikes as to how frequently it does pop up. the head of u.s. equity and quantitative strategy at bank of america merrill lynch says the market is poised to be disappointed. she ran this function and said everyone is expecting fiscal stimulus and expectations have gotten ahead of themselves as evidenced by the number of times it appears in stories. perhaps we will see disappointment as a result. matt: that is one of my favorites because you can track so many things.
4:27 pm
what istrack so much of on the front of people's minds. i wanted to talk about the pound because the drop after theresa by marchon of brexit of next year affected markets globally today. you can see the pound index. the bloomberg pound index measured against seven different currencies. it is trade and liquidity waited. it is a great measure in blue, the strength or weakness of the pound. in white, you can see the manufacturing numbers. they have recovered since the brexit vote. it is interesting while the economy does not look terrible in real terms now, surveys are different, the pound continues to get weaker which can only be good for producers there. scarlet: we have much more
4:28 pm
coming up on "what'd you miss?" canada joins the fight to tame soaring prices. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:29 pm
hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business.
4:30 pm
mark: i am mark crumpton. the state department says the u.s. is walking away from talks with russia to stop the bombing in syria. officials cite the failure of the cease-fire. >> it is disingenuous of russia to fight the united states threat to strategic facility of the reason for the decision. the united states seeks a constructive dialogue with russia. russia continues to engage in destabilizing activities and to suspend cooperation under existing agreements that benefit international security.
4:31 pm
mark: the russian news agency says the u.s. failed to carry out its promises and syria. the supreme court rejected an appeal from the washington redskins who had appealed a government decision to cancel its trademarks over concerns the name disparages native americans. in a separate case, the justices will decide whether the affects thew amendment. the team wanted both cases heard together. hillary clinton has received an endorsement from lebron james. he says secretary clinton is a champion for children. the cleveland cavaliers star says clinton is running on a message of hope and unity that needed to address violence in black communities. he detailed his support for clinton in opinion pieces. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over
4:32 pm
120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. it was the first trading day of october and the first quarter. some declines for the s&p, dow, nasdaq. bonds also moved lower so we got a higher yield. matt: today, we had the 10-year yield up and stocks down. friday, we have the 10-year yield down and stocks down. it was an anomaly. normally, we expect stocks move in the same direction. you get out of risky equities and into safe bonds or vice versa. scarlet: it was a quiet day because germany was closed for trading. no trading in deutsche bank shares in germany. in the u.s., he did close down by $.11 after surging 14% on friday. in the u.s., the sectors that gained not really noteworthy.
4:33 pm
just marginally higher on the day. we were talking about this with katie stockton. you see telecom coming back up because it performed so poorly. attempt to rein in housing prices. years of high prices have drawn warnings the nation's two most instances -- expensive markets may present a risk to the financial system. earlier today, the finance minister announced new measures to mitigate risk, tightening mortgage a logo judy -- eligibility and closing a tax loophole. .oining us is hilliard macbeth also with us is luke. thanks so much for coming in. warning a real serious
4:34 pm
that we are looking at a bubble in canada and that it will burst and that it will cause financial crisis. >> yes. it is a major bubble. it is three times a house prices from 15 years ago, which as far as i can tell never happens. you experienced that in the united states with the bubble. the bubble in canada is bigger. along with that is the personal debt level. and private sector debt, we are at 200% of gdp. there are only five countries in the world that have that ratio. that is a big warning sign for a financial crisis. scarlet: that is something people have been warning about for a while. when it comes to canadian real estate, there is toronto, vancouver, and everybody else. you have inflated prices in those cities.
4:35 pm
>> you don't see the same level of home price appreciation now. some economists would argue just because the rate has moderated, the stock is still at a high level. that is one thing catching people off guard. these are not targeted measure to cool toronto and vancouver the way the last change was. on the mortgage rules, it will affect the provision of credit across the board. not: were expecting more targeted measures. is that possible? >> i don't think so. , think when they got into it they realized they had to do it on a broader basis. smallmeasures are fairly steps although it is significant. it is different in canada. the only get your fixed rate for five years in canada. in the u.s., it is for the whole 30 years. the qualification now will be
4:36 pm
based on a much higher interest rate. a young couple with $100,000 in qualifying only be for a $500,000 mortgage. that will make it difficult for them to buy a house. house prices have increased everywhere in canada from a lower base. in alberta, house prices have tripled as well and in calgary over 15 years. matt: a longer-term view. it is unfortunate for young people who want to buy a bigger house for in a nicer neighborhood. that has to take some of the demand out of the equation. that has to help to deflate. isn't it possible we could see the housing bubble deflate in a positive way? >> i always get asked about the possibility of a soft landing. first of all, jimmy graham
4:37 pm
ntham has investigated 28 bubbles. he did not find a single one that had a soft landing. the tripling of house prices when wages are only up 20%, it would take decades of flat house prices to get back to where the ratio was in line. the problem with decades is we usually have a recession every six or seven years or sooner. when the next recession comes, the opportunity for a soft landing will be removed. that is the issue. >> we talk about possible triggers for this canadian bubble bursting. you did not write this book yesterday. we have the possibility of importing higher rates from the u.s. and now we have the government getting involved with the markets, possibly at a later stage in the housing boom. when you write these triggers, -- when you rank these
4:38 pm
triggers, what do you see? >> alberta is 20% of the canadian gp with 11% of the population. with recession, people get laid off. a young couple with double incomes, one gets laid off, there is a divorce. it only takes five or 10% of the houses to get into difficulty as you discovered in the united states and it drives all the house prices down. i think recession is the most likely thing to happen. if banks discover they were lending to people that cannot pay the money back and change who they went to, that could be a trigger. that could start the process today with the changes in the rules. scarlet: the institute suggested canada should build a fund to cover taxpayer losses of up to $9 billion canadian which the government could tap in case of mass defaults. is that feasible? >> it is unique in the world. this is where lenders can lend as much money as they want to as
4:39 pm
many people as they want that don't have to be well-qualified. you could almost call it subprime, except in canada we are not allowed to call it that. it ensures the mortgage for the lender. that is the thing that keeps it going. were to get into trouble, there's $5 billion of mortgages insured so the numbers would be much bigger than $9 billion. in the $50 billion range. matt: what is the biggest risk? look safe canada --what could save canada? >> is donald trump gets elected, people say they will move to canada. that would probably be it. matt: we will talk about that later. thanks so much for joining us. macbeth and luke kawa. scarlet: we do have breaking
4:40 pm
news. donald trump speaking right now at a campaign event. he says he has only used u.s. tax laws. he is not respond to the story about the way he filed his taxes and recorded a huge loss in 1995. matt: $916 million. if anyone had that loss, it would be a good idea to take the loss and divert all the taxes you would pay for the next 18 years, which is what the "new york times" alleges. he says he understands the complex tax code, trying to spin this into he's a good businessman and that is why he did this. the clinton campaign is going to spin it the other way. they will say he did not pay any taxes. the cuban has said that is most important thing a wealthy person can do other than serving
4:41 pm
in the military as far as patriotic duty. we will continue to cover this and talk about it later in the program. scarlet: donald trump's is the news media is obsessed with one tax filing of his. matt: that is the only one we have seen. scarlet: there you go. coming up, is donald trump running out of time? we will take stock of what some are calling the worst week of his campaign. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:42 pm
4:43 pm
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. it is time for a look at the biggest is the stories in the news. dow chemical and upon face -- dupont facing new deadline on the merger. the e.u. says it has received unspecified data.
4:44 pm
dow/dupont is embroiled in an extended probe by the e.u. over concerns the combination may reduce competition. offering to buy back bonds as part of a plan to reduce debt. the company offered to buy notes in 2018 and 2019. the cash offer expires at the end of the month. offered torio tinto repurchase as much as $3 billion of its bonds. retailers are dangling perks like higher pay and a good discount to lure holiday workers in a tighter market. macy's and target are holding their first nationwide recruitment. some are making it easier to apply for holiday jobs through mobile devices. hat is your bloomberg business flash. matt: republicans are wondering
4:45 pm
if donald trump can recover from what one strategist is calling the worst week in presidential history for any candidate. it all began with the way the criticized debate performance and comminuted in a bombshell report trump could have avoided pain federal taxes for 18 years. let's go to alex wayne in washington. i am sure you have seen moments ago headlines from donald trump where he says he used the tax code brilliantly and he knows the complex u.s. tax code, trying to spin this in a way that makes him look like a business savvy user of the u.s. tax code. >> i think speaking of bubbles, we might be witnessing the puncturing of the trump bubble now. he defended his use of the tax code, sort of the same thing as debate night when he said he was smart. matt: don't you think the debate was more damaging because it was
4:46 pm
a lot of people said he clearly lost that debate. he did not seem prepared. he did not take advantage of a lot of things he could have. the tax code, anybody with a $900 million loss is going to file that as long as possible. right? >> sure. this report on his use of the tax code is more significant for the sheer news he posted a $915 billion loss in a year. that was probably accumulated over several years, but it undermines his argument he is a successful businessman. scarlet: donald trump also said during the rally in colorado the news media is accessed with one tax filing. he is referring to the 1995 return. is that the case? do voters care about his tax returns? do undecided voters still trying to figure out whether they will support hillary clinton or donald trump, is it going to
4:47 pm
depend on what he says about his tax returns? >> there has been a little bit of pulling on this question. it has shown the majority of americans inc. he should release his tax returns. i don't know that is a deciding factor in the election. his strongest supporters don't seem to care and they believe his argument there is not much to be learned from tax returns. matt: are there voters on the fence between clinton and trump at all? are there voters saying i'm going to vote for jill stein or hillary clinton, or donald trump or johnson? people not seem like would be swayed to vote for one or the other in the last couple of weeks. >> people who live inside the beltway like me are sort of flabbergasted there could be undecided voters somewhere in the country in any campaign, but especially in this one. polls show they're still around 10% of voters who have not made up their mind yet.
4:48 pm
scarlet: this sets us up for an interesting second debate. there is going to be the vice presidential debate tomorrow night. how many people are likely to tune in given you don't have very engaging speakers? it is not going to cause fireworks like the clinton/trump debate did last week. >> that is harsh on tim kaine and mike pence. i think you are right. i don't think in the history of vice presidential debates it has ever turned the direction of a campaign. i don't think this will. both are good at articulating points of view. mike pence used to be a radio talkshow host so i expect them to do well tomorrow night, probably better than his boss. i think it will be an interesting debate on a policy level. viewers might find it less exciting than last monday. matt: i keep wondering this every week. every week, i i am answered with
4:49 pm
a no. is there anyway donald trump will start listening to his advisors and stop sending tweets at 3:00 in the morning? >> i sort of wondered when i saw that friday. i sort of imagined being in the shoes of kellyanne conway and waking up friday morning to learn your candidate started tweeting at 3:00 in the morning about miss universe. it does not seem like it. someone told our reporter he cannot be managed. i think donald trump will continuing doing what he wants to do. scarlet: there is a new bloomberg poll that shows clinton and trump are neck-and-neck. they each have 46% of the votes, actually 46/45%. what was momentum before the debate? how did that shift? >> north carolina was headed trump's way before the debate. that is a big change actually.
4:50 pm
the clinton campaign is pouring a lot of resources into north carolina. they just cut a nasty ad on trump's taxes i expect we will see in north carolina over the next few weeks. matt: thanks a lot. definitely an interesting time to be doing your job. appreciate your time. be sure to watch our special coverage of the vice presidential debate in farmville, virginia. that starts at 8:30 p.m. right here on bloomberg. scarlet: british prime minister theresa may says she will trigger article 50 two start the brexit process by the end of march. are we looking at a hard brexit? this is bloomberg. ♪
4:51 pm
4:52 pm
4:53 pm
scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" theresa may says she would trigger the process to leave the e.u. by the end of march. it is the first glimpse of a timetable for the divorce between great britain and its largest trading partner. economist foral unicredit says there are far too many unknown risks of brexit. >> european making system has lots of problems. georgia stock -- deutsche bank has a specific time. that will be resolved one way or the other. down the line, the thing people are not focused enough on in my opinion is the brexit. it does not look good. >> hard brexit is a term that has evolved in the last couple of months. what does it mean and what is the potential of it happening? >> hard brexit means they cannot square the circle between may's
4:54 pm
insistence on controlling immigration and keeping access to the single market. hold,t equation does not and it increasingly looks like they cares because more about immigration, the u.k. would go into a deputy of thing -- wto thing with bigger tariffs. this is big stuff. pound fall offe today. out ams of volatility year, it has not picked up. it seems the risk is not factored into the market. >> i think that is right. with the surprise of the outcome of the referendum, you saw big moves in sterling. it came back but is trading weaker than before. life goes on. you live in london, you go shopping and do your thing. if anything, the pound is cheaper though it is cheaper for
4:55 pm
tourists. my point is the fixed investment will be hurt. we saw it last week. ahead of nissan said women doing any investment at the factory because we don't know what the system will be. these are guys that produce 40,000 cars a year all sold on the continent. they will be facing 10% tariffs. big story. >> is it possible the markets are sophisticated enough to say theresa may is in negotiation and is taking a position in the negotiation? the most important thing is the passport, she gives up negotiating power. does the market say we have to wait and see how this plays out? >> i think that is a fair possibility. she is probably trying to do this. immigration in britain is not the same issue as on the continent. in britain, it is all about
4:56 pm
romanian workers. that is a non-issue in germany and others where it is about the middle east. i cannot see politically how you make that compromise. matt: that was unicredit global chief economist. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. this is bloomberg. ♪
4:57 pm
4:58 pm
scarlet: u.s. stocks bell and the first trading day of october and the fourth quarter. volume below average with a lot of markets closed. tomorrow, due out at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. at a morenew york humane 9:45 a.m. scarlet: tomorrow night, the vice presidential debate airs at 9:00 eastern time.
4:59 pm
matt: remember how important that is. they are the second most powerful people in case something happens to the first. scarlet: that is all for "what'd you miss?" thank you
5:00 pm
john: news cycles between now and election day re: commodity.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on