tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg November 1, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
vonnie: we are going to take you from new york to london and stories out of japan, washington, and chicago. month onbled last mounting concerns that global central banks were preparing to reduce stimulus and inflation is accelerating. will november yield a better run for securities? mark: earnings at bp and shell, why a key acquisition helped boost earnings for shell and can bp snap nine consecutive quarters of losses? vonnie: a deal to put two of the together.s. newspapers has failed. trunk goes it alone. about 19 minutes into the trading day in u.s. -- 90
minutes into the trading day in the u.s.. julie: things are looking a little bit worse than one hour ago. we have negative buys and stocks are relatively unchanged, but you can see the trajectory going lower. it is more easily seen if you look at the futures so you can see the rolling over that we saw going into the open into the cash trading session we bounced a little -- cash trading session. and weced a little lower have seen yields had higher. the manufacturing data coming in slightly ahead of estimates and we globally have a little bit of a bounce in yields today as chinese manufacturing data, better than estimated. we have selling of bonds globally. bloombergp on the shows out dish chose how this is playing out on stocks because
groups like utilities and telecoms had relief yesterday as yields went down. now that yields are backup the stocks are back down. that is what is pulling the stocks overall lower. some of the individual movers include coach and some of the other luxury makers. coach up almost 5%. they forecasted sales will gain despite a tough environment this year. coach has been trying to undergo a turnaround, cutting some of it ifrchandise, paring you will. michael cores gaining a little bit, early 3%. we are also watching the automakers as they come out with u.s. sales figures for last month. general motors, even though sales fell it is better than the 6.9% decline that was estimated. ford has delayed their numbers after a fire at headquarters
that affected its data center operations. fiat chrysler seeing a little bit of a left as well even though overall we did likely see industrywide auto sales fall in october. mark: let's get a look at the stoxx 600. we are down for the seventh consecutive day, the longest losing stretch since february. that is the run of losses. we just came off a two-month decline and the benchmark gauge in europe, which was the wrist run -- worst run since february. i want to show you a chart on the yen. 4681 is the chart on the g. boj met today, did not do anything, pushed back there inflation goal. this is a great chart showing the extensive swings in the end after boj meetings. you will see today the swing was
very short. look how much the yen reacted after meetings earlier this year. sometimes the boj did something, mostly they disappointed hence you saw big moves in the dollar-yen. we saw a change in that today. as expected, the boj sat on its hands after the big change in policy we saw in september. that will be some relief to some currency investors. the big data point today was china manufacturing pmi, the strongest in a couple of years, and it bodes well for industrial metals. they are the biggest user of copper, nickel, and zinc. the factory gauge is the highest since july 2014. this is the factory gauge, the white line versus the london metal exchange metals index which is a gauge of six metals, which is the blue line.
as you can see they pretty closely track each other, and the lme ask index rose on monday for the sixth consecutive day, the longest stretch since march and is now rising to the highest level since july 2015. i love these charts that show correlation between two indices. this is a chart that shows the big selloff we saw in global bonds in october, the biggest selloff in the bloomberg barclays aggregate index since 2014, falling 2.8%. on an annual basis in 2016, this gauge is on track for its best performance in 10 years. , itith all things in life depends on whether you look at it in the short-term or long-term. vonnie: our next guest is going to have a lot to say. courtney donohoe has more from our newsroom.
courtney: a new nationwide poll has donald trump pulling into the lead over hillary clinton. in the new poll completed 46% to 45%, the first time since may. u.s. attorney general loretta lynch has said to still have confidence in fbi director james, -- james comey who has come under fire for announcing reopening the investigation into hillary clinton's e-mails. iraqi troops are reporting progress and the operation against islamic state that began two weeks ago. andrew: forces battling islamic state have reached the outskirts of the city of most so -- mosul. they were backed by u.s. lead airpower and preparing for final
assault on the city which has -- held for two years by islamic state. shown its jina has 20 storm fighter to the public for the first time, performing a bunch of maneuvers in an air show. american defense officials say china wants to use stealth technology to turn its air force into one that can adopt defensive and offensive operations. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. donohoe.tney this is bloomberg. get back to the worldwide slump in government bonds as i was just showing you. it is so good we are going to show it to you twice. global bonds lost about 3% last month according to our aggregate index, taking october the worst month since september 2014. joining us is john roe, head of
of more than ads trillion dollars in assets. what is driving this uptick in bond yields and how much further has it got to run? does, and features, in the u.s. it is inflation rising, increasing belief there will be a rate hike in december, and that is a great story. developed market countries have had it very difficult to generate inflation and get toward target. if you look at forward inflation expectations in the u.s., they are only about 20 -- .2% below. europe, andapan and japan we think the change to yield shaped targeting is the first step toward tapering. we do not believe they can keep going and ¥80 trillion and they are buying less beyond five years and have not changed their targets earlier. it suggests this is the
beginning of the end of abenomics, or in some ways the end of the end. he came in, and 2012 and inflation is 0%. gdp growth was 8% for, the same as the previous decade, and we're at the end and effectively odaroded is staying on kur is saying on the fiscal side, we are done. mark: are we at the limit for the ecb? how much further can they push on the monetary loosening tray? john: they are in a very similar position. it is about political will and it is the creditors. japan is a creditor country and germany as a creditor nation, and they are very sensitive to any further action. there is still a long way below the inflation target and it
would take them longer and longer to actually reach that target. mark: they do not abandon the goal, do they? john: now you stretch it out. governor kuroda is putting it markd his own term and carney is putting brexit be on his own term. they bring out the forecast for future inflation in march and if they bring it out in december this year, i guess in the hope a can sustain the believe they are pretending to get toward the target. vonnie: do you see any reason to disbelieve the statement that yesterday guests made from hsbc saying we are going to have negative rates around the world for five to 10 years? john: i think around the world is a bit tough. you have got emerging markets and an inflation problem. if you focus on the developed markets it is really the u.s. against the rest of the world kind of story.
in europe and japan, it is very much going to continue with negative rates until such time as we have another shock, and it really will be the beginning of the end of the end for both those regions. the u.s., they will be able to raise rates to some degree. the problem they will have is as their bond yields diverge you get strengthening of the dollar. you get both of those defects that cause monetary tightening. we think a 3% strengthening on the u.s. dollar is about the same as a rate hike, so they will not get as many in if it were not for the problems other areas are having. ?onnie: what exactly happened last year we got the rate increase and it looked like everything was on track and the u.s. economy was growing. suddenly we have this meh economy the past couple of months and we are not sure how healthy it is here. u.s. it was around
february when janet yellen referred to the problems around the rest of the world and reflected on the fact that they needed to take into account the effect on emerging markets, and push out rate hikes. the key story has been the slack left in the u.s. labor market and therefore the labor -- wage pressure is not coming. we tend to agree with her. we think increased or dissipation can add around -- participation can add around 100,000 to payrolls, allowing around 150,000 per month before they run out of room and have to focus more on rate hikes. mark: i have got two charts and one question. i am going to show you the charts and have part one and part two of the question. this is the two 10 year yield spread, more than 100 points the first time since may. two?that widen past u.k. gilt, worst month since
2009 so the big shoot up in yield. does the spread widen in the u.s. and have we seen the lows for the u.k. 10 year yield? john: the u.s. could widen a bit more but we think it will struggle to get back to the levels at the start of the year. the reason of that is that with low yields everywhere you will see a rush into u.s. treasuries and you get the strengthening of the dollar, which acts as another form of monetary tightening which leads to less reasons to hike rates, stopping expectations of future hikes getting out of control. in the u.k. it is a different dynamic. the u.k. surprised on the upside with the growth and on top of that, the gdp weakening has been a bit of a shock to everyone. andeally wants to cut rates the chance of cutting rates in december is very small so we are getting a better than normalization.
gannett shares are rising, up one half of 1%. may be in jeopardy. alex sherman joins us with some context and to tell us what happens to talk -- tronc. they announce their earnings later today and they have to convince shareholders they have a reasonable standalone plan that will be there short-term obstacle to commit shareholders. even though this deal did not go through, we do have a plan moving forward. i am sure tronc will juxtapose their earnings assuming they are better than what the net was -- gannett was in a few days because their shares fell after they announced earnings and fell further when we broke the news that banks were considering pulling out of this deal, which was the main reason the deal fell apart. both sides agreed to a price of
$18.75 a share and gannett did not have the financing. vonnie: if it cannot afford tronc, will it look for other acquisitions? alex: it was a big price for tronc and i think that is probably one of the reasons the financing was not there. you do not have to turn back the clock that much to see tronc trading at eight dollars a share in the price is $18.75, and enormous share for a newspaper company. gannett can turn its attention to other properties. there is certain other newspaper companies they can look at. maybe that is where they decide to go at this point. in terms of what happens to tronc, i probably would assume they are going to have to make a case that they are good as a standalone company. mark: it is the digital
strategy, isn't it? how will they make that a success? alex: if i knew that i probably would not be sitting here. to figurean easy go out how to make a go of it from a digital strategy standpoint. michael ferro who has some newspaper background and owns a controlling stake tronc, he has a plan. he sold some shares to islionaire patrick sean who in along with michael ferro. when he bought his share in tronc he said, my goal is not to sell my stake. if you look at it from that standpoint, michael ferro did a great job here because he twice at $12, $.25 a share and at $15 a share. you could say he did his fiduciary duty and yet the deal
third quarter profit coming in a full $1 billion ahead of animate's desk analysts estimates. -- analyst estimates. for more on this thy version we bring in -- this die version we bring in will kennedy. concernve been a lot of that shell went to early to its acquisition, so there was some concern they paid too much as oil slumped. i think what we see today is the quality of that business. 600,000 barrels a day from bg, 800,000 barrels a day that has 's business up. mark: is debt the elephant in the room? net debt to capital gearing, 29 .2% versus 12.7% a year earlier.
it is not just a shell thing. will: that is definitely a blot on the shell landscape and the acquisition they got worse. shell was behind exxon and managing its balance sheet through the earlier part of the oil slump in 2015, and took on all this debt to buy bg. how this develops will depend on the oil price. if oil continues to rise, the g better.tter -- bg looks if we get caught low $40, that debt will become a burden. they are still borrowing to pay the dividend. vonnie: even though oil is up up $47.10, we are in the 40 handle, what is the sweet spot for these companies? at what point is it ok? will: that is a really important question, and what these
companies have been stressing is they are bringing that number down, the number with which they can balance investments with cash flow, but they are not there yet. they are talking about 50 or 55 but they have a 40 handle now. with oil slightly above 50, shell believes they can balance the books next year. vonnie: until then they have debts to manage. what kind of asset sales are they planning and how fast will investors want to see them? will: they want to sell $30 billion worth of assets and a company the scale of shell. the real question is who wants to buy in a slump and are they going to pay enough money? i think that is going to be a key thing for investors to watch, the progress they make selling those assets and how
close they can get to the $30 billion target. mark: will kennedy of bloomberg noise -- news. vonnie: beware of the gremlin. what our next guest means as we had closer to 2017. 1% dow is down about 1/10 of , the s&p 500 down one quarter of 1% and the nasdaq is down 2/10 of 1%. the dollar index is just below 98, down 6/10 of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why
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visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton, and this is bloomberg markets on bloomberg television.
courtney donohoe has more. courtney: iraqi troops have advanced into the outskirts of mosul where they are trying to islamic state forces. a us-led coalition is taking part. islamic state has occupied most all for more than two years. the u.s. spy chief warns that -- the uk's spy chief warns that russia is an increasing threat. he told the guardian that russia has active agents in the u.k. and is pushing its foreign policy through cyber attacks and subversion. it is the first time in mi5 history the chief has given a newspaper interview. have is demanding to regular meetings with the british government over its strategy for leaving the european union. they call their country a major stakeholder in the u.k. and say the british government must
improve communication or put japanese investment at risk. a pipeline explosion and alabama has caused the price of gasoline to surge. they were forced to shut their mainlines. colonial pipeline carried houstonroderick's from -- products from houston to new york. hillary clinton and donald trump are preparing for the election to go into overtime. clinton has assembled a voter protection program including thousands of lawyers agreed to volunteer in battle gate -- battleground states. they plan to have 1000 lawyers monitor polls and possibly challenge election results across the country. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: but take a look at the market, they are lower. the dow down by one quarter of
1%, 18,100. the s&p 500s down, trading at 2119. the nasdaq is down about 3/10 of 1%. we will find out more about what is moving the nasdaq lower with abigail doolittle. abigail: we do have the nasdaq modestly lower, down 3/10 of 1%. the nasdaq is on pace for its sixth daily decline, the longest losing streak since april. one source of pain for the nasdaq and stocks appears to be rising rates. the 10 year yield last at levels seen and may. desk in may. may. only going to the bloomberg and take a look at a chart we looked at just a few years ago -- weeks
aqua,e have the nasdaq in in white we have the 10 year yield, and the new normal of bonds selling off is shown as this divergence, we are starting to see the divergence close with the nasdaq coming down, rates going higher. if this continues it suggests we could see that nasdaq and stocks correct a bit more as stocks go higher. as for what is moving today, starbucks trading lower, one of the worst drags on the nasdaq. deutsche bank lower. at 4%.e now looking they are bearish ahead of the andany's report on monday starbucks did put in a 52-week low. one bright spot, we are seeing a rebound and biotech. biogen and silky recovering.
-- celgene recovering. 65% of s&p 500 companies have reported their third-quarter results and 76% beaten estimates. with barely the average gain shy of 1/10 of 1%, it is a typical quarter. our next guest says the economies are at a major pivot point. joining me is chris hyzy. what is the pivot point? chris: there is quite a few, but the biggest is switching from a deflation world into a wage pressure world. is that transition happens you are going to see the move from high-quality dividend producing, dividendelding u.s.
outperformance to a cyclical value. banks,l's, technology, emerging markets. that tipping point starting to get picked up in earnings around the world. vonnie: is that what your clients are most worried about? or are they more worried about the election? you manage some wealthy people. i want viewers to have a look at the chart. expectationsation for the 10 year yields are moving up as it looks like there might be a clinton presidency. when the e-mail controversy reignited it is lower. chris: we have all of this underneath sea level, all of this earnings data, the cyclical move and pick up in manufacturing, the consumer still hanging in. residential real estate in the united states, all of these signs you typically look at are starting to had positive off the
summer slowdown, and the major debt the midcycle put around the world. then you have the election in the united states, the referendum in italy, the federal reserve meeting putting a dampening effect on investor sentiment around the world. you get no flow into the market. you have a reprieve of stock buybacks and the market goes nowhere until you wake up after the election and the earnings data goes through and you say, it is not so bad. mark: equal upside, downside risk, how much potentially to the upside and how much to the downside? chris: at 18 times earnings if you keep a sticky multiple, you have a point and a half, 1.5% to maybe 2% postelection rally as the cyclical wins takeover. maybe close to a new high for this year. if that is the base for next year, about 6% higher from there.
it is going to be more earnings driven versus multiple expansion. on the downside, same thing. mark: the beginning of each year has proven to be a little bit cautious in recent years. this history repeat itself in the beginning of 2017? chris: we think so. january traditionally has been relatively good over the course of history but the last feud years, a big draw down. everybody builds their list of the big worries and the worry that people are starting to whisper about is inflation. is the fed going to be behind the curve -- curve? that will be a midyear discussion. if that hits in january or february you could see a correction somewhere between 5% and 10% to start the reading -- start the year, a rally that people should buy. mark: that is the big gremlin
that you mentioned that we beautifully teased? chris: that is right. vonnie: we cannot ignore it especially after midnight. what about the emerging markets and how they react? that is what tipped things for us last year. you cannot look at the u.s. in isolation. chris: that is one of the non-gremlins, the emerging markets over the last 30 years has given you a really good signal on the world from the standpoint of what they would export. now that story is changing as china has transitioned and as you look at their earnings revisions they are starting to trend positively higher for the first time in six years and that is why they have a bear market. their performance has been outperforming this year and we think it continues. that is the main pivot point for geographical allocations. cyclical starts to take over and portfolios, value starts to take
over, and active management versus passive starts to take over. vonnie: you expect active management to outperform passive? that is convenient. chris: we expect active management to have an easier time not underperforming. we are moving into a more inflationary type environment or less deflationary . what if that does not happen outside of britain and perhaps the u.s.? chris: then you tread water again. markets will hinge all upon what is going on in bond yields and oil prices we saw mid-2015. thear what we have seen in economic data and revisions and margins in the united states, it does not appear that is the case. wage pressure is starting to pick up and you have bonded yields going up. here is the key, a bond yields have been going up, wage pressure has tilted into inflation and inflation has been going up so real rates have been
at, isown, touches very reflation very for the global economy. vonnie: they might be moving up very slowly. chris: that is right. vonnie: chris hyzy, thank you. mark: just wanted to bring you some breaking news. bank and thetalian former investment minister says he and investors are backing him to withdraw that plan to shore up monte paschi, citing a lack of cooperation from the lender. just hearing from monte paschi it says the plan was not binding and they have the same info access as others, and they kept regulators -- monte paschi kept regulators informed. just hearing what they had to say about that news that came out earlier. associatesat harrods
mark: this is "bloomberg markets." i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn in new york. 3% gdp gets the fed closer to its inflation goal. that is the note that michael darden outlined on bloomberg surveillance. herro. is david tom keene asked whether he only need 3% to get the fed on rate. >> productivity growth is not
i'm it was, just .6 per and in the population is only growing at the same pace. growth potential is only around 3% nominalm and a gdp figure will get you close to the fed's 2%. mark: are we becoming like : are wend japan -- tom becoming like europe and japan? a low, but maybe intensity version of what is going on in parts of asia and europe. hear michael darden say that, does your expected rate of return come down? >> what we do is look at all kinds of factors and we are bottom-up value investors so we look at what we believe can grow. we have to incorporate that macro economic forecast, but
there are so many factors that go into earnings growth that that is just one of them. the big overlay, the gdp growth figure is just one of them. some companies could do far better, some need just a little bit of a tailwind, and some cannot do well or fly in a low growth environment. analystshat our job as has to be, to determine what impact the macro environment has on the bottom line. francine: is there a common mistake that ceos are doing? are they not investing enough or too much? do,hen we look at what ceos this is one of the key questions. they could get good returns on additional investment, by all means invest it. if they cannot and there is a lot of debt, pay off debt and if not, perhaps make an acquisition . if you are going to overpay we
do not want you doing that. if that does not work, give it back to the owners of the business. they do not have a lot of debt. it is hard to find good returns. acquisitions are expensive. the have been giving more back and it is not necessarily a bad thing. we want them to do that arithmetic. haven't they done it in the past and all of this what happens to a lot of the companies you are invested in? >> i think you have to normalize these interest rates. you cannot assume that into perpetuity we are going to have low or no interest rates so when we value business, we use a normal discount rate. the price of equity is 10% for a big cap company. that might be conservative, but this is what we believe a company should be generating year in and year out into
perpetuity. mark hard aharo and -- donna. they are exploring cost-sharing. francine lacqua asked if it makes sense. if some of sense this fixed cost, if you could create a "utility" and share that, there is a lot to be saved. how much i think remains to be seen. at least what we see in credit a huge and this is positive, they are really being proactive on re-examining the business model. what are we doing right and wrong, what is cost intensive, what is labor intensive, and can we find a way to make things more efficient? you concerned because they cut too much they will not have taken advantage of
this bond? >> their aim is to ride the cycle a lot more muted so the highs will not be as high, the lows will not be as low. they want to create an annuity like income stream from their fixed income trading in their global investment markets business. it would not surprise me if they were not as reactive as some of the other investment banks. on the downside we should also feel that benefit. as shareholders, we prefer that. we would like a more stable predictable earning stream. chaos whichat about is monte paschi? it almost looks like a penny stock and at the same time we just heard an italian banker is withdrawing its offer to shore up monte paschi. >> this has been a disaster. look at this chart. this is what happens when you have lax regulation, too much is the money.
lending spree, lending to everyone and everything, and this is the world's oldest bank. it has a very storied history, but it is a big problem. it is one of the two or three things that is putting a cap on italian banking system. i think eventually it will be resolved, but with the unknowns in the long book, no one really wants to touch it. mark: that was david herro on bloomberg. they innow we know that fact are withdrawing that proposal of october 13 and saying it was not binding. it is time for our latest bloomberg business flash. motors, fiat chrysler, and nissan reported lower sales in the u.s. last month. gm's sales fell less than expected, fiat chrysler was down 10%, and nissan dropped more
than 2%. both a little more than forecasters forecasted. vw plunged 18%. many factoring output in the u.s. rose for a fifth month in a row. .t hit its highest in a year new orders also hit a 12 month high. that is your bloomberg business flash. still ahead, signs of a london office space what. -- glut. that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
office space amounts to about 5000 desks. since july when britain voted to leave the e.u., office values in the city of london fell the most in at least seven years. i want to bring in jack sidders is barclays alone or will there others? jack: first of all it is important to say that from barclays' point of view, this has been in place for quite a while and predates brexit. the negotiations were going on for several. to answer your question, barclays is not alone. all banks are struggling to adapt to this low interest rate environment. they have been forced to cut workers as they are trying to cut costs and that means they have excess office space. there have been several major companies who have sublease office space or tried to get out
of it. we reported last month on citigroup offering to lease a big chunk of space. mark: is oversupply a bigger threat to rents and value then brexit? jack: that was the view of ubs analysts a couple of months ago and i think it is a big risk. in some ways they are obviously directly related. one of the interesting things about this they will often recite the vacancy rates and with that tells you is there is not that much available space in london. there is a lot of it planned but a lot of it has been leased. developers will probably hold off on building some of that now that we have voted to leave the european union. that does not take account of when big tenants like barclays say we are going to cut whole
lot of jobs and get rid of a lot of space. i can have a big impact on the market, a big unknown variable. in barclays case, it is a big occupier, but if you started to see a lot of other occupiers following suit, that could have a big impact on the market, particularly after brexit. vonnie: when you think about it, the tenants are in the perfect position because there is talk of oversupply of property. there is also talk of the banks may be leaving. is it the right thing to do to talk about downsizing? jack: absolutely. it would almost be imprudent if you were intent on thinking about leasing space, maybe not to revisit or go back to some landlords and say we would like to look at those turns again. we have already had some of the executive saying rent has not moved but what they call
,ncentives, rent free periods tobe developers paying renovate offices, that has become more generous since brexit. credit agricole was close to a .eal to move to canary wharf they have come back to the landlords and said, what is on the table now? mark: barclays 25% office space cut. coming up, bloomberg european close. we are going to cover the outlook for financials as we head to the close. have a look at what is happening to stocks, only for the seven day. -- falling for the seventh day. ♪
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. mark: we are going to take you from washington to shanghai. we have a couple of stories out of new york, the u.k., and australia. .ere is what we are watching earnings confess win in europe, we will get the outlook on energy. bp disappoints and shell smashes estimates. andie: hillary clinton donald trump arming for a possible post election day battle, assembling a team of voter protection experts and lawyers in battleground states. we look to the federal reserve decision tomorrow. while none of the banks expect to move, three primary dealers said the central bank will hold off on december as well. our investors misguided?