tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg November 7, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
it wrong friday, i am cautious. a.l. mark barton. vonnie: it is daylight saving time -- what can you do? i am in new york. i am vonnie quinn. this is the "european close" on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we will take you from new york to london to dublin and hong kong. here is what we are watching today. one day to go until the u.s. presidential elections as the candidates make the final push for the voters. we will discuss if the results mirror what happened with the brexit vote. surprisesbc reported a jump in profits. the ceos showed progress in his efforts to combat a low growth environment. a recordir reported
number of passengers. we hear from the ceo on its latest earnings. how about a look at european equities and trading. something quite unusual happened. european stocks are rising after falling for nine out of the last 11 days. two of the other days, the stoxx few we haveanged not risen 11 days. look at these currencies falling against the dollar. there is a second column. corn yields rising in europe. periphery yields falling. gold the ultimate safe haven is falling today. day after hillary clinton was absolved a second time by the fbi. interesting news in the currency markets. positionhe net short of sterling against the dollar.
the pound falling for the first day in seven after the longest winning stretch since marx. -- since march. this is after the high court rolling that -- ruling that theresa may had to trigger article 50. -- ryanair in the news today. the low-cost carrier shares rising as much as 6.3 percent earlier since july 25. it plans to buy back as much as $550 million of stock after record passenger numbers over the somerset quarter profits and beat estimates. it has raised its long-term passenger targeted by more than 10%. pricing pressure and economic arertainty from present
whichng the company, downgraded, saying that sterling depreciated more than expected. shares up by more than 6%. 4%. you now, shares up by shares rising as much as 9% earlier after the belgian billionmade an improved year proposal to buy its dutch counterpart. that is a 20% premium from friday's close. the delivery industries shifts its focus from carrying parcels to carrying letters. it comes six months after previous negotiations between the two failed. concerns remain about antitrust regulators. worth --hy shares are that is why shares are lower than earlier. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. let's get to the markets desk via julie hyman has the latest. julie: thank you.
we have a big rebound in u.s. stocks after the nine date slide. all three major averages are trading at the highest since march 1 after fbi director james comey said no further investigations at this time would be done into hillary clinton and her team over her personal use of email whilst -- her use of a personal email server while secretary of state. we are also watching reversals to the vix now down, after it increased that we saw last week. it is trading below 19 again. of u.s.ing selling treasuries as we see buying of stocks. also seeing a buying of the u.s. dollar, which is rebounding versus a basket of currencies. the 10 year yield up four basis points, 1.81%. gold is selling off as well. people were stocking up on gold. a lot of hedge funds were buying gold as there was concern about
the election. now that we see this reversal, at least today, gold prices are lower. and miners are lower as well. declines today. we still have earnings. it is still going on. sysco, the food service company, is trading higher. mgm resorts gaining on a bounceback in business in macau. maker ofautomation, automation software and equipment, its numbers also beating estimates. vonnie: lots going on today. let's check in on him bloomberg first word news, with courtney donohoe in the newsroom. courtney: it is the final day of the presidential campaign. the candidates will cram in as many stops as they can. donald trump begins in sarasota, florida, then we'll go to north
carolina and pennsylvania. hillary clinton starts in michigan,, goes to winds up in philadelphia. she will join by her president -- she will be joined by her husband, president bill clinton and president obama and michelle obama. a poll has clinton ahead of trump in a race involving candidates. a 5.2 magnitude earthquake struck oklahoma. mile westnter was one of fishing, home of the christian oil tank farm. some pipeline company shut down operations as a precaution. oil facilities were not damaged, but 40 to 50 buildings in cushing were. earthquakes has been linked to the disposal of was water from fracking. itna passed a law that gives unprecedented access into foreign companies' technology.
be mandatory testing and certification of computer equipment. the most alluded to be on the planet, new delhi, is taking unprecedented steps to ease bad -- the most polluted city on the planet, new delhi, is taking theecedented steps to ease bad air quality. there is construction that the auto and real estate sectors could be most at risk of the government cannot clean up the polluted air. the first woman to serve as u.s. attorney general, janet reno, died. she was sharply criticized in her first year for ordering the deadly raid on a davidian complex in texas. janet reno was 78 years old. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. afterthe dollar surged
the fbi again absolved hillary clinton, sending the greenback up. the currency rising as much as 1.5%. our next guest says the currency market is betting on clinic -- , but a republican victory could cause something spectacular. joining us now is jeremy cook from world first. anything that is truly spectacular in the introduction has to be dealt with first. if trump pulls off a victory tomorrow, let's get all of the eventualities out of the way. where does the money go, what sort of sizable moves do we go, and hadley barrett on which particular crosses? japanesehe winners the yen. everyone flies to the yen and a
pace we have not seen in a long time. dollar-yen is 1.04. the first stop will be 99 at that point. movell not be a chance over the course of one state going, but as soon as we start to hear states on the east coast, which may be clinton had had as a slight blue, if they go red, for trump -- pennsylvania --then or new hampshire the yen will be the main beneficiary of that. i think we could see a quick and vast selloff in the dollar against the euro, the swiss, and the yen. and then mexico peso -- mark: what happens? jeremy: it will not go to 18, but it will not just be the mexican peso. you have to look at his record and verbatim around trade.
it is not just mexico, it is also china. the elements of a trade policy under trump may cause problems. we saw problems in the canadian options market when trump started to make a bit of a lead. vonnie: how much of this would be dollar weakness, primarily, and how much weakness, percentagewise, would we see? jeremy: there is the possibility of a 5% to 7% moving over the course of the overnight session. this is not just the kind of weakness we see in age from twin. one thing i am worried about, the nightmare scenario, is that hillary clinton wins the el toro ctoral college but donald trump wins the public vote. his rhetoric has been about the systems against him. if he is able to stand there in the early hours of wednesday and
say more people voted for me than her, yet we still have not won, that could really -- the civil unrest that could promote could prompt further, sizable losses for the u.s. as well. that may be just the start. vonnie: if clinton wins, the dollar strengthens? or is it just in a holding pattern? .eremy: it is the status quo we are seeing a bit of a squeeze of the moment. and a relief rally at around 1% is entirely possible. the majority of the green moves we see on the day are going to be in those emerging market currencies, those currencies that have been altered as result of the trade policy. dollar wise, there is a lot of asymmetric risks. mark: sterling? if trump wins? sterlingf trump wins,
-- mark: short-term, long-term? i am a short and long, bear on sterling. if it goes hillary, sterling hits bottom for the year. if it has not, we are continuing to head lower. week -- t so we bought them it is clinton. where are we heading? how far and how fast upwards? jeremy: i do nothing we go upwards. we just bought her mouth. any fiscal stimulus coming from chancellor hammond towards the end of the month in the autumn statement may give a boost if people think inflation very pressure will have to be counteracted by the bank of england. but the end of year prediction was 122 in sterling-dollar. vonnie: jeremy cook, we will
mark: live from london, i am mark barton. just 50 just 15 minutes away from the european close. vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. the markets are doing their best to anticipate the results of the election. various analysts are predicting what it clinton or trump victory will mean for the s&p 500. joining us now is mike mckee.
if you enter your local otb, if it was legal, you would find odds are giving trump four to one kids a few put down $10, you would get what, $50 back? mike: that is a mistake made during brexit. that is why trump is cleaning -- clinging to the idea brexit as a surprise. but it will not happen. the poles themselves in the united kingdom were not wrong. vote, twofore the points higher for the remains side pay the day it of the vote, two points higher in the leave vote to you they were within the margin of error. what happened is bookies to in more money on remain, even
though there were more bets placed on leave. ofy focused on the amount money. then the media picked that up. everyone thought it would be andin by and easy amounts, it turned out to be not the same. we do not have that here, because we do not have that vote. the people who are betting on the british side were largely overseas. and we have 51 different races with all kinds of different people on the ballot. senators, congressmen. it is not at all similar to brexit. vonnie: it is fascinating, because we do not even have a reliable poll. the last one was done before new information came out. and more information may yet, out. mike: but we do have early vote totals. 37 states allow early voting. he gives us a picture of where we are. anys not definitive by means, because certainly the composition of the electorate could change on election day, but so far, we are seeing an enormous number of people coming
out in many other states. in nevada, for example, three quarters of the people going to vote have already voted. about two thirds in the state of florida. you are looking at a lot of people already registering the of a do not count votes until election day, but they do give a breakdown of who has come out. so far, more democrats have come out in all of these states. it does not mean republicans will not come out tomorrow, but at least she has a head start. mark: you still wonder if comey may have swayed it. a question.s a lot of the people who voted early did so after comey 1, the first letter he released. they would have been working off of that information. in almost every state, early voting closed over the weekend, before coming 2 came out. people who voted early did not
have the clearance, whatever you call it, that comey gave clinton. vonnie: what about the down ballot? we do not tend to concentrate as much on the pulling down ballot. for thee big contest is senate and how that turns out. that may have been affect it, to a certain extent, by comey 1. it did interrupt democrats momentum and hillary clinton's big lead. now, most pollsters and analysts think it will be very close to you there is a feeling it may end up about 50-50 or 51-49. democrats need four seats to take control. that would represent a 50-50 tie. if hillary clinton wins, the vice president, tim kaine, would make all of the ties, so they have control of the chamber. the best hope for democrats is in illinois, where mark kirk is almost earned to lose. new hampshire, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and in missouri prison -- and in missouri.
missouri has been something of a bellwether for the nation. not every year, but it is a state where we could see if hillary clinton does well. kantorcan take jason over the finish line. vonnie: michael mckee, bloomberg's politics editor. reporting a ryanair record number of passages -- passengers. we will hear from his ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪
he expects 21 million customers 180 million.rom ryanair also said it would initiate and buyback. he sat down earlier with bloomberg's anna edwards. michael: the deals are us on -- are dependent on us delivering growth. is cutting capacity genetically. airports do not want to see traffic fall. so they are coming to ryanair and saying you deliver the growth, we will give discounts. but the discounts are available to everyone as long as it is not broken. >> how does this affect your planning? last time, you said chaos would ensue, it it needs to be managed correctly. as a business leader, you would pool out, gradually, and push
more into europe. where are you at without process? pivotl: we said we would growth away from the u.k.. we had planned to grow in the u.k., our capacity, by 12%. we have cut that by more than 50%. so there is real meaningful decisions. the uk's losing out on significant growth. that growth is being pivoted into markets like germany and spain. frankly, the costs are slower -- are lower and we have some certainty. what is clear is that the u.k. has no idea what it is doing. -- there isenda in no agenda. i am really pessimistic, because i do not think missed may or any of our ministers have any idea what they are doing. >> when you watched the story around the investment into the car sector in the u.k., do you
think if i have a list of demands, these are my demands to invest more in the u.k.? >> i would not waste much time on it. if the u.k. does leave the european union, they will still sell cars, because those open, more expensive. i think the electorate were lied to. they were told they could leave the you but still have all of the benefits. it is not true. the agenda will be set by the europeans. mrs. mei hasme is committed to filing article 50 in march, and there is a two-year guillotine. there is no incentive on the part of the europeans to help or consent with her. you push into europe, you're dealing into the reality of excess capacity. how will that affect fares? >> we are able to fill all of
them but -- all of the demand we have. what fares will follows the next year or two. extremely fairat declines this winter. but they are dependent on lower oil prices, new costly aircraft. there will be excess capacity for the next year or two. that means people will fly with the lowest cost carrier, meaning they will fly ryanair. vonnie: ryanair ceo michael o'leary. mark: we are heading into the close this monday session. we are rising. it may be a surprise to some. this is bloomberg. ♪
1.6% as the game. we fell 3.4% last week. the biggest weekly drop since february. proper gainrst since june 20. i say probably because two of the last 11 sessions, markets finished unchanged. the other nine, the stoxx 600 fell. the u.s. election tomorrow. raised by versus hold at deutsche bank. they price target is 40 euros. the earlier price target was 34. function. our anr sevenholds -- 14 holds, buys. zero cells. 12 month price target of analysts is 33 years 88. 33.88 euros.
let's go to tesco. shares 1% lower. tesco bank, the lending arm of the u.k. supermarkets operator fell off in online transactions. customers had money frog only taken from its accounts. some the world's biggest financial institutions, jpmorgan, the new york fed, they have all been cider jack -- ciber hack the last couple of years. shares down by 1% today in tesco, with investors bullish against the dollar as they position for the u.s. election. riskdollars one-week
reversal rate, which is a gauge of market positioning and sentiment, climbing friday to the highest level. going back to bloomberg data. in 2003. bring on the election. vonnie: it is coming whether you like it are not paid u.s. markets higher today after nine straight days of declines. julie speak about the details earlier. the s&p up 1.9%. 39 points at 2124. nasa up 2.2%. let's look of the vix. 18.53.own to still, a little elevated. nothing to panic over, though. 97.79llar index, the still trading lower. we will have a look at some of the currency is later that are
weaker today, and some that are stronger. points at the 2/10 thread. the treasury market is not as entranced by the equity market these days, and is reacting more to election fears rather than to what the equity market is doing. he looks at it delayed a moreing move that says logical reaction would be a steepening yield curve because 10 and 30 years are prepared more frequently. now we are getting. but we do get a widening. on the currency board, the mexican peso again a proxy for the u.s. election. it is stronger by 2%. looks like the polls are tightening and the fbi came out with its findings in advance of the actual election day. we want to look at the turkish lira. a continues to weaken. it is at 3.17, which is its weakest ever.
6.79 15.at this -- reserves declining in china as we saw overnight. on the bloomberg first word news. in our newsroom is courtney donohoe. courtney: hillary clinton enters the last day of the presidential campaign after getting a welcome november surprise. fbi chief james comey told congress the fbi is sticking by its findings that hillary clinton did not commit a crime in her handling of email as secretary of state. fbi waslawmakers the examining new emails possibly linked to the investigation. donald trump said that hillary ggedton is protected by a ri system. 44aul house clinton ahead ahead of 41 in a poll involving third-party candidates.
so many civilians are staying in their homes that iraqis cannot rely on airstrikes from the us-led coalition in iraq. primeia, the british minister's outreach mission suffered a double blow. ministerdian prime disagrees over migration rules. primus to modi says that britain should be more supportive of indian students who want to enroll in u.k. universities. u.k. prime minister may also got the cold shoulder by top executives from the tata group. a blow tochina dealt supporter of independence in hong kong. it rolled -- it rolled that two coulddependence activists not hold office. thousands of demonstrators gathered to protest the move.
global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. mark: the mexican peso seeing its biggest gain in the month. that is after hillary clinton was cleaned again by the fbi. the global head of fx strategy at credit suisse joined bloomberg's america earliest to discuss. >> the peso has been liquid for a long time. the closer we get to the election, the more that will matter. the gaps will be bigger. i think broadly speaking, clearly anything that's adjusts linton will win is good news for the peso. and it does make sense, at least. >> let's talk about the gap. i charted what happened to sterling in june. it is the white line on the
chart. overlaid with that is the blue line, the dollar-peso. but that is just for october through today. you can see the gap that we did see. but to the upside for the peso. what kind of cap can we expect if we see a trump victory wednesday morning? >> what we do not know yet is how the mexican authorities would react. in the u.k., there was not much of a chance of intervention by the central bank. in mexico, there is a good case for the central bank to intervene pay the question becomes if they wait and see before taking action order they try to preempt. the options market is likely to get a large move at around 5% or so. i think you would find the central bank would try to do something about this. you think about liquid currency payers. cable is one of the most liquid currency payers. that one not so much. given the time this could, out, the result that could, out, what
are concerns out of that? how do mexican authorities set them up -- set themselves up for that kind of thing? shahab: what we will think about is the trade-off between spending money upfront and then trying to signal to the market that there's is not much there, far theng to see how currency falls first, then trying to act. at the moment, i would lean on the second side myself. there was a comment that argued that spending money motto -- now would be not much use. it is a trade-off for them. personally, i would wait to see how the market reacts first, wait for the explosion, then tried to calm things. we know about their ability to intervene, whether it is sooner or later?
have they lined up credit with the imf? shahab: right. mexico already has large foreign exchanges that could be used. as youre also, mentioned, lines of credit with the imf. clearly, the global community will be happy to help mexico in their situation as well. other financial officials around the world would be receptive to any thing on mexico's front as well. we believe x ago has the resources to calm things down after the initial shock we could see from a trump victory. but if trump really does try to move against nafta, there is not really enough in the bag in terms of the reserve. in fact, would mexico want to stop the peso falling under those circumstances? we have to differentiate a little between what to do on day
one and what they may do over the course of a year, where perhaps they are happy to let the peso fall. jonathan: let's talk about the dollar specifically. typically, the dollar is strong. we have seen that again and again. what i am hearing from people like yourself is that is not what is going to happen this time around on the back of a president trump, let's say. in the coming months, let's say you get the fiscal deficit spending, that the fed rate hikes. does that not scream stronger dollar anyway? shahab: what the market does not suddenly, outry one day and disagree with the idea of a strong dollar policy? has is something the u.s. been pursuing for 20 years or so now as a concept. talks against that idea, that changes the market perception of the dollar.
other things to consider -- how reactoreign central banks to a more uncertain policy environment in the u.s.? willow bay still see the dollar as a safe haven, or would they feel they need to look elsewhere and diversify more than they have in the past? these are issues there are structural changes that we may see in terms of how central banks and others deal with the dollar that could overwhelm the issue you just mentioned, like higher rates. jalinoos, global head of fx energy at credit suisse. vonnie: thanks. it is the final full day of campaigning. trump is beginning now. here are live pictures of his campaign event in sarasota, florida. hillary clinton will speak in pittsburgh at noon.
mark: welcome back. happening now, david davis, u.k. secretary for exiting the, is answering questions. he gave a statement on the ruling that government needs parliament approval before starting brexit. you can watch the entire speech on the bloomberg on live go. getting on with delivering their brexit mandates, article 50. it is the beginning of the brexit process. no second referendum.
the government believes it has prerogative on article 50. the supreme court will rule in early december. he says the government disagrees with the court judgment and will appeal. we know that that debate continues. time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. more problems for vw. poetsch has been added to a german investigation of the emissions scandal. relates to his time as chief financial officer. meanwhile, volkswagen could have more trouble in the u.s. a newspaper reporting that american testers have found technology to cheat emissions test in audi cars. any report confirms the central bank in germany said that the economy went to a soft patch in the third quarter. since then, manufacturing has picked up.
"dr. strange" took an $85 million -- took in 85 million dollars in its debut in the u.s. and canada. the newest movie from marvel superhero comics stars benedict cumberbatch. it is only the second company to $600 millionthan in ticket sales in one year. hsbc says profit was up by 7%. the chief executive has been cutting costs, bolstering the .ank's capital he is also trying to redeployed in asia. columnist with bloomberg's gadfly is joining us now. combatingprogress in
the slow growth environment, this low interest rate environment? revenue on shipping costs for the first time. that is important, is it not? >> it is important for all banks. he can take credit for achieving it. i think a lot of the excitement was around capital. that was to do with regulatory retreat. it was a good day. it did give investors some relief and comfort on the dividend. mark: and the dividend is safe, at least into the near future? as far as i can be with banks. exactly. kind of safe for 2017. and can we talk about his successor? is it too early to start to check a few names around? lionel: why not? aw many ceos really have
reputation still intact, especially in the u.k. banking scene. the name of mr. antonio. has been name that thrown around a little bit. who knows. but there are not that many ceos who have that. mark: how good of a job has he done? starteductured -- restructuring -- in 2007. exited 80 businesses globally. it has been a substantial overhaul. how has he done? what is the market perception of him? lionel: he has done well. there is the idea he is managing to outpace revenue, which is the issue. growth is still uncertain. there are still changes to calm -- to come. in the u.k., we have not really action on the planned a we have the plans but we do not know what they will look like and how easy it will be to pull
off. mark: explained the capital. ti rose to 13.9%. it be lots of estimates. a lot of it is down to the its bank of care litigation's state. how does it work and is it as good as it looks? lionel: this is about the flagship investment in china, have is something that managed to change the treatment. what that means is they have managed to flatten their capital ratio by a substantial amount. that is actually good, even if it does not translate directly. it is seen as healthy, because it shows the regulator is somehow on the same page as the bank and there is room to breathe on investment and capital payback. chart iis is my lovely keep bringing up -- this is u.k. banks since brexit.
we have heard from more lenders now. what is the health check for the u.k. banking industry? what is the takeover? -- take-away? lionel: u.k. banks like european banks. tough to defend those margins in the u.k., but they are taking a decent stab at it. the outlook is about rates. good in thishat is economy. there is some nervousness and uncertainty. also, the challenger banks coming in, in products like mortgages. it is still early in the days of brexit on saturday, but the rate issue is still a pressure on profits. it is very weak and low. mark: thanks for filling us in on what is happening in hsbc and
vonnie: time now for our battle of the charts. the segment we look forward to most every day, myself and mark. except in this case, mark is actually taking part. we kick off with joe weisenthal. at theam looking bloomberg financial conditions index. a measure of the looseness or tightness of money. got a lot tighter in february, when we had market turmoil post-brexit. recently, as we have had this losing streak in the market,
which is reversing today, into the election, financial conditions have been getting tighter. financial conditions are loosening a little with the rally, but it shows that if the market is concerned -- vonnie: i want to put you over so we can see the charts. joe: thank you. sorry about the typo on my screen. it does show that markets are concerned about trump. and he does win. likely, we see more tightening of financial conditions. that would raise questions about fed could raise rates. vonnie: what number? joe: where is that number? i will have to -- vonnie:. we will get that for you joe: i think it's -- g #btv4819. mark: so barack obama was in -- was inaugurated in 2009.
let's focus on obama. focus on how assets have been after obama to go over in january, 2009. the bloomberg dollar spot index gauges the dollar against tenant of its major peers. the best performer against the dollar in that time -- the new zealand dollar up by 36%. treasuries have risen by 28%. this is from the beginning of 2010. in commodities, gold of 53%. down 14%.hat period copper up 48%. look at the s&p 500. 164%. salont time period, altra cosmetics and fragrance, which runs a chain of beauty shops in the u.s., has risen 33,000 671%. the worst performer -- transo cean, offshore driller.
but under obama, the s&p 500 is the asset class you should have invested in. g #btv 4812. vonnie: i love that chart. to maryave a request in dillon for a long time. here's hoping she saw your chart and will explain to us how she managed to do that. i am going to award the crown to the person who stared adversity in the face. joe weisenthal, you are the winner today. continue to watch "bloomberg markets," and thanks to our contenders. ♪
david: from our world headquarters in new york, straight from london to washington and hong kong in this hour, one day left until election day in america. hillary clinton leading donald trump by 3% in the national poll. don't worry if the stock market goes crazy. it says nothing about annual returns. what should investors think about in financials come wednesday morning? here we are, 12 hours away from election day. vonnie: but who's counting? [laughter] >> we are in positive territory today. from nine straight sessions of decline, this is the best day for the major averages, going back to march 1. definitely seeing a relief rally today after the