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tv   With All Due Respect  Bloomberg  November 8, 2016 5:00pm-7:01pm EST

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anchor: this is it. no hype required. the outcomes of countless races across the united states will be determined in a few hours. the international attention paid to the key race, hillary versus donald trump in the biggest job on planet earth. that will be our focus primarily for the next two hours. millions of voters have cast ballots. in just a few hours, either hillary clinton or donald trump will claim the title of president of the united states.
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both voted this morning. clinton at an elementary school. trump, not far from here at a school in gotham city. if you are wondering who melania trump voted for, you are not the only one curious. 34 senate races, about a dozen or so, which will decide the fate of who controls the united states senate come january. democrats would need a seemingly out of reach 30 seat gain met to take back control of the majority there. nine states have marijuana ballot initiatives. other states will weigh in on gun control, the death penalty, and campaign finance. we will focus on merrily on the big presidential race with a the--guestsest on on the program. where'd you see presidential race standing? ahn: i see it standing in
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place where it hillary clinton did not win, it would be surprising. we ended up with the last set of polls that we got at the national level in the battleground states which speaking,hat broadly if donald trump were to win tonight, it would be a surprise, not impossible, but a surprise. mark: she has from the beginning, structural advantages. i think she has closed pretty strong in terms of a message. there's nothing she has done well. there is nothing -- nothing she has done wrong in the home stretch. if she won florida or north carolina on the east coast, i think the race is over. if trump winds both of those states and republicans are more optimistic about north carolina all of a sudden, if he wins them both, it'll be a long and contested night.
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we have seen suddenly, at the very end, and especially in the early vote, suddenly hispanic turnout has become a huge story. it is not surprising that hispanics would be motivated given how central they were and some of the things transit over time. it has been, a lot of people focused on the lack of enthusiasm for weeks leading up to election day. you look at the vote in some counties, in florida, and you say, this could be off the charts. arizona is showing similar signs. nevada has shown similar signs. if latinos show out in big numbers, that will be an insuperable firewall. here, one is from closer. clinton is at the hilton on 6th avenue.
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farther west from the hilton is where hillary clinton will be at the javid center. i will not say it looks like a theme park but they built an elaborate set up that people are saying is on most unprecedented for an election night. both candidates are cautiously optimistic. talking to both clinton and trump people in the last 24 hours, republicans say, "we need a break, we need something surprising to happen, we need something the data does not show." it suggests, the new they are -- they know they are behind. trump needs anywhere between eight and 10 states where he is either behind. the one thing he has that worries democrats is the x factor, the unknown. john: i think, it for the feel of it, i think you would acknowledge the trump momentum, eight, 10 days
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ago after the initial comey letter, dissipated. mark: there is no reason to think that it exists in some other way. even republicans are worried that they cannot explain how this happens. never a good sign. surprised if she wins florida and the race is effectively over early in the night. we hear about long lines at polling places, tactical watches , and it is no different this year. we have seen electronic voting machines down in at least half a dozen states with standard way times. pretty much par for the course, but donald trump's team is bigly.g them nevadaiscussed the new lawsuit in clark county, the big county around las vegas.
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stayed openions well past their closing time. trump is disputing official accounts that there were people in line when the polls closed. that would allow the polls to stay open. mr. trump: the people brought it up. i have great representatives in and a lot of other places, and they felt it was pretty bad situation out there. we have to keep the system honest. very, very, very, very serious situation with the whole process, and i have been talking about the rigged system for a long time and in many ways, it is a registered system -- a rigged system. hopefully, we will win. john: how bad will this be if
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trump does not concede? mark: horrible. i love elections. this race has been dispiriting for a lot of people and for us. donald trump has a different standard on threatening litigation even of you more often threatens that follows through, he has been in more litigation than anyone who has run for president. he has been criticized in the last several weeks, talking about a rigged system. i hope it hillary clinton wins so decisively that donald trump resist the grassroots presser -- the grassroots pressure that evolves. you could challenge every presidential election that has ever been held if you want to use the standard of "something seems off." seen presidential nominees losing presidential nominees always have a question for the reason you said. you can always find irregularities and every loser has a choice to make. how may losses are they going to file.
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how many ways are they going to contest? been, past, tradition has if you have a low probability of winning those and it will not change the outcome, you back off, and they, but the good of the country, i am not going to do that. nevada, you have the republican party chairman, michael mcdonald, on sunday in reno saying, last night in clark county, they left a pole open until 10:00 so eight group could vote -- a certain group could vote. if trump challenges, it will be racially freighted. at best, sometimes racist. that is bad enough just to throw the outcome and the question for no good reason. it is horrible to throw it into question when every charge that you make, every talent you make, has a racial undertone. mark: and you do it in a way that is not dignified. to make suretry everything was done right.
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if it is done that way, and a legitimate way to challenge, the current environment demand that for many side. that is not -- for any side. that is not the way donald trump would do it. let's keep in mind -- john: we should be trying to get more people to vote at all times. should be the goal. this is ridiculous. keep the polls open late, what is the harm? that is not fraud, that is increasing participation. mark: the reality is, you could challenge the result. this country needs a president who has got a chance to succeed and that will require someone who is seen as legitimate. that has got to be the goal. our political power block is next. matalin,ber, mary jennifer granholm, and mike feldman, when we come back.
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anchor: get ready for a bigly political force. the former mississippi governor and chairman of the republican party, the renowned haley barbour, joining us from new orleans and newly independent, politically, that is, mary matalin, with us here on the set. jennifer granholm and democratic jack of all trades michael feldman. folks, let me go around the warren in the early going tonight. you are looking for, tommy one thing you are looking for that you think will tell the tale. gimme a sense of where things are. i am looking in michigan.
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i want to make sure the turnout in detroit is high. michigan obviously being a last-minute state they were vying for. feeling really good. it continues at the level that it has, reportedly through the day. i think that is going to tell us a lot about florida and their election. i think, clearly, trump has got to win ohio and florida. in thisis a gimme business. what happened in florida, where does the vote go, and i would remind everybody that the panhandle of florida is a central time, so there will be a lot of vote cast in the east before republican panhandle comments. we learnedmatalin, george w. bush and his wife did not vote for donald trump or hillary clinton. they left their presidential line blank and just voted down
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ballot. just throwing that in there. what are you looking for early tonight now that you know how your former boss voted? mary: all of the afro mentioned and as -- after mentioned. floridanot call precipitously. might have to wait until new mexico. it is a little early for me. >> you are raining on my parade. john: any of you know anything, heard anything that is a fact that gives you some indication of what is happening, any of you? >> we have all heard lots of things. anchor: barry, i want to go back around the horn and start with you. you said trump had a 100% chance of winning. we talked you down to 90%. i still think, he is going to
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win. it is over.nk your audience should know that you do not bet, so i do not have any skin in this game, but whatever happens tonight, the forces that have propelled his thatdacy and the forces are creating the tension and the republican party do not go away with whatever the outcome is tonight, but i am not calling it yet. against them, i mean. anchor: there is an unprecedented experiment going on where the charm campaign has relied on the public and national committee for its ground game. how has that gone,? >> we'll know more when we see the results because the ground game almost by definition is kind of hard to see. i think the republicans have done better this time, but they have been outspent tremendously in the ground game by the clinton campaign, by the democrats. that has got to have some effect, but trump is trying to
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do something the old-fashioned way. haley: to make up through enthusiasm, the turnout of his voters as compared to the spending of money on an organizational plan. anchor: michael feldman, what should hillary clinton say to trump supporters? michael: whatever the outcome to margin is, she will have reach out to voters who do not agree with her because whatever be seenin is, it will largely as a repudiation of her opponent. she will need to do some work to lay claim to the outcome. whatever happens, we are talking about a 50-50 senate, a deeply divided country. she is aware of that. you have heard that in her remarks. she will have to reach across the isle to get anything done and frankly, i think the country, if they can agree on anything, is fatigued and the
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-- and the satisfied with the process. well whomeveray you are. >> totally agree. that is not going to happen. her strategy really is to reach across and the first things, if she wins tonight, that she will be pushing from a policy perspective, are all things that republicans and democrats have been supporting. tommy the person closest to you who is voting for trump and why. it would be my dad because he cannot bear to leave the republican party. he feels such a royalty. -- a loyalty. ultimately, he feels such a loyalty to the republican party that he could not bear to -- your dad is mary matalin?
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[laughter] anchor: hillary clinton will almost certainly do what barack obama did. she did this thing earlier in the campaign where she said a lot of donald trump supporters were deplorable. a memory for a lot of trump voters. how does she reach out for them? the campaignic of is going to be as important afterthought as the rhetoric on election night and beyond. michael: that is what she does. to the governor's point, she is going to have a supreme court nominee is that is litigated in the lame duck. that will be an important signal. there will be other decisions she will have to make in terms of her legislative and the first agenda in hundred days in the course that she charts. through that, she will be communicating very clearly what her intentions are. >> right off the bat to the
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folks who went on the republican side. michael: don't forget, it she played her politics very well when she got to the senate. she is a underestimated in that regard. anchor: you all stay here. more discussion with you and with our political star-studded lineup will be coming up next "ith our "with all due respect special election coverage after a word from our sponsors.
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anchor: we are back with an election day panel so big it is going my mind. matalin,bour, mary
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jennifer granholm, mike feldman. there is a lotr, of talk that the republican party has been torn asunder by donald trump's nomination. it is no more overstated than people who do not think the same problems affect the democratic party. bernie sanders driven the democratic party even further to barack obama and hillary clinton have had to chase them there in order to win the nomination. both parties have big divisions , sanders goties 43% of the democratic primary vote against clinton and got 43 percent or 44%. anchor: bernie sanders is a big supporter of hillary clinton. your friend george bush did not even vote for the republican nominee. it seems like a bigger division on that level. haley: i think that is a fact that is detrimental to the future of the party and also detrimental to some of the people who behaved that way.
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life is a series of choices. the choices hillary clinton or donald trump, i will vote for donald trump every time. i want to go back to something i will mention earlier that a think is understated. what are the problems she faces? both trump is she went and that he wins face the problems that -- both trump if he wins and clinton if she wins, americans have a bad opinion of both of them. it muchthat makes harder, not impossible, but much harder to try to pull people together, particularly quickly. i think people, michael, had a very important point. people do not want to see what you do for a while before they start listening to what you are saying. anchor: mary, i want to go to the question that was just asked. registered as libertarian in the course of this cycle. you are an example of someone
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who felt the party ceased to represent a lot of what you thought it used to represent. how deep you think the divisions are in the party? i did vote for them. to pivot off of the previous discussion which is important, no matter who wins tonight, the premise of the answers was that the answer is on how to be found in the district of columbia, inside the beltway. that is exactly what the country , both parties, has identified as the problem. whoever wins should do what bill clinton did in the early 90's, which is look to successful governors. case, that is these successfully run states there. look at what the big city reform mayors, governors like haley or scott walker did, look at what is working.
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this is not about trying to make washington work. we know what the policy prescriptions are that are successful. that is like saying the republican party needs do nothing more than the outcome based. if a policy works and we have evidence that it works, that is continue it. if it does not, stop it. that is a promise the democrats could buy into as well. working with mayors and governors to get policy and export best practices from on the ground, bottom-up strategy is something that could get both sides on board. anchor: is the democratic party now a clinton variety again -- party again? what is the clinton brand of democratic politics? jennifer: i think clinton's a brand will really be this notion of her whole fame, "stronger together." she will build a cabinet that look like america. i think she really does, she wants to reach out particularly to the white males in michigan
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who have felt the rug pulled out from under them by a trade agreements that have taken their job away. she really wants to listen and hear them. i think it is a great opportunity for her to be inclusive. billr: we know what a clinton democrat is, what is a hillary clinton democrat? veryel: i think she is pragmatic. she is going to have to work with that dynamic and reach across the isle to do so. i think she will do it very quietly and under the radar screen between now and the day she is sworn in, if she wins tonight, and go back to some of the relationships that she used so effectively when she governed. i think she will do that as president. anchor: governor barbour, let me ask you this. do you think of hillary clinton does win that she will receive an open hand from a lot of republicans in washington who want to try to work with her in
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a bipartisan way it or will they way or will -- there be an attitude? has run her campaign to the far left. she has not been like bill clinton who tried to get up the middle, a new kind of democrat. "the era of big government is over," he said. she is for bigger government, more regulation of anything that moves. the idea, if that is going to be her agenda -- anchor: we have got to cut you off and go to break. we will be right back. ♪
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>> rosalind: rosalind: will you accept >> the results of the election matter who wins -- >>
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will you accept the results of the election no matter who wins? >> no, i do move to canada. >> i think trump will win. >> will you accept it graciously from a candidate who has deserved grace? >> moving to bermuda. . >> there is a lot of fraud going on in the elections. anchor: those were some skeptical supporters at donald trump's bigly rally. dunn, a former white house communications director. mike murphy, the head of jeb bush's super pac. folks, great to have you here. mike, when you listen to those voters at the top and clinton rally, they are very similar and not going to be happy, not just unhappy, but they reject the outcome.
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what do you do about that? how big a problem is that that the partisans on both sides are ready to reject the outcome? a culture now up i am right, you are evil. they are all criminals. what you need is a lot of grace from your political leaders in both parties, which traditionally, we have had. this year, that is an open question. anchor: anita, do you think we have an absence of grace on the part of the two nominees? you probably can expect to see a great deal of grace from one of the nominees win or lose. i think, the other one who has publicly said he will wait and see whether or not you accept the results of the election, a lack of grace is probably not his biggest problem in this election. mike is right. the reality is, we are at a place where you do not get the results you want, the other side cheated, lied, the system was rigged, and that is a problem
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for both political parties moving forward. anchor: mike, paul ryan said to if hillary clinton wins, if paul ryan says to you, can i say rise as speaker and corporate with hillary clinton, what is your answer? mike: it is noble to die trying if you are going to die anyway. it will probably not stop the radical elements of the conference and he will get nothing. i think he will be tested because we will lose a few seats, not the majority, and some of the people who lose will a more pro-ryan, but i think tougher attitude by the speaker to push rather than trying to accommodate is his best strategy, but it is high risk. anchor: totally agree with that. anita, it is clear from the public data and what the campaigns are saying that republicans have done better than they might have done, holding their own in a lot of places. what do you attribute that? anita: it is a throwback
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to the way senate elections used to take on their own dynamics so you were able to see split tickets and even able to see the party that did not win the white house picking up seats. democrats in 1984 and 1988, it used to be that it used to be the way that politics worked. i think republican incumbents, some of them have done a very good job at distancing themselves from their party's nominee and has enabled them to claim a patina of independence that i think voters are looking for this year. it remains to be seen how good a job they have done whoever the next leader is. they will be leading a caucus where the odds are, every single senator will be able to cast a veto on anything that will happen. this prospects for gridlock moving have not happened in this election. you, do youe ask
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think democrats will retake the senate or end up falling short? anita: i believe they will retake the senate. think: what are do you dds do youd -- what o think clinton has a winning? anita: somewhere between 538 and the upshot. i would say i am in the 80's. closer to -- anchor: do you think it would be an early night or late night tonight? anita: in 2012, the election ended up getting called shortly after the west close closed -- west coast closed. i would anticipate you would see something that potentially you could see something along those lines. aat is not as simple question. i do believe she is going to win. i am not sure she will win as early as the president did in 2012. is goinghink florida to behead trump by 8:30. while it it will ta all night
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to get -- while it will take on mike to get the poll counts in, -- it will take all night to get the poll counts in. it is hard in the pennsylvania's and the illinois of the presidential year. the best case for us could be 50-50, but put a gun to my head and we lose narrowly. florida is a state i have worked in a lot and i have always been dubious about trump's ability to carry it. i think trump may narrowly lose ohio, too. i called around to the best ground people i know in florida for the last two days, and i could not find one of them who things will pull this off. that -- theoma's only ones who thought it could be pulled off where the one to
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thought there was a secret populist fervor. stay in your respective chairs, we want to talk to some more. we will do that after this not so bigly break. listen to us on the radio. we will be right back. ♪
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anchor: we are back. mike murphy is still with us in a new york and anita dunn joining us remotely. anita, who would you say's he started clinton campaign besides hillary clinton? who has been the star of that campaign? mook: i would say, robby
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gets a huge amount of credit for this campaign and is definitely a star. i think the communications operation, starting with jen paul mary, christina shockey, christina reynolds, all of them have done a great job. marlon marshall, a star. they have done a very good campaign and like their candidate, they have demonstrated a degree of resilience which really pays off in presidential politics. anchor: what is your view looking at pros operating? mike: i have to make the somewhat ironic point that in 2012, when they were in trouble, obama was in trouble, it was bill clinton who really through the lifeline. here we are, michelle obama was the turning point in the race against trump. anchor: poetry, not irony. tonight, --y win if they lose against trump, they have to go to campaign jail. anchor: are the things they did that were errors?
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mike: i still do not know what her messages. democratices in circles that the weakest link with her speech because she is the one speechwriter they cannot fire. that said, the ground it out, she has panicked. -- they have not panicked. anchor: incredible. they had some really low points. a donor saying this robby mook guy is in over his head. a plus.give him an anchor: they did not let a vacuum ever occur. mike: they did a great job on it. the wider messaging, they never really fixed her, but trump was so weak, it was there for her from the beginning. anchor: i will ask you both about the trump campaign little bit. anita, i am out going to ask you
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to be mean about anybody who works there. is there anybody who you look at who you thought did an exemplary job in a difficult situation where you saw a comedic it are, pollster, strategists, where he said, -- a communicator, a strategist that did a good job? i do not know many of the people on that campaign, but anne has done as good a could, having been dealt a difficult hand. nbc news reporting on the shared exit poll. favorable opinion, unfavorable opinion of the candidates? clinton, unfavorable, 54%, trump, 61%. 20 talk, obama, 46% on election day and mitt romney, 50%.
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can somebody win an election with an unfavorable that high? mike: i don't think so, but this is the year of the double unfavorable. people are picking pain this year. trump campaign against that. that is why i think and have thought all along he would never be able to win a general election. ask you about the republican party and people who supported and endorsed trump. there is a long history of republican writers who said this is a fork in the road, a fundamental russian. are you with trump, or not? if you are with trump, you will have a scarlet "t" forever. i am personally hoping for show trials. i do not know. letterso get a set of and use because i love that home
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improvement commission. i think there will be a stain, but politics is about coalition building, so i think there will be a lot of forgiveness. some, because it is the smart thing to do, some because people are useful in the future. it is on everybody's permanent record. anchor: anita, let me ask you, i was in philadelphia and i watched president obama and the first lady testifying on hillary clinton's behalf. are you at all surprised -- president obama without there are lots of her in these last couple of weeks, more than anyone expected. how surprised were you and what do you think was motivating that? anita: one, i was not surprised at all. it even during the primary and 2008, he always respected her. -- in 2008, he always respected her. i was not surprised to see him plunge into the campaign to the extent that he did once he did not feel donald trump should be
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president and he believes hillary clinton should be president. i think that the enthusiasm with which michelle obama kind of plunge into this campaign was really interesting to watch. this was very much a moment for her that i think was important for hillary clinton and equally important for michelle obama. anchor: mike? if donald trump loses badly? anchor: we are all checking our phones. anchor: if donald trump loses badly, what should people like reince priebus say? should they say hillary clinton was such a formidable candidate that of course we lost badly? mike: i would not try to spin it. we have conducted the experiment that a lot of people in the republican party wanted to do which was to run a pure all right candidate. anchor: we cannot say we ran it on all right candidate.
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mike: he has been selling trump because he is the party chairman. he is off the hook now. anchor: i know you would like that intellectually. mark: if you were the medications director for the republican national committee, what should he say -- if you directorcommunications for the republican national committee, what should he say? mike: as far as the spin of it all, they have had enough of these of the trump, they would say, there was tactical errors made. the rnc did a great job. we had three different latino websites nobody looked at. we had blah blah blah. he has his own politics to deal with because there will be opposition. he will go off in that world. what i will be watching is how the energy in the party moves to a solution.
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say trump was not a real grievance conservative. the reform conservatives will say we need new politics. they want to see pragmatism, conservative pragmatism. say, trump, let us is projected the winner in north carolina and florida. what would happen in the clinton boiler room at that point, in the psyche of democrats at that point? anita: i think the psyche of democrats will be somewhere similar to where it was two weeks ago when director comey decided he wanted to announce 11 days before the election that he was going to reopen the e-mail investigation. it would not be great, but at the same time, she has always had a number of paths to get to the presidency and donald trump has always had to navigate a
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very narrow path that i do not believe he will, they are hypothetical, frankly, is not going to happen. i want to go to something mike said. the tendency when this kind of things happens if you turn around and say we had a terrible candidate. we had a candidate with 61% lostive, of course we the candidacy. and that ignores much deeper problems the republican party has, particularly with the demographic changes in america. problems that reince priebus outlined in the post-2012 report that they did and the fact that we are sitting here for years later looking at a bigger disaster potentially suggests something about where that party needs to start looking and it is not the candidate. it is a deeper problem for them. anchor: i will just say, with all due respect, given what expectations are now, if donald trump is projected the winner in north carolina and florida, the
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correct answer is, there will be panic. anita: i did kind of comparator 11 days ago. -- compare it to 11 days ago. anchor: mike, thank you. i need a, thank you. we will they get into a election day digits, when we come back. ♪
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welcome back. we are calling the experts now. bloomberggue from politics, sasha eisenberg. we will get to some of that later. a huge disparity within
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individual states of polls we all think are pretty reputable. expand how that happens. pollsters are having a hard time making sense out of all of these. there are a lot more polls happening at this time and the polling industry things all of the people paying for those polls, but what has happened in this cycle more than other cycles, and contradict me if you disagree, but there has been inflation and deflation in the electorate. once you pass our likely voter stream, you are in our poll. that seems static. in reality, we have had so many shocking with that would normally be a watershed in an election where people go, that changes my vote or, i am fed up and not going to vote, or, my vote is not really matter. ann: finding it and thinking it is contained is tricky. you are involved
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in a thing called "vogue master. -- vote caster." money ihis is a startup am involved in that has been tracking turnout in person across eight states today and gets to the, what anna is talking about. we do not know what turnout is going to be and what the composition of the electorate is going to look like. we have seen people start to use early vote data to inform our idea of who is voting, but we do not know whether early vote is cannibalizing or bringing new voters into the process. election day is the one time he did start to look at who is voting. pollingoing large-scale and we have veterans of the bush and obama election they were rooms on this and we have had hundreds of people literally counting the number of people who cast ballots. to show where turnout is and how
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the votes are likely to be breaking down over the course of the day. exit poll data is starting to spread. people look at the first wave and start to pick the clinton cabinet rather than focus on the fact that the first wave is often not correct. what do you look at tonight? which of the demographic questions are you looking at? you want to look at the racial composition of the electorate. the white chair of the electorate has been going down and the latino share of the electorate has been going up. sure what itw for is going to look like, but early exits on cnn show the white mighty be ticking down and the latino share is ticking up. anchor: not great for trump. to state the obvious. [laughter] turnup mayamerican
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be ticking down as well. we should be asking if it does down, is it tick because it is the first time in three election cycles that there has not been an african-american on the ballot? >> if this looks like a party where the spine of over performing minority group within the coalition looks to be hispanics, who are growing and growing and some of the largest and most dynamic states in the country, that goes contrary to what has been the historical identity of the democratic party, which is a party of african-americans, organized labor and other white liberals. if this is a party with hispanics, asians and educated whites at the core, it will drive different issues. of the most interesting race issues he will see in the electorate after this election is the divide within the white voting segment. anchor: got to go. issenberg, sasha
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thank you. we'll be right back. ♪ . .
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mark: no flipping. our bigmark: coverage of the election continues with another full hour of "with all due respect." you can follow us all night on bloomberg politics.com. john and i will be back after this. ♪
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♪ you are looking at live election night events of hillary clinton and donald trump, not
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far from where we sit here in gotham city. it is 6:00 p.m. on the east coast, which means the first polls are starting to close in indiana and kentucky. both states have areas in the central time zone, so we don't expect official results for another hour, but we are getting a first batch of exit cold data from battleground states or of country. african-american voters chose hillary clinton, slightly lower than the 93% president obama got in 2012. the same goes for hispanic 55% voted for hillary clinton, down from 71% who voted for barack obama last time around. donald trump was supported by 27%, the same percentage mitt romney snagged four years ago. how much at this early stage and this partial data, how much can we read into what we know? mark: next to nothing.
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i would move to the next topic. if those numbers held out, it would not be great for hillary clinton, but ink about the way these exit polls work. i've been dealing with this for a quarter-century now. the samples are not that big. the stuff is done as people are leaving polling places. think about how me african-americans are sampled to produce that first bit of data. it is meaningless. john: and you would have to marry that with early vote data to have a nuanced picture of anything. i will say this -- if it is true donald trump gets the same percentage of hispanic was that matt romney got, that is an astonishing thing. mitt romney, for all of his problems on the way he handled poorly didtion issue not do anything to anger that population flagrantly the way
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trump did. it would be one of the great mysteries of our time if he performs level with mitt romney. mark: the other thing that skews this is that it is not national. it doesn't really tell you who is going to be elected resident. i'm a big believer of getting all the data in. it's great to know as a country not just who one but why. i wouldn't worry too much about exit polls right now. do something. go hug your kids. the white house is not the only story tonight control of the senate is hanging in the balance. we have been tracking close to a dozen of them. house -- ifhite clinton wins the white house, there is harry reid's seat in the matter. they still need to pick up four more to win the majority. or so races, which
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ones are you looking at to tell the tale of majority control? john: i'm super interested in new hampshire and pennsylvania. they are candidates who have been in the races and have been doing their best but they are battleground states at the presidential level and they are decent candidates, but not incredible candidates. pat toomey and kelly ayotte, if they both go down and we will know that relatively early, it seems that would tip the balance and you could see enough of a democratic wave is happening that a number of other incumbents will be embattled. tok: they have the ability avoid a national flow, but senator burr in north carolina and senator blunt in missouri, both of them did not take as seriously the challenge that they would have competitive races. are both in seats and i think both of them took for granted that they would be ok.
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blunt probably got the best of a credit challenger. i have been bullish on republicans because they've held up better than you thought but you could see a wave with a lot of democrats winning senate races. we will be back with more of our election night coverage right after this. ♪
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mark: joining us is a big trump supporter, a former advisor to matt romney and informal adviser to speaker ryan.
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representing the democratic side, the former tennessee congressman, harold ford. and the former deputy campaign manager for martin o'malley pasta craddick campaign and senior adviser to moveon.org. john: this is the room -- mark: you want trump to win, you want from to lose will stop what have you heard in the last round of data that lead you to believe trump has a chance? guest: i think you saw state polls tightening and the enthusiasm gap. you always want to have enthusiasm on your side when the race is tight. we are about to find out if it's going to be tight or not tight. i think clinton had momentum and that momentum
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slowed down with the us the eye story, but i don't think it slowed down enough and that chapter seems to have closed. i think we see lots of evidence of tremendous infrastructure, clinton blount -- clinton ground operations, it is pretty extorted. all the power video -- powerful video that you see of rallies -- there's a lot going on at those rallies -- i don't think there's a correlation between what's going on with that and turning out the voters will stop i think the clinton campaign has the infrastructure to do that and trump does not. you aboutnt to ask the comey news we had over the weekend. do you think it came too late to help her given that there were those 10 days -- 25 million people voted the between then and the full exoneration will start to come to late to help her out? both assertions from the director were weird. the fact that he came out and
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said what he said in an to come back on a sunday in the middle of all of the games going on to say there was nothing there. we will find out if it had a real impact will stop i think a lot of voters had made their minds up. objectionse of dan's about trump, you did not really change after that. if you didn't like hillary clinton, you did not like her any better. getting ready for a clinton victory this evening. guest: i totally agree. when he made the announcement, it was 11 days before the election. the thing we forget is people were already voting. been votes might have baked in. it changed much, but we will see after this election. to dan's point, i think the ground game and the field operation, as a field operation,
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it will move the needle a couple of percentage points and i think that's the difference we will see tonight. we will see who had the real ground game and i believe hillary clinton -- what donald trump is trying to do is push out low propensity voters and you can't do that. it's difficult to make that happen without a ground game. >> we all know that it is the committees that do the victory plans. it is the rnc and the dnc. trump came in with not much of a field operation. committees that do this and we will see how well organized the committees were ground can that the make up a couple of points but so can the idea that you are enthusiastic about your candidate. on the fbi piece, the one thing i'd did get was people calling who are republicans or conservatives that did not want to go for trump.
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during that time, i think more people decided she was not an alternative i can support. guest: you just said the committees -- i ask this respectfully. is that the trump campaign leading to lay the groundwork that the rnc failed the? if the criticism is during the campaign, the a did not have an extensive ground game, that's a fair analysis, but the rnc has been talking about this ground game for two years and i think it's going to be much more effective. donald isn't think going to blame reince priebus bep john: he might not blaming anyone. kellyanne conway was on msnbc and she says the thing that would worry me is if we
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didn't have the full infrastructure and then talked about candidates who are not voting for him. mark: before 2000, if a network projection was made, trump wins florida, they didn't care what the vote totals were. did not do due diligence. tonight, if trump is projected to win in florida or clinton is projected to win in florida, will you accept that or is the proper thing to do say these are news organizations, let's count the votes. they will let it play out. remember when ford went to sleep and did not concede? he had reasons to and i think that might be where we are. mark: should the trump campaign accept that in florida? years, we'vest 200
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gone through a process of fair and free elections and the peaceful transfer of our. i would hope those candidates would do that. mark: not accepting results, should they accept projections as gospel? cbs news says clinton has won florida. if donald trump doesn't accept that, is there something wrong? guest: i think we should wait -- usually you know until california is called in. yep to wait. mark: i'm talking about certification of the vote. guest: i think we wait for certification of the vote. area he really needed a ground game was this 11 days. if he had a serious effort not just dependent on the senate candidates in battleground races, in the toughest come up there are senate races will stop if you don't have a specific round game, those 11
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days, if he got more focused -- rnc handles the ground game. that is actually happening. i think it's right that you have these key senate races and some of them were well-funded. i think the lesson tonight is going to be donald trump was not a dragon those races will stop some of those races in indiana and missouri, donald trump will help them win. when the romney campaign effectively merged with the rnc, they had a substantial field operation. it wasn't like they just did turnkey over to the rnc. so the idea that it is on the rnc to carry it down the field is an overstatement. guest: the dnc and rnc run the victory programs. you can duplicate it with the presidential campaign or you want. the 2008worked on
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campaign and the 2012 campaign. the onus is not entirely on the committee, but what happens is the hillary clinton campaign has been running her ground game for over a year. so you have had people and then they hired more people to continue the ground game and they came together and worked with the committee and other down ballot candidates. guest: i think one? coming out of this election is why didn't i'll try to write a one hundred million dollars? the donors are going to be frustrated. mark: stick with us because the gang of four is sticking with us. more from them after this. ♪
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>> the thing that would worry me is if we didn't have the full support of the republican infrastructure. it would be too bad we win narrowly and it not because democrats for this and that was havether, because we former presidents not voting for us and former nominee's not voting for us. when you talk about growing the growing itidea was but having that faced together and i think it is unfortunate. trump'sat was donald campaign manager, kelly and conway seeming either wearing or defeated. my guests are joining us. i want to go -- you were talking about money and donald trump.
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he said he was going to give $100 million and did not come close. let's talk about that. pretty came into this race saying this is going to beat the $2 billion campaign and moneys going to matter. i have found it hard to point to a place where financial spending more fundraising has made a notable difference. do you disagree? is there a place for money has been pivotal in this general election? there were places where democratic super packs were on the air pounding away at trump and trump was invisible. i don't think doing rallies that cable networks are carrying live our as good as targeted and focused ads. video matters and i think video played a role in this campaign, but the idea that paid advertising would have made a difference is wrong. guest: that is one of the great things about this race is that
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the role of money has been subordinated in some ways to stop we have seen the a lot of money wasted in the primaries on both sides and even if you look at sanders, sanders raised a lot of money in small to nominations. triumph for those who have been campaign-finance advocates. the country matured and that we are going to behave different. bernie sanders raised over $200 million with 9 million people giving i forget the amount -- the average was $27? that is amazing he was able to do that. i think the way money has been raised has changed and this is something i do give to donald trump. he has changed game, but he wasn't able to raise a lot of money. the national polls, if you look at the average, four or five bycentage points, obama won
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that much, but what has been tight is the battleground states have in tight, incredibly tight. when the primaries are dragging on and bernie sanders is spending to attack the hillary clinton campaign, i have to believe that contributed to tightening the race between clinton and trump. the idea money doesn't matter anymore -- it may be less. mark: people have talked about how do the spiriting this is. we have two nominees a lot of people don't like i'll stop talk about things that have been uplifting or that you found inspirational. go. [laughter] guest: i will take it. on our side, average voters felt a lot more empowered. they felt like for, big
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decisions were made by the big guys. it was frustrating for people used to making decisions to feel like they are infinite. how is this happening? there's a political revolution going on and i think it is fantastic. i think there are some rising republican stars like charlie baker who put his name on the nasa -- on the line. i think it's going to be close, but if he pulls it off, it's an inspiring moment. i think he could wind up on the ticket in 2020. i think rob portman ran a model campaign. i think that things that are happening in the environment that are so toxic and graham and every day feel so dark, you have politicians -- the majority of the electorate is going to be women and that we are on the cusp of
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electing a first woman president is phenomenal for women to finally be represented at that level. look at california. forave two women running u.s. senate, one is latino and one is african-american and we can make history in that state loan. that has been race we haven't paid much attention to. about one good thing california is an open primary system. we have to raise the hood in that country. bernie sanders got a lot of votes and donald trump performed well. outsiders on the republican side, there is something happening in the country that happens every 15 or 20 years and we would be foolish on both sides, we have to look at our own party and figure out how you reconcile with the country and how you governed better. one thing that is certain is washington is not delivering the ofults the majority americans want. pulling on both sides says it and we would be foolish not to address it. john: on the democratic side,
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but candidate, focus on a surrogate or staffer -- use the m.v.p. of the clinton campaign? guest: it has to be michelle obama. she has been incredibly phenomenal and you saw her reach her stride on this election cycle. we thought she was amazing in 2012 and she took it a step further. agree.i would if you are talking about the derek jeter of the campaign, granholm has been a good surrogate. trying to ensure that they fought back and corrected the record, no pun intended. [laughter] team,y, the rest of the donald trump has been our best friend. i talked about this with mike murphy. you are in the campaign that think people involved in the campaign are going to wear a scarlet t going forward?
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guest: i was talking to somebody supporting trump the other day -- i speak to them time to time and we had a discussion about 2020 and whether having been for trump or been against trump is going to be a litmus test. people say you were for trump and you are unacceptable. john: what is your answer? guest: i don't know. i don't think we will know for a while. mark: if hillary clinton wins, can paul ryan survive as speaker? guest: paul ryan is in choppy waters and stop this is a heck of a tough time to be in charge of the republican congress. i'm not sure the dynamics of this race have made it easy for him. he raised about $100 million -- for house candidates in a year, that's double what john boehner race.
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paul ryan has been extremely tough on her. if he -- if she wins, will he put out a statement saying i look forward to working with president-elect clinton? we want a wartime speaker. guest: i think if hillary clinton is willing to move to where paul ryan is -- mark: will he say her presidency is dead on arrival? guest: he will not say that. inwill have to deal with her his conference is going to be incredibly divided. u.s. senate democrats -- with if she wants to work paul ryan, she has to move toward him? pilot -- he must be tired. they've gone everywhere. john: thank you all for coming
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in. you guys have been great. [crosstalk] john: how americans describe word?lection in one bigly we will find out when we come back. ♪
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♪ >> hillary clinton is a blank --
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>> smart. >> knowledgeable. >> she's a liar. >> hillary clinton is a nasty woman. >> inspiring. >> in one word or a phrase described donald trump. >> pure evil. >> caricature of a parity. >> a savage. >> whiny little [bleep] >> donald trump is stupid. >> racist. >> donald trump is just vice of. those are some voters who spoke guest in manchester, new hampshire where i was covering a donald trump rally and john was covering one of hillary clinton's final event. joining us in the studio are some people who have a few words to say about it. we are joined here by the professor of religion and african american studies at
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princeton university and a chair for the center of african american studies. in boston, a republican strategist and former campaign manager for carly fiorina's campaign run. where youd everybody stand on your party's nominee. are you for trump or not? i can't be for trump. he's not a republican, he's not a conservative, but i don't know any republicans who are for hillary clinton. mark: tell us who you will vote for? i have been consistent. i voted for none of the above. mark: let me ask you all the same questions i've been asking the guests. anything you have heard today that gives you a sense of where the race stands at the
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presidential level? anything.don't know but in terms of the exit polls, they are not super comfortable. looking at the early vote numbers, i'm very encouraged. votes in the bank and we have 46 million people who have already voted. a lot of folks in battleground states. i think that's the turning point has been the early investment in data by democrats and a clinton campaign going all the way back. we have early voting and there has been a lot of analysis about what we have seen with respect to the obama coalition. what is your take away about nonwhite vote primarily from what we know at this point? guest: there's going to be some realignment of that coalition. was the first african
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american president and he was going to turn out african american voters in a high number. i think we will see a similar number with secretary clinton but i think we have seen an increase in latino and asian voters in a state like north carolina where we have an 80% increase in latinos and asians. over the weekend, there's a great increase in african-american turnout. demographicnk the revolution has already happened. the way people are talking about the repressed african-american turnout, we have seen across the south and increase in numbers and the only decrease was in north carolina. in louisiana, we saw 18% increase in early voting among african american voters. producing all sorts of anxiety, prior to and during suggests
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people are going to have to realign in interesting ways. femaleour party had a candidate, an african-american, a hispanic. what is your party doing to try to expand appeal of -- the appeal of the party to nonwhite voters? guest: i don't think this is about policies. republican policies all along have attracted voters from every walk of life. i don't think donald trump has espoused any of those policies and he doesn't speak conservative. if you look at a state like texas that is a majority minority, republicans still win state wide races, so i don't buy into the idea that, graphics are destiny. just to scare some democrats before the polls are closing, democrats have always one early vote. the question is how far ahead are they on early vote come election day and that's the westjet.
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early tot is a little get too cocky about this but hillary clinton is hoping that lead. the obama coalition was always about president obama and it's why democrats have suffered down ballot when he has been about that -- when he has been on the ticket. the dnc is a shell of what it was. that coalition doesn't exist the way it did in 2012 and this election will have an asterisk because of both candidates hi unpopularity. the prospects for hillary clinton to win are around 70%. even republicans have not into that conventional wisdom. do you think it is more likely donald trump might pull off a surprise or are you with the conventional wisdom assessing what is likely to happen i'm basically: where the conventional wisdom is. i don't think he can get florida, north carolina, new
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hampshire and nevada. even if he got the first three, as we wait for the polls in nevada, that's the hardest one and i don't think he will get it. the early vote numbers only tell part of the story. democrats being ahead in the early vote is just not enough. i would not go to sleep. this is the cubs in the middle of the eighth inning. mark: we are going to talk a little bit about what happens tonight when we come back to stop if you are watching our , youam in washington dc can listen to us on the radio radio. we will be right back. ♪
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♪ back now with more of our
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election night coverage. right some lines off the top of your head that you would like to hillary clinton to say if she wins. going tothink she's have to put forward a vision for the country moving forward. beyond theat looks vitriol of this election cycle. a vision that speaks to the hard-core social misery out of the country and offer i think a to how wecise path are going to change direction. and it's not going to be the kind of feel-good narrative that america is great because america is good. she has to address substantively the pain that is out there across the ideological spectrum and offer a clear vision. mark: typically the winner would have a paragraph praising the job the loser did.
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would you encourage hillary clinton to have a paragraph about donald trump? speak tothink she can trump supporters -- mark: who she called deplorables. guest: she can speak to the other half. [laughter] talk like herould husband and talk about feeling your pain. mark: should she prays trump himself? guest: i think she should ignore him. she should speak to trump as a proxy. she resented a choice and this is what kind of america we want to be. i think that's as far as she goes. the other thing she needs to do, especially this year, is in the country back together. there's a moment of healing in that-- in these speeches matter and i think it is important. going to ask a
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question that may cause you to laugh out loud. do you expect donald trump if he loses to be gracious in defeat? guest: i'm laughing. i think donald trump will not turn down the opportunity to have that many cameras and many television sets on him. gracious may be a bridge too far but i do expect him to concede and be the donald trump we have seen for the last two weeks he has been fairly on message. i think some of that will depend on hillary clinton's town. i think it would be a huge stake to try the i feel your pain. that would not come off as authentic. this is a person who said she was that broke after leaving the white house. hillary clinton needs to find the authentic voice she has failed to find the campaign and say how she's going to talk to paul ryan immediately and on uniting the country, it has to
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feel real, not a fake america is great because america is good when she turns around and calls people a basket of deplorables. donald trump can react to that. he has not perhaps run the most gracious campaign, but i think he will want to speak to his supporters and tell them how much they have accomplished. john: do you accept the premise that there will be a civil war in your party? think the smartest things republicans can do is to look forward and stop arguing about how we got here and whose fault it is and start arguing instead about how we are going to win in 2017 for the seat in virginia. how are we going to win when democrats are on defense? we have the opportunity to build a real senate majority. i think the whose fault is it
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civil war a lot of people have been gleefully predicting is a huge mistake. the question of civil war on the democratic side is also a real question will stop all of this talk about how will hillary clinton work with paul ryan, all of this involves the interesting way compromises parsed in the beltway and it is typically parsed as the left caving to the right's demands. i think in the primary, we saw a over the soul of the democratic party and that hasn't ended. strikingransit workers in philadelphia. we have folks protesting the dakota pipeline and folks still organizing foreman wage. there is energy on the left, so she thinks she can bank back to the right and not have a revolt on the part of those who were already skeptical, she's going to be in for a surprise will -- for a surprise.
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guest: the difference between what's going on on the left and a chasm on the right is not even comparable. there is an entire circus on the right. if paul ryan is begun thousand hillary clinton is president. it sounds like elizabeth moran and bernie sanders have a veto on any deal she could offer paul ryan. guest: that's one point of entry. mark: if she want to legislate in her first year, it's going to have to go through speaker ryan. guest: what does that mean? mark: that's what i'm asking. guest: i think when you are president, you get to set the agenda. mark: president obama has been president -- he is still pushing those agenda items and i think president clinton will work with
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senator warren, with senator anders to set that agenda she's going to work with the administration -- guest: there's a huge difference between the mandate president obama had in 2008 -- i don't think anyone thinks of hillary clinton whence, she's one with a mandate about her agenda. i don't know what her agenda is except she's not donald trump. if her mandate is i'm not donald trump, i don't see how she's going to cater to her far left and work with republicans to get anything through. ist's why infrastructure something both republicans and hillary clinton's democrats have been able to talk about and you are completely right, there will be a freeze in the clinton white house because she will be paralyzed without a mandate from the electorate and her far left holding her hostage. happy election day to all three of you. john: stay out of trouble
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tonight. mark: when we come back, we will check in with our reporters standing by at the trump and clinton election vote watch events. ♪
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♪ >> i don't think the media is ever fair. >> the media is corrupt. >> the media has been ridiculous. not really focusing on the real important issues. >> of course it has been biased. it's so blatant. >> the media has given too much credit to trump. they have gone really easy on him. >> the things that have come out
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of wikileaks, you guys are not covering that. >> donald trump says everyone is against me, so all of the sudden the media backs off. they were fair and now they are not fair anymore. >> it absolutely ridiculous and people like you, bloomberg, everybody. >> at times it has been unfair .o both candidates >> yes, i think the media has been biased. finally something trump and clinton supporters can agree on. especially that last guy. takes fromsome bigly some folks at a clinton rally and trump rally. tonight, clinton and trump, only a mere two miles away from each other. hillary clinton is on the west side of manhattan and donald trump is at the new york hilton in midtown. joining us from the clinton andt is margaret hallet
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kevin's really is at the trump event. i know it is early, let's start there. what is the vibe over there? margaret: this is a happy and excited crowd. age logo behind me, but you can't see the give you looking pantsuits scattered route this -- powder blue and weird cantaloupe colored. i'm not sure where the seats are being procured, but they are feeling good about hitting that 270 mark. couple of questions about what happens in north carolina and what happened in the senate, but if they are worried she doesn't have it -- doesn't have it, it is not being brought up here. kevin: we have, rosa who just talked to reporters. i was talking to some trump
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advisors and what they are projectinghey are confidence similar to what the clinton campaign is doing. they say there are key counties in florida that are underreporting and the hispanic vote has gotten out there and i think they are trying to push back against that narrative, but sources i talked with have their eyes on michigan. they view this as a key state with 16 electoral votes that if one of the other battleground states were to lose, they could make a play for it. clearly they are behind in this race, but they are holding out confidence at a high voter turnout will get them over the edge. abouti've heard a lot that place. it seems like this is a miniature themepark they have built there. margaret: you might have heard that there's a glass ceiling here. there is an interesting group of people i hope we will be able to
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find later this evening in another section of this wide-ranging facility. it's a group of hillary's oldest friends dating back to her schoolgirl days in illinois. a woman who was her best friend in the sixth grade and is the wrangler of this group. there are about 100 of them and a larger, extended group. they started out at the 9/11 museum for a somber visit and will end up here tonight. we are expecting some of the celebrities we've seen in these posing days. we don't have speaker slips yet. that space holds approximately how many people? when you see the area that has been handoff, it's not as big as you would think. arereal number to look for the stages outside that will accommodate the others. mark: it seems there is an irony
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here where we went through donald trump, his main show of rallies with thousands of people and the trump event is nowhere near that egg. -- that big. >> we are essentially in a hilton conference room. there's probably just as many media reporters here inside the trump campaign headquarters as there will be people attending on their own. there is a section cornered off for the ip people like rudy giuliani who was with donald trump in trump tower earlier today. donald trump woke up and voted for himself earlier today with notably missing from the new hampshire rally last night as well as his daughter and son-in-law. after that, he took it easy and
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hung out with his closest advisors and family members final reception of sorts in trump tower. then he will make his way over here to address the nation and, to a larger extent, the world will stop john: does donald trump have both of his speeches written? >> the advisors i'm talking to our mom on that, but they have set up teleprompters. did hillary clinton right both a victory speech and concession speech? margaret: they are not giving up on theirs either. they are planning for a win tonight. that is where most of their effort has been for days. mark: thank you both. you are fantastic. they will be covering the campaign's all night long and we will be right back. ♪
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hillary clinton could become the first woman elected president, but the investigation into how investigation raise questions about her trustworthiness. to "dream 0 -- drain the swamp," although many have turned their backs on him among comments about women and immigrants. it takes 270 electoral votes to win. we await results from the first poll closing, virginia and georgia among of the most important. >> particularly how much of a clinton has taken the college-educated vote away. how donald trump has performed
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in comparison to mitt romney, and whether or not she has solidified that turnout among this more affluent educated voters thought to be core to her potential pastor success. >> tremendous numbers in terms of early voting. the clinton campaign especially people voting early pushes. >> the number of touch as they have had, the number of times people received a text with outreach from the clinton campaign has more than doubled then -- double than the jump campaign. that really matters when people make up their minds about going to the polls. pull over,s might especially states like florida, ohio, and virginia. virginia, georgia, indiana, south carolina, kentucky in vermont all closing.

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