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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  December 7, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EST

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welcome to "bloomberg markets." julie: we will take you from washington to rome and cover stories out of india, and theand and the u.s. next hour. but first, at&t executives are set to testify on a proposed merger. randall stephenson and jeff dukas and mark you can are about to go before the senate judiciary subcommittee on antitrust, commission policy on capitol hill. if the two companies are able to go ahead with the acquisition -- the committee chairman michael lee and a ranking member will give opening remarks as well. we will continue to bring you updates on this hearing over the next hour. you can also watch right now on live no. minutes into the
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trading day and abigail doolittle has a sideways day. abigail: not a lot happening. we have the dow and s&p 500 day sickly flat. biotech shares are weighing us down. this puts the dow on pace for yet another record close. interesting here is that we did have a nice rally in asia and europe to some degree. ahead of the ecb decision tomorrow with the hope that the ecb will extend the bond buying program. that rally is not extending here at this time. another reason for global investors to be optimistic. will be going to the bloomberg, this is a chart of analysts bringing up their profit forecasts. we can see all the way to the side that analysts are bringing up the profit forecast on the goals basis to a level not seen since 2011.
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this is very positive and stocks at the end of the day trade on profit outlook so perhaps this that investorsse aren't sharing? when we take a look at the euro ahead of the ecb meeting, it might not support the idea that the ecb and ecb president will expend the buying program. we see the euro trading higher. if investors that it was going to be extended, typically that would weigh on the currency. but it is worth noting that the euro is down after the u.s. election by about 5%. and finally, a quick look at health care stocks, trading lower. this is after donald trump said that he is planning on bringing drug prices lower. that is not good for the distributors and shares are trading lower. stocks are rising here. not so much there. three days of gains.
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the banks are the third-best performer. followed by basic resources. to theire risen highest level since january, taking their rebound since july of a five-year low to 45 percent. take a listen to this. the stoxx 600 is breaking out of the bearish channel and it is crossing above a key technical resistance level, representing a 50% reach race meant of the fx drop from december 2015 to february 2000 16. let's get to the banks. this is driving banks up today. credit suisse up by 6%. earlier rising by as much as 8.7%. lower profit targets into units. of a 1 another cut billion and costs.
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-- forced to adjust his turnaround plan. the second time they have had to readjust the plan to organize the company. thatis interesting is before today, the stock lost 41% since he was first announcing his reorganization plan last october. investors are questioning his ambitious profit goals. shares are rallying today up i-65 5%. this is the big decline are on the stoxx 600. shares are down as much as 12.5%. shares down 13% now. rejecting a belgian competitor. this is the final takeover offer and says that regulatory triggered by the deal would hamper operations and hurt employees. raising the offer last week to 5.75 euros a share. that was proposed earlier in
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november. it also made good on its shares to shareholders. european outgrow the in the three years through 2018. it does reflect better economic performance and a steady drop in unemployment and high property prices. the spanish gauge, fallen by 13% since the start of two thousand 15 versus an 8% gain for the dax. julie? onie: now, let's check in the first word. in indonesia, an earthquake has killed almost 100 people and has destroyed dozens of buildings. hundreds of people have been
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injured. the earthquake was magnitude 6.5. it struck on the coast. in 2004, more than 100,000 people died after an earthquake triggered a devastating sue not me. a plane belonging to pakistan's national carrier crash takeoff. crasheds say the plane in a village near the town of -- about 45 miles northwest from the capital. there were no immediate details. renewing the fight against trump travel to fayetteville for the second stop on his thank you tour. he said the impact of his presidency will be felt globally. a we are representative to large extent of what is happening in the world. the world is looking up to us but they haven't been looking up to us much and they will begin looking up again. we will be good to the world,
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not just good from the country. also also repealed -- he revealed his pick for secretary of defense. and donald trump is time magazine's person of the year. if they gave the title to the person who has the greatest influence for better or worse. in an interview, he said being named a person of the year is a great honor. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. julie: once again, at&t and time warner executives are talking about their merger. will cuband mark q answer questions before the subcommittee. we are now getting the opening statements. and we will continue to bring you updates on this statement.
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let's get back to the markets. global stocks rise on the hopes as investors prepare for the ecb. uncertainty does linger before -- concludes tomorrow. jpmorgan, $1.7 trillion. david lebovitz, thank you for coming in. ofre is the assumed stimulus the incoming trump administration. do you buy the thesis that the seeets say we are going to an uptick in inflation as a result of all of this? will see anatural we dramatic uptick but it will go up as we move into 2017. fundamentally, what we know about policies on the table is that donald trump wants to inject more demand into an economy that is running out of
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supply. the way that manifests itself is higher inflation so we do expect that along with more stable commodity prices to push inflation higher into the next year. julie: the debate and the discussion has been, will that be further stimulus for growth? or will it provide a cap to growth? exactly. our view is that a little bit more inflation wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. we have spent eight years trying to figure out how to get inflation to accelerate amid the opes of fiscal stimulus, it seems to be a step in that direction. at the end of the day, inflation is fundamentally too much money chasing too few goods. wage growth would hurt corporate profits. we could take that in line with rising commodity prices and more fiscal spending by the government, and we could see inflation pickup to a point where it is detrimental but we think that is late 2017, early 2018 story. when interest rates are
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low and rising, the correlation with equities is positive. exactly. so next year we may see low inflation scares with the year-over-year comparisons on energy prices become more normal but it is suggested that the multiple ofontain a 18 times earnings as long as inflation is between 0%-4%. if interest rates are a forward itk of where it may be, could be changes in rates. mark: so inflation needs to remain in check. equity market should be able to generate made to single-digit returns? is that right? exactly. i'm not betting on the market multiple going that much higher. i think if sentiment stays where it is and it can be supported by a little bit more wage growth
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next year, as well as lower incomes, that i'm not betting on the multiple. i'm betting on the earnings growth. and reese on the first quarter of positive earnings growth over that first year. that needs to continue rising and i don't think investors are willing to pay much more than they are today. which means that fundamentals will be the primary driver, going forward. are talking primarily about u.s. stocks. and we talk a lot about what happens in europe, as well. given where the two regions are in their respective cycle, do you see the value in europe, as well? or do you think the u.s. is a better bet right now? think there is value outside of the u.s. but for us, it is longer-term. even our expectations around the dollar, for a u.s. based investor, it will be tough to generate a return outside the u.s..
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here, you could get the currency translation effect at the end of the day. your point, emerging markets are still the engine of growth for the global economy. so we don't think that it should be dismissed. but we think they may need to be a bit more patient in waiting for them to come up and generate their returns. mark: this goes in line with what you were saying just there. essentially, i'm showing off her. this is the stoxx 600 and what it is doing is breaking out of the bearish trend and channel, which did start about three months ago, crossing the key achnical resistance level of 50% retracement. it is a bit of a mouthful but as we know, european stocks have been very much unloved for the last 30-31 weeks with just one 30 weeksnflow versus
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of outflow. when you we see more of a convergence between u.s. stocks and u.s. stock performance? david: i think you are talking about the aggregate stock but what you need is present patient from the financials. of theore than 20% financial indices. so if they are under pressure, it will be tough for the aggregate market to rally. but what i would say is that europe emerging markets, there are great places for active management. there are a lot of companies that are doing really interesting and good things. and so we think a more nimble approach makes more sense because again, you will not get the aggregate to rally unless financials are participating so cautiously optimistic is what i would say. julie: one more question. i have my own chart here on the bloomberg, which looks at the s&p and poses of them have been higher.
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and this white line in particular has really outperformed since the election. justified?k that is will we see more outperformance going into 2017? feeling is that it has to do with a stronger dollar and growth in the u.s.. you naturally would want to focus on companies that are domestic and inward looking. and those are the small caps. so i think the run could continue. i do think we are due for a pause. in quite a move, and it has been quite a move since the election. so i wouldn't dismiss small caps but i would temper return expectations going forward. julie: david leibovitz, thank you for coming in. mark: coming up, u.s. lawmakers get to weigh in on the proposed $85.4 billion takeover of time warner.
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says the deal may need more analysis. adding that at&t and time warner could favor its own products.
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london and new york, i am mark barton. julie: this is "bloomberg markets." talking about randall stephenson and jeff puke is testifying before lawmakers about the proposed takeover of time warner. stephenson says that "together, they will disrupt the entrenched model. giving consumers more options
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and accelerating the employment and deployment of 5g broadband. you just saw a senator on that committee speaking. for more at what is at stake, let's bring in paul sweeney. what is your view here? is this deal good or bad for competition? what does this really mean? think most feel that this will get approved. it looks a lot like the one with universal in which a distributor geta content owner together, different than comcast buster posey acquisition of time warner cable which got blocked because it was more of a horizontal deal. the expectation is that the deal will be approved and it is just another step in what we are seeing in the convergence of
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media, telecommunications, technology. and we are seeing a big wave as we have seen over the last few years of it getting even bigger as the whole communication sector continues to consolidate. to think the view is that it will get approved, ultimately, who decides in these types of situations? paul: the department of justice. i don't think the fcc will have much of a role here. ofy take action in terms this. much like what they did before, this will ensure that it is eager and more vertically integrated. it will still be a platform where other content players can get carriers. they want to make sure that whether it is internet access or cable access, in whatever platform that may develop, that everybody will have a chance to play on the bigger at&t network. much like they did with comcast.
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deal so the version of the might be straightforward but what kind of concessions might have to be made? the concept of open access. i think what regulators want to make sure is that if new content comes along, a new mobile lap or website or source of content comes into the marketplace, netflix -- we have seen that will that new source of programming get access to the distribution on the at&t network? that is absolutely what regulators around the world are pushing for and are trying to put in place provisions to ensure that it occurs. mark: donald trump during the campaign said that he would block this deal if he became president and he will be president. what are we going to learn about the president-elect intentions towards this deal and m&a in general? would block the
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deal and said he didn't like the deal but i think what will happen is that he will come back ad look at it with dispassionate view. so the expectation is that the department of justice, under the trump administration, will generally be deregulatory as most administrations tend to be, but this deal will get a fair look on the merit of the deal. and given again that it is more of a vertical integration, most investors think this deal will be approved under the trump administration. julie: paul sweeney, thank you for your perspective on this. let's listen in to the hearing. chuck grassley from iowa is speaking. chuck grassley: affordable prices make for a happy consumer. at&t and time warner say this vertical merger will, in their words, benefit consumers.
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now, critics of the merger say that this deal will have an impact on innovations. there is a worry that it will block better access to time warner content. there is concern that a combined company will give preferable zeroel placement and rating pricing to time warner, time warner's premium entertainment programming, then to the disadvantage of other content producers, and particularly, small, independent producers. there is also concern with the
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ability over negotiating a better licensing agreement or raising the price of this to the detriment of other distributors. there is concern about the merged company's ability to avoid tactics which would dictate rates and terms to other networks. there is concern that this acquisition will concentrate too conglomerateto one , resulting in higher prices and fewer options for the consumer. and there is also concern about the merger's implication for a free and diverse media. this is something that i because onperienced the farm, i watch channel printer 49 on directv. i found out it wasn't there anymore and i asked why and i found out what was going on is an on fair contract negotiation. seriouse are all
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concerns which should be scrutinized carefully by antitrust regulators tasked with reviewing this transaction. some warn we should be careful about how the at&t and time warner deal should be examined because of the dynamic nature of the industry and complexity of fast-pacedlace and innovation and consumer wants and demands. they question whether the metrics are suited to tackle this transaction and urge caution on determining the competitive effects of mergers between different complex platforms. secondly, they said just that they may need to redefine market power and reassess how to analyze this in a fast shifting industry with multi-sited platforms. with tech giants like google, facebook, amazon and others
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changing the way consumers access content, it is legitimate , as one scholar recently said, "which look straightforwardly anti-competitive in the old industrial merger models may not be so simple in the merger of modern media platforms." the deal warrants close scrutiny because it raises all of these complexes and concerns. we want to be sure that the proposed merger doesn't allow an unfair advantage over competitors or facilitate anti-competitive practices with anti-competitive effects. yet, we also need to be thoughtful, forward-looking towards a market that takes into account the complexities of modern, interconnected media content and telecom platforms and relationships.
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julie: we were listening to the hearing before the judiciary subcommittee on the at&t-time billioneal, the 85 dollar deal. that was senator chuck grassley. are raisingrs questions about competition in the industry in the wake of the deal. you can continue to watch this on live go and we will bring you headlines that come out. mark: still ahead, thomas ack joins us with donald trump's latest cabinet picks. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: i am mark barton along with julie hyman. we are watching oil today trading at $51 a barrel.
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the speculation of production boost from shale production output will counter the first cut from opec. we are just about to get --ustry data from the u.s. what are we expecting? julie: expecting a drawdown and that is what is happening. a drop of 2.4 million barrels in the weekly inventory barrel. is nearly double. gasoline inventories climbing 3.4 million barrels. desolate inventory barrels climbing. so that could potentially counterbalance some of the effects of that drop that we are seeing overall in inventories. we will keep watching the price of oil but at the moment, we are seeing this close to the low of the session. oil prices are down for the second straight day. i don't know if we have a look at what oil is doing in the wake of this.
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50.36. or so.n the barrel so we are watching that closely. so in terms of other breaking news that we are getting, cbs reporting that donald trump has -- the third general selected by donald trump for a high-level post. in the meanwhile, he may be softening the stance on china. as evidenced as his pick of terry branstad, picked to ambassador of china. joining us now with more is david westin. david: more important, we are joined by thomas barrack. hisreal claim to frame, friendship with donald trump. let's start with the china question and terry branstad. what should we weave into the ambassador to
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beijing? thomas: you read into it as a considered and thoughtful and calculated choice. longest branstad is the standing governor in u.s. history, i think, almost a 30 year relationship with china. to the key with china is curate politics and business in , coltssubtle, long-term really sensitive way. so i think the signal of taking somebody who already understands the hardships, who has a reputational capital with in a setting that the trump administration has already sent sound waves to say, by the way, the discussions that we are going to have need to be really bilateral. and we want a great relationship with china but we need it opened both ways.
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and this is how we will have a stronger set of discussions. i think china is encouraged and excited about having the governor as a representative. and having an experienced hand on the home is a signal that this president elect is doing -- and you also see that with the general that he is putting in place. david: and terry branstad knows china well. and he also knows -- personally well and has had a relationship with him. least, it does come to a state that has a substantial relationship, a trading relationship with china. so how much of that is a bridge building? thomas: both. bridge building and a hammer. chinese are seductive. they think in 100 year terms. so the confucian dialogue, it is romantic.
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at they can out wait you for century. so having someone who has already been to that rodeo, who understands the program and you has the stature and procedure of the office, i think it is a brilliant move. david: it is premature to ask exactly what will happen that so far, do you think he is delivering on things he said he would? china ahe would declare currency manipulator. would you expect, given what you know of him, that it would actually happen? thomas: we have to put skin on the bone. china has a currency manipulator, let's define what that is. currency manipulation, u.s. bonds or securities, they can as and float the value of their own currency and they can evan flow the bouncy of their own currency. so on one hand, we have trade regulations -- which, are thousands of patients and mostly
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the currencyable, fluctuations can be more impactful. in actuality today, the currency of inflation is gone the other way. they have pulled back the essential funding and they have taken half a billion out of that marketplace to distribute it to world capital. but having an understanding of the accelerated and the break and what is happening, i think that discussion is also critical. central bank interventions here also have to be balanced. and all he is saying is what he is saying in all of these instances, and america is not used to having a president to is curating that and it isn't criticism but we have a businessman who when he has a problem, he addresses it. so it is seen as him picking on somebody or admiring somebody he shouldn't -- the transaction of declaring we have $50 billion of
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new investment and new jobs, this is a man who will take the agenda and get things done. with aher than starting bureaucracy, a slow-moving train het doesn't go anywhere, says the same thing. america has lost proceed because we do not act. we do not ask for allies and we do not act. so i think it is getting used to theman and getting used to opportunity. and remember he has president-elect. he doesn't yet have any power. there are 19 federal agencies putting forward. david: we have some republicans in the house and are making noise about tariffs. saying that what can he do to
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cut through congress? he is mending wounds and bridging the divide. so in close to rather than exquisite. see,me of what you will with china, seeming to be drawing lines, on the other hand, he is reaching out to every constituent who is there and saying, we are together. we will makele, america great again. so what you don't see is the reach to the other side. finding the low hanging fruit together. let's find out what is important and unimportant. i have used this example with you before where in his mind, you are at 50,000 feet and losing altitude, and so the oxygen drops down and first, put it on yourself. don't put it on your neighbor first. , which will refocus
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be good for the globe. the markets will see what is good for them. deregulation. a tax policy which encourages entrepreneurism. which isitary policy certain for our allies. even more meaningful. david: those are all policies. you mentioned softbank. and is this something we should expect for the president-elect as he becomes president, going company by company to try to change behaviors? i think you'll see him interact opportunity by opportunity and not company by company. is boeing at fault for an air force? absolutely not. but this is a time and materials airplanes which has
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been dictated by somebody. but who is in charge? so what you see is accountability. rather thanty political rhetoric. this is a man who says, i will get things done. thek you will protect american people. and he is protecting the american people and he says he will do a better job on the globe. and by responding to things that are front of him, i will do it responsibly. david: what does that tell us about the possible infrastructure program? because that means a lot more money will be coming out so what does that mean for what he needs thinks needs to be delivered? president reagan impose tariffs. when hundred percent tariffs for two years. he protected harley davidson. you are too young to remember. but a 45% tariff. and on fiscal spending, everyone
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is scared to death of debt but the power that we have in the it is anhat unbelievably competitive advantage. the trillions of dollars in debt which everybody freaks out, it we are still the best performing gdp in the world so fiscal stimulus make sense. so in public and private partnership in which the government infuses capital, sidelined with private capital, which leverages the capital to bridges and highways and tolls, the same as it has, we have heard eu's monetary policy, and the federal reserve is almost and monetary policy will continue to be important. but the only stimulus going forward will be fiscal. so the fiscal stimulus side-by-side with the monetary stimulus can have an unbelievable impact. is ready tod
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invest. so investment tax credits. jobs. capital tie to infrastructure development. it is a really sensible plan. david: so final question. date and difficult and somewhat say thankless job of running the election -- of running the inauguration. after that, if donald trump said ok, you can have any job you want, what would you pick? thomas: freedom. [laughter] thomas: he has the most important people in the world taking the best jobs. -- stephen minutia and -- and what he found was an incredible set of talent. i can plan a party. i am where i should be. [laughter] david: thank you so much. that was thomas barrack. thank you so much. mark: fantastic interview there.
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what iso bring you happening here in london. we are looking at live pictures thehe u.k. supreme court on article 50 hearing. it is day three of the argument. the supreme court justices have been questioning some of the legal theories behind the challenge to the u.k. brexit plan, saying it is possible that they gave the final sale to the eu by agreeing to hold the referendum. and i want to dry your attention to lawyers on the other side who are calling for a full vote before they give formal notice. so we will continue to bring you headlines and we can follow this on live go. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." mark: this is the global business report. india's central bank kept interest rates unchanged ahead of the next year decision. we will hear from the central bank governor. julie: iran is getting ready to sign the first year of easing decisions this year. mark: and a closer look at taiwan following donald trump's conversation with the countries leader. we will tell you why the united nations doesn't recognize it as a country. julie: a surprise in india. the central bank unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged before a possible increase in u.s. borrowing costs. they are beginning to see the impact of the government of thens to ban 86% currency in circulation. outcomes in september and october, as well
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as the latest projections vindicates this stance. it may be recorded that in ahead ofthe trajectory inflation, towards 5%, by march 2017, with risks to the upside. i ran is about to sign the deal sinceean oil sanctions were eased earlier this year. an official says royal dutch gased to develop oil and fields. last month, they signed a separate $4.8 billion agreement to develop an iranian gas project. the u.s.olidation in airline industry. the justice department has approved alaska and's acquisition of a virgin america. -- lucrative cross country market.
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reduce the agreed to signs of marketing agreements with american airlines. it still requires court approval. -- the bestplace place in the u.s. to work is bain and company. that is the third time they have topped the best places to work list. benefits and mentorship. others are facebook, the boston consulting group, google, alphabet and worldwide technology. julie: time now for the bloomberg quick take where we provide context on issues of interest. right?is a country, sort of. it has a constitution, an elected government and the united nations does not recognize it. the reason is because china considers the island one of its provinces. here is the situations. the leader of the independent progressive party says they will
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seek peaceful ties with china while resisting the idea that they are part of a single nation. pressure.set up the understanding that both sides belong to one china. after the election, china lodged a complaint after donald trump politicalr decades of protocol by directly speaking to taiwan on the phone. victory by the communists in the chinese civil war forced the nationalist government to flee the mainland to taiwan. tensions erected in the chinese military. at 1950's and 1990's. only a handful of nations recognize taiwan. even the u.s., which is bound by law to protect taiwanese democracy, does not have an official position. apple's iphone's are made by taiwanese companies.
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here is the argument. china aims missiles at taiwan and no priest treaty has been signed in decades. yet many china watchers say there is too much at stake for military action. others interpret the actions in asia as evidence of a more aggressive regional stance. -- keep the peace while building withnational ties with being less dependent on the mainland. that is your global business report. had to for more stories. still ahead, opec's first deal to cut production in eight years depends on participation from non-opec members. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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julie: this is "bloomberg
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markets." mark: live from london and new york. as the firststic production cut in opec will rebalance the market but only if non-opec members like russia production. -- spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> we have started the level of production cuts needed for the market recovery. and i think it will be enough to achieve the market balance. 1.8 --et more of the marco opec is planning to cut production. non-opec will need to cut 600,000 barrels. joining us now is our bloomberg energy reporter. thet all comes down to non-opec members raining in production. in order for this plan to work.
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what is your viewpoint? >> that's right. nothing has been agreed yet among the non-opec producers. theia has committed for first time ever to cut production. and russia will account for half of the non-opec cuts needed. cuts thather non-opec has agreed it is i'm on. still have more to be accounted for. we will have natural declines in some countries like mexico and toombia but we still need see how we need to get there with the other countries. those negotiations are still to come. mark: does the decline in the oil price this week tell us that investors are beginning to get nervous after last week's rally about the actual implementation of this deal? sam: i think there is a bit of nerves around there. let's not forget we are
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significantly up on where we were before the deal. overall, investors think this deal is a positive thing and it will be infected -- it will be effective. but now we need to see if non-opec members join in and if shale production will come back in a big way. julie: there is also the question of what exactly this deal with non-opec members would entail. there has been some reported on the bloomberg that perhaps it would just be natural decreases in production? rather than production cuts? doesn't that decrease the effectiveness of such an agreement? sam: it does mean that some of the cuts that are going to be made will have already been priced in by the market. so yes, from a market perspective, the cuts won't have as dramatic of an effect as they would have done. theit does mean that barrels will be coming off the market, one way or the other.
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so assuming this comes together and it sticks, we will see a rebalancing of the market. a move towards balanced supply and production from the overproduction that we have currently. opec meeting,the it seemed as though it was a head to head between saudi arabia and iran. arehe non-opec nations, who the key players that will have to come to the table? who are those most resistant? well, the only countries who have agreed are russia and oman. there are some countries that we know won't. norway has no interest in joining this. the u.s., of course, regarded as doing its own thing. so really, we have to see who turns up at the meeting and who is willing to cut and what level of production. mark: that was sam wilkin in
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dubai. a meeting will be held on saturday to discuss the cut. coming up, the european close. credit suisse giving back after the chief executive pledges $1 billion more in cost cuts, plus, more on banks as regulators wrap up a five-year investigation into rigging the benchmark. have a look at the stocks. 34 minutes away from the end of the wednesday session. stocks up for the third consecutive day. the best winning run since november 9. stoxx 600 highest level since september 22. this is bloomberg. ♪ a
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>> it is 11:00 a.m. in new york, midnight in hong kong. 30 minutes left in the trading day. i am mark barton. >> i am julie hyman. this is the european close.
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mark: we are going to take you from washington to rome and give you a couple of stories out of switzerland in the u.k.. here is what you are watching today. european thanks -- bankshares get a boost today. we will cover that plus a big settlement in the benchmark rigging scandal. julie: the italian prime minister tells twitter followers he will resign after sunday's referendum defeat. we will get his speech to the leadership of the democratic party. ceos of at&t and time warner are on capitol hill depending -- defending their proposed transaction over concerns the deal could hur


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