tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 9, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST
♪ global reflation continues. rise and global equities hit a three-month high. cutsis more, mario draghi bond buying, but warrants that this is not tapering. gains above the one dollars a barrel as opec talks with producers. rallies andan yuan the roads on the president's impeachment. ulists whous -- pop
claim aanother one. ♪ guy: you are welcome. it is "daybreak." it is our flagship morning show from london. regain there is -- breaking news, yesterday trillions across the month from equity and bond. today, the guy has raised. manus: it raises its overall loss for 2016. but this great, global reflation trade, is it just as donald trump took the mark, or what is driving at? with fallinga prices and the question for markets is, we have had the third straight month of gains and advances in the ppi.
you are looking at an 11th month high for the ppi. export -- is it going to the relation to the rest of the world? mining is up. it was nearly a percent last month. could they be in hike mode? that is what some people are saying. we will transfer this. stocks are trading and momentum is building. take a look at the top of the screen. up by more than .5%. another record. and call options on the s&p 500 are hitting a record. 9000 contracts, that is what they have their hands on. this has only happened on 10 separate occasions. every time after 2005, you saw it 3%. it has gained 6% in the next year. you are looking at crude. ine in vienna -- live
vienna, we will see. and this since opec agreed on a momentous that last week. and we're looking at the impeachment of the ruler in south korea. lawmakers could vote in favor of park.hment of president and is still the korean yuan looking for its biggest gain since september. and the fifth week of losses for this commodity. stocks are rallying and gold is dying. etf cut for 20 days in a row. sorry, good morning. -- sophie, good morning. sophie: yesterday, quantitative easing could boil down to three words, less is more. denied aghi --
ascalled taper in place even they raised 60 billion euros to 80 billion. >> it is a pragmatic and flexible way to call -- may materialize. second, there is no question about t3. discussed.s not been ophie: thes president trump says -- present you like to will have to play by the rules. for they -- his nominee ambassador for china. there has been a clear warning issued about the bottom line on taiwan, with the headline leading relations needed more than a friendly messenger.
gold and a salon. it should be a bit week of losses. eroding annual gains. that has set high expectations to boost the dollar and deliver money out of the haven. and it john glenn the first american to orbit the earth has died at the age of 95. the historic space mission made him a hero and then he followed with a career in the senate. he was a fighter pilot in two set and as a test pilot, he a continental speed record. you can find more stories on the bloomberg. manus: thank you. we will get straight out to -- fornici has undone losses 2016. this momentum is building. and the yen is under pressure.
happy friday. julia: happy friday. yes, a very good day for japanese equities. we saw them at a six year -- six day high. and looking at 1.2% on the close. as we said, it is about the dollar strength. there has been a lot of momentum coming through in the japanese equities over the couple of weeks. shanghai looking good. we had inflation at better than expected. .t is up seven/10 and we have casino players coming under pressure. this is at a report that the atm withdrawals will be capped starting from tomorrow from a au. -- mac a strong dollar meaning emerging market economies coming under pressure. it is down around a third of 1%.
also weakness in malaysia. and energy stocks looking good. you have the westerly market australianigher -- market finishing higher. and taking a look at currencies in the -- that has sent the offshore down by about a 10th of a 1%. and of course as you say, the yen is under pressure today. guy: juliet, thank you. we will see you later for more market action. china and its inflation gate. it rose to the highest level since 2011. heavy lifting. and global inflation, here is our bloomberg intelligence man. tom, i got very excited, the fastest pace since 2011. and then i looked, it is copper and coal and they tend to be volatile. >> i think you hit the nail on
the head. think about why this is happening. a lot of it is the commodity story, it china importing iron or and other areas. 7% in is down to close to the last year. that adds to import prices for china. and those combined with additional pressure from domestic demand, that is what is pushing the producer prices up again. guy: what does it mean for the economy? manus: we get this data yesterday, so what is the consensus view in terms of momentum for china ? tom: i think the latest information day is another strong data for china paid we had strong export numbers from yesterday. and we had the pmi's, strong for november. indicate that their economy is
going into the beginning of 2017 with a little bit of momentum. and with serious risks looming. the donald trump terrace -- tariff could kill the rally before it begins. the government is imposing controls when they start to bite, we will see the construction come down. that will take the heat out of commodity demand to push back down again. talk about --, what is the latest? have you been gambling? tom: only with my health. the story there is that there is a rumor in the hong kong press that the government is going to put a cap on atm withdrawals in the offshore gambling center. an immediate negative impact on the casino stocks.
over the course of the day, we have had analysts questioning the reports. no official confirmation, so those stocks have regained ground. what this story underlines is the continued market -- on the issue of market controls and the china stuffing money -- a stopping money escaping from the economy and the application it has always from the casinos to jewelers to sydney real estate. secondly, the vulnerability of the whole casino story, to the beijing policy story. manus: tom, you are right. the high rollers will be word. thank you. host for the next hour, welcome. trade in the headlines and there we go. we have pbi marching higher, do you buy into it?
or are you cautious about it? a lot of the numbers being driven by commodities. >> you say that the china year on your commodity index, or the is verye correlation close. there are factors that are starting to weigh in. the pboc as tom said, the outlook for china is ok, but there is a lot of factors we will need to really take notice of. particularly donald trump, so therefore a neutral stance is exactly what everybody should be looking for. manus: it is strange you mentioned donald trump in regard to china. trumpy written -- donald says that china will play by the rules, this is after he announced you have the iowa terry on ourith
side, i know we will succeed. with has been so soft people who did not get it. we will have mutual respect and we will benefit from terry's position to lead the way. so things have shifted in terms of china. what does it this relationship need to look like to invoke optimism from the trading community? >> i think we need to see temperance of the language in the short term. he comes in and his first day in label, that he will still china as a currency miller be later -- manipulator on his first day. he does not need congressional approval for that. iff onere will be a tar china, so if he starts to bring that back, it will certainly engender more positive feeling within the relationship. secretary, the treasury
secretary who ever it may be, the looked toward that needs to be more about international trade as opposed to american protections. we do not see it at the moment. manus: now that you mentioned it, day one he could go for that, but with the reserve -- they are -- look, the smallest drop in five years. this is the offshore you want. it has dropped. it is a perennial question, but given the data, do you think the chinese are going to be happy with the slow moving car crash on the yuan, or have they had enough in the move? happy tomore than let it weaken. it has been in just a month for china. obviously donald trump taking over on january 20 and chinese
new year is the first week of the viewer, -- first week of february, so we will see the consumption going over that time. i would not be surprised if it continues to push china above seven. manus: looking at the variety of aspects, all going back to the federal reserve in emerging markets. is 2017 another year of easing? be believing it is over? laid it down as the end of next year. ratesd with interest rising, probably neutral. is that neutral or frightening? the convergence is not happening anytime soon. manus: ok. germany, hold some of those thoughts. if you are just tuning in, it is 6:14 a.m. in london, 7:14 a.m.
in paris and it is u.k. trade day. , we will looker junckerynote speech from maastricht. closes, ithe market is friday, so it is ratings day for the u.k. don't call it a taper. the purchases will decline from april of next year, but mario draghi does not want to use the magic word. more on that story is next. and a big weekend in the end up. will -- vienna. will russia cut oil production? we are on the ground for another big opec weekend.
business flash. good morning. >> thank you. nintendo says it is the highest level in four months after looking at their mario games, giving fans a chance to try it out this week. they are still 8% below amid a flurry as a related to pokemon go. and casino stocks dropping in hong kong and the u.s. of the reports that china is imposing a tax on atm -- cap on atm withdrawals. the cap on the cards used by about half of mainland gamblers will take effect tomorrow. the move is seen as a crackdown on a how cash is moved into the gambling enclave. is seeking as
divorce after 31 years of marriage. the familyworth -- go foundation has given away almost $800 million. that is the business flash. manus: thank you. the ecb's president has announced an extension of the quantitative easing through the end of 2017. though at a slower pace. mario draghi says the program will be reduced to a speed of 60 billion euros, going from 80 billion which was currently set up. add tore is an option to the stimulus, which may not be enough for the ecb. he added, this is not tapering. securities inf the program with the yield to maturity below the interest rate on the ecb's facility will be
permitted to the extent necessary. the outlook for real gdp growth is changed. the rates surrounding the euro area growth remain tilted to the downside. in december, 2016, the euro system staff projections for the euro area, which foresee annual 2016.ion at 0.2% in 1.3% in 2017. 1.5% in 2018. in 2019. manus: it is a dirty word, taper. is that really what is going on? class this a master communications?
>> it was not a taper, certainly. you saw the up and down, regardless of the temperature. offar as the expectations master class, he told the market what they wanted to hear. you can see from the euro exactly what they wanted. manus: talk about the euro-dollar, because it spiked yesterday. the red headline coming in the cross the bloomberg, tapering down from 80-60. and now we are going down. on the conditions, are they set for parity? bestthink they are the they have been. we talk about parity in times of economic distress within the eurozone, 2017 is shaping up to be a particularly distressing time for the eurozone. talking about the strong dollar story as well and people talking
at 1.06 at it was the moment. , that used to be the normal. certainly in the depths of the global financial crisis is quite similar moves on the back of -- it is not france, it is the netherlands and the dutch elections. manus: you are not worried about france? >> not all. manus: you think we will get over excited all over france? up, think it will get bit but the way that the psycho ands and -- psycho works how it did in 2002, the hedge builders in the netherlands where it is a more classic electoral system, is in the lead. he will not win a majority, but he will certainly win the most amount of seats. that is the worrying thing. manus: somebody will go to
bloomberg.com and when the results out they will actually -- >> i know. one i 42-27 by this is picked earlier. this is the german curve. the steepest in a year. you see, the market is really trying to get ahead of mario draghi, or is this part of a bigger global trade? you think it continues for europe? >> i think it continues over the course of the rest of the year. we are looking at the highest level, the most steepening. in eight years. will it continue? obviously not. , yes.of the global trade when we talk about the central bank, that is when we talk about the curves, regardless of where you are. it has finally got to the
eurozone. manus: it is fascinating. we were crying into her cups, and banks were getting battered, there was not a return insight. -- in sight. you could not get a yield. is back inl market france. what is bad about normalization? >> normalization is probably a good thing. compared to what we have had over the past couple of years. the rates have changed and that is what we need to be concerned about and these moves will probably cause more volatility over the course of 2017. mario draghi does not trust it, you can tell from the statements. he is looking at the short end of things. manus: i like that. stay with me. we have much more to get to. the parliamentary session to
♪ it is 6:30 a.m. in london, 2:30 p.m. in hong kong. what a glorious day to end the week. there is a new edition of "daybreak." it is on your terminal and bloomberg. there you go. is theng inflation, that hope. do you believe in copper prices? do you believe the rally in iron ore? in the commodity rally? china is surging, ripping do the
global supply chain. fromrice index up november. the highest number since 2011. we are in vienna, chasing ministers. and non-opec members. they have a meeting with the nonmembers bid it will begin tomorrow officially, but a lot of chasing done in the meantime. looking at plans to cut production. russia is ready. will they comply with the rules? we will take a look at how they will limit production to 3.5 million barrels a day. and finally, daybreak focusing on the return to the u.s. market. back in the usa, bruce springsteen you to your heart out, it is agreed they will buy a mistake -- a stake in spirits.
the maker of bourbon and gin. the world's second-largest spirit maker did not disclose terms. back in the usa, a very good day. getting into the markets. >> good morning. stocks rising in asia, heading for the best week since september. this is after the s&p 500 and dow hit records in the u.s. sincerst yearly gain 2013. japanese equities poised for their longest winning streak in a year. looking at what the different sectors are doing, health care is in the lead. followed by financials. perhaps some of the higher yields that we are seeing from the market. energy is up with oil extending gains above $51 a barrel before
opec meets with producers from outside of the group. 10 of a percent. and the worst performer against the dollar, the south korean yuan is down, because they are putting today on whether to impeach the president. the euro is pretty much unchanged. it did have a slump at the end of the day yesterday. it is a racing the surge. dovish,ot hawkish or whatever you do, do not talk about taper. and a lot of this is about the 10 year treasury yields moving higher and climbing toward an 18 month hike bubbling up the dollar. and the yen set up for decline against the dollar. the u.s. japan with their gap. and finally fed of the opec meeting, the oil volatility
hitting its highest since march 1. look at how much it has come down, now at its lowest since october. manus: thank you. with the very latest on the market roundup at 6:33 a.m. cut onng the historic oil production, another meeting between opec and non-opec members. we are outside the headquarters. and mary, great to see you. what do we expect? it was attending and who are you chasing? >> good morning. if last week was about finding this historic deal and getting it done, tomorrow's meeting is about getting the rest of the gang on board. have been an14 invited, but only five have confirmed they are attending. as you know, if you have covered
these meetings, russia is the ringleader of the non-opec group. they are the ones able to push opec of the edge to get the deal done. last week, they were pledging 300,000 barrels a day, a cut of that much. pressure remains numeral will make up the remaining to get to the 600,000 that was part of the deal. beside pressure, only one other has pledged to cut. and how will it materialize? how will they actually cut? the 300,000, after it could come from natural declines, which we know is not a real curve on output. sophie: it is not. manus: when you look at the board you have up there, it is fascinating to see who will bring it. is it going to be outside of the saying, you need to get on board.
mexico will get on board. my question is, the followthrough, is it that what we want to hear at the end of the meeting? will i be talking to you and you will say, everybody got on board and it looks like it was a united front? marie: it completely depends what the talks come down to. i think because russia is leading the charge with 300000 and now is able to get the deal done, i think others will follow. only arman has said they are willing to cut. willing -- getting to the 600,000 could be a struggle. be with curve will not the natural decline. other previous russell -- rivals, they agreed to cut 500,000 barrels a day, in
2001. if you take a look at this chart, you can see the following year the only ones continuing to cut was norway and mexico and you see russia ramp up production. history tells us about what these countries say and do is sometimes a different story and that is what the market will pay attention to. manus: absolutely. we will talk about this, by the way, have a great 24 hours. good luck with the cheesy. mind the back door. and shake hands with novak. we will be looking at compliance. ministershasing oil in vienna. it is all big -- baked into the cake. the agreement, getting compliance, what they say and what they do as this chart says, it is very different. jeremy: it is.
history dictates that a production cut is not a production cut until it actually starts to come across a little slower. and you said baked into the cake, $55 a barrel right now. looking at the commodities on the back of them. looking extended. oilto oil deals -- two deals in the course of two weeks is almost unbelievable. manus: the ruble has had the best run in dollar terms. in the best sense of live tv, i am on my own, so i will do the drive on the telly. we will talk about the oil currencies. here is what we prepared. i have the ruble, and i have
malaysian currency. they are having their best year with the ruble. at over here on the correlation. and they are still high. if oil is getting going at $52, is there more momentum on these three currencies? jeremy: maybe, but not as a result of the commodities moving higher. the russian ruble could move higher depending on the treaty relationship with donald trump. any form of coalescence around nafta could help the canadian dollar. and in the grand scheme of things, there are things that could help the commodity currencies, but oil is becoming less of a factor in the short term. manus: again, it is interesting how donald trump comes back into conversation. jeremy: every conversation. reproach --would a
with russia look like a because with interest.ng with is an investigation the sanctions. i hear one thing from trump and another in reality. with vladimir putin and donald trump, how would it look in 2017? jeremy: closer investment ties. if this happens in march of next year, it could go through by almost, almost immediately. in the wider view of things committee fbi from the u.s. shifting away from the asian pacific, which obama was hostile on the back into places like russia. it is a slow burning thing. these cases come a but it will happen over the course of 2017.
manus: thank you very much. a little bit more to get through. have president park in south korea, the voting continuing. we are in the south korean capital, next. and exporting inflation. looking at china's prices at the highest level since 2011. and mario draghi says it is not a taper, despite plans to roll back. we continue this discussion later in the show. this is bloomberg. ♪
have a record high in the market. contracts.ve 900,000 they could beat on the other side and terms of cash flow. closing somewhere in new york. going to the business flash. good morning. agreed to-- has purchase the biggest miner of south africa gold paying for still water. and the only u.s. platinum group metals group and the highest player deposits. nintendo says they have hit their highest level in four months after starting to market their super mario brothers smartphone game. including giving fans a chance to try it out ahead of its release.
however, the shares are still below july after a speculative flurry that followed the hit pokemon go game. and dropping in hong kong, u.s. a usand the stocks after it was announced that there would be caps on atms. this cap will take effect tomorrow. it is seen as a crackdown on cash moving into the gambling enclave. that is your business flash. manus: have a great weekend. i hope there is a martini on ice for you. expecteddent park is -- lawmakers voting to a speech -- impeach her. she is accused of violating her duties and it says that she will accept parliament's decision.
good to see you. details so far, we understand voting has started. give us the latest. the voting has started and in the 300 members part of the national assembly, you can see the protesters be jaime, the members have started voting. the motion submitted yesterday accused the president of a variety of things, including violating duties and abuse of power. there has been a lot of police movement as you can see. crowds really swelling and of course the lease as well. -- police as well. this is the second time this has happened in korea, voting on whether to impeach a president. it is an extraordinary day for the country. thevotes are needed from
300 lawmakers, 171 members were supporting it when it was submitted, said that leaves 29 votes left. we could see quite soon if it passes. then the president would be suspended straightaway and the prime minister would take over in the interim. then the constitutional court will decide -- and effectively follow the will of the korean people. if they decide that is the case. they have 180 days and then presidential elections could be held. it could go as long as eight month. been inntry really has limbo for some time now, since the political scandal saw -- started unfolding and has engulfed the prime minister of the country. expect to know, we
see the protesting really escalate. has the impact been on the country? we see the physical manifestation in terms of protesters and there is obviously anger among the people, but it has been a year for korean inc. it has.: they have seen some of their the handsets -- smoking and catching fire for samsung. the country is beginning to struggle and some areas. and parts of their biggest businesses. and there are very angry people out here. 1% said earlier, we're working -- one person said earlier, we're working very hard. and many other people are
protesting, they say they want more jobs. and what we are seeing at the moment, people complaining and frustrated. ties between the government and big companies. korea has moved forward in many ways, leaps and bounds over the last decade or so, yet there is a close that between business, big business and the government and people are frustrated with this. there was a columnist that wrote recently saying, essentially it is a clash between a communist society moving forward and the government moving backwards. -- be safe one the ground. breaking news coming across the bloomberg. focusing back on italy. we understand from the reports today, that the president may
ask renzi to lead a new government by monday. this could be an interesting turn. losing last sunday night, he gave his regulation -- re like the, now it looks entire president could be asking him to lead a new government. that would be an interesting him to state -- staked his office on that below. that and set up a new government? if he did, what really would have changed? that is according to the latest press reports from republica. jeremy cook is with me. we were just listening and you said clearly that impeachment,
if it does not go through, would perhaps be more damaging. from the looks of the protest and the voting, they are only 29 votes short. jeremy: it will also go the constitutional course and it could easily be stricken down. it fails and the legislature says no or the constitutional court says no, you can invest -- expect to see confidence to slow as well. a political reaction in the country starting to pick up. i think we cannot put this in the same box as what is happening in the u.k. or the u.s. or could be happening in france and germany moving forward. it is more a case of trying to get rid of a leader that has not been a good leader. manus: this is a very important
point to make him a that we need to be very discerning, every time we see it country -- ca country go to the pulls, they need to discern the difference between what is populism. it did not lurch in austria to the right. is that the hallmark of smart positioning? jeremy: absolutely. currency markets can become so myopic about political risk that everything as soon as we start talking about elections, we could have elections in italy in 2017, so i think we need to be more -- about what it is about. south korea is not italy. i think there will be elections probably in april and probably pass without a hitch. have --nd that will
continue? jeremy: it has been on the basis that everybody is expecting this to pass. we have been looking for it to depreciate. korea hasr funding in not had a particularly good 2016. the issues around trade, shipping within the global economy is going to continue to weigh on south korean confidence. in the near term, the political situation is negative for the korean yuan. manus: there is an unusual phenomenon in this job, i know that we are working in a paradigm shift, but the premium differential between the u.s. and korea is at its widest sense 2004. 2004.ce if the momentum continues and
easy koreans shifting their money, this is a make position for the market -- this is a unique position for the market to be a. jeremy: it is. -- for them to move out of the currency, it is not a new phenomenon. 90's ast in the late welcome as that they have the institutional memory around the asian crisis. you know, this does not happen often. manus: a note for viewers, in the parliament in south korea, they have begun with the impeachment of. i should tell you that they need to get through 200 votes, 171 lawmakers have endorsed the motion on the floor. so the parliament, only 29 votes short of full impeachment.
there is a 40 page document in front of the parliament in regards to the impeachment. we will go straight back to south korea as soon as we get the results. and let's take a look at emerging markets. commodities, copper and lead, and zinc going higher on the s&p 500. do you believe in this rally? jeremy: for emerging markets, they want to believe in it. take a look at any emerging market out there, they all could benefit from the pickup in commodity prices. i think there is a lot to be said for continuing it in 2017. shouldppens in vienna help it over the weekend. manus: and let's see if the the 300,000. with come back soon and give us your
anchor: the great global reflation trade continues. china's factory gate prices rise to the highest since 2011. global equities hit a three month high. less is more. mario draghi cuts the bond buying but warns investors this is not tapering. oil extends its gains above $51 a barrel. opec talks with producers outside the club. manus: welcome.
daybreak europe, the flagship show. i am manus cranny. the great lobo hope is that china will continue to reflate with donald trump rhetorically. what you have got is the numbers coming out of china, with bull markets returning to italy. "momentum continue. the nikkei has undone all of its losses. just keep in mind, you have got the dax going through more of an opening rotation than the rest. we have london up, paris and will wait and see how frankfurt settles on the open. a slightly stronger open. let us have a look at the risk radar because the bowls are back s are back inl town. undoubtedly, it is this.
s&p futures up 0.5%. you are hitting another record. option traders are long called options. that is a record high. a new record high for the index. more than 900,000 contracts. that has happened only on 10 occasions since 2004. every time that has happened, up another 3%. of another 6% within a year. are we in the middle of another on the u.s. -- lag equity trade? opec and non-opec get-together. how are they going to come up with cuts for non-opec members? gold is down. this one, and i think. eyethis one, i have got my on choices week of losses, the lungs run of losses and investors are pulling money out.
that is the complexion of markets. let us get into the bond board. let us have a look at that because you have a little bit of a rise in terms of yield dropped in price. bonds are down. what is tapering? that is the debate in the next 30 minutes here it must get you bloomberg first word. mario draghi has sent a clear message to investors. tativeday's quanti easing could be more. have strenuously denied the so-called taper is in place even as monthly buying was cut to 60 billion euros from 80 billion euros. >> the governing council is out in a pragmatic and flexible way to cope with rates that may in this period of. second, there is no question
about tapering. tapering has not been discussed today. manus: u.s. president-elect donald trump has found that china will soon have to go play by the rules. the comments came as an election victory rally where tron was introduced -- trump was introducing the iowa governor. he was nominated ambassador to beijing. hesitation to the clearest warning that the bottom line on taiwan with a headline reading that "relations between the two countries will need more than a friendly messenger." gold is heading for its worst slump in more than a year. run sincee longest november 2015. eroding an annual gain. that is as the fed hikes expectations. u.s. equities are at record levels.
that is lingering money out of the haven. uring money out of the haven. in the u k, they have held -- the vote was forced after one of theresa may's mp's resigns over handling of brexit. john glenn, the first american to orbit the earth has died at the age of 95. the historic space mission made him a hero. that'sels him to a long propelled him to a long career in the u.s. senate. he was a fighter pilot in two wars and as a test pilot, he said the transcontinental speed record. local news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than hundred 20 countries and you can get more on those stories and go to top go. the news coming in across your bloomberg terminal right now. south korean parliament has
announced the impeachment results. coming very soon. my apologies. we are waiting for that decision to come through on the impeachment. 200 votes are needed in the parliament. 29 will short. today's before receiving. let us get to juliette saly, standing by in hong kong. nikkei., >> we have seen at fort stocks boost the nikkei up 1.2% on the close. topix whichhe topic reached that milestone. it has been a positive session somes asia apart from weaknesses coming through in these emerging markets and in hong kong. juliette: we have been talking
about this story on about the fact -- all morning that china is likely to clamp down. you have seen weakness coming through from the players hang on the hang seng index. jenna had a good index. the shamshanghai up. overall, a pretty good week for asian equities. in fact, they are on track for their best weekly gains and september. -- gain since september. won,so much as the korean also afflicted by this president impeachment vote. two-weekming off high. down -- the won down. coming off a two week low.
high . joe: factory gate inflation rose. helping sustain the prices around the world. consumer prices picked up on raising food costs. bloomberg china correspondent tom mackenzie has the details. these producer prices adding to evidence of a dear shift in china's manufacturing sector following strong exports and pmi numbers. producer inflation jumped 3.2% year on year -- 3.3% year on year. it shifted away from a deflationary cycle. high commodity prices increased ppind and said into the number. they will see a greater ability to pay down debts, but consumers will take a hit with shrinking saving power, falling savings. that may hamper china's drive to
develop the consumer economy. it let us predict china's inflation will rise to between 4% and 6% next year, pushing up global prices. expectations of pboc will shift into a tightening phase. bloomberg, beijing. manus: breaking down the details for us. breaking down the sentiment for markets. what does it mean? the great reflation story. it is a good story, isn't it, but you have got to believe that copper, aluminum, zinc, you have to believe this growth. >> i think that growth is definitely improving. if you look around the world, th the pmi is anywhere you care to look. you have got consumer confidence picking up really quite strongly and housing stocks rising strongly, so a lot of signals actually that around the world, global growth is improving
significantly. michael: that is meaningful because i think it means the probability of there being a recession next year has significantly reduced and it justifies some of the rally you are seeing in equity markets. manus: if you look at that, i'm going to pull up the european benchmarks for you because we are back in bull territory. the ecb last week, this is a and paris market, back into territory. this j.p. morgan asset management believe that this parity and evaluation -- do you buy the bull market in europe? michael: european equities could remain relatively well supported. yield are going higher and that is benefiting the banks there. on a relative call, we favor the u.s.. we think yields will likely rise further in the u.s. and played into more support for some of those sectors like financials in the u.s. and clearly, there are political risks in europe. -- in the short-term view manus: i'm going to interrupt you for just one second.
south korea parliament has passed a motion to impeach park president ofhe south korea. so the parliament has passed this motion. we have been waiting. we have been waiting for quite some time in terms of the breakdown. we are just waiting to see that. this will go into the constitutional court now. the impeachment is official of park geun-hye. she was accused of course in a 40 page document of bribery, abuse of power, violating the constitutional duties, and at the heart of the issue, the old,ations that are very lifetime friend, peddled influence through their relationship. park said she was willing to resign in april.
of course, the vote came in, 234 in favor of impeachment. that was as opposed to 56 mean, this is the fourth largest economy in asia, and my guest in the 6:00 a.m. show said, very clearly, if they did not vote for impeachment, it could be more harm than good. let us send our attention back to mike bell. morewe are at another political hubris, but this time, is this populism? michael: it is just one more country around the world where we have to worry about the political situation. in look around the world now and politics is front and center in investors minds, particularly in europe, that clearly in asia and obviously the u.s. as well. it makes 2017 year where we have pulled forward some of the performance you would have expected in 2017 given the data
has been picking up until the end of this year, and it means that worlds market should remain relatively supported, you will have a year of great uncertainty next year. manus: the year of great uncertainty. the momentum trade or the alpha trade of politics has the currency, in my mind, in terms of the ability to grab volatility and put positions on relative to equities. do you think that is going to be a familiar pattern in 2017? will the dollar be a triumphant trade in 2017? not just for men interest-rate point of view but from a geopolitical point of view? christinia: -- we michael: think the michael: dollar will continue to perform but the extent of the rally, you will not see that repeated. through the mileag emerging markets. and if you see political concerns come to the four, you would expect that to way -- the
fore, you would expect that to weigh on the euro. manus: at the start of the show, i had the s&p 500 at the top. the options surprised me. me, options are -- excuse at a record. 900,000 college positions. -- call-up positions. u.s. grandm, the rally, record after record. are you surprised, do you think it will continue given the fed is in hike mode relative to the rest of the world? michael: we are not surprised. we think the data is justifying it. you were seeing in the middle of this year that there were valid concerns i think about the potential that recession risk in the u.s. was rising. you thought earnings fall and traditionally, a pattern where the bunnies cut back on hiring and business investment.
-- wheres behind us they would cut back on hiring and business investment. that seems behind us. it there is improvement in the fundamental economy driven by a better consumer. that justifies the rally in equities. how much further can you go? you probably see a relatively low but still positive return. manus: single digits? michael: mid single-digit return for u.s. equities. manus: stay with us. we have a little bit more to get you. it let us get back out to rosalind chin. the south korean parliament has impeached president park geun-hye. rosalind chin is on the ground. the national assembly and seoul. seoul.jority -- in that majority, that is going to be well received on the ground. indeed, and it has
been. at the news came out here and we heard a big cheer from the crowd werese these protesters here from the early morning, growing in number, many chanting that they want to impeach president park, and indeed, lawmakers have it loaded this afternoon for only the second time in south korea's history to impeach the president. it is a momentous occasion for south korea. what happens next? the motion will move forward to be decided upon. in the meanwhile, president park will be suspended from her presidential duties and the prime minister -- manus: that is rosalind chin for us outside the parliament in seoul in south korea where we just heard the breaking news. if you are just tuning in, we had the impeachment vote come through in south korea of park geun-hye. the vote came through to impeach or by -- to impeach her.
she was accused of 40 pages on the document. bribery, abuse of power, violating her constitutional duties, so it is official. we have been waiting for this for over the last 24 hours. the vote has come in. let us give you a little bit more breaking news coming through. a member of the european central bank is talking about the decision to trim back the european central bank's 80 billion euros to 60 billion euros a month. mario draghi really pressuring on the point that this is not -- the ecb's rising towards its targets. the decision by the ecb to trim "the decision shows confidence in the european economy."
he says the ecb risks protectionist pressure in europe. there's that word again. protectionism and populism, the two words that would be the hallmarks of 2017. juliette saly with your last business flash of daybreak. juliette: thank you. a company has agreed to by stillwater mining. share in cash8 a for stillwater. the montana-based company is the only u.s. minor of platinum -- miner of platinum. nintendo shares hit the highest in four months in tokyo after marketing its super mario smartphone game. that included giving fans a chance to try out the game in apple store is ahead of its release next week. shares are still about 80% below the six year peak reached in july amid a speculative flurry
that followed the release of the hit mongo game. -- pokemon go game. manus: they give very much. have a great weekend. the breaking news of horace of the day, is that park geun-hye -- of the hour, of the day, is that park geun-hye has been impeached. the -- the kospi has been up as well. the korean won on the other hand, you see a little bit of a rally come through on the korean won. to that end, we just see how the markets react. what are the next steps for park geun-hye? she meets her former cabinet at 5:00 p.m. this evening. we will see what happens with
the fed. the difference with u.s. yields and south korean yields is the ones in 2004. it has been less than 24 hours ecb president has announced the quantitative easing program will run through until 2017 at a slower pace. mike bell is with us. around thebandying word taper, but by any stretch of the imagination, it sounds as if draghi -- besides of this qe has grown and grown and grown. michael: i don't think it is a taper. a paper is when you go 60, 40, down to zero. -- a taper is when you go from 60, 50, 40 down to zero. we will do at least that and we'llf politics flare up, do more. potentially, in 2018, you get a
further reduction and markets will be very focused on the next year. the key thing from the statement yesterday was draghi's statement that the deflation risks have largely disappeared and they have seized into this reflationary theme across the world and particularly in europe. the ecb has been very happy with the announcement yesterday. they are only doing 60 billion a month all the longer end of the and theelds rising removal and deposit rate, yield moves fall. manus: the german first, you know, it is the biggest steepen are in must eight years. to your mind, does that momentum continue? michael: i think it could. the implication of it, if you have lower short-term yields, that could weigh on the euro. the ecb would be happy and euro.e with a weaker the other impactor of this reflationary trade and steeper yield curve is that it wavers the banks. they clearly -- it favors the banks.
if you see medium-term, long-term bond yields continue to rise and in other parts of europe as well, that would continue to favor european banks. i think the clear takeaway from the action yesterday is to favor value stocks over the more defensive stocks in europe. manus: it is interesting. to what extent does the italian -- also stories. denials, decry also, whatever. we are not looking for an extension in monte dei paschi getting our cash in an capital and. could that be the spoiler in the bank story or is that it temporary blip? michael: you have to bear in mind there is a lot of bad news priced into european banks. potentially, you could see some concerns but italian banks are down an awful lot already this year. would we recommend italian banks as the way to play?
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private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. manus: welcome to bloomberg markets, the european open. happy friday. the first trade of the cash session very shortly. what are we watching this morning, matt? part impeached. ofy took the president out power. inflation nation. it factory prices jump, but is this filtering through to consumers? guy: