tv Charlie Rose Bloomberg December 16, 2016 7:00pm-8:01pm EST
>> welcome to the best of berg markets middle east. i'm tracy. the major headlines from the middle east driving headlines this week, turkey changed the d.p., and culates g. it shows its economy expanding faster than india's, despite terror attacks in major urban areas and more. price waterhouse coopers say
the middle east, home to half of -- of the world's oil a target s becoming for cyber attacks. but the big story this week was the agreement from nonopec producers to cut production. saudi arabia surprised markets by saying it will cut more than agreed. >> it's a lot of barrels coming off the market and it's due to take effect from the very beginning of the year, from january 1. so that's a very significant change in the oil market dynamics and likely to start bringing the oil market into balance, probably sartd of middle of 2017. that's what most people are looking at. of course we also have the issue of the stockpiles that need to be drawn down before he -- we end this oversupply.
that will start taking effect once the market reaches bafments the question is when will the market reach bls and then can the deal hold together long enough both with the compliance of the members and can it be extended beyond in initial six-month period? can that be enough to kill the oversupply? >> and hovering in the background we have political rivalry among the opec members and a history of, i don't want to say cheating but maybe not always add hering to the production -- adhering to the production cuts. >> well, you can say cheating. yeah, compliance hasn't been great in the past. i won't name names. some countries have always complited better than others. saudi arabia has shown a huge amount of will to make this world and said they will cut even more than they signed up for even in the first place and
they're cutting more than anyone. could -- so the will is there but if there is widespread noncompliance, then saudi arabia's political will, will be tested. and if you look at the deal we have, russia, iraq, and iran on board, all three sides. so if we look at the syrian war just as an example, barking one side of that, the other side, saudi arabia and its allies in the gulf also part of the deal, sort of backing the other side in that war to simplify it grossly. so there are huge political rival phillies the region and they still managed to get the deal and it looks likely to last unless there say real escalation for -- and that would be something we couldn't -- couldn't really pre2ki7k9 >> yeah. hey, sam, was -- what's the out look for the oil price outlook? >> angie, we've heard a lot of talk it might go over $60 in
the next short period of time, the next few days and some even talked about $70 as a target price now that all these gary -- barrels are curming off the market. what it depends on is how quickly u.s. shale production responds. it will basically take 12 months to have really an impact in the oil market. others say look, we've had this coming online for the coming -- more -- for months but certainly $60 looks like a reasonable price now. >> president-elect donald trump has signad the beginning of a new pro-fossil fuel era with his choices for energy secretary and other key posts. aaron, how would a recollection tillerson secretary of state differ from the values projected by the obama administration?
> yeah, angie, well, you know, rex i will tillerson is a pretty well respected c.e.o. of exxon. and he's a big free trade advocate and energy is something he believes in as well so those are two things he would try to pursue if he's confirmed as secretary of state. obviously he has interacted with a lot of world leaders during his time at exxon. exxon signed a bunch of deals with russia in 2001 to drill in the arctic. he brings those relationships with world leaders to the table and even -- again he's an advocate for free tornado. so the one term that has been used to describe him is he might pursue sort of economic statecraft, so really promoting u.s. business interests overseas. >> and aaron, let's talk about some of trump's other cabinet
picks, especially rick perry to head energy department and scott pruett, potentially head of the e.p.a. >> right. those are two big advocates for fossil fuel. rick perry, the former governor of texas has promoted oil and gas for a long time. he's also a lot of wind power came into being in texas during his time as governor there but he's a big advocate for fossil fuels. pruitt, the attorney general of oklahoma, has really fought against a lot of e.p.a. regulations. i think one thing you would see if both teem -- people are confirmed is really a reduction or decrease in regulations in the oil and gas industry in the u.s. you would likely see production of oil and gas rise and like you said, there is probably, oil and gas and fossil fuels are probably going to play a more prominent role in the u.s. energy mix going forward if these people are confirmed. that's what their values are and certainly what they pursued in their previous positions in state government.
>> joining us now is gary duggan, chief investment b.d..r for emirates this is the yield on the us you benchmark 10 mf year. you can see it is hurtling basically towards 2.5%, quite a change from early yerp in the year and then the white line i believe is oil, it is obviously recovering off the back of that big opec deal. when you see a chart like this, do you think that the paradigm has shifted? is this a new era for markets? >> i think it's not a paradigm shift but certainly a phase we have to go through. i'm not so sure we're going to see an oil price at 80 or 90 dollars. i think we would be fearful of lower prices driving those up but i think we're absorbing this 50 to 55, $60 level and that prabble degrees with the 0-year bond, 2.5% into the
full. >> and another trend is expectations rising off the back of donald trump's plans for infrastructure spending stimulus. does that make life easier or harder for the federal reserve at this point in time in? i think at this point in time it's just very easy to increase interest rates and they wanted to do that and they have plenty of excuses to do that. in the future, as we look at donald trump's ambitions, we're not sure if he will deliver on that. if he doesn't, there may not be follow-through and therefore the fed will have less reason to increase interest rates still further. >> and we heard you were actually in the states last week talking to investors about donald trump and what he could mean for markets. we've seen this tremendous rally particularly in stocks, the selloff in blonds -- bonds we were just discussing.
are investors getting alead of themselves? >> i think they are but i think the excitement will continue through his inauguration and well into the first quarter. they'll wait too see if he can get his fiscal expansion plans through congress. i'm kind of worried that by the middle of next year there will be investor disappointment on the pates of this expansion and that will bring down equities but run with equities at the moment. >> what about bonds? let's pull up this chart where treasuries seem to offer real income once again, especially with this 100% market certainty. how sustainable is this? you see -- sayek wities but can nds finally start presenting yields for investors once again? >> yes, i think they'll be looking at this close to 2 ps 5% level and thinking this is
long-term value. it really isn't in the bag, there are stale lot of question marks as to whether donald trump will be able to advisor -- deliver on his ambitions. ands support for central markets and banks might start to wa flmplet e. you will see some buyers at 2.5%. i'm not shoo -- so sure we'll break through that and run to 3% as some suggest. >> what about the certainty of a trump stimulus? both market -- both are getting market response here to the positive side but how certain are we? >> i think on opec and nonopec moves we're looking at an oil price that probably stays within that $50 to $60 band. i'm not sure the market would discuss something higher than that.
consensus building on wall street is he may only achieve 20 to 30% of his targeted increases in spending and tack cuts so that wouldn't necessarily promote a greater positive move in markets beyond aybe 5 -- 5% to 6% higher on equits here. >> and let's bring it all home. we have dueling forces for the gulf here. higher u.s. prices and higher bond yields. essentialy a tightening of financial conditions. where is na going to play out? what is going to be the dominant force the next year or so? >> i -- on the interest rate rise we're expecting this week, i'm not so sure it's a big problem. if it was let's say 100 points more yes, big problem. but i think we're going to take hope that the nonopec agreements stick, that the oil price stays in the band of 50
to 60 and not risk going back down to 30. i think the markets can do well. bonds have a little bit more challenge just because that 10 yealed has gone up in the united states. >> all right. 6 how should investors in 201 set themselves up? >> i think you run with the current theme. for the first part of the year, not sure if it's one or two quarters, equities will push on. i think there is a lot of excitement that the pro-growth policies of trump will prevail. we think markets will follow but beyond that back to reality. still an aging population, very high indebtedness and come the first quarter or back end of it you will be looking at bonds again and taking your profits on equities. >> coming up, the operator of pakistan's main stock exchange
>> this is the best of blerk markets middle east. the karachi stock exchange plans to sell a stake of up to 40% to investors this month and the deadline for bids was this month. we asked how the process is going. > the market cap to g.d.p. ratio, the metric, is about 30% at this point in time. before the financial crisis it was 40%. in asia, 70%. so we have some way to go there. >> all right. and in tems of foreign investors coming into the market what are you seeing? because clearly the rally has some foreign participation but perhaps not as much as some people might expect. >> yes. actually in a perverse sort of way, year to date you have an
outflow from foreign investors of about $230 million but you have an inflow from domestic institutions of about $450 million so it's the domestics that are pushing up the market tip point in time. >> right. but that seems odd because we did just have the index cle -- included in the emerging market index after leaving it some years ago. so why aren't foreigners coming into the market? >> i think it's more a swap going on. i think frontier market players coming in and the emerging players are going to start coming in. it's a bit of a ticker tape ssue with issues of zpngs -- expansioning and they're selling in the pressure. >> nadim, i want to about -- ask about investors of at kind, and that is for your stake sale of the karachi stock exchange. reportedly a 40% stake to be
sold. who is interested? >> well, legally speaking i cannot give you the specific -- specific names but i can give you broadly speaking there is interest from china and both the u.k. and u.s. so at the maholm after the whole set of about 19 parties that applied for the expression of interest, two strategic players have come in and we are going to have some bid og on thursday so let's say, let's see which parties actually get the higher bid in. istanbul also biddle -- bidding here? >> no. they kind of opted out a couple months ago because they had their own restructuring going on. they were initially one of the foremost players but now they're out of the picture. >> all right. give us an insight into the road shows you've been having with potential investors. how are those going?
and come thursday are you going to be satisfied with the outcome of the stake sale process? >> well, strategically speaking there were four parameters that our regulator set. one was to increase the investor base substantially. another was to upgrade technology, the third to enable pakistani companies to access international markets and finally to increase liquidity in the market by bringing in more products. the two major con sortia that are competing have all these things in their business plan. so our road show to most of the potential investors took these four strategic issues as the main reasons we want to divest. >> and on thursday are you going to be happy with the price? i know it's early but give us a clue. that is actually the divest
ment committee and the potential bidder. i am basically an observer in this entire picture. but i think expectations are that given the performance of the market and the outlook, they should get a decent price there. >> all right. here's a slightly tougher question for you then. the ks 100 indelk, the benchmark, there's been some criticism about whether or not that actual hi represents the wider pakistan market. is it represent? -- representative? >> i think it is broadly representative. 20% is oil and gas sector, 20% is banking sector. if you take a look 10 years ago and today, there say huge difference, even five years ago because oil and gas used to be 30% plus. so sectors keep on changing, if you take a look at singapore or other emerging markets you still have these couple of big sectors that are 40 to 50% of
market capitalization. i don't think we're that different. consumer demand some pakistan is high. we're seeing 100% expansion in cement, in steel, and more than 70% expansion in auto asmably. >> coming up, a hack attack on saudi arabia's central bank highlights flaws in middle east cyber security. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
computers. as you said, the ministry of transport, the central bank and the authority that runs airports. and we don't know much really about that attack but we know it hit a few thousand computers, that the data was damaged. luckily the ministries were able to gather or restore some that of lost data tanned this attack in a way highlights, comes actually just four years after another attack, actually carries a similar name or the same name, shamoon, that tacked saudi aramco and hitd 35,000 computers. left laptop prices up for about a quarter in global markets because aramco ficials scrambled around the tworled buy laptops to bring operations back to work. >> that's an amazing statistic.
i know it's early days but do we have any clues as to who might be behind this latedest round of attacks? -- latest round of attacks? >> nobody has claimed responsibility. but during the first attack in ar am co four years ago fingers were pointed atd iran. but the issue is, this is a much bigger issue than a state actor targeting another state government ministry or state-owned companies. this is what experts are saying, this is a much bigger threat that could come from individuals, that could come from individual criminal gangs, one of the i.t. companies, for example, said that six months ago they noticed an attack that targeted several banks in the region and i know that just a few years ago one of the local banks here in the united erab emirates lost about 40 million
when hackers targeted credit cards, stealing people's money. so we're talking about different kind of threat sources that affect everyone from individuals to governments to government-owned companies. i mean it's an extremely, an extremely dangerous threat. especially we're talking about a region that is home to about 40% or sorry, to about half of the oil reserves in the world. so imagine if an attack like this hits an oil facility and stops and disrupts oil production? again, the same poll that price waterhouse conducted shows that the region lags behind the world in terms of education and training of their staff for cyber security attacks. i mean what's the point of buying all that advanced equipment if you can't use it? >> next on "the beftd of
>> welcome back to "best of bloomberg markets: middle east." and a series of rate cuts failed, new accounting methods have succeeded in a $140 billion boost economy.rkish here's how turkey did it. iswhat turkey has done prevent investors -- the way done that, it's gone back and revised the g.d.p. accounting methodology. resulted in 14 of the last 15 years, g.d.p. growth figures improving. so as you said, whereas last year, the economy was supposed to have contracted, we thought
had a 720 billion economy, in fact it turns out that the grew, and grew to 865 billion. people reeling as they try to take account of these changes. reactingw are people over there? >> well, with some confusion. the strange thing is not the released figure, which shows that the economy shrunk 1.8% year over year. that's everything you might expect from an economy that's withng with a failed coup, slowing investment. but the strange thing is the all these other figures. which themselves sit very strangely with other more high-frequency measures of the .conomy, industrial output -- g.d.p., it
turns out, grew 6.1%, higher than the 4% previously thought. the gap is having people pore over the statistics quite closely. >> absolutely. i mean, they're going to have to pore over it. but in terms of concrete things that the actual government is are they doing anything concrete to improve the economy over there? seems like the government is actually the only one doing anything. if you look at the most recent figures, i said there was a contraction in almost all for government consumption, which increased 24%. if there's any growth, it's definitely government-led. of course, how healthy that is is subject to some debate. >> saudi arabia is said to be taking a leaf out of south korea's book as part of its economic transformation plans. a number of key companies into global household
names. how exactly is saudi arabia to accomplish this? >> well, it's a big fete, definitely. to -- they trying hired some advisors to consult them on how to achieve that initially. and the idea, the thinking goes that basically they want to trying to boost this company's profile and reputation all theing them ecosystem that goes around creating a big company that, goes for research and development, supply chain, probably provide them with some financial incentives and help and so on.unds and they are trying to basically can boost thehey private sector and create jobs through that plan. to pick up onted that point. give us some more color here, because of course saudi arabia to transform its economy, trying to wean itself reliance on oil and energy for some time. exactly what will this do in the
pursuit of this goal? they are in the beginning of this. so yet we don't know the details will accomplish this, step by step. but this is the kind of the stroke. but you're looking at an economy that right now is only 40% private sector. trying to boost that to 65% by 2030. population that's 70% young, all youth. they need to provide jobs for those people. an unemployment problem as well. >> exactly. so they are kind of trying to see how much they can converge to provide aues solution for a big problem. and they're kind of looking to what international investors can offer them on that, because if they bring these big companies and signal support for these companies, you may end up lot the ability to draw a of financial, you know, investments from overseas to these companies. >> how is such a move perceived
investors? >> basically investors are telling us this would be such a move for saudi arabia, because so far, a lot of the companies in saudi arabia can be known for international investors. ofproviding a bedroo benchmark companies that are big, supported and helped by the government can help drive a lot activity, a lot of support towards these companies, a lot of investment towards them. and in many ways, you can end up that is clustered around certain industries that sees saudi arabia competitive in, like petro chemicals. >> the emirates economy tracker is just out with a fresh reading 55.2 for november. that is up from 53.2 in october. to discuss is the head of the research for emirates mbd. i suppose we should start with
the obvious question. recovery?ving this >> so in november, the data was particularly strong for travel wholesale andd retail trade. travel and tourism actually reached a series high in terms the pmi, a reading of over 57, which certainly signals a strong rate of growth in the tourism sector last month. >> so if travel and tourism -- well, travel and tourism are the best-performing sectors. dubai'sa vindication of economic transformation to some extent, or are there short-term play?s at >> i think one of the factors which may have had an impact on the november numbers is the introduction of visas on arrival for chinese visitors, something announced in september but only came into effect late october, early november. i think that may have contributed somewhat to the exceptionally high reading for travel and tourism. but i think it's a sector that adjusting really well to the fact that they've had competitiveness eroded because the strong currency, so hotels have reduced their
revenues per room. reduced their records to try to maintain high occupancy levels. this time of year is normally a season for the hospitality sector. i do think travel tourism is going to be one of the big drivers of dubai's economy. turn to the weak spots now, because we did, for instance, see construction down a bit. >> well, it was flat from october's reading. low indexuite a number, so under 52. showing a little bit of expansion but not nearly as much i think some people would like to see. i do think that, you know, optimism in the sector is quite high. the survey does check for optimism about the coming 12 months. remains about 70. strongly optimistic about the coming 12 months. i think a lot of that is driven by expectations about spending projects that probably are going to start kicking off in earnest next year. to see someing improvement in the construction
segment indicators from the beginning of next year. gauge the currency volatility and fluctuation as a stronger u.s. dollar, as a result of all things being fomc tightening? >> so we're expecting a strong because weg forward, are expecting the fed to continue with its tightening program next year. we're looking for rate hikes in 2017. briefly, with gcc currencies, that automatically is going to have an impact on and on dubai's services sectors in particular. firms have adjusted to that, to a large extent. we've seen consistent price as one of the strategies that's been employed to try and maintain volume, face of aen in the stronger currency. tothat definitely is going have to be the case, moving forward. there is an expectation of a in the wan.akness for those chinese tourists,
be a really to important factor, when they decide where they're gonna go. >> absolutely. i do think, though, that the fact that it's easier for tonese visitors to come dubai than it is perhaps for them to travel to western europe they may places where need to get visas well in advance is certainly going to be a benefit. we've also seen a lot of firms in the hospitality sector the chinese market specifically to try and attract those visitors and grow that market, where we've seen slightly slower growth in for dubai. markets >> i believe the dubai tracker, this particular tracker, doesn't take into account what's happening with energy firms in the region. research head of mina hat on, please give us some insight into what's going on in that of the other side of picture. >> you're right. the tracker just looks at non-oil sector activity. have seen when we look at the overall pmi's,
though they're non-oil surveys, manufacturing in the region is very heavily oil-related. pmi's havet that the continued to show expansion, though it's been significantly weaker than 2015, we still continue to see growth in the manufacturing sector. think that reflects stronger output growth. the looking into 2017 with opec agreement to cut output, i think that is going to way on pmi readings in some aspects, particularly related to the manufacturing sector. we're hoping is that we start to see an acceleration in growth, in construction, in investments,e, ecial in the u.a.e. that should help offset any terms of oil-related manufacturing next year. >> here's a slightly longer-term you.ion for would you expect a big rally in oil prices if it continues to of the attempts at
diversification in terms of the economy that have been made? >> it's a good question. i think a lot of the changes beenhave already implemented, i don't think those going to be reversed. but even if we see oil prices rally up to, you know, 65, 70, 85 dollars a barrel, i don't think arernments in the region going to come back in and say, we're going to reintroduce subsidies. i think the damage has been done haveonsumers are going to to continue to adjust to those higher energy prices. that in itself is going to provide another factor which needs to be taking into account. see a sustained rise in oil prices, that is going to feed through to inflation in the sector in terms of household consumption as well. not is something we've really seen in this region before. we're going to have to see how that plays out.
>> this is the "best of bloomberg markets: middle east." prices, 2017g oil could be a tough year for the middle east and africa. chief investment officer predicts tough austerity measures will see a -- see a rallyertainly in prices over the next couple weeks, maybe over the next months. and that is certainly welcomed. a lot of our positions will that.t from at the same time, we've seen a paradigm shift in this region. austerityhe vicious measures that have been taking place over the last two years a lot ofto stay, so the government reforms, spending cuts, a lot of the debt and
that have built up on bank balance sheets are not going to change. we also have to remember that u.s. shale is there to switch on that prices hit $55 a barrel. they brought on 22 rigs last week from 4200. they're coming on fast. they're going in to lock in. coming aligned. so opec has put somewhat of a on oil prices for some time. >> walk us through where we are cycle.distress debt is this the first inning, the inning? what do you think? >> i think we started the cycle about one year ago. there's always lag effect whenever there's a collapse in the region. lehman, it took a year for asset price to really tumble. collapsed this time around, we didn't start seeing the pain until really 2015. would say that we're probably in the first, you know, quarter if we were looking at a
game of four quarters. >> you're not playing with the baseball analogy. basketball instead. ha! well, whichever quarter we're in, it seems like we are witnessing secular change. >> yeah. we certainly are. of the reforms and a lot of the measures that have taken place are the economies. a lot of the countries in the region making long-term touctural changes in order diversify their economies for the long term. so a lot of these measures are say.to >> when we talk about middle east and africa, what are we talking about here, and how are warning off investors, off of these equity markets? >> we're talking about all the way east, from turkey, you know, way sideways to morocco, down to south africa. geographic mandate that we look at. so that's the space that we look
at. >> okay. are they mispriced, in your view? of -- sorry. can you please repeat the question? >> do you think those markets are mispriced right now? because we are seeing -- i mean, some of the markets that you mentioned, we are still seeing some jubilance. >> we certainly are. in general, the markets in the middle east and africa are mispriced. that's because they're pretty much dominated by retail investors on the equity size. and these retail investors don't really focus on fundamentals. mispricings lot of that result in general. when it comes to times of turbulence and volatility that seen over the last couple of years, these mispricings are even more exaggerated. it's -- you know, our job to play off the fear and greed basically, pendulum swinging through this cycle, taking advantage of asset prices when sellings panic and also
these assets back when investors are overly excited about the prospects. >> gus, let's get into some specifics. what are you buying at this time? in loans,ulf equities, bank turkish property, where is the value? >> we're looking at a lot of angles actually. one of our most recent ofestments is a hospital out saudi, that has a large backup receivables. we're spending a lot of time on the receivable space in saudi, public equities and trade claims. claimse looking at trade and providing alternative capital solutions and at the same time we're identifying equities that have a large backlog of receivables that are economies, just having liquiditysues by -- issues. >> when i think of distressed look at aies and i
chart of the lira, i think that might be a good hunting ground, so to speak. >> it certainly is. unfortunately, turkey is somewhat of a basket case. very fertile be a investment landscape for distressed equity and credit toestors in the near midterm. the currency pressures that we're seeing right now are it even more challenging for local corporates to serves s hard currency denominated debt. the same goes for a lot of the importers. having to import when the lira is falling. has no morebank independence. even local citizens don't trust the currency. i think we're going to see a lot of opportunities arise in the bank credit space and also in the equity side. up next on "the best of bloomberg markets: middle east," sea world plans to open its first theme park outside the u.s. and it's significantly different. details, next. bloomberg. ♪
>> welcome back to "the best of bloomberg markets: middle east." sea world is opening its first park without orcas, to cope with flat attendance numbers and criticism from animal rights groups. it will be in abu dhabi, sea outside the u.s. matthew martin answered the biggest question, why abu dhabi? is looking for some expansion. it needs growth. it's still coping with a huge of bad press from its treatment of the orcas that it has there. ways, the middle east and abu dhabi in particular is an obvious choice, because start, abu dhabi is going to pay to build the park. and also, there's no particularly vocal animal rights lobby in the middle east. enable them too get over that hurdle of not theng to discuss too much treatment of its animals that it keeps in the park. >> why does abu dhabi want sea world?
tothe company was created lead the development of theme parts is doing is partnering like warner bros., with ferrari, with f1, to create -- almost like, for has been to singapore or a place like orlando, well, in the u.s., it's a big cluster of place.ments all in one it's just gonna -- i think ultimately the idea will be, buy onee able to ticket, you'll be able to go to all of these different parks. also planning to build this special transport system where you can zip around between all these different overheads like railways. it's going to try and put abu map. on the tourism >> and that is it for this "the best of bloomberg markets: middle east." the region.ahead in we'll be keeping an eye on the continued fallout from central bank decisions around the world, the federal reserve. we'll be right here for the start of the trading week, in
>> coming up on "bloomberg best ," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. >> i think the fed took a small step beyond just being a dependent. >> the oil outlook brightens for crude. and the changing of the guarded goldman sachs. >> goldman sachs is making this move from a position of strength. >> donald trump continues to construct his cabinet. his unconventional picks spark discussion. >> if you are going to be