tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 30, 2017 4:00am-7:01am EST
francine: the backlash of president trump's administration crackdown. a global response from heads of state and business leaders. european markets strengthen amid a flight to safety. how do unpredictable actions from the president of the united states affect investment decisions? an outsider wins the french but marineomination, le pen when less leaves in the
first round. pen leads in the first round. this is the picture overall for the asset classes you should be watching. this, first of all, is the picture for european stocks, down a little. global stocks have been declining as traders try to weigh the impact of donald trump's order halting immigration. that is ahead of big central-bank decisions from the u.s. and japan this week. crude falling below $53 a barrel. a little bit of movement on dollar-yen and euro-dollar. we will get back to the markets, although most of the story is in foreign policy, so let's get to the first word news. here is nejra cehic. nejra: 64 have been killed and eight injured in a shooting at the quebec city mosque during evening prayers. authorities say two people have been arrested after what prime minister justin trudeau: act of terrorism. please believe there are other
suspects and have not released in custody. two the united states says it is toing steps to return order air travel following president trump's travel ban on seven predominantly muslim countries. homeland security says permanent residents from nations covered by the executive order should no longer be contained at airports. crowds of thousands gathered across the united states to protest the travel restriction. trump also drew criticism from global allies such as justin trudeau and german chancellor angela merkel. senators from the president's own party, notably john mccain and lindsey graham, suggested in a joint statement that the action had been too broad and is potentially damaging to the u.s. ukip prime minister theresa may is to meet the leaders of scotland, wales, and northern ireland, days after judges ruled they do not need to be consulted about brexit. among those joining the meeting anotherdavid davis and
secretary. the supreme court said the process of leaving the e.u. will require the approval of the u.k. parliament, but not original lawmakers. the former education minister will carry the socialist flag in the french presidential election, having unseated the more establishment cabinet. 59% of the vote in the two week primary is expected to face france law -- francois fillon and marine le pen in the spring. wellness 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. a weekend ofer chaos and confusion over donald trump's travel ban on seven muslim countries -- muslim majority countries, an attempt to allay concerns over who it affects. -- original ban applied to people with a right to live and work in the united states, but the president's chief of staff said it does not affect them.
>> here is the deal. if you are coming in and out of one of those seven countries -- by the way, identified by the obama administration as the seven most dangerous countries in the world, in regard to hiring terrorists, and affirmed by congress multiple times -- then you are going to be subjected, temporarily, with more questioning. francine: let's get some reaction from a member of eurasia group. he joins us down the line. what hasen you look at happened over the last couple of days, a lot of federal district court's actually blocked the implementation of this band. does it mean there is a rule of law, that institutions are working properly in the u.s.? >> thanks for having me, francine. what it does tell us is that absolute chaos internally within the u.s. system. you have differing points of view emanating from the white
house, from homeland security -- across the executive and different branches of government. and the judicial branch, as you have correctly said, has come out against some of trump's actions. there is no coherence coming out of the u.s. right now. that is creating a huge amount of concern. not simply the order itself, but just a lack of any coherent trajectory coming out of the u.s. has created a lot of concern, certainly, here in europe. francine: that was weak one of the trump presidency. what will we two bring? do they need to regroup with something the president actually listens to that can make him more like the previous president? mij: i think what we are seeing, francine, is the type of unpredictability that is very likely going to characterize this administration. .hat is what i would say a clear sign that some of the populists are gaining the upper hand in trump's administration.
the individual, of course, i would point to most explicitly would be bannon and his role in the white house, and more generally over policy. he will also be a sitting member all ofnsc, involved in the foreign policy and security decisions. it is something, again, that i think is raising a large number of eyebrows all across the world. it is very difficult to know what the trajectory is going to be like, but i think the unpredictability we have seen over the course of this weekend is likely to characterize this administration, going forward. that has got a lot of people very, very worried. this band confused a lot of allies and businesses. how the european leaders deal with donald trump? great question, francine. theresa may's trip to the u.s. is just one good example of how difficult the diplomacy around dealing with the new u.s. administration is going to be for european leaders.
may, obviously, in washington to try to talk about the, let's say, special relationship between the brits and the americans, and try to make quick progress on a u.k.-u.s. trade deal. of course, may's intervention now looks terribly ill-timed, if you look at her enthusiastic embrace of the trump administration prior to the executive order on extreme bedding, and you compare them to the chili and frosty, defensive reactions from the french, from the germans -- it really does put may in a very different place from that of the rest of europe. think of the challenges she is going to have to execute in the coming brexit negotiations, the difference from the europeans on this question is, i think, going to create more headwinds for her in the article 50 negotiation. a lot of concern in european and a difficult
balancing act, i think, for the brits in particular. francine: does this in any way influence -- are there read across influences to the french and german elections? mij: indirectly, i think it does. if you do have folks like bannon clearly gaining the upper hand in the administration -- and you saw some of trump's comments to theresa may,: brexit a wonderful thing. he has had a conversation with putin and the discussion around russian sanctions relaxation. in fact, trump may visit viktor the mostthe spring, anti-european, antidemocratic leader in europe. this crazy huge amount of concern in europe. you have elections in france, the netherlands, the netherlands -- in france and the netherlands, were populism is viral. they are concerned about the extent to which a historic ally
seems to be promulgating and trying to develop these populist forces. i think europeans are very concerned about this. they're concerned about the u.s. stance on a whole host of issues that have historically characterized cooperation. but much more narrowly, they are very concerned about the impact the u.s. is going to have on their own elections, in their own backyard. francine: thank you for joining us today. mij is with eurasia group. the executive order effects iran, iraq, yemen, and sudan, and prevents residents from entering the u.s. president trump says the aim is to stop terrorists from entering the country and to gain hold of the immigration system. let's go to the middle east. if you look at some of the reaction, are people still confused about who can travel and who cannot? is there still chaos at airports? reporter: i would not describe it as chaos, in a sense, francine. dubai, abu, and :00 are used as
hubs to reach into the u.s. from some of these countries. it is not that with the kind of quantities that would disrupt air travel. as of things, no disruptions at airports. in terms of the broader reaction, uproar in the countries affected. we heard from the iranian news agency, describing this as an insult to muslims, saying they would take reciprocal action. this raises the specter for a possible tit-for-tat, with serious implications for the nuclear deal they just signed in 2015. but francine, for the rest of remarkablyt has been quiet. this is seen as a domestic security issue. these countries are already facing intense scrutiny. the citizens of these countries face intense security restrictions while coming to this part of the world. or the gulf leaders, it appears to be nothing new, as it were, and pretty much playing catch-up. their remarkable column in -- remarkable calm in dealing with
this is maybe era flexion of the status quo and how leaders in this part of the world feel about the situation. francine: you said president trump spoke to gulf leaders over phone by the -- during the weekend. how did leaders react? yousef: that is the crux of the issue. he spoke with the saudi king for as much as an hour. guess what? they did not even mention any immigration bands. they spoke about everything else, because the readouts of telling us anything from security issues to fighting terrorism in this part of the world. iran.so what to do in i want to quote from the statement saying they would tackle iran to the stable iran's the stabilizing regional activities. we are seeing faultlines in public opinion. the markets for the moment taking this pretty much in stride. francine: thank you. for more on trump's travel ban,
we will speak to the harvard university president emeritus, larry summers. he certainly was very punchy when we spoke to him in davos 10 days ago. a reminder, if you are a bloomberg customer, you can watch the show using tv go on the bloomberg terminal. you can look at who we have coming up. and all of our great, great charts we put on. you can also message us directly. that is the blue at the bottom of the screen. give us your suggestions or thoughts on the program. let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here is nejra cehic. nejra: starbucks plans to hire 10,000 refugees over five years around the world, after president trump's immigration action. ceo howard schultz wrote that he had a heavy heart, and that the promise of the american dream is being called into question. in a letter to employees, he wrote, starbucks is in contact with staff affected by the immigration ban, and will do everything possible to help them
navigate through the confusion. its title as the top-selling car maker in the world, despite its main rival suffering the worst year in its history. it sold 10.2 million vehicles worldwide in 2016, while volkswagen managed 10.3 million. vw ended toyota's four-year reign, while struggling with fallout. said to beo is considering up to $5 billion of investments in renewable energies as part of its plan to diversify away from oil. sources say several big lenders, including hsbc, j.p. morgan, and credit suisse, have been approached to identify targets and advise on deals. saudi arabia will produce at least 30% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. delta airlines halted american flights because of a technology failure. it is the second major domestic u.s. airline to ground services due to computer glitches and only a week, following united
continental. delta's international flights are exempt from the grounding, which was caused by automation issues, the federal aviation ministration said in a statement. francine: thank you so much. president trump's order bochy entry to the u.s. from seven muslim majority countries is a major test of the corporate world embrace of the new white house. a weekend of protests has left executives with a tricky choice. speak out, and risk drawing fire from an outspoken president? or stay silent, and faced criticism from employees and activists? our senior reporter in london has written about this and joins us now. also joining us is the head of assets at royal london asset management. thank you so much. congratulations on a pretty powerful story. give me a sense of who, so far, has spoken out against the ban, and who has not. reporter: this is an interesting study in corporate attitudes to crisis management. we had, over the weekend, very
quickly, for much all the silicon valley giants -- google, facebook, apple, netflix, particularly -- going very far out to say they were implacably opposed to this policy, which was antithetical to their values, to american values. it was a lot slower from other big companies. we did have general election that general electric with a very measured statement on sunday, one of the few big retail countries -- companies which came out was starbucks, which is quite progressive, not a huge surprise here in a lot of silence. the auto industry not weighing in, it is amazing when you consider michigan has the largest arab community, by far, in the united states. companies are taking different approaches. francine: why is that? silicon valley, i guess the implications of the companies are huge. there are big backlashes from a tweet. matthew: in silicon valley, it is very practical.
there is a desperate shortage of people with engineering and computer science backgrounds in the u.s. these are companies that are enormously dependent on immigration to keep growing, to keep the r&d effort they need to maintain. on a somewhat more personal note for a lot of silicon valley leaders, if you look at apple, steve jobs -- son of a syrian migrant. the ceo of google, born in india. document della of microsoft, born in india. google,rin, founder of born in russia. for them, it is personal. francine: if you look at how you calculate risk -- this is the dow jones industrial average. the first circle, a very short blip. that is trump being elected, and then it was back up. the markets seems to largely ignore what happened over the weekend. guest: i was expecting a
significant market reaction from the dollar and stock markets, but there has been hardly anything at this stage. the points you noted, the brexit event and the election of trump, there was a very intense 24-hour panic, during which point central indicators got very beaten up. very quickly, people were buying. they were buying after brexit because people thought it is going to mean the fed is hiking rates and we are buying after trump because people thought it would be additional stimulus for the u.s. economy. i think the business cycle is looking strong. the markets are willing to look through a lot of fiscal risk. if there is a downturn, they will taken more seriously. francine: we were talking about the relationship between big business and the trump administration, and potentially this could hurt earnings. you curb immigration and you cannot find talent, or if he starts imposing tariffs in china , there is backlash. it is these companies that will be hurt. therefore, the fundamentals will go down. trevor: i think the same could be said of brexit.
it will be a limit on trade, perhaps, in the u.k., it u.k. stock prices have not reflected that at this stage. are very tangible, but very gradual, where is the stock market tends to be more interested in the price here and now, at the moment. the survey of small businesses forecasting 3% growth in america. the data is strong. the earnings revision is very strong. corporate tax cuts have resulted in a big step up in expectations in the u.s. short-term, that is what the markets are focused on. francine: do we know the relationship between -- what the relationship between trump and businesses will be? i think it will be interesting to see. as we saw in davos, the companies are falling all over themselves about how they can think they can work with this white house. they think donald trump is a pragmatic businessman. they set off and on record that some of his more inflammatory
campaign promises around trade and immigration and nato were just posturing. that in the case of this migrant band, is was an inflammatory campaign promise which he very much intended to follow through upon. i think if you are a company withg to make your peace the white house, you have to wonder what that means for other situations like trade. trevor: a few people said you did not have to take him literally, but seriously. you have to taken literally and seriously. francine: joining us on this great story. i urge you to check it out. we are also getting breaking news out of the foreign minister of russia. he is actually speaking with the president of eritrea. mr. lavrov saying the putin-trumptalks -- talks over the weekend went well. there is no indication they really talked about sanctions. it is interesting for me that he is talking to eritrea's
president. i wonder what russia and eritrea were talking about. it will be hard not to talk about the immigration ban from president trump and what that means for the future and the new world order. of next, with decisions from the fed and the boj over the week, how will central banks deal with the trump turbulence? ♪
surveillance" in london. a big week for central banks with decisions from the u.s., u.k., japan, and russia. how will instability from intodent trump's play their decisions? trevor, if you are a central know how do not really to model the trump presidency at this point, i imagine. trevor: i think what you tend to do, if you take a lead from markets -- if you think about the period immediately after brexit, there was turbulence, and the fed referred to that is one of the reasons not to raise interest rates in september. at this point, we cannot point to markets and say there is turbulence. i do not think it will him and john the much. what will be interesting is, if they try to raise interest rates this year, whether they get support from the white house of the independence of their decisions. francine: for the moment, the market has given their full support to president trump,
right? since the moment he got elected. what will it take for that to change, for the rotation, and therefore having a big impact on central banks? trevor: it is hard to say. lots of different things have happened in the last eight days or so which could, on their own, have been the reason for a correction in stock markets, just in terms of businesses becoming concerned. think really what would cause a correction is any sense of backtracking on stimulus. at the moment, there is a kind of uneasy feeling that we are hearing all the bad stuff about the wall with mexico and travel bans and tariffs. we are not hearing a lot of good stuff, economically speaking, about things like fiscal stimulus and how it is going to happen. if there is a sense he is backtracking on the stimulus side of things, i think a lot of us will be more concerned. francine: let me bring up my bloomberg terminal. this is a percentage of the balance sheet of various central banks. in red, you have the bank of japan. blue is the european central
bank. the white, you have the fed. the boj and governor kuroda are still having a tough time to push this through. trevor: yes, they are. the japanese, the deflationary whatonment for 20 years, they are doing at the moment -- they are trying to create inflation through monetary weakness, and why wouldn't you try to do that? i think i have a sensitive mix of policies. the fed is more likely to be tightening than easing with underlying stock strength. francine: trevor handles all the assets at royal london asset management. up next, an investment in cereal. a brexit boost to britain. ♪
at a comeback city mosque. two people have been arrested after what canada's prime minister called an act of terrorism. police don't believe there are -- there are other suspects. restoring order to global air transport following president trump's ban on 7% early muslim countries. permanent u.s. residents from nations covered by the executive order should no longer be detained at airports. crowds of thousands gathered across the united states to protest the restrictions. trump drew criticism from global allies such as justin trudeau and german chancellor angela merkel. john mccain and lindsey graham suggested that the action had been too broad and was potentially damaging to the u.s. may prime minister theresa
is set to talk with leaders of wales and northern violent -- northern ireland. among those in the meeting will be brexit secretary david davis and secretary liam voss who says the process of leading -- leaving the eu will require the approval of parliament but not regional lawmakers. the socialist flag in the french presidential election, having defeated the more establishment candidate. he took 59% of the vote and is expected to face a conservative former prime minister and the far right leader in the spring. local news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. francine: changing the approach to export since the u.k. vote to eu -- to leave the eu.
have a company's plan for a post-brexit u.k.? assetal london's management, i don't know how you invest or look at pounds, but pound weekend -- pound weakness has an impact on exports but it is town volatility that people are worried about. >> if you look at the with political crises tend to affect their currencies, emerging market trade is looking at the exchange rate and when it starts to rise, they tend to reduce their exposure. easier than that is trying to read in brazil or wherever. time to looking at reduce exposure. francine: let me bring it to my chart. this is back to november 7. this is just before the u.s. election. laste bottom over the
couple of months, two weeks ago. now it is back up. what does this chart, tracking three months of volatility, tell us. timescale, last time you had a serious rise was october when the pound dropped quite a long way versus the dollar. recently we had that spike a couple of weeks ago and it is just further back. it felt a bit like the pound was going to have another phase there. but the markets of comes down again. after two years of quite difficult negotiations, there will be moments where pound volatility will be something again. in inne: what is priced the single market? >> at the moment, the sterling exchange rate is stable. when we get to the motions were the negotiators it difficult, there will be times when volatility picks up in the pound
takes another move down. in the meantime, if the economy stays strong, that will put pressure on the pound as well. it could be drifting higher with occasional political setbacks. francine: what are you expecting ceos to pull back investment from the u.k.? or does pound weakness make it more attractive? >> we will see manufacturers, but on the other hand we will get services coming back so we are seeing the bank of england services getting much more cautious post-brexit. we have not seen evidence post-hard brexit. so you will see services starting to be more cautious, saying they are going to move people elsewhere. ceocine: let's stick to one who is putting 30 million pounds in u.k. manufacturing. weetabix.m
if you are a global viewer it is basically breakfast cereal. thank you so much for joining us. 30 million. why? we are seeing increasing demand for our products in the u.k. and we also asked in markets around the world. growing demand from other countries, specifically china where we saw our business double last year. -- does it it fall help falling for exports or is it counterproductive? >> it is a double-edged sword>>. reinvestment is based on the long term. the pound in the short-term. we are seeing inflationary impact and the raw materials are the exportbut quantity, there is benefit their. francine: are you worried about tariffs going up? if there are trade wars in the next few years.
are you a takeover target? do you feel like one? >> there is a lot of speculation and i'm going to comment on that. we feel good about the u.k. market. we are excited about the future. we believe there is a role for healthy plan -- healthy brands in china. francine: do you overall think that consumer spending will go down? we talked about this in previous interviews where people are introducing to health fitness and a healthier lifestyle, so even if there is consumer spending in the downturn you will be able to not suffer from that. >> i think definitely there will be some consumer impact. i think we are a good valued breakfast. we are a good start to the day.
so it is a healthy way. we generally do well in tougher economic times. 90% of breakfast is still at home so we feel well positioned and we are the healthiest rent out there and therefore we are writing that trend. g that trend. francine: this has taken off in the last four or five years. is it a californian thing? to eat better breakfast? >> i think general fitness is reducing sugar in breakfast cereals and obviously, there are more sugary versions. >> all our products, we use traffic in the u.k., they would be amber or green. >> i wouldn't get my children off weetabix. francine: the amber tells you, it is best >> it means it is mid-level.
francine: are we expecting this kind of level of appetite for your products? >> i think we are seeing, in the u.k., we are in the healthy segment of the market. there is a desire to have a healthy start to the day. what you are seeing in london and the bigger cities is more eating on the go but generally, 90% of british families still have breakfast at home. we are seeing this increasing desire for international brands, particularly in china with his foods. so that has benefited our growth as we have expanded. francine: josh to rail, the ceo of we rex. including ag up, socialist party pick. towill focus on the race
become the next president as criticism mounts over president trump's immigration order. we will get analysis from sources and what his travel restrictions will mean for the u.s. middle east relations. we will be live from our reporter in abu dhabi. tune in radio daybreak live at london. this is bloomberg. ♪
hold some immigration has prompted a flight to safety today, drawing criticism from some major corporations. i will bring in the geopolitical and international risks surrounding the u.s. president. week inive for the last four weeks. the most since november. this is the bloomberg dollar spot index. it felt to the lowest level since november. it is now heading for a sixth straight week. that is the worst run since august 2010. 2.5% hitting that record back on january the third. dollar, boj, boe, on, and it all culminates friday with the u.s. jobs report.
in germany and italy, rising today but yields in italy are rising more than yields in germany is the spread between the two is widening. the is what we reached at end of last year, nearing 1.9, the highest in two years. they's 10 year yield is at highest since july 2015 in germany with the high of january 2016, big day in reflation out of germany. theing the stage for national figure later, it is around or above 2%. at thenantly, germans next ecb meeting and let's finish off with gold which was rising earlier but it is down a little bit. there is a flight to gold. it rose earlier and fell last for its besteading month since june. it is up by 3% since january.
gold fell by 12.4% in the last three months but even gold is down today. francine: now with less than three months until the first round of the french presidential election, the socialist nomination beat out manuel valls. with the latest from paris, one of the consequences of that victory for the wider race? huge challenge will be to unite the socialist party. that is going to be a difficult task, given a very hard line on the left of the party. he proposes some measures, including basic minimum wage of -- that is something that is really hard to believe for the more moderate part. the consequences boosting the makees of one who could
more votes from the moderate left wing. we can also see some europeans leaders from the parliament in joinels and in france to him over the next few days or even today. poll, the front runner was killed at 25%. very closely followed. the gap has never been so narrow. >> has republican candidate managed to get his back on -- campaign back on track following the controversy surrounding his wife? >> he had a very big rally in paris on sunday, a rally that was known before this conduct. remember, he is allegedly accused of having been hired as an assistant without actually
working for him in the parliament job. but she allegedly received half a million euros over the last two years. denied anys wrongdoing and yesterday during his rally, he defended his wife and she received a standing ovation. difficult to accuse but the damage has been done. his approval ratings have jumped after this, boosting the chances. francine: thank you so much in paris. running us now is dr. rainbow murray from queen mary university of london and a specialist in politics. professor, when you look at french politics, and you look at of the been becoming president, how must you put the mets?
-- put them at? >> she is likely going to win the first round but the decisive round is the second one. at that point i don't think she has enough popular support to command a majority of the electorate. i expect she will get defeated. >> isn't that what we said about donald trump? that he has a small base but a fervent base. >> it is very similar. that is insufficient in french politics because you need 50% of the votes and consistently opinion polls have said she can't manage more than a third of the vote which is very high but not sufficient to win an election. you can see forces to the left of her, which is most of the rest of the electorate will rally together. >> how much do we know about people who actually say they won't vote for her because they are ashamed and would actually vote? do we trust the polls? >> in france, it has been a
phenomenon for a long time. there is more opportunity to adjust the polls to take accounts of people. we have seen support going up in recent years but i still don't think they are underestimating her support. i don't think she has enough to win. francine: trevor, if she becomes president is that game over for the project? >> she is talking about euros adding to the euro and i was at a lunch meeting with the french bank last week and their economists said there is lots of 1% chances -- there is not a 1% chance but a 0% chance. but close to brexit, the polls were within a margin of error. that the refugee then america is doing is intended to destabilize europe. acrosse: is there a read
between the ban and the political consequences? do the french say we don't want a president like donald trump for our own country, but if the u.s. protect refugees and we should to. they like to assert their national identity. i think the greatest concern is what the policy will be across europe. that will be one of the points of the main candidates. >> what happens to france want now? this doesn't seem to be going away? allegations could damage his credibility. he wants to introduce austerity measures which are being thought now, askingle other people to accept cuts. it damages his credibility as an honest politician which helped him make his name so this is going to hurt him badly. francine: he doesn't have that much of a base but actually, he
is increasing in numbers. >> he is very inexperienced politically, which i would normally say is an advantage. when all of the experienced candidates are following like flies, he hasn't had an opportunity to is his point -- to disappoint the voters. whether people like what he sees when he finally puts it all, that remains to be seen. francine: how to the market see this? are the market steady? >> i think they are. my is locations with a concerned about the french election in the runoff. they will be reassured by the outcome. to do all of those things it will hold european equities back this year. the economy is recovering nicely . i think it will make people look elsewhere. >> but people don't actually vote on policies, do they? >> they do to some extent.
that is one of the areas where macron has a potential like barack obama did. people project what they want to see onto this unknown candidate and then once the policies are introduced they can decide whether they liked it. francine: from queen mary university of london and trevor from royal london asset management, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here's nejra cehic. to hiretarbucks plans 10,000 refugees over five years around the world after president trump immigration action. ceo howard schultz wrote that he had a heavy heart over trump's order and that the promise of the american dream is being called in to question. schultz wrote that starbucks is in contact with staff affected by the band and will do everything possible to help them navigate the confusion. toyota has lost its title as the top-selling carmaker in the world despite its main rival suffering the worst year in its history.
sold 10 point 2 million vehicles worldwide in 2016 while volkswagen managed 10.3 million. they ended the four-year reign following the fallout from the diesel a emissions scandal. a 112 billion yen in parent loss on the smoothie business, and equivalent of $1 billion. it will examine how it will affect its forecast. in medical web service and three to goldman sachs, the announcement comes two weeks after it was announced that the ceo of sony entertainment is stepping down after 30 years. considering up to $5 billion in investments in renewable energy firms, part of its plan to diversify away from oil dependence. several big lenders including hsbc, jpmorgan and credit suisse have been approaching target advice on deals.
saudi arabia wants to produce 30% of energy from a noble sources by 2030. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: let's get back to one of our top stories, president crackdown.ration analysts say major international companies say that it has threatened to strangle the freehold flow of workers and commerce. starbucks expressed concern. michael mckee joins us now from new york. what would the economic effect of stripping skilled workers from entering the u.s. the? >> that is the question. the economic impact of the trunk orders has not been all that great because these countries that are involved don't have a lot of refugees and economic impact in the world. but we have obtained at bloomberg news a draft of an order that trump is considering putting out that would restrict the flow of skilled immigrants into the united states on the
h-1b these of program. many of them work in the tech industry so it could be a very important move if he does that. the other aspect of this is the uncertainty that everything has brought forward. businesses have been waiting to see what donald trump might do and he does in to be following through on his campaign promises which could lead to a trade war with mexico. we don't know what he is going to do with china. this raises questions about how easy it is to do business under mr. trump going forward. francine: does he have the support of the gop? >> he has the support of some in the gop including the leadership. the move butised mitch mcconnell, the senate leader, was more circumspect saying it was a little too broad. not a lot of republicans spoke out. many democrats did but republicans largely kept quiet about the issue. francine: what does it mean for dollars?
we talked about the fed. is the dollar now kind of flat for the next couple of weeks until we figure out what the policies mean? >> i think we have a massive move into the dollar because of some of the trunk policies about stimulus and the promises for future stimulus but global growth is picking up. normal growth is picking up and the fed is ready to raise interest rates. money, thep printing bank of england has brexit to think about so the dollar is very crowded in trained -- in trade. you had a position unwinding post trump presidency on some concerns but we think the dollar will continue to strengthen. francine: when will we hear about policies in terms of spending, infrastructure and job creation? >> the administration has no drafted legislation at this point. the president is excited to make a speech to a joint session of congress at the end of february.
businesses get to see what he really wants to do. francine: michael mckee, thank you so much and 90 for joining us today. there has been a u.k. petition. a petition against donald trump visiting for a state visit and they now gained one million signatures. what this means is that it triggers parliament to have an open debate about whether donald trump should be invited to see the queen a couple of weeks. bloomberg surveillance continues in the next hour when tom keene joins me. out of new york, we focus on donald trump in the markets. we will focus on the dollar and be joined by michael mckee. this is bloomberg. ♪
allies. a corporate response, multinationals from starbucks expressed concern over the fallout. the coffee giant says his company will hire 10,000 refugees over five years. narrowing the field, france's socialist support has their nominee in a presidential primary vote. a move that could boost the chances of independent challengers. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am francine lacqua in london as tom keene is in new york. i would argue it is not the movement of the markets we need focus on what the latest geopolitics. tom: absolutely historic weekend. really, i would translate it worldwide. i was watching what was going on within the debate of the united kingdom over the actions in washington. what i would emphasize where viewers worldwide is it still unfolds this morning. by no means can we part --
compartmentalize it into the weekend. francine: absolutely. glowingmay was really after her visit with donald trump and it pushed her at home in the u.k. at a difficult position. let's get the bloomberg first word news. >> there was action on several fronts in response to president trump's decision to ban travel from seven predominantly muslim middle east countries. protesters demonstrated in a number of airports and federal judges have lost parts of the president's order. mitch mcconnell sounded skeptical about the administration's decision. >> i'm opposed to a religious test. the courts are going to determine whether this is too broad. >> it sounds to me like you are opposed to certain parts of this if we are in for detaining or holding back people who have helped americans? >> obviously i'm against that.
>> the white house has backed off on green cardholders from the countries included, they will be returning to the u.s.. police in quebec say six people were killed and another eight wounded after a shooting in a mosque. they opened fire on several dozen worshipers. canada's prime minister calls this a terrorist attack on muslims. they socialist party's presidential nomination. in the runoff with the former prime minister, the socialists are divided and given little chance of winning the election this spring. the imf is warning that current measures are not enough to keep the greek debt crisis from exploding. they mean to overall the bailout program -- overhaul the bailout program. greece estimates its public debt is 180% of gdp. 275% by 2060.it
global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: one screen data check. there isn't much need for a better check. the major news this morning is not that much news in the market that they changed. futures at negative six, that is all i got. mexico is still churning near 21. francine: i don't disagree but at the same time, we know the president looks at the markets so it is important to do a day to check. declining, this is the impact of what this band means. there has been a little bit of movement with the dollar raising earlier. that will show you another 113 points. we have some economic news. 108.2.e is tom: let's look how this is
happening. let's look at an economic chart that might explain some of the politics of the weekend in the last nine days. the animal spirit in america, this is a one decade moving average. my mouse is not waking up on a monday morning here as well. let me -- i'm not going to be able to do that. the blue line on the left is a decline in animal spirit from john f. kennedy. the blue line arrow on the right is a decline from the financial crisis and that lapse of economic growth at animal spirit is one of the major reasons we are dealing with president trump right now. he got elected on grim economic growth even back to 1963. francine: that brings us back to the financial crisis. a fairmont of people said it was not raped to what he is doing in terms of banning people from entering the country or whether that is a direct linkage to the economic growth.
when he bring you over to mike. this is the dow jones industrial average. the top 20,000. a dip and then it goes back up with the trumpet election. then it goes back up and we are seeing a record high. tom: we can do a weekend on politics in the united kingdom, worldwide, across europe and of course in the turmoil of america . our international economics and political editor michael mckee and i have followed this all weekend. you are mentioning before we went on the air that was a fuel the vietnam. >> i haven't seen spontaneous protests all over the country perhaps since that era. i remember when people took to the streets when -- in protest of their government. we will see of this has started some sort of movement that will komen eight some sort of action against the president. tom: everything i see over the weekend led by the wonderful
column by eliot cohen -- this is about secretary designate tillerson and general mattis. they need to reaffirm normalcy within the white house. have you seen anything that asgests how general mattis secretary of defense will react? >> i haven't seen anything like that but it is an interesting point because a lot of the social media comment has been about authoritarianism and things like that. what this may be is just incompetence and by that, i mean this is not a white house that is fully staffed. none of these agencies are fully staffed and they may have put out an executive order that was not properly vetted or fought through. we don't have an attorney general yet so the idea that we would go ahead with this without sending out to various agencies, maybe the reason we saw it. tom: noah feldman will join us on radio later today and that is right where professor feldman
went. francine: they want to know if there are checks and balances. the system is in place. so let's ask michael mckee. michael, this weekend, you had several federal district courts blocking the invitation. does it mean the legal system is working? >> it certainly does. and that is reassuring to a lot of people. it is not a concern that there is an executive branch takeover, i think. the concerns and to be whether or not you know what the executive branch is going to do. a lot of people in the business world were saying, let's take donald trump seriously but not literally. now they might have to take him literally, given that this comes after his decision to build the wall. ahead of any kind of decision about what to do with china. there. yuan and trade
there are questions on how it will affect business. francine: thank you so much. let's bring in our guest in london. with us, jonathan's enzi, director of the european political research. thank you for joining us. eric and jonathan, i don't know who wants to take the question first. what have we learned? over the last week about the way president trump will govern and how the checks and balances play? >> picking up on what michael was saying, is whether what we are getting at the moment from is a prettyuse worrying combination of arrogance and incompetence, acting without the consequences. mattis and others would come to play, but so far we've got steve bannon being put into the national security council in preference to the head of the
joint chiefs of staff and all of this sending a message out that this is very worrying times. >> i'm actually surprised that the markets have reacted more. >> we are waking up slowly to randomt that all this campaigne, incoherent rhetoric is becoming policy. in the markets wanted to believe that part of the good side, the reflation trade in your chart there, all of these economic appointees are fiscal hawks. congress doesn't seem to do what he wanted to do on the fiscal side and meanwhile, we are getting this machine gun spraying of crazy ideas. tom: help me on china, france and the study of the united kingdom. how will prime minister may great president trump when he comes to heathrow next time around? more caution than she did in
the u.s. when she was heralding the dawn of a new american awakening. that turned sour on her quickly. there is a petition going around which people have signed against the trumpet visit. that may have to be debated in parliament in advance which would be more embarrassing. with trump, everybody has e too.n off holland merkel, everybody is looking to her, but does she want to take up the burden? tom: i want to setup a day calendar for this week. mr. tillerson, this morning, today, has a former committee hearing in the senate and then sessions, the attorney general designate has the judiciary committee vote on tuesday so we are going to see a lot of fireworks with the senior
cabinet members. >> there is pressure on democrats to vote against the nominees but do each individual nominee -- does each individual nominee deserve a negative vote. would it be better to have somebody in place at these departments. that is the question democrats have to ask. tom: we will see more of mr. mckee on surveillance today. will be with us and usathan fannie will be with as well. coming up on bloomberg daybreak, the conversation with secretary summers. lawrence summers, the former treasury secretary. our checks and fractured balances. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: bloomberg surveillance from london and new york, francine and tom as always. let's get to bloomberg business flash. title as has lost its the world's best-selling automaker to volkswagen. the w sold a record 10 point 3 million vehicles and toyota sold about 10.2 million. it had been the best seller for the previous four years. booming sales in china helped to offset the emissions scandal. sony is taking a billion dollar write-down in its struggling movie business. a number of their recent films like the ghostbusters remake have underperformed. entertainment chief michael linden is stepping down. another computer glitch caused problems for delta airlines. a 2.5 million -- a 2.5 hour breakdown grounded flights and delta systems return to normal. a computer problem last summer caused else i hundred million
dollars in sales. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much. in this tumultuous week in america as michael mckee mentioned, protests are nationwide. reaction andobal nowhere is that more sensitive than the middle east. up to dobby has a view of the middle east. when you woke up this morning, what did you look to in the middle east? area geography and which of this debate did you turn to? many dimensions to this, as you know. first off, i should mention the on the ground banks from a lot of muslims in the middle east, who are concerned about whether or not they will be able to return to the u.s. or have family members leave the u.s. to come visit them, and then we have the business angle, the biggest airlines in the world based right here and they have been at the forefront of the
confusion that we have seen over the weekend in terms of -- tom: a little technical difficulty with tracy, we will try to get tracy signal back to upper dobby. erik nielsen, tracy goes there to the micro angst of emirates. you look at the macro angst. you have been seeing in our economic politics, it is the dampening on global growth. or is it really removed? >> i think it is too early to tell. the good news is global growth is picking up nicely. we have emerging markets, china is doing better. europe is going to report tomorrow numbers on par with american growth. global trade is picking up. for me, the story is really the global economic picture is very good. the question is whether trump destroys. francine: do we know the answer
to that? we have boj, we have boe, we have the fed. we have to take a long-term risk on recession and then you have economic policies where donald trump will do job creation. >> it is a really tough one. the first one is the fed. --y are set to height greats hike rates. but the one that would be most comfortable getting further behind the curve. they have two. for this year. i personally thought it was going to be three. maybe i am wrong. maybe it is only two. they certainly don't want to do something they have to take back. francine: what about economist credibility? what if we got it completely wrong? what if it is good for the american economy? >> the whole infrastructure
program, which people talk about, we don't know how that is going to come in. uncertainty.t of you have tax cuts, what they are going to have on the trickle-down effect, and then you have the room sitting there. it is china. they say trump is leaving china. he has dealt with mexico, as he would say, ignoring the fact that larry reynard consolations have 40% of imports and mexican exports are sourced from the u.s. so we are hitting u.s. suppliers. then you want a tally with putin , push off the pesky europeans of one side and at some point trump is going to have to deal with the chinese. they are setting up for this like no business. tom: we will continue with mr. fenn the and dr. neilson as well in london. coming up, angus blair from
ofh us is jonathan send the the war with terror. do we assume, and is there no turning back, that we have a mix with a candidate? weekend polls, which don't take account for the embarrassment they are suffering paine is prettyle solid so that should get her through. what is interesting is in the latest poll taken yesterday, this was before the socialists outcome which is good for macron , but macron is coming up. he may be a shooting star. he doesn't have a political machine behind him. he hasn't got parliamentary support. but you might see social
democrats, members of the socialists coming to his side and it is a question of whether he can keep the momentum going. francine: not having a political machine may make him more trustworthy. i don't know how many people look at the economy to vote anymore. >> i don't know either. i think the market, i think one concern is that le pen does not become president. it could be very possible. to market wants that not happen and the probably don't want the extreme left so whether macron,llion or investors would prefer macron. his background is interesting. not recorded mainstream.
until trump came around he would be seen as pretty extreme. but markets don't care about social policies. tom: let me go to both erik nielsen and jonathan fenby. here is france, per capita gdp growth adjusted for inflation. the boom out of world war ii, the big kink in 1974 and then a sustained success for france. nielsen, it stops with a vengeance in the financial crisis. and it hasn't come back. here is the united states. erik nielsen, do you have any confidence they can establish growth policies to begin to migrate back to the united states level? >> if you took that chart and looked at the median income you would see that france has outperformed america over the last 10 years. it is the average that goes this way because of income distribution. ,f you look at the 90% poorest
if you take out the top 10, france is looking like the u.s.. if you bring it down per capita and in hours worked, france looks fine. >> thank you so much. we will be back with erik .ielsen coming up on bloomberg daybreak: americas, a conversation with the former u.s. treasury secretary. larry summers. look for that at 7:30 a.m. we had an explosive conversation with dr. summers in that ho -- in davos. ♪
taylor: protesters staged demonstrations at several airports over president trump's nominally middle east countries. judges have blocked part of the judge's orders. buffettes and warren spoke about the importance of immigration. was built byry immigrants. you can take them from any country you want. they have come here and found something that unleashed the potential of the place -- the place i love did not. taylor: you can watch that interview on charlie rose at 6:00 and 10:00 p.m. eastern on bloomberg tv. two people have been arrested after gunmen shot up a mosque in quebec. six people were killed and another eight wounded. act oftrudeau called the terrorism aimed at muslim.
in germany, chesler angela bid ---- chesler angela the rival socialist democrats have reemerged with the challenger. merkel still has a substantial lead. british opposition leader germany corbyn is defending his decision to force labour party lawmakers to vote. he says any members of his leadership team who refuse will be expected to resign. two members have ready quit in protest over his order. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you. what we want to do right now is go inside the debate of the weekend. we could do that with martin schenker. you and i have never seen a
weekend like last weekend. if i wander out here with "the new york times," we get the placement, the drum about the president and migrants in the heartbreaking picture right here -- the drama about the president and migrants in the heartbreaking pictures right here. the real story. it was stunning to see what the white house and mr. bannon has done with the national security council. they threw the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff off the council unless they go to the principals committee and he gets invited. what does that signal to the legislative branch of the united states of america? >> is signals that steve bannon is probably the most important person in that white house after donald trump. he is going to join that counsel. he is one of the architects of donald trump's victory. onis solidifying his power the intelligence side.
tom: when we see this, and we know the date calendar, secretary tillerson wondering and today and more votes, but critically, the attorney general on tuesday with the vote of the judiciary committee some corn, how do you expect the legislature, the majority republicans, to respond to jeff sessions? >> there is still some questions about him and the immigration orders this weekend will provide another line of questioning, but he will get confirmed. i don't think there's any question that mr. sessions will become the next attorney general. but not without a large amount of contentious debate. district several courts block the implementation of this executive order over the weekend. does it mean the legal systems and constitutional defenses work in the united states? >> we have to be very clear. the judges stayed any part of the order that would force people who have legal status to
leave, to be put back on planes. the overall legality of the trump immigration order has still been maintained by these judges pending a hearing. the bulk of his orders remains in place. francine: right, but in terms of checks and balances, do you think they are working in the united states or is it too soon to tell? commentators say mrs. exactly how the legal system should work. in fact, did work to maintain the status of those people who had legal status in this country. i think generally it is working as it is supposed to work, but it will play out in the days and weeks ahead. tom: i put out on twitter my concern and affection for the secretary of defense general mattis. in theohen followed up atlantic. that will be my morning must-read. what does general mattis do given president bannon's
efforts? >> well, he is a very independent thinker. according to donald trump he wants to hear dissent from within his inner circle. i think you will hear from him when he he thinks something's going wrong. by the way, i do think the narrative could change quickly. reports that the supreme court nomination could be moved up as soon as today, which would completely change the narrative about immigration to the supreme court. so watch for that. francine: thank you for that insight, martin schenker. let's get more from fawaz gerges . also still with us is erik nielsen. professor, you're the author of "isis: the history." when you look at what a travel ban could do, does it actually push more people into extreme
thinking because they feel left out, or can we not do the correlation? >> any expert on the middle east or isis would tell you the worst thing you can do is to basically provide isis and al qaeda with ideological munition, motivation, and inspiration. the ban against southern countries and iraqi refugees basically is ineffective. it will do more damage than good. it will hardly basically limit the damage any kind of attacks against the united states. it is counterproductive because it plays into the narrative al qaeda and isis. it is foolishly a rational. it alienates public opinion. you do not lump more than one billion muslims with islamic radicalism. it deepens anti-american sentiments in the muslim world if you tell me, what does the ban do? i would say it provides a forive propaganda boost
isis and al qaeda. it plays into their hands. ,t is sweet music to extremists not just in the middle east, but the greater muslim world. francine: will be white house understand this? >> i don't think so. i do not have to be expert to tell donald trump this is a rational, that it is productive -- irrational, that it is counterproductive. we need understand this particular initiative on the part of donald trump is really donald trump is blinded by ideology. this is a political decision. plays into his hard-core narrative. but if you look at what is happening in the muslim world, yet anger and rage. and more and more are buying into al qaeda and isis narratives. this is a war against islam and muslims. this is not a war between islam and the west. this is a war with it islam, the fight with direct in syria. it is a war within islam. what donald trump is trying to
do is shift the narrative. tom: professor, i want to ask a sensitive question and i say this with great respect for the literature onthe islam. is donald trump running what the middle east and the islamic world would perceive as a new crusade? is there a change within the rhetoric -- tinge within the rhetoric that presidential is galloping off to fight the fourth, fifth, or sixth crusade? >> what i fear the most is now you have two parallel their lives happening in the world, in the islamic world and the western world. on the one hand, you have a or al group called isis qaeda. they say there is a clash of civilization between islam and the west. america, which basically the leader of the free world. now you have donald trump who is basically trafficking in a
similar clash. the clash is a clash of civilization. ins is not about a fringe the muslim world. this is a war between islam and the west. think of what donald trump has said. islam hate us all, talking about americans, all of us. this is a clash of civilization. what i fear the most is that donald trump is shifting the debate from being what is happening in iraq and afghanistan -- this is a war athin islam -- into being clash between islam and the west, and that is why i say theld trump is playing into narrative of al qaeda and isis. tom: professor, what we react to within the united states, frankly, and the collegial west, is mr. trudeau stepped up this week it in candid and said, our doors are open to refugees. i am sure he was awakened last night with the killings in quebec. is isis in any way diminished or
should mr. trudeau and all of us expect these isolated incidents like quebec? >> i think it is not surprising, tom. i mean, these incidents have become part of our life, whether you're talking about is stumble florida, or quebec, california. there is a real division now, a real cleavage. you have fringe elements who subscribe to this particular clash of civilization between the groups. this is the united states of america. this is not the banana republic. when the united states basically traffics in a clash of civilization narrative -- in the muslim world, and i know a bit about the arab and muslim world, it is seen as a muslim ban.
it alienates muslim public opinion. would donald trump, the president of the united states, traffics in such a narrative, it undermines the idea of america as a moral force. and also provide an, not just for al qaeda and isis may provide ammunition to the far right group in the heart of europe where i am. in britain, germany, france, and other countries. that is why it is very dangerous. tom: let me ask you a question. should president trump speak to parliament, should president trump be given the privilege of speaking at westminster hall, 1080space echoes back to -- 1000 a.d.? >> i say donald trump does not speak for the united states of america. donald trump does not speak for the 340 million americans. there is a real struggle in the u.s.
it is wonderful to cb debate, the struggle that is shaping in the united states, and the american media defending american values. the worst thing we can do is to give a platform for this kind of rhetoric. i am saddened by the fact theresa may has not stood up in the same way that angela merkel in germany and the french president and the canadian president -- this is not a clash with islam and the west. it is a clash within. there is a real struggle. i am talking as an american. there's a clash within america about the value we subscribe to, the progressive, humanist values donald trump does not speak for me or millions of americans. tom: we will come back. francine has tons of questions for our guests. coming up on bloomberg radio, a wonderful set of guests.
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." may invest up to $5 billion in renewable energy firms. that is according to those with knowledge of the matter. the companies try to diversify from oil production in was to bring foreign expertise in renewable energy into saudi arabia. starbucks has it will hire a thousand refugees around the world in the next five years. the ceo writes on a couple's
website that he has a heavy heart over president trump's immigration order. website that he has a heavy heart over president trump's immigration order. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you. other executives from big employers including ge, google, and microsoft. but get more on this. matthew campbell wrote a great piece, a senior correspondent here in london. he wrote a piece that went through the various industries that were pushing back against the ban and others that did not. what did you find out? silicon valley were the most vocal. >> what we saw over the weekend was a very immediate and very forceful response using come in some cases, what i would think you would call rather on parliamentary language from big silicon valley chief executives, the google, netflix, apple, facebook of the world. very speaking early and often as what they see as an order that
is antithetical to their values and those of the united states. what we have not seen so much so far is a strong response from other industries, whether that is retail, manufacturing, finance -- those companies are tending to stay out a little bit with a few exceptions. starbucks being one. we heard about them just a moment ago. chief executives are being faced with a very interesting dilemma of do you speak out and risk attracting the ire of donald trump or du stay silent and perhaps attract the ire of employers and activists? valley,for silicon there are two considerations. one is practical and one is emotional. tech companies are desperate for talent. they need skilled engineers, computer scientists. any tech company will say that are simply not enough in the u.s. workforce for their expansion needs. reason is silicon
valley is an industry that is run by immigrants to a very large extent. the founder of google, born in moscow. the chief executive of microsoft born in india. steve jobs the founder of apple, born the son of a syrian immigrant. there are thousands and thousands of stories like these all over silicon valley. these are individuals who feel this on a more visceral level than her counterparts at say ge. francine: when you look at the earnings, how much -- we were coming from the basis of the market has been largely touring the risks out there -- ignoring the risks out there. there's a shortage of challenge -- do they get hit? troublel be in because of the policies in place? >> it is difficult. i share their view, it is a very difficult dilemma.
do you speak up for your employees maybe your customers or do you just sort of toe the line? i find it disappointing that so many people have kept quiet. i would assume investors in the company are -- you start to get worried about the overall picture. tom: fellows, help me here with all that we have seen this weekend. we're focused on the middle east and the islamic experience. oh, yeah, there is israel. what would you presume we should see or adapt or adjust to, as i believe we migrate the capital to jerusalem? what will be the outcome of those actions? >> first of all, tom, benjamin netanyahu was very delighted with the link the wall on the mexican-american borders. donald trump and benjamin netanyahu see i die.
-- see eye to eye. they shouldsaying all move to jerusalem. my take on it, tom, and i know a bit about how significant, how -- i think this could provide the start for a bigger fight in the middle east. we have multiple fires. we have a big fire in syria, iraq, libya, yemen. if you move the embassy into thesalem without resolving conflict, this could provide the next biggest fire in the middle east. these are not my words. john kerry in one of his speeches in paris said, this is a recipe for a huge explosion. it is very sensitive. it is very toxic. it seems to me that donald trump has slowed down a bit in the past two weeks since he is talking about moving the embassy. but we need to keep our eyes on this particular front.
tom: this has been wonderful. , thank you.rges matt campbell, thank you as well with bloomberg news. coming up, within all we are covering this morning on our politics, yes, economics and markets, we will synthesize particular relationship with president trump with mr. putin. join us with will columbia university on our foreign relations. jeffrey sachs the prosperity of america. this is bloomberg. ♪
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom, we talked quite a lot about the u.s., talked a little bit about reflation expectations. a huge week for banks across the globe. jobs they on friday. we have the fed. we're back with erik nielsen. i guess the million dollar question the markets want to know, when we actually hear funding questions, when we talk about economic policies coming from president trump. until we do have that assurance that he will deliver on the policies that he promised during
his campaign, what does the dollar do? >> it looks like the original rally is coming to an end. we think there's a very good chance it has peaked because people stand get more worried about his policies and there is a chance that the fed may not go quite as fast, the uncertainty about economic policies. there is another school of thought which says a sort of safe haven, the world becomes does she go back to the u.s. treasury and dollars. i have a problem with that because for the first time in my life, the center of uncertainty is washington. but i don't know. francine: what does that mean? does it mean treasuries move on the back of it? >> exactly. or at least -- if we get into this nasty scenario for the world, doesn't become the safe haven. if you go to japan or switzerland instead, or
scandinavia and other places, they can absorb it. this environment now with the uncertainty about donald trump, i think there's a very big probability that we have seen the peak of the dollar and you see the dollar -- tom: interesting. there'd nelson, thank you so much with unicredit on this tumultuous monday morning. coming up, on the markets. quiet right now. we go toget, washington and new york as we look at our political economics. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
the continued fallout from an historic weekend. markets this morning show little reaction, but will business invest given trump uncertainty? muslims on islam and president trump's crusade this hour from cairo, angus blair. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live from our world had court is in new york, i'm tom keene. with me and london, francine lacqua. i spent as much time looking at the london news flow as the washington news flow. will the prime minister greet the president anytime in the near future? >> i think it is a little of an embarrassment for theresa may because she is trying to portray herself as very open, open to trade. and parliament questioning whether she should have been that warm or friendly. the counterargument is, he has fairly ased, elected
they president of united states, and it is right for theresa may to do business with the president. tom: well said. let's get to the news flow. here's taylor riggs. taylor: protesters staged demonstrations at several airports in the u.s. over president trump's decision to ban travel to the u.s. from seven predominantly muslim middle east countries. meanwhile, two federal judges have blocked part of the president's order and muslim militant groups say the president's move validates our claim u.s. is at war with islam. white house adviser kellyanne conway denies that. countries -- what about the 46 majority muslim countries that are not included? it totally undercuts this nonsense that this is a muslim ban. this is a ban on travel from countries tried to prevent terrorist in this country from countries that have a recent history of training and exporting and harboring terrorists. taylor: the ministry has revised the order.
green card holders will not be stopped from entering u.s. six people were injured -- six people were killed and eight others injured at a mosque. two suspects have been arrested. canada's prime minister calls the shooting a terrorist attack on muslims. france, the presidential nomination. taking 59% of the vote. the socialist are divided and given little chance of winning the election this spring. the imf is warning that current measures are not enough to keep the greek debt crisis from exploding. in a draft report, the imf needs to overhaul its bailout program to ease the load on greece. greece estimates its public debt is about 180% of gdp. the imf estimate it will hit 275% by 2016. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you. quite markets. turkish lira is stronger. a little angst this morning. oil churning un-american oil. francine: quickly, this is what a lot of the picture is looking at. i want to put european bonds. they phil onside's inflation was quickening in germany. equities retreating on the back of donald trump -- really, what the ecb could or could not do. the dollar weakening earlier because of the order from the president halting some immigration that reverberated around the world. after little bit back up it was below $53. tom: breaking news. michael mayo has been very get itl about citigroup going, get it going, get it going. they exit one of their mortgage business is this morning. they will do that by the end of
2018. all in all coming out a big till, but there it is, citigroup with action this morning. this is a chart that says, why are we here? -- 10nure moving average year moving average. the decline from 1963 of where we are now. this is the decline in our nominal gdp since the beginning of the crisis. francine, on an economic races, this ram explains so much for so much of america that allowed for president trump. francine: it does. let me bring you over to what we see in the dow jones. this is how we look at political risk. it is clear political shocks so far have been ignored by the dow jones. the first one is brexit. it dips lower and goes back up. this is the election of donald trump. many said it would be a concerted the markets. not so. the markets really rallying on the back of donald trump's election. above 20,000.
tom: very good. let us move forward and try to inform you on the cacophony of stories this weekend. our chief washington correspondent has been working nonstop through the weekend. in michael mckee, our economics editor joining me on our desk in new york. tillerson today, sessions tomorrow. how will these officers react to the ad hoc and narrow basis of the trump-been in white house? >> republican aides tell me that they are anticipating a tepid at best support for the executive orders that we saw over the weekend. i think you can anticipate in terms of confirmation hearings that tillerson and sessions, they are going to be approved. and they are anticipated to get confirmed simply because despite all of the plethora of negative therenes, the math is not
for democrats to stop them. tom coburn the civics is there. thanks to many followers on twitter who brought this to my kitchen, here is the white house website over 24 hours. something is missing in the new interpretation of the trump white house. i believe you and i learned in civics, the judicial ranch matters? >> you could probably make the case that donald trump does that like the judicial branch. i suspect this gets to the rushed and hurried nature of what they've been traded or the white house against your point about tillerson and sessions not being in office. a lot of tick-tocks and very's newspapers about how this order came about. the immigration order. it doesn't it was not vetted are 1 -- or run through your the department of homeland security secretary mr. kelly until it was being signed. not autocracy, but incompetence or a rush to get things out may
have caused this problem. francine: in terms of the executive order, is the gop firmly behind the president on this? speaking outt forcefully, but i can say behind the scenes, there is concern for what this means for midterms as well as what this means in terms of trying to pass more of president trump's legislative agenda with a capital is using on this, how it impacts tax or form, to regulatory policy, health care policy -- all of that could be influenced by this. of theoday on the steps capitalized 6:00 p.m., virtually every single democrat in both the senate and the house are going to be on the steps of the capital speaking out against this policy. the images i think are going to be forceful was. francine: who does the president listen to? if the margaret van confused -- margaret van, who does the
president turn to? >> i think you'll have to turn to his inner circle. over the last couple of days, there is a report that largely went unnoticed and that was steve bannon and jared kushner were elevated to national security circles ahead of some other national security folks. i think that is a sign, the influence that is growing for people like steve bannon as well as jared kushner. francine: michael, what is the one thing we need to figure out, to understand when the president will actually talk about the economy? are these all distractions? when will his plans come into place? >> during his campaign, a lot of people said the media was taking trump literally and not seriously. the voters were taking them seriously, but not literally. it look like the media may have
been corrected this case because he is doing everything he said he would do. the white house would argue they're talking about the economy. they were talking about it last week with mexico. and they continue to move --ward uneconomic proposals on economic proposals. there is a draft of an order that would rejigger the visa program that would have a major impact on tech companies. we do not know what he's going to do about china and whether or them awill end up naming currency manipulator. deal with the may cannot do is push congress to move faster on thegs like tax reform -- only make cannot do is push congress to move faster on things like tax reform. they just have a rough outline. look for that maybe later this year. it will get tougher and tougher if people cannot count on exactly what they think donald trump is going to do. am: i want to bring up morning must-read. my number one article for the weekend, elliott: just justutely -- elliott cohen
absolutely killed it. she'll be diplomacy. -- gop diplomacy. the presidents disregard for either secretary that is or to listen -- or tillerson in favor of advisors tells you all you need to know about who is really a charge. the president, and one spectacular we come has a ready shown himself one of the worst of our presidents. what will you look for from the secretary of defense this week, kevin? >> whether or not he has influence in the white house. because just hours before these executive orders were made public on friday, president trump said publicly on the issue of torture, for example, he would rely on general mattis who took a different approach on torture than he does. then hours later, these executive orders come out and we learn about trump -- mr. trump being the one who is really in
charge in terms of pushing this forward. what to look for later today there is going to be a small business leaders meeting at the white house. up with hisines economic policy. but also, just how much influence does his cabinet members have on his policy agenda? francine: thank you so much. coming up, the conversation with former u.s. treasury secretary lawrence summers. 30k for that at seven gloves -- look for that at 7:30 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg ♪
recent films have underperformed at the box office. two weeks ago, sony said entertainment chief michael lynton is stepping down. another computer glitch caused problems for delta airlines. 2.5 hour computer breakdown led to see the airline ground about 170 flights. more flights will probably be canceled while systems returned to normal. the computer problem last summer cost of the $100 million in sales. that sure bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you. it is now a turn to digress from our economic policy of the moment. would love to do that with julian emanuel of ubs. he's the executive director of u.s. equities and derivatives. we stated this morning with the minimal market reaction to this politics. do you present at some point markets do react? >> they will.
there is no question about it. the first thing we are finding out is democracy is a messy process. there is no question there. these are sort of seems we are seeing that we have not seen since the 1960's and the 1970's. for markets, the whole concept of this uncertainty is just something that at some point is going to hit. tom: is the catalyst for it, the filtration of debates over nine thatmics, non-finance migrate over to the assumptions of fiscal stimulus over to infrastructure over to tax reform? do you make that linkage? >> that is the crux. if you look at how the market has responded the past couple of months, your pricing in a degree of tax reform that, as we're finding out, may be more challenging to implement as well as infrastructure, both going to not without controversy and a
degree of battle. francine: just to understand this correctly, you think there is a correction coming in terms of the markets a president trump does not deliver on tax reform or does not focus on economic policy? >> there are a number of reasons to catalyze a correction. the primary being that we have had a lot of good news built-in, not only on the policy front, but also on an earnings front. if you look at expectations for 2017, bottoms up expects earnings growth in excess of 12%, which really does include a light of stimulus -- a lot of stimulus. to us, it represents gdp closer to 3% rather than the 2.4% we're looking at. but also, this entire benefit from tax, which again, as we're hearing, is a late 2017 if not early 2018 occurrence.
francine: right, but what if he delivers? if it is not priced in or partly priced in, he could also deliver and go beyond what he has promised if it works. >> there is that possibility. we have said that is sort of where the animal spirits, which we are seeing manifest themselves in consumer confidence, and ceo confidence, small business optimism off the charts -- that is how you can overshoot in market and it is definitely possible. the one thing that we do think is when you look at donald trump and you look at the setup in 2017, the middle of the distribution curve does not really exist anymore. it is right where we are now or potential for left tail. tom: i want to bring up a chart. this is the malaise banner. julian emanuel, here we are with the vietnam malaise. maybe we thought it would be a boom in the 1960's. up we go.
whatever it was, do you just assume little turmoil ends up malaise? >> not necessarily. there are times of progress. you think back to the 1980's, there was a lot of discourse when ronald reagan first took over. society was not settled. ultimately, proved the starting ground of the greatest market of all time. tom: is your business going to be slower because of this? >> no. i think of some point people are going to have to make up their mind in terms of what they want to do in the capital markets are still reasonably robust. francine: julian emanuel thank you so much. for all of our bloomberg users, andcan follow us on tv go you can follow all of our reaction, market reaction, some of our graphics. you can tell us what you think about the show and give us ideas
tom: the secretary designate for state, mr. tillerson, will be quite visible today and mr. sessions tomorrow the judiciary committee. that barely describes the to mold of a washington this monday morning. good morning, i'm tom keene in new york. francine lacqua in london. in all of the reading this elliott:i featured
this weekend. i knew that noah feldman would deliver. he is one of the most thoughtful readers and writers of our constitutional law, professor feldman at harvard. rule of law one, trump's immigration been zero. tom: that is football talk for where we are in this cycle. is there any interpretation of this from london that you have seen over the weekend that the white house just worked outside the normal process that you work in? francine: i think our global audience is trying to figure out
exactly how your president will work with the institutions. wasought noah's piece outstanding because he lays out in civil terms the legal systems constitutional defense about how they will work with president trump. i guess it all goes back to recognition and whether president trump will continue to listen to a lot of these constitutional defenses. it is called checks and balances. this was -- and of the talk we heard in the corridors of davos, i think we need to give it a couple of weeks to see how it plays out. tom: with us is julian emanuel of ubs. i was a just the vigilantes -- suggest the vigilantes do not know the phrase "given a few weeks." wise and their more tumult in the market? >> basically, people made the calculations that the economy would improve post the trump election, which certainly was a surprise to a lot of people in early november. and now we're just waiting to
see what happens. we do not have any proof yet that high twos in terms of gdp and earnings growth, which we have not had for two years, and it is very important that this resumption of earnings growth is a major psychological change, so we're just waiting to see proof that is going to come in in the markets are sort of in the wait and see mode. francine: talk to me about animal spirits. myant to bring you back to dow jones industrial chart. if you see the two red circles, the first one is brexit. this is the election of donald trump. how do you spur animal spirits in the united states so that ceos start investing and spending again so that the dow jones does not correct? >> actually, the problem. back tackle he is that you may be -- paradoxically is that you may be spring animal spirits perhaps too strong at this
point. if you look at the last eight years, the bull market has climbed a wall. the wall of worry that is typical on the part of both investors and ceos. now you have this spike in confidence where it is all based on perspective stimulus, purpose -- perspective tax policy and itnings growth that is doesn't materialize, that is when we have seen corrections in the past. this high,t rates there is a danger. tom: we will come back with julian emanuel. the fallout of the white house in the middle east. angus blair. this is bloomberg. ♪
german bonds. there has been a new imf report. greece is still trying to ask for a payout from the imf. that means on the back of that, the spread between the 10-year bund have german exploded. tom: making a picture of some of the expert fears scuff that we do. -- of the obscure stuff that we do. this is all good news for greece, a better greece, narrower spread. you roll up over two days. it is something to watch this week. francine: i am looking at your bloomberg users, and i am looking at the greek 10-year. it is quite significant. 7.44. compare that to a euro. let's get to taylor riggs. protesters staged
demonstrations at several airports over president's trump that over president trump has decision to ban refugees coming in from predominantly muslim countries. columbiant at university, warren buffett and bill gates spoke about the importance of immigration. been builtntry has by immigrants, and you can take them from any country you want, and they have unleashed the potential from a place they came from that did not. more ofyou can watch the interview with bill gates and warren buffett tonight on "charlie rose." chancellor merkel's bid for a fourth term took shape over the weekend. she wants support from key allies in bavaria. the rival social democrats have emerged with a reenergized
challenger, martin schulz. polls show that merkel has a substantial lead. jeremy corbyn is defending his did the ashes decision for triggering brexit. he tells any member of his if theyip team that refuse they will be expected to resign. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more i am taylorntries, riggs. this is bloomberg. tom? francine? francine: thank you so much. let's go back to top stories of the global follow-up from -- the global fallout from trump's travel ban. still with us in new york, julian emanuel of ubs. thank you so much for joining us. when you listen to president trump's words, he has been saying it over and over again. this is not about religion, it is about terror and keeping our country safe. how is it interpreted in the
all,e east? >> first of with kind of disbelief, francine, and from my own perspective, it is unusual, given the background of basically calling a country under suspicion. it is interesting. the general commentary coming , saying thatrs this is really quite bad. there has been no statement from the regional leaders, which i find in no way surprising because they do not want to upset america. they are leaving it to the new zealots to fire away at criticizing the policy. francine: at this point, the leaders in the region where you are in the middle east, are you expecting them to give the white house time to temper their statements? : you have to look at
the countries involved. basically the leaders would either be critical of america anyway. if this policy was to be egypted to, for example, -- and we heard yesterday that might be the case -- the regional temper on this, the regional view would change dramatically. there would be a lot more reaction on the streets from leaders. francine: donald trump spoke to leaders of -- does he need to toe sure that their allies -- they are allies to combat the world against terror? angus: it seems to be the transcript, much of it was talking about iran, not the policy of stopping people going into america. angus, good morning. it is 1400 miles from cairo to khartoum.
what will be the impact on their domestic economies? i understand the stereotypes that america has of the sudan, of yemen. help us with that. what does it really mean on the ground in yemen in sudan, and for that matter, in damascus? much: it is not so directly in terms of damascus or yemen, it is for people who are generally outside. refugees who had perhaps hoped to go to america for a new life, that hope has been dashed. there is also damage to the brand america in the region. this whole region has been looking at -- as a matter of fact, the world -- in general --
people have been looking to america to set international standards, for good and sometimes for bad. but basically they are looking for them to stand up to good order globally, and for the will of law. and to know those values in the region, people have been looking to america to set the standards by, they have been diminished. i see it in britain, too. tom: the domestic politics for the president of egypt is extraordinary right now. is mr. trump, in his narrow group at the white house, mr. bannon and others, are they good controversial -- angus: with president trump, it is clear that there seems to be a good relationship, which is , that there are good
relations in terms of discussion. behind the scenes, i would be concerned because they could upset very easily that , iftionship by undertaking suddenly egyptian's were to be added to the list of people to be reviewed. now who isone right originally syrian, annex minister who has been offered the position in the -- an x minister who has been offered a position in the world bank, a good guy who has been looking after the rebuilding of syria. a lot of good people could be impacted by this. but in terms of egypt directly and the region, there is nothing direct yet. it is all about perception, belief, trust. it is about hope and faith in what america is that will in affectve -- it will tourism, i expect. and, as i said, the indirect
cost of the diminution of brand usa. francine: does the trade war become more likely, or actually , if heoo far-fetched follows through with calling china a currency manipulator? fact is, this is part of the uncertainty gripping markets and people around the world. you are potentially re-drawing the geopolitical strata of the post-world war ii world. so by that token, there is going to be miscommunication. there is going to be items of uncertainty amongst leaders globally. that always has the potential for unintended consequences. francine: we will get back to those unintended consequences. angus blair, thank you. coming up on wednesday, a immelt,tion with jeff
francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the "bloomberg business flash." taylor: citigroup is getting out of the mortgage servicing business. they have reached an agreement to sell the servicing rights on loans with $97 billion of outstanding balances. the buyer is new residential mortgage. terms of the deal were not disclosed. focus on loan
origination. starbuck says it will hire 10,000 refugees from around the world in the next five years. ceo howard schultz writes on the company website that he has a heavy heart over president trump's immigration order. he also hopes that ceo kevin johnson will communicate with workers more frequently. tom: let's look at the chart that shows a sweet pattern for julian emanuel of ubs. this is the vix. a legitimate day right here and right here, a 10-hour day. l dozed off.e emanue how boring is that? julian: there is never a dull moment in this world of washington, 2017. for the equity markets, part of the story is that stocks are moving their own ways. it is something called correlation. it has sunk to lowe's, which is why the vix is so low.
the last time it was this low, it was not until august of 2015. tom: a great chart that we all take for granted -- the asymmetric nature of this chart, i would suggest you see that with the gloom. can you really catch a falling knife in the dark going the other way? julian: if you look at the last several years, the whole idea has been to exercise patience when the markets become stretched, when sentiment becomes too optimistic, because you have had massive sentiment , which have provided great buying opportunities. we think that pattern will repeat itself in 2017. francine: where do you see the most volatility playing out? i would argue that it is insurance is. look at the pound. -- i would argue that it is in
currencies. look at the pound. julian: no question that the across therkets are tension right now. we think the dollar is in the process of making medium-term -- if you look at it aside from the fact that president trump has said overtly that he would like a weaker dollar, we also look at interest rate differentials between the u.s. and europe, which are at their wides since german reunification, as well as fed policy. it is not entirely the case that the dollar strengthened when the fed tighten. a history, the dollar has had tendency to sell off during periods of tightening. francine: that will make president trump's job a little easier, right? hi, this isr is too counterproductive from what he would want to achieve. julian: that's right.
that is thate of we wait with bated breath to see how we are going to think about china in terms of their currency. tom: i have a miserable year, i am behind on my clients watching. how do you get again? it is january, we are not in a panic like we would be in october or november. julian: stay with financials. financials will continue working in this higher interest rate environment. the fact that if anything -- tom: you believe in trump reflation? julian: not fully. financials work if rates stay high. they do not need infrastructure to work. they need deregulation or less regulation, and that is psychological because the bearish sentiment on financials is enormous. the other thing that we like are -- health care
and software in the technology group, both have started acting well as the new year started. tom: julian emanuel with us. we will continue our discussion. coming up, a conversation with ian bremmer of eurasia group. a wonderful time to talk about an historic weekend. this is bloomberg. ian bremmer, next. ♪
tom: foreign exchange on a monday morning. to 21, down to2 20.1. there is canada, churning. they got to the all-star game, the boring nhl are star game -- the boring nhl all-star game. sorry, francine, i failed with the forex report. francine: you do not fail. expect more volatility, which is what julian emanuel just told us. coming up shortly, "bloomberg daybreak: americas."
david, i know your guest is already spoken about nationalist measures and what impact it will have. david: you are all over it. larry summers just tweeted out nearly half of the s&p 500 revenue is earned abroad and may be heard by -- and may be hurt by new internationalist measures. we will have him on at 7:30 eastern time. he has been outspoken in the past about the business community under reacting to the trump administration. we will re-ask -- we will ask him if this is a rubicon that has been crossed between the president and the ceo's of the country. francine: david westin with "bloomberg daybreak: americas." ian bremmer is the president of eurasia group and joins us now on the phone. he is one of the most outspoken -- i do not know if it is
critics, but he is very knowledgeable about foreign policy. what does a travel ban do on animal spirits in the u.s.? i don't think it will have a negative effect on the way people think about the u.s. market. you have a number of ceo's, particularly in the tech community, that have been posing it, but it is much more fundamental about whatever -- about what a republican congress and president can do to make the u.s. attractive on taxes and on infrastructure builds and the rest. much more is the question, what is the impact outside the united states on america's relationships globally. learn?e: so what did you did you learn about the way that donald trump will govern at the white house, or did you learn more about the constitutional defenses in the way that the
american rule of law works? ian: i think we have learned more about the way he is going to govern. this entire fan was put -- this entire ban was put in place with a small number of advisors. the head of homeland security was not aware of the details until it was rolled out to the public. implementation has been spotty. it has been differentiated in different cities. a lot of people do not know what the rules are. that has been true around green cardholders who are or are not included in the van. who are or been -- are not included in the ban. the judges have put a stay on the order, and the homeland security response has been one of the most unusual i have ever read. the question is going to be, as you have the cabinet filled out, are they going to play a traditional role as one would
expect, or will this be primarily on foreign-policy issues driven by a smaller group who do not have foreign-policy experience? that was a big problem for obama when he first came in, with a very strong cabinet. but people around him, like valerie jarrett, did not trust the establishment and frequently make mistakes -- intricately made mistakes. obama was at least analytic, so he wanted to educate himself. trump, you have the group around him that has no experience, but trump his health -- but trump himself has no background in with these policies are going to be. francine: the national security stephen bannon. what does that mean? ian: the role is not meant to be purely about informally advising vis the a conduit vis a
secretary of state, like condoleezza rice was doing when she was there for the bush administration, but formulating and driving the trump administration view on the world. in that regard, it is extremely unorthodox to have been in in that -- to have stephen bannon in that position. it is not surprising in the context of the trump campaign. trump's promises and grandiosity wisdomside conventional -- we are seeing that on virtually every issue around governance. he intends to actually govern this way. the most important implication of van and being in that role is that the united states is going to be much more proactive in supporting nationalism across europe.tal this will matter for the french elections. tom: help me with what i have
seen in the last 12 hours. this is the white house gov site. they have dropped the judicial branch. i don't know if you are aware of this, but they eliminated the judicial branch. i want to know what americans should expect from the secretary of defense and the secretary of state designate in the next 48 hours. they have to walk in the office as the adults in the room. how should they respond? ian: i think they are going to have to figure it out as everyone else does. they are adults, and i am certain that if they are not listened to, and if they feel like their promises are rolling them over, they are going to leave. that is true for the values of most of the individuals that we are well aware of in policy. they will have to understand how much they should say publicly and how much they should say privately. we are going to find out very
quickly, as tillerson and mattis come into their rules. if they are not listened to, there will be leaks all over the place among their advisors. you will see that this is a very dysfunctional cabinet. or we will see some serious brakes on trump's policies. i think one of those two things will happen within the next week. ian bremmer, thank you. julian emanuel will continue with us on bloomberg radio. in the next hour, nicholas burns will join us. and also, noah feldman with us as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
ban. corporate condemnation, multinationals including microsoft, google, and nike concerned about the consequences for business. and global equities shrank ahead of a week from the central bank decision. a warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." a weekend of news flow is dominated by the president's travel ban. looking at futures, we are negative, but only by about a third of 1%. the treasury is stable. alix: volatility is picking up. the vix is surging by about 6%. the mexican peso is climbing higher after a killer week last week. the safe haven trade, gold, goes nowhere. crude is stable at 53. david: friday, president trump signed an executive order