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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  February 1, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm EST

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left, mark zuckerberg pockets and next to $3 billion. trading session getting underway in jakarta at the moment. is having a look at what is going on so far, mixed bag, right? inhie: certainly a mixed bag asia, jakarta coming online, slightly higher, but some of the big movers, we have the taiwan exchange leading. lower, down .4%. movement in the yen, and the kospi up .2%. nomura raising south korean equities, coming from rising earnings and improving equitiese, but
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cautious to neutral on the favorable risk-reward. cutting china to neutral. a quick word on taiwan, lower, but coming from that four-day s when it comes to semiconductors, and focus given to tech giants, strong earnings overnight. news aroundy, some this stock, shares snapping a thatay drop as we heard samsung is in talks with the chinese government to expand its mou may be and a signed this year. rishaad: thanks, sophie. sophie kamaruddin there. first word news headlines, h
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aidi is in sydney for us. president trump witness the swearing in of rex tillerson as his secretary of state. sawier, 56-43 vote lawmakers split along party lines. republicans supported the president's view that his background gives him the connection and skills needed to promote u.s. interests abroad. >> a steadfast reminder to me as forter the responsibilities secretary of state, that as i served as president, i serve their interest and always represent the interests of all american people at all times. a spokesman for the mexican president has denied a report that president trump threatened to send troops south of the border. it cited the transcript between the leaders, saying trump accused the mexican military of what he calls bad hombres.
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at ofll to take the u.k. the european union has passed its first test in parliament, lawmakers agreeing to allow the prime minister to start negotiations by the end of march. warned thiskers should not be mistaken for unconditional support. the government will publish an outlier later thursday. iran has confirmed it has carried out a missile test at the weekend and warned the world to not metal and its affairs. their iranian defense minister says iran has no aim but to defend itself, but would neither seek permission or allow others to interfere. the launches the first diplomatic test of the trump administration, and the u.s. ambassador to the united nations have said iran's actions are unacceptable. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. well, the federal
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reserve giving a nod to the rising confidence generated by the new president at its first meeting of the year, but offered few hints about rate hikes. latere has a decision due , kathleen hays is watching this. what can we infer here for more the fed said? infer what we thought going into this, the federal reserve is leaning towards more rate hikes this year. there is no rush. furthermore, donald trump is cuttingabout bills, taxes, boosting spending, taking steps on trade that will favor u.s. manufacturers and protect them from cheaper imports overseas. the one thing they acknowledged, even in a short policy
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statement, here is the sentence that is key. measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. you is putting it mildly if look at this chart of consumer confidence, 4109 is the number, and you can see you have the future expectation at the highest level and continues to accelerate. the present situation is not so bright, but the fed chose not to rock the boat and will wait to does anddonald trump how the economy picks up, but no change, and not even any hand about what happens next really. rishaad: well, you know, trump stronging against a dollar. fed officials playing down the impact of fat. how long does this remain a concern for him, and will it be a concern for the fed when they meet in march? is we are interesting seeing indicators from around
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the world that may be the global economy is not in such bad shape. for thepicking up, as u.s., it is instructive to look at manufacturing through the purchasing ism managers index closely watched in the u.s., jumping 256 in january. we take a look at it in the bloomberg and put alongside at botharket pmi as well indexes showing manufacturing is moving ahead in the united states. that isis something worth questioning. the strong dollar, if it will have an impact, will not play out right away, but maybe there is momentum in manufacturing than people realize. friday, the adp services number, private job count, the most workers added to the private sector in seven months, 256,000 net, new jobs. it could be a signal that we will get a stronger than
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forecast payroll number on friday, one more adding to this question about the fed. where you wait to june, consider a hike in march, but we don't have that number yet. rishaad: right, let's have a look at the doe, i'm meeting, mark carney in the difficult position, because the inflation built-in is from essentially devaluation of sterling after june 23, but does he wait till that goes away? wouldn't interest rate hikes be like pushing on a string here? a good question, because they welcome the fall in the pound because they want to boost u.k. exports, make the exports cheaper overseas. the question is at what point does of falling currency make in port so sensitive that it hurts consumers and slows down the theomy, but we are seeing steady rise in inflation as the latest monthly retail sales and the u.k. showed a sudden drop
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after spending holding up well after the brexit vote last june. this is another bloomberg terminal chart, 4650 two, u.k. inflation expectations moving higher. in fact, the highest level in three years. bloomberg intelligence team in london is saying that u.k. inflation is very mark carney, the head of the 08 could blink on his stance, no change in rates. seeing a cut in rates because they believe it will take its toll. it may. this brexit has barely begun to play out for british companies, but now the forecast for inflation moving ahead, they are seeing it lifted, so it will show more potential division within the boe than we are seeing at the federal reserve or the boj this week. rishaad: good stuff. kathleen hays in tokyo force.
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cpi south inflation, korea much more than expected. let's look at what this means for policy and policy makers. david is in singapore. bank of korea is in quite a pickle, aren't they? yeah, a record low here on the official bank rate. we will talk more about the implications of that in just a moment, but let's look at the number itself. ate, so inflation r not quite there at target. that being said, look at how big of a surprise this was. look at south korea, this is inflation for this month. i know it looks disney, so let me take you through quickly. , highest the forecasts one at 1.9%, median 1.5%. this is how that looks on a bell
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curve, 1.5% is the median, that is where we are. comes atntioned, this a complex time for south korea. exports have become a question, is there more to this than just the base effect? have a look at how the inflation rate looks, the official bank rate. thatthey are telling me is those who are now, or who were to cutlling for the bok rates and support the economy and close that negative output gap between potential gdp and where it is now might have to call that off. at the moment, it does limit their ability to respond using the key rate if inflation does pick up further from here. the thing is, how does this change, the mood music, the bigger conversation about inflation globally? is it becoming a world where we
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are seeing inflation, or essentially a country specific story? we have seen more inflation. we are not seeing deflation anymore. that said, we have to move past the first three months of this year. we have been talking about this since the start of the year because this time last year, oil prices bottomed out, so you have the base effect, commodity prices also bottoming. how does it change the overall situation? have a look at this other chart i have here on the bloomberg. what it shows you is the inflation global surprise index, and we are not positive, the highest level in five years. , actual inflation numbers, have come in higher now than what people were expecting. positive last month,
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and that is where we are at the moment. the conversation? no. does it continue the conversation? definitely. at what point do we say we raise rates? we will have to wait and see. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. still ahead, not a good start to the year for carmakers in the united states with toyota leading declines. details on the way. plus, watching the dollar, how should currency traders view donald's policy and what are the longer-term risks. the bank of singapore gives us their view. that is next. ♪
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rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. a business flash headline, johnson nutrition, shares climbing 21% in after-hours. why? maker,or the baby food
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it would be financed by cash and debt. mead johnson shares are down 33% from their peak in 2015. why? people buying less because of a resurgence in an interest in rest feeding in china and elsewhere. beating third-quarter estimates on racing profit forecasts, to cater pharmaceuticals seeing revenue fall in the three months at the end of december, that after a boost of gastroenterology drugs. overt forecast to just $800 million. a broaderivals say lines could be on the way after announcing an agreement on catering and aircraft maintenance. it allows lufthansa to provide food and plane upkeep.
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the chief executive said it marks a major step and more tieups are being discussed. at the next to look phase of co-share. our teams met today and there are a range of opportunities and cargo systems, information technology, how we work with other equity partners, so we are keen to continue the dialogue. right, well, let's have a look at what is going on in face as we exchange get to sophie kamaruddin. for thesome catalyst currency markets alongside the fed update. fromiwi dollar recovering its earlier plunge, brought on by concerns over an outbreak of cattle tb, so trading just below $.73. the british pound gaining after theresa may was given the nod to
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trigger divorce talks with the eu. the tie dollars surpassing the korean won as the best performer, the highest since september. speaking of the korean won, a nice job on the back of inflation data this morning, trading at a three-month five. we also have the aussie dollar extending gains, breaking through the january high. it is the best performing g-10 currency to date. this is after all straight deliver that record trade surplus in december thanks to that surgeon iron ore and coal exports to china and japan. the yen, a day of swings, but stronger after falling on wednesday. prime minister shinzo abe saying that japan is -- inhaad: right, let's bring an fx strategist for the bank of singapore.
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we seem range brown, waiting for something. what is it? bound, waitinge for something. what is it? >> the dollar struggling and reinforces our view. we are seeing the trump trade turning into a trump fade. there are a few reasons. , the catalyst behind strong dollar has been american is morphingut this into a global reflation, and therefore there is no why the dollar should be exceptionally strong. the other reason is the market is where he about policy -- ary about policy, bringing flows back into safe haven assets here it we are seeing some of that now. dollar likely
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consolidates. i am wary about dollar setbacks that could arise because of a policy accident. rishaad: what do you mean by a policy accident? the hope behind the strong dollar has been the reflation hope, the focus on fiscal policy, to get some of this tax reform through, and that could support the dollar because of the boost to the economy, hence higher inflation, forcing the fed to move, but as it turns out, the focus has been more on social policy, which if a policy mishap, the example of a more protectionist policiey stance. that causes a spike in the risk
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aversion, and that could undermine the dollar against reserve currencies like the euro and yen. ,ishaad: i'm astonished by how not just me, but others, how strong it has remained. area,nk within the euro we looked at bond spreads, forget about southern europe, greece, portugal, but look at italy and germany and the spread there. this is not sending the right message out, is it? so many strains within the euro area not being dealt with. i agree. i think the market is increasingly concerned about the election risks in europe. it is difficult to see that in the euro itself given that it is also a safe haven asset, but given the election risks, it will be difficult for the euro to rally substantially.
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we see that in the italian-german bonds spread, the n bond spread as well. in the environment to hedge against risk aversion, the euro may not be such a good hedge. i would pick gold, the yen as a hedge against a possible rise in risk aversion. rishaad: absolutely, and this brings us onto the yen. why has it become a haven trade? the think goes back to possible disappointment over the actions, where the rise in the u.s. bond yields , andtopped out for now that is undermining some of this upward momentum in the dollar-yen itself.
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we have seen a sharp rise in dollar-yen, and right now, there is concern about policy missteps which could drive risk aversion, and that in turn could lead to further yen strength. i am watching the 112.50 level. if it dips below that level, it could set us up for a dollar setbacks. rishaad: thank you so much. , butve to take a break casino operators are looking at a bumpy recovery with revenue growth shy of expectations in macau. that story and more on the way. ♪
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rishaad: maccallum could be in for a bumpy ride to recovery after the world's biggest gaming hub saw casino revenue growth slow in january.
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revenue was up 3.1%. that it wasse sight shy of what analysts had been calculating. what is going on exactly? the median estimate was 8.5 percent growth, so 3.1% was a big mess. rishaad: shocker. >> it was disappointing. analysts talking about chinese new year and how it was softer than expected. on how the impact january numbers played out. rishaad: all the hotel room seem but may be, full, are not gambling so much. lunar newbeing we had year full holiday in january, not february as last year. you are telling me it is not about the holiday, but what happens afterwards because of
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high rollers coming in after the holiday. high rollers tend not to become at the beginning of the chinese holiday, but on the third or fourth day, so we are more likely to see the impact of the chinese new year gaming revenue in the february numbers, so i have had a look at the analyst commentary, and they are looking at low single digits growth. these are mixed. in terms of the overall recovery for macau, it is looking choppy. rishaad: is the recovery intact? that is just the thing. it depends on who you talk to. thank you very much indeed. looking at revenues in macau. still up, two years of slumping revenue there, last six months seeing a move upwards. it is stuttering a tad. chinese developers investing outside their core business, and
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what is being done about it. we have a look at that story, plus a full market update on a day of mixed equity markets in the asia-pacific. ♪
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>> it is 10:29 a.m. in hong kong. i'm haidi lun with first word headlines. down, one to go in the week of central bank decisions, the doj and fed leaving things on hold, while adopting an optimistic tone. now attention turns to the boe. carney nots mark raising rates until 2019. we may see a move by next year. bill and his has warned growing global tension as he delivered the nation address a noted increasingly assertive russia and china, donald trump, and rising nationalism.
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forged our place in the global community as a fair-minded people with a successful economy open to trade, open to investment, and open to other people migrating to our country. one immigrant is causing problems for the kiwi prime minister. ater thiel has sparked possible dispute after it was revealed that he won new zealand citizenship despite only being in the country four times. he was approved for his entrepreneurial skiers and philanthropy -- skills and philanthropy. the long time front runner for the french presidency under pressure to withdraw as concern grows about his employing family members on public money. he has asked his republican party for time to put his
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campaign back on track. polls find support is draining away. he denies giving his wife and children nonexistent jobs. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: well, let's have a look at what is going on market wise as we get a lunch break in tokyo. , one of thosebag markets on the way down. here is sophie kamaruddin. yes, i mixed bag in asia. we have earnings watch in the region. just an update, hanjin shipping halted, asked to clarify liquidation speculation, an update for our viewers. some of the movers on the back the japaneseeport, car parts maker rising after its
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third-quarter profits beat estimates and listed its operating profit outlook. 1%.ta falling kddi falling almost 2% today ahead of earnings outlook do this afternoon. the mobile communications service provider also sells mobile devices. this week, the nikkei newspaper saying april to december operating profit rose 15%. we will find out this afternoon once they announce earnings. earnings include mitsubishi electric, panasonic, and sony. rishaad: thanks. the automotivet industry in the u.s., where sales slowed down after at december the best in a decade.
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ramy inocencio has the numbers. let's kick things off with the top line first. ramy: first sure. 17.6 andn at $17. auto sales, beating expectations, higher by 300,000. december was definitely the month to beat, the best month in a decade. you can see 18.4 million was what we had a month prior. this for this month? january turns out to be the slowest month of the year for u.s. auto sales. as we get deeper into company-specific issues, toyota, 11% inrysler, both down terms of auto sales year on year. toyota doing worse than expected, down by nine percentage points.
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fiat chrysler beating, but not by much, just a little bit that are, three percentage points, gain against an estimate of -14%. car toyota and other companies, it turns out the fact that there is cheap gas and abundant gas out there is pushing consumers to buy gas and that trucks, suvs, is helping some divisions of companies, but hurting other divisions, and hurting more than helping. for example, toyota hurt by cheap gas, the share price the lowest in the past two months. fiat chrysler also seeing that dichotomy, ram trucks up 5.5%, but other brands down. look atr story when you two of the main u.s. auto companies, gm and ford, both falling in terms of sales from
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this january to last january. gm worse than expected, down down 1%, butrd beating the estimate of 3%. there after-series trucks are still very popular in how popular, their 40th straight year and a wrote that it is the best-selling truck in the united states, but some good news. nissan, honda, all saw gains in auto sales for january. ofkswagen, you see that pop 15%, missed estimates, but doing better because it is coming out from the diesel emissions scandal that has haunted it for the past year and a half or so. nissan and honda also seeing record sales, especially nissan because of its rogue crossover sales, up 46%. the fact there is cheap gas is
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helping the bigger auto sales, but lighter trucks, lighter outweighings the we the heavier automobiles. very much.ank you moves by chinese property developers to diversify outside core business concerning creditors, and bonds suffering. we have a look at some examples of developers investing away from their core business. it has been ringing alarm bells about the paper they have issued. the builder led a group of companies to invest $2.2 billion in a china tech company. another example is that we and dalian one that diversifying into entertainment and sports. grand, example is ever
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quite ambitious in the financial sector, bought a stake in a bank and an insurance company the year before. rishaad: the question is, why are they doing this? >> the builders of facing competition in their home markets. their profit margins are under huge pressure. it is squeezed into a record low. that is why they are looking at other industries for opportunities at home and abroad. so diversification hearts these builder bonds. how is this manifesting itself? like certainty and predictable cash flow, so they want the best assets that can service that. -- service debt. shareholders like to ask the question what is the best thing that can happen. the bondholders ask what is the worst thing that can happen. that is why bond prices tend to drop. story, ann your invitessaying it
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questions about their strategic focus and how their credit profile will involve. >> exactly. it is a question of you not being confident in your own business. you so much.k right, we moved to india, the finance minister there, outlining a budget aimed at boosting consumption and investment. groups, of industry real estate. give us the overall details. rosalind: it does look like the , the bank saidr it was a pro growth budget with fiscal prudence. announced athey boost to infrastructure spending, including low-cost housing and increasing social where fair funding, loans to farmers, and tax cuts for people earning less than 500,000
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rupees. many of these policies will help to 70%ommunities, home of india's population, and those will be important in elections coming up saturday. there are also measures to spur job creation, and all of this coming together should stimulate domestic demand and consumption. all of this taken quite well by economists. spending will increase by 6%, and some of that will be funded by a 13% increase in tax collections. the budget deficit, which is the biggest in asia, two point 5% this current year, will be decreased to 3.2% of gdp. currentlower than the
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3.5%. fiscal prudence has been the keyword. investors like what they heard, and we saw the sensex make its biggest rally in a decade. generally, this budget has been sectors.y quite a few the losers are the pharmaceuticals industry and cigarette makers. accompaniedes are by a central bank rate cut, which could be coming, and the state elections, that could generally be a big boost to prime minister narendra modi. you would imagine, a lot of reaction to the budget. of india's leading housing finance company says the government's right to help the rural poor. 68 percent of our population
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live in rural india, and we need to have rural development. , thehave committed it finance minister, has committed that people living under the poverty line will come out of it. allocation for rural housing has increased. multiplier effect, impacting a number of industries, particular steel, cement. rishaad: the chairman of the welcomeonglomerate also the budget, which he said would do a lot for india's growth prospects. >> the finance minister presented a reform in growth oriented budget this morning. there were many good proposals in this budget. it will add a lot to the gdp
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.rowth of the country thing wasgest sticking to the fiscal consolidation roadmap, which is a big issue for many global investor clients. a lot of clients have been investing in india over the last three years, not just because of the growth story, but also the macro stability in terms of lower inflation and a stable currency. sticking to the fiscal consolidation roadmap will make sure that stays for a while. rishaad: that is the word on india's budget. coming up, we look at how a trade war with china would offset any fiscal boost in the united states. rbs chairmanfrom on donald trump's policies. that is on the way. ♪
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let's have a look at business flash headlines, volkswagen paying 1.2 billion dollars to resolve u.s. consumer claims. the proposed settlement is with the federal trade commission, and the tribe first of 78,000 three liter diesels, including vw, audi, and porsche models. total penalties, by fax, and fixes to more than $23 billion. j.p. morgan and certain affiliates have agreed to pay $800 million to resolve remaining litigation from the lehman brothers bankruptcy. the bank handed over $1.4 billion last year. this deal does require bankruptcy court approval. for februarys set 16. lehman brothers was the biggest bankruptcy in history in 2008
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with more than $600 billion in debt and liabilities. sony shares under pressure. out later on. investors watching for demand for playstation consoles and gaming software. that division accounting for more than 20% of revenue. the chief executive we'll head to california, where he will temporarily relocate and become co-head of sony entertainments. ok, rbs chairman saying president trump's thinking on trade is old-fashioned. howard davies telling bloomberg data trade for with china would offset any fiscal boost in the united states. >> the big issue at the moment is we have had a run-up in the dollar and stock market with ationyou call the trumpfl trade, but now it seems the
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of theionist impulses trump administration look quite strong. we have had people criticizing the germans, the chinese, japanese of currency manipulation, and people are starting to say, well, is this going to be serious? will we get some species of trade war? result ofays the physical relaxation, but the long run impact of a trade protection agenda is likely to be negative. we are at the point where people are starting to pause and say, is this really serious? haven't say yet because we just heard rhetoric and no executive orders have been written in this area. then't think it invalidates format, but from a market and growth perspective, it would be an offset if we got into it with china most likely, then that would be an offset, because
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trade net exports would decline, and that would offset the economic boost of the fiscal relaxation. at theou were teaching london school of economics lecturing today, how much would you speak about mercantilism and a zero-sum society? is that where we are heading? >> we would teach that is a dangerous place to go. that is a peculiar way of thinking about trade, a 19th-century way of thinking about trade, and one would begin by talking about the comparative advantage and how trade can benefit both sides. idealistic, but if you can't be idealistic at the london school of economics, where can you be? this way of thinking about trade is an old-fashioned way of thinking about trade and not one that reflects contemporary economic thinking. >> how do you are the theories we have into the 21st century? >> well, that is a difficult
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question. >> in 20 seconds. >> and 20 seconds, yes. what you have to do is a bit of history here. i think people have to be shown oft the potential risks going down the track are, and you have to hope there is a quick education process underway for the new administration. >> who does the president listen to? it seems he could want more bilateral trade deals because it gives more power and leverage to the u.s. is it completely far-fetched to think we could have some kind of -- accept thee has to discussions over the last few years about teacher and the tpp
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-- about tpp and others have a stableeed for economic trading fretwork. there are people who believe that there are things wrong with the trade relationships we have at the moment. the issue is whether you approach that from a multilateral angle saying let's talk about this multilaterally, but we have our interests, or do you talk about it from our interests and the rest of the world wants to talk with us, that is fine, but we will pursue our interest in a bilateral way? one hopes that you at least use the multilateral frameworks to argue whether some of these deals have been disadvantageous for the u.s., and possibly some have. rishaad: rbs chairman howard davies speaking to francine lacqua and tom keene. facebook, user numbers heading towards 2 billion. we break down the numbers. that is on the way.
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you are with bloomberg markets. quarterly earnings and user growth that facebook ahead of estimates, the social network solidifying its position as number two in mobile advertising behind google. caroline hyde synth is this from san francisco. facebook seeing shares popped
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into record high territory as earnings per share and revenue the expectations. revenue surging 50% for their fiscal fourth quarter, and eps jumping more than 70%, the amount of users continues to ramp up. to 2 billion close individuals logging on on a monthly basis, and two thirds click in every single day. 1.2 3 billion using facebook every day, three times the u.s. population. being shown.h is when we spoke to the cfo, he continued to say that it is businesses that are adding to the growth potential of facebook , the fact they are coming onto mobile via facebook and instagram and converting into advertisers. tellingg intelligence us that instagram is where we could see more money being brought in. at the moment, only 500 million
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businesses advertise on instagram. we have the new numbers in terms of the user base of businesses, 65 million pages on facebook for businesses, and 5 million on instagram, significant growth on a year on year basis. it looks as though they are not backing away from their previous warning that they will be spending big and revenue might be slowing down in the next quarter. they said the spending is largely going to head count. they ramp up headcount to the tune of 34% in the last quarter. they were seeing 17,000 individuals added, called into research and development, and that accelerated growth will continue into 2017. they say they will aggressively invest for the long-term growth potential. numbers a strong set of coming out from facebook, and the shares continuing to gain. facebook there, right,
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let's have a look at these pictures. a volcano in hawaii putting on a dramatic show, a powerful lobby stream pouring -- lava stream pouring into the sea. thisusher opening up early week and been flowing steadily ever since. va poses no threat, are instructed to steer well clear. coming up on bloomberg markets, shery ahn looking at the big stories of the day so far, the fed, boe, and nonfarm payrolls data on friday. next hour, we will review the fed statement and previewing the boe policy decision later this thursday. that the oes expected to raise
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their inflation and economic forecasts, and also to offer their latest brexit assessment. chinesealso look at builders, because they are branching outside their core business, fueling worries as this is hurting their bonds. why are they branching out? also, earnings out of japan, one of them sony, set to report third-quarter earnings later today. this it as the ceo arrives in california, trying to revive their movie business. all of that is coming up on "bloomberg markets: asia". ♪
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♪ >> from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: eli broad is one of the world's most prominent philanthropists. "the new yorker" called him the -- of los angeles. the broad opened in september of 2015 as the downtown showcase for his contemporary art collection. it is the fourth contemporary art museum he has conceived and brought to fruition. next month will mark the 10th anniversary of the stem cell research centers funded by the broad foundation. he and his wife have also invested nearly $600 million in public education. i'm pleased to have him back at this table. welcome.


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