tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg March 5, 2017 11:00pm-12:01am EST
♪ yousef: the rise across asia, north korea set to launch more missiles. south korea and tokyo fire off protest. lowering its growth targets. stability and risk reduction are the priorities. yousef: relationships between turkey and germany sink amid accusations of problems with democracy. green, a push into
renewables is seen widening the appeal of its much-anticipated ipo. yousef: it is 8:00 a.m. across the emirates. welcome to "bloomberg markets: middle east". i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. our top story today, north korea reporting missile launches early this morning before the markets opened. markets look at how reacted, we saw a spike in defense related stocks. let's jump into my bloomberg. i have the industrial space right here. .6%. this little bit on a day where it is subdued and volumes are not quite there, defense stocks up him a 1.5%. have a look at some of these names, five within that space. that said, history tells us that
when you have these spikes on the peninsula, you get a spike in stocks. and you get a drop subsequently. japan ande story, south korea have issued a strong protest. we are looking at reactions from the u.s., and most importantly china. guests oned by our all this. what do we have here? it is just ratcheting up relieved attention. this,h, it is kind of something we have not seen in a long time. the missiles are fired routinely. the difference here is a comes npc. goingas its i .
so these things add with the latest mental launches some additional tension. looking at my bloomberg at how and the past south koreans consumer confidence has fared when news from a north korean missile launch came through. this is fantastic work. look at the spike around 2013. not much of a dent in south korean consumer confidence. you pointed out some of the key variables that are different this time around. what could a misstep look like and how quickly could escalate? what everyone is looking for now is whether the north will fire an icbm. had is what kim jong-un threatened to do, and trump said it won't happen. if that happens, that would ramp things up and take things to a new level because they would be testing for the first time a
weapon that could deliver a nuclear warhead to the continental united states, so that would present an immediate challenge for trump. we saw three missiles land in japan's youusive economic zone, and had prime minister shinzo abe and the japanese government saying this is a new level of threat as well and praised their alert level. let's expand on the china element to the story. the north's main ally and protector. tom mackenzie joins us from aging. how much pressure is china into rain in pyongyang here? mounting pressure, i think, but a dilemma for beijing's leaders. the administration in washington, trump has raised the ante on this and the pressure for china to act. china will not be happy about what is going on in north korea. it does not want things to
overshadow its congress in beijing at the moment. it is taking steps. coals banned the import of from north korea, back united nations sanctions on north korea after previous missile tests. it does provide 70% of north korea's trade and a lot of food and energy aid as well, so there is more they could do in beijing, but there are some risks they need to work out here thehey don't want to see regime and north korea collapse, and they certainly don't want to see a u.s. backed out like takeover in north korea should the regime collapse, so it is a difficult allen singh for leaders here in beijing. david: i'm just wondering, you are covering the npc, we typically see chinese leaders want to project a perception of strength. we have a lot of reported meetings throughout the next couple of days, is there a chance this comes up and they
make it public? i would be surprised if it ats not, up, particular a the foreign ministers press conference on wednesday. it is short be of their a long with how china deals with the trump administration. not,er they like it or this is a topic that will be discussed, and they want to put forward this image of strength and leadership in the region, but this is an issue that divides the communist party and the leadership here. would pushhose who for continued support for their ally, once described as being lips and teeth, but some suggest the tensions are getting too high. is causing all sorts of angst when china is facing other big geopolitical and mustard challenges. yousef: we will leave it there
for the moment. , let's pull up some key asset classes we are watching as these key themes are unfolding. you're looking at gold slightly to the upside, .6%, and gaining momentum. the yen.pressure on those u.s. 10 year yield slipping after gains of five days, and also dipped below the .0 day moving average for wti let's cross over and look at natural gas. that one on the move as well. this is an extension of gains, but for all you him's three times higher in the 100 day moving average for the time of the day. onch 1 report from citigroup u.s. electricity demand important as well. let's talk more about how this impacts markets. you talked about the demand we are seeing for risk assets.
monday, i talked about these defense related stocks and south korea. we are joined by tony nash at complete intelligence live out of singapore. thank you for joining us. your general thoughts here on what the north has been doing, because we are used to this anyway, i'm just wondering in your view if there is anything different from what we have seen over the past several months? >> the other element i have not adard discussed is the tha discussion, the missile and fermentation in south korea, so that is a moving part that china and north korea are not happy with that related to that discussion. china is trying to push south korea back from doing that. if north korea keeps shooting these things off then it for it andthe need makes china's discussions more
difficult. bringing china in into this conversation, your general thoughts on the npc, the growth target, six .5%, not very exciting. a lot of people don't believe the number anyway. your key takeaway, if any. is ine, i think the npc risk management mode. they are focused on debt to equity swaps and taking that down, the leverage in the chinese economy, so our view at complete intelligence, growth at about 11%, but and u.s. dollar terms, 4.1%, with an assumption of a 7.1 exchange rate with the u.s. dollar, so we see more devaluation coming around. we think they have been holding off for the npc, but once the npc is passed, we will see the central bank resume a gradual devaluation of renminbi. are the systemic
risks we have talked about on this program so many times over the past few weeks really under control? >> of course they are not. so widespread and so large, and the first step of getting a grip on systemic risks is information, and xi jinping, one of the first things he did when he came in, and dispatch people from the central audit hero to the provinces to better understand what was going on, so that picture has come back and they are seeing things more clearly, but we are not convinced they have the right data even to make a decision, so they are steering the boat as much as they can. i don't think they are managing the economy poorly. i think it is a question of the data and tools they have to management. we see 2017 as a relatively fast growth year, up on 2016, but we will see things slow dramatically in 2018, and we are
expecting a recession in renminbi terms in 2019 in china. yousef: hold that thought. we will consider -- continue our conversation. let's check first word headlines. so may kamaruddin. -- sophie kamaruddin. claims came via breitbart news that the obama administration tapped trump tower during the election. james klapper denies any wiretap was ordered. libya slipping after halted exports from two of its biggest terminals and reduce production after clashes with rebel groups. libya's national oil corporation says shipments have been suspended until security improves. the libyan army has been carrying out airstrikes,
attempting to regain control from rebels. the british government is being warned that it risks inc. reduce the "the worst of all worlds" if post-brexittailor immigration rules for specific industries. a sector by sector approach under consideration by prime minister theresa may not reduce immigration, but would push up costs. reason may want to start brexit talks by the end of this month. french presidential candidate fi llon has rejected calls to stand down. the conservative is accused of using public money to a his wife and children for caring out fictitious jobs. he denies the accusations, but his campaign director and and right-wing politicians have abandoned him. we are focusing on the french elections with some exclusive interviews and paris later today. at 7:30 a.m. london time, the ron joinsadvisor to mac
us. on's we speak to fill economic advisor come at 1:00 this afternoon in dubai. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. sophie kamaruddin. david: good one. coming up on the show, we talk the markets, what is driving them. ratef: a case for a fed hike this month and its possible implications for this part of the world. this is bloomberg. ♪
effect if you will across the equities. yousef: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" live on television and radio. let's get you kicked started in terms of what to expect for middle east trading. do, two hours away from the opening, let's show you some markets across the region. an interesting benchmark there, pretty much unchanged. index, downward pressure, the biggest loser in the middle east, the lowest level in two months. tech down 2%, skepticism about the recovery. weakness and financials. also weakness inside arabia when it comes to financials. we did see some bright spot in some of the banks. down.dawul
upside performance from egypt, extending momentum, up 1.5%. let's talk more about the fed. janet yellen left little doubt that the federal reserve will raise rates this month. guest, tonyback our nash at complete intelligence. his the fed moving too fast. is the u.s. economy strong enough to withstand another move in fed rates this month? it is delicate. it is not too early, and there has been a lot of discussion over the last 6-9 months that it might be too late, but it is probably the right time. i don't know if we will hit the four hikes that was stated in one of the meetings recently, but whether it is this meeting or next meeting, i think it is probable, and i think the economy will absorb it in stride
and i don't think it will be anything people are surprised by. this puts the interest rate diversions in focus again between europe and between the united states. you can see that in the spread ds andn the two-year bun treasury yields. this makes life for the ecb with this decision this week? >> sure it does. the diversions is an increasing issue. with asiais an issue with sovereign debt and corporate debt nominated in u.s. dollars, and that diversions weighs heavily on the minds of a number of policymakers. tony, the jury's still out if we will see four. whether the u.s. economy is healthy enough for four 25 basis point hikes. due to asiaat then
as far as outflows are concerned? to see ak you start tightening of liquidity and asia and you start to see a lot of considerations from central banks about what their policy really is, and especially if you look at corporate and even sovereign debt and parts of southeast asia and china in the corporate sector, u.s. dollar denominated debt is a concern, so you will see people taking -- tightening up to make those payments, but it will force a recalibration for risks and for currency considerations with of countries and with those governments, so you would see a slow down. you would also see portfolio flows move to the u.s. as well and it would cause real concern for equity markets here in asia. david: let's bring donald trump into the conversation. --'s try to ask cap
extrapolate the path of the dollar for the next 4-8 years. if you look at data going back to the 1980's, we have seen a structural weakening and the u.s. dollar. if donald manages to shrink the current account deficit or get a sir place, could we be looking structural weakness starts to reverse itself? quite possible. i don't think he will see a trade surplus. we run a number of scenarios on this. we think you will see a tightening of the trade deficit, but you will not see a surplus. the real consideration is the fiscal and tax relief, fiscal spending and tax relief, so if the trillion dollar infrastructure plan comes through, we expect a 1.6 trillion dollar impact $201.8 trillion impact, and that will
strengthen the dollar no doubt. there will be dealt up against that, but we do think the fiscal impact will outweigh the debt. we don't think we will see dramatic dollar strengthening, but will see incremental dollar strengthening over the next les ts say 4-5 years. theef: the other thing market is watching is how the elections in europe will be unfolding. france and focus. how worried are you that this is going to go along the same lines we have seen in europe -- with the more populist themes? not worried either way. either way the vote goes, it is fromill of the people, so a planning perspective, we always have to be ready for these unexpected changes. let's say a say, marine le pen victory comes
around and say that is totally presented, but it will discontinuity and the policy picture in europe. the question is how quickly that accelerates. does she have the standing in the national legislature to get some of her agenda through? i don't necessarily think she will. we are not planning on that. we think it will be a statement and depending on how the next 9-15 months goes, we will see if she gets more of a plurality of that legislature. it is only after that time that we should expect to manage changes. leave itny, we have to there. we appreciate your time. thank you for coming on the program. see you on twitter. tony nash at complete intelligence. , can theiring aramco ambitions widened the appeal of its much-anticipated ipo. more on the oil giants renewable push, next. this is bloomberg.
david: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" . yousef: i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. saudi aramco may be the world's largest oil company, but it's green ambitions might lower investors to its ipo. $5 billion in renewable energy and saudi arabia's efforts to reduce its reliance on oil. give us some context about how much money they are really willing to put into green investment. >> good morning. that's right. saudi aramco is looking to invest in new technologies across the board, so they have investc funds that will in new technologies beyond their regular oil and gas business, which is mainly saudi arabia-based. allocating, they are
$5 billion for projects outside the kingdom. more broadly, the country itself is looking for a renewable energy investment plan of $30 billion to $50 billion and bring on 10 gigawatts of solar and wind power by 2023. that would be a fifth of what they have now, so a big increase in power capacity there to meet demand. david: let's talk about timing. it makes sense and looks good on paper, so why didn't they do it earlier? >> it makes sense now as prices have come down. the cost of solar panels has come down. there is huge capacity and the market, almost overcapacity, and they have gotten better about making them more efficient. saudi arabia had an earlier plan with the broader scope, wanting to bring 40 gigawatts of solar
power on by 202040 -- by 2040. that never caught traction. now we have the new king and new deputy crown prince pushing this theon 2030 three model saudi economy, so renewable energy will be a big part of that. they are putting into place some of those regulatory and purchasing entities that they need to get the solar program off the ground, so we are expecting that will go ahead now. take awayis will not from opec's plans and saudi arabia's oil production in any way is it? plan is a plan to revitalize and revamp the economy and make it less reliant on oil for income, so they will create other industries. those industries would use a lot of electricity and power, and now saudi arabia generates a lot all thingsom oil,
>> i am sophie kamaruddin. these of the first word headlines. japan have and called urgent security meetings after confirming that north korea launched several missiles monday morning. japan's government says four projectile's were fired and they flew around 1000 kilometers into the sea. prime minister shinzo abe says he will launch -- lodge a firm protest and south korea called it a serious provocation. development and reform commission says cutting excess capacity is a top priority. the policymaking bodies leaders told a briefing in beijing that
private enterprise now creates 80% of jobs in china's economy. speaking on the sidelines of the cutsthey said capacity would improve the environment. the dutch prime minister has warned of economic chaos if the freedom party wins next week's elections. opinion polls say the liberals are virtually tied with the and party. the vote on march 15 is europe's first major test sense britain opted to leave the eu . >> this is an opportunity to stop the trend after brexit and the u.s. elections and before the french and german elections. so for the netherlands to vote for a policy which i want to deliver, of continuity, making sure that the successful policies of the last four and a
half years will be implemented over the next 3-4 years. tidelands popularity of among bond investors is a headache for policymakers. more than $2 billion of foreign money has flowed into thai that this year. that has helped to make the bahy t best regional currency. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. right, thanks. let's get the latest on the markets. juliet is standing by at the market board. juliette: the main focus for investors has then these ballistic missiles launched from north korea. you are seeing safety into yen weighing on japanese equity stocks. the nikkei down, but markets taking it in stride. korea is higher. we are focusing on the
likelihood the fed will raise rates following janet yellen's comments over the weekend come so you are seeing good upside from asian equities across the board today. those specific stocks impacted by north korea's actions, you are seeing general strength run these south korean defense players and korean era industries up strongly. so, korea and focus on the back of this news that china has closed nine stores across rural china, lotte shopping down. a got hit hard on reports of china curbing tourism to south korea. cathay pacific rising strongly, up around 5%. the movement in korean stocks showing tension one would say, the understatement of that year, in terms of the korea-china
relationship. versushe aussie dollar the new zealand dollar, now the highest level against the kiwi on the back of data out of australia and new zealand this morning. let's get you this story coming out of dubai. loserswere the biggest on sunday, falling to the lowest level in two months, on the same day that the nasdaq dubai launched an etf platform. with his etfrt off story before we get into dubai volumes going to sleep. how would the spring momentum back into this in terms of people looking for proxy trades? to say that this is an intention that goes along well with all of the different tosures that stock exchanges bring liquidity and percent investors alternatives that they can have to have exposure to stocks in the region, so etf's
have never been very popular among investors here in the uae, but the authorities and stock exchanges are doing everything they can to promote them and make them more popular, so this new platform is basically integrating the market players that are supposed to be together the wholeo have market functioning as good as it can. there is only one etf being traded right now. it will be an international market maker as we can say, so there are intentions, many signals that they are just percent thing more products and more options for investors to come and put their money into the uae. yeah, certainly, david here in hong kong. let's take a step back. there is another product investors have access to it the moment, some argument as well on what sort of levels that we see
get exacerbated. what i want to ask you is what were the highlights of the first trading session as we count down to the open up markets there? >> as you mentioned, liquidity is an issue here, especially the uae market at the moment. of trade onw day sunday. average far them of trading in dubai and abu dhabi was around 50% of its average. to see is that most of the trade was done was small and midsize caps. we don't see a a lot of trading with the blue chips recently. don't is a day when we see a lot of foreign investors in the market here. starting today we should see at pickup, but a slow start. catchinghat else is your attention when you look at
equity markets around the gcc? was closetingly qatar yesterday and s&p changing the outlook for the sovereign rating from stable to negative. some people say this might bring some sort of pessimism to a market that has not been very exciting recently as well come is so qatar resumes trading today, so it could be the focus of attention as well. ausef: we will leave it there a moment, but expand our conversation. joining us now is 10 fox, and we will talk about egypt. some of the data in terms of pmi if there and looks as is strengthening and the underlying drivers for this economy. , i'm going to bring out this chart i put together to showcase what has been happening with the pmi figures and our viewers can pull it up on the bloomberg as well. this change is fascinating in terms of sentiment.
this is another milestone in a remarkable turnaround story. >> that's right. we are still looking at a contraction in activity or an indication in terms of pmi showing that activity is still below 50, but a pronounced bounce from january when it was just above 43 to february, where it is now sitting at 46.7, the headline index. the end of last year really characterized by pessimism and uncertainty vis-à-vis the exchange rate, that situation being resolved with a significant devaluation, and the initial impact was one of concern, and uncertainty, but coming out of that, you are starting to see the benefits of such a bold step by way of renewed confidence and inflows into the country, and export orders looking firm as well. yousef: where does that leave us?
the egyptian pound has been one of the best-performing currencies. hey, hey,sts saying, hey, this is going way too far. where do you see a realistic level for the exchange rate? 2016? 2018? >> i think it consolidates over the course of the year. such amonths first of dramatic change, flows will come back in at some point, interest rates are high, downside risks are less on exchange rates him a but you are getting flows into egypt. will beame time, there demand for foreign currencies that has been pent up for some time as well, so these alternating flows will contribute to some consolidation the between that 16-18 area. david here in hong kong. if there was a dramatic take up, we are still in contraction. i guess that is what you would expect. the currency is still down 40%. you would hope for some
improvement. what sort of measures from the expect, shouldwe they put in, just to solidify this momentum and get us above the 50 line? objective ofre the government policy is to get it above the 50 line, but i think growth will recover. seeing inat you are egypt is not isolated as well. you have to recognize that pmi's globally and regionally are looking very good, so the export order index which rose to just that 50, just short of area, is indicate of of two things, one is an exchange rate benefit coming through, but the global environment looking that much better, allowing exports to flourish. steps of cores, the steps to boost confidence, steps to, but at the same time reforms that will be ongoing as well in
terms of subsidy reform. these are still headwinds to growth to some extent, so it will be a slow process, but the context of global recovery is a good one and the steps taken are showing a little bit of fruit. david: how would you describe the employment situation there? we are still seeing the rate of firings or job losses among but not as bad as say a few months back. understandable. you will not see a dramatic turnaround in that outflow immediately. it, the employment picture will change with a significant lag when you start to see a more persistent trend of improvement and activity, and i think, so i am not expecting a dramatic change in the employment situation, but it will take place over time, so long as policies are maintained the promote stability. yousef: we will talk more about
the fed and a second, but the impact of the strengthening u.s. dollar in this part of the world, places like dubai dependent on tourism and foreign onestors, what is your take the health of the uae and saudi economies? > >> the elements in the pmi data which have a global aspect, export orders, you would expect those to be showing some vulnerability to the strength of the dollar, strength of the local currencies, but in actual fact, export growth has been produced strong, one of the stronger parts of these surveys, so what you are seeing is that companies in the region are withstanding the current firmness of the dollar. that is not to say that any further strengthen the dollar clearly that would make things tougher, but at the moment at least, the dollar
appreciation we have seen over the last few months is something managed reasonably well. orders look good across the board, but he export side looks particularly good. ouref: we will continue discussion, much to get to and terms of what the fed rate hike means, how many more, and can the u.s. economy with stand it? we will get some thoughts from 10 fox. -- tim fox. this is bloomberg. ♪
yousef: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" . i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. david: i am david ingles in hong kong. oil refineries in south africa, something that would guarantee long-term exports of iranian crude. south africa considering investing in iran's natural gas sector. down overe
disagreements on gas prices. the oil minister of iran met with the south african energy minister at the weekend. two pr firms to lobby on cairo's behalf, such a thing for the first time being made a public. egyptian intelligence hires the pr firms and shows the general intelligence service has hired several firms. right, reports from israel say prime minister netanyahu is to be questioned again as part of this ongoing corruption investigation. channel two says a fourth interview will happen on tuesday as they try to wrap up the inquiry next month. receivingdenies gifts. anything he said could be used
in court. battle time now for the of the charts. david and i will fight it out and put our guest tim fox on the spot. will win.dy know who this is what i put together, which is the pricing in of the interest rate cycle from the fed. this is what you are seeing in terms of the impact on gold prices. i've charted the gold price, the 200 day moving average, and you are seeing a firm rejection of that, underscoring that firm belief in the new way the fed will do business. is that 1200tant might be your psychological line. indicator comen and you can see that clear downside pressure. been aes into what had turbulent two weeks for global markets. what do you have david? david: i am covering copper. mine is not as complex as yours.
i don't have a single technical indicator. this is #6494 on your bloomberg. this is the copper contract traded in shanghai, 47.94, renminbi per measure time. you have the second-biggest producer in china saying that because we have had this pop they are looking to chase that in boost output. why is this important? we heard from china that they want to address these overcapacity problems. that does not include copper. anda needs a lot of copper imports a massive amount of it. this takes us back to the underlying story of demand, that demand isn't there, which is why this guy thinks prices will drop. think won. you
>> i would go with the gold chart. david: did he not chu there? no kicking under the table. >> good technical arguments are aligned a good fundamental story. the 200 dayn of average is something i take notice of, so that's where my vote is. yousef: you guys can see my face off with david again. motiont back in slow using our new feature on the bloomberg. that is at tv . you can also see previous interviews, look at that. all the functions clearly laid out. that is tv . david: right, let's ring -- back into the
conversation. let's talk about the fed. is there a case to be made that they will move? which tells me if i'm a traitor, i get on the other side and short the dollar. >> i'm not sure if it is the case of the fed not going to move. i think it is what happens after they move rates next week. the markets are still on the pricing in two rate hikes in 2017 and our suspicion is that as we go beyond the next rate hike in march that the markets will begin to look at the three rate hikes that the fed dot plot implies. really what matters is what comes next. from that point of view, i think the markets will start to pick up and think about the next timing. issef: the other big theme what is developing in europe in terms of political risks and the ecb meeting. what is your key takeaway and what worries you? the ecb meeting will be a
nonevent in terms of policy action, but carefully watched in terms of rhetoric from president mario draghi and whether he softens his qt approach. are mounting.s next week not only is it the fed meeting, but a debt ceiling in the united states that needs to be renewed, and the dutch elections, and all of that will make for quite a potentially surprising outcome, particularly under the dutch election. it could set the stage for greater volatility with the french election and april, and after that the german one as well, so i think the dutch election could be critical in terms of generating sentiment or so. those bond yields have already then moving in those key metrics. thanks a lot. that is tim fox.
yousef: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east" . i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. i am david ingress and hong kong. i'm looking at a risk on session. it has gotten better. as it stands, quite a few important themes to look out for. oil will be in focus. oil production will be reduced after militias seized a terminal, downsize pressure. that means the additional's shortage from libya and supply. we have got comments from the
secretary general who told good ons, so far, so oil production. he is optimistic those cuts will go ahead. is optimistic that offshore and onshore are responding and the process. also watch out for stocks like this one. the board will meet at noon, discussing their 2016 dividend. if you want to look at how analysts are looking at that stock, check the bloomberg. that will be a smaller company, but an important one to watch. all right, let's talk about turkey and germany. two big countries was strained relations, even after a turbulent period.
president accused berlin of practices reminiscent of the nazi era. these two have had a long, turbulent relationship, but this is arguably a new low, isn't it? >> this reminded me of that line thingsorman, where escalated quickly. they are both members of nato. turkey has been hoping to join the european union. then you wake up in your calling a g7 country, perhaps the only country still standing up for western liberal values, equating them with the nazis. it was a big escalation and deterioration and it puts angela merkel and a big bind. one way to look at it for president erdogan is that it is a win-win. up.as his referendum coming he has to campaign. he either goes to germany and appeals to the voters there, or is stopped from doing so and we
play the victim card and come out with strong rhetoric, re for angela merkel, it is a bit of lose-lose. they had that agreement to stop the flow, so she either has to risk that coming apart or allowing him to come in and challenge on the freedom of speech. germany isously coming out and saying these comments were unacceptable. i'm just wondering what else did they say on these remarks from president erdogan? >> angela merkel's hands are tied on this one. your member when that comedian redd that poem that was president erdogan and she allowed those charges to go through. it is difficult for her to challenge him openly. he could release this flood of refugees and make life difficult for her. she has an election that she needs to contest, but the lower ranking officials are coming out.
>> i have an update of your top stories. japan issuing its highest possible alert after reports that north korea launched several missiles this morning. tokyo says four were fired, they flew about 1000 kilometers across the east sea. south korea's acting president has called it a grave provocation. says cutting excess capacity is its top priority for 2017 and beyond. the policymaking body says private enterprise makes 80% of chinese jobs and says capacity cuts in areas such as coal would improve the environment.