tv Bloomberg Markets Middle East Bloomberg March 6, 2017 11:00pm-12:01am EST
♪ yousef: president trump signs a new travel order, six muslim majority nations are on the list, but iraq escapes the ban. >> the international energy asncy sees a modest recovery supply cuts boost prices. aramco's green energy push widening its appeal, but critics say they are over buying the jewel in its crown. raise, a rate hike
looks him was a certainty next week as fed policymakers are told to get on with it. 8:00 a.m. across the emirates, 4:00 a.m. and and london. i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. ahn in tokyo. we are two hours to the market close. now, the japanese yen paring some of those declines. we have seen a strengthening japanese yen because of the highest alert possible after north korea fired four listed missiles. the dollar index holding steady, while the nikkei is falling for three consecutive sessions. gainingie dollar momentum after the rba cap the rate steady. 2017 asia-pacific investors cooperation summit
here. and corporate pension funds talking about the japanese economy as we see the aging society taking a toll on retirement payouts that corporations and the public to gon funds have through, zahra key time for the japanese economy, also with fourth-quarter gdp numbers on wednesday. absolutely. day in terms of the big trades. down .25 percent, energy stocks under pressure. on the tadawul, weakness in interesting what is happening in turkey, gains of up to 1.6%. these are the best gains in the world. also, 10 year bonds in turkey. qatar returning from that
holiday, the first reaction to the s&p decision to revise the outlook for the soften rating, down .9%. what is the energy story? .lightly down also, natural gas, taking a breather after gains. currently down .5%. shery: right. let's get a check of first word headlines from around the world. here is rishaad salamat. the country's credit is generally under control, giving his first public briefing, telling officials the debt ratio want change much for china in the year ahead. governments are barring illegally. ubs saying that could swell by $3.3 trillion this year, and that is the equivalent of germany's entire gdp. the aussie dollar spiking as the rba captives cash rate of
1.5%. it says cpi will still remain low for some time. variationss urging around australia as this pickup and borrowing for the housing market continues. a poll indicates that saudi arabia may be overvaluing aramco. amost 40% of respondents to poll date the energy major ,etween $1.5 trillion considerably less than reality estimate of $2 trillion. atd managers saw the vital more than $1.5 trillion. the euphoria did not last for snap on its third day of trading. the shares falling below the ipo price of $24. shares surged 44% on the first day of training last week. on friday, the stock climbed a
further 11%. by monday, 507 analysts had a sell rating, and two had it on hold. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. we have the world of business covered. thank you. the trump administration has filed a new executive order banning entry to people from six muslim majority countries. this one is said to have been written to survive court challenges that halted the first ban. are still expected to remy and a sincere joins us from new york. tracy alloway is in abu dhabi looking at how it might be received in the middle east and possible lingle challenges. -- legal challenges. the orderndation of stays the same, but there are a couple of things that the trump administration has taken out, namely with regards to people who hold u.s. documents that
already allow them to into the country, including green cards, visas, and will citizens. if you are one of those people, then you will still be allowed into the united states. off of that, six muslim majority countries are on this list. was sevenban countries, iraq now off that list. also, refugee admissions will be frozen for the next six months, starting from march 16, once this ban is enacted. attorney general jeff sessions and secretary of state rex tillerson talked about why they are putting this into place. >> today more than 300 people according to the fbi, who came here as refugees, are under an fbi investigation today for potential terrorism related activities. our allies and partners
around the world, please understand this order is part of our ongoing efforts to eliminate phone abilities that radical islamist terrorists will exploit. >> you could hear the positions of justice and diplomacy on the half -- behalf of mr. sessions and mr. tillerson, but when you filter that into one phrase, it is all about national security. this goes against what critics are saying in terms of religious discrimination. we do have to look for to march 16, when the plan is supposed to be enacted, but already state attorneys general are saying they will challenge this and look at ways to do that looking at legal options. the washington state attorney general who was famous because of the first ban a month and a half ago said this, they are reviewing it and looking at the impact on the state and its next legal steps. the aclu also said they will push back and said there is
disapproval from the courts and people. there is a university poll out now with 38% of people saying they want mr. trump to move on. republicans in congress have finally unveiled legislation to repeal and replace president obama's affordable care act. a much of a game changer is this? >> a lot of people have been waiting for this for months, if not years, when a republican congress and the obama ministry shall trying to push that out, he they have in waiting, and we have something called the american health care act. to the aca,ontrast the affordable care act, and the main points we need to remember our that this would repeal the regulation for everyone to have proposes age-based tax credits, but there are no cost of coverage estimates. these are the details coming in now. more as we go through the evening and i just that document.
yousef: thanks. let's cross over to tracy and see how the middle east is likely to react to the latest developments. tracy, what are we in for here? this is clearly a contentious issue in the middle east, but again, the regional variations are important. iraq will be very pleased that they have been removed from the .ravel ban a lot of iraqi help the u.s. military forces. that said, some of the other things here are a little bit more contentious, like for instance, we know the trump administration was under pressure because of a particular clause they gave priority for refugee claims for christians -- excuse me, for minorities in predominantly muslim regions, and that was interpreted as christian. that has since been removed. they are trying to defend themselves against a constitutional claim that they
are prioritizing one specific region. that could prove to be contentious here in the middle east. tracy alloway joining us from abu dhabi. thank you for that reaction from the middle east and also remy and a sincere joining us from new york good let's look at how the travel ban may impact the markets. the aipac cio at deutsche bank wealth management. your time today. president trump's speech to congress was pretty well received from what the markets were doing. the tone was pretty positive. now that we have this new travel it, sort of ban 2.0, will affect investor sentiment towards the u.s. markets come especially when it comes to foreign investors? yes, so we think it should
not have a big impact. if you look at the first travel ban, the markets, i wouldn't say they ignore this, but they did not have much impact on the overall market development. as you rightly said, it is for investors like us more important how much of trumps policy for example, the infrastructure spending and in particular his plans to cut corporate tax, how this is going to be implemented. i think that is what markets are looking for. before we get to the next question, some lines we weredi aramco -- expecting some movement on the company. this is ahead of the highly anticipated ipo. we will take a closer look at those lines a shortly, but let's get back to donald trump and what this possibly means for the direction of the u.s. dollar. you have a lot of investment banks and research houses saying , wait, wait, wait.
this dollar rally is oversold. >> we have a completely different picture. we think the u.s. dollar should further continue to strengthen. to-three rate hikes, most likely next week there will be another coming, and this would speak for a strengthening of the u.s. dollar , also with inflation in the u.s. being much stronger than in the other region of the world like europe or japan. i think the fed clearly has to do more, and the interest rate differential between the u.s. or yen wouldro widen further, and that would speak to a stronger u.s. dollar. shery: why do we continue to see this big drop in dollar longs? consecutive weeks of selling when it comes to dollar longs. why aren't more people position
towards rate hikes? >> i think of course if you look at positioning, different than last year. there are already a lot of long u.s. dollar investors, so hence inry small disappointment some sort of tone, be it from trump, be it from the fed, might lead to short-term weakness, but medium to longer term for the rest of the year, we think the dollar for example versus the euro should trade around parity. stick around. we still have some things to get through. let's get you a preview of what is to calm. we talked to the uae property developer about the outlook for the region and the type with donald trump as well. shery: but first, deutsche bank's wealth management investment tips ahead of what looks like a certain rate hike
fragility of independence is a concern to me right now. i am worried that the reforms being proposed may undermine that fragility of independence and make the fed more political, not more independent. i am concerned about that. shery: you are watching "bloomberg markets: middle east.". i am shery ahn in tokyo. yousef: i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. you heard just there that the fed is running out of reasons to hold off the rate hike. he also said central banks risk losing credibility if it does not raise rates soon. our guest is from deutsche bank wealth management.
, want to bring up this chart some additional context for this story in terms of u.s. dollar strength, with the banks are predicting. call it up on your bloomberg. the forecast from ubs wealth says the u.s. dollar is 15% overvalued. coming up with the same conclusions. this currency is too strong by any historical standard. this leads to the other question , how does that position the fed in terms of rate hikes? so again, from our perspective, we also do see that from a valuation perspective that it looks a little bit overvalued if that is 15%. think will what we be the driver for the u.s. months,n the next 6-9
the interest rate differential, so if the fed will hike 2-3 times this year, we think this would speak for a further strengthening of the u.s. dollar .n particular versus the euro you also have to take into account that there are some specific european risks ahead of us, in particular with elections in the netherlands and in movee, so this might also some european investors out of euro into the u.s. dollar. in thedespite the gains dollar recently, broad gains in the dollar, we are seeing the japanese yen paring back losses. in fact, unchanged at the moment, 113.88. people seem confused about the direction of the japanese currency. possibility of japanese equities breaking out due to the currency? the possibility of
japanese equities breaking out due to the currency? >> yes, we expected the yen to weaken like our expectation for the euro. the yen has strengthened year to date. i think the markets and we as to bere expecting the boj a little bit more aggressive in terms of monetary policy come in terms of quantitative easing, and if you look at the equity of the, it is a function yen, so if the yen does not weaken over the course of the next few months, there might not be an outperformance of japanese areties must so hence you seeing japanese equity markets this year again underperforming the rest of the world. complete then't conversation without talking about european political risks increasing. i put together a chart that tells the story, in terms of the
price of u.s. paper versus the bund. what are your top line thoughts for the european elections coming up in the netherlands and france? >> as i mentioned before, i think that the two-year spread you are showing is a very good indicator for our call on the u.s. dollar, and in particular ,hen we look at the election in mainly the french election i think, overall, we expect now that may be marine le pen might the second round, so hence the pro-european policy should still be in place, but there is a risk. if she would emerge as the winner here in the second round, this might lead to some instability for the european area, and also for europe. shery: of course a key focus
this week as well will be the ecb. we are expecting more pressure on mario draghi due to inflation tapering and all those issues. do you expect the price pressures to be sustained? have seen a pickup in inflation numbers come in particular in germany, where growth obviously is stronger than other parts of the world. of course in europe as well, but we do not expect mario draghi to announce any sort of tapering already at this stage. he already mentioned of course from next month onward that they are cutting the monthly to 60ses from 80 billion billion, but will continue to do so until the end of the year. we would need to see more data to confirm that inflation is on
track so that later this year the ecb might announce some further measurements to cut down the monthly purchases and what we are seeing today. those a cpi numbers, headline and core cpi, a focus for the ecb. thank you for joining us. coming up on the show, the man in charge of reining in china's debt says things are generally under control. more on his partial vote of confidence next. this is bloomberg. ♪
beijing.nzie is in what was the key take away from the finance minister speech. a lot of china watchers would like to see more detail and action on this. the finance minister did say that debt was a concern and that local and provincial debt was clearly in focus. he wants to see local governments putting a cap on budgets and putting in contingency plans in place in case any of these debt problems and risks bubble up to the surface. he said he would be pulling back the veil on some of these risks. good words, but many want to see more action. he was asked about the tax reforms he will be rolling out. he was the former head of the tax bureau in china. part of the plan would be to exempt household items from taxes. that is a plan they are putting together.
they also want to replace the vat tax and cut the rate of taxes for small corporations by 50%. the finance minister, this was his first press conference. year was putr this at 3%. the finance minister said that would basically account for around 200 billion attitude debt piles, but was keen to point out that the money would be spent on things like tax cuts and investments rather than on spending the cash on things like welfare payments. he wanted to point that out and said china's debt to gdp level at the central government level was not at a dangerous point, 40% roughly is the jet to gdp level for the government. withwas his first meeting the international press, and we were hoping to get more details,
particular infrastructure spending. in here.et me jump we have foreign reserve data tuesday. i know that has you at the edge of your seat, but is the government running out of options when it comes to supporting the yuan? always on the edge of my seat for that one. more or less they are having less space to operate. wentx reserves, they through that $3 trillion level in january. facing the pboc as that these likely fed rate hikes will pressure the yuan and capital outflows, and the central bank has a number of options, a devaluation one of them, a benchmark rate rise, or muddling through the policies of capital controls, getting involved in money markets, and burning through fx reserves, and that is the option that bloomberg intelligence thinks is most likely. yousef: tom mackenzie from
i am rishaad salamat. first word headlines. north korea saying drills are driving the peninsula and its neighbors towards nuclear disaster. pyongyang's u.n. ambassador rice using u.s. forces of using nuclear powered ships. the nine states in japan want an urgent security council meeting wednesday. missilee, america's defense system should be operational by april. -un'sispute over kim jon brother has brought criticism. the ambassador was six well.
be on gang thesis formulation tourists, and malaysia has doing so as well. g-20 finance chiefs will drop a , comparingrotect with the wording after a july meeting. and central bankers found to resist all forms of protectionism. the new language comes up to president trump into the white house, saying he will prioritize u.s. interests. vietnam could be poised for a boost in foreign investment, and that's thanks to growth and other developing economies. and argentina make it an upgrade. investorseans that whose allocations are based on him csi decisions may lose more cash.
global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. we have the business world covered. thank you. we are seeing asia's regional benchmark rebounding, gaining for a second consecutive session, a .3%, although the japanese markets remain in the negative. let's get the details from juliette saly. of atte: it is a bit steadying across asian markets. you have a strong pickup on the is the chinese stocks in hong kong getting the run of the day. of .4%, property players and focus. shanghai itself is flat. australia having a good session come up by .3%. wasmain focus for australia that interest rate decision,
rates on hold at 1.5% as was this sellbut look at down in the aussie dollar when the rate decision was announced. an asian-basedm fx trader that some spot desks were left with longs immediately before the decision, so a sell down, but the aussie has rebounded. we have also been watching china coal stocks. download pressure coming through these companies to the tune of 1.5% to 2%, so a mixed session for the asian equity picture, but the fed still and focus. yousef: thanks. let's get you some breaking lines hitting the bloomberg. ame new information around dividend. they are proposing a dividend for 2016 and approving employee-based incentive plans, and appointing low-paying to the board.
this is an interesting stock with a consensus buy. a total return of 31% over the past year, compared to the 10% to buy benchmark. let's stick with the local story and uae property development. it has gathered attention on the backs of its tie up with donald trump. its business at home will be in focus. joining us now is the chief financial officer. great to have you on the program. welcome to "bloomberg markets: middle east.". what a year this has been for you. i want to start off with your sense of the operating environment. this chart tells the story in terms of height and dubai property. this goes back to 2009, downside pressure, the price per square foot. this is for high end and apartments. what is your take on the dubai property story at the moment? >> to understand where we are,
we need to step back and look at precrisis. dubai8 when the market had been growing, not unlike the rest of the world, dubai had a tough financial crisis in which property prices and asset prices crashed. it took dubai four years to come back. if you compare that to london in the early 1990's, asia, the 1980's, it took them 9-10 years to recover. 2012,had a great run in 2013, 2014. yousef: will we see more downside pressure? sideways for 2017, and it is healthy for markets to do that. are when worrying prices go up strongly in a short time. especially when a product is sold on a credit basis. yousef: we are seeing strength
in the u.s. dollar, one of the key themes for the last few weeks. how is that affecting your business? you have a lot of exposure in place easily affected by changes in strength of the greenback. the dollar of reflects the strength of the economy in the uae and reflects real estate as a safe haven for investment on long term basis. our core markets remain gcc, where the currencies are pegged, so that does not impact the strength or weakness of the dollar. the asian markets and some continental markets, we have seen more demand on dollar strength because fear is a great motivator and people think things will get worse before they get better, and people look for safety, and dubai offers that for the region. shery: how much cushion do you have against downswings in that dubai market where you are highly concentrated?
to expand yourg assets from beyond the city, more than you have already? history, look at our we have been predominantly do you buy-focus, 90% of our overeries came from dubai the last 10 years since we started delivering in 2006. dubai will continue to be a core market. our land bank and assets and operating profits will continue to come from dubai. i get asked about diversification all the time, but it is difficult to find a market as attractive and rewarding as dubai on a risk-adjusted basis. some analysts have downgraded your stock on concerns that rising costs will eventually impact your profit margins. with this be a problem? margins, thist industry in its very nature, the development business, is cyclical.
what you can not is wish cyclicality away. i think you can actually acquire assets at interesting prices when markets are down, and deliver and position your products in a way that would allow you to achieve financial results. themselves, they will come under pressure in a down cycle, but it is also about how you have positioned your land and develop your land. the way to look at business is on a long-term basis as opposed to a short-term cycle as business goes in and out. the key thing is to manage liquidity and whether any cycles. yousef: that is key. i'm looking at key insights here , a .5 billion dirhams. what you planning on doing with that money? >> we are very conservative. we have had cash balances higher in good and bad markets. cash balance split into
what is restricted for projects as part of the regulations of the land where money comes into the project, but can only spend on that particular project. we have healthy cash balances outside the escrow balance, but near enough to $.3 billion in cash. yousef: you are sticking around. we will talk more about other ventures. it is a globally known name, but will its connections to the white house payoff? we will get you that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪
increasing its forecast for output. already reviving investment. >> yes. this is all to do with the opec deal that was struck in november last year. the previous report in september said investment was expected to fall, and now that has changed since the deal was struck. investment will come up because oil companies have confidence in the market in the market is stable. you had volatile prices before, and since the deal has been struck, oil has been trading in ever sincear range that deal was struck, so people know where they stand and have more confidence to make those investments. yousef: will we see another supply glut question market is pull and push from these two parties, but there is momentum building behind the supply side of the equation. is a risk with supply
glut with extra investment, but the intention was to prevent an about 3-4 years down the line towards the end of the decade. now it is making investments that will come to fruition in 3-4 years in contributor stability there. youy: sam wilkins, thank for joining us with the latest on the opec output deal as well as oil prices. exxon mobil planning to spend $20 billion in the u.s. through 2022 to expand the mystic production. the ceo darren woods says the shale boom is encouraging exxon to bring spending back to america to create 45,000 jobs in texas and louisiana. the white house released a statement from president trump praising the news them a calling it a true american success story. >> very pleased to announce that
the great company exxon mobil is going to be investing $20 billion in the gulf coast and the gulf coast region. it will be 45,000 jobs, and they are great jobs, $100,000 average , and this is something that was done to a large extent because of our policies and the policies of this new administration. our guest is still with us crude when you hear donald trump and with the latest ban from the six countries, does that concern you? do you regret having had tieups with donald trump? and creater business star you to our customers and our silence. part of how we do that is associating ourselves with great brands. of thatery proud partnership with the trump organization. it adds value to us.
we had a great inauguration of our first golf course two weeks ago in dubai. yousef: so you are not reconsidering that, any additional projects going forward? perhaps those are no longer a consideration? >> with president trump in office, what they can and cannot do would be a decision for the trump organization. however, we are very proud of the association, like we are with all our brands and they continue to create value for us. shery: does that mean you are looking into other partnerships? continuously look for partnerships that are consistent with our brand and brand positioning, and that will add value to our customers, so that is part of what we do in the normal course of business. yousef: the function here to give our viewers an overview of where you stand in terms of your peers. this is blended forward earnings, p/e ratio here, the orange line is where your
pierced and come and you can see your trading there at an average of 4.9. is the market miss pricing or misunderstanding what the market is about. >> the market would do what is best and what it wants to do, and it is not for me to comment on whether the market understands or does not understand the stock. time and time again for our investors we have been a fantastic investment. take people who came in recently, we had an investor summit they where we met key shareholders, especially shareholders who came in on the ipo come a they have more than doubled their fortunes. i think it has been a good investment. ward, lethal good about the returns we can generate for shareholders. shery: the majority of your clients are gulf buyers susceptible to the swing in oil prices. what are they telling you now? if you look at our investors, our investors continue to like
our stock and continue to like our story, and you only have to look back as recent as last november where the stock price dirhams, and two now it is three. our shareholders continue to be happy. our focus is to deliver the results that will allow shareholders to see their fortunes enhanced. follows a strict presale payment policy, little to no exception there. to keep youred you cash flow, your balance sheet come in check. tell us about this difference with other developers who are more troubled because they don't have such a thing as strict presale payment plan policies. i think we have always and through the crisis have learned this more than ever before, that
this business is about cash flow. if you look at real estate projects. on paper, they always make money. what we see many developers in many parts of the world, they do not see themselves through tough cycles, and that centers around their ability and how they manage liquidity. it is easy to get excited when markets are good, credit is easy to access, selling prices happen at a price level that encourages reinvestment. you have to remember that that is all on credit, and you have to collect, therefore we have been strict on that. balancesfficient cash allows you a lot of flexibility in good and bad markets. yousef: some analysts are speculating that your stock could become of interest to the msci index. any chance to increase your free flow to make that work? >> free flow is an interesting topic. msci indexes one option, but
, 72% are still founders. it is not inconceivable to consider a further sell down, and that would help growth anyway. expansion,terms of you said you are open to new opportunities. give us a sense of where you would put new money to work for new projects, new countries, new markets. predominantly a middle eastern developer. the middle east at the moment is not having its best spell over the last hundred years or so, and from a property development point of view, we will be focused on dubai. we like saudi, an interesting market. i think those are the markets where we want to remain in. having said that, if you look at our pipeline and the land banks come it will continue to be dubai for the foreseeable future. yousef: we will leave it there.
joiningu very much for us. when new feature we would like to bring your attention to is one of my favorite functions, the interactive tv function. .ou can find it at tv you can watch us live and see previous interviews and dive into any of the functions. if you scroll lower, you will see some of the great charts we have prepped for you, including qrv function for damac properties. 20 to see there, tv . shery: you can become part of the conversation by messaging us on that function. coming up, the rising tension in asia as north korea warns the region is moving towards nuclear disaster. this is bloomberg. ♪
you are watching bloomberg. i am shery ahn in tokyo. yousef: i am yousef gamal el-din in dubai. the latest check of the business flash headlines. a dubai property developers says it will focus on cost and efficiency this year. it spent the last 12 months restructuring management and will spend at least another two years refining its spending plans. rose 28% year and is beating estimates. the board is proposing a dividend of 16 per share. egyptians working abroad sent 20% more money home following the fall of the pound. permitted $5 billion from the beginning of november to the end of january, that is compared with 4 billion the same time last year. in january alone, transfers increased 23% to $1.6 billion. iranianthe former
president has made an attempt at a political comeback. he posted a video request for supporters in english on twitter as he attempts to reestablish his relevance and iran after the supreme leader told him to stay out of the presidential race. whener was banned in iran he was the iranian president. counting down to the market open in the emirates and just over an hour. what are you looking at? properties will be in focus. the board has proposed 15 fils a share. the stock has been of 7.29%. 12 buys.have fils is yield at 15
slightly lower than forecast. we are also watching out for some information on some news in terms of stock movements are frowned a company that has been awarded a contract to develop an ethylene glycol project. that completion is expected for 2018. , unit of qatar insurance another one to watch. the turkey story is very interesting. we saw some of the gains in the turkish market. let me show you this chart right here. i put it on the bloomberg to give you that additional context. the multiples, and you have your emerging market benchmark and your turkey stocks. at a 30%ding discount to its emerging market peers. shery: the turkish lira weakening for a second consecutive session. let's go to japan, the government has now saying the
u.s. has reaffirmed his military commitment a day after north korea fired four ballistic missiles. the news, says pyongyang gang warned that american wargames in the south are pushing the peninsula towards disaster. soy sharp is in tokyo, japanese and south korean leaders have been worried that the u.s. might with a the asia-pacific because of trump. how significant is this reassurance from the president? well, shinzo abe yesterday that the threat from north korea was at a new level. the missiles got within 300 kilometers of japan's northern coast. closer they are getting and closer, so clearly people in tokyo and in the government are getting more worried about the threat from north korea. therefore this reassurance from
between thells japanese defense ministers and american and korean counterparts will certainly show north korea that the three countries despite their differences are certainly united on this issue of north korea. just talking briefly about how this will affect the u.s. involvement in japan's relationships here? >> it is a good question. i think the u.s.-japan relationship has been pretty solid. abe has made big overtures to donald trump. there were some concerns before trump became president about what his stance would be on the u.s. troops in japan, the currency, but we have not seen much of that come to light yet. so, yeah, i think all and all between the u.s. and japan, things will go on as they are. yousef: we will leave it there. again, some additional lines from emaar properties.
>> it is 1:00 p.m. in hong kong. president trump has signed an order restricting people from six muslim majority countries from entering the u.s. doing it removes iraq from the previous list. and people with green cards will not be denied entry. china says it's credit is generally under control. debt isthe