tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg March 28, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
julie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we will take you from washington to london and hong kong. there are the top stories that they are following. in markets, u.s. stocks are near session highs. the banks leading the gains. the dow is snapping an eight day losing streak. crude is rebounding and commodities. washington shifting to taxes after a week of health care drama. we will talk about which stocks to watch. backingny news, $.10 is tesla. shareholder,p five a vote of confidence in elon his vision to bring the model 32 market. abigail doolittle brings us the latest. abigail: solid gains for the
major averages. 500,ly for the dow, s&p and the nasdaq. the average is opened ever so slightly lower. the volatility over the last week, last week was the worst week for u.s. stocks, but now we are seeing a rebound. it appears the dow is on pace to snap and a day losing streak, the longest since 2011. take a look at the imap, a quick way to see what is happening within an index. we see mainly green. this explains why we have the s&p 500 higher. the banks are leading today. this point is to the 10-year yield, which had been lower, now ever so slightly higher. investors seem to be finding relief in that. that is pressuring one of the dividend yielding sectors, telecommunications, to some degree. another sector that is higher, energy.
nicely, on pace for its best day since march 2015. this has much to do with momentum around the possibility that opec will extend the cut to the second half. currently that is not on the table. there has been a lot of jawboning about opec ministers that this could happen. there are reports that a libyan pipeline could be shut down. we are working to confirm that and see if that is what is happening with oil. that oil rise is helping chevron and exxon. two rounded out, turning to technology, take out rumors by oracle. oracle may be pursuing presenter. ntra.e julie: we will see if anything materializes.
let's get a deeper look at the markets, fixed income. eichstaedt,s carl senior portfolio manager at western asset management. manages a consistent outperform or. -- outperformer. about, and asking abigail was pointing out stock was in the treasury market, we see concern about tax reform shrugged off largely. >> i think the treasury market is acting reasonably rational. grace rose sharply on the thought that we would have a fiscal package, infrastructure, tax policy, inflationary policy. we have retreated a little bit based on the fact that we may not get these policies through. i don't think the bond market is doing anything crazy. julie: we have seen not a steepening of the yield curve. we have a chart of this on the
bloomberg. slope lookwhat the like in december and what it looks like now following the rate increases from the fed. why haven't those rate increases materialized? >> i think the yield curve will flatten. i think rates will rise as the fed tightens policy. i think long rates don't need to rise that much. the rest of the world is in a low yield environment. seem.s. 10-year does not interesting to you or i, but to someone in cranford or tokyo, that seems terribly exciting. the back of our yield curve can stay pinned. julie: does that mean you are trading accordingly, shorting the short and and bidding the longer and? bidding the longer end?
>> yet. -- yeah. in the intermediate-term we will try to keep flat. julie: we are hearing two to three more rate increases, so does that outlook change at all depending on policy? >> absolutely. the fed is taking a correct outlook on this. they are going to wait to see what moves before they react. it is interesting to see what the market has done with their estimations. for the last four or five years market has said we do not believe the fed will raise rates. that was the correct position. on the trump election, it flipped. the market said the fed is on the other side of the punch bowl. we think they are going to tighten policy more.
now that we have seen the health care bill failed in some of the other potential policies not as strong, the market is going the other way. tiding dots have three -- tightenings this year. julie: it appears the market is right. >> you would not have made money betting on the dots. julie: we have this impending brexit deadline tomorrow to trigger article 50. are you seeing any opportunities for what is going on in the u.k.? >> we have been short europe for >> some time. it has economic growth shorter than the u.s. we have been long the u.s. bond market versus short a basket of developed market bond baskets.
i think this is still in a better position. julie: does that go across different bonds? we had a story today talking about people being more pessimistic about the corporate bond market in europe. have you been on that bandwagon? >> for the first time in five years, i heard him say he was looking at european banks bonds. that shocked me. u.s. banks short, european banks. the valuations have overshot a little bit. bond trades bank between 50 and 75 basis points to a u.s. bank. we are starting to look at european banks. julie: how is -- >> where roughly double the index rate of banks. they trade at a discount to
industrials. who better to benefit from a deregulation administration than the banks? they are getting back to basis. they take a deposit, make alone. no more hedge fund businesses. i think they are a great place to be. julie: given the kind of changes we have seen and the outlook for policy, do you think some of that deregulation can get through? >> you cannot have it both ways. for the better part of the seven last year's, we have said we will be sure banks because they have been th regulated. you cannot have it both ways. it is careful to see where deregulation will come. the capital controls that have been set, dance roughly twice as capitalized today, those are not controlled are the legislative branch. the things that the administration can deregulate,
we don't believe they are negative for the bondholder. julie: he will ask you to hang on. we will continue this conversation in a little bit. we will be talking more to carl eichstaedt with western asset management. let's get to first word news. ark: thank you. house speaker paul ryan says his legislature will take another crack at a health care overhaul. republicans met for the first time since his side tackled the legislation. he said republicans would try working out there differences over the measure. >> we will work together until we get this right. it is too important. obamacare is doing too much damage to families. we are going to get this right. mark: republican lawmakers say there is a consensus to keep working on health care. chairman devin nunes has
rejected calls to step aside from the russia investigation as demands growth for him to recuse himself ahead of that probe. his meeting with a secret source on white house grounds raised questions. he has denied coordinating with the president. he said pressure for him to resign was difficult politics. germany once confirmation from the u.k. that they will not renege on crucial deals during the two-year negotiation. u.k. is the union's second-biggest net payer. their bill could run as high as $65 billion. the south african finance minister says he has not resigned, but he may be on his way out. the president told political allies he plans to fire the
finance minister according to people with knowledge of the matter. the present ordered the finance minister to cancel meetings. spending in to keep check to avoid a jump credit rating. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julie: we have breaking news. the scottish parliament has backed a call for a second independence referendum. the last one did narrowly failed. scottish lawmakers have voted 69-59 for a second independence referendum. this is just one day before the deadline for the u.k. to trigger article 50 to begin its process of divorcing itself from the european union. the pound is on the lowest of the day, off about 0.5%. we will have more on this after
part of this announcement. severalry we announced hundred governmental jobs. the data center will also go. romeo will grow. we will utilize the existing capacity in the mexican plant. in u.s.ome prices rose cities. the real estate market is still strong. according to data, prices were up 5.7% in the last 12 months. thattands out is warning france and germany will take a hard line against the british aviation industry. and expect angela merkel francois hollande to oppose any special treatment for british carriers.
that is your business flash. carl eichstaedt is still with us. we talked a little bit about bank bonds in the united states and europe. we want to talk about where else you are looking. i know emerging markets is one area. emerging markets have proved surprisingly resilient. carl: you have to remember emerging-market debt had an awful 2015 and 2016. part of this is catch up. isere is legs in the trade. so much comes from china. a large percentage of exports from emerging markets go to china. we are not without concern. it is not a black hole. it is still growing at a rapid clip.
the chinese gdp as the gdp of the netherlands to the world each year. there are things and be able to the developing world. they have a right structure of zero. transfer themselves to a more western consumption economy, there are going to be fits and starts. if you believe china is a black hole, then you have to like emerging markets. you have to do a lot of country research. some countries are better than others. julie: what about china itself? what is the liquidity of the debt picture? what is the picture of safe corporate debt? carl: it is a closed market. they have an onshore and offshore currency. over time they will become more transparent and move to markets like we have. julie: you look for proxies or china or do you extrapolate the emerging markets china? carl: a natural hedge to our portfolio would be some kind of
chinese devaluation. we are short a basket of asian currencies that would mimic the chinese currency. julie: where else in the emerging markets to use the opportunity? carl: countries like brazil and argentina have been doing the right things. b.entina is rated single they have a double b balance sheet. julie: getting back to sectors as well, i want to talk about energy. take a look at the bloomberg. this is a chart of the bloomberg berkeley high-yield energy index prices in blue. high-yield index go down. it has been resistant to falling fourther. do you think it will remain resilient? carl: energy trades at a
discount to the market. it was well north of 10% during the middle of the oil crisis. the easy money has been made. there is more run to go. if you think about the business cycle, credit cycle, the banks and energy just came out of a crisis. if you go around the circle, telecommunications, hospital, they are acting more non-bond rated friendly. julie: what it have to be deeper for you to get concerned here? carl: this is what the world bank has priced into their gdp estimates for the emerging world. we are not without concern. i don't think this type of level will trigger any meaningful change. julie: thank you. thank you for spending some much time with us. carl eichstaedt of western asset management.
i want to recap those headlines from scotland. the parliament has backed to call for a second independence referendum. that is a day ahead of the deadline to trigger article 50. the pound hovering around its lows for the day in the wake of these headlines on the part of the scottish parliament voting for this 69 to 59. we will bring you up-to-date if there is any news on timing of when a referendum could happen. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
her european counterparts tomorrow. joining us is emma ross-thomas. it is not surprising that we have laws for a second scottish referendum. do we have any indication as to when it may happen and the likelihood that it has a passing? emma: theresa may has made clear she will not counsel the second referendum now. it is clear she does not want it this side of brexit. we had one in 2014. the union survived. theresa may's view is that it is too soon. also just the burden on the government as the government is trying to negotiate brexit, to fight a referendum at the same time is one challenge to many. julie: obviously she has a lot on her plate.
walk us through what happens in the next 24 hours as article 50 is triggered. emma: we don't have all the details. we know theresa may will address parliament around midday tomorrow. we know the permanent representative in brussels is going to hand over a letter. there is a lot of pros is an pageantry, but the important thing will be the content of that letter. will theresa may strike a conciliatory tone? today she mentioned a new and special relationship with the eu. will we get more of that tomorrow? quite possibly. the bigger risk at the moment is that the talks will break down without a deal. the letter could give us some indication of the way she is going into this. indicate that britain itsilling to recognize
liabilities to the european union. that would take away some of the risks that talks would break down over the size of the divorce settlement, if you like. julie: we have a story today that is a key german priority underwaye talks get that germany will try to lock in an early commitment from the u.k. to pay their eu bills. emma: not only is germany a massive computer to the eu budget -- contributor to the eu budget. losing the u.k. will hit germany particularly hard. and theresa may's conservative party, and in a certain extent the popular press, there are people that think the u.k. should not have to pay anything to leave. theresa may will have to face down those critics. softisks being seen to be
if she agrees to pay too much. julie: as we get into this triggering, who has the upper hand? both sides have a significant amount to lose. emma: absolutely. i would not like to see who has the upper hand. you can look at the expertise, the size of the teams involved. the u.k. services are smaller since the 1930's. under present we have 27 countries with a huge experience in negotiating such a deal. both sides have a lot to lose. julie: have to leave it there. thank you so much. emma the biggest week in tv is back.
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julie hyman. "bloomberg markets." this is"bloomberg markets." --this is "bloomberg markets." all three major averages up with the s&p 500 leading gains. let's go to abigail doolittle starting with the automakers. abigail: look at the strengths we are seeing through the auto stocks. general motors having its best day since february 14. an investorejected from david einhorn. it had to do with creating a second class of common shares that could boost shareholder value by $38 million. , shareholders seem to like the rejection. ford is up.-- this after the company says they will put $1.2 billion in two michigan plans.
tesla on pace for its best three-day streak since april 2016. we hopped into the bloomberg. this. look at this is a longer-term chart of tesla. it is really range bound. a battle between the balls and the bears. right now it seems that investors are more bullish than not. it remains to see if these shares can break above resistance. this could move to the upside. only time will tell. turning to flip-flopping on the day. the 10-year yield flipping between green and even, now we are seeing bonds selloff. option, five-year at 1:00. this should pressure bonds to
some degree. this is unclear. ran we havether been looking at a good deal. this is the 10-year over the last six months. we see the big backup and rates after the election. between 2.3%raded and 2.6%. it is unclear what is next. the 10-year yield below that 50 day moving average in blue, it may suggest rates could move to the downside. bonds could be set to rally. time will tell. julie: thank you. we want to update you on this scottish parliament vote to have a second referendum. ross-thomas addicted, the u.k. government says there will be no negotiations with scotland over referendum. the focus is on brexit talks
with the european union. the u.k. government repeating now is not the time for that scottish referendum. let's go to an optimistic town struck in hong kong. what he sees out of the white house amid so much gridlock. >> tax reform is on the agenda. i think there are a natural market reforms, monetary reform, budgets. there is a lot going on. the question is how to get it going. there is a lot of agreement between the congress and administration. i think there is a good possibility. >> how high is the kernel now for tax reforms -- the hurdle now for the tax reforms? >> tax reform is always difficult. it is complicated.
there is more agreement between the congress and the administration that there has been for a long time. there are differences that people focus on. but that is the difference that is promising. think of theu trump administration's economic policies so far? >> it is just beginning. i focus a lot on the regulation issues. the executive orders have rolled back some regulations but i don't think were necessary. related to the actions they can take on the congressional review act, and the trade issues are front and center in many things. some discussion on how to renegotiate nafta is in question how that is going to occur. we don't know. the emphasis is to try to make the trade agreement better. >> we don't know what's
president trump wants out of the fed -- what president trump wants out of the bad. does -- the fed. almost a more strategic fed. it is just then describing their policy so it is clear to people. congress is interested in that. they have legislation that goes in that direction. janet yellen has talked about that. there is a sense that they will get back to normal, then we can operate in the good ways that we have in the past, the 1980's and 1990's. >> that was john taylor from hong kong earlier today. investors are not necessarily counting on the reality of tax reform. the proof is in the data. surgeddman stocks index
as much as 14% after the election. it is now down to .8%. -- 2.8%. you go beneath the surface. if you look at stocks, they have shrugged a little bit at the health care failure. not this group. joe: that was a lightning rod for the markets. yesterday carrying over, we saw weakness. it has been down 2.8% in march. it erased its postelection game. -- gain. donald trump was talking about his phenomenal tax plan. this was on fire. everybody wanted a piece of the companies in this index. now it is coming off. you have to determine which aspects of tax reform are likely to get through and either invest or watch sectors that will be most affected. in this case the most direct
effect of tax reform would be a simple cut of the tax rate, which would affect these companies. you have the border adjustment tax, which has been at the forefront of the gop tax plan. that may get cut back. that is one of the more controversial areas. retail, apparel and multi-line ,etail, abercrombie & fitch foot locker and things like that, what has happened is you saw a rise in the aftermath of the gop having their bill fell on friday. have the stocks that will help to fight tax reform and those that will be hurt -- helped by taxi from those that will be hurt. julie: as you say would these highly taxed companies, it is a
big beverages between -- divergence between these groups. why isn't there more concern overall? thati think the answer to comes from something outside of the election spectrum, which is earnings growth. we projected double-digit earnings growth for the year. there is this new groundswell of ,eople coming out saying buy so does not matter what happens with tax reform. that is maybe a little simplistic. you have to balance things out. ,n the absence of new headlines earnings growth, and we saw blockbuster consumer confidence today. there are arrows pointing up. julie: when you talk about retailers and the rally they have had in that consumer
confidence number, that would indicate the rally continuing for the stoxx. stocks. we talked to the ceo of jcpenney, they look to traditional brick-and-mortar retail, it is a little shaky. this does not mean up up and away. joe: you have to strip out the individual drivers for these companies. you have the ceo is going to washington to plead their case. the collapse of brick-and-mortar and the companies that are doing better because of online retailing, that is a different story they will be weighing. when you're talking about gauging these tax reforms in the probability, sudden reactions as soon as they had my hits, --
the headline hits, emerging markets are the area to watch. an important story to watch is the companies that will benefit from repatriation tax cut. these companies that store a bunch of cash overseas that they are reluctant to bring back, that could be another pillar of strength. it is under discussed. it is hard to find a proxy. you have to look at individual companies. julie: thank you so much. appreciate it. let's turn to first word news this afternoon. mark: the trump administration is leading the push to derail the united nations conference that seeks a legally binding ban on nuclear weapons. nikki haley, ambassador to the u.n., asked a group of u.s. allies to object.
the dakota access pipeline is now fully operational. a court filing by energy transfer partners, the company behind the $3.8 billion pipeline, says construction is completed and crude can start flowing. tests anded months of demonstrations by native americans and environmental activists. last month the trump administration approved the controversial keystone xl pipeline from canada into the u.s. critical to returning the nation to the top of the global stage, the national front party presidential candidate defended or flagship campaign promise today. >> acting on the currency would allow us to start conquering the world again to be competitive again, and get rid of the eu rules dragging on our economy.
we can start creating jobs again. for months and years it has been more concerned about deflation. mark: french elections are able 23rd and may 7 -- april 23 and may 7. united nations calls it the largest humanitarian crisis in seven years. three african nations, south sudan, somalia, and nigeria are on the brink of famine. 16 million people are at risk of dying within months. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. julie: thank you. tesla got a big vote of confidence. we will dig into what this means for their model three launch. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ julie: this is "bloomberg markets." i am julie hyman. let's take a look at the turkish lira, which is having a sharp reaction to the news that a senior executive at one of their largest state-owned banks was arrested in the united states. this executive has been accused of conspiring with an iranian turkish terrorist that is waiting charges that he used his company to circumvent sanctions on iran. his reaction seems to be to that headline. we will keep you updated. we are watching tesla. shares moving higher today after
the chinese internet giant took a 5% stake in the carmaker. that makes it a top five shareholder. tesla raises money for the launch of its lower-priced tesla three later this year. why would they be interested in taking this kind of stake? >> it is an interesting stake. they have their own interest in electric cars. this is a sizable investment for them. it is interesting to see a chinese company saying they want a piece of an american technology company. julie: does this have any implications? without tesla announced lands to raise capital -- we know tesla announced plans to raise capital. 5%,f they are in there for they may be in for another few
more percent later. the most important thing with this story is the cash flow. how much runway do they have? it will matter if they can actually sell these. they have to make the model three first. we will see what the deposit is and how many people like the car. can they get there from here? in the last quarter, the company has $3.4 billion in cash. they raised another $2 billion. they have about $5 billion. they have announced plans to spend $2.5 billion for july. they might have plans for about that much going forward. throughrter they burned $1 billion. that is in one quarter. if they accelerate that with capital expenditures, we can see they have the cash flow they are unable to make a lie. this might not be enough runway.
as certain point, tesla does not have analysts, it has fans. the fan base buying the stock, every piece of news for tesla seems a little better. time, thesee same cash burn concerns are not new. tesla keeps managing to pay their bills. >> they are doing a production run like they have never done before. they're adding this tire fire of solarcity to the balance sheet of tesla. that is a great concern. julie: have to leave it there. thank you. or johnson talking tesla. we will be right back.
we have some of the comments ahead of her speech. she is not speaking about monetary policy. she is talking about pockets of persistently high u.s. unemployment. she is talking about education and worker development. she says the job market has improved substantially since the recession, and overall the u.s. economy is recovering. we will review any further commentary from that speech as it is burnett to the markets -- pertinent to the markets. this is from the text of her speech. says that itich tells the story, not a chosen narrative. whether donald trump reflation is in danger if not dead regards to the fixed income market. >> there was probably a little too much excitement initially.
you saw charge breakdown. everything will get pushed one way or the other too far. spread, youat that are close to the average. we talk about animal spirits, are they actually going to put their money into new investments in the united states? >> they always have. if we look at the history overtime, we don't say this time is different. those are the four scariest words on wall street. we look at a whole bunch of different series. you may not remember this, but i spent 18 years as an industrialist analyst. i have watched this forever. forever is a long time. seen it not play out. every indicator i look at suggest we are looking at economic growth for the next
three to six months. francine: how can you say they always have? a lot of companies give back to shareholders in terms of dividends and share buybacks and are sitting on a lot of cash. a lot of these companies did not feel strong enough, did not feel the environment was well enough for them to give back. tobias: the data is not on your side. everybody talks about buybacks instead of capex. the only reason they are down is because of energy. i love the narrative. tobias.orry about that is what my family calls me. announcement by ford today. a major investment in three michigan plants. jobs toe enough real
keep his base happy? tobias: i cannot speak for the president or his days. -- base. i'm canadian. i can say he is actually not my president. the notion that we will fix all of our issues on jobs through .he investments that is unlikely. i think there will be job growth continuing. will they all the manufacturing jobs in michigan? probably not. tom: help me with the top line, which links to nominal gdp. this is the animal spirit of america. average60% nominal gdp through the beginning of the crisis. it is not come back. 3.5%is roughly a statistic. the president wants to get back
to hear. do you have an indication that we get a combination of real growth and inflation on top of that to get to the animals. everybody desires? >> i think we stake closer to the growth rate. we are looking at nominal gdp growth in the 4% area. it is tough to get to 6%. we are at full employment. it is really hard no matter what stimulus boost to the economy, how are you going to get to six point growth? the trade deficit is going to widen. tom: can your optimism worked with a sub five gdp? tobias: i agree that we will have a tough time getting to 6%. we will get to 5%. we were not far away from it with the significant drop in the energy sector.
it is not going to their gangbusters environment. that is difficult to achieve. that was tobias levkovich. that was earlier this morning on bloomberg television. janet yellen was preparing to speak in washington. she has begun. she is speaking before a community group. she says challenges remain in the u.s. labor market, including concentrations of elevated joblessness in poor and minority communities. she is not speaking on monetary policy. a quick reminder, you can catch janet yellen all of our interviews on the bloomberg. you can find breaking news and related accounting. this is bloomberg. ♪
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president trump's first 100 days in office. the top stories we're watching. demise of gop obamacare repeal. lead to aattle could government shutdown. ford motor company investing $1.2 billion in three michigan factories. it has earned the company praise from president trump. it has been in the works for a while with the united workers association. president trump making steps to lessen the coal industry. he is expected to sign order to reverse his predecessor's border. some analysts question if it will lead to new jobs in coal country. alix steel will speak to continental resources, the president, jack stark, coming up. ♪