tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg March 30, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT
guns, a significant improvement from the february number, that is that pmi data the one more looked at? >> 51.8 is a good number. the last time we were this high , higher than 51 point eight, so a near five-year high for the manufacturing index. it points to the moderate increase in manufacturing sentiment. in february, 51.8 now in march, 51.3 in january. it backs up the early indicators , satellite manufacturing index, 51.8. rishaad: it is strange how this non--official data tracks.
it is actually backing up the state numbers. >> yes, they may be accurate. it is from the national bureau of statistics. in march, the numbers in the pmi upwards because of the distortions from the lunar new year holiday. aberration, but a positive sign for authorities trying to put some stability into this economy. were speaking to some clever people at the credit suisse conference. what is the general consensus of where the chinese economy goes from here? is it all being managed? >> again, it's not the most exciting word, but the one word i kept hearing was stability, and that is what the authorities have done, create stability
through accommodative policies to get activity going, especially construction and housing, even though some cities have increased curbs. if you look at the nonmanufacturing pmi and 55.1. we should not call it the services pmi because it includes services and construction, and everything that is nonmanufacturing, and what has bolstered the nonmanufacturing pmi is construction. the construction sub index for february was 60.1, leading the drive for that nonmanufacturing pmi. 55.1 in march is the highest since may 2014, so the property and construction sector shows you that some of the policy, the accommodative policy, to put the floor on the sinking economy has worked. haidi: is it going to stay accommodative though?
hearing the policy rhetoric, up these to amp supply-side reforms and deleveraging seems to be the key focus, doesn't it? saideryone i talked to that even the central bank governors said this deleveraging and weaning china off the credit binge is a medium-term process. you have to put that stability in place in the economy before you can start really working on those reforms, but keep in mind this is a highly politically charged year, so political reforms are dangerous. rishaad: let's go back to the nonmanufacturing survey. actually, you should put it into context of the services because construction is that huge. it is suggesting it is all about fiscal stimulus bill, isn't it? right. you are
and that is the old tried and true -- that they have weaned themselves off from that. >> i think services are underrepresented in these surveys, broad and underreported, tax reasons, whatever i'm a so we can see clearly that construction has index.stalwart of this what we need to do is dig down into the numbers and see how much those financial services and other services are contributing to the stability. rishaad: right. thanks for that. we are waiting for reaction from this number here in hong kong. here is david. the transmission effect, data out of china into the markets, especially if you are a bull in the commodities. recession across manufacturing in china come this is where we are.
when people are talking about the reflation trade is losing steam when you look at the u.s., well, it is happening in china. that is a big story do want to follow closely. everything else in asia depends on what is happening here and on this chart. the euro.e a look at told you solike i sort of thing. we had some dovish comments on the ecb, the qe program expected to extend into 2018, 1.9% inflation was the estimate in germany. it is down to 1.5 percent. have a look at the broader space mixed the region, next pictur picture. dollar-yen about 111. you have malaysia, singapore,
mixed picture. it is a stronger dollar story. not a lot but poised for one of the best quarters in asia in a sense, thea strict best quarter for asia excluding japan going back to 2010. taiwan opening up. this will be an interesting marketwatch. a lot of earnings coming through, the currency is on a tear. there is influence into taiwan. there we go. here is your index. taiwan.the inflows into you are looking at a six-month chart. are accumulation in inflows, 5.6 billion for taiwan. that has led to currency strength. the best quarter for the taiwan dollar in nine years as we flirt
with this 10,000 level here on the index. at some point, the good thing becomes the bad. yet, we will leave it there. haidi: i will take it from here. let's get the first word news with paul allen. the japanese prime minister has criticized toshiba saying he can't see who is in charge. he said toshiba needs to sort itself out, although it is impossible to know the size of the task without confirming the loss at the westinghouse unit. he added that toshiba must improve its finances over the long term and says he does not see the company going bankrupt. china confirmed that president xi jinping will meet president trump next week in florida, saying it will be an "new starting point for relations." he will take part in talks at mar-a-lago on thursday and
friday. it is the first face-to-face encounter amid rising tensions over territory, trade, and north korea. the white house says they will discuss issues of mutual concern. the south african rand extending losses with president jacob zuma firing his finance minister after meeting key figures in pretoria. the dismissal comes amid an increasingly stormy relationship. had accused gordon of undermining his authority and ordered him home from investor roadshows in the u.k. and u.s. japan has registered its first back-to-back inflation rise in more than a year, cpi excluding fresh fruit grew at 0.2% on year for february. economists see the inflation at 1%, but that would be half the boj target. was 2.8%, unemployment in february, better than the 3% forecast. global news 24 hours a day
powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am paul allen. one of our top stories, south korean former president park geun-hye arrested on suspicion of a bribery and abuse of power, it is the latest scandal involving big business and millions of dollars. what have we found out today? >> late last night, early this morning about 3:00 a.m., the arrest warrant was approved by the court, so park geun-hye is now in detention, where she will be until she is indicted. charges against her, and then presumably you will have a trial pretty quickly after that. jump in.just want to there is precedent for this kind of thing, but there is different
allocations. >> it is not unusual for a south korean leader to be accused of corruption or their family. in fact, everyone over the past few decades has cnet be the case. this time what is different is the amount of public anger you saw, millions of people coming into the streets. you saw her approval rating dropped to 4%, a terribly low number. the question is what happens in the election coming up on may 9. does all this public anger translate into real reform. conglomeratesun have been dominating korea's economy for decades. , and you can see the expectations are hopes given the gains in korean assets. getting as the latest on park arrest.'s flying high with the biggest profit in five years, what sent
haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. china's biggest oil and gas producer planning to raise spending for the first time in five years. this after posting its lowest profit. we are talking petrochina boosting spending 11% to $28 billion in 2017 after net income fell for a third year, down some 78%. plan to boostooc
capital expenditure after posting lower profit last year. haidi: the once highflying chinese solar company says it debt.arted thre to repay a plunge in stock price wiped out half its fell you. will noter says he contest efforts to disqualify him from having a role in future management. facebook says the founder of oculus has left the company. palmer lucky was the face of the virtual reality unit since 2014. the company began distancing itself from him after reports that he financed a group creating anti-hillary clinton means you'd he apologize come aen in february january lost court case accused of stealing code. asian equities are mixed
on this final day of what some have called a stellar quarter. the regional index seeing its biggest quarterly gain in five years. theing us from singapore is global chief investment officer asset management. of 2017,at the start the consensus call was hired treasury yields, but it seems like things are going in reverse. i want to bring up this chart. bloomberg. on your if you look at break even as a measure of inflation expectation on the market, they went up 120 basis points and it looks like the market has changed its mind. is there still momentum left in this trump trade or reflation trade, or is it deflated? >> good morning. i would say that we had a strong
quarter, probably surprised in q4. since then, we have had consolidation. before theon numbers u.s. election had started to pick up, and so what we have seen since then is stronger those inflation expectations coming off a bit .nd the market is adjusting in terms of policies, we have not had anything get in terms of tax cuts or any infrastructure came during the election, so we are in this pause mode, and really people are waiting for policy to start moving possibly in q3. haven't had policy.
if anything, we have indications he might have trouble pushing policies through if the health care bill was a litmus test. if you look at the reflation trade outside the u.s., different drivers, and arguably better fundamentals, no? >> yeah, no, i would agree. the biggest surprise during this quarter is how strong europe has suddenly picked up, the pmi surveys throughout europe have really picked up, and that momentum certainly in europe is starting to persuade investors that they should be allocating capital there. for example, we had underweight position in europe for some time, and even we found ourselves over the quarter moving towards neutral, possibly waiting for some of that uncertainty around the impending elections to get through before
we took a more serious look at europe, but europe has been the most encouraging market so far this year. rishaad: having a look at this part of the world, take a look at the, well, stories of the quarter so far. how have you been investing in the asia-pacific and how have you done? >> absolutely. asia is picking up momentum. andmber, northern asia markets, china, korea, and even japan are sensitive to pick up in global growth conditions. with the combination of the u.s., europe starting to reacceleration, obviously emerging markets have gone from negative growth to positive. all of those things are gathering momentum for a pickup in global growth conditions, and
the north asia rather than the in asean markets markets have been left behind as a result of that, so going to haidi's point earlier, the reflation trade is alive and kicking. it is not reflected in the u.s., but reflected in other markets. rishaad: let's have a look at csi 300, having a look at that and what has happened in the last three months. 12.6%.r staples of market over all 3.8% in this quarter. japan,ok at the msci ex 13.66 percent to return in the quarter with information sohnology gaining 18% there, the thing is you are saying it is not a trump rally, it is
actually a fundamentals rally is what you have been saying? >> absolutely. , possibly before the brexit vote, our economic indicators have started to pick up, suggesting that after many years of mediocre economic growth, we started to see as we went into the u.k. brexit vote into the u.s. election, the growth had already started pick up, and markets were uncertain and thepect to trump u.s. election, but as soon as that uncertainty went, people go back to fundamentals. one of the small indicators i was looking at doing the u.s. election is a few days before the u.s. election if trump was winning in the polls or was ahead in the polls, the market would drop back.
certainly when clinton was ahead, the market would rally, and what we saw subsequently was the market just going up with victory, so to meet it reinforced that what we have been seen before the election was starting to reflect itself in stock prices and the fixed income market. there, efgz afzal asset manager joining us from singapore. right, we have china's bad loan challenge. is it finally easing up? better than expected profits big we look ahead to the banks and the last day of trading for this quarter. ♪
up markets in china and hong kong as well. taking a look at premarket this session, it is interesting because we have these expectations going forward to the next quarter that chinese shares mainland might be tried i trading sideways. a lot of analyst said we might get a gain of less than 3% when it comes to the shanghai certainlymid june, underperforming the rest of the asian emerging-market rally we have seen. 3300 is where the majority of analysts we have spoken to see china composite, but banking in focus this week. is the stock to watch today because we have earnings reporting anank unexpected increase in full gear profit, reining in costs, and the bad loan ratio stabilizing
come income at $40.4 billion, better than expected. in thatk is up 18% h-share come actually underperforming the rest of its banking peers. rishaad: right, looking at airlines, looking at three biggest airlines and china coming out with much better than expected profit, worse than expected profit, but actually still profit. this is the eighth consecutive quarter. what we do have is weakness for error china and chinese during, but china southern the beneficiary after american theines took that stake in asian carrier. this chart shows you what has been going on. that's what we have so far. watching those airlines as the trading day gets underway. chinese airline
rishaad: 9:29 in hong kong. of victoria peak, the start of the trading day. i am rishaad salamat coming to you from our bloomberg asian headquarters. haidi: rather of skewered there. i haidi lun in sydney. as we head into the china open for this last trading day of the quarter, it is interesting looking at these forecasts for the next three months. fund managers and analysts seeing a gain of 2.8%, and tightened liquidity onshore will be the main catalyst when it comes to volatility in these
mainland markets. rishaad: absolutely coming getting reaction to this china services data, china manufacturing as well, 51.8, the highest since april 2012. that should give, well, some the opportunity to charge out of the gates, but futures aren't telling that at the moment. nonmanufacturing a bit stronger also than had been thought as well. these are numbers for this month. let's get straight to the open. juliette: if you have a look at the weather outside, i don't won to come out of the gate today. some weakness on the downside, gm and function, -- gm and function we were expecting to see downside coming through from those markets. this is the final trading day of what has been a stellar quarter, so no real surprise that we see money coming off the table with
that regional stocks gaining 9.7% so far this quarter. the nikkei up .6%. we have yen weakness, but also that strong cpi number, the first back-to-back cpi reading in over a year, some weakness in the other markets, malaysia down off,and the asx 200 coming but yesterday closing at a two-year high, next movement in asian currencies, but mostly the currencies under pressure. if we look at some of the commodities. gmm,howing on the but holding $50 a barrel. could see a turnaround coming through in some of those players. some stocks we are watching on the screen. that short china, hsbc has
raised its age shares to hold. estimates,gs matched the eight-shares have been raised to buy. air china coming under pressure in the early hong kong session, but said it would spend $10 billion on planes in three years, so those stocks will be watched in the session today. rishaad: thank you for that. let's get to first word news headlines and over to sydney to join paul allen. china's gauge of factory activity has risen to the highest level since 2012, 51.8 for the manufacturing pmi, slightly above the estimate. the reading offers more evidence of gathering momentum in the chinese economy here pmi also rising to a two-year high, higher than expected as well at
55.1. former south korean president park geun-hye has been arrested on suspicion of corruption. the court issued the warrant after prosecutors argued that park geun-hye might destroy evidence. they claim she pressured big business to pay millions of dollars in return for government favors. park was taken to a detention center where her friend and jay y. lee are being held. president trump has warned the right-wing freedom caucus to get in line, saying it threatens to bring down the entire republican agenda if it does not. he tweaked to this morning after the conservative group help to the rail the repeal of the so-called obamacare health act. to president from promised fight the freedom caucus come if necessary. space x has reached a milestone, we flying a rocket that had already been in space for the
first time ever. the falcon nine rocket blasted off from florida with the communications satellite onboard and and landed on a floating barge in the atlantic. it is an important moment for spacex and elon musk who is on a mission to bring the cost of spaceflight down. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am paul allen. top three airlines reported a combined profit the biggest in five years, even if the weaker yuan eroded earnings. tom mackenzie is in shanghai. let's start off with air china. how did they do and what are their plans? they did come out with reasonably good numbers, but worse than thought. that's right. net revenues for air china missed estimates. i came away from a fascinating conversation with the chief
financial officer for air china. i spoke to him about a number of issues. in terms of air china, they were pressured on the weakness in the renminbi, particularly the fourth quarter, and they have tried to work down some of their u.s. dollar denominated debt. that will be a continuing pressure for them. passenger yields have come down and around 4.4% for china, then there is their stake in cathay pacific which posted its first loss in eight years. they have a 30% stake in cathay pacific, so that is something i asked about, what impact that was having on revenues and what it meant for the restructuring. he sits on the executive board of cathay pacific could take a listen. involves aructuring 40% cost reduction over three years. will17 alone, 20% of costs be cut, so through an aggressive
program like this, they will be able to recover. i don't think these difficulties will last three years. i am still confident and cathay pacific. saying that the worst is over for cathay pacific, saying 2016 was the worst year and things will improve. no plans to change there stake holding in cathay pacific. fromhina also benefited the weaker oil price last year as well. in terms of expansion plans, they outlined plans to buy 155 new planes in the next three 50% foroughly between airbus and boeing, introducing new routes between shanghai and barcelona and beijing and zürich, to take advantage for the increased demand for business travel between china and europe. haidi: this aggressive capacity seems to be continuing for all the chinese airline's.
what are the risks they are potentially facing here? the oil price remains a risk, a key risk a, according to analysts, as does the continued renminbi weakness. we spoke to peter hartman sent from the aviation center, and he outlined some of the key risks facing china's airlines. take a listen. getting ustailwind from low fuel prices, that inherently has a risk. encouragesl it capacity into markets that are highly competitive. at the same time, there is the danger of taking the football to the pedal and keeping unit costs down. you have the double whammy of lower yields and higher costs. china cfo's said now was not the time to start hedging oil. that is something china's airlines do not do. he said there is too much
volatility in the markets and pointed to what is happening with u.s. shale production. , theyms of the renminbi have reduced their dollar denominated debt from 70% to 49%. the target is 35% and say they are making progress on that. in terms of revenues, regionally, they have seen an improvement in u.s. and asia, weakness in europe and of it expects european china revenue streams will improve in 2017, hence the partnership with lufthansa, that kicks off on the first of april and say they may also consider further code sharing deals with other international airlines. for now, no plans to buy additional stakes, but we will have more on this interview with the cfo from air china coming up. haidi: can't wait to see the rest of that chat you have there. tom mackenzie, our china correspondent. winning over the world, why chinese stocks have had a strong
haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. the chinese smartphone maker once compared with apple is growing and says global revenue should top $15 billion this year. spent 500 million on india since 2015 and the cofounder is pledging a similar investment in the years to come. xiaomi once ruled the roost in china, but has been eclipsed by domestic rivals and is now looking towards india as global demand slows. apple is turning its attention to india, said it is ready to this summer.one se production will begin in june in bangalore. it also says apple could make
other iphones if the right tax incentives are given and more relaxed regulations about sourcing are put into place. reports say the government is considering apple's request. againsts had a win banks over mobile payments. the banks sought to negotiate collectively over apple paid in exchange for access to the iphones communication attendant. the regulator dismissed the banks claims saying the formation of a negotiating block would not reduce competition. right, the msci china gains has posted its best start to the year and a decade, but the benchmark has underperformed. let's discuss that with our next guest, and our bloomberg asian
emerging-market stocks editor. the csi roughly what 300 was. if you look at the msci asia-pacific index excluding japan, 13.6%, a clear laggard. why? >> when we look at fund flows and asset allocations, there is a big weighting of money in developed markets, even though we saw that slight rotation into emerging markets. people are still hesitant about china. year, we could see renewed enthusiasm in china. regarding hong kong, you are seeing fund flows from southbound trade supporting the market. controls have been a big issue here, and something the chinese government has been clamping down on to we have a
chart showing that. how big a problem has this been for chinese investors trying to get their money out? investingbeen elsewhere, but within their own economy. wante chinese government to change or alter the household asset allocation and shifted from so overweight property h-shares, a-shares, so investors in mainland china look at equities as a long-term asset allocation. rishaad: it is a casino. >> at the moment. it is an emerging market, so there is the evolution of the market. >> we see that with h-shares, and considerable flows, almost a hedge against the yuan. we did see a flat quarter for a-shares. there is concern about government intervention. do think this market will pick up and mainland investors will
put their money back in? it tends to be a momentum driven market. >> small-cap names have tended to outperform. southbound trades, typical blue-chip names, but we're finding the yield story in china. you never thought you would look to china for income. rishaad: there have been some surprise dividends come in. well from these companies from a foreign investor perspective, even if msci includes h shares, and for the local mainland investors. it is a shift in mindset about equities rather than growth, growth, growth. >> do think it is becoming less of a speculative market? wouldhink the regulators like the mindset to change, and there is messaging coming through about what the market should do in terms of what kind of stocks you should buy, not just a small ones. , you get askedd
this question all the time, and what is the answer -- why are h shares at this discount to a-shares, and wife has that valuation gap not come together? a-shares is aith lot of them are state-owned companies. not just that, but as we saw the state owned dairy company, you have companies seen as being subservient to state interest rather than shareholder interests, and on the other hand with private companies, you can have very wiped out in minutes. rishaad: as we saw the other day, indeed. of that is a bet on that gap being close? >> it is about fundamentals. when you look at the names listed, the chinese names, in hong kong are domestic chinese place. of honge only a handful
kong centric names in the hong kong index itself. it is positive over the long-term as we see the growth of china and will show through the indices. wheren you have companies you feel they have exciting growth, but is it 100% reliable growth? >> that is what we do with research and due diligence. in a market like china, you have to be called the center of this. something, ok,e we talked about this trump trade going on, this reflation rally. i had a guest on who said it is really one based on fundamentals when you look globally. reflation trade is often correlated with cheap value, low quality names rallying, so the unwinding of the reflation trade benefits investors like us who look for high-quality fundamental stories. in terms of reflation, there is
a fine line between reflation and stagflation. we are not exposed to the reflation trade. where the risk for china is short-term is the risk of overheating because it has been led by the industrial side. we had pmi for manufacturing and nonmanufacturing good nonmanufacturing, not just services, but construction is a big part of that, and construction is 60 on the pmi, showing you how we are driving growth in the same manner we have done for the last 10 years. >> i think it is more target growth, infrastructure spending, but more targeted. infrastructure, that's similar to what we had in 2008-2009. is a fine balance between stabilizing growth and letting sentiment drop in having a situation where we have higher inflation because of fiscal spending. it seems the economy will continue to muddle through, but
it is a stabilizing growth message that keeps coming out. >> what we have seen as the government keen to tighten monetary policy in certain ways to try and curb the risk of asset bubbles coming from that money flowing. how much, we saw money market rates, open market operations twice this year, and when we did a survey, we saw people expecting another two this year. how much of that is a risk to this recovery and the equity market, h-shares or a-shares? hawkish, thetill pboc, probably more hawkish than the federal reserve, but we think they were not tighten traditionally. they will use different tools this time around come and what will be key for china and not just the msci including a-shares, but the announcement in the people's congress. >> do think they will put a-shares in? >> it is looking that way.
if you look at the steps put down two years ago, it seems to be. ashaad: we have not had major crisis since then. yesterday we were heading for the biggest fall since december, only a 1% fall. that's incredible. about india. it is an expensive looking market. what is your view? >> long-term is really attractive, and with modi winning, that is positive. he will be concentrating on implementing reforms as opposed to gather attention or a positive vote, and also because of the increase in power in the upper house, it bodes well for implementing reforms, so it is still attractive. the d-monetization had a knock on effect short-term. it should work. he is trying to make the informal economy formal. -90 7% ofthey got 96%
those notes back, which shows you it may have been the wrong targeted form of reform there could of just putting it out there. >> we could see more consolidation and unity in india. it will be one unified taxation system. chinese inead of the recognizing nonperforming loans, which is positive. rishaad: china market next quarter. >> it will be underpinned by support and fund flows will come through, and the results have been good so far, so expect china to continue on the path it has been on. a-shows will come back too. rishaad: thank you so much indeed. coming up, singapore looking for tieups abroad despite increasing resistance to consolidation. we have the details on the way. ♪
rishaad: i am i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. the singapore stock exchange may be looking for foreign time of despite the global crackdown on consolidations, sources saying that sgi are holding exploratory talks. what do we know so far? toldnda: welcome we are that they have been talking to partners over the past few , the cmehe nasdaq group and others, looking at a range of options, possible stakes sales. havee familiar say they
not hired advisers and no formal decisions have been made about where it will go from here. it is an interesting development and comes at a time when cross-border deals face massive scrutiny. of the deutsche boerse was blocked. x has to explore options because rivals are trying to consolidate. it has been a decade since we saw the last international deal to combine forces -- boerses. other attempted deals were either blocked or failed, so let's see whether sg expert seats with this tie up or not. proceeds with this tie up or not. rishaad: cross-border deals come
with huge benefits as well, so what can sgx bring to the partnership? sgx with give the european exchange of stronger footing and asia as the world is fighting for capital. sgx is based in singapore, but it's offices, the largest in southeast asia with an average daily value of shares of 850 million dollars, of percent from year ago, but still down more than $1 billion since 2013. at the moment, singapore has an existing relationship with the nasdaq. forried to acquire the asx $6.5 billion and would have created the world's fifth-largest exchange, but that wasn't to be, so maybe, hopefully, lucky this time around. rishaad: cheers.
♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: we begin this evening brexit from prime minister theresa may, she formally began to withdraw from the european union. we focus on the lisbon treaty and the arduous process of the arduous process of negotiations, she outlined her vision for britain's departure, they would -- indicating the u.k. would seek a hard exit and leave the e.u. single market. the prime minister described it as a historic moment from which there can be no turning back. >> britain is leaving the