tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg April 5, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
this is the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ nejra: we will take you from new york to london in the next hour and covering stories out of bogotá. amman, and there are the top stories from around the world. european stocks bounce around while chinese shares surged higher, will the trend continue? who is speak to a man overweight in europe and sees value in the continent. senior executives in banking are heading for the doors of deutsche bank after bonuses are cut. other bankers are trying to head to the exits in london before brexit becomes official. we will look at what this means for the financial businesses. columbia making an effort to diversify its economy away from
commodities, the south american nation having success? we will speak to the incoming codirector of their central bank. let's look at where european equities are trading right now. and a 30 minutes until the close with a lift in european shares, ,he stoxx 600 up to 3/10 of 1% outperforming our commodity producers and oil, and gas shares. stoxx 600 energy shares heading for the highest close since january. tracking what we have seen with oil price. earlier, wti and brent almost 1.5%, those gains have moderated a little since we got the oil inventory data but still fairly resilient. i want to show you this technical chart on brent crude, the global benchmark. it closed above the upper band technical indicator for the first time this year. this is generally viewed as a buy signal.
something to keep an eye on as we continue to the week and see if we can maintain the resilient in the oil price. read above $55 per barrel earlier in the session. , one stocksyngenta we are focused on in the european trade with 10 china when he eu antitrust approval for its $43 billion takeover of syngenta. one day after u.s. regulators gave their blessing. syngenta is up more than one person at the moment. it is approaching the china did a price, that in-flight with syngenta intraday in blue. across assets, a check in on this, more greens and reds in the equity space, the ftse 100 up 4/10 of 1% and spain's ibex up for terms of 1%. sterling up 3/10 of 1%. we saw this fight earlier on better than expected service pmi data.
euro off just 1/10 of 1%. and the fixed income space, generally seen a bit of a move out of the core bonds, particularly guilt and bonds with yields ticking slightly higher, the 10-year gilts yield in particular leading in terms of move upwards. gold off a little. metals big on the lme. u.s., the dow,he s&p 500, nasdaq trading higher. the dow up a tense of 1%, on paper, the best day since march 1, the less than the dow and s&p 500 put in record highs, lots of strength. the nasdaq, not only on pace to close at a record high but all-time high. that is true for the nasdaq 100 also. a rally after a stronger than expected adp report. all of this will mean that the willan mean hike rates, we
know more perhaps around that at 2:00 p.m. when the flm minutes come out to movers on the day, panera bread trading sharply higher, 14 -- 40% higher on the .ews jab is buying panera bread a 23.5% premium from thursday close when bloomberg news broke the story that panera bread was a takeover target. dunkin' donuts, not so much, down about 2%, on pace for its worst day since october of last year. not a takeover candidate, jennifer said the panera bread takeover makes sense despite the high valuation did she says the problem going forward in terms of other acquisitions, not a lot of acquirers out there, the big restaurant companies have other issues to struggle with. an interesting fact. turning to the energy complex, lots of strength.
crude trading higher by about 3/10 of 1%, up two days in a row to its highest level in about a month. despite the fact inventories report came in a little bit disappointing, relative to expectations. that strength is helping to of the e&p couplings, pointing petroleum, up 1%, neighbors industries, up 4.5%. let's look any bloomberg at these records for the nasdaq and the nasdaq 100. a very interesting divergence building on the year, in blue up top and quite, the nasdaq and nasdaq 100, up more than 12% at the year. down here in orange and yellow, the s&p 500 and the dow up 5%, 6% on the year. interesting to see how that divergence plays out as the year goes on. nejra: it is, thank you. rating news on the bloomberg -- breaking news on the bloomberg, south african parliament
commenting in a statement, saying that a this debate is set for april 18 after earlier in the day, president jacob zuma had survived calls to resign, the anc would not vote against him in a no-confidence motion. we have a date set for that debate. looking at the rand, it has been weakened today after it briefly recovered in yesterday's session. let's taketh market, a closer look at how european shares are shaping up right now. in comparison with u.s. stocks. running us from london is robert buckland, the citigroup chief global equity strategist. great to have you on the program . you have upgraded europe to over weight, why is that? >> our models have been saying good things about continental europe for some time. we were being held back by fears
of an adverse outcome in the french election. those fears are subsiding. we have taken that risk on and on overweight today. nejra: robert, you did say in march, mid-march, if we were to get a marine le pen when, the french lenders would lose a quarter of their market value. i have a chart, you cannot see it, it shows that french banks were trailing european peers, as we saw, the french franc blowout . that spread has tightened, and we have seen a little bit of recovery in terms of french banks versus the stoxx 600 banks index. what is your position now on french banks? the same, or have you changed that, given the news we had sent march 15 when you make that call? >> just as we have turned more positive on europe today, we have turned more positive on european banks, including french
franc. -- french banks. all of them had political risk a month ago or two months ago which is not following through in a way we may feared earlier this year. x-unitedyour call is e kingdom, is this on fundamental, a current stance, or more looking to the future? >> more a positive call on continental europe rather than a negative call on the u.k.. we were overweight in the u.k., doing better than continental europe, today we change that and have expressed a preference for continental europe over the u.k. . not usually bearish on the u.k., the opportunities are better. nejra: how do you avoid the -- vonnie: how the you avoid the crowded trades in continental europe? >> the great thing about continental europe, it has had this risk factor over it. hard to find credit rates anywhere in europe, apart from the bond market. within the equity market, close
into the asset class have been poor for a long time. we can see uncrowded trades everywhere. point,to pick up on that you commented that the apparent con we saw in stocks globally, masking a lot of action between industry groups. talk me through how you think that will play out, particularly as we get a lot of questions over the sustainability of the reflation trade. >> the reflation trade has been rolling over for the whole of the first quarter, components of that are bond yields are rising, they started to fall and the dollar was rising and has started to fall. oil price was rising but started to fall. all of those post-u.s. election reflation trades were rolling over in the first quarter of this year. from here, you have spoken about the oil price today. we think the reflation trade is
roughly where we want to be this year and are long most of the reflation trade and would recommend our client three engage in them. -- reengage in them. , you saiditical risk you estimated 20% chance of a marine le pen victory, not a huge chance. that could go to 10% of european ofcks -- wipeout 10% european stocks but if everything goes ok, we get through the election with macron elected, how much upside is that in europe and globally? to theestimates, back envelope numbers come you could enjoy a 5% pop in europe, if the markets do see a more conventional candidate wins which is one of the reasons we went overweight today, to capture that. vonnie: france with elections, italy as well. beyond political risk, what is the next biggest challenge to valuations in europe? we need earnings
delivery to come through. european earnings have been weak for some time. the economy has been weeks since the euro zone crisis in 2011-2012. we think we will see double-digit earnings growth this year but important we do not have adverse political outcomes. secondly important, the companies deliver on earnings. the risk is they do not do that but we think they will but a risk that they do not. you robertk buckland, chief global equity strategist at citigroup. great to have you. vonnie: let's get the first word news with courtney donohoe. >> and at 16 fighter jet crashed in the u.s. a few miles from going base andrews in maryland. that is the home of air force one. according to the air force, the pilot ejected safely and was picked up by helicopter. some homes were evacuated as precautionary measure. the part of an air national .uard unit in andrews
democratic senator jeff merkley held the floor for 15 hours to highlight the party's opposition to the supreme court nominee neil gorsuch its, accusing the judge of siding with corporations over people. mitch mcconnell says that he has votes to change senate rules and support the immigrant filibuster, a showdown could come tomorrow. syrian and russia denied there was a gas attack that killed at least 72 people. russia blamed the death on the rebels and said the syrian air force bond and ammunitions dump because the rebels were moving chemical reverends from a warehouse. -- chemical weapons from a warehouse. in russia, six people have been arrested on suspicion of recruiting terrorists. no word on if the rest are linked to the subway bombing in st. petersburg that killed 14 people. those arrested come from central asian countries that were once part of the soviet union. authorities said the suicide bomber responsible for the
bombing was from the central asian nation of cares extend -- global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. nejra: coming up, we will get insight on the oil markets from the chairman of pioneer natural resources after u.s. inventories came in about estimates. that is next. if you look at oil price, it is holding up. this is bloomberg. ♪
holding above $51 per barrel, brett above $54. alix steel is with the goldman sachs -- is at the goldman sachs imposing in new york. >> if there is one man you want to talk about oil inventories is scott sheffield the us to be the ceo of pioneer in that pioneer. -- ceo of pioneer. over 9ion in the u.s. million barrels per day, a 14 month high, sustainable and $50? >> yes, especially with the permian basin. 9.8.ime highs about we hit 9.7 in 2015. i expect it to keep climbing, primarily because of the activity in the permian basin. >> when do we get to 10? >> sometime in 2018. >> inventory build side, did you
get that from cushing and the overall inventory of a love imports coming into the u.s. or a weaker demand and strong production here? >> i still see strong demand, 1.5, 1.8 million barrels her day around the world growth. cushing is at an all-time high. inventory built was a surprise. the market is waiting for the may 25 meeting of opec and will trade sideways until may 25. >> if you look at differential, midland crude trading discount to cushing, there is a story that could be at the permian basin having a discount in oil so much in order to find buyers which implies a weaker demand portfolio. >> no, plenty of capacity to get the permian crude out. a lot of it is going overseas. we show exports of about a half million barrels per day, a -- down from about a million last week.
running one million barrels a day over the past eight to 10 weeks. >> why the discount to cushing? >> they cost about 250 to move it to the gulf coast. wtispread between brent and is -- and you will see more and more experts to asia -- exports to asia and south america overtime. >> when we talk about the permian, at what point in a bubble? i will so you crazy figures from the permian others, anchor should be selling for $175,000 to 220 thousand dollars per acre because it is so rich. what do you think of those violations? >> and the -- it depends on what oil pricing are using, you need $60, $70 long-term price deck to get that. did you dollars flat, $55 black, worth about $100,000 per acre at discounted at 10%. that is what you see a deals up
to $60,000 per acre, people can still make money, if it is worth $100,000 per acre. how fast do the drill of the zones? three zones up to 12 different zones. if they drill it up fast, i could see the numbers go up past $60,000 per acre. not much of my left for people to buy leases. the game is almost over. people will have to pay up or by companies to get that next location. >> where does the money go to next? >> i think it will stay in the permian. we got three former ceo starting up their own companies. >> nowhere to expand in the permian, how can they? >> you can buy if you are willing to pay higher dollar. if not, go boston, eagle first give. >> at $50, where the breaking point? at what price point willie kilby
l the rigl it kil count? >> if opec doesn't extend, the price could fall to $40 or below $40 which is where you will see cutback in the rig count. most permian couples are stable with low debt. i do not see a change in the permian rig count. below $40, companies will reduce the rig count. >> do you feel the players and shale have not redone their balance sheet and are in a better place, do you see the kind of leverage we saw two years ago? >> the majors have the highest debt in history. >> shale players were killed by leverage. >> not in the permian. everybody watch pioneer, we have zero debt, they saw the benefit of that.
others, they have all learned in this industry, we have been through five downturns in the last 25 years, they are happening quicker. people are saying, we have to run a low balance sheet. >> you can keep running production and survival lower oil prices with low balance sheet. what are your replacing when you export? >> right now, it is the refineries are importing heavy crude from saudi arabia, mexico, canada, venezuela. sweet crude. crude. exporting sweet defending on tax reform, we need refiners to redo the refineries and accept more sweet crude. without thing a large discount where they did in the past. -- to heavyge from crude a few years ago without that. you are relying on the export market, what areas can you export and what do you replace? >> not replacing anything, just
extra crude. >> you need refineries to switch to light or else -- >> they will always import heavy crude from those four countries. that is their only alternative until they can fix the refineries and start taking our domestic route. they can take it today. you will have a three dollar to four dollars to five dollar discount. we would rather export our crude versus them taking it. they can take it today by the economics for the refineries is not as good. >> opec, looking for the meeting at the end of may, you think they extend the cut, what happens to the price? >> it will move up a little bit and we will get the summer demand. that is stronger in the u.s. it served other countries around the world. generally, you see about a million barrel pickup in demand worldwide during the summer months. that will help.
i see the price moving up to $55 over two months or three months, then we have to watch the recovery of the permian and how fast it is growing. there has been some numbers coming out that we are growing at 60 thousand barrels to 80,000 barrels per month but we will not know for another good six months. >> a fun year. thank you so much. >> good to see you. >> i am goldman sachs asset management symposium with scott sheffield. back to you. nejra: thank you so much. ahead, what does the ceo of lloyd's of london told bloomberg about brexit? this is bloomberg. ♪
fact. inga: we have $40 billion of revenue, a major part of the financial center in london because a lot of that business comes directly into london. for us, brexit is impacting not only 5% of that. that is why we are setting up the -- that is only for 5% of our business. the rest will remain the same. she says the uncertainty in politics have benefited lloyd's of london with more people looking for insurance. look at where european markets are trading as we head to the close, raising earlier gains, pretty flat. this is bloomberg. ♪
not a lot of action in the equities. the stoxx 600 gained a little bit for some part of the session, up to 3/10 of a percent but we have erased those gains into the close with the german dax down 5%. a mixed picture. in the fx face, a stronger sterling. euro pretty much unchanged, up 1/10 of 1%. when it comes to the sovereign bond space, a little bit of a mixed picture. not a lot of movement. not a lot of movement and fx and bonds even though we got the adp number better than expected. movement and commodity with brent crude holding above $54 per barrel, a little bit brazilian as the oil inventory data at 3/10 of 1%, was gaining more than 1.5% earlier. metals, zinc rising on the london metal exchange.
stoxx 600, pretty much unchanged. .s we close these markets energy stocks outperforming at 6/10 of 1% on oil and gas shares headed to their highest close since january, following what is happening in the oil price. sterling giving for the first time -- gaining for the first time in three days. yields the 10-year gilts heading towards 1% of higher now. vonnie: breaking news, chief justice steve bannon has been removed from the national security council, a shakeup of the original council lineup. the realignment follows controversy over the original counsel lineup. the realignment has been put in the federal registry. steve bannon has been removed from the national security council. that is in a shakeup. the intelligence chief has been restored to the committee. let's get to abigail doolittle
for markets news. what is going on? .> a rally in stocks today just two weeks ago, more than two weeks ago, the worst selloff of the year. here is the worst selloff of 2017 which led to more weakness. on that, the s&p 500 fell below the 20 day moving average in blue. this was a concern to technical analysts. and yellow, the 50 day moving average, should investors have bought the dip? katie stockton this morning sent out a note, was expecting a near-term pullback but has been excellent on the near-term on the medium-term and long-term. she does think there could be more weakness, a pull back down to at least the 50 day moving average and yellow. she thinks because he the s&p 500 dropped to 22.80, a 5% move down from the peak on march 1. one reason katie stockton thinks
there could be some weakness for stocks, technology, that has been great out of the election and great this year, the top sector. when we look at -- this is not pulling up, i will do it here. 500 tech index out of the election. a beautiful uptrend. more recently, the area of congestion. this is called a broadening formation which represents uncertainty on the part of investors. typically it breaks the downside. the rsi or a momentum indicator, it had been in overbought territory, in red, now bearish, lower highs. it could suggest some weakness to the point of katie stockton, thinking that technology could bring a near-term move down. that is a look at some of what is happening from a more macro standpoint.
stocks of pullback despite the rally today. steve bannon has been removed from the national security council. this is according to a person familiar with the matter. who spoke with bloomberg and according to a regulatory filing and now in the federal register. a shakeup by the president who has removed his chief strategist, stephen bannon, the former executive chairman of breitbart news and has downgraded the role of his homeland security adviser, tom boxer. -- tom wasser after criticism from congress and washington foreign-policy establishment. the national intelligence director, dan coats, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, joseph dunford, they are regular attendees of the nsc's principal committee. steve bannon no longer on the national security council. nejra: interesting because steve bannon was supposed to be part of the delegation going with the
president to meet xi jinping this week. let's get and big changes at deutsche bank after it slashed bonuses for the second straight year. three senior executives have left. running us is our managing editor for finance in europe, the middle east, and africa. thank you for joining us. was the second year of bonus cap suspected -- bonus cuts suspected? >> yes, difficult for the banks and legacy issues they have dealt with. clearing most of those by the end of last year. cutting back on compensation. we are seeing now the effect that is having on employees in the way of potentially looking elsewhere where there will be more clarity for the longer term on compensation. nejra: is the concern that deutsche bank may struggle to attract talent? is that what the focus is? >> yes that is what we are
picking up from headhunters and people in the market. more people from deutsche bank picking up the phone and looking elsewhere. this is a result of the lack of clarity on compensation. it also, potentially, the business model that has been reviewed for the second time in more than under two years. the bank is finding where it is wanting to be. nejra: what does this mean for john's turnaround plan? verytaining key talent is important, particularly in businesses that rely very much on the t client relationships. so is capital and the shares. the share price being very strong, an indicator it will probably go well. nejra: another great story on the bloomberg today is with foreign bankers in the u.k. in the context of brexit.
tell us what you found? plans theess of the companies are making, some individuals putting their hands up and saying -- i am not quite sure where my job will be in a couple of years, can i go back to my home country and continue what i am doing now from their -- there? the result of a lack of clarity and visibility on what the banks will look like in several years. coupled with that, we are hearing that the banks are looking at low-cost options to moving talent. weight may be for somebody putting up their hands and saying i will go back to my country.
the national intelligence director, dan coats, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, general joseph dunford, regular attendees now of the nsc's principal committee. steve bannon is gone from the nsc and a roll downgraded, the homeland security adviser. let's check in on the first word news. courtney: president trump meets with the gordon king not walk-on
-- jordan king, he will deliver an arab consensus on middle east peace. rented the operator of recognizing israel in exchange for palestinian statehood. and f-16 fighter jet crashed eight few miles from joint base andrews in maryland. the pilot ejected safely and was taken by the helicopter. some homes have been evacuated as a precautionary measure. the airplane was part of an air national guard unit based at andrews. a warning from the eu chief brexit negotiator, she says the u.k. must settle the details of it split from the eu before there can be any talk of free trade deals. he says, if not, the british run the risk of getting no deal at all. the u.k. looking for ways to scrap its clean energy target. government officials want to abandon the national goal of getting 15% renewable energy by
2020, breaking the target would allow the u.k. to get out of the funds that could region millions of pounds. a rule that cherry picking that could disrupt brexit talks. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, the end coming director of the colombian central-bank joins us next. what is next for their economy. and the latest on steve bannon being removed from the national security council today. this is bloomberg. ♪
later this afternoon in the 1:00 p.m. our. , wide-outy did they -- why today, why now? >> when you look at the question surrounding this administration on foreign policy, including general plan having resigned several -- the general flynn having resigned several weeks ago on his relationship with russia. these conversations are continuing, not only from democrats but republicans on capitol hill with a series of hearings in both of the senate and the house on the president trump campaign officials and whether there was any contact with russia regarding the potential meddling in the previous election. all of that said, steve bannon very much has influence within circle,t trump's inner according to people familiar with his political operation. he offended point person on several key issues, including
infrastructure -- he has been the point person on several key issues, including infrastructure. nejra: steve bannon would be part of the people meeting with the chinese president's, will his absence have any significance? >> other people will be in florida with the president when the two-day summit with the chinese president is set to begin tomorrow and friday. they will be accompanied by people like the commerce secretary and the treasury secretary, steve mnuchin, and jared kushner, the president's son-in-law. they are set to have a serious -- series of meetings ranging from national security, a post steve bannon was once on the inside with regarding the national security council. and on trade. those meetings will continue by send aannon absence will jolt through this administration
about what exactly is happening internally when they are facing tough questions on a series of different fronts. nejra: thank you, kevin cirilli, at the white house bringing us up-to-date on steve bannon being removed from the national security council. later today, live coverage of the donald trump and king of bela news conference -- king abdullah news conference at 1:00 p.m. new york time. america's fourth largest economy is challenge with slow growth, dependence on commodities, and decades of civil unrest. i will address those with one of the countries most prominent economists and a professor at columbia university in new york. colombia has a separate set of problems than other countries in latin america. there is also some similarities. what can the central bank do in
colombia that is different from the ecb or the fed and their obligations and mandates? >> the major problem all central banks in emerging economies have -- the riskmanage those issues do not concern the fed are very important for emerging economies. vonnie: what about comparisons in terms of policy errors or policy wins? colombia suffers from high structural and employment and labor informality, dependence on a small number of commodities. in the past, have any of colombia's central bank's
actions helped or hurt the economy? >> they could affect negatively some of the things you mentioned to structural issues that do not depend on short-term macroeconomic policies. the level of the formality in the labor market is a structural issue that goes down with development. some other policies may have positive effects. for example, less taxes on wages. which is a policy the current administration have been following. unemployment, it is high in colombia. andin terms of informality unemployment, colombia is a low levels by historical standards. i think we have a good
environment in that regard. vonnie: the latest inflation figures later on, looking for four and three quarters percent inflation. interest-rate right now down another 25 basis point in the last few days to 7%. is that interest rate cycle over? or will there be more cuts? >> the tendency is that there will be more cuts. agreed by the central bank, because the inflation rate is ising down and the economy relatively cool. there is a possibility of more expansion. vonnie: jp morgan looking for 2.5%, 3% growth this year or next year, what is your estimation? >> most estimations are around 2.5%. that is this year. hopefully, there will be an acceleration through the year. vonnie: how should colombia
continue to diversify the economy? we see this in saudi arabia and venezuela suffer having no diversification at all. how is that movement going to continue in colombia? >> the most important thing now is the diversification of exports. we need new exports. aich has to be part of restructuring process in which, in particular, you have more manufacturers, you have a new agricultural sector. also, increasing exports of services which have become very important for colombia. vonnie: you brought it up, exports, the colombian relationship with the united states, how has that progress through this administration? >> improving in recent years. ,olombian exports to the u.s.
outside the two neighbors which ecuador,enezuela and to the u.s. and europe, colombia 's exports are recovering. that is very good news. no doubt, the facilities to export to the u.s. have been a very positive. 2012,: the currency, in is there a case to be made for more interventionist of a central bank? you are coming in as codirector in may. >> the more competitive exchange rate is essential for the diversification of exports. if that is her question. vonnie: what you be more interventionist post -may.
>> the team will decide the policy. not me. vonnie: your written about poverty and inequality, is there an advantage to just focusing on inflation in colombia, or what should be the primary focus of the central bank? >> the central bank, according to the constitution, has as its main objective, moderating inflation. it also says that that objective has to be researched and coordination with economic policy. also a concern is for employment and economic growth. in a sense, yes, the central bank is mainly concerned with inflation. but it has to coordinate with the government so that the overall package is positive. vonnie: what would fair value for the pace of the -- peso be?
>> you are asking the wrong person, i cannot answer. vonnie: the incoming central bank colombia codirector. later today, more on latin america, erik schatzker interviews the president of argentina at 3:30 new york time. tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time at 6:00 p.m. london time, david gura will have the first exclusive interview with former treasury secretary jack lew since he left the post, tests that on bloomberg television and radio. cannot wait for that. this is bloomberg. ♪
the german of the joint chiefs of staff chairman of the point jesus that back at the regular meetings of the nsc's principals committee. we will keep on reporting this story. let's get a check of the european market. nejra: stoxx 600 ending the day for it again, pretty much flat after some modest gains in between. how currencies and bonds are doing with sterling climbing for the first time in three days after u.k. services and pmi data , the 10-year gilts yield up after questions of the rally being overstretched.
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vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york we will take you from washington, d.c. to seattle, and beijing this hour. there are the top stories that we are following. u.s. stocks are rising to a two-week high after the adp report showed the pace of hiring at its fastest pace since 2014 at all s&p 500 sectors in the green with industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary leading gains in the dollar and treasuries getting ahead of that minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern. steve bannon removed from the national security council. we will have the latest on that bloomberg exclusive to later this hour, speaking with the former u.s. ambassador to china and former u.s. commerce secretary to get his insight ahead of the historic meeting tomorrow with president donald trump and the president of china.