tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg April 16, 2017 7:00pm-9:01pm EDT
♪ jumping asish lira president avalon declares new powers. plans for. reviews north korea following the weekend show of force. china urges calm on both sides. >> beijing escaping being branded a currency manipulator. the u.s. links it to count young. >> revenue growth is outpacing losses, the road ahead is clear. daybreakrld covered on
asia. we will be live in tokyo to talk with about the latest developments are rounding toshiba and be live in texas to hear from some who is bullish on the chinese yuan. releasingyork, uber its financial results for the first time. hopefully convincing more bulls on the company. this is "daybreak asia" coming to live. >> it is just after 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. i am in yvonne man. the markets, not just u.s. given china on a pass, but geopolitical tensions over the weekend and north korea, inflation data out of the u.s. soft for march. aret did indeed, so people wondering where is this reflation trade we are supposed to be seen by now. it does not seem to be happening at this point, or at least the
reflation part of the reflation trade. we want to bring up the boards on where we close on thursday. futures trading in japan. i think that is you. asia. is quiet in australia, and hong kong still close for the easter holiday, but japan futures, we could see a soft open on tokyo this morning. 108.60, watch out for that. the five-month low for the yen right now -- dollar-yen after that inflation data we have been talking about. currency traders focusing on that geopolitical risk in north korea. much to watch out for on this monday morning. let's get to our top stories. president trump tying the decision not to bring china a currency manipulator to beijing in bracing for your trade and working with the u.s. to deal
with north korea. our global in economics policy editor kathleen hays for more on this treasury report. what did we learn? we were expecting china would get a pass up to those comments we saw from trump last week. >> he said he was not going to brand china a currency manipulator, but the report does not let china off the hook. country a no major currency manipulator, but several on the watchlist. it is south korea, japan, taiwan, germany, and switzerland. it is not just asian nations, europe as well. here are the criteria for labeling a country occurrence in the later. have a material trade surplus as a percent of your of gdp. china is 1.8% of gdp, germany is 8%, much more trade dependent germany is than china. you have to have a significant surplus with the u.s..
that is where china falls short. you have to be intervening to weaken your currency, and china has turned around on that. #5913 puts this china surplus with the u.s., the trade deficit, in perspective, and those yellow bars are the trade deficit that the u.s. is running with china. bars are japan. that is why there was so much focus on china, so much emphasis from the u.s.. donald trump started tying trade a trade deal with china to cooperation of geopolitics shortly after his meeting with president xi jinping in mar-a-lago. he tweeted out, let's read the tweet, the famous tweet of what he said about china as a currency manipulator or not being a currency manipulator, "why should i call china a can earn seen manipulator when they were working with us on the north korea problem. --will see what happens to happens."
it seems he's trying to use the court of public opinion to entice china in a certain direction, saying we are getting cooperation, so we don't know yet, do we? let me go off script for a moment. do we usually hear from china on this at all? necessarily, but other times the chinese leadership has complained about being called a currency manipulator. they don't accept this, right, but there is so much going on right now in the china u.s. relationship, the north korea failed missile over the weekend. it is a highly fraught situation right now. that's why you have the tenure at 2.24%. this is pretty big. >> it isn't something we will be watching. we will watch it there is any statement from china given this twist. thank you so much. kathleen hays there. let's get to first word news with haslinda amin.
china's credit taps remained open in march with new lending increasing more than estimated. aggregate financing was the equivalent of $305 billion, well above forecasts of $220 billion. much of that was down to growth in shadow banking which policymakers have pledged to curtail. search for a second month, while the money supply expanded at the slowest pace since july. austria's opposition leader says an application by china for a $680 million government loan should be rejected. has not beene case made for taxpayers provide a low rate loan to an indian multinational. he said the carmichael colemont is viable and should not need such support. they want the money for a rail line to carry coal to port. the number of people killed in the collapse of a garbage dump in sri lanka has risen to 26.
there are fears that at least another 20 could still be buried. the dump fell down as people were celebrating local new year. 78 homes were destroyed and 150 damage. they have been protesting for years about the danger. isisraeli mining magnet suing george soros, claiming he lost $10 billion in business to a defamation campaign. he alleges george soros funded groups and government officials to ensure his mining company depositsts in iron ore and other business opportunities around the world. george soros has not commented. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. am haslinda amin. thank you. turkish president erdogan has claimed victory in a referendum
on the most sweeping overhaul of the country's government since its founding 93 years ago. voters narrowly backed plans to give him wide-ranging new powers on expectations he will safeguard security and kickstart the economy. i hope today's constitutional changes will be good for our country. our nation once again showed maturity by voting with free will on changes which have been approved by parliament. i'll bloomberg reporter has the latest from istanbul. are closely watching his next move. they seemed relieved when he ruled out the prospects of early elections in his victory speech on sunday evening. he did voice other sentiments that might give investors a alarm. he said he would immediately consider a referendum on reinstituting the death penalty.
that might cause problems with the eu, which turkey has been trying to join. eu officials immediately after the results complained about that proposal, but the constitutional package that the turks voted to approve itself come a it could cause problems and even halt the session process, so the political uncertainty is not entirely over. >> talking about the likely , callingfrom the eu is the election environment as unfair. what are we expecting? only onese not the who have called this referendum unfair. the opposition parties said they will contestant at the body that oversees turkeys voting process, but to did not found like they would get a hearing. they appeared live to say well yeseard your complaints but
was ahead with a one million vote margin, so nothing to see here. that does not mean turkeys partners are not worried, especially as president erdogan said he will revisit the relationship, a cryptic phrase, he used on the campaign trail, revisit the relationship with the eu after the vote, so it is unclear what it means exactly. still ahead, more on north korea's failed missile launch with the chairman emeritus of the u.s.-korea business council joining us. >> plus, we hear from one of the most bullish yuan forecasters about his bets on the currency. this is bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg has been told apple may ride to toshiba's rescue, looking at investing in the flash memory unit up for sale, options including partnering or joining a bid with japanese investors. we are told softbank may cooperate with hon hai or apple. >> apple's main chipmaking partner forecast, sales below estimates as the smartphone maker awaits the next iphone. billion,ct sales of $7 up 700 million below analyst projections. competitionising from samsung along with a strong taiwanese dollar and week chinese smartphone demand. >> sharp mate reenter the personal computer business after seven years. the nikkei news quotes the
says chart may also return to other technology equipment sectors, although not smart phones. the company withdrew from personal computers because of declining profit margins, but may sell devices under the sharp name. those comments from president trump when it comes to china, where does it go from here? let's bring up the tweet and let our viewers know what we are talking about from the president over the weekend, saying, why would i call china a currency manipulator when they are working with us on north korean problem. we will see what happens. guest is one of the most bullish of forecasters surveyed. texas tous now from talk more about this.
good to talk to you about this. dynamic when you are mixing trade with geopolitics. does this have any market implications for where dollar and yuan goes and what the pboc will do? >> the implications that you will see markets beat responsive, and so when the president says rings like the dollar is too strong, the dollar falls in love but it might quickly correct. at the end of the day, these currencies will respond to the fundamentals, so things like weak u.s. inflation data for the month of march, weak retail numbers, and the prospect of a weak first-quarter gdp number, the atlanta fed showing q1 gdp now could be as low as 0.5%. those kinds of things will be more important for the dollar in theshort-term, and for chinese currency, continued
expansion and manufacturing in china will probably be the most in portent in these political discussions around currency yes, no, they become of these types of things cause short-term volatility, but in the longer run, it is always the economic fundamentals that drive it. >> focusing on the economic fundamentals, you are focusing on those china pmi numbers. you take a look at the forecast for chinese yuan going forward, 6.9%, are in this lull, keeping it stable against the dollar. let's put up the chart and look at where the forecasts are at this point, ranging from the highs of 7.75 percent to the lows of 6.5% when it comes to where dollar-renminbi goes. i know you have a bullish forecast for 2017, perhaps 6.5% against the dollar by early 2018
. it seems like the pboc has been keeping it stable against the dollar, but actually weakening against the basket of currencies , so what is the biggest catalyst for yuan to move higher from here on forward? ofthere are a couple critical dynamics here. the first is china was in a manufacturing recession from 2016,er 2014 until june and it has been expanding since then. the second thing is the renminbi in the first quarter of 2016 into the quarter around 6.46%, so is it reasonable to think in the next 18-24 months that we could be back at a level we were at lynn china was in a manufacturing recession a little bit more than 12 months ago? i think that is not an unreasonable expectation if you continue to see improvements in the chinese economy, if you a movement there
in the global economy where you see an acceleration that supports chinese growth, and you see inflation or pressures that could put the pboc on notice to maybe think about tightening up monetary policy at some point in the year and a half or so. >> it is betty here. i want to jump in on the dollar because you noted the weakness in first-quarter gdp numbers will lead to the stellar weakening. i want to put up the chart about that interesting trend we are seeing with inflation, which is a softening considerably. that leading to a weakening of or at least in some ways influencing the weakening of the dollar. let's bring that chart up. .hat is happening here exactly why do you think this reflation trade is not happening to the extent that we thought it would a few months ago? said it is a couple
of things. expected more inflation, but not a lot more, and we had an out of consensus thesis since december that we would see a march fed rate hike, , and is out of consensus then we would see a positive till september, and that is still our view that we see that rate hike in march and expect the next one in september, so we just think there is modest increases in inflation and you do see energy prices coming back in and the month of march, heating up a little bit more in april, but you are also seeing i think as the fed has raised rates, i think there is a chance they will not want to over do it either, so they will take this slowly and have the ability to do so because inflation is only going up modestly, and march is a bit of a cause, but i think it takes the pressure off the fed for june. >> it does in the we are showing the dollar chart i was talking about, which has now moved dollar-yen below its 200 day
moving average. guys, let's bring that other chart now that talks about gold prices, because people are still talking despite this weakening outlook for inflation and the dollar, people are still betting on another rate hike, and what has been interesting is to see gold and its correlation with the rate hikes seems to be hitting a higher bottom every time there is another hike in rates, and i am curious to hear your forecast on gold. woody think it is headed? >> i think gold is going higher. i see three things as fundamentally driving gold prices, and the first thing is the dollar. we see a gradually weakening dollar on trend, although we expect to more rate hikes this year, september and december, and four next year. that a loto think is of that is priced in, and so rate hikes from the ecb or boe
would be a surprise, even higher expectations, and that could weigh on the dollar. there are other central banks thinking about rate hikes, and that should weigh on the dollar and we should see the dollar going down as a positive for gold. peakedmarkets, day had and are now sliding down to the on balance volume is the critical indicators there that shows while the crowd filed in, it is now 40% of what it was when it was at peak levels in mid-march, and so that is something else. the third thing is that the geopolitical and policy risks, and there is definitely a heightening of those, and what i the tail ends of distribution. you can get surprise events come and that is something that is supportive for gold prices from a technical basis the last few trading sessions you have seen
breakouts above the bollinger brand. this is a market that tends to trend. interesting, there are so many factors behind this gold rallied right now. what do you see in terms of timing as a trigger for this? you mentioned the geopolitical risks in syria, election's in europe as well, so what will be the biggest event that needs to materialize for us to see a meaningful risk off event? that q1 gdphink report, if it is week, it will be a real shot in the arm to gold prices, and right now i know there is a mix to set of data. the st. louis fed has its own estimate showing q1 gdp could be 3% to 3.5%, atlanta is showing .5%. q1 gdp and equity markets will take a big hit, dollar
would take a big hit, and gold will skyrocket. those are three things we will watch. that piece of data is not out for 10 days, but that will be one to watch. >> always good to have you. you. coming up next, uber has given up the luxury of not being required to report results and lifted the lid on its finances for the first time. we will run through the numbers next. this is bloomberg. ♪
show something is happening right and positive. let's look at the numbers. billion in terms of the gross bookings that uber has released to bloomberg. you can see the big jump from 2015 to 2016, more than double what we saw from one year earlier. you can see it how it happened to 2015, massive growth. net revenue, $6.5 billion for 2016. the adjusted net losses nearly $3 billion, and that excludes its china business, and we know that totals about $1 billion, so all in all for 2016, a loss of $3.8 billion, but with this public disclosure they are saying we are still profitable and still outpacing all of our losses.
as you can see, it is still a loss of about $1 billion just for the last quarter alone, so they still have a lot of work to do and analysts are saying this is something only a few companies including uber can do. >> what about regulatory problems? they have had their problems in asia. they have tweaked their strategy recently. ramy: they have returned to the island on taiwan. uber decided they could not go in the current capacity they were, so they said they could go back and it was an issue of misrepresentation of what they were. time as well as taxi companies were saying it was a transport company, which it is, but uber is also saying it is a tech company, which it also is, but now uber is saying they will partner with the relative authorities and transport companies and car rental
♪ it is 7:30 a.m. in hong kong. asia's first major market open setting. is seven: 30 p.m. sunday here in new york on this easter sunday. markets closed on friday. we are coming back from a pretty long weekend back to business. the future is indicating a lower open. i am betty liu in new york. yvonne: you are watching "daybreak asia." korea's latest -- north korea's latest failed missile test is dealing with the regime.
defense sources in seoul and the usa, it was launched with a medium range missile. it exploded after about five seconds. we are told president trump is going to take action if china will not take the lead in reining in its unpredictable ally. president trump said the decision not to label china as a manipulator came with the decision of kim john young. they stop short of pointing the finger of its foreign currency report. they urge beijing to embrace more trade, according to market forces. state media says 51% of voters have approved a constitutional change, given the president sweeping new powers. the president had its most radical call since its founding 93 years ago. he now has the authority to appoint ministers and senior judges and call elections
anytime. the opposition party wants a recount of ballots. apple has won approval for the first time for its self driving car on public roads. california department of motor vehicles is clearing for trials. sources tell us they will start using apple where in features. they started designing a self driving car to take on google and tesla before pulling back to focus on the underlying technology. global news, 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. markets are going to have plenty to digest when trading kicks off at the top of the hour. markets are closed, including hong kong. here is sophie cameroonian with more. aphie: we are looking at softer start in asia. they may be huddling, especially
after the weekend events. win theave erdogan referendum vote, which is likely to bring it to the markets. they are worried that the intervention in central bank policy. it has jumped the most since january. yen maintaining momentum as dollar strength weathers from u.s. and -- u.s. inflation. chart,could see on this jpmorgan says the yen could see more gains. if treasury yields decline a reaction to that deflation number, which could bring the value yen -- value yen to 107. if all to 2.4% on thursday. i want to point this out, there to be bullishon on japanese stocks. we are seeing the dividend yields closing in on the s&p 500. equities haveese
been battered so badly that they are too cheap to ignore. of course we are watching the dollar move after that u.s. treasury currency report. had he markets will react to that. ie: we have already seeing the dollar-yen fall. it could face more pressure. the report clearly stated that it affected the yen. that is more than his 20 year historical average. the report released friday said there is little evidence that the yen is overvalued. when it comes to china, the u.s. did hold off on that currency manipulator label, which are has been since 1994. there were some words u.s. have for china, saying it has caused long-lasting hardship to american workers. they did urge beijing to let the yuan rise -- right. have seen in being fairly aggressive when it comes
to stabilizing the yuan, which has kept in line of what they want to appease the u.s.. we have seen the yuan range down this year in the wake of that. i want to point this out, we did have one year implied volatility for the offshore yuan, called just fell to its lowest back in august 2016. we are at about that level as of last week. next, bill joins us to talk about why pressure is on the entered. we will have consequences for growth way beyond china. this is bloomberg. ♪
head lower. 108 spot. this is daybreak asia, i in a show you. betty liu: tensions rising in korea. arriving after north korea attempted another missile launch. arrive earlyp will next week. joining us now is someone who has done extensive business in south korea, as well as asia at large. resident ofis the william r rhodes global advisor. also the senior vice-chairman at citigroup. ,he author of the recent book leadership lessons from the frontline of global finance. bill has pretty much seen it all when it comes to struggle and challenges in the global economy. also with us is our global economic editor. as i was mentioning, not to date
you, but you have seen so many crisis here around the world. is interesting but happen in 1997 with the financial crisis and south korea. falling into this a massive debt burden. i am curious to compare what you saw back then to what is going on now, also with what happened in 2008. how worried are you about this with north korea and whiting into a -- widening into a full out crisis? a train country. you have elections coming up on may 9 because president park was forced out. of time ofis period instability within south korea itself. in the days where i did the -- youturing, you had
had the grandson who patters himself after the grandfather. you had this matters -- massive parade for the anniversary of his grandfather. i think it is a difficult situation. he had the big parade and showed off these new missiles. he tried to have one fly off close to japan, fortunately it blew up. what everyone is concerned about is that they have had five nuclear tests, successful ones. everyone is concerned that, very sure that shortly he will try a sixth. a six.ill try >> what is china doing behind-the-scenes? bill: that is the key because nobody is sure. apparently, a friend of mine who is senior in the foreign service of china told me that the meeting between the two presidents at my a lot go was
actually very positive from the view of the chinese. much better than they thought. the question is, what will come out of that with north korea? i think president trump will be forced to put on secondary sanctions with chinese banks if the chinese do not take a stronger stand towards trying to restrain kim jong-un. >> what can they do? what can donald trump and xi jinping do together? if you are going to be on the frontline of this global negotiation, you have so many parties together, what can they agree on that could maybe -- they have a breakthrough, some breakthrough on north korea. this relationship with north fora, he did not create it many years. maybe he too wants to make a change. bill: few times that i have been with him and heard him speak on the subject, he is not particularly happy what is going on in north korea.
i heard him say that personally, and xi jinping. i think the problem is the chinese have always been concerned that they do not want american influence. if you have a combined reunified korea, you will have that. i think they had mixed signals out of the chinese. the chinese could start squeezing north korea economically, much more than they do. they are the biggest purchasers of their coal. they do a lot of different trade arrangements, and they could squeeze them. in fact, the north koreans use some of the chinese banks. they could prohibit the chinese banks as acting as intermedia's -- intermediaries. the u.s. says that if they do not get something out of china in the foreseeable future -- and this ties in also with trade. our president is a negotiator. he is basically saying, look, i
want to see some progress on knocking down this big deficit $347 trillion -- billion dollars. when he is looking for is that with our imports, particularly agriculture to knocked on this trade deficit. i think there is a lot to be discussed here. here, because, remember we have had three presidents that have actually tried to stop nuclear development and missile development in korea. starting with bill clinton, jeb bush-- excuse me, george junior. and also president obama. failed.of them have what we have seen is continuing development on the missile side and the nuclear site. we have seen it before,
sanctions on north korea have not exactly worked. rex tillerson saying, a new approach may be needed. do you think the u.s. is serious when they talk about how they want to deal with north korea direct do that directly without -- north korea directly without china? bill: i think that was the meeting in mar-a-lago. he saw the comments with president trump how there could eat in understanding with china. we will have to see. the sanctions have not work because they have not been fully implemented by china and other countries. i think that is the first step you will see done. then, you get to the point of, will the united states do more if we do not see some sort of arrangement to stop the nuclear development and missile development. what the north koreans want to do, they want to marry a nuclear within the continental
ballistic missiles so they can threaten the west coast of the united states. stateson in the united can allow that to happen. as i said, starting with bill andton, george bush junior, with president obama, they all off.d this decision we have seen this tremendous advancement, both on the missile side and the nuclear site in north korea. this is the president that will have to do something to stop it. >> do something to stop it, we also have this deployment in south korea that has poisoned relations when it comes to u.s., china and china and south korea. do you think we could see further downside some of these relations when it comes to this part of the region? that is certainly a contention between china, the united states and south korea.
the empty missile to point it. the candidate who looks like he is my ahead in the polls oon, who runs for the democratic party. he says he will do -- reviewed the deployment of that. i got to know him when he was president knows cheap of staff. chief ofually pro -- staff. he is pro-american and understands the united states. he was very positive when i was negotiating the trade agreement with korea. i am hopeful that he will leave that deployment there. -- if he is elected president we will have to see what he will do. the chinese are very unhappy because they say the radar associate it with the missile system penetrates manchuria or it that is their prop -- manchuria. that is their problem. not the missile system themselves, but the radar associate it with it. >> i just want to pull up a
quick chart. there are not that many we can pull out on north korea, but at very this one shows you clearly, they're trading relationship, north korea's trading relationship with country -- countries around the world. peoplepull it up to show just how isolated north korea really is, which we know already , but this is bloomberg's way of showing it in numbers. coming off of that question from about southonne korea, do you think it should be trump there at this point? should he be a broad right now bringing his message? bill: he has other problems, as you know with his economic program. after the problems of health care, i think he has to get moving on tax reform
infrastructure and deregulation. i think that is why he sent mike pence, because he has to get moving on that area. at the end of the day he will be judged on that. he promised he would implement those three areas and get 3% growth. i think that is the reason he sent the vice president and not himself. >> he has more problems at home. >> donald trump already said that he would not labeled china a currency manipulator. the report makes it very clear that they want china to reduce their trade deficit. make sure your currency stacia wrong, have consumption led growth, and of course if we could pull up a bloomberg chart, #-- how could you live without bloomberg and charts? it shows how long china's u.s. trade gap is. the biggest part -- or at least half of it globally. those yellow bars are china. look how much smaller it is with
japan. where does the u.s./china relationship stand now? does donald trump think he has xi jinping on inside -- on his side? bill: as i said the last few times when i was on your program, when i was in china just before thanksgiving, at the people's bank of china, they made it very plain to me that they had spent $1 trillion to basically keep the renminbi, you on up. there was no basis for the united states saying that there a currency manipulator and less they are keeping it up, not pushing it down. pushing it down you have to go way back, several years before you could accuse china of that. there was no basis for the accusation in the first place. realistically, i think what the united states wants to do is open the chinese markets more for certain american products.
can obviously be improved. beef, which has been a problem with china because they say, well, they've found some problem with the beef imports from the united states, but that is one area where they could do something. agreed thato, they there would be a 100 day period to see how this trade balance could be improved upon. when i say improved upon, afford the united states by china. we will have to see what comes of that. out of mar-a-lago, a couple of things came out. will chinan of what do to help constrain, rish strain kim jong-un -- restrain kim jong-un? not much was said about the south china sea. >> i guess you have to address the hottest issue.
issue this has been a hot for global bond markets. we have seen a significant move in u.s. 10 year treasury. down below 2.3% in yield. people say yes after the retail sales, maybe they are doubting their reflation rate, but they are being driven by these geopolitical tensions. what do you think the message is from the bond market? what do you see in the u.s. and global economy? we have seen a first quarter that doesn't look so great it -- great. bill: i think the markets want to see where growth is. they want to see it in china. they want to see what happens in france because, this election in france may be a lot closer than people think. most people think you will have two candidates in the first round. ton it will automatically go him. some polls that have come out in the last few days indicate that
the second round may be a lot closer than people think. it think a lot of these are overhanging the market. the u.s. growth not being what people hoped it would be. happens in see what china. as i mentioned on your previous programs, the chinese are doing everything to stimulate the economy to keep it above six and a half percent, because they have the 19th party congress this fall. pick thehen they will thestanding committee of bureau, which is the number one in 14 issue for xi jinping. that.ave interest to keep do you thinke go, that the inflation numbers and what we see with bond yields is notthat the fed behind the curve with their rate cycle? with what i stick told you in the past couple of months. i think there will be three
increases the past year. build roads, the former citigroup feist chairman. citigroup's-- vice-chairman. using get all of your stories in bloombergition of daybreak: europe it is also available in the bloomberg anywhere at. you can customize your setting so you only get the news on assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
discovered. the well is venting gas and crude. environmental protection agency has yet to determine the size of the leak. leak is contained. it rose to 506 5000 barrels a day last month, its highest level since december 2013. betty liu: the first u.s. bank earnings under president trump shows a split between wall street and main street. revenuerevenue outpace --a fed rate hike paired rate hike. a sluggish results and a fall in total loans. airlines has changed its policy on employee travel. onws flying as passengers planes have to be booked in our before departure. a social media backlash showing a united passenger being dragged
from the seat and forcibly removed from the aircraft. he was taken off the flight to make way for an airline employee. play more still to come with asia's first major market open, now just moments away. australia, new zealand and hong kong. let's bring in sophie to tell us what we should be watching at the opening in seoul. tokyo we arein watching for toshiba, the company has a life line extending to the end of the month. when it comes to the struggling airbag maker takata, they are still ongoing and could last until mid-may. hotspot, keep an eye on the stocks like korea airspace. that check-in with the futures board. we are looking at a weaker open after getting whiplash last
♪ >> asia-pacific markets set to fall after a fourth straight week of losses, the yen strengthening. , anpple may offer toshiba investment in its memory chip unit. china escapes being branded a currency manipulator. trump links the decision to north korea. uber's shedding light on its finances for the first time, saying revenue growth is beating losses and the road ahead is clear. >> this is the second hour of
"daybreak asia" coming to you live from bloomberg's u.s. an asian headquarters. i am yvonne man in hong kong. liu in new york. i want to take a step back before we get in the hour and look at this chart which i think set you up for the reason why the markets are set for a lower open. the dollar has been weakening as we see in this chart represented by those candlesticks. theyen has weakened to point that it is below that 200 day moving average. if you needed any support as to why the dollar is weakening, it was friday's data. friday's data is showing inflation was much softer than what economists estimated. versusi actually falling the slight rise that was
expected, so everyone is wondering where is this reflation trade. you might see that hit stocks further tomorrow. are the prospects for the fed as yields continue to fall, the dollar as well. where they have two square off with the comments coming from donald trump who wants lower rates and a weaker dollar. , australia,s quiet new zealand, and hong kong still closed for easter. investors have a lot to square when it comes to the weekend even spirit gold closer to 1300 announced. -- an ounce. output,hat industrial retail sales, and fixed asset investment scum of the dollar-yen falling to fresh five-month lows putting pressure
in tokyo, the nikkei falling by a fifth straight day. did fall for a sixth straight week. as traders watch what is going on, korean shares up .4%, resuming a two day rise, volatility on the kospi around the highest in a month. .25%.an is up it did fall .5% last week. we have see stocks whipsawed due to heightened geopolitical tension. we are keeping an i on jgb's and 10 year rates. in the commodities space, a mixed bag. i will try to pull that up. after theng below $53
u.s. added rigs for a 13th straight week. let's take a look at a currency following the weekend, the turkish lira jumping the most presidentary given erdogan's victory in that referendum. there maye concerned be intervention when it comes to central-bank policy, but for now, they are getting some relief, crossing the 100 day moving average. >> thank you so much. sophie kamaruddin on the markets. taking a look after that referendum. now first word news with haslinda amin. north korea's failed missile test is not expected to change washington's plans, defense sources saying the launch exploded after five seconds. we are told president trump is prepared to take unilateral action if china won't take the lead and rein in its
unpredictable ally. theident trump says decision to not label china a currency manipulator came as a result of banking -- beijing helping to deal with pyongyang. instead, it urged beijing to embrace more trade and let the yuan according to market forces. says 51% ofe media voters have approved a constitutional change, giving president erdogan sweeping new powers. the president hailed the most radical overhaul since its founding 93 years ago and now has the authority to appoint ministers and judges and call elections anytime. the main opposition party once a recount of one third of ballots. korea's biggest shipbuilder has won approval for a restructuring with one at $75 million worth of bonds maturing.
it has agreed to a plan put forward by the development bank. it had in place under court receivership had the plan not been accepted. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. bloomberg has been told apple may ride to sure she was rescue rescue, looking to invest in toshiba's memory unit up for sale. is peternto this elstrom. why do you think they are interested in toshiba? >> it is interesting. apple has a vested interest in having a strong supply chain, so it wants to have companies and options as it puts together its
new devices. toshiba is one of the leading makers of flash memory in the world after samsung. makes/memory and smart phones that compete with apple, so apple has a vested interest in making sure toshiba is able to invest in these memory plants . >> what about some of the other bidders? it's starting to get crowded. you have even softbank tossing in their hat. >> right. it is worth taking a step back. aliens is wrestling with of dollars in losses from its westinghouse nuclear business, and as a result, they are selling off assets. flashiable asset is this memory business. we have seen a few companies come in and express interest in that unit so far. ai has put in the highest
bid according to sources we have talked to. , a chip maker in the u.s. that has been consolidating the industry, is coming in late. one of partner up with these bidders and put together a new consortium. the japanese government is interested in putting together a local consortium to take control of the toshiba chip business if they can. it is early days and has not been able to put together that consortium so far, but is interested in doing so, and apple with these groups would give it more power and financial capability. >> i want to put up a chart on toshiba. you have seen the share price following considerably so far this year, but what has also happened is the heavy amount of selling is matched by the heavy amount of volume so to speak, and in fact, the point is at
eight year record, so while you have bidders wanting to pick up some of the pieces of toshiba, the long-term investors in toshiba are trying to find their exit, so what does that mean for the future of the company and these bidders. an extremelywas chaotic week for toshiba. they took the unusual step of recording december mornings -- earnings without the approval of their auditor. they also gave this warning that they may not be able to continue as a growing concern. the losses are severe. the accountants have not been able to get their hands around how deep that whole is. as toshiba sells off assets, the investors are trying to get their heads around what are the prospects for this company going forward. they have also warned that they
will be dropped from the first year of the tokyo stock exchange and may be de-listed altogether, high volatility situation for investors and for employees and everybody else obviously. thank you so much. up next, the u.s. vice president arriving in south korea just hours after we heard about north korea's failed missile test. we will assess the diplomatic fallout and -- this is bloomberg. ♪
will be discussing this issue during an april trip to russia, koreae saying north holding multiple chemical weapons. over the weekend, the north korea did fire some missile that failed. we continue to watch those lines from japan. >> that segues nicely with our next guest talking about vice pence's meeting during his 10 day asia trip focused on business, but certainly geopolitics will be on the agenda. bloomberg is traveling with the vice president. justin, mike pence just arrived after north korea's failed missile test. intome how that will play
some of them meetings he will have, including with the president? it will be on top of the agenda no matter what. there are a lot of concerns within south korea. the white house has downplayed the missile. did not seem to make an impact, but nevertheless, a message from vice president reaffirmh two the two its commitment and reassure that we will do what we can to help. much autonomy so tuesday speak does the vice president have to speak about the developments? they are fast-moving right now. .> right can you just repeat that could we had a helicopter land near
tsmc faces rising competition from samsung, specially android devices, as well as the weak dollar and weak demand. trying to close an oil well after a leak was discovered then ting gas and crude. the epa has yet to determine the size of the leak. bp says the problem is contained and no oil has reached the ground. reduction rose to 565,000 barrels per day come the highest level since the summer 2013. earningsrst u.s. bank shows a stark split between wall street and main street. jpmorgan and citigroup beat first quarter estimates. the other hand, which focuses on traditional consumer and business banking, reported sluggish results and a fall in total loans.
>> the dollar dropping after u.s. inflation in march missed the globalnd whether reflation trade can be sustained. our next guest seems dollar weakness seems to be open. now from singapore. before we talk specifically about the dollar, although it is related, i want to get your take on this news we got that the u.s. is not going to call china a currency manipulator. how do you expect that to affect the dollar, but also the chinese currency? i wouldn't look for much impact from the currency report itself. we had flagged well in advance and the trump administration that this was not going to be where they made their stand on fx issues, so i don't inc. there will be big ripples, but when we look further down the line, the flash point iny
terms of a potential shift in trade policy will be the report we get from commerce at the end of june. that is being done under the auspices of the more outspoken individuals on trade policy in the trump administration, and ar's a scope is f broader than the treasury report. it is more likely that when we look to the end of june that will be the potential flashpoint. >> something to mark your calendars with. and invented to watch out for to cause some ripples here. ripples, what was interesting as the inflation report on friday when the markets were on holiday. and how that affected the greenback, and what is interesting is i want to bring up this chart about economic
surprises. we have this economic surprise much, which pretty everything else, or at least when you gather them together, represented by the blue line here, shows that for the most part we have been getting upside surprises in economic numbers, however the dollar has continued to fall, and it has now full and to the lowest level so how did make sense of that? i know we have this week inflation report on friday, but how do you make sense of pretty good economic numbers and the dollar continuing to weaken? i think there are two ways we can square that rise in economic surprises or dataflow with the price action. it is not just in the u.s. that we are seeing a pickup in terms of dataflow. we have seen dataflow accelerate isoss the globe and it driving some compression in terms of this expectation that the u.s. economy was going to be
the sole out performer. we have seen emerging markets and other developed nations catch up. other issue in terms of mitigating impact on the dollar, i think it comes down to the fact that we aren't releasing the pickup in terms of the dataflow translate to any increased expectation for the fed to tighten interest rates. certainly we all know that labor anotherare strong, but decent month of payrolls is not enough anymore to trigger expectations for the fed to accelerate its pays, and i think that when we look at the incentives for fed policy makers to signal an aggressive stance, so far out from the june meeting, it is probably not there. i think with that does is creates a window for dollar weakness. we have some as being in terms of expectation for policy from the trump administration to support the dollar, the fed support does not to seem online
yet, and the rest of the world is catching up your that to me is not a constructive environment for the dollar. given these geopolitical risks, i'm looking at the yen moves as it strengthens, 108.38, the won on a tear as well. -- see long deceit dollar positions unwind, so what do you see with the yen and the won and where they are going at this point? >> i think you are exactly right to say the price action we have seen recently is a bit more risk off than the price action we had several weeks ago. partly that seems to reflect the pickup in terms of geopolitical tension. i do think there is more room for the market to price in those developments, and i think that does argue for outperformance from safe haven currencies such as the japanese yen. that would be our preferred
means of expressing this view. i do think there is further downside for dollar-yen as well as the rest of asia, i don't think that the likelihood is we will see quite as strong performance, perhaps even some weakening on the crosses if there is a further flareup in tensions between the u.s. and north korea. >> thank you so much. at citigroup. for the first time in the u.s., bloomberg has open the books on the state of its finances for uber, giving bloomberg an exclusive look at its numbers after a recent string of scandals, battered image around the world. remy and a sincere has the details for us. uber was glad united took the spot. they did open their books. bloomberg took a look at it. $20 billion is the number out there. in terms of revenue growth over the 2015, it has doubled.
if you want to pull up the chart, there we go. you can see that orange bar rising to $20 billion. net revenue at 6.5 billion dollars, and losses at $3 billion and does not include the , a $1 billion loss. uber revealed fourth quarter 2016 numbers come all rising versus the quarter before that. the third quarter of 2016, gross bookings up 28%, revenue up 74%, and losses rising. it is interesting there because that is a huge number for any company, losses of $1 billion there. university professor said that is a lot of cash to burn, but they are pushing out quickly.
this is something the ceo has been advocating for years and they are trying to burn as much as they can to burn up the competition. >> when it comes to expansion, we have the latest news out of taiwan, uber's planned there, and they're going to take a second stab with the new business model. will it work? >> good question. it looks like it will work because right now they said they are partnering with licensed drivers here. about two months ago, february 10 was when uber pulled out of the island territory and they said they have to pull out because of these massive fines they were going to be hit with. uber's says it is now partnering with license rental car companies and stressed they are licensed to resume serving riders in taipei. it was fine, but this happened off the back of the legislature
in january saying if you are not going to play by our rules, we will find you and find you hard, so that is when it passes law that said for every incident where you pick up a passenger you are not allowed to come we will find you as much as $780,000, which is huge. that that is the biggest find whatsoever in terms of its category. you won't find that anywhere else, so now when you open your uber afton taiwan coming you will be able to hail a ride. >> thank you. coming up, china is not a currency manipulator, that the u.s. is still watching. we will to you what came out of the treasury's investigation next. plenty more to come here on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. 8:30 in the lion city, half an hour away from the open of trading, some breaking news out of singapore, non-oil domestic exports a sizable beat, 16.5% for march, year on year figures. for a sevenlling .3% rise. we did see that 20 1.5% jump in non-oil domestic exports for february. this is mainly due to the electronic exports, once again not as strong as before, but still seeing a gain of 5.2%. the non-oil domestic exports hith on month, that saw a
of the debt, down 1.1 percent, but not as bad as economists were expecting, a 6.4% drop in non-oil domestic exports for the month on month figures, so still seeing resilience when it comes to global trade, and we certainly saw exports out of china, south korea as well. >> indeed. it is a little lower than the prior month, but as you mention comes still quite strong for singapore. let's get to first word news with haslinda amin. haslinda: turkish state media says 51% of voters have approved givingitutional change president erdogan sweeping new powers. the president hailed the most radical overhaul since its founding 93 years ago and now have the authority to appoint ministers and senior judges and call elections any time. the main opposition party once a recount of around one third of ballots. reports from seoul, korea say
the ousted president park may be formally indicted monday and face a criminal trial for corruption. a detention held at center outside the city since being arrested last month for allegedly extorting millions of dollars from big business. an official at the prosecutors office indicated that park would be indicted today, but gave no other details. iran has boosted natural gas output with six new projects at an offshore field. it has raised production capacity to 500 75 million cubic meters a day, putting it almost qatar. with neighboring cathe iran has the world's biggest natural gas reserves, but unlike qatar, most is used domestically. the people killed in a collapse has risen sri lanka
to 26, with 20 feared buried. it came down as people were celebrating local new year. at least 78 homes were destroyed and 130 damaged. covering the houses and neighbors have been complaining about the danger. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. time to see how the asian markets are shaping up monday morning. here is sophie kamaruddin. the topixt's look at paring its earlier drop of .5%, health care and real estate treading water as materials and financials drag in tokyo. set for a 225 is fifth straight day of losses. we are also keeping an ion treasury deal today. the first reaction with the
inflation in march, the 10 year rate sliding for basis points to 2.2%, the lowest level since november, and yields falling. into the wayling we are seeing dollar-yen perform . the yen going from strength to strength, the 200 day moving average is clearly broken and it is trading near the highest ,evel since mid-november gaining against all g10 peers. traders could be looking for the next line in the sand with dollar-yen eyeing lower levels around 107, but with reduced liquidity and a holiday today, the focus could shift to that one year 61.8% fibonacci level at 106.52, the red line on this chart. last look at the korean won climbing, advancing against the
dollar, gaining as much as .4% earlier despite worries over the korean peninsula. we do have u.s. vice president pence kicking off a 10 day trip to asia and is due to have a joint press conference with officials this afternoon, so we will be keenly watching for what reaction we get from north korea. >> thank you so much. we have been talking about it through the last few hours, let's dig deeper into this issue. president trump time that decision not to brand china a currency manipulator, embracing free trade and working with the u.s. to deal with north korea. kathleen hays is here with more. elmer saying todd this is not too much of a surprise, telegraphing this might not happen, but still we have the final results of these. >> we do. china'still see that
>> on the currency intervention question, we know that in the department treasury went out of their way to say that for over a decade, china was trying to weaken its currency, now we can see that china is trying to keep the currency stronger. we want that to be a durable change in policy. that is what they are emphasizing. $1 trillion ofr reserves to boost the yuan, so it is clear they are moving in that direction. things have shifted.
where china was is not where they are now, so donald is navigating these waters and is trying to have consumption led growth instead of export led growth. unusual is it to link this trade deal and also the north korean situation with currency manipulation? it is in theink realm of history of how countries do things, i don't think it is completely unprecedented, but let's put out the tweet. that is what is unprecedented. let's poorly down to this. why would i call chance a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the north korean problem? we will see what happens. after the mar-a-lago meeting, donald trump had been blinkin ba trade deal especially if they help us with north korea. the former vice chairman of
citigroup said after mar-a-lago, we can see moving towards a trade deal, wanting help on north korea, but he says there are some big obstacles. he is not a tickly happy with what is going on in north korea. i heard him say that personally. is the the problem chinese have been concerned they've don't want american influence. if you have a combined reunified korea, and you will have that, so there are mixed signals out of the chinese. will, mixed signals and they change their stance on cooperation. it seems that this would make a very large step by xi jinping and the leadership. report came with some words for china as well. where does is the china and
other countries on the watchlist? >> there are other countries on the watchlist. to, china had the need reduce its trade surplus and export led growth and more, but they singled out germany, who is also on the watchlist. we focus so much on china, germany is more trade dependent and export dependent than china. export surplusit is a percent of gdp, it's a trade balance. because itat #7801 paints the picture clearly. you can see the chinese trade surplus, the white line as a percent of gdp, 1.75, japan three point 8%, china surplus is more than 8% of its gdp, so what does the foreign exchange reports say about germany? let's have a look at that. they were singled out in terms of recognizing that you have a global responsibility come a
germany, the largest economy, youhave to realize that have to reduce your surplus and used fiscal policy to boost consumer demand, so your people buy more imports from overseas, and this would also put upward pressure on the euro and help exchange rates, helping to balance these trade deficits, trade surpluses when they get out of whack, and that something that has to happen. , u.s., japan, south korea says minimize your intervention to weaken your currency and try to be more transparent about what you're doing and why. in the end, an important statement from the treasury expressing the administration's view that the u.s. will not air the burden of the unfair trading system. i think the indication is that the impact on u.s. jobs and u.s. companies, they are saying it is a two-way street, and so this is why they put this report out every couple of years. it seems to me that there is a lot of constructive attitude
and tesla before pulling back to focus on underlying technology. sharp may reenter the personal computer business after seven years quoting the president as saying that sharp may offer opportunities to other sectors. the company with june from personal computers because of declining profit margins. universal on track for the biggest global movie opening of all time. the fate of the furious, the eighth installment of the franchise was released and 63 countries, including china. almost five hundred $33 million worldwide. that would beat the force awakens by $4 million. the star wars sequel was not in china on its first weekend. >> it seems to have made a difference opening in china.
ian harper is one of austria's best-known economist and has been an rv a member since last may. heidi lynn met him in melbourne and ask him if all strays quarter century without a recession was due to good design are just down to good luck. it has been in the exterior of good luck and good management. we have enormous resources in this country. our economic reform has been deliverinded, to enormous growth and progress. over time, that waxes and wanes and depends on the public mood. i emphasize that politics and economics go hand-in-hand. have thethat economist right to impose policy on the people. they need to be convinced that the policy is worth its costs and benefits. >> what is your take on the triple rating debate -- aaa rating debate?
there seems to be an obsession holding onto it. his at preventing decisions from being made? >> i don't think the government is driven by the credit ratings. after all, it is the soften that makes his decisions based on what it considers best for the people, and it is not necessarily clear with the ratings agencies will do, how they will respond, so my view is it should not be off the back of what the ratings agencies might or might not do. i don't believe the government is doing that. comesperty prices when it to major cities have been on a tear. is there a concern that despite in placemeasures put that we are setting up for an asset bubble? >> there is no doubt property prices are growing strongly in sydney and melbourne, but not a nationwide problem. prices are falling in perth, so it is restricted to the two major capitals driven by significant population growth in both capitals, and restraints on supply. >> it is clearly a headache for
policymakers to be setting one monetary policy for what is quite clearly a multifaceted come up multispeed economy and property markets around australia. >> the reserve bank is focused on inflation of goods and services prices, not property prices. what it is concerned about his financial stability. any sort ofe to be property bust, then that plays out negatively for financial stability, so it is clear the reserve bank keeps an eye on but the interest rate is constant across the country, and different parts of the country are operating at different speeds, different paces of the economic cycle. the instrument was never designed to be the only instrument to control that. when it comes to property prices, there are other instruments which regulators are reaching for. this popular backlash with brexit and trump,
fromere a perceived shift trade and globalization backing potentially nafta as well, do see the impact on all straight as being an extremely negative one given the exposure and vulnerability this economy has? >> if there were some sort of retreat from trade, particularly amongst the major nations, then that it's something that could have a negative impact on us. on the other hand, when certain countries trade with parties, you can benefit, even the aggregate around the globe is a negative influence, but there can still be pockets of gain. we can gain trade diversion in our favor even if there is trade disruption over all, so it is difficult to pick. on balance, we would be better off if there was more trade, and if there is an anti-trade sentiment abroad, that is something we would prefer to see less of. of 25 years of
uninterrupted growth in australia without a recession, with d.c. as the biggest downside that potentially could interrupt that. range of risks that could affect us. there is a lot of policy uncertainty and geopolitical uncertainties. ourink we have to navigate way through with good, strong domestic policy. that has worked for us over the last 25 years. we have had uninterrupted growth and there have been ups and downs throughout that process. the globalough financial crisis and came out the other side without a recession. we went to the asian crisis and the tech wreck, so there have been different challenges which we have faced, and good strong policy with good institutions and a steady focus on what our objectives are has seen us through it a would not want to change that formula. >> it looks like we are getting some early murder monday news breaking moments ago. ant financial still owned by
jack ma apparently is in a merger agreement with money gram , the u.s. based money transfer company. they have raised their did to $18 a share from the $13.25 earlier. that was countered by the rival, and so it looks like ant upped the stakes and said they would raise that offer to $18 a share. agreed to come and it says the money gram board of directors according to a press release has unanimously approved the amended merger agreement, so now it is up to shareholders as they agree to this as well as regulators as there has been concern about whether this might go through the tory approval. financial seen ant defend its bid even with year euronet saying we would get that approval.
china's gdps think expanded in the first quarter under pen by strength in real estate investment and industrial production. tom mackenzie joins us now with more. does this suggest that the immediate risks to china's economy might have faded? that is the interesting question. we heard from economists about the risks facing china's economy for the year. one was real estate and whether these aggressive curbs put in place would lead to a big selloff. that hasn't happened. in fact, investment and sales continued to be robust. the other key concern was capital outflows. that has slowed, and we have seen fx reserves for february and march pickup. theddition to those,
question of whether are not trump would slap on tariffs on chinese tariffs. that has not happened. these positive momentum drivers behind the economy, investment in industrial production, exports taking higher come all leading up to this forecast of 6.8% for the first quarter. forwardquestion going is how sustainable this is. we will get some indication of that with the retail sales numbers for march and industrial production and fixed asset investment. >> should we expect any changes from the pboc then? the 6.8we do get percent number, bloomberg intelligence expects the pboc will continue to nudge rates higher in the money market, so possibly further, not just the reverse repo rate -- they have done two of those, knocking them up 10 basis points. the other factor that ties into
the question of risk his credit. we sought new credit on friday well above expectations, a lot of money flowing into shadow banking, an area the economy that policymakers said they want to tackle. it seems they are failing to do that quickly enough, and that is a longer-term risk seen by many economists to growth here. too much of this growth is dependent on the big pickup in investment. as i said, we will get those numbers at 10:00 a.m. hong kong time and break goes down for you. >> thank you. ont's all for us here ."aybreak asia we just mentioned how the immediate risks to china has faded for now, but they are facing when geopolitical risk, which is north korea. >> that's right. when you look at the strategy the trump administration has taken, they are really converging these two issues of trade, currency, of these
financial ties with the entire geopolitical and regional security situation, so we will talk more about that with the u.s. vice president on a 10 day trip to asia, take a look at what we are expecting from him on the policy front and will speak to the managing director of control risk a group of about this north korea situation and how that impacts korea domestically as they go into the first week proper of campaigning for the presidential campaign there. aside from him, what other guests do you have coming up? >> we will be talking about and domestice gdp indicators, but speaking to mr. yen, the treasury report and what it means for the japanese currency. ♪
♪ it is 90 4 a.m. in hong kong, 11:00 in sydney, 9:00 p.m. in new york. i am haidi lun. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat coming to you from bloomberg's asian headquarters in hong kong. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪ haidi: mixed messages for asian markets, trading in japan the kospi forging ahead. extending the growth