tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 26, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
"bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: go the top stories we're covering from the bloomberg and the world. president trump, angela merkel, d other leaders gather in sicily today as trump has tough ford for germany's economic policy. u.k. prime minister theresa may is an civilly and polls are tightening dramatically as the labor party and jeremy corbyn make a push ahead of the election. is it time for the tories to start worrying? and and markets, oil slightly higher, still below the $50 a . barrel mark. likechange strategies saudi arabia finally ending the cre crude glut?
is your function. we are down on the european benchmark today. sterling 1.2% lower today and the biggest drop since february. we will talk more about this with emma just the second. a big decline due to the narrowing of the polls in the upcoming elections. starting with this chart, the correlation between the ftse and the pound. your member since the referendum a weak pound and rising stocks on the ftse because most of them get their earnings from overseas. interesting is that the correlation is now positive, but the index shows no signs of running out of steam. five weeks of gains just below record. the marketns says can live with a modestly positive sterling.
there still room for the equity rally to continue, but they are moving in unison, interesting given that they moved in a divergent way. currency weakness that boosted exporters amid an unprecedented want her stimulus, stocks relied on the domestic economy and the eurozone beginning to outperform. this is the jpmorgan domestic play, what is the white line versus the jpmorgan exporters basket, which is the blue line. it's because the euro is beginning to rise. how is it looking over there?? julie: bouncing between gains and losses with volume 20% below the moving to average. trends that has really taken hold a little more from has been the air coming out of the reflation trade here.
looking at the treasury spread between the tens and the twos. that particular yield curve has been flattening here. a ratio of value to growth that has also been coming down and both of these have been gaining steam over the last couple of months. the two best performing groups on the s&p this year have been tax and consumer discretionary. definitely more of a growth thirsting environment. one of the stocks that has contributed most to the gains is amazon. it is up 32% year to date and getting very close to $1000 a share. it has been pretty rapidly going there. finally, a quick check on the low prices over the past couple days. wake oftioned in the the opec meeting and some disappointment over production cuts not being extended further, we have a today drop now of 1.5%. getting close to $49 a
barrel. vonnie: thank you for that market update. oil recouping some of its losses today after opec's decision to extend supply cuts for nine months. it disappoint investors and sent prices tumbling. theirnvestors defended decision to not prolong cuts be on that. >> from six to nine to 12 and we for hireidered options cuts and allr indications are solid that the optimal.h extension is can be aimed at increasing the amount of cuts or reducing the amount of cuts, it all depends on the market situation and what is needed for the market at that point. believe that to
depoliticize the oil market and do everything that is necessary for stabilizing the market for the benefit of the producers and consumers. innie: manus cranny is vienna, austria and joins us now. what has changed since that decision was made? what are the participants in the market leaders talking about? vonnie, we saw 5% drop yesterday and a smaller cover this morning. we came back and went bid again. we had another one of these notes, dear opec, it isn't enough. i wanted more, sincerely the markets. not my words, but one of our guests. that encapsulates it all. gadfly pieces are out and they encapsulate the moment.
a pale imitation of previous interventions. it lacks conviction. the symbol you see here behind me is that of opec. is a desperation to pull russia and on site? that's the question that markets are asking themselves. i grab my written notes kenexa take written notes at news conferences. about 6, 9, 12 and we considered even higher cuts. the market is set firm at the moment. it just needs confirmation. it's rather on and on short footing. mark: i've seen manus cranny is written notes and they are written. you can't understand. vonnie: that's the problem. mark: it is indecipherable. to words because i know you have got your own exit strategy out of the end and a second.
strategypec's exit when it comes to an end and nine months time? manus: this is what the great debate was last night and afterwards. we did not get this express exit strategy. what we did get was a coalescing of thinking from uae, saudi arabia, and the russians. they are all prepared to do more and that is the message that the market possibly do not get. your not going to get to april next year. you are not going to have 1.8 million barrels dumped back on the market. that would take us back in time to 2014. that would take us back down a miserable road. opec and non-opec have a whole variety of issues on why they don't want to go back there. venezuela is fighting to feed themselves. qatar has the pay for the 2022 world cup.
exit strategy -- they will review. that is the message that came out. vonnie: we would let to stay with you in the and all day, but unfortunately we have to leave it there. that is manus cranny covering the opec meeting. if you want to be that gadfly story he was referencing, check out the bloomberg. mark: sterling falling today and theresa may's party losing ground in the race less than two weeks away. joining us now is bloomberg london bureau chief is emma ross thomas. time. about squeaky bum this is not rude or not he in any way. he would often say it is squeaky bum time and we will get through it. is the squeaky bum time for the conservative party as the polls narrow in some areas 24
percentage points to five today? emma: you could argue that theresa may has been saying that one of the risks to conservatives is that voters would be complacent and bo polls which sh a lead and they would not -- and that polls which show a lead and they would not go out to vote. i will not go to the squeaky bum analogy. the polls were wrong in 2015 and with the brexit referendum. at that time, they were sort of wrong consistently. we did not have a massive shift. talking the pollsters this morning, what they said is that even some of the underlying data in the polls and the samples are that shift is using the same underlying data and we should take notice of that shift. mark: why do we believe the polls have narrowed so much? we know about social care gate. this is the first major poll
after the terrorist incident in manchester on monday. why and how can the polls have narrowed so much? manus: the first shift the polls was last week an -- emma: the first shift in the polls was last weekend and i was after the elderly care plans, which hit traditional tory voters. it is very hard to say how the attack affected things. what the conductor of the polls said today is that the shift appeared to be due more to the elderly care thing than the terror attack. that is because when you look at what people say about who is the better prime minister and who is the better leader in times of crisis and keeping britain safe, theresa may still comes out weigh on top. mark: they comes on the day that jeremy corbyn says the war on terrorism working and criticize the government for squeezing the police budgets.
theresa may and trump looking to squeeze a deal post brexit. to what extent has the relationship been damaged by these leaks that have been a big part of the news flow in recent days? emma: it is hard to tell. is a story out today saying the special relationship is being strained. it predates these leaks. talk to trump yesterday about it and made it clear that people were not happy. manchester police stopped sharing information with the u.s.. it lasted less than 24 hours, but it's quite significant. rex tillerson was in london today. he repeated the line that they will investigate. perhaps the fact that he is here today suggests their china patch up the relationship. mark: thanks for joining us, bloomberg london bureau chief,
emma ross thomas. vonnie: let's check in on the first word news. .ere's courtney donohoe courtney: the u.s. economy was not so bad in the first quarter after all. it rose to an annual rate of 1.2%. it is the biggest part of the economy and business investment was stronger the first but. 28 coptic christians are dead in egypt after the latest attack on that community. gunmen opened fire on a bus headed for a monastery. bombings at coptic churches on palm sunday that killed three dozen people. in sicily, president trump attending his first group of seven summit. the president's on climate change is at odds with other leaders, but his top economic adviser says president trump is leaning toward the european position that the u.s. mistake
mark: live from london, i am mark barton. vonnie: i vonnie quinn and this is "bloomberg markets." jared kushner is front and center in the fbi's investigation into russian meddling in the u.s. election. this is according to "the washington post." investigators are looking to meetings that custer had with the russian ambassador and a banker from moscow.
bloomberg view executive editor timothy o'brien wrote about the probe. you can view it on your bloomberg and he joins us now from washington, d c. draws the line work on the may becomes a little unethical to actually illegal. timothy: one of the issues is that the investigation is focused on solution the twin the trump presidential campaign -- collusion tween the trump presidential campaign and the kremlin. with jared kushner, you find this extending into a new area. one of the properties is a troubled property that needs to be refinanced. it has debt problems and jared kushner spent the better time of last year trying to lobby a major chinese insurer to invest in the building and get him out of the debt trap. bluedeal recently blue
up. he was introduced by the russian ambassador to the head of the eu veb, one of the biggest banks in russia. we do know that this was during a time where he had concerns about the finances of the building. a question would be -- did he talk to the bank about 666 5th avenue? did he talk about the possibility of lifting sanctions on russia? russia has been under sections as is the bank that jared kushner spoke with. that's because of vladimir putin's incursions in the crimea. you have this confluence of policymaking and dealmaking. vonnie: do we know or will we know if he has been subpoenaed? timothy: based only on the reporting i've read, it does not appear that he has received grand jury subpoenas like paul manafort has an unlike michael
flynn has. it would appear that whatever he is being looked at is a part from what they did. nonetheless, it brings this investigation right into the oval office. mark: is this further ammo for those who believe that the trumps and kushners have been playing fast and loose with the norms and ethics of conflict of interest in its? standards? timothy: i think it does. they have chosen to ignore some of those norms. the president has as has of anke trump and jared kushner in particular. because these guidelines are fairly fluid, it's really an ethical issue in most cases. what has happened though is because they have treated these things so fluidly it has now become part of an fbi investigation.
that could have some problems with that. vonnie: it has been a very difficult week pr wise for jared kushner. it's coming on top of an article from "the new york times" that called him a slumlord in places like baltimore where thousands of properties are being harassed and hounded for past due rent, even if it is small amounts. does he need to worry about optics? timothy: i think they all need to worry about optics. how well this group of people thought through what they were taking on when they pursued the white house and when they entered the white house. , it hasertain extent been amateur hour in washington with a lot of people in the trump administration. a lack of experience, a lack of concern about optics, and clearly a lack of concern about clearly divided the dealmaking from public policymaking. vonnie: bloomberg chief executive editor timothy o'brien
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: i mark barton with the european close literally eight minutes away on this friday. let's get to president trump making his g7 debut. he is meeting with some of america's traditional european allies after a tense meeting with nato leaders yesterday. joining us now from sicily is andrew barton. we are hearing that some of the draft communique is leaking. what do we know so far? andrew: what we're hearing is quite interesting is that the leaders are focusing on a
condensed draft. last year the final communique was 32 pages. people are telling us that this draft maybe 12 pages. some may be as few a six pages. but that really tells us is two things. on one side there is a lot of daylight between the positions of some of the countries including the u.s.. it is trumps first visit here. on issues such as climate change, he remains quite far from some of the other leaders. one thing they might be doing here is by reducing the length of the statement, they can at least agree on some positions. meeting, itcky nato is fair to say it did not go as well as most people hoped. coming to the g7, and they may want to finish on a strong note and at least agree on the six pages and come out united. mark: whether there is disagreement is donald trump's
opinion of exports and hounded cars germany exports to the united states. as we know, has been acknowledged and he used the words to a bad when it comes to flooding the u.s. market with cars. as matt miller referred to this earlier, is this a storm in the teacup? andrew: i don't know if it's a storm in the teacup as perhaps more systematic of the bigger issue, which is that when it comes to globalization and trade and economic policies, we are seeing a big reversal. we are seeing a big change. but other six liters are somewhat perplexed and they are waiting for answers on the united states and they are not getting them. this episode where we had trump perhaps say that germany was battle this issue of somebody came out and walked it back. somebody said that wasn't what he meant. is reallyonfusion showing behind the scenes is a wide division on this issue. that's in part why we are going to see a more condensed
statement this time. the same applies to climate change. we are all waiting to hear what the u.s. position is on the paris accord. vonnie: will whole sections be left out or will there be a one line dismissive throw away that this is something we work on the future? andrew: i don't know. what we're hearing so far for example is that there will be some language on immigration. and the waters behind me, we have migrants who have died by the dozens in the recent days. we hear that there will be some sort of agreement on affirming gender equality as a right. some of the stuff is filtering out and we are picking up bits and pieces. the big ones in terms of economic policies and climate change, we're not have any leaks. it will be interesting to see how much if any ends up in the final statement. mark: thanks for joining us,
andrew barden. take a look at where european equities are faring. five mins away from the end of the friday session. a little change from the stoxx 600. gains in london. why is that? the pound falling in the ftse rising. i'm going to leave you with the currency board. this is the big currency move of the day, what i'm talking about in just a second. the pound down by 1.2% against the dollar, biggest since february. 40 minutes away from the friday session. this is bloomberg. ♪
whether we will finish higher or lower. worst run for a month. we are up by about a 10th of 1% since last wednesday when we had the height of the trump crisis talks post the firing of the former fbi director comey. since then, and fell by one to test 1.2%, the most since september. sterling, the biggest decline since february. we saw a big narrowing in the polls between the government of the conservative party and the labour party. it has moved five percentage points in just a week. was polls suggested the gap as wide as 24 percentage points. consumer confidence slipping to the lowest level since immediately after the breast -- brexit referendum.
do not forget, that comes after the data yesterday showed the economy slowed 2.4% in the last quarter. the longested stretch in almost a year in which the euro stocks 50 and the euro single currency has moved in sync. blue line, euro, white line, euro stocks 50. a sustained positive correlation would signal the reversal of this trend that has been in place since 2014 as the weekend exchange rate has boosted -- that is a fascinating chart. i would like to finish on something a bit different, japan inflation is certainly interesting. this is japan inflation going back to 2013, look at the four little blue squares showing the core inflation has risen for the fourth consecutive month, up by .3%, the longest run of gains
since mid-2015. it is far below the target of the boj which is 2%, and underlying inflation is flat. growth is picking up in japan but is it enough to change the dynamics of week inflation? but it is hoping it is is a great chart, coming out of this negative inflation era. is it sustainable and are we going to move far quicker to the 2% target? vonnie: look at what i am starting with, dollar-yen, which is weaker. it is worthy of watching simply because the dollar is showing a lot of weakness and you can see that through the dollar index, and currencies like the euro are behind that move. the 10 year yield back up to two and a quarter percent. crude oil futures are back up by to 49.22 sof 1%
maybe the market has stabilized. offshore, 2.381. that looks like a huge difference, but there has been some talk from the pboc about changing the way it does its daily fix and putting in countercyclical measures. cornerstone is saying it might not make that much of a difference and that honestly, versus the won basket of currencies has not changed that much. have a look at the g-20 movers, a couple of big ones, japan. russia and mexico are lower. that is probably the oil talk. becauset's talk stocks, it seems that every day in the u.s. the stocks are hitting new highs. it begs the question, are equities getting a little bit frothy? spencer,s is patrick
vice chairman of equities. called they managers u.s. the most expensive market. 21.5 times earnings is where it is trading. according to bank of america they study 13 valuation models and all but one showed the s&p priced above its long-term average. a couple of points to battery with. --atter you with. ofthat enough to persuade us this rally is getting a little bit long? patrick: we have to remember a forward-looking measure, a valuation where stocks are today and really have come from. i think it is important if you look at first quarter earnings in the u.s., which everyone has sort of brush over, they were up 14% which is i think the highest it has been since 2011, which is phenomenal. people were looking for 6%
growth at the beginning of april so they have blown the doors off earnings, and it is not just buybacks because we had record numbers on the top line. margins are being maintained. in the late 1990's, stocks ran from 30 times to 45 times and you are looking at 18 times next year. everybody talks recently about earnings recession. you are now getting an earnings recovery so the numbers you looking at i think are backward looking. we have got 10% plus earnings gains this year's and that is energy as well. optimistic about the u.s. market. wrote ahamed el-erian great piece where he talks about the rally in stocks. he says the rally has been driven by either the trump trade, reflation flight -- trade, or liquidity trade. how do you split it up?
we have been in very different phases? what phase are we in? patrick: in the late stages of a bull market where you get euphoria, but we have not gotten euphoria yet. that piece were valuations go from 30 to 45, that can run over many years so you are definitely in the late stages, but i still feel that people are extremely cautious. when we have our ceo in town and that baird we manage over $130 billion in high net worth. i asked him how much was being saided cautiously and he over 10% of that money is in cash still because they are worried about 1930's type recession, a 2008 financial --sis, trump, the law, law blah, blah. although it appears on valuation to be expensive, sentiment is still extremely cautious.
as long as the earnings keep running and you see relative earnings, the earnings do not have to be huge. the sentiment just has to be going in the right direction. vonnie: what it not be remiss for investors to be cautious to see vix below 10, back at 985 -- 9.85. it seems there is something out of whack. is there any asset class or sector in equities that makes you just a little bit nervous? patrick: that is a good question. certainly, looking at other asset classes, it has taken 10 years for equities now to start outperforming bonds, which it did when trump was elected last year. i know are getting a little cautious on the technology stocks that have had a hell of a run. yes, certainly some of the
defensive areas we believe are still the wrong place to be because we look for quite strong growth. some of the consumer staples, utilities have been rallying but we are still quite cautious on that group. we like consumer discretionary. we talked about the reflation trade when i was last here and to that basis, we like oil stocks and financials. yes, there are various areas that are getting a little too again, it is about stockpicking and we can find value tech within that group. there are pockets that are overvalued, but generally, we can still find good quality equities at reasonable prices. fall vo -- volo, the
excess amount of capital chasing opportunities resulting in more and not less risk. in normal times, the events in manchester, the cyber attack that affected 200,000 computers, the president firing the fbi director, north korea continuing its provocative actions, in normal times you would expect this to be reflected in volatility in asset prices. what flags should it be waiving this? patrick: the big difference this time around is qe. it has created this huge liquidity and it has got to find a home. i think that home has most run it its course in bonds so equities becomes the next natural place to invest. the weight of money does favor equities and i think the world is slightly different in so much as liquidity has got to find a home. i do agree, it is, certainly the
events, what has been happening around the market i think proves once again that as tragic as these incidences are, the markets, the equity markets only really pay credence or attention to interest rates and earnings. i have explained, those earnings continue to rise. mark: patrick spencer, baird vice-chairman of equities. , nobel coming up prize-winning economist edmund phelps is our guest, delving into the economies of the u.s., germany, and the united kingdom. it is a battle of the beach, they watch faces off against pirates of the caribbean part five. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn, this is the european close. a week from today wall street will be delving into the made jobs report. they expect the jobs to rise $175,000 in the jobless rate to hold at 4%. germany's economy gets to see strength and the u.k. unemployment figure is at the lowest in decades. ,e are joined by edmund phelps nobel prize-winning economist and director of the center on capitalism and society at columbia university, and author of the book mass flirting. i believe this came out in france and that is where you were on this european tour. edmund: and spain. vonnie: getting a closer look at some very troubled labor
economies. we have not seen much improvement in some of the peripheral economies. greece is still about 40% of its youth unemployed. when will we get to a point where european youth are employed to their fullest? edmund: well, that is going to be a very long haul. greece, i understand the more depressed i get about it. talk thatlways this they would be ok if the battle guys in germany and elsewhere in the eurozone would let them increase spending and step up budgetary deficits. but they have got, what is for them, the normal level of deficits now. it is not as if they have been to over the head and told
reduce the deficit. the deficits are already on the long side -- large side. thing i learned just recently about greece is upt wage rates shot way between the years 2000 and 2010. and of story. how can a country possibly have high unemployment when wage rates went through the roof? say,urse you could couldn't we get the wage rates down again? that is very difficult to do, so i think greece has made two mistakes. let wage rates get completely out of hand and secondly, it left the budgetary -- let the
budgetary deficit get out of hand and now it is screaming about getting control of that. vonnie: if you take the u.s., we have sort of a strange problem here as well. 4.4%nemployment rate at but that is not the whole story. we keep hearing from the administration that they want to bring you six and you three together. we hear from the federal reserve there is slack in the labor market. we are not seeing wage growth or inflation here either, so what's all this? -- what solves this? edmund: there are a lot of puzzles there. theink the headline is that u.s. has had a great recovery. the unemployment rate is tremendously low by historical standards. so what is not to like?
there is this long run problem, and that is that people, especially men in the past three or four decades have been deserting the labor force year after year after year. simply a smaller proportion of the labor force who are earning their own way, who have employment. back toink that traces the slow down of productivity growth that began around the 1970's or 1980's or so, which has been absolutely relentless. until we get a hold of this growth problem, we are not going , wee able to do, to deal are not going to be able to get labor force participation back up to a normal level. mark: you are in berlin, i am in
london. an opportune moment to get your thoughts on brexit, the negotiations that will start up and the u.k. election. can you just give me your own unique is the ball on how you on things -- crystal ball how you see things developing in this two-year period and what is the end game going to look like? edmund: i have been thinking a little bit about written on and on and off for the past year. one thing i think a lot of analysts have gotten wrong is they see price inflation itain, which isr amusing because the naysayers, the people who were very nervous about brexit were talking about a depression, and a decline of
prices and a decline of wage rates. none of that has happened. that thered expect is going to continue to be some cutbacks in the financial theor, but i think that rest of the economy has a chance of doing reasonably well. i was just going to say -- yeah? vonnie: just finish it off. thatd: just wanted to add reports of rising prices in britain is not entirely good news, because it could be that with the pound week, producers
are raising their markups and that is obviously bad for wages and bad for employment. we will have to watch that and see how that is going. vonnie: thank you so much for taking the time to talk to us. that is nobel prize-winning economist, director of the , edmundn capitalism phelps. mark: in french and in spanish. should you take a swim with johnny depp's pirates of the caribbean five or the rock's baywatch? it is a quandary vonnie is facing. vonnie: you could do both. there is nothing stopping you. which one to do first. ♪
york, this is the european close. a long weekend in the u.s. and the u.k., for once we are doing things at the same time. disney's caribbean -- pirates of the caribbean part five and paramount's baywatch premier this weekend. let's bring in paul sweeney. awayld not tear my eyes from the ads. if you had to pick one, which? paul: the early tracking says pirates of the caribbean will not -- will be another big smash for walt disney. coming out of the paramount studio is kind of a kitschy name, and certainly one from back in the 1990's that people remember fondly, so the expectations are uncertain. vonnie: i have to ask if david hasselhoff is in it. paul: i am sure he is making a
cameo, but this is all about the rock and his audience. there is a very well-known indian actress in the movie as well, so that in shores it should play well and a large market like india as well. this is one the studio hopes will play on a global basis. mark: viacom's paramount needs it more. pirates is pretty much guaranteed, and disney has a lot of other franchises. looking at the other studios and the releases coming out the season, you have sony's spiderman, warner's wonder woman, dunkirk. there is some big films and success is paramount, to coin a phrase, for some of these studios more than others. ,aul: you mentioned paramount of the big studios they are clearly the weakest. they have had a big change in management, they fired their ceo , so they really need to reinvigorate that studio.
, we willanagement start seeing the output from them in the next year, but they would love to have a sleeper hit in baywatch. that would turn their fortunes around, maybe just for more al. studios, summer is about 30% to 40% of their box office so they tend to load a lot of their franchise movies into the summer to drive domestic growth and global growth. vonnie: pirates of the caribbean has had tons of sequels and some worked better than others. baywatch, this is the first time it is coming back. should that make a difference? paul: a non-franchise movie like baywatch, the odds are much longer than i franchise movie. they are banking on a name that has had a global brand in reruns and syndication, the television show, so it is a brand that is
well-known, the characters are well known globally. the rock has played very well globally, so they hope those two things will make it a success. vonnie: does he have a sidekick? paul: zac efron is in this one. sweeney,hanks to paul north america director of research for bloomberg. mark: i am going to see king arthur. it needs the money desperately. let's check out how european equities finished the friday session. it was a day of declines, not for the ftse. the weak sterling boosted the ftse. ♪
♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg "real yield ." up, chair yellen has a plan to unwind a $4.5 trillion balance sheet. the u.s. economy's first quarter was not so miserable after all but a big upward revision fails to shake treasuries. opec, whatever it takes falls on deaf ears. with a big issue, chair yellen's campaign