tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 30, 2017 10:00am-11:01am EDT
with makings start economic data in the united states. we have personal income and spending and now consumer confidence. here is julie hyman. julie: in terms of consumer confidence, we are seeing a theing up 117.9, lower than 119.5 estimated, and also worse than the 120.3 that was recorded in the prior month in the april. consumer confidence is weakening to some extent is still remains at a relatively high level. -- 117.9 from 119.4 from 119.4. we did see a rise but at a lower rates, someone to compare them. we do see some correlation. it has tightened since mid-2016.
but between consumer confidence in white and spending and blue, slowed lastspending month, so it isn't surprising we saw a drop in consumer confidence. if you bring it back to stocks, you are not seeing much movement. the nasdaq, if it rises, it will be a record close. the s&p 500 and the dow jones falling back a little today, but the nasdaq is continuing its winning streak. a part of that is notable to talk about amazon because the stock for the first time ever touched $1000 a share before falling below that level. it rose as high as $1000.80. right now, it is still up 32% year to date. we are taking a look at oil as we move the on and the opec meeting -- move beyond the opec meeting.
traders waiting to see what kind of effect the production of extension cuts will have. we also have analyst calls out on various oil companies downgraded from neutral tough buy, partially devaluation call on that stock. morgan stanley out with a note on refiners same there is downside risk to u.s. refining margins into the summer. folks over at morgan stanley are upgrading and downgrading valero nearlyl weight, down by 2%. there is a deal in the energy industry. the world's second-largest offshore rig contractor or market value buying that would oceanic -- buying atwood oceanic. we are talking about the value of 10.72 per share. one of the reasons this is an important deal is it is the largest we have seen since the oil market crash nearly three years ago, specifically offshore
companies have been hit hard by the downturn in oil prices, so notable we have that big deal today. mark: we are down for a fourth consecutive day, the worst losing run since only march. digesting a dovish ecb president's, mario draghi, molding the prospects of the elections in italy, but we are down about .5 today. london and u.k. stocks, this is the ftse, the white line, blue line, germany, dax, purple line, the aramex at -- the xmi. despite the manchester bomb attack and despite the upcoming election, the ftse has outperformed its main peers. interesting comments today from jpmorgan, raising u.k. stocks from neutral to underweight. this aid is a defensive market with a high dividend yield and
should perform better in the background of potential softening and activity indicators lower and continued range on blend deals. up 5%.e is the sterling is up today. it could be setting up for a swoon, according to mark cranfield. it is a 10 day moving average. the other line crosses below the 21 day moving average, which is the blue line. if it repeats previous moves since february, where we saw 600 top to bottom slide after a similar confirmation in december, a similar setup was marked with almost 800 and he says this is the beginning of a similar cycle and could extend below $1.25.
gap between the parties had shrunk to 5%. i have got this lovely charts, g 8942.you will see a lot of this ahead of next week's election. bloomberg implied conservative party majority. how many seats will the conservative party when looking at telephone and online polls? we are up to 40. and of last week we were down to below 10. look at one month ago, 200.how things have changed but equally awaiting next thursday's vote. vonnie: yes, and we were speaking about that and will be speaking later in the program, as well. james bullard warns that washington needs to deliver on the policy expectations that have driven markets higher since the election. he also agrees with recent thatnts with sean williams
the process of unwinding the fed's balance sheet should coming baby steps. our colleagues on bloomberg daybreak: asia asked for his thoughts on the matter. >> i think a good thing about unwinding the balance sheet is it will create balance if we need it and on the rate of south, i think we are not far from an appropriate rate for the u.s. economy that will keep inflation not too far from target and the labor market performing well, so what i disagree with is the idea that we have to go 200 basis points higher in order to get to some sort of neutral rate. i do not think that is the environment we are in. i think we can stay about where we are, possibly higher, the today. >> i am not sure if in this student you can see this, but this chart shows what kathleen has been talking about what we have heard, which is we have a hot jobs market but inflation numbers seem to the cooling,
whether you are looking at cpi or core cpi, i am curious, why is it that you are the outlier among the fed speakers we have seen? we hear from others to echo what seem to be the consensus, which is two more hikes this year. what do you see that they do not? >> i think those inflation numbers have been a little bit surprising so far in 2017. you can see in that chart they are all down on a year-over-year basis. we have been arguing that we have been making progress toward our 2% inflation goal, but these have been going in the opposite direction in the early months of 2017. i also think in the first quarter, we have got a relatively weak gdp to report -- gdp report but even with a revision, i think the first half of 2017 of the relatively
of arounddp growth 2%, so the idea that the economy is growing a lot faster than trend and this will push up and nation, i do not think is matching up with the numbers we are seeing. furthermore, inflation expectations actually started to our march rate increase and that is an important variable to keep track of in this discussion. >> you are speech you talked about the fact that inflation has been missing the targets for five years and it is about 4.5% below where it would have been otherwise. we have a charts, it is basically showing volatility, inflation, the headline going back to 1995 through 2012.is the fed at risk of being blamed for missing the inflation target, for not
letting the economy go fast enough week as it has been missing that target so badly the last five years and the economy is in recovery, past the recession and the fed is talking about more rate hikes? >> i did put this price level chart in my speech. the trend i like to look at is the 1995 to 2012 trend in the u.s. acres to start in 1995 that is about the time with a consensus formed we would target 2% inflation. as of 2012, when i originally used the chart, we were right on the price path and that gave me confidence we have pursued a good policy. that, ther i gave price level started to fall and in the last five years, we have drifted lower because inflation has not met are 2% target. now, the price level is almost 5% off the price level path.
if you think that price level targeting is off of monetary policy, which is what a lot of the retells us, it doesn't look -- which is what a lot of theory tells us, he doesn't look as good today as 2012. it may be concerned and worrisome we are off that path. jim bullard was speaking exclusively on bloomberg daybreak: asia. speaking of inflation, data in this morning. core inflation at 1.5% year over year. that was down from a revised rate of 1.9% in last month's report. let's check in on first word news. curious emma chandra. emma: president trump is criticizing germany. on twitter, he says the u.s. has a massive trade deficit with germany and they play part -- and they pay far less than they should the nato.
he says it is very bad. the u.s. but it will change. there has been speculation the president is going to shake up his white house staff and his communications director has quit. he served in the post for less than three months and has been working with press secretary sean spicer. the dictator of panama, who was ousted in a u.s. invasion, has died. manuel noriega ran the country from 1983 to 1989. the u.s. accused him of rigging elections, having ties to drug traffickers, and ordering opponents killed. he was arrested in 1989 and spent 22 years and u.s. and french prisons. he was 83. golfer tiger woods said medication, and not alcohol, led to his arrest for driving under the influence. jupiter,rested in florida, and spent four hours and jail before being released. he blames an unexpected reaction to prescription medicine and
underwent a fourth operation on his back in april. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. mark: coming up, oil dropping awaiting opecrs cuts. we will assess the latest slump. plus, an exclusive interview with phil falcone. he is back, putting his money to work. find out where. right here on bloomberg television. ♪
mark barton. vonnie: from new york, i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. oil is beneath two dollars a barrel in new york trading and the dollar is fluctuating as traders return from the long holiday weekend. joining us to discuss is a chief market strategist at bubba trading. tod, you see the market isn't focused on opec and it is irrelevant to wti. .> good morning i think it is irrelevant. i think you can see by the trading action over the last seven months when this first announcement came out, oil spiked up and the next i was $52 and we have gone up again. we do not -- we are not being held hostage with wti. they will try to artificially put the price higher than they would pump. they are going up week by week
as you will keep pumping oil. again, the opec is a phony organization anyway. they do not follow the guidelines to begin with. i think opec has no meaning other than a quick pop here and there. vonnie: do we see prices continue to fall, and if that is what is going to happen, why haven't they fallen already? "bloomberg daybreak we stash todd: we saw last thursday, --todd: we saw last thursday, you can see the downside. i think that oil doesn't become $40. until it is around i think we have that coming and there will be rallies here and there between at but as long as the downtrend remains, which is what we have had since the first of opec, and until that changes, you will want to continue to be selling oil because there is no real reason to put out. we have a 200 years supplying
the ground to get to, so i think there is no issue. vonnie: what about the dollar because it has been consolidating the last 12 and it is difficult to know which way will go with the comments on trade from president trump? todd: i think the dollar has been weak and we overpriced -- we overpriced it and i think it will trade down before it starts to work back up and make a run back to -- run back.s oil prices should continue to fall. if the dollar runs back to the highs they made last year, i think you are seeing dollar weakness and that is the story. vonnie: what traits a liking today? todd: i am looking to sell oil and i am looking to sell dollars on a rally. i would like oil to be around , but 50 wouldown
be a great sale for me. if you look at the dollar, i 98.5.ally back to 98 or that is what you are going to see the bigger picture, a weaker dollar, weaker oil, touches and the right relationship but that is the way they look now. -- todd horwitz, thank you. mark: time for the bloomberg business flash. commercial nuclear accident in the u.s. will close on or near september in 2019. an island in pennsylvania still has a reactor operation. to the london stock exchange the price is 680 family and dollars in cash.
it includes cost to yield. plans to raise $20 billion when he is cleared to review managing other people's money. that would include most of his family's $11 billion. managing barred for outside money until 2018. his former firm pleaded guilty to securities fraud and paid $1.8 billion in fines and converted to a family office. bloombergur latest business flash. coming up, we are looking at whether holding a pressure etf means you have ties to russia, as one new story suggested. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ mark: this is bloomberg markets. i am mark barton in london. vonnie: in new york, i am vonnie quinn. segment our etf data great we are looking at russia. here is julie hyman. a russian etfning mean investors have "ties to russia"? this was a claim made by a recent article in the guardian newspaper. joining me is a senior etf analyst at bloomberg intelligence, almost socially conscious investing question that if you invest in a russian etf, are you condoning the political actions of brescia? -- actions of russia? is that the argument regarding was making and what below the -- and what validity does it have? >> about 20% of the russia etf polled sanction companies --
hold sanction companies. a few things i thought were mischaracterized, the headline says congressman gene forte anforte hadad -- gi ties to russia and context is important. russia etf's he held accounted to 1% of his financial disclosure and .1% of his net worth and they were part of that emerging-market strategy because he also had single country etf's for indonesia, poland, so there was a microstrategy going on. if you look at who else colts the russia etf, you have big state pensions like new jersey, new york, ohio, and insurance companies and they hold 200 pounds with this congressman health. i think that context is important and i have to give credit to an exit etf market
greater who wrote a blog post. we know that congressman made some is by getting into an altercation with a supporter but nobody thought to deconstruct this article and i thought they did a good job of doing that and they made a good point. julie: was the original guardian post -- i mean, has this been a topic of discussion before in the etf community, whether it is about russia or other etf's that may have politically controversial holdings? >> know, this has never been done before. there are a lot of people who .ight want to own russia the goal is to make money for investing. part of it could be to avoid certain things. a good example is the state of tennessee, a pension that purposely uses single country etf's to avoid russia and china. you could use them to go along russia or avoid it. the point is these are vehicles
to be used but the allocation is so small that i think it is important to note it isn't ties toeaning having russia, but you could avoid it if you don't want anything to do with it. julie: let's get to the smart data. is a stealth rsx smart data etf, how? the first to market but people do not understand it has a unique weighting methodology. russian companies in the mist in the u.s., they are not in the index, so are a sex includes tech companies listed here that includes tech companies listed here. huge difference and it will definitely dictate the returns, so something investors should note, but usually it is not the first market but it was in this case. vonnie: looking at the year to date charts --
julie: looking at the year to date chart, they do track closely. >> pretty close, but this one is up 4% over the other. energy in particular, that makes it much more exposed to the oil , you haved with rsx a little bit. julie: thank you. vonnie: julie hyman, thank you for that. still ahead, president trump sends a warning to angela merkel, saying the u.s. trade deficit with germany will change. we are live in germany with the chancellor's response. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> consumer spending in the u.s. signals a second quarter rebound is on track. purchases reached 4/10 of 1% in april. the most since december. still, the fed's preferred gauge of inflation did slow down and it is below the 2% annual target. state isd, the islamic claiming responsibility for a deadly car bomb attack. eckstein people were killed and 20 people wounded in the midnight explosion outside a popular ice cream shop. it comes during the holy month of ramadan where muslims fast during daylight hours. another car bomb exploded at a public office. 12 people were killed. in the u.k. prime minister theresa may is battling complacency just a week before the election. one poll shows the conservative's lead over labor has slipped to just five points. they argue that jeremy corbyn
can't be navigated -- be trusted to navigate the right to negotiations. in recent days, may has backed health social care and insurance. economic sentiment in the euro area fell in may for the first time this year. executive and consumer sentiment remains close to its highest level in a decade. the decline was led by the weaker readings in the retail sectors. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thanks. president donald trump is blasting germany again over defense, ratcheting up his feud with chancellor angela merkel. the president tweeting "we have a trade deficit with germany. they pay far less than they should on nato and the military. this will change." it came after merkel met with india's prime minister modi.
she was asked about the future of relations with the u.s. >> our transatlantic relationship is of the utmost importance. due tosaid recently is the fact that in the face of the present circumstances we have, additional reasons for us to realize that we have to take our fate in our own hands in europe. vonnie: bloomberg's chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli traveled with the president last week and he met with merkel and other leaders. he joins us from washington and from our berlin bureau is reporter patrick donahoe. patrick, we are learning more about angela merkel's stance regarding all of this, from the closed-door caucus meeting. can you bring us up-to-date? >> merkel has been addressing us a week.
she was at a beer tent at a campaign rally where she raised the issue of reliability and the issue of relations between germany and europe and the united states. she hasn't back down. -- hasn't backed down. she spoke today at a press conference with the indian prime minister and called india a reliable partner. she addressed this once again, saying this transatlantic relation is important but there are other relations too. vonnie: kevin cirilli, where does this go? odd days left30 and she started tweeting up about other things. vonnie: that is on the paris accord. trump has tweeted he is going to make that decision sometime later this week. let's take a step back with a relationship with the german chancellor. we are never on the campaign
trail, they had a war of words but we also remember when chancellor merkel visited the white house and seemingly had a reset of the tense relationship between president trump and chancellor merkel. but this past week, on that foreign trip, they seemed to take a step back, as evidenced by the new report of the comments she made to lawmakers. i don't think that we can bypass the notion that former president barack obama was speaking on foreign soil in germany during the president's first foreign trip. the sources i speak with inside the white house as well as president trump's political board in washington were frustrated about that. but in terms of what we saw at ae g7, there is clearly division in the worldview between these global leaders and the notion that they were going to be able to work together on trade, on things like auto manufacturing, which seemingly
would not heal during the tense g7 summit. mark: patrick, i put it to you. does that mean chancellor merkel's strategy now is trying to forge a coalition among those other g7 and g-20 members? on issues like trade and climate and at the g-20 summit in hamburg in july? >> i think she tried to form a coalition. about a g7 talking on whether the u.s. would stay with the paris climate records. she's got a bigger job in the g-20. there are more actors involved. she just met with the indian prime minister so she is speaking with the chinese premier this week in terms of the u.s. president -- the timing of this tweet -- there is nothing really new and it along the lines of what he said for a while now. the question is, did she provoke them? mark: it is a busy week, as the
president just got back and he has tweeted today the senate should act on health and taxes quickly. it is the nuclear option, isn't it? the senate should switch it to 51 votes immediately. how likely? prominent republicans, ly within the senate don't favor going that route, particularly john mccain. congress is not in session this week. they have back channel meetings, but back channel is apparently the word of the day in washington because all eyes are focusing on the president's son-in-law, jared kushner, who president trump defended in interview with the new york times. the consultants i have spoken with in washington, several of whom are actually working in tangent with the white house, feel that this jared kushner problem is only going to escalate. president trump tried to get out ahead of it with his tweet, re-tweeting a news article from fox and friends, suggesting that jared kushner didn't
particularly try to go about that back channel, but clearly, of unanswered lot questions. the deputy director of medications announcing resignation, this could be the start of a shakeup in the communications operation. vonnie: so what takes priority this week? slow day in washington in terms of the president's public schedule but he clearly wants to move the ball forward on tax reform and health care. congress isn't in session, so somewhat full of a week. the big story out of washington is the potential for a shakeup as the president tries to reset the narrative and get out on offense on what has been a firestorm of accusations against his white house coming off of his first international trip. mark: let's finish with you coming back to the merkel-trump, europe-your res -- europe-u.s. relations ship. as we approach the national elections in september.
>> it is playing out as one would expect. trump is not popular here. any tough position from merkel, with respect to the u.s. well,stration goes over there was a lot of speculation over whether her beer tent remarks were directed towards the german electorate, although she would not be naive enough to not think it would go far beyond berlin, music, outside germany. ,onnie: we can talk about this and potentially it is only rhetoric, just posturing. but when it comes to leading weo commitments, though, show that germany doesn't actually meet the 2% in the u.s. does pay far more. how should that get resolved? as far as just making some rhetorical comments on not counting on other countries, was germany doing to rectify this?
>> this is something nato leaders have talked about for years now. the 2014 summit agreement was 2% byato members were to the middle of the decade, and merkel stands by the 2% threshold. it will be difficult for germany to get there but right now, they are committed to it. .hat is what they assumed they had agreed with u.s. negotiators ahead of the nato summit last week. this is burden sharing, do percent target -- the 2% target. what we saw in brussels was trump coming down hard on nato allies, demanding they pay more now. vonnie: patrick, thank you for that. thanks to both of our guests. kevin cirilli and patrick donahoe. up, touring right italy with bloomberg as he prepares to meet with president
vonnie: live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: in london, i am mark barton. this is bloomberg markets on bloomberg television. time for the business flash with some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. intel has escalated the battle fornst amd in the market personal computer processors. the company unveiled the powerful chip. they will sell chips under a new core i 9 brand. china investment corporation is the front runner to buy european logistics business
logicore. logicore is owned by blackstone group. opened's commerzbank has up 3000 employees. the familiar with the matter say $34,000r includes a sweep to cut 9600 jobs over the next four years. mark: that is your latest bloomberg business flash. vonnie: time now for our bloomberg quick take where we get context and background on issues of interest. leaders are looking at choosing not to make any significant policy changes on the issue of climate. it might just be the world's most controversial universal idea. the united nations declared it inalienable human rights. the discord starts when it comes to who deserves sanctuary. whether they can
survive the flood of refugees and the backlash of antipathy towards outsiders in some countries. still taking off, u.s. resident donald trump issues an executive order temporarily freezing entry from anyone from muslim countries. u.s. judges still put the restrictions on hold. europe nationalist politicians have gained strength by questioning the wisdom of accepting refugees. attacks on europe and the u.s. by killers linked to or inspired by the islamic state have sparked fear that future terrorists lurk among those requesting sanctuary. here is the background. the 1951 u.n. convention on the status of refugees and the 1957 protocol are the modern legal framework for asylum. that defines refugees as people who can show they have been persecuted at home due to race, religion, nationality, political conviction, or social work.
agreements in the u.s., africa and south america expands those two fleeing genuine eyes -- generalized crimes. politicians can worry that taking in refugees and lead not only to terrorism but to higher crime and unemployment rates. some of it argues that the u.s. for screening of potential troublemakers. but the priors stressed the obligation to protect the vulnerable. many note that they are fleeing the terrorism of the uni islamic state. some say they are so arbitrary they amount to refugee roulette. you can read more on the bloomberg. mark: vietnam's prime minister is set to meet with president trump in washington on wednesday. the prime minister spoke exclusively to bloomberg in hanoi before leaving for the u.s.
>> my visit aims to promote the comprehensive partnership between vietnam and the united states for wider scope and added substance including bilateral, regional, and international. >> will you be pushing for bilateral free-trade agreements even that the u.s. has pulled out of tpp? >> after the u.s. withdrew from the tpp, vietnam and the u.s. have restarted the framework issues ofto maintain common interest related to economic and trade matters. we respect president trump's decision with regards to trade and we want to make sure we can convince him that this is a mutually beneficial relationship for both sides. and american consumers benefit and prefer these products that vietnam makes to the u.s. market. >> are you saying you are
confident in concluding a free-trade agreement, a bilateral free trade agreement with the u.s? noting that president trump has called vietnam a trade sheet because of the trade deficit with the u.s. in anye is no cheating kind of product that we export to the united states, whether it he -- we have access to prove it. i would like to stress that besides exporting to the united states, we now import from the u.s., including airplanes, engine turbines, down to the ag maize.ucers like imports from the u.s. will increase as we will sign billion dollars -- billions of dollars in meaningful and high-value
products from the united states that will help create american jobs. >> how concerned are you about protectionism? >> the is non-is a big supporter of free trade and we want to make sure that all people and countries benefit from free trade. we have established, at the same time, a wide network of partners with 12 already signed and four under negotiation. i can guarantee businesses would not be in vietnam if they didn't see businesses and profit. >> talking about a closer economic relationship with the u.s., what more would you like to see the u.s. -- what role would you like to see the u.s. play in areas like the south china sea? would you like to see more? >> the annan and the united
states and other countries in the region and the world want to in whichuth china sea the freedom of navigation and aviation is insured and the u.n. convention on the law of the seas from 1982 is observed. >> will that require more u.s. presence or not? >> i think that we would need to it together. and with the stakeholders, make sure all parties would benefit from whatever action we decide to take to ensure peace in this area. mark: vietnam's prime minister speaking exclusively to bloomberg. heare: still ahead, we from a chair on a carrier hitting an all-time high and a competing carrier, british airways, at a more luxury level suffering a computer meltdown. this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton along with vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg markets. vonnie: well, shares of ryanair high todayll-time after earnings rose 6% since europe's discount. ceo michael o'leary joined bloomberg earlier. we did well. >> this is where europe had a lot of security issues. you had the bombings in nice and brussels. we had 6% earnings per share, and we are up 14%. this year, a more benign outlook with earnings growth by about 8%. cost will be slightly down. we are saving on few -- fuel.
>> what about things like load factor in excess capacity? how does it look from your point of view? >> we operate at the low price and. -- low price end. think we will maintain at 94%. people are moving around to get our cheap fares and events like what happened over the weekend can only be good for our business. largerline is four times and we don't expect to have some kind of i.t. issue that they have struggled with. you have to wonder where their disaster recovery program was. >> was it a better weekend for michael o'leary than it usually is? >> events like that don't help at the weekend because we rose at 98%. take disrupted passengers, but we are certainly seeing bookings into june-july-august where people are not willing to take the risk of being stranded by ba at heathrow. >> when alex took the role of british airways, what they meant
by that was putting the emphasis on cost away from customer services. before, we talk about the evolving nature of the ryanair business. give him some advice. can you get costs down with customer service? don't -- weion, we have the newest aircraft in the lowest fares. you have the always getting better program. now we do bags and catering and all kinds of services people expect. we don't accept a trade-off on customer service with cost. the problem with ba is the talk about cutting costs but they never cut airfares. the fares are still high. traffic isair, air becoming commoditized. the lowest cost is ryanair. our unit cost went down by five points last month.
>> so as you look at long-term growth for ryanair, is it taking more market share in europe or expanding outside? >> for us, we are absolutely within europe. but the opportunities are falling in the door. we have chapter 11 in italy. berlin -- air berlin is being taken over by lufthansa in germany. in europe, nobody can compete with ryanair on price or cost and nobody can compete with us on customer service either. >> are you concerned about brexit and that cutting into travel? >> brexit is a real issue for us. i think people are not yet focused on the impact of brexit. they have no plan b whatsoever. if you take what theresa may is saying at the moment and saying, we are not going to buy, you are out of open skies.
are out of open skies, you can do it bilateral within the next 18 months. i think there is no possibility they won't negotiate bilateral within 18 months. census, no one fled to europe after march 19. i think there is a real prospect for a couple of weeks after march 19 to have no flight to and from the u.k. vonnie: michael o'leary, ryanair's ceo. mark: coming up on the european close, following stocks. 35 minutes until the end of the tuesday session. london back after yesterday's bank holiday decline in london. benchmark stoxx 600, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: he wrote a top stories we are covering from the bloomberg and around the world. in the u.k. election, both candidates showing vulnerabilities. jeremy corbyn struggling to answer questions on how he would pay for child care under prime minister theresa may's hard-line talk making the u.k. a leading stock in europe. -- a laughingstock in europe. a rocky start to the week for president donald trump, dealing departure and questions over his son-in-law's connection to russian businesses. another shrugging off day today. euro area economic confidence falling for the first time this year. how the numbers will impact their next decision for these three presidents. mario draghi.