tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg May 30, 2017 9:00pm-10:01pm EDT
♪ i am haidi lun. i am rishaad salamat coming to you from bloomberg's headquarters in hong kong. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." haidi: signs of stabilization on the factory floor in china, manufacturing defying expectations of a weaker reading. flat start at best for markets in the asia-pacific,
investors reassessing the taste and direction of the federal reserve. the governor said week policy might force them to alter plans. shares: jeff bezos, topping $1000, a sign of the growing power of e-commerce. , let'sg news, china pmi get straight to chart, #8228. what we have had is a slight fall back in manufacturing, the number above 50 indicating expansion, below, contraction. 51.2, slightly better than had been expected. that does not tell the whole story, does it? that's right. it is slightly better than expected. that wee suggestions
are past the peak when it comes to this china growth story over the past 6-12 months. the other part is how small companies and china are doing, #8223, the small company index suggesting an improvement for the first time since mid-2014. we will get a better cage when we get the unofficial pmi tomorrow. they tend to track these smes. the official numbers looking at figure state-owned companies. steve.: i am with he has been pouring through the numbers. how does this all breakdown. >> i want to pick up on the smes. is an index showing confidence waning, standard indexred confidence heading for a second consecutive month of declines. smes isccess for tougher, funding costs have
get the pmi you number tomorrow. 51.2 is slightly better than expected. instead of peaking, maybe we have plateaued, for one month at least. , again, theeak , they areng campaign tackling the risks in the economy while the economy has stabilized. , we hadlem in april output subindex new orders export orders, also in. is the future indicated? >> new export orders going these havel declines.
let's change the pains to nonmanufacturing. again, we were expecting moderation there because not only is it services them about banking and construction. construction is what has been holding this economy up. rishaad: fiscal stimulus you could argue. >> the construction index rose to 61.6 in april, while services fell to 52.6. that's the story, isn't it? thank you, steve. steve will have a more detailed look later. 26 minutes away from the start of the session in hong kong and shenzhen, but other markets coming on stream. the aussie reacting to the latest pmi data out of china , a second day high,
which could set of bullish tone when it comes to the equity session. heating in on the gmm map, the asx 200, a marginal gain after that rise on tuesday. kospi leading, carmakers striking in tokyo, a stronger yen weighing on even in the face of factory output data showing a rebound when it comes to the april figure. trading volumes in tokyo are 20% below the 30 day average given that the yen strength. ftsee seeing green on the and the taiex, up .1%. looking at commodities, gold extending declines, base metals on the decline, just below $52 a barrel for brent, a second
monthly drop. goldman sachs cutting its forecast for brent and new your crude. j.p. morgan has cut their forecast for brent and wti by $10 a barrel for the next year. at the g 20's space, the currency markets, the pound very much in focus, slumping for the first time in a week. the conservative party could lose out as indicated by the polls in the june 8 election. we do have the euro slipping after touching 112 overnight. the mexican peso falling after tumbling the most in three weeks. atuick check on the yen 110.93. haidi: the yen holding steady after those three days of strengthening. thank you so much for that. let's get first word news with rosalind chin in hong kong. rosalind: the fed governor
brainard said inflation makes them rethink in the face of rate ises even the global outlook frightening and the u.s. economy show strength. it underlines the fed problem with unemployment at a post crisis low. policy decisions more complicated. however, he said it is to alread early to make that call. >> i see some signs that the economy is in the neighborhood of full employment, and signs the tentative progress on inflation may be slowing. if that tension between employment and the lack of progress on inflation persists, it may lead me to reassess the expected path of policy in the future, although it is premature to make that call today. rosalind: president trump has attacked germany again, ratcheting up a dispute that is becoming personal and undermining a transatlantic bond that is a bedrock of
transatlantic relations. the president criticized the u.s. trade deficit with the germany and sent berlin pays less than it should. he added, this will change. chancellor angela merkel admitted that transatlantic relations are strained at the weekend. north korea has released pictures of its latest missile launch. equippedrocket was with upgraded automation and hit a target seven meters wide in the east sea. the pentagon said it successfully intercepted a mock icbm in the skies above california. it was destroyed in midair. japan and north korea's closest ally china discuss the launch of talks in tokyo. the state chancellor beginning a three-day visit, saying tensions can only be resolved through negotiations. the japanese foreign minister said the arrival was timely and stressed the importance of their talks as north korean
provocations reach a new level. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i am rosalind chin. rishaad: nice one. one new feature is our interactive tv function. bloomberggo> on the terminal to watch us live and see previous interviews and dive into any of the securities and bloomberg functions we mentioned. you can become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during the show. this is for bloomberg subscribers. do check it out, tv . haidi: great function. still to calm, live in beijing to the morgan stanley china exportso find out why from china could see the best year since 2012. , ahaad: just coming up german plastics maker for its
rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. haidi: amazon has truly delivered for jeff bezos. his personal fortune has left almost $21 billion this year at the stock surges towards and tops $1000. the stock is up 40% from a year ago and double-dip 15% gain of the s&p 500. power's success shows the of e-commerce. its market value of $470 billion is twice that of walmart. fired theber has executive at the center of a legal spat with his former employer, alphabet. he was hired to lead uber self
driving program after spending years at googles unit. waymo sued uber claiming he stole trade secrets and patents. he was given a stock option worth $250 million when hired, and it was forfeited on his departure. traders have bond called no witnesses at the trial. are schapiro and to others betting that the prosecution evidence will be too weak to convict them. the three men did not take the stand. they are being accused of lying to customers about the price of mortgage bonds. a verdict is expected within a week. german plastics is seeing a rise in demand for its products. china is trying to drive into green energy. joins us right here in the studio to discuss expansion plans in this part of the world. thank you for joining us.
tell us about this. that is why do are in town. you are positive on china, positive on india. >> we are indeed positive on china and increasing the positive on india. it was a right decision to put a strong footprint in china by 15 years ago. now we are benefiting from that because you are seeing the largest growth rate in the chinese market. rishaad: what are you seeing in particular here? part of the movies screen energy, but beyond that. driven by they five-year plan of the chinese government, but beyond that because all the megatrends like urbanization, increase in mobility are driving demand for our products, predominantly lightweight, insulation, energy sufficiency that we are supporting. rishaad: you have manufacturing in china as well. you have a joint venture with other people. how does that work out for you
doing business? >> first of all, it is important to be close to customers. therefore, we need production helps where our customers are, therefore the investment 15 years ago and the construction for the last decade or so to put a footprint, a production footprint, into china and shanghai was an important decision. now we are benefiting from that because we are seeing for -- demand for poly carbonates and urethane. rishaad: you have a plan that is coming up that comes on stream 2019 or thereabouts. >> we already have a strong production capacity. we just announced we will increase production capacity and poly carbonate by 15% and come on stream gradually as we see the man growing 2019-2020. haidi: you spoke about the need to be close to your customers, but in china, it is important to be close to the government.
aspect of find that doing business in the country and how easy or difficult or challenging it is to do with policy which can sometimes seemingly change very frequently? >> honestly, we don't have any reason to complain. what we have seen in the past and today is that the government is supportive. the pro-dex we are producing are in point especially shanghai. has a strongt interest in finding a balance between the services industry chemicals industry, and therefore all the permits we need for production facilities, we get in time, and therefore can produce as much as we want. have done well since the ipo in 2015. what is the path of growth going forward? are you looking at m&a deals? far, our focus has clearly been on organic growth, also given the fact we have been an
independent company for 18 months, we started our journey with debt on our balance sheet and the goal was to reduce the leverage on the balance sheet. that has happened faster than planned come so now we have the opportunity to look at at not only organic growth, but m&a. we don't have a shopping list, but we see the whole market is consolidating and we want to be a consolidator there as well. rishaad: when will you list? >> good question. we are making all the progress we can make. speaking, it does not only depend on us. on the companies to help us. would you consider listing in this part of the world? i don't think german companies have. >> we don't have any plans to list at any other exchanges. we find out all the international investors have
offices in frankfurt, london, or new york, and these are the financial centers that we visit regularly. to someust want to get breaking news crossing the fixingl, the daily yuan after being closed for the holidays. we do have the strongest fixing since may 18. given that weing have the u.s. dollar trading sideways. we are still trying to get more details about how this proposed , this countercyclical adjustment factor that was announced last week, how that will play into the fixing and doesn't make it arguably less market oriented. let's get back to our guest. i want to continue to talk about emerging-market strength. wanting greater expansion into india.
tell us more about that. ago,, but nowars with political reforms, tax reforms, we do see potential there. we have had a footprint in india , not a production one, but about 100 people there for about a decade and are hopeful we will see demand takeoff in india, and therefore offering as more growth in the past decade or so. indi: with so much capacity the pipeline or plans, how do expect that will impact pricing? far we have seen a situation where demand was growing faster than supply. we have quite a bit of visibility because the construction process takes 5-7 years, so therefore most of our
markets we see stable margins because the demand-supply balance will hold or is going to develop in our favor. lessad: couple of questions, brexit, how do you plan for that? >> we should not be affected too much strictly as a company because we only generate 2% of revenues in the u.k. the impact on the global economy and the european economy is unpredictable, so therefore we prepare for it as much as we can. rishaad: you don't know what it is, that is the problem here, but industrial capability in britain? >> we don't have a production footprint there. rishaad: you sell into that. >> we do sell into britain 2% of revenues, so it should not be a major impact on our overall economic status. rishaad: why is your company called covestro? >> it is a bit of the hen and
the egg problem. it is collaboration in investment and strong. covestro that is where comes from. rishaad: that is really tenuous. thank you indeed. , a combination of collaboration, investment, and strong. genius. thank you, frank. to watch, the stocks investors returning after that public holiday. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
the index in the pre-auction up a fraction. hang seng futures indicating a more pronounced rise, but not that much. shanghai, a pharmacy a making apparently according to sky news an inquiry about participating in a bid for body shop. there have been some talk about this initial price target being one billion euros. some saying that price is "widely optimistic c." near 700istically million euros. on the 21st of april, private equity company said to be the
next round of bids for body shop and perhaps renhe pharmacy is one to watch. itdi: fewer headlines when comes to these high profile chinese acquisitions abroad this year. certainly that is one we are watching. i'm looking at this e-commerce outfits. they have had a hard time. the stock fell 22% after it was targeted by short-sellers report , saying the allegations made in the short seller article are biased, inaccurate, and liz leading, so that just about covers it. take a look how that stock is bouncing back. 22%re down 30% due to that selloff in the wake of that report there. cogobuy have said they actually made that known to
shenzhen-based police. 7%haad: lenovo premarket, up , trading volume surging. is why, 50 reason times the 30 day average of the number of shares traded. since theis up 13.5% additional equity offering in june last year. i guess people sometimes think it is cheap. it is trading at 14 times trading. that's all we have in terms of pe of 12 times as well. the currency markets, looking at the yen. this is what we have at the moment. just below that 111 level. the aussie dollar as well, reacting to that pmi number. a slight lift up because it was editor than expected, but those gains have now been largely lost. . snapshot of the korean won they we have it.
rishaad: there we go. victoria harbour. 9:29 a.m. in hong kong. we count you down to the start of the trading day. i am rishaad salamat coming to you from bloomberg's asia headquarters. there.a beautiful day i am haidi lun in sydney. we are seeing a sigh of relief when it comes to that china p.m. pmi number, but still does not dispel the narrative that we have reached the peak when it comes to chinese growth for 2017. the data next, forward-looking components of
the pmi number indicating weakness, export orders. future export orders as well. we are about to get underway when it comes to the hong kong and shanghai markets. uptick for hong kong in pre-auction. here is sophie. theie: a slight uptick for hang seng, marginally higher, less than .1% at the open, but the shanghai composite coming back online after a four-day weekend, up .6%. the shenzhen market up 1.3%. h-shares on the back foot ever so slightly. traders have a lot of catching up to do. today, the latest pmi figures better than expected, basically couldg china's economy give regulator some scope when it comes to tackling financial risks. we did see a reaction in the aussie, a slight pop, but now giving up gains. copper futures in the wake of
this pmi number, bouncing, loving that data, but iron ore futures still around a seven month low. we did have the pboc set the fix for the yuan at the strongest level since may 18. today's reaction in focus given that on friday, china said it is considering changes to the fixing formula. on friday, we did have the yuan at the 6.85 level, the offshore rate today extending losses. ,n equity mover in hong kong lenovo shares jumping early in the premarket trade come up over 7%, now up 5%. this is as trading volume surges. since julyp the most 2015. much forank you so that.
let's get first word news with rosalind chin in hong kong. z says threatsrbn to the system are receding. governor graham wheeler released the annual stability report, saying risks have fallen in the past six months, however noted elevated global uncertainty saying new zealand could be vulnerable if risk sentiment drives up lowering costs. >> if you look at house price inflation in the last eight months, it has come off significantly, and we are pleased about that. we don't know if house prices inflation will increase again. we have been watching it very closely, as you would expect. rosalind: the japanese economy is showing signs of life. industrial production rose 4% in april, slightly below expectations, but a big improvement on the previous month. there is evidence korea is slowing, industrial production
missed estimates by a wide margin in april. month on month felt 2% against a forecast of a small rise. president putin has ridiculed claims that russia has been interfering in elections in the west. he said there is no need to fabricate imaginary threats. he says people think them up, scare themselves, and base policy on that. hash korea's new president ordered an investigation into how components of the controversial u.s. missile defense system arrived in the country without his knowledge. president moonves stepped in after learning six launchers have been deployed while previous defense ministry statements referred to only two. moon criticized that and called for a review. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: getting back to that
of story, small signs chinese economy holding outcome of chinese economy holding up, the factory gauge for may better than thinking out there, at least what economists have been calculating. tell us a bit more. backdrop,remember the one of deleveraging in china. putting the foot on the brakes might slow growth somewhat more than anticipated, but i think what we are seeing is a targeted the leveraging campaign, targeting specific sectors, the financial industry and particular as they try to rein in risks there rather than pull the credit out of the wider economy that would slow growth in total. i think this pmi points to -- rishaad: we look at the whole idea of the ppi number, the factory gate number, 53, 54,
hugely deflationary territory, now growing rapidly. how much is a sign of industry shakedown and getting rid of excess capacity? ppi is #8228 showing how has this upsurge and has gone into positive territory. we have seen it fall back, as we have with the pmi numbers. >> there are a lot of things going on with ppi. ,here is a base effect capacity, running down inventories, and it does reflect demand underground as well on the back of what is happening on the stimulus side of things. the ppi story we can argue the cause, but the result is positive for the economy because as long as prices remain positive, that brings down borrowing costs and pushes up factory prices and wages potentially. that is a real positive for china's economy and could be a source of inflation.
yes, the cause of ppi can be put down to different factors, but the net result is a good thing. we know the official pmi tens to skew towards larger state owned enterprises, getting more help on the transmission side of monetary policy as well. midsizexpecting smaller companies, private companies tomorrow to be holding up as well? this is key. getting the private sector and smaller companies spending and taking the burden off the government to spend money is votto to getting china's economy on a stable footing. that had been a missing piece for so long. we have seen countries where capex is picking up, spending more, upping investment levels as confidence it increases, but a long way short of where it should be. even if we do see an ongoing
move in the right direction, it is nowhere near the point where the government can step away completely. that's why the deleveraging campaign, they are not taking credit out of the economy. they are targeting risks in the financial system. positionnment is in no to step away with where the economy is at now. not wanting another tantrum, if you will, in the financial markets. thank you so much as always. fed, governor brainard raising doubts about the pace of rate hikes, saying we can inflation may mean policymakers need to rethink their strategy. kathleen hays is all over the speech. june seems like a done deal. take us through what governor brain art said and what it means for policymakers. >> let's start with the fact is agovernor brainard
governor at the federal reserve. she has been known as a more dovish person on rates, cautious about raising rates, got fully on board with the march hike. today, she spoke to the cornell , the first york, she part of her speech was devoted to looking at inflation and the fact that inflation has softened. we've been talking about that, haven't we? she said if this continues and she conceived the u.s. economy getting stronger and there is a brighter, better growth in the global economy, she has an issue looking at this soft inflation and what it can mean down the road. >> even so, i see some tension is inn signs the economy the neighborhood of full employment and signs that the tentative progress on inflation may be slowing. if that tension between the progress on employment and the lack of progress on inflation persists, it may lead me to
reassess the expected path of policy in the future, although it is premature to make a call today. may lead to reassess the path. obviously she will watch this play out over time. the june meeting is just a couple of weeks away, so probably does not change the way she will vote in a couple of weeks. the latest report on spending and income in the u.s., which includes the fed's key inflation gauge, came out hours before she spoke. us what governor brainard is talking about. jim bullard was talking about it with us 24 hours ago. the headline, the turquoise line, the yellow line is the 2% target, the headline only up above target for once in the past five years. now it is continuing to fall. takeout food and energy, giving you a sense of where the
headline is going, 1.5%, 1.6%, also moving in the wrong direction. talked aboutnard what is a big puzzle for economists, that when unemployment gets low, wages start rising and that boost inflation, and everybody arguing for the fed to move because they will fall behind the curve on inflation, but by do we look at #189 and see what is going on. you can see the unemployment rate has fallen, the yellow line, 4.4%, the lowest in 10 years. the white line is average hourly earnings. yes, and hourly earnings have recovered from some dismal range, but stuck in a plateauing at over 2.5%. the concern issue not getting wage pressure that could lead to inflation. is the curve broken? most people say no.
this type market will shoot wages up. other people are concerned we are in a different economy, but seems to be much weaker. theaad: this great piece in terminal today. i'm asking a simple question, remind us why you are raising rates? there is the chance, and the the music has changed and fed could hold off on a rate hike next month. if theyll be difficult do. let's say the friday's job report is a mess, maybe that is a reason not to. maybe there as some big geopolitical upset, but that could slow down the fed. governor brainard is at echoing jim bullard, but she does not seem to be opposing the june hike. if thistion is, continues, what does it mean for the september hike?
let's jump into the bloomberg and look at the world interest-rate projections come and what you see are on so june hike 90%, two thirds of the way down, the odds of september hike are at 26%. the market is not convinced. the 10 year yield is down to 2.2%, a white diversions between what the market expects and what the fed is advertising so far. rishaad: thank you very much indeed. kathleen hays looking at the feds next possible moves. up next, morgan stanley saying 2017 will be the best year for china export growth and 2012. we will look at the thinking behind that and put the question to them live at the china summit live in beijing. ♪
asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. morgan stanley is holding its third annual china summit in beijing. tom mackenzie is standing by for us. what have you got? we have 300 companies here in beijing as part of the morgan stanley annual summit come around hundred 900 investors working out the opportunities and challenges in the market. i'm joined by the chief asian economist for morgan stanley. ,e just have the pmi data out 51.2, which was in line with the previous month and above estimates, and in line with your view, which is one of a broadly positive chinese economy. >> absolutely. what is happening is that people are underestimating the role of external demand and stabilizing growth in china. china is tightening, you are seeing a pickup in exports helping to stabilize, and that
is what is showing up in the pmi number, that new export orders picked up a bit. tom: exports, you are positive as well, 2017 could be the strongest year for export since 2012, and that ties into the demand picture as well. >>tom: absolutely. this is the first time we are seeing a synchronized recovery in global demand. developed markets in emerging markets are doing well. developed markets are not deleveraging anymore. in emerging market can we had four years of adjustment, first commodity importers, then exporters, so that is helping demand. if you look at the numbers in terms of the recovery and external demand, since october 2016, chinese exports have gone up 11% in volume terms cumulatively. that is a very strong growth right now. rishaad: have any of your assumptions about what we are single and ford for the chinese economy been shaken by the pressureing campaign,
on chinese bond yields an impact on the equities market as well, how much of a concern is that? do you expect the deleveraging campaign to continue at the same place? how does that play out in the bond markets particularly? >> in terms of managing this deleveraging, first, the interbank rate. if it spikes up big time, they will have to put in some and stall the pace of deleveraging. the second thing is external demand. china's model is countercyclical growth management. why the debt has been so big is that since 2011, external demand has been declining and china has been creating domestic demand to leverage, but now if you have recovery, you can pull back on this leverage. if something happens in the u.s. and you get a global downturn and exports weaken again, that will shape the ability to take down this leverage base. moody's going ahead with
their surprise downgrade, and that angers the chinese, saying they are misreading the situation in china. what is your view of that downgrade? >> the big debate about that downgrade is debt to gdp management. we are constructed china will be able to stabilize as gdp is rising. there are 2-3 things different this time. first, external demand is recovering after 6-7 years of deceleration. second, china's property market conditions far more healthier. today, we have housing starts higher than housing sales and inventory is declining versus 2013-2015 when they were tightening and housing inventory levels were high and sales were week, so we have the exact opposite and the property market is far more healthier. the third thing is that china excess capacity, and that is helping the overall pricing power. because of that you have nominal
gdp growth that is better and you don't have the challenge and that growth is strong. the gdp base this calendar year and 2017 will be closer to 10%, and next year will be closer to gdp.se in that will give comfort to investors that china is able to manage the software and in. .2 conditions are that the reform process and the reforms will be put in place. it has beenay glacial at best and some circumstances, taking a step attack. state owned enterprises, for example. are you expecting to see a pickup in reforms after the party congress towards the end of this year? >> i think that is the one area where we think there will be a more moderate pace. the other areas in terms of transition to higher by you
economic activity. china's exports today, more than 50% is higher value. backill have five years of , 12 5%. that transition is happening. the transition from investment driven growth to production driven growth is happening. fromition to services manufacturing is also happening. so all the reforms are happening, but we think it will be relatively slow. what you will see is improvement in efficiency of operations rather than large-scale privatization like you see in other parts of the world. tom: we've been talking previously about the role of the now questions over whether we are going to get those three hikes this year. this in balance of the struggle it is facing with weak inflation , stronger jobs numbers and jobs growth, how much of a factor is the fed in which are seeing in the region? how much of a risk is that, and
have the rate hikes been priced in? >> we are worried about less the rate impact on emerging markets. to see thesee magnitude of rate hike's and tightening the fed is taking up, including balance sheet reduction. in our base case, the private sector in the u.s. will come back and they will absorb this tightening. understand the fact that the fed has to do this qe and massive easing because the private sector was deleveraging. the private sector is out of deleveraging, so the u.s. should take these rate hikes the fed is about to make, but the question you want to watch as the u.s. is in late cycle phase. corporate credit has shown signs of cracking, auto sector, retail space, so we are watching that corporate balance sheet, whether to theuses an end
business cycle, so we are more worried about the business cycle than fed rate hikes pressurizing the markets. tom: thank you very much. the chief asian economist for morgan stanley saying the demand picture is looking positive and short to medium-term positive on china with a few caveats. rishaad: thanks a lot for that. right, coming up, and made for each other moment. ties with germany as donald trump fires off another round. the details on the way. ♪
germany and the u.s., between her and president, seems to be heightening. matt miller has more. met withminister modi angela merkel in berlin as the german chancellor demonstrates her ability to pivot from the u.s. and strengthen alternative global alliances. a sunday, she told voters in very a that reliable transatlantic ties formed in the aftermath of world war ii are "to some extent over." she walked as comments back a bit. is of the utmost importance and not something we do and opposition against a relationship with another country, nor is it directed against the transatlantic relationship, which is of historic importance to us. nonetheless, president trump ratcheted up his dispute with germany over trade and defense, tweeting "we have a massive trade deficit with germany.
plus, they pay far less than they should on nato and military. this will change." prime minister modi is on a trip enter up to lift india's trade balance out of the doldrums. tomorrow, then travels to russia to meet with president putin. india has seen an uptick in foreign direct investment this year after outflows in 2014, 2015, and 2016. angela merkel is scheduled to meet with chinese premier li keqiang on wednesday and the two will speak on thursday before heading to the 19th china-eu summit in brussels. up in theight, coming an uplift when it comes to the session. with notable exceptions, tokyo off by .1%, but gains of
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