tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg June 5, 2017 2:30am-4:01am EDT
guy: monday morning. welcome to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. your first trade of the cash session coming up. i'm guy johnson in london, matt miller in berlin. what are we watching? london getting back to work after saturday's terrorist attack that left seven dead. financial markets are looking through the event, but with three days to go until the general election, will there be an effect in the polling booths? tensions flare in the gulf as a saudi led alliance severs diplomatic relations with qatar
and closes off access to the country over its relationship with iran. oil wa surging. and jamie dimon says u.s. infrastructure is "embarrassing," this as president trump is set to kick off his construction initiative today. we will get the latest from j.p. morgan's ceo. matt: we did see the qatari stock exchange open down more than 5% right now. qatar until we open european markets. 5.3%,tari exchange down 5.5%. take a look at european futures. screen, so you can see futures trading across a number of different markets here on my terminal. you can see a little c next of
the german market and the italian futures. we see closures in sweden, norway, austria, poland, portugal because of pentecost. markets will be closed for trading today because of that christian holiday. i also want to show you the bund trade. trade, anda bund investors are selling off german debt, pushing yield higher. 0.283, soit's only at although the yield is rising, it is rising from a low level. guy: let's talk about what is going on. interesting that germany had a solid day friday, closed monday but solid on friday. i'm going to focus on what's happening with the currency markets. we are seeing a little bit of a move away from what we saw friday, dollar weakness following the payroll data, and an australian rate decision
coming up. that will be a story to watch as well. in terms of the financial markets, we are looking through what happened saturday in the united kingdom. we haven't seen much of a reaction to that. the market is pretty desensitized to these kinds of attacks. what we are seeing is an impact to the gcc, the qatar story, and what we have seen his oil coming down. that is just beginning to fade. what you are seeing is that oil is no longer present after the big move. it is just beginning to back off, a trade rally we saw in crude. let's get an update on what else we need to know with the first word news. here's juliette saly. juliette: guy, thank you. u.k. opposition labor leader jeremy corbyn and prime minister theresa may traded blows in the wake of the deadly terror attack. campaigning ahead of the election was temporarily halted after three men killed seven
people and injured almost 50 others, but within hours, they blew up any notion of detente and swapped barbs. >> while we have made significant progress in recent years, there is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country. so we need to become far more robust in identifying it and sniffing it out across the public sector and across society. that will require some difficult and often embarrassing conversation. >> the mass murderers who brought terror to our street in london and manchester want the election halted. they want our democracy halted. they want their violence to overwhelm our right to vote in a fair and peaceful election, to go about our lives freely. that is why there can be no doubt that next thursday's vote must go ahead. juliette: meanwhile, a benefit
concert has been held. it was held to remember the victims of the suicide bombing at an ariana grande concert. thanks. pop star crowd sai the crowds for being strong and unified. four countries led by saudi arabia have cut diplomatic ties with qatar. the governments of saudi arabia, bahrain, the united arab emirates, and egypt said they will suspend air and sea travel to and from qatar. saudi arabia will shut land crossings with the neighbor . it started over its support of you ran and the muslim -- of iran and the muslim brotherhood. secretary of state rex tillerson says he doesn't see the blockade making much of a difference to security. >> i do not expect that this will have any significant impact, if any impact at all, on
the unified fight against terrorism in the region or globally. juliette: global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy, matt. guy: thank you. let's take you back to what's happening in the gcc. qatar is already open, doha has started trading, and it is sharply to the downside. we have in your 6% move, 5.7% off this morning. we are starting to see an effect, one group already suspending as of tomorrow. qatar is a major hub, one of the major gulf carriers, and it will be interesting to see what impact that has in terms of its destinations and ability to act as a hub. will there be a ripple effect around the gulf? we have seen the effect in the
oil market, it has faded a little bit. brent is still trading around 1%, nymex trading up just over 1%. but the story surrounding the gulf markets is one to watch as they start trading up. we will bring you details on the impact we are seeing. let's get back to our top story, the terror attack in london saturday. nejra cehic is standing by at london bridge. let's start with what we know. how is the police investigation proceeding? policehe investigation is ongoing. 12 arrests have been made, one arrested has been released without charge. they are also searching for properties to the east of london, and we have heard this morning that they are searching a further two properties and have detained a number of people. those who have been detained so far were detained under the terrorism act. the investigation is ongoing but
the police are confident that the three perpetrators that ran into crowds on london bridge, where i am standing now, and went on a stabbing spree killing seven and injuring 48, police are confident they were the only perpetrators in this attack. we don't yet have the identity of those three men, that were shot within minutes of beginning their attack. the area around london bridge is still cordoned off, likely to be cordoned off for a lot of today, but london bridge station is open, trains and undergrounds, r running. there is some sense of a return to normality after this terrible tragedy. matt: nejra, this is the third attack on u.k. soil in three months. how has the government's response he evolved over time? know that the
islamic state has claimed responsibility for this attack, and we did have a statement from the prime minister outside downing street on sunday morning around 10:30 a.m. both in her tone and the content of what she said. she really did ramp up the rhetoric, saying enough is enough, and also laid out four areas going forward where the government is going to make a response. she talked about confronting the ideology of islamic extremism. she talked about working with the government to force internet companies to stop providing what she called "safe spaces" online. she also talked about dealing with safe spaces in the real world, and examining the criminal justice system. we do understand that there will be an emergency cobra meeting happening this morning at 8:30 london time, so in about 50 minutes. as you both know, the rhetoric surrounding the u.k. election
with just three days of campaigning left does seem to be very dominated by this attack that happened on saturday night. guy: thank you very much. nejra cehic, from just south of london bridge. as i drove across waterloo bridge this morning, they have already erected barriers on one side of the bridge, and i suspect you may see that on other bridges. we are already talking about it. let's talk about the market reaction. mark cudmore joins us for more. mark, the financial markets have become desensitized to attacks such as this, but the proximity of the general election does raise an extra issues surrounding this. , thewas to watch one thing foreign exchange market for instance, what should i be paying attention to? >> that's a great question,
actually. as you said, markets have finally become desensitized these horrific events, but it really depends on how it will slide in the election. people are struggling to work out that battle. it really depends on the day today. there are other data points coming out, other things driving the markets. but i think in today, euro-sterling may be the most interesting to watch. dollar has a lot of other dominant factors after the nonfarm payrolls data. maybe the more pure sterling play might be other sterling-swiss or euro sterling. matt: i have a commodities question. we obviously have the situation quickly moving in qatar, saudi arabia, four other nations cutting off ties to qatar. they are moving the oil market, but it's really more of an lng story. which commodities do you want to watch closely? >> it's an interesting story.
qatar is very relevant to lng, but not so relevant to oil. the first instinctive markets was to go, oh, there's tension in the middle east, that might disrupt supply, and oil prices ticked up. impactterm, there is an in the fractious relationship of whichec relationship, means they may find it harder to enforce compliance. it might be a negative for oil ultimately. but there is no serious sign yet lng i know of that qatar's supply will be cut off to the main market. but that is definitely something to watch going forward. guy: interesting to see how doha response. joining us from the mliv team. smart analysis throughout the day, you get this rolling blog. the other thing to mention, there is a tliv surrounding what is going on in the gulf.
you can get specific news related to what's happening with the qatar story. there is one that covers the developers conference taking place, and the aussie rate decision coming up. a bunch of smart things you can see. we will carry on the conversation surrounding what's happening in the gcc. we will take you live to abu dhabi, four aaron countries led by saudi cut diplomatic ties with qatar. they are closing off access. we will bring you market reaction and the latest. remember, this is a big airline hub as well. this is bloomberg. the market opened in europe is 60 minutes away, but remember, plenty of markets closed today. ♪
matt: welcome back. i'm matt miller in berlin. guy johnson is alongside me in london. right now, saudi arabia, are rain, egypt, in the united arab emirates have cut diplomatic ties with guitar, escalating a crisis that started over iran and its support of the muslim brotherhood. the four countries have said they will suspend air and sea travel to and from qatar.
tracy alloway joins us now from abu dhabi. tracy, remind us of how the tensions kicked off, or how they started to begin with, and what was the tipping point that led finally to this dramatic move? question,s a great and as you are waking up in london or new york, you haven't necessarily been following all the ins and outs of middle east regional politics. this seems like a big move, and it is. we haven't seen a diplomatic risk like this in the gcc ever, really. the approximate cost -- this comes amidst rising tensions over the past couple weeks. there have been long simmering disagreements between some gulf states and qatar over qatar's alleged support for groups like hamas, the muslim brotherhood, and of course iran. the most proximate cause for the most recent risk has to be some
comments from qatar's ruler, criticizing mounting anti-iran rhetoric in the region. qatar says those comments that were published were caused by cyber hackers. it seems like some gulf states aren't necessarily buying that excuse. but it's also important to remember that the comments came just a week or so after president donald trump visited the region, and he was really rounding the wagons around his arab allies and against iran. indeed, you could also look at donald trump and the rising anti-iran rhetoric as another potential cause for the -- is. guy: just over 7% down at the moment. how are we expecting it to ripple out across the region as we see other exchanges opening up? tracy: we have also seen abu dhabi stock and dubai stocks moving down, nowhere near the
extent of qatar. the important thing to question now is how long this risk is going to last. if it's a short-term thing, that you will have the knee-jerk negative movement. markets don't like uncertainty, and this is as uncertain as we have seen the gcc's diplomatic relationships for a long time. but if it lasts longer, then things start to get interesting. think about qatar. enormous amount of food from places like saudi arabia. think about what this potentially does to their inflation rate. think about what the emphasis on these diplomatic risks does for the ongoing structural reforms that are supposed to be taking place in the gulf in the face of low oil prices. if we have this is a distraction, that really puts those in question. matt: tracy, thanks very much. tracy alloway, managing editor
from abu dhabi, live on this evolving story. the british prime minister theresa may has signaled that she will seek new powers to root out terror, toughening her rhetoric after the london terror attack's. that is as the country prepares for a general election just three days from now. for more, anna edwards is live in westminster with the guest. anna? anna: thanks very much. knew that this was going to be a big week for u.k. politics, when theresa may called the election. the events of saturday night changed the tone and the topic of conversation around the selective security, bringing it to the fore. but there is a business conversation, with brexit on the horizon. with that in mind, let's bring in our next guest. i am joined by the ceo of the eef, a body which champions u.k. manufacturing and engineering. thank you for talking to us.
the tone of the election has changed quite a bit. we aren't hearing as much about business as we might have expected. a lot about security, though. having said that, there have been attempts, it seems, to reach out to business a little bit more in the last few days. is that something that happening?have seen are you hearing a more positive tone from the may government? and i thinke that, it has improved in the last couple days. i think this conservative government is pro-business. i have witnessed that myself. some of the messaging and the manifesto, it's not as positive as it could have been. we are talking about messaging, and the substance of it. i'm on record saying that some of that messaging, the immigration levy, employee is coming in who we badly need,
maybe there's commentary around the brexit negotiations -- i think that was perhaps some helpful. anna: when you hear more interventionist comments coming from theresa may, do you take them at face value? she is somebody who says she doesn't think the government should step out of the way, that the government should be more meddling in the relationship between business and society. do you take that at face value, or do you think that's just for the voting booth, and what she does is different? >> there's a big difference between meddling and positive constructive intervention. if that positive constructive intervention is going toward industrial strategy and the support of environment, that's that my businesses welcome. we are looking for a number of pillars. let's bring those to life through the next government, if
it is a conservative government, make them happen. anna: i'll ask you about the other party in a moment, but on the conservative party, they have talked about a new, increasing the immigration -- a levy on businesses that want to bring in migrant labor. you suggest there is no rationale for that. surely the rationale is that it encourages businesses to trade rather than import. >> not only do i applaud, but i strongly wish and push many of our business is to train not just young men and women coming into the sector. it does take time to train people, whether it be through apprenticeships, which we strongly support, or through university. i think that the doubling of that charge on immigrant labor, some of which is badly needed for the economy, could have been better fall through. anna: well with the labour party
manifesto be? >> there is some positive elements in terms of the support for innovation, schools, things we would welcome. but if you look at it in the round, this stuff harkens back to the 1970's and 1980's. it's massive state intervention in terms of re-nationalization. once you start the ball rolling, welcome our trade union colleagues, but we must not go back to the 1970's and 1980's, where much of our economy was bound by or influenced by trade unions. i stand on that comment. the labour manifesto takes us to a bygone age. anna: thank you very much. o the ceof -- the ceo of the eef. guy: thank you very much. anna's got a busy week.
she will be in westminster all week, counting us down to the election and providing plenty of coverage on what exactly it will mean. remember, you can access all of this on tv . we will have great coverage on the radio, right here on bloomberg. tune in to our special on thursday night. jon ferro and i will be writing instant analysis of the polls as they are published. all of that is coming up. minutes away from the market openness monday morning. we are expecting a reasonably flat open when it comes to equities. it's pentecost, which means a lot of the markets in europe are closed, including the dax and the swiss market. one stock to continue to watch, one asset to continue to watch, is banco popular. we saw the cocoa moving fairly aggressively in the run-up to what is been -- what has been the latest move in the equities. it has been interesting to watch the fixed income space. watch the oil story as well.
guy: european equities open. pentecost, there are plenty of markets not going to open today, including germany. we're expecting to see a mildly positive start. financial markets are largely looking through the latest terrorist atrocity. .1%, butondon up by the proximity to the general election i think is just cautioning some of that story. we will see how we work through the rest of the week. matt, matt: i'm just watching and to be fair come up much more
involved in the lng market than in oil permit less than 2% i believe of the global oil supply , it'sut geographically very important. i have an oil futures chart here and on the announcement, oil futures jumped immediately and now we are looking at 1% gains in the underlying contracts. markets are opening up, let's see where we are. the pink line is the swiss market as the purple line is the german market. you will seek no movement there. we are expecting a flat show from the london market of it a lot of data over the next hour, pmi's from places like france and spain and germany. euros aggregate later on and data from the u.k. at 9:30 this morning. ,ondon market just opening fading into the friday close as well. we are getting a touch higher than expected on the bloomberg
1%,ulation permit 1/10 of remember these are elevated levels from a historical point of view. let's get the details with manus cranny. .anus: this is the benchmark politics are the dominant thing in the middle east, latin america, or in the united kingdom provision we have the european central bank meeting so we might be able to talk about politics on thursday, but you will be able to talk about ecb. could it be that the language disappears? 600 reflectionk this morning, but an indication. but the oil market, as matt said, on the back of the gulf disruptions, the political nuances of what the qataris are doing in regards to iraq, two weeks on from one trump dined in the gulf region. you have oil at 48 tenths. when it comes to political risk and markets, you have record
highs industries, being repressed everywhere around your markets. however this is 5100 volatility, relative to the european. stocks ftse versus euro 50. it's ratcheted by 60% over the last week, the highest versus the european peers in nearly two years. that gives you some kind of sense of the angst that we perhaps belie the headline index that you are looking at here thist it caught my eye morning what jeffrey said, it's a conservative collection to use -- to lose and they are doing their best to do so. making a point that there was one phrase that will resonate, enough is enough. i reflected on the polls that showed in terms of the trust factor, qataris have that
relative to the labor peers over the last couple weeks. of 1%, i am off to digital radio with airline had cap. >> thanks manus. dab digital is really focused on capital. there is an interesting thing happening in the market, different sitting between oil companies. and their exposure to have truck. the mov and put index point in, you get a screen that looks like this. oil has rallied. what you have is shell rising. they are up by 67 tenths. flip to the downside and look at which a stock is in index point terms leading the losers. it took tell. i was just digging around on total hasite and signed a deal. qatari gas field.
that is basically a 30% concession covering offshore for the field of 25 years getting to july 14 2017. that's just about to start. the market is differentiating between different oil stocks and their exposure to the barriers and gcc countries. thecan see that clearly in way the equity market is responding to what is happening with the qataris story. lifting oil majors. but total has a specific measure and showing weakness. that's an interesting breakdown of how the story is developing. one of our top stories, what is happening in qatar, the terrorist attack that took place in london saturday at london bridge at borough market. london bridge and have an ongoing always investigation. the story is moving quickly. because of the speed.
>> we do have that ongoing investigation. what we have heard is that this morning police made further raids into more properties in addition to the four that have been searched and detained more people permit 12 arrests so far. one of those people have been released without charge. the investigation is ongoing. security has already in ramped up at london bridge, where i am. the area behind the includes borough market. we understand from metropolitan police that it will remain cordoned off today. the trains and underground at london bridge are running pretty much as normal, a lot of commuters walking past me as i speak. we also heard police are getting confident that the three hackers minutes ofot within one they rammed into pedestrians in london bridge and going on a stabbing spree, injuring 48.
we understand that they are increasingly confident that those three men were the only perpetrators. the identities of these men, but they have not released them yet. that information we are waiting for. we also heard that there will be in an emergency code releasing in a half hour. 8:30 u.k. time. we also know that islamic state has claimed responsibility for these attacks. much thank you very indeed. we look you updated on this developing story. let's talk about the financial markets -- absorbing this story and how it fits into the broader narrative. we are joined on set. the financial markets increasingly sensitized. does the proximity to the general election make the nervous?ore
> i doubt it to be honest. if anything, we are so bearish, the lingering political uncertainty. seen in the polls more tragic events over the weekend. if anything, the terrorist threats or security is destructive to a point that ahead of the election, away from the key points ahead of that, which were the brexit, the labor or the need of conservatives of having or indeed the policies boosting domestic demand if you want to call it fiscal stimulus. on the whole, i think before long, maybe by tomorrow, market tension will refocus back to those two main issues. orse terrorist threats issues of security may indeed have an impact, but not
necessarily a sustained impact. we make -- we remain bearish on the pound. guy: that answers my question. what's the outlook for the pound longer-term, beyond these elections? >> we are looking at potential outcomes for the election and how they will impact the pound on the longer-term permit our conclusion is that whatever comes from the election, the outlook need not improve significantly. that is our outlook, still remains relatively errors on the currency, in particular if you start with a decisive win for the conservatives wanting to extend their majority. we think even with that, may will be facing -- prime minister may, rather, will be facing challenges and the fact that any deal that won't meet her criteria could ultimately result in more deals as stated by the
prime minister on the campaign trail. brexit could be the result. the other extreme, for some clients that has been some points where soft exit or a deal of any cost with the other of that and we are arguing potentially that for the pound. the problem is that it will come with so much added political uncertainty and other elections is, i wouldn't see a very positive for the pound. fairly describe it as negative. even if you consider potential coalition between labor somewhere, if you move away from the big -- brexit issue and focus on domestic policy, labor has moved firmly to the left where the others stay in the middle.
to resultament likely in more political uncertainty, hence more active for the pound. is, if theylay that are confirmed and the pound and may is able to extend majority in parliament, they might get a reprieve short-term, but we will be using that to establish longer-term short in the currency. >> let's break down more. we are focused on what is happening in the u.s.. it's a big week. it's a fairly big week with the ecb coming up. something to pay attention to. which pairs do i focus on? in some ways i want to strip out the u.s. story. comey testifying, a lot going on in the united states, do i focus on this pair here, which isn't euros sterling? or maybe sterling versus the swiss franc. how do i strip out the maximum
amount of noise from what happens with sterling's story. ? >> going into thursday and all the political events risk we have on that date, i think the sterling short might reflect our expectations at the moment whereby we expect polls to be confirmed in may to extend the majority in the parliament. " uncertainty ahead of that prevents you from putting the train on the election. sorry. >> have a glass of water. >> don't make him laugh now. >> this is the problem. >> no, the point being -- >> why don't i jump in here, balancing? -- valentin? stick with us when we come back we will talk about qatar cut off, saudi arabia leads for arab countries
welcome back to bloomberg markets, the european open. i'm matt miller alongside guy johnson. we will cross to dubai where yousef gamal el-din has the latest on the gulf diplomatic crisis. of the magnitude of these developments in the region. how big a deal is this? yousef: one work, unprecedented. this is a crisis like no other in the history of the corporation counsel. it's been working tirelessly to create something like the european union. that means you have a lot of integration, incredible integration across sectors, across businesses. saudi arabia making it clear that qatar is not pulling the same line when it comes to
isolating iran, which triggered this wider lock a. but there is also a human toll. i want to highlight that. just to give you a sense on how drastic these measures are, not just cutting length in terms of land sea and air. citizens disallowing that are living here. they have to leave united air 14 days and residents are not allowed to travel to qatar anymore. could you imagine to what this does to some of the families here? ultimately the wider growth story, as well. it puts the u.s. in a predicament. think back a few weeks, donald trump was at the counterterrorism center, but you also have central command in qatar. how will the u.s. play with this? rex tillerson is encouraging collaboration, but they will have to choose a site eventually and it brings up a whole new element to the wider gcc
conversation. pray for hours ago it wasn't on the table. -- 24 hours ago it wasn't even on the table. talk about market reactions. .ot so much elsewhere i want to ask you a quick question muscle answer both of these. if i am getting on a qatar airways jet today and i am flying to the old, am i going to be affected today or tomorrow? how does this work from a mechanical point of view? this is a major hub airport that is located there. what happens next? yousef: what we are seeing is a lot of these companies are pulling now, you have hot airways and emirates that are putting out statements that they will be complying with the latest guidance. in the case of the airways, it's
going to happen immediately. those lengths will go away. -- are making and him poison and important part here. at howally if you look many times qatar flies to divide, 14 times a day to dubai and 60 times two of dobby. -- abu dhabi. sense ofelloff in the a percent in qatar exchange stocks. contrasted with the saudi stocks, just for perspective, of these indices haven't performed well, some of the worst-performing stocks in the world. but the help qatari stocks with your line in white really diverging from its saudi peers. we did see initial pressures build up in the lead up to this. it includes qatari twelve-month real forwards. to level coming back
two that we haven't seen since january 2016. same applies to saudi arabia. also what is happening on the credit default space and ultimately, the question becomes, what does this mean in terms of the wider conversation, whiter investments? best we are going to keep throughout the day. guy: thank you for joining us out of dubai. just to mention as well, the markets differentiating between oil companies, it has exposure into one of the biggest fields in qatar. other oil stocks are rising. there is a number of caveats that i want to mention here. this is the excess sp you can see what's happening, down by 14%. i want to highlight that in terms of the price, you can see this is penny stock and in terms
of which a small move in the absolute generates a big move in the percentages. i am going to float something else onto the screen as well, which is the bank of popular. we start to see the cocoa coming under quite a bit of asher. it looked like it was recovering, but the credit story is an easier way of analyzing. and its relationship with the ecb. it's an interesting want to watch because this highlight some of the difficulty that the ecb has as a regulator and some of the difficulties it has as a provider of policy when it comes to monetary policy. fixed, it's not completely fixed, here in europe. this highlights one of the weaknesses that remains ongoing surrounding the eurozone and its recovery.
valentin, the ecb talks about the job is done with inflation, but it knows it's not done with fixing the financial system in the eurozone, getting monetary policy and transmission mechanism to work across the continent. it's a has a massive job to do. how does that get reflected in the statement he delivers thursday? >> on the whole, the ecb remains committed to providing credit stimulus or indeed keeping liquidity conditions in the eurozone supported. down the for banks road. from that point of view, we expect and the bigger picture that the ecb will continue to move gradually to the exit when it comes to qe buying government bonds and we expect an announcement to come as soon as september, but without
compensation the typing commissions. the ecb will direct efforts and provide for credit stimulus. job is not done, more measures in terms of longer-term loans or for the support for the banks could be warranted. wednesday -- sorry, thursday, mario draghi will have to find a balance to deliver and improving message, improving outlook on the economy for changing policy outlook, but cloaked it in a dovish message at the same time. he is keenly aware of the fact that any outright hawkishness would trigger unwarranted tightening in financial situations in the eurozone. it could wait on the growth outlook before long. guy: at a time when core inflation numbers look like they
are ever going to get to 2%. to get ant, i want bloomberg flash, that's only go to juliette saly. >> met, thank you. they plan to raise 1.6 billion euros in an initial public offering. the bank plans to sell 20% of the business and will remain the controlling shareholder. boost theires will capital and give more flexible the in doing deals. jpmorgan ceo says china has made huge progress on market reforms and he would like to increase his firms businesses in the nation. speaking exclusively to bloomberg, jamie dimon said the bank is hoping to get a bond license in the country and would continue -- consider another joint venture in the economy. >> they have made huge progress in financial reforms, market reforms. times going to have tough
and we understand that, that's true for every single country that has gone from an emerging country to a developing country. bloomberg's is this flat smash. matt: thank you for very much for that. donald trump is set to kick off and infrastructure drive on the campaign trail. he channeled $1 trillion into the nation's roads and bridges and hopefully the airports as well. in the markets, we saw a dollar take a dive after nonfarm werolls come under $38,000, were looking for 182 and the whisper was 200, so a pretty big miss. u.s. stocks already hit an all-time high on friday. before they cross, after they cross, whatever index you look at in the u.s., seemingly regardless of what that the trump trade really carries through. still with us, valentin from ethics research. before i ask you about the trump
trade, i went to get into the inflation question. this is core pce for the u.s. that the fed looks at closely. we are at 1.5%. we have trouble getting to the 2% level and just cut this can happen if you want to look at what the ecb should focus on. nowhere is inflation getting to sustainable levels that the banks want to see it. >> indeed. the lack of inflation is starting to trouble the central banks. we believe the key driver of that at the moment is base fx from the commodity prices, oil was a bit higher this time around than last year and the fact that it's struggling at the moment is certainly causing headache for both the fed and the ecb. fact is, at least the fed could look back at recent history of more elevated inflation, whereas
in the ecb, the recent drop in inflation is a reversal of kind of a pickup in inflation, which was welcomed by the governing council. this also highlight the big difference between the feds, which is still expected to highlight the craze in june and later in the year and ecb is certainly trying to work out the optimal timing of the stimulus take that isdeed expected by the markets later in the year. youxpect that the weaker must inflation may indeed cause the fed to delay its decision to hike rates the on the june. in the case of the ecb, i think that should likely strengthen the dovish rhetoric potential. guy: thank you for coming to see us. i just want to highlight something, and error on my part.
>> london gets back to work after saturday's terror attack that left seven day. i markets are looking to the events but with three days to go until the election come up there be an effect in the polling booth? tensions flare in the gulf as well. a saudi led alliance severs the nomadic relations with qatar and closes off axis to the country after its relationship with iran, sending oil higher. the qatari markets plummet. jamie dimon says u.s. infrastructure is quote, embarrassing. this is president trump trying to kick off his infrastructure today. get the latest from the jpmorgan
ceo. i am matt miller in berlin alongside guy johnson at bloomberg's european headquarters in london. guy? the stories are developing pretty fast. and rates saying in the last few minutes that is suspending flights. a little room for maneuver, but not much. that follows what happened earlier on the announcement that at sea had and what it will be doing. dubai will also be suspending flights tomorrow. we are starting to see the ripple effect of the story coming through. let's show you where else we are seeing an effect coming through. you can see this in the drop down here, qatar you can see the market flashing. 7.2%, a substantial move in terms of what we are seeing here and what we are getting is a move that we haven't seen for quite some time. the qatari stocks are down the
most since december 2009. markets beingeing affected, but by no means the same magnitude that the uae market is down 1.76. the reason why the saudi arabian reality is highlighted up here, remember it does have a paid, even if it breaks either side of that and, you get a substantial move that the foreign exchange market. that's the qatari market done by 7.21%. matt? jamie says america is falling behind its competitors when it comes to construction. they also discussed trade and outlook for the u.s. economy. >> i favored tcp and hope it might come back in some fashion, but i am comforted by the fact that the loss of steve mnuchin is negotiating as we speak. additional trade routes with
china. i hear they want to do something with nafta, i would be ok with that. we have wonderful peaceful neighbors in mexico. to the extent that these are unfair, there are things unfair with trump. we will deal with them. unfair these things are and i am for fair trade and sometimes it isn't fair. sidenot fair on the other two, but i haven't thought of that very much. that the u.s. take part in or the agreement that the china is pushing for? >> i would come up i haven't looked at it in a long time and their profit structure isn't properly govern. helping nations develop and region developed is a good thing. if they did well, i would participate. it's in america's interest and china's interest that we both do well. it's not want against the other. it's not a zero-sum game.
>> had you see the u.s. economy of theow and also, some trading volumes, trading revenues taking a dip, i know that's the market of those two the economy, but maybe talk about the economy first. >> i do trade first. trade is like a weapon, it goes up and down predicted, and it's a waste of time. i don't spend much time doing that. we serve clients around the execution,is, discipline. over 20 years, it will go up against the financial of the world will go up. i couldn't possibly tell you, there are economies chugging along just under 2% every two years. it's a long and weak recovery, half of the average recovery. make wise policy decisions , which will take well, corporate tax infrastructure, reform, and other things, we can grow the economy more.
i feel strong about it. >> china is pushing infrastructure, what needs to be done in the united states? >> we haven't built a major airport in 20 years. i am told it takes 10 years to build one bridge and get a permit. we haven't built a bridge in new york city, the first one in 50 years. i just came from hong kong. it's embarrassing. america should get back to building and constructing and permitting and rules and requirements, we have to get back to ever can do attitude about building infrastructure. it's our country and we are getting behind and we shouldn't. a damages growth. jamie dimon, jpmorgan's ceo. he was speaking to bluebirds stephen engle, who joined us now. how optimistic is he about getting 100% control of the jv that he has in china?
stephen: that's right. they backed out and sold out of their joint venture security partnership with first capital here in the late part of 2016. it was underperforming. most of the wall street banks, and european banks, whether it's goldman sachs or citibank, they required to have a presence on the 51% joint venture. they don't have major sway in the operation of the company, that's one of the reasons why jamie dimon said they got out of that. they just didn't have enough say. really muddy corporate governance. i pushed him extensively on what he is next looking for in the joint venture partner for securities firm. he said his long-term agreement is to have 100% control, but that is not possible right now. the government in china does not allow that.
he's confident that it will be allowed in the longer term as long as he goes back into a joint venture arrangement. in thisgan has some say way of the company and the management of control. but right now, they are not allowed to take more than 49%. he's confident they will come back in, but not at this point right now. that will change since china is leading the fight on free trade, they will put their money with her mouth is. on climate change, did he give any indication whether he liked elon musk or bob iger, will put his money where his mouth is? with the quick trumps advisory council like they have? from the withdrawal of the paris court? >> the short answer is no. he says he is an american patriot and he likens donald trump as a pilot when you get on
an airplane, you want to put your full trust in that pilot. he says, you know, there will be disagreements, he did sign the letter saying he disagrees with s position onmp' climate change, but he did not want to make a big deal out of this and he will continue to support the president on the business advisory council even though he shared the same sentiment that not just elon musk and by the tigers said, that many other top is as leaders, whether dow chemical or tim cook or a number of other people, all said they disagreed strongly with president trump. nevertheless, trump went ahead and of course as we all know, got out of that peers treaty. stephen, great stuff, great interview. stephen engle joining us on the interviews he did with jamie dimon. if you are a bloomberg customer,
you can watch this show using tv . you can watch it using a whole bunch of things, but this at a twist which i think is fantastic. let's take this back, you can take the video back, watch pretty much whatever you want. let's take you back to tracy talking about what is happening in qatar. the real sort of aspect of this is what happens over here. that is this sidebar here that provides you with breaking news, data checks, breakdowns of what is happening in terms of optionality that you can use, you spin it back a little bit as well. charts functions that you want to pop out, you can. it gives you the ability to make this a really interactive process. there is the chart we use earlier on. you can pop that out. the other thing you can do, and this is useful in terms of the qatar story, you can send the guests a question, joined the
matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets, i met martin in -- matt miller in religion. -- in berlin. and.k. opposition leader theresa may traded blows in light of the london terror attack. within hours, britain's to leading parties tore up any notion of entente and swapped spars. >> we have made significant progress in recent years, there is, to be frank, far too much tolerance of extremism in our country. we need to become far more robust in identifying it and stamping it out across the public sector and across society. that will require some difficult and often embarrassing conversation. whohe mass murderers
brought terror to everett street in london and manchester want our election halted. they want our democracy halted. they want their violence to overwhelm our right to vote in a fair and peaceful election to go about our lives freely. that is why there can be no doubt that the next vote must go ahead. meanwhile, the one look manchester benefit concert raise more than 10 million pounds for those affected by the terror attack at an ariana grande concert two weeks ago. at yesterday's event, the u.s. pop tart -- popstar paid tribute with performances justin bieber, katy perry, and liam gallagher. ariana grande said i wanted to thank you for being strong. for arab countries, led by saudi arabia, cut to the medic ties with qatar.
the government said saudi arabia and the united arab emirates denied see and air travel to qatar. the crisiscalates that started over its relationship with iran and its support of the muslim brotherhood. however, speaking in sydney this morning, u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson said he doesn't see the block eight making much of a difference to security issues around the world. >> i do not expect that this will have any significant impact , if any impact at all, on the unified fight against terrorism in the region or globally. >> global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy? before we get back into
what's happening in london, i want to draw your attention to the eco-screen. it's a big paper pmi's around europe. we just had the italian data dropping, it's a little lighter than anticipated. or 55.3.r at 55.1, down from 56.3 previously. numbers are, these still posting in the mid to upper 50's, which is a solid result. france is up next and then make it germany and then at 9:30 london time, we get u.k. data out as well. it will be interesting to see the pmi number. and new carces pmi registrations, as well. that's at 9:00, actually. terror attack on london saturday, london bridge, near ricky pitch is at london bridge. when he come back, we need to talk about this. the police investigation is
ongoing and it seems to be moving swiftly. what do we know? this morning already we have heard that police have raided to further robberies and attained a number of additional people. this in addition to the 12 arrests already made. one was released without charge and police had previous to the two property this morning also raided and searched for other properties to the east of london, mainly in parking. andinvestigation is ongoing police do know the identity of the three attackers who ran into pedestrians in a van on london bridge before going on a stabbing spree. they were shot dead by police within minutes of beginning their attack. please know their identity, but have not yet released. we are waiting for that information. we know that islamic state have claimed responsibility for this
attack, but there are further details to be released. emergency cobra meeting of government departments is taking place so we await details from that and anymore from prime minister theresa may this morning. the police chief in interviews saying, the risk of terror is more homegrown than from abroad. she also said more armed police are not the answer. this is interesting following theresa may's comments where she ramped up the rhetoric and said the torrents of extremism in the uk's needs to start. she also said enough is enough and outlined four different ways to combat this threat going forward. guy? matt: all pigot up from here in berlin. thanks. -- i will pick it up from here in berlin. experiment the general election
three days away, it's a crucial week for the price of sterling. let's go back to westminster. anna edwards is there. anna: let's pick up on the investigation near a was talking about. security is very much at the heart of the political debate as we had to the general election. i am joined with charles lichfield, the europe analyst. we understand the covert meeting is taking place, this is ministers and security experts. what do you make of what we have heard from theresa may so far in terms of how security changes in the u.k.? she that enough is enough and we tolerate extremism too much. what does that mean for the daily lives we live here? >> is a bold speech and she said it's a new departure because of what happened before hasn't worked. i think we can't disassociate it from the context we are in
currently. she's fighting an election campaign, which isn't going as well as she expected. she's trying to show that she is much tougher than the leader of her opposition. it may help her, but she is taking a risk because who has been in charge of security the past six years and then as prime minister? it's been theresa may. some may ask what she has been doing so far. it hasn't come with much detail. i was listening to the communications secretary this morning who said we would need to find new ways of looking into the safe spaces terrorists have on the internet to communicate, looking into intricate messages, but you didn't have details on how it would be technically awful. up as a about internet companies and what they are doing, are we talking about the end of and to end encryption and messaging? that with this boils down to and if so, corporation transatlantic the with the united states will
be key as many companies are american. there have been tensions there recently. it has beenat showing. i have my doubts about whether this is technically possible. united states, you may hear local leaders criticizing the availability of intricate technology, but many security specialist say this is not the way to go. i am doubtful that this will happen in the u.k.. i think we will retain axis to intricate messaging services. anna: is a security is a big part of this, we also heard that from germany corporate yesterday. how will this play out at the ballot box? because the polls narrowed in the recent weeks, but when you look at those questions around defense around who will protect you from threats, the conservative party has a decent lead in that type of polling. >> i agree with you. it should be helpful for theresa may and people like myself would usually expect. this has been an extra-base
surprising election. it's ready to consider other ways of dealing with it, dealing with these problems. it's interesting that the elect part is willing to us and to germany corbyn's arguments on foreign policy. why not look at this at a realistic fashion, since we are talking about terrorism in the middle east? why not talk about a complete change of policy? i still think it's more likely that theresa may wins the majority, but simply not the overwhelming majority she expected at the beginning of this campaign, probably because german corbyn, a very unlikely leader in the opposition, is doing that are than expected. anna: is there a chance of voter fatigue in regards to the turnout on thursday? this is the third time the country has gone to the polls, three referendums in two years. that's a lot. is there a low turnout expected? >> i think there is absolutely the case of social fatigue. , but whoow turnout
called this election? i think people blame theresa may for playing politics with the political calendar and they don't like it. i expect a full majority, but not necessarily an overwhelming one. we could have a surprise. anna: the she increased her majority with us? >> not very much, no. anna; thank you very much. but the of coverage from westminster as we go through the weeks and build up to the vote on thursday. guy and matt. guy: thank you very much indeed. saudi arabia and three other arab emirates countries cut off ties with qatar. to punishs designed one of the regions financial superpowers with its ties to iran. result, several carriers will suspend flights to and from qatar. joining us now is bloomberg news middle east aviation transport
reporter, in a camel. do not, give us a sense of the magnitude of what is going on suspended fight and what is the net result of all of this. >> sure thing. we have already seen major airlines and carriers suspend flights from tomorrow and the announcement. emirates airlines and low-cost carrier flights dubai are going to suspend flights starting tomorrow. and this is not surprising because they are following state owned airline's following directives from the government to sever those ties. what impact could this have on carriers and how much does it really matter? it's state owned the state has made the decisions, and the state controls these airlines. so are they going to be
shareholders in some of these airlines who are hurt by this move? are they going to have customers angry because of these moves? what can be the result to the businesses? >> with think for qatar airways, which is obvious the state owned, we think the impact is likely going to be minimal. these are for small countries here in the region and qatar airways has a network of 150 destinations. it mostly relies on long-haul routes and long-haul traffic really. that's where its business is. not so much in getting a lot of traffic from the middle east regions. we think the impact their will be minimal. what is the real sticking issue here is whether it saudi arabia is going to cut off its airspace , because that would be problematic for the airline. the costsking about
of fuel, we are talking about longer flight time, that could be very costly. dinner, thanks very much. dana camel there. certainly a massive story for deena on this monday. i want to break the german pmi numbers. a slightces number is beat here at 55.4 compared to 55.2. that was a survey expectation. the composite number is 57.4, also a slight beat other than 55.3 estimate in our survey. german pmi beating after we had a little bit of a bead on the composite number four spain, a little bit of a bead on the composite number four spain, slight miss on the composite number four italy and for france. mess, it still
>> theresa may is ramping up in the wake of the terrorist attack. with three days to go, how does the atrocity play into the u.k. election race? toted emirates cuts off ties qatar over its relationship to iran. stock markets plummet. as president trump continues to watch his biggest constructive initiative, jamie dimon tells us that u.s. infrastructure is embarrassing.