tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg June 27, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: here are the top stories we're covering from around the world and bloomberg. major technology stories today -- the eu slapping google with a record $2.7 million fine allegedly boosting its own search results. companies from merck tech and advertising giant hit with a cyber attack. big news from central banks today. ando draghi is in portugal is the boe's connie going to toughen requirements for lenders? that is due before janet yellen speaks to the. day. oil prices hovering around the lowest levels in two months.
we will speak with alex kruger, the head of the private equity firm first reserve. let's have a look at where european equities are trading when now 30 minutes until the end of the trading session. stocks falling for the fourth day and tension has been on central bankers. in the meantime, the imf cutting its assessment of the u.s. economy. ambitions ofump's 3% growth are possibly pie-in-the-sky come up my words not the imf words. you can see the currencies rising against the dollar and bonds and commodities and cds'. let's get the bloomberg barometer. well-being is positive. below zero. shows th shows the opposite. we did have some data today in the u.k..
consumers feeling just as gloomy as they were after the brexit vote a year ago. we had an index of consumer confidence dropping to 106.9 in june, a level only slightly higher than that post referendum low. this is from the center of economic and business research. a fascinating piece of data. this gauge does look at gauges such as inflation, other issues such as economic uncertainty. it's a very important gauge of well-being on the economic front here in the u.k. as the brexit process goes through. mark carney today after the release of the bank of england financial policy committee semiannual review. what the boe is planning to do is that it wants to increase capital requirements for lenders here by $11.4 billion to tackle risks posed by the recent rapid growth in consumer credit.
this is the chart that highlights the move upwards and consumer credit we have seen the last year. 10 points 3%, the highest level since 2005. boe wants to rein in investment to keep up with the industry's accelerating switch to electronics. it's a big day for the boe today. consumer lendin coming up this very fast level. a year ago, we had boe pumping liquidity into the system. it is trying to push back on that as consumer credit increases. a big decline in today down by 12%. the biggest decline since its ipo in october 2015. the auto-parts maker cutting its profitability goal for this year, citing price pressures and rising investments to keep up the industry's accelerating switch to electronic. a big decline today down by 12%.
90 minutes into the trading day, julie, how's it looking over their? re? julie: things are more mixed in the u.s. with the s&p in the dow moving higher. some of the energy stocks in the dow are moving up at the moment as well financials. that is helping mitigate some of the earlier declines. the gainers and decliners and the s&p were running back in ck andome up -- net an neck. we are seeing this happen in europe as well, a selloff in sovereign markets is sending yields higher. this is the biggest move that we have seen since march 1. it has been pretty unusual to see this kind of climb. it looks like it potentially has to do with comments by mario draghi. it sounds like even if inflation remains muted, that's not necessarily going to stop draghi and the ecb from winding down
stimulus. perhaps it is raising some hopes that the fed will use the same playbook. at the same time we have volatility in the treasury market that remains muted. we have a look at the move index that shows volatility in the bond market. it is at the lowest level since 2013 as of yesterday's close we should note. we might see a little bit of a blip today with the selloff we are seeing in bonds. definitely volatility is muted. the games that we are seeing in yields today is helping support the banks. that is helping mitigate some of the declines. when you look at the big banks theme u.s., jpmorgan, all are seeing gains. a quick check on sprint could comcast- charter and crown castlet, but
and american tower are higher. analysts are saying that if the speculation is because of the talks that the sprint acquisition of t-mobile is less likely, the consolidation of those two carriers might have meant less demand for tower operator services. it looks like a little relief rally pop. today' here in today's session. google's's go back to legal battle after it was hit with this record $2.7 billion fine from the eu . the competition commissioner telling bloomberg that the google search results are unfair to rival price comparison services. >> we have said that there is this principle that google has to adhere to being a dominant company. that is equal treatment in the neighboring markets of shopping comparison services to treat other companies as they treat themselves. mark: joining us now from bloomberg's caroline
hyde. less important is the size of the fine. more important is what google has to do next. >> the eu has given an order to treat others equally. they do not really say how that is supposed to be done. they've given 90 days for google to come up with solutions. not, they will have a fine of 5% of its daily revenue. that's quite frightening because there's an open question of how bad this could get if they do not find a solution that could go on. there are two other issues. this could be the beginning of what we see. mark: what sort of changes that does the european commission want to see? caroline: they label that when item, upny kind of pops the pictures of google advertising and it takes until
the fourth page for the rival comparison companies to start popping up in the search. you asking what does she want to see? she wants to see that not be the case. she wants to sue the competitors more readily showing up and therefore some of the numbers that are quite shocking to turn about. it was thought that google was starting to see a 45 fold uptick in its own shopping base and its own every of growth on the back of these changes in principle. meanwhile, they saw a drop in traffic for rival news websites. 85% in the u.k. they measured. 92% in germany and 80% in france. the data needs to turn around i think. vonnie: what happens if google does not comply? aoife: it will have to pay more fines. the process is a bit open. we saw that with microsoft where there was fine after fine and it was a process that really dog to
the company for nearly 15 years. for google, this has been seven years. being under investigation is not fun and you have to look over your shoulder. it's not just the money but the stress involved. the fact that you have to change or service and change what you are showing to your consumer. reputation only it is not great. there's a lot of interest in this case and a lot of people have strong feelings about google. this is something that does not end with one fine and goes on and on. vonnie: his is the only investigation that google faces or are there more outstanding? caroline: more outstanding. there are not one but two more ongoing. one is in to android, the operating system that google offers rival manufacturers. there's an investigation as to whether they have forced them to have google search engine on mobile or have their maps already loaded. , that is the adsense advertising offering that google has. what's interesting is that we
could see yet more lawsuits coming thick and fast here. we have had rival companies for years looking at google, wanting to file claims. in the u.k., you have a particular one. found them won a ruling back into a u.k. arrival that enabled it to submit documents to aid the eu and its investigation into google. now we may start to see more civil actions to damage is coming through. this is something that eu mentioned in their overall statement today, saying that we try to make it easier. they have the new eu antitrust damages director. they could be easier for these sorts of companies, these rivals who have been hurt, to prove they have been hurt to get money and recompense. mark: the google news has been supplanted to that cyber attack. caroline: what a day to be covering tech. it is both similar to on
wannacry. each time, it is basically ran somewhere. infected and gets your demented to pay $300 in crypto currency. the same thing is happening with this particular virus. it seems to come from russia and the ukraine and is affecting companies. it is worrying that it is utilities like electric companies and the like. we are worried about the infrastructure and that seems to be what happened with one of cry in london. 80 companies less far we have counted have been hit hard. the have been coming out thick and fast saying the have been affected, shutting down the systems. we now need to see if the people behind this get any more money. successful. a bit vonnie: the companies tend to pay the ransom in crypto currency?
does that get their operation back up and running? caroline: i think this is a key question. we found that not many people did pay it largely because it is affecting old computers. therefore people are using of that are perhaps not technologically savvy as others. they don't even know how to get a hold of $300 worth of bitcoin or crypto currency. it was actually not very successful. usersecurity companies tell when there are significant ransom ware attacks aimed at one company, you will see them pay it because they need to get services back up and running as quickly as possible. the multilayered, multi-pronged attack have not actually been that successful. we will see whether the likes of them are responding. some companies are closing off their networks and it's affecting the likes of energy companies, particularly in the ukraine. microsoftfake migh
digital signature appended according to cup her skin labs. -- tess persky labs. mark: thank you very much. our very own caroline hyde here in london. vonnie: let's check in on now on the first word news. courtney donohoe is here with more. premey: british mr. theresa may kept her grip on funding for northern ireland. the government will funnel money to ireland open the next fee years and that secures the support of the democratic unionist party. the exclusive interview, the uk's chancellor spoke about the money. >> it's a relatively small amount of money. inalways would have expected the process of reestablishing the power-sharing executive in northern ireland that there would be some additional money anyway. we will find that from within our budget. u.k.,ey: staying with the
more fallout from the deadly high-rise apartment building fire this month. the british government has called for a major investigation into cladding and installation used in buildings all across the country. 95 buildings that use cladding similar to that tower fell short and safety tests. the imf has cut its outlook for the in a can economy and says the u.s. probably won't meet president trump target of 3% annual growth. the imf says the u.s. economy will probably grow at 2.1%, down 2/10 of a percent for maples update. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm courtney donohoe. this is liver. bloomberg. mark: loads of central-bank news to digest today. we hear from mario draghi, mark carney, and the fed chair janet yellen speaks here today right here in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am vonnie quinn. mark: live from london, i mark barton counting you down to the european close. let's turn to monetary policy. loads of news today to digest draghi, mark carney, and federal reserve chairman janet yellen. mario draghi's comments about inflation sending the euro higher today. >> we can be confident that our policy is working and its full effect on inflation will gradually materialized. for that come our policy needs to be persistent and we need to be prudent and how we adjust its parameters to improving economic
conditions. isk: joining us now bloomberg u.k. economy reporter jill ward and michael mckee. jill, let's start with you. announcede by stealth tightening of conditions today, policy today? there has been a big split on the monetary policy committee recently and connie is focused on the mpc and fec, which looks at financial stability and took the decisions today. by raising the capital buffer, that in essence tightened conditions of it. it kind of gives carney a bit more leeway in terms of holding off on any changes in monetary policy come august. mark: so by default, michael, one could say that the boe today
titans conditions because of the countercyclical buffer. can we take away the same from mario draghi speech? look at the reaction in bonds. look at the reaction in the euro. are we close or less accommodative of policy from the ecb? michael: is definitely the reading today. look at the reaction from the bond market worldwide and yields went higher as i/o draghi suggested that deflation is a thing of the past and inflation is coming now. you have to drill down a little bit. he also went on to talk about being slow and removing accommodations and being prudent. toy do not want the markets overreact and think the ecb will move to quickly. he does seem to suggest that the time is coming sooner rather than later that the ecb will begin to dial back on the balance sheet. vonnie: we get inflation data friday. strategist are now projecting that is going to be higher so it's interesting.
what will we hear from janet yellen today? michael: i would guess that is going to be a similar message from her. they are ahead of the ecb because they have announced plans for dialing back the balance sheet and have raised rates three times since december. she is going to reiterate that the fed is on a steady but slow -- and use mario's words prudent course of raising rates and conditioning the market to the fed's timetable. she will make the same points that draghi made about inflation. you can look past it because most of the factors are temporary. some of it has to do with currency translations. some of it has to do with oil prices. some of it has to do with one-off factors with the drop in mobile phone prices here in the united states. vonnie: let me come back to you and ask what the main risks that the boe are considering. jill: in comparison to the report last year, it is much more skilled back. the boe says the risks are
standard at this point, but they are still monitoring consumer credit growth, which is why they took the action they did today alongside some global risks emanating from china and any banks exposure to those as well as risks from brexit, of course. they are going to see contingency plans across the u.k. for that process. michael: it's interesting. i just wanted to follow on what joe was saying. you got a similar message for mario draghi and we heard the same from fed officials like bill dudley the other day in switzerland. years of low rates raises the risks of financial instability. talking about banks, but mario draghi and dudley talking about the financial markets as well. the central banks have to keep an eye on what is going on because it is in good times that you make bad loans and markets get overextended.
they are converging on the let's watch what's going on message. mark: with carney tapping banks on the risk today, he said that banks may be forgetting the lessons of the past by relying too heavily on their own estimates of the risks on their books. was that a mild telling off or not? jill: potentially. there was a question the prince conference as to whether he should be telling off consumers who are borrowing at levels seen pre-financial crisis. to that, i think you would just say you need to be aware of the risks and the same advice always applies, especially right now in this heightened uncertain environment. mark: jill will be there later listening to fed chair janet yellen. thanks to our u.k. economy reporter jill ward and bloomberg's michael mckee, our economic policy correspondent. do not miss our coverage of janet yellen's conference.
6:00 p.m. in london in 1:00 p.m. in new york. vonnie: we will be following it. one stock we are watching today is web m.d.. shares of the online health service spiked earlier, as much as 10% at one point. reader demand increasing there and we will keep an eye on exactly why. the other thing i want to engine is that mike lee of utah has made it official that he is also a no on the senate health care bill. we were expecting that, but he has officially expressed his disappointment and says he will be a no. this is bloomberg. ♪
public since 2005. they named the head of the shoe company aldo to be its chief operating officer. patrick frisk will also serve as president and oversee under armour's long-term growth plan. price gains in 20 u.s. cities show the industry is juggling a stable bond with a shortage of inventory. according to the s&p core logic case schiller index, property values rose 5.7% in april from the year earlier. prices keeping some first-time buyers out of the market. that's the latest bloomberg business flash. european equities are performance away from the end of the tuesday session. this is bloomberg. ♪
look of the gr go down today with the industry groups rising today. attention turning to central bankers. of a little later we will have janet yellen. it is a cocktail for uncertainty today. let's get to the banking news of the day. yesterday was italy and today is spain. spain looking to recoup the cost after to lenders listed at 825 million euros. what the spanish government wants to do is recoup some of the losses, some of the funds that pumped into the banking industry. it propped up lenders under pressure after the country's real estate bubble burst. aid andeceiving state be mn receiving its share of euros. i love this chart because it shows global volatility on the
white line, which we know is a multi-year low. policyeconomic uncertainty is the blue line. markets have nothing to fear but fear liste fearlessness itself. the latter is still at elevated levels based on an historic market. it signals complacency in the face of middle east tensions and the withdrawal of fed stimulus, president donald trump's tweets storms. that's according to the bank of international settlements on sunday. that low volatility can spur risk-taking with the potential to unwind quickly. we listen to mario draghi in portugal. yesterday he spoke to a number of students and he told young people that they will benefit from the revival and the eurozone growth, which let me to this chart. this is the us unemployment within the eurozone. and portugal, it is down from 40% to 24%.
spain is 39% with germany 6.8%. italy is 34% in greece is 46%. this highlights the biggest issue facing the eurozone right now. we are much lower now than the levels we saw two or three years ago. vonnie: the u.s. dollar and oil are going in opposite directions once again. it's really fascinating anything about it. the dollar index showing a little weight, but oil up two point 25% today -- 2.25% today. i want to point out the mexican peso that has been strengthening. is the first time we have seen that quite a long time. some selling in the 10-year part of the curve. the quick look at gmm where you will seek currencies that are oil related are higher but not the dollar index. with that, i will send it over to abigail doolittle with a
deeper look at oil. abigail: looking at a rally for oil today up more than 2%. we see the big spike higher come up o, perhaps helped by the dollar weakness. oil is now up for days in a row, the first time that has happened in more than a month. we are releasing some mentality for oil. investors and traders after the big decline below the bottom of that range. not surprisingly this is helping some of the oil stocks. the s&p 500 energy index up 6/10 of 1%, the second best actor for the s&p 500 today. we also sai have some of the top for farmers -- performers like valero saying that the market looks positive. a lot of strength here. on the month, it's a different story. we had that declines.
oil is on pace first was to climb, down 11% for the month of june. it is the worst june since june of 1988. we are at the beginning of the driving season. that should help oil. the last time we had this big decline, it was at the end of an eight year war between iran and iraq. it magnifies the fact that investors are so focused on the global supply glut. relative to the near term, we may be catching a breather here. hop into the bloomberg and take a look at g #btv 299. this is a one-year chart of oil that comes from a bloomberg commodity strategist. it shows this moving trading range. right now, we do appear to be bouncing off the top of it. i spoke with mark newton and he said that the near-term looks bullish. he thinks we could see a little bit of a pullback, something that both aspects would be supported by this moving range of oil. mark: despite the recent rebound, there are still
challenged with where to put their money in the era of low prices. jason kelly is joining us now with perspective from one of the world's largest energy private equity firms. we are joined by alex kruger, the newly appointed ceo of first reserve. great to be with you coul. alex: thanks for having me to tha today. jason: you have been with the investors in london at your global gathering. what are you telling them about what you are seeing in the energy market? alex: we had our annual meeting last year. as you can imagine, the volatility and cyclicality of the spaces front and center with the decline in prices. more relative to them has been a tolback in equity markets
the last six to eight weeks as they see what was a short-lived rally go back to testing 52-week lows. for us, we have been spending a lot of time talking to investors about the way our portfolio has been positioned. we're looking for countries that have upside optionality but well positioned with the defensive nature for many companies to be resilient through a prolonged downturn where we do not see a significant catalyst for commodity prices moving up in the near-term at least. jason: let's talk about that -- those prices staying where they are. what is the investable case there? is is a buying opportunity for folks like you in the market? alex: i think it is. i think it brings a bit of rationality back to sellers in terms of their expectations. in the private sector coming you have much fewer markers for price expectations. people get enticed by recent evaluations that have been seen in the public market. we had an ipo window open up where valuations went to
relatively healthy levels in my opinion. as long as we have price signals like this and sellers expectations come down to rational levels, does create some very good opportunities for us. at do think that part of our positioning has been looking at where we see less commodity price sensitive businesses and businesses more driven by schematics like the need for asset integrity come off at spending at was a large sector globally. the has the has to be a lot of ongoing spending to keep the business running and that is where we are looking at more investments at this point in the cycle. jason: when you look at those deals, is it mostly north america? you obviously have a global footprint. where are the biggest opportunities presenting themselves for buying in the near term? alex: that's a great question, jason. it has been very interesting that the invisible market in north america has obviously been growing as there has been a shift from conventional hydrocarbons to more shale
opportunities, a rebuilding of the permian basin for example is behind this glut of supply that your colleagues are talking about. what largely driven by excitations are in the permian basin and other areas in north america. the buildout of what is necessary to supply dramatic growth in those areas is really where there is a lot of opportunity. a large investable opportunity in north america. at the same time, when you look at going overseas, there is not much risk premium implied in the desire to entice investors into places like west africa, even the north sea and the u.k. without the same macro backdrop of the shale driving an increase in activity, it is frankly harder to find investable opportunities with the same expert tatian's on rate of return by going outside of north america. outside of you think north america, geopolitics is something that comes very much and the energy market. a lot of travel on the part of
the u.s. president of late and a lot of talk about the geopolitical aspects of the energy market. how much does that slow you down? is there a note of caution as you look at some of the forces driving politics out there? alex: well, it's a very manyusly timely given changes going on in the middle east specifically. what's most notable about geopolitics and how it is priced into and thought about the market today is frankly there is no geopolitical premium and oil, at least from my perspective. not above 50 years for five years. -- $50 for five years. there's no concerns for disruptions when you have the bulk of where the largest supplies of oil being russia, saudi, the rest of the middle east. on a are areas where historical basis, most of the world thinks there is a reasonable reason to be
concerned that what you see today in terms of the country's and national oil countries operating at high levels of productivity, there seems to be risk to that. from my perspective, i think that that is an upside, which is that oil prices could move significantly higher on any kind of supply spike or decline disruption. i think that is something that priced into the market today and that is something investors have to look out for. jason: how do you model that in and how much does it affect what you do in the short term in terms of buying and selling? ,lex: as i was saying earlier even that we do not see an atual catalyst, we don't see supply and demand balance issue driving prices higher, we look for prices to stay relatively flat to consistent with a forward curve. that volatility around geopolitical outcomes is actually upside in the way that we take about many of the way our businesses would respond to a price spike and the need for the u.s. at this point in time
is probably the quickest supply response to disruption driving activity north america. businessriving more and better outcomes for the businesses we are invested in and it would be an upside that frankly in today's market you could potentially invest in with a longer-term horizon for relatively and extensively. -- inexpensively. jason: what you have gotten out of in the news is of the infrastructure business. you haven't decided not to pursue more deals as you have in the past. why did you make that decision and wher what do you see going forward in that area? alex: is a great business and energy of for structure space is aearly an area where there is long-term theme of infrastructure buildout both in terms of the oecd, where much of the existing if a structure has to be retooled for changes around shale, as well as the
developing world, where hydrocarbons are necessary. do greate will business over the last eight years. that was recognized by blackrock , who approached us about an opportunity to move our platform over to them. is the that blackrock unique type of situation where they can really take the business and continue to execute upon the strategy that we laid out and execute well for our investors. was a great opportunity for the team and a great opportunity for black rock and first reserve focus primarily on equity business and we will keep doing. jason: alex kruger, thanks for joining us and giving us a good view of the energy market around the world. mark, i'm going to g throw it back to you. mark: got news from the dutch stake, which owns a big in abn amro.
it is to sell a 7% stake in abn amro. it is the stake after the completion of the shareholding that will report a roughly 63%. abn will not receive any proceeds from offering. the dutch state to sell a 7% stake in abn amro. watch out for the shares when they resume trading tomorrow. vonnie: just a little update on where we are with health care, the vice president making comments to reporters in washington, d.c., saying that the senate health care bill. we will continue to work very diligently. this is as we hear a fifth republican saying he will not vote for it. let's check in on the rest of the first word news with courtney donohoe. courtney: the european union has left google with a record $2.7 million fine in an antitrust case. it has to do with google's shopping search service. bloomberg spoke with europe's cup titian commissioner.
-- competition commissioner. >> google has taken an advantage for his own comparison at the cost of its rivals. and being able to do so by misusing the dominant position in general search and that is the key of the case. we have found google to be dominant. courtney: the company has been given 90 days to change its behavior. says it is reviewing the eu decision in considering whether to appeal. a cyber attacks putting across europe today, hitting dozens of companies and some government agencies. more than 80 companies in russia and ukraine were struck by a virus that disabled computers and told users to pay $300 and crypto currency to unlock them. russia's largest oil company was affected, so was a danish shipping. company. house speaker paul ryan confident that the senate will pass the obamacare reckless middle. replacement bill. >> i would not bet against mitch mcconnell. he is very good at getting
things done in the senate, even with this razor thin majority. i have every expectation that the senate -- i don't know what day, but i've every expectation that the senate will move this bill. courtney: senate leaders are trying to rescue the bill. right now there are not enough republican votes for it to pass. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: coming up, we are going to hear from the ceo of the irish bank that is just going public. impactingrexit their business plans. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's turn to one of ireland's major banks right now. ireland sold at 25% stake in aib, raising $3.4 billion after the bailout went to return to the market for the first time in seven years. bloomberg's manus cranny spoke to the ceo, where he discussed where he sees the bank going from here and the banks global ambitions. >> what we have been able to demonstrate even when the state was at 99% shareholder that we run the business very commercially our own and the board has a relationship framework established with the government and the board is totally response will for the day-to-day and strategic direction of the company. that has come through strongly in terms of the difficult decisions we have to make to restructure the business. investor saw that and were comfortable that we were able to do that at 99.9% that we can do it from a stage. manus: when i look at the ambition of aib, i remember aib
from 30 years ago when there was a powerhouse trading room in london and the north american new york significant operation, when it really had international reach. the question is the scale of your ambition. we know the domestic story in ireland is one of recovery. what is the ambition to reengage on a global scale or am i looking at by ireland, ireland ?rogram or ireland story only am i looking at something more expensive? bernard: for now and for the in thember of years medium-term, it's about continuing to do what we are doing at the moment. the business model has been made much more efficient and that's working really well. the irish economy will deliver a lot of growth and we are 40% of that market. we have a presence obviously in nikkei as well. that is one we keep under review and given the opportunities that
it presents, there's a small footprint than the u.s.. it is modest. it is about the efficiency of what we are doing and getting really good at that and making sure that we are the exemplary for everyone in terms of how corporate banking can operate in the new world. beyond the three-year horizon, we will talk about that. manus: always good to have a five-year plan. i will come back to you as my mentor on that. let's talk about nonperforming loans. we have been talking about italian banks all week and the huge velocity and nonperforming loan markets. what are your plans in terms of bringing on more nonperforming loans? can you give us on what you ambitions will be so i can benchmark where the nonperforming loan story goes with the? you? bernard: if you go back to 2012
or 2013, we have $30 billion of nonperforming loans in the bank. below 9nced that we got billion and that's a massive reduction. that's about three to 4 billion so that's the sort of trajectory beer on in another five to 6 billion to come out over the next two to three years coul. we will work through restructurings. we also carry our portfolio sales. we reached the end of restructuring the customers on some of those portfolios and it will be disposed. we disposed of one in april. we can do both and we will continue to do both and we have absolute commitment to that norm within the two to three-year time. mark: getting some breaking news. markpharmaceutical network
mark: time for today's battle of the charge. we take a look at some of the most telling charts for the day and what it means for you, the investor. you can access these charts on bloomberg by running the function features on the bottom of your screen. kicking things off today is abigail doolittle. abigail: today i want to take a look at both bitcoin and the stocks. they are both down this week and bitcoin is down about 15% on the week and on pace for its worst week. the question is whether or not there's a correlation. in blue we have bitcoin up to 55% -- 2-iron 55% over the last year.
you might think that there is some kind of relationship here, especially since a couple of the chipmakers are thought to be using bitcoin. bernstein and he says correlation does not mean causation. as for the huge gains in whether or not they can continue, we do see this area of congestion here. stand, they're nervous about the chip sector that may suggest declines for both. mark: a great chart. vonnie, what have you got? vonnie: we talk a lot about stock market volatility and how low it has been for most of this year. we do not talk much about the move index. it shows the volatility in the treasury market is at lows. lows that we have not seen since right before, guess what this was, the taper tantrum. the federal reserve said it would come out and start tapering purchases. we got this huge spike in the treasure volatility index. we are right down here again.
does it mean we will see a spike? we'll have to wait for the next estimate of that to find out. mark: what numbers that? vonnie: 4929. mark: correlation does not mean causation. love to hear something i did not know. yellen is in london and yours is so closely linked to yellen. i've got to give it to you because will yellen try to get some movement in the market today, so vonnie is the big winner today. later in the next hour, we are speaking to the chief executive of nucor. don't miss it. ♪
♪ vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world that we are following today pit the senate health care plan loses more republican support. e look at senate majority leader mitch mcconnell's efforts to save the bill. under cyberattacks putting across europe and hitting major companies. we look at plans to protect you make and steel industry an exclusive i interview with johnhairman of nucor, ferriola. we had economic data today an individual stories. julie hyman is here to tell us all the important stuff. julie: we have the imf cutting the u.s. growth forecast on the economic growth.