tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg August 21, 2017 2:00pm-3:30pm EDT
julie: we are live in bloomberg world" is in new york over the next hour. your top stories we are covering in the bloomberg and around the world. wall street has jackson hole on his mound as janet yellen heads to the annual summit. unwind's big man could be a shock. the sun is in the spotlight today. we have eclipse fever like everyone else. a total eclipse from coast-to-coast for the first time since 1918. we will talk to the ceo of sunrun. bill's comeback trail hitting another roadblock. blow against nutritional supplements company. u.s. markets close in two hours.
abigail, a lot of bouncing around. abigail: yes. wishy-washy trading. not long ago, both were ever so slightly higher. than nasdaq has mainly been in the red all day, down more so than the s&p 500. down half a percent or so. turnaround drama in d.c., political tensions. the dow and s&p 500 down two weeks in a row right now by a small margin for a third week in a row.the nasdaq down five weeks in a row .the first time that could happen since 2012. wise break it down sector for the s&p 500 by going to the bloomberg and taking a look. there is more green, more sectors in the green than in red. much of the sector composition seems to have to do with what is happening with yields.
we have the 10 year yield down to basis points -- two basis points. , soks have higher dividends they look a lot better when the heels are higher. on the bottom have been energy with oil. ctually, there is energy down .18. if we look at what has been happening relative to the , we have the 10 year yield down around 2.2% in white. in orange, the s&p 500, 2%. up top, real estate and telecom well above 3%. on days when the s 10 year yiel the 10 year yield drops , the real estate's look that much more attractive. that is a we are seeing today. as for the worst sector in the s&p 500, take a look at oil. will down 3% near session lows.
thatearlier told our team this has to do with short last friday where oil popped higher ahead of the weekend. now, those shorts are reversing for us and taking oil lower, in turn taking some of these stocks on what andrew calls the beta whip, including chesapeake energy, apache, and pioneer. declines for the energy sector, interestingly now down nine days. bearish action for sure. julia: thank you so much. today, parts of wyoming are viewing a total solar eclipse. central bankers will be in the cowboy state for the annual economic policy symposium. one of the key topics, unwinding qe on both th sides of the pond. joining us now is michael mckee.
great to have you on the show. i see this being talked about as an action list jackson hold. michael: the motivation is to not make news this time, for different reasons. the fed is setting in place its balance sheet reduction program and they telegraphed they are going to do it in september, so what does she add to that by talking about what the fed might do? if she brings up anything that puts the focus on rate increases , that overshadows what happens in february, and that concerns the markets. mario draghi, his last press conference, he said he will talk about qe in the autumn. it is not autumn yet. he does want to get ahead of the governing council, and how much can he say without them behind him? there is probably not going to be any news, but i say that with the possibility there could be a surprise. julie: even if there is not any news per se, the market has a
way of reading into the comments even if there is nothing new. one about inflation? debate and some soul-searching going on at the fed over the subject of inflation. michael: neither one has set inflation as the title of the speech or the subject of their speech, but it could come up in a broader discussion of central banking and why none of the central banks have been able to generate inflation. is there something changed in inflation dynamics? or does the model they rely on, the phillips curve, that says hold?that those are the kinds of questions that are out there. -- what dor models their models say? that either one address it? hard to know. julia: we have seen an impact on stocks and the likes of morgan stanley up this morning. perhaps there could be a spillover effect.
theybody said as you said telegraphed this so well that it is happening in september and will kick off, but there should not be a problem. how do you think the fed are viewing this? do you think there is nervousness even with all of the telegraphing they have done what kind of impact it could have on stocks? michael: of course there is some nervousness about it. how many times the the u.s. launch astronauts into space and we still have accidents? you can be certain about what the likelihood is, an something can still go wrong. they believe looking at the way the markets have been priced what they already said that it is not going to be a problem. the amounts that are going to be not reinvested each month over the first couple of years are going to be so small that they should not have a discernible impact, but you never know until you get started. they will be keeping a close eye on that. it may come up in janet yellen's because she is talking about financial stability. julia: right. julie: to switch to mario draghi
for a minute, we have already said he is not necessarily going to make news in his speech, but if they are not going to say anything that is different, what are they going to say? michael: that is the frustrating thing for people who expect a lot out of jackson hole. they had a conference for years and years that talk about academic economic subjects, and ben bernanke came and twice gives speeches that laid out are,the fed's next moves so everybody started looking at these speeches as some sort of signaling device. that.d does not like they like to get away from that, particularly when there is no urgency in the markets to change the policy direction. it is becoming or they would like it to go back to being much more of an academic exercise when they talk about the theoretical application of various economic principles and they discussed it and learn from it, but it does not make market moving news, and that may be
what the goal of both mario draghi and janet yellen is going to be this time. julia: sweet spot for central bankers. what about the top o talk on the sidelines about the next fed chair and all the talk we have had as gary cohn came the last couple days? michael: you cannot get away from it. it is something people will chatter about. last time a fed chair was going to leave office, ben bernanke, he did not come to the meeting. janet yellen is coming. she probably has no idea what her future is, so why not show up at this meeting, but it is not going to be front and center because we are a long way away from any kind of decision. nobody knows. donald trump has not signaled in any way really what kind of fed chair he wants. julie: cohn is not going to be there either, right? michael: most of the other contenders will be. julie: interesting. we will be conducting straw polls over the course of the conference. thank you so much, michael mckee.
let's check on the bloomberg first with this afternoon with taylor riggs. taylor: catalan police confirmed the fugitive van attack suspect was a man shot killed in a small town west of barcelona. officials say he was carrying a both of explosives. it was the subject of the massive manhunt since last thursday's attack that killed 15 people and wounded more than 120. the man accused of driving his car into a crowd at white nationalists rally in charlottesville made a court appearance today. authorities say 20-year-old james alex fields, jr., appeared by video. he was denied bail but has another hearing on friday. heather heyer died in the crash, and 19 others were injured. america's top admiral has called for a wide-ranging investigation int. that is after the tanker collided with a boat near singapore. it has significant damage and is
the second fatal collision involving a u.s. warship in the pacific region in two months. production for president trump and his family as to the u.s. secret service under severe financial stress. that is according to "usa today," which suggests this sheer size of the family and to secure their residences has taken a toll. more than 1000 agents already hit salary and overtime caps meant to last the whole year, and they cannot afford to keep paying hundreds more. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. riggs.or this is bloomberg. julia: thank you so much. coming up, is the handle @realdonaldtrump a real winner for business? we will see how they twitter in chief maybe bringing business to the service. keeping track of the solar you are looking at
is "bloomberg markets." julie: i'm julie hyman. he has been called the tweeter in chief, but what kind of financial impact is president trump having on twitter, the company? i went to guests has clinched the numbers and looked at the tangible and intangible effect. joining us now is james. he has a neutral rating on the stock. thanks for coming in to talk to us about this because it has been talked about so much because he is such a prolific tweeter obviously,, and gets a lot of attention for those tweets. you have been quoted as saying this is perhaps a $2 billion fact on the company.
break it down for us. how exactly is that translated? james: let me give you the good news first on twitter's behalf. basically the way i see it is the engaged user base is there to stay. i do not foresee a material change in that figure as well as the monetization prospect of that. the revenue baseline can hold status quo with changes in political relevancy of the service. but if there is a change in the political relevancy, it can impact market value because what you have to consider is the amount of tweets and content thattwitter the plura proliferates across the media, they get 2 million daily visitors a day that are unique from third-party sites that click through tweets. if that traffic goes way, it determines the growth prospects ers the growth
prospects, and you can have an impact on the multiple equally to a $2 billion change. julie: twitter is the nexus of political conversation, whether it be by him, about him, about politics in general? james: exactly. consider this, in the first quarter, we had 10 million new users added to the platform. in the second quarter, we have had zero. 2 million decline in the domestic user base. why is that? you can attribute that to the trump bob and the political -- bump and the political heated conversations we have seen in this sphere. you are seeing in the numbers that the political fatigue is already weighing in on the results. julia: you are saying that the less correlated to politics that people actually realize, but when you are talking about a net impact or negative impact of $2 billion, those things sound infinitely jarring to me.
you say the good news, but it is only that much because we just called him kind of tongue-in-cheek the tweeter in chief because he is so much an identity of twitter at this stage. if he were calmer and tweeting less even if the politics were as interesting but he was not asked flamboyant -- as flamboyant, to use that word, it would drive less traffic. james: not only less traffic, but when you think about the multiples activity to the stock, it is trading at a premium to advisor, but it is growing at an inferior rate. it is growing at an inferior rate because we think the strategy is not the strategy that best capitalizes on the opportunity in front of them. what they should be doing is focusing on the daily active users, monetizing them, fast developing subscription offerings. right now, they are spending money on content, buying undifferentiated content. that is a good thing.
things that put a twitter feed is not going to change the ultimate experience, and they are spending money on this and not capitalizing on the fact that they have the most important real-time content in the world. they are essentially giving up on monetizing the content in twitter, paying for undifferentiated content. if you put that backdrop and losing the political relevancy, it can be pressured. julia: you are saying the strategy and them not monetizing it, but do they stand the difference? look, we arean say generating content, but what you need to understand is it links to something else, which is the google fact. it is bridging that information gap that is particularly important. james: do they understand it? is the exact opposite
of twitter. julie: the right people running the company? james: i don't think you can knock be management team -- i don't think you can knock be management team. set. not the skill it is the strategy. julia: but the timing. there is a belief that content is key. you take the content, and by in the content, and the rest flows. they are just not there yet. james: i do not think it is timing. they need to do a gut check on what they want to be, what they do not want to be, and what they are willing to pay for, and the financial profile they want for the for siebel future. righ-- foreseeable future. the outlook does not make a good risk-reward trade-off. julia: good to talk to you. still ahead, more on the total eclipse sweeping the nation. we show you live pictures of casper, wyoming.
julie: this is "bloomberg markets." trump'sresident donald relations with business leaders coming under severe strain. when he first took allies, he was an ally of business. ceos left his advisory council in the aftermath of the president's remarks about charlottesville. former gm chairman and ceo don atkinson talked about the implications of the ceo exit is earlier on bloomberg. >> i think at some point in time, some accommodation will have to be made, but there is no question that i think it has been demonstrated the president
feels free and often does criticize not only companies, but individuals. , i think ken frazier took a serious position, and i think it was the right one a ceo, but also as an individual. it was a thoughtful resignation from the council, but then there was a personal attack upon him. i think that sort of dialogue's got to be modulated significantly in order to have a more productive conversation, not only on a broad industrial base, but also on an individual basis. respect is kind of critical to a relationship if that encompasses trust. >> what i found interesting is despite all of the chatter, perhaps globalists winning the administration now is you wound
up having an investigation now underway with the chinese intellectual property. also, the worries about steel and how hard the administration will come down on that is in question. for the car industry, what do you see as the material base case risk of a china-u.s. steel trade war? >> well, i can only speak from a g.m. perspective. we source steel more on a local market basis. we buy primarily still in the u.s. from u.s. deal manufacturers. not all of it, obviously. china is from chinese manufacturers. europe, it comes primarily from european markets. the important thing about what i see happening with respect to the auto industry with some of the conversation about nafta, these are multibillion-dollar decisions that have been made by the auto industry in a trade block that encompasses
canada, mexico, the u.s. and has evolved over the decades. therefore, production is much more complicated than you might think. we have to build a supply base. they will be in mexico, canada, the u.s. an recognize there is understanding if you will, there is a trade agreement. to materially change that will be very disruptive to the zipline chain. it can be very disruptive to the manufacturing in the u.s. i think if you were not very careful about how that change comes about, it could be very detrimental to the bottom line manufacturers, and to a certain extent, our foreign competitors that are residing in this country that theiruilt their base, supplier base as well as a manufacturing base, in places like mexico and canada. gm has a large presence
manufacturing base in canada and mexico, not only to serve mexican and canadian customers. you have to understand mexico is one of the best trading countries in the world. they have trade agreements with i will say to doesn't or more countries around the world. dozen or more countries around the world. although we manufacturing mexico at a certain portion of that goes to north america, including canada, american and canadian markets, a lot of it goes internationally. if we somehow disrupt our supplier base so it does not have sufficient capacity or overcapacity because somehow we have to cut back into american and canadian markets, that can be very disruptive. therein lies why it is important the company and the ceo and senior level management is the really engaged with the government in formulating policy, or else you can have the law of unintended consequences kicked in, and the american
manufacturers will again go through a period a disadvantage. julia: that was former gm chairman and ceo dan andersoake. let's take a quick break. still ahead, we are watching the solar eclipse. wow. look at that now. julie: in washington, we have wilbur ross. there is jeff sessions. everybody. it brings the nation together, this u.s. eclipse. julia: wait a long time for the next one. 1918 was the last time. julie: 2024. from new york, this is bloomberg. julia: a specialist. ♪
some of today's big movers. let's start with crude oil, which is now dropping the most since july 5. the opec technical committee is sent to see july compliance from opec and non-opec companies at 90%, which is below the 98% in june. accelerate, and it should start bouncing off the bottom. in metals, we have a rebound in gold today as concerns over the tension in north korea seem to be resurfacing to some extent. the u.s. and south korea have started military drills today. since we talked so much about gold and oil, let's take a look at the chart that shows the gold wti crude ratio. we have seen gold rally this year 11% compared to a 10% slump in crude. that may still be going. it means gold should still be outperforming oil. that is according to a study of past trading patterns.
we have the three-year golden valley we have seen especially versus oil. julia: warren buffett get outbid. a san diego-based energy company agreed to buy oncor electric, a texas power distributor. this is the second time this year that a deal backed by warren buffett was spoiled. bloomberg's columnist looks to the m&a assets and now joins us. great to have you on the show. by profit's standards -- by warren buffett's standards, this is not a big deal, but we have a problem. another patent, too. >> exactly. $9 billion deal, not a huge acquisition for berkshire hathaway, but it was a good deal for the energy division, and we knew the encore process hasn't going on for a while so it seems like this is a great buyer for it. warren buffett was a buyer in many respects, and now the deal has fallen apart, and i comes on the heels of earlier this year the kraft heinz bit falling
apart because talks leaked out to the press. it is very unusual. that was a deal warren buffett was going to take as an owner in kraft heinz.to have a following the way it did is very unusual for warren buffett . it makes you wonder how they will spend almost $100 billion of cash that they now have on the balance sheet. we do not know what kraft heinz will do. was hoping at some point, but it seems like in all respects, they are struggling to find a good acquisition. julie: it is interesting in this particular case because not only did warren buffett lose out, but he seems to have lost out to another mogul. tara: right. julie: paul singer of elliott. first of all, warren buffett does not usually lose, right? , second of all if he does lose, it is not somebody who is quite prominent on the other side. are there any takeaways from that? tara: i think the m&a environment is changing and working against warren buffett in some respects.
singlesked two weeks would be in this warren buffett battle come i would have said no because warren buffett had a great deal on table. people like to sell to him.i am sure the regulator likes the deal he had as well, so for him to lose out is interesting. even in the past if there were ever bidding wars, it was always behind the scenes. we never knew what the other parties were. if warren buffett was involved, he won the deal or we never heard about it. to follow the way it did tells us the difficulties he is running into as a dealmaker. julia: just has to pay more? tara: in this case, they were not willing to pay more. some of these are the targets that would make a lot of sense for berkshire hathaway, that might be the case. he wants to get a good bargain, and there are not a lot of bargains anymore. at what point does he go julia:, you know what? ok,. lots of money.have to do something with it , investors getting frustrated. i will pay dividends.
tara: the dividend came up for the first time this year at the shareholders meeting. warren buffett talked about in three years, they sold $150 billion of cash on the balance sheet that they may have to think about some thing else.that is interesting because he has always been against that . if we do not see a deal this year, that may become a possibility. julie: are there any other potential areas, targets that are being talked about now at this point now that the encore deal is off the table? tara: i would watch kraft heinz. i still think they want to make a major acquisition, something warren buffett will help capital. he was willing to put up $15 billion. whatever they are going to do next, kraft heinz needs to do something. it is the only way they can keep slashing costs and getting margins of. that would be the next thing to watch for warren buffett. or maybe he finds some major acquisition for the conglomerate itself. that would be interesting. julia: i love the idea that the
more people you incorporate, the more likely that news leaks. i love that point. brilliant. julie: thank you so much. next week, david westin will be speaking with warren buffett himself. berkshire hathaway chairman and ceo. you will not want to miss that. that is going to be on august 30 at 1. let's check the headlines for the bloomberg first word news. taylor: mitch mcconnell conceded today that the top forward on repealing and replacing the affordable care act is unclear at least for now. mitch mcconnell in steve mnuchin and a chamber of commerce event. >> obviously, we had a setback on the effort to make dramatic changes on obamacare. the way forward now is somewhat murky. taylor: mitch mcconnell has hinted about turning the page on health care legislation for the time being. congress returns in september
when discussions on raising the debt ceiling are expected to be the top priority. louisiana chrisman steve scalise says a date has not been set yet for his return, but when he reports back to work, and will be based on his doctor's recommendation. he participated today in a conference call with fellow republican lawmakers. steve scalise was shot by a lone gunman that opened fire during a baseball practice in june. he has since had several surgeries. 12 countries have condemned venezuela's decision to secede legislative powers from the assembly. dignitaries included argentina, brazil, mexico, and canada. london's iconic big ben is silent after sounding for the last time today. the bell sounded 12 times at noon and will undergo four years of repairs. it will be the clock's longest sinced of silence 1
1859. theglobal news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. julie: coming up, we will look at how ordering your grande latte via your smart phone can boost starbucks shares. details, next. from bloomberg, this is new york. ♪
house. i hope he has glasses. it is a partial eclipse. totality is now apparently occurring in south carolina. julia: never mind donald trump not wearing glasses. are those appropriate sunglasses the first lady is wearing? i have an exciting fact. get how he would travel across america if you wanted to chase the solar eclipse effectively and keep the moon's shadow in view. julie: how fast? julia: 200-4000 miles per hour. julie: there is a plane traveling at high altitude at high speed to chase it to make totality last as long as possible. it is time now for our stock of the hour. we are looking at starbucks. that stock is rallying today after an article said the company can jump by 20% in the next 12 months. emma chandra is here with more. that is a pretty ambitious call, especially considering the drop in the stock after the most recent earnings report.
emma: yes, and i will get to that point in a second, but this comes down to global payments and mobile pre-orders. a big cover piece this weekend with the mobile ordering picking up in-store has proved to be extremely popular at starbucks. it accounts for 9% of all u.s. sales. 'paying on starbuckss mobile app -- paying on starbucks's mobile app is 30%. if you compare it to something like apple pay, they do extremely well. julia: as far as actually walking into a starbucks store versus pre-ordering online, wouldn't make you more incentivized to order coffee -- would it make you more incentivized to order coffee? emma: people that want their copy already know what they want and have a chance to pick it up
quickly in-store. one of the problems was the fact that it causes bottlenecks in stores. that is something starbucks needs to work on. , theyy can get that right instituted something called digital order manager, which i thought was really interesting. people picking up know exactly where to get a copy. julia: you mentioned it earlier, julie, they had a poor earnings report and the stock fell a huge amount on that. that shows comp sales have been doing poorly. only 4%, so still a lot of work. julie: still better than a lot of other service food companies. emma: they can grow better.
julia: great to have you on. turning to the eclipse, ui looking at a live shot of the looking at-- you are a live shot of the first lady and donald trump. julie: the first son baron. julia: many people taking a break from work to do the event, but we look at how businesses are reacting an approaching this and getting in on the action. bloomberg's emily chang has a closer look. ♪ emily: thousands of people will be lining up and watching the first total solar eclipse in nearly a century visible only in america. from google to airbnb are offering ways to watch the spectacle like never before. it isi am, san francisco, the ideal place to see the total effect of eclipse.
to truly see that, you need to be along the path of totality, a 70 mile wide, 3000 mile-long lib that will cut across -- line that will cut across the country. the best view is for nasa pilots.their mission is to chase the darkness . hope to capture the clearest images of the corona's the sun's outer atmosphere, as well as the first ever thermal images of mercury, but for those of us not lucky enough to go supersonic, there are other ways to watch. google is partnering with the education company mystery science to hand out 14,000 pairs of these glasses to make it safe for kids and teachers to watch. as nasa will remind you, it is dangerous to car to look at the eclipse through homemade lenses, and for those not in the path of the eclipse, they can get a taste of what they are missing through google earth thvr, but there is also a different type
of dark side to this event. amazon is waging war on sellers that are selling fake glasses that can damage the eyes of unsuspecting shoppers. the company issued refunds to customers who bought the knockoffs and issued a warning email. airbnb. over 24,000 homes along the path of totality have registered on the home sharing site with 50,000 incoming guests.that is nearly four times the number who stay in the same area last year. in,rtz is also cashing bringing an excerpt cars. this after the company faced online backlash after canceling reservations.even the company next is helping people use save energy by precooling eligible homes. all in all, the eclipse can interrupt productivity. it will also test the nation's
power grid. a bloomberg report suggests the clips can knock-down 9000 megawatts of solar power. that is the strength of nine nuclear reactors and the energy to power 7 million homes. if solar energy drops, more power plants across the country will have to pick up the slack given this once-in-a-lifetime event. julie: that was emily chang. i just want to mention we have up there still the shot of charleston, south carolina, where it looks like they are just about at totality there. it almost completes its journey, the clips across the country -- the eclipse across the country. committees will be testing their power grids. sunrun ceo joins us now from san francisco. summit is the largest residential solar developer in the u.s. think you for joining us. obviously a very interesting day for you to be talking to us. talk to us about your plans and
how you all have been preparing for today. >> absolutely, the best part of the sun is it is reliable so wendy's eclipses happen, which happen once a generation, we have a lot of advanced notice so we were able to work with a grid operators, and were able to procure power to meet the needs during the eclipse. i think it is important to put this into context, too, when you look at our overall traditional power sources. they go off-line all the time and without a lot of notice. annually, they will go out to ,000 times the power loss we will see from this eclipse so the sun is really there. it is reliable. we are asking our customers to turn their power down and enjoy it. is this testing how you react to an event where you have solar power as the dominant
force in the country so you can look at what the options are and switching between one and the other because as you said, tons .f solar power >> the cost reductions have been so significant that it really is becoming the dominant source of new generation. the segment that my company operates in, which is on the rooftop, also adds a different dimension. we often think about renewables as one in the same, but there is a difference between the large renewablesle and what we do at the home level, which is really pushing out using the rooftop to produce the power, using your electric vehicle to store the power, giving a battery on this grid, and what we are going to see is a system that will be much more reliable with the addition of this rooftop's solar storage in the electric vehicles, and i
really look forward to that. julie: we have been talking to private operators and utilities and scientists will use this as an opportunity to test the system, the software, etc. is there anything you are doing during the eclipse at sunrun? are you testing battery capacity, for example? what exactly are you all going to be observing? >> for our customers, we have customers across the country so a full gigawatt of power, and we certainly can test to see is that we how our systems will produce during this eclipse, and we will do that. we will record the data. we also look at what the consumer patterns are. what we successful when we asked our consumers to bring their consumption down? will be successful doing that? -- were we successful doing that? haven't once every 300 400 years at any given point.
what we are more focused on is how do we get the storage to be cost-effective so when there is a situation like this, we are able to fill up the battery with solar power and dispatch into the grid when the grid needs it most. sensitive toeverly what we see at the state level in terms of policy. i know the company recently atered nevada after we saw change in state policy decision reversed their and new laws infecte enacted. what are you seeing driven to a certain extent by the rhetoric and the totally get from this administration and the decision to pull out of the paris climate accord? how do you view it? >> from a consumer value standpoint, this is really bipartisan because it saves people money so just the basics of our product are on average, a homeowner will save 20% to 30%
on your electric bill without having to put any capital out. we have already saved our customers $150 million. the question is, how much can our customers actually help the entire grid, the entire system, all of society? that is what these debates are about often because our homes will use 70% of our, but some of it will flow -- power, but some of it will flow to our neighbor. what the regulators help decide is how much should that our be worth? should it be at retail price for lesser? when you run an estimate is very valuable because the solar is producing at the peak time. the policies you see across our states really value the export of power in a fair way. that i believe is what you are speaking about at the state level. if you arewould hope running a solar company that that would be the view, but it is not always the view, right? in other words, solar tax
credits, whether it is on the state or the national level, is not always used in a benign or positive fashion. so i am curious what your outlook is for national tax policy reform, whether congress gets to it this year or next year. how concerned are you and how might you be prepared for those national solar or federal solar tax credits to go away? >> it is interesting because globally, fossil fuels have about 4 times the subsidies of renewable. all of theok across subsidies that have been given to renewables in the u.s., there is great research that shows we have produced our health care costs greater than the total value of our subsidies. i am confident that when we look at the substance of what we are bringing to society broadly with green energy and just the consumer interest in it, the voter interest in it, the policies will hold. furthermore, the policy was extended. the tax policy you are referring
to was extended under bipartisan congress and has trie strong bipartisan support so we expect it will be sustained. julia: interesting regarding the relative subsidies.great to chat to you , sunrun ceo and cofounder.coming up , looking to hit the right notes as it slipped with an initial public offering.we will call you tell you about the company's latest chats with u.s. regulators. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: this is "bloomberg markets." julie: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. spotify's plans are under scrutiny. is up for further details of the plan. spotify is aiming to bypass the traditional share sale which would eliminate underwriting
fees and prevent dilution of investor holdings. alan howard is moving back to london after seven years in geneva. the founder of a hedge fund cited personal reasons for the return. his fund recently suffered its worst half since 2003. fundslity has hurt hedge that follow economic trends. that is your bloomberg business flash update. julia: the peak of the total eclipse. we will give you a look. there you go. look at that. the clouds swirling. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: it is 3:00 p.m. in new york and 8:00 p.m. i am julia chatterley. julie: i am julie hyman, in for scarlet fu. we are live in headquarters in new york. here are the top stories on the bloomberg and around the world. bill ackman's comeback trail hitting another roadblock. herbalife's stock i back program are dealing a blow to -- a blow to ackman's bet against the supplement company. a total eclipse crossed the united states, coast-to-coast, for the first time since 1918. we are looking at life victors of south carolina, where we are nearing the end of the peak of the eclipse. julia: we are one hour from the close of trading. abigail: we are looking at very small moves for the major averages, flipping between gains and losses. the doubt to the upside.
the nasdaq fractionally lower. the nasdaq down most of the day, down about 0.2%, dragged down by semiconductors plus some of the big tech names. this follows weekly declines for the three major averages. four in a row for the nasdaq. the dow and s&p 500. with this tiny decline, we're looking at a third weekly decline for the s&p 500. time that has happened since june of last year, around the time of exit. the week is very young. let's see whether this holds. sometimes, inflection points. we have had a nice rally this year. they can happen somewhat slowly. suddenly, we could be looking at a slow change. time will tell. let's look at retail along with some of the athletic goods makers. nike down about 2.7%. , finish lineown down as well. foot locker falling 7% after a
decline on a disappointing quarter. all three names have been downgraded, nike to a neutral over at jefferies. the analyst site intensifying competition. foot locker down nearly 30% last week, on friday. cut at their two neutral on a lack of visibility. lots of other factors. this sector remains under pressure. rounding it out, going across asset classes, a small haven bid. we have the 10 year yield down one basis point. bonds are rallying to a small degree. that is dragging on the bloomberg dollar index. yen, thehe japanese currency is rallying against the dollar. gold up about 0.6%. basically, very small moves on the day in all asset classes. one stock that is moving today is herbalife, it's best day since may. a series of moves this morning,
including talks to go private. a new stock i back plan. and a pact with big investor carl icahn. here to sort out the news and its affect on bill ackman is scott. a bad day for bill ackman at the office, but it could have been worse. scott: it could have been. i do not know how much worse. it certainly was a bad day. julia: it is a bit confusing, this whole thing going on. is carl icahn the one they were in talks with to go private? scott: i think they specified that it was an institutional or financial player that was interested. the implication is that it was a private equity player that they were in talks to go private with. julia: that is the critical question. you have private equity potential that has done the due diligence and said, not interested area scott: that is not a bad thing for bill ackman. it means somebody did some work on this and did not come to the conclusion -- julia: it was a buy.
scott: or the valuation considerations were in line with what the company is acts. julie: what is the agreement with carl icahn? why don't they want him to increase his stake to more than 50%? scott: i think they are finally come increasing it to more than 50%, but if he does, he has to make a play for the entire company. he cannot slowly get up to 80% without making a bid once he crosses the 50% threshold. julia: we're looking at a potential offer to take it private. what impact do you think the announcement by the chinese regulators had, cracking down on potential concerns about pyramid schemes in the country? i am not drawing a direct association, only accusations bill ackman has said. a fifth of their revenue is based in china. to today,we lead up before the shareholder-friendly measures were and limited, herbalife was having a pretty
bad month. you will recall earlier this month they had one day in particular where it dropped 8% because there was heightened concern that china was going to crack down on herbalife and other companies in terms of marketing practice. there was some pressure on the stock, and obviously these measures are intending to pop it up a little bit. we heard anything from bill ackman recently when it comes to herbalife? he has been pretty steadfast this whole time that he is still shorting the company and still negative on herbalife. have you heard anything recently? scott: i have not heard anything to persuade me he is not still short this, or that he has changed his opinion on the structure. he has been blunt about it. he said he thinks it is a pyramid scheme. i do not think he was ever dissuaded them that message. julia: that makes sense. julie: it is about 84%. julia: that was a nervous laugh.
julie: he said he thought it was going to zero. scott giving us the details on a very busy day covering this and other stories. for more, let us bring in the cio and director of research at tigris financial partners. he is joining us on the phone. i then has a bu -- ivan has a buy rating on herbalife. what does all of this back and forth between carl icahn and the company, and the fact this private equity deal did not happen -- what does that tell you about herbalife right now? ivan: the fact there is some interest is positive, by a private equity firm. that may not be the right time. markets are not giving your stock the respect it deserves, maybe going public is a good idea. herbalife, a while back, said they were going to buy back a billion and a half dollars worth of the stock. i am sure companies are always open to talking about going
interested anybody in buying them. i think this is a normal move in the course of their business plan. julia: what you make of the announcement by the chinese regulators, and what impact you think that actually had to play for someone looking for the opportunities here, and going, this is a country where we are going to see some crackdown on their operations and a fifth of the company's revenues? do you think that was a consideration? a knee-jerk cause reaction for the stock to selloff. however, when an industry is properly regulated, that is good for all participants. i do not think the goal of the regulators would be to eliminate multilevel marketing, because it is a viable and well-known method of sales and distribution, and it plays very well in the chinese market. chinese people like to do business with people they like, and with friends and family. they are very entrepreneurial and industrial. they do embrace the companies
that offer multilevel marketing programs like herbalife. julie: at the same time, when you look at herbalife's overall revenue, the growth has been slowing over the past few years, which is typical to some extent of a company like this. you get diminishing returns over time. how is that growth going to ramp back up? are you confident that herbalife has a plan? ivan: i think the primary reason for the slowing growth has been ,he distraction of bill ackman having these multilevel marketing companies, especially herbalife, i just have a classify distributors and users. i think that the implementation of a lot of the compliance rules has cost the level of sales. i believe that they will go back to their ultimate peak of sales, a few years ago at 5 billion
dollars. i think they will continue to grow at 8% and can grow to a significant level from there. julia: what is your price target on this? ivan: we really do not have price targets in our analysis, that i think the company is significantly cheap to an intrinsic value measure, based on where they can grow their return on capital to somewhere around -- julia: do you think bill ackman been discredited on this now? ivan: you see, i think shorting is a good practice. however, trying to be the catalyst of the demise of a company is not a good practice, and i think he on some level has gone too far. obviously, he is at some level lost money. i know his original short was a number of years ago, around $40. i do not know if he was nakedly short the stock or hedged with some options, or created the short exposure with some options. so far, he has been wrong, but
bill ackman has a good track record. smart guy. a pretty i am a little surprised about some of the recent things that have happened. julie: do you think ackman has some points? do you think that herbalife perhaps was using some practices that were not best practices, whether ethically or legally, changes the ftc-imposed are a positive thing? are: i think the changes positive. however, i think his original thesis was flawed. his belief that -- unfortunately, if more than 80% of your end buyers are distributors, you could be classified as a pyramid scheme. however, the majority of people uping herbalife usually sign as a distributor even if they have no intent as redistributing, just because they want the initial discount. if they are going to buy the products, they sign up as a distributor. the biggest change is that now
herbalife classifies its customers that are and users but not distributors as preferred customers. then, those who are distributors would be business builders. if a preferred customer would like to become a distributor, they pay an additional fee of $25, and then they can be a distributor. but more than 90% of herbalife customers are now classified as preferred customers, and are not really distributors. julia: when we began this conversation, you were dismissive of the timing of this potential private equity involvement. you said the timing did not work. do you expect those talks to restart? what would be the factor? is it about price? we mentioned how the stocks rallied 84% since bill ackman established his short. there are positives that need to play out here first? stock also dropped a
lot when he first announced his short and his thesis of the company. when it was higher, it went down, and then it went back up. look at it two ways. at one point, it was higher, and it has gone up from its low point. however, private equity buyers look at companies based on the opportunity of taking it private. and can the company earn a return to cover the cost of taking it private? sometimes, you want to take the company private that has some toues, and then go back market when things are better. there are factors that are taken into consideration when a country -- a company is in talks to go private. julia: thank you for your insight. that is the ca -- ceo and director of tigress financial partners. next, we hear from ireland's prime minister on how brexit will affect his company and what
julie: this is bloomberg markets. i am julie hyman. julia: i am julia chatterley. the irish prime minister is on a visit to canada, meeting justin trudeau in an effort to promote canada-irish ties. the prime minister is standing by with my colleague in toronto. take it away. reporter: julia, thank you so much. and thank you for being here. i appreciate it. let's begin with brexit. the e.u. has said it is only going to talk trade with the
u.k. once we get more progress in terms of understanding what the terms of the divorce are going to look like. you think that is likely by the october deadline that the e.u. has floated? brexit is ar: british policy. they are the ones who decided to leave, to and this marriage. as far as ireland is concerned, we are staying at the heart of europe. we are a member of the euro and the single market and are staying at the heart of the common european home we helped to build. as far as negotiations go, the european position is very clear. we will only be willing to talk about the new relationship, the new terms of trade, when there is sufficient progress on three important issues. first is the rights of e.u. citizens, british people living ineurope, europeans living britain. the divorce settlement, the amount of money that britain will pay. and thirdly and very importantly for me, some very specific issues related to ireland, as
they are our next-door neighbor. they are still our largest trading partner. we share a border between northern ireland and ireland. it is only when the european side, the 27 member states who are staying, are satisfied that we have made enough progress in those areas. we can then talk about the new relationship after they leave. reporter: do you get the sense that the e.u. is pleased with the progress it has seen so far? p.m. varadkar: no, i think i would be right to say on behalf of the european government that we are not satisfied with the progress that has been made so far. however, we will continue in the talks. they are ongoing. the european side and the british side -- we will allow the talks to continue. we hope more progress can be made and that progress will be sufficient when we meet in october to allow the talks to continue to the next phase. but to date, the progress has not been sufficient. reporter: on particular topics, where would you say there has been the most frustration on the lack of progress? p.m. varadkar: there are three
main areas when it comes to citizens rights we think orebody who is italian polish or french who has been living in london for years, working hard, paying taxes, should be allowed to stay there. we believe that people who are british and maybe started since spain or italy should be allowed to stay there. -- who started new lives in spain or italy should be allowed to stay there. we do not know about family members who would like to relocate and live with their loved ones. there is no agreement yet on the amount of money britain will pay. there are outstanding legal obligations -- pensions, for example, paid to european civil servants, many of whom are british. on ireland, there has been some progress. we are satisfied we are going to keep the common travel area, that british and irish citizens will be able to move really between the islands, live, work, access health and education in both countries, as we do now. i am reassured with the commitment of the u.k. government to the peace process
in northern ireland, continuing to fund he's building measures in northern ireland. an area i feel strongly about is that there should not be a trade border on the ireland island. we do not have sufficient progress. reporter: say the u.k. does not get the trade deal it wants with the e.u. how concerned are you that they end up adding we are going to put in a hard border between the republic of ireland and northern ireland is to mark -- ireland? p.m. varadkar: our confusion is the premise of your question. what trade agreement does written want with the european union? at the moment, they have the best trade deal imaginable, a customs union, and access to the european economic area. what they seemed to suggest all isng for the last 14 months that they want to have all the advantages of being in the e.u., but none of the responsibilities and cost. that is not a realistic position. we are waiting to see what they would like to me. what strikes me being here in today, the month on
european-canadian trade agreement will come into ours. when britain leaves the european union, it is leaving all of those trade agreements that europe has made with companies -- countries like canada, japan, south korea. it is not yet clear to us what are these better deals that the british government really wants from europe and other countries. i think more clarity in that area would be helpful. you will be visiting the border between canada and the u.s. tomorrow. what are you hoping to learn from that visit? p.m. varadkar: it is a fact-finding mission. i am not far from the border here. i thought while i am here, it would be a good opportunity to take a look. some of the promoters of exit who are very much behind brexit have used the u.s.-canada border as an example of a border that they believe is not a hard order, that is seamless and frictionless. i am skeptical that is the case, but i would like to see it with
my own eyes. if i am going to get into debates and discussions about what kind of order should exist in europe, i would like to know what some of the others in the rest of the world look like. whether it is between northern ireland and ireland or between britain and europe, we should not be building borders. we should be building bridges. it is a real step backward for me as a person, a u.s. citizen, an irishman, and a politician, to see anyone talking about building new borders. i think that is the wrong direction politically and economically. but that is their decision and we will do our best to work with the buddhist government to minimize the damage. -- with the british government to minimize the damage. reporter: sounds like some of the lingwood we heard from justin trudeau. your country has one of the lowest nominal tax rates. the u.s. has one of the highest. how concerned are you about tax rates in the u.s.? p.m. varadkar: when it comes to personal taxes, ireland is far from the lowest. a lot of people in ireland hey
quite high tax rates at very modest incomes. as prime minister, i am working to bring down taxes on labor, taxes on individuals. we have a simple rule around corporation tax, 12.5%. it has been for decades. it is not going up or down. we give business certainty. it is a certainty that is almost as important as the rate, and that will remain the same. but the u.s. decides to do is a matter for themselves. they reduce corporate taxes further, we do not have any difficulty with that. that manythe view companies want to have a european base, and ireland is ideal -- in europe, in the eurozone, english-speaking, with a favorable tax rate and business environment. reporter: what is your take on donald trump overall? p.m. varadkar: i have not had a chance to meet him yet. i have spoken with him by phone. i hope to visit him in march as
part of the st. patrick's day celebrations. i think it is fair to say the policy and character of my government, the government i lead, would be very different to that of president trump. relations between ireland and the united states are really important. their economic, cultural. there are enormous family links, including my own family. those are bigger than any prime minister in ireland, bigger than any presidency. i will continue the friendship between ireland and the united dates, even if that means having to disagree on a lot of issues like climate change and multilateralism. reporter: and your number one trading partner. thank you for being here. julia: the irish prime minister and our reporter in canada. time for options insights with julie hyman. julie: joining me today is jim strube are of an cam holders. km holdings.
you have been watching a lot of renewed interest in the vix. volatilityle bit of over the last couple of weeks. open interest prior to its expiration last wednesday was at an all-time high. some of it expired. it declined a little bit. calls is of puts to near an all-time high as well. an interesting set up. if you look at the individual components, not a lot of hedging activity going on at the single stock level. it is as if people are still pretty constructive, but if they want to express a little bit of concern about this market, they are rushing into volatility products like the vix. julie: but you see the put/call ratio -- jim: i am sorry, near its lows. people are long volatility. julie: let's talk about one area
that has been interesting, which is retail. your trade today is on burlington, on the discount side of the spectrum. you are not that negative on burlington. jim: we are pretty constructive. roxanne meyer is our analyst, and there are three names to focus on -- tjx, burlington, and ross. reported 3%stores same-store sales, a nice increase, on better merchandise margins. this group is lower the last several months with much of retail, because of the threat from amazon. this is the quarter to prove this is not a group that is going to be swallowed up by amazon. two of three have already reported, and we have seen that. ross stores traded up about 10%. we think there is a bit of an edge going into burlington's report before thursday.
we want to position for that. julie: the trade is a call spread you are looking at for december. not necessarily pegged closely to this earnings report. jim: we get a nice earnings report from burlington. the stock moves up 6%, 7%. december, use, out in to 105 call90 spread. if we move up, it is almost a three for one payoff. we want to be out there as the stock works higher. julie: back to you, julia. julia: still ahead, outer space is attracting billionaires. find out why. ♪
after a usa today report which said the sheer size of the trump family and the need to secure multiple residences has taken a toll. the agency says more than 1000 agents have already hit salary and overtime cap cement the last hole year. on not lifted, a third of the agents will be working overtime without pay. catalonia police say all members of the terror cell kind last week's deadly van attack in barcelona are either dead or under arrest. the regional police confirmed officers shot and killed the man behind the wheel of the van. four of the men suspected in the attacks are under arrest or dead. two were killed in a home explosion after the last attack. search and rescue efforts continued for 10 missing sailors in the pacific after the uss john mccain collided with an oil tanker near singapore. defense secretary james mattis