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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Open  Bloomberg  September 13, 2017 2:30am-4:00am EDT

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♪ guy: good morning. cash equity starts trading and 30 minutes time in europe. we will bring you the first trade of the day. i am guy johnson, imf in london. matt miller is back in berlin. what are we watching this wednesday morning? the state of the union. jean-claude juncker lays out his version -- vision of europe. with a recovery underway, can the present of the commission claim credit for the success question mark carney's -- for
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the success? would you buy a $1000 iphone? look at last night's news from apple and ask if it is justifying the stocks 40% rise this year. matt: we are less than half an hour away from the start of cash trading, take a look at where futures are indicating, they will go down as the indication we see. s&p futures indicating down. asian markets were down. we see gains in currencies, never a good sign for long equities trade area take a look at the bund trade. we are unch on the bund. college 0.4 if you want to round up a little bit. wantl it .4% if you to round up a little bit.
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we had talked about a .6 target. british pound as you were mentioning, the british pound is dead and we get wage data out at 9:30 a.m. yesterday we had this higher-than-expected cpi, pay attention to what is happening with the british pound. european stocks are well bid yesterday and it will the interesting to see if that carries on. probably the early indications are we are not going to be seeing that happening. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here's juliette saly. apple has unveiled its $999 iphone which features augmented reality and facial recognition technology as well screen.ed
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modelss one of three that was shown off today. they rolled out an updated apple watch with a cellular connection and a tv set that supports higher definition video. u.s. president donald trump will visit china in november as tensions flare on the korean peninsula after pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests. trump is expected to attend the asia-pacific economic cooperation and association of southeast asian nation summits and vietnam and the philippines in november. white house officials declined to comment. donald trump has hosted three democratic senators in a white house dinner as he attempts to win their support for an as yet on related tax overhaul bill that would be written by republican leaders. joe manchin of west virginia, heidi camp of north dakota and joe donnelly of indiana are the three to have not signed on to a list of conditions for supporting any tax legislation.
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wolfgang schoblech theexpect to be offered position after election. merkel would be willing to pay a high political price to extend his tenure. mexico will most likely expand its oil hedge marginally for next year as it liberalize as gasoline prices. in an exclusive interview, the finance minister said the cost for the government to protect crude exports against a drastic drop in prices will be the same as this year. is likely to be marginally higher in terms of the fact we do not have the natural coverage we used to have. we import.s much as st is true that the margin
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[inaudible] has reduced as well. and eu brexit negotiators have postponed next week's scheduled round of divorce talks by a week. they were due to meet in brussels and monday but will gather september 25. the delay is adding to signs that theresa may is planning a public speech on her latest strategy. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. guy and matt. employment figures for the summer are expected to show job creation along with a modest rise in pay. that dated do 9:30 a.m. london time. figures showed renewed inflation pick up in august. market started
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pricing and an increased probability of a rate hike or earlier probability of a rate hike from the bank of england. will today's data dissuade traders from taking that same track today? get a decent wage, it is slightly higher than expected wage increase, people are going to go for it. the market is getting a bit frustrated with the bank of england, they have heard too much of this, they are sitting on the fence. the bank of england people are saying they cannot do anything ofause of the -- because brexit. look at other wages and other factors, people are saying it is about time you do a rate hike. the meeting could be one of the most interesting we have had all year and if you get a decent number today it could be off to the races. matt: i have been hearing a lot of talk about how north korea, the situation is affecting markets. i see it but i wonder why.
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isn't this a binary situation, either nuclear war and we all die or it is not? is being be the excuse wheeled out a bit too often. they did respond to the latest sanctions and they sounded a bit upset about it as they do. although there are reports coming from south korea that they see movement again on the north korean side and it looks as though they could be getting ready for another missile test. there is some concern about that. it might be that people are a little bit tired after a couple of days of ignoring north korea and not sure what to go for. there are a number of moving parts as we can see in the markets. we have central banks meetings coming up. people are not sure why short-term moves are happening. trying to confuse everybody. there is a lot of moving parts at the moment. sometimes it is hard to see if there is any one particular reason why the dollar is
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stronger or weaker. matt: speaking of certainty or uncertainty, jamie dimon said he is certain how he would do with bitcoin,or working on he would fire that traitor because it is stupid. trader working on bitcoin, he would fire that trader because it is stupid. matt: i have to ask not only because of my interest in bitcoin, as a thought hobby. you work with a ton of traders on the mliv blog, what does it matter what the underlying asset is? if it is a market and it is volatile and you can make money on it, why should you not trade it? mark: there is sentiment risk which is important. if you have any doubts about the
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ability to settle for something safely you should not be involved because you could exposure institution to the glasses. i am sure jamie dimon is aware of that and that is partly why he said it. yous not too sure how settle these things and the chances for fraud and factors like that. if they got fired for doing stupid things most trading rooms would be empty because everyone does something stupid in their trading life at least once. largehat could be rid across everybody's lives. want to go back to what the bank of england may or may not end up doing. if today's data is strong, how strongly bid would you expect the pound to be? pent-up, the positioning is asymmetric. i am wondering what the positioning squeeze could look like if we do get a decent number today. go a very long way. goyou think, if you consider
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all the way back to the actual brexit vote in june last year, we were trading somewhere closer to 1.5 on the pound against the dollar. look at where we are, 133 or so and it went down so quickly from 120,50 area to the technical resistance is pretty limited between here and the 150. if they get the sense that u.k. interest rates are going up, the pound could raise very quickly. matt: thanks we're time this morning, a lot covered there. mark cranfield, bloomberg mliv strategist. you can follow his live market teams, enterthe mliv for access. you can also watch this program and listen to the radio program using tv if you are a customer. we have event coverage. what i think is interesting here
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, the video feed is at the bottom. about thetch talk rules change. we will show you a bit about that. vikram pandit talking about tax and you can see how formula one plans to expand finally in the digital platform. you can see it coming up on the interactive tv blog, the chief economist of citigroup. we will talk about the future of the fed and the ecb and the bank of england. and whether the world is ready for tapering. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets, the european open. let's get out to singapore for the bloomberg's us/, for that we go to juliette saly. toshiba has signed a memorandum of understanding. it aims to reach definitive agreement by the end of the month. in recent months the process has met resistance from western digital which has argued it has rights in any deal and filed arbitration and the u.s. protectionbankruptcy after working out a deal with it
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senior lenders to inject $1 billion of new money into the company. they will extend the maturity on $5.7 billion in debt with no amortization payments due. until 2020. the must get corporation to sign the lender proposal. out -- meetingt recovery for luxury watches. revenue increased 12% excluding currency shift in the five months through august, the fastest five months sales growth since 2012 and that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: thank you. the iphone x is here featuring an edge to edge screen, augmented reality. the price tag under 1000 bucks. is around -- is shares ended yesterday's session
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slightly lower. some of the functionality on the higher end phone is new, it is innovative, no one else's offering it. is it enough to keep the stock rolling? that it will.hink particularly around some of the augmented reality features and the new camera related technology that is in there. ultimately, this phone is not coming out until november which is quite a lead time. we will see how that plays in the company's fourth-quarter calendar year results which are where a lot of investors look to see how the company is projecting into the future. i understand the facial recognition features come a very cool and more secure than the fingerprint feature. screen helps your battery life longer. i do not get what augmented
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reality really is. aside from kids sending snapchat's with bunny ears on their selfies, what is augmented reality? >> i think that is fair. i do wonder what people are using this for in their everyday life. that is something apple opened up this thing called ar kit, a platform where developers can build different applications. just like the app store created these things that people had not thought of, apple is hoping the developers will run with this and create something that will become more of an everyday kind of use.
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+++ evolution, we had the video of steve jobs unveiling the iphone. that was a revolutionary product. it changed so much in terms of the way that we conduct our daily lives. expectation was incredibly high. even with the augmented reality, even with the new screens and the other bells and whistles, it does not feel like we are at that kind of moment. and i saw a new tv box and saw a bunch of other things. it did not again feel like that point in time but my question to you, does it need to? do we need to be at that position? apple has become so much more than it was then and i am wondering if we are comparing apples with apples. >> it is a bit different. apple was not the biggest company in the world and the attention it gets, it has become impossible for them to have a big surprise in the way they did with the initial iphone. the business is not predicated on necessarily them surprising somebody who has never owned an apple connect and trying to win them over. they do surely want that. it is more about getting people to stay on the treadmill and keep buying new ones every.
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. -- every few years. it is extraordinary the way they changed the way people communicate and live. matt: maybe the watches that product. i am excited to not have a phone at all if i can do it all on my watch. ranks.hift into shifting operations out of london in two other european cities as a result of brexit. banksuld see some quitting the industry altogether therding to the head of investment bank at ubs. he spoke with erik schatzker. >> i think there is an element that probably was not clear to everybody when this came to bear. we're talking about people. so let's for second suppose that in europe location a
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and not location be. in that decision there are a number of factors but one of the most important to my the people you have need to be ready to move to that location. are they? it may not like that location. depending on the location people may not move, move to another bank but choose a better occasion, or leave the industry. i have a family and london, 15 years. i tell that family we are moving to whatever. frankfurt. great.ople may say i would love to go. and others say no way, i am never going to frank for it. if many people say we are not going we need to replace them. can your place them in frankfurt? you need to find enough people that want to go to frankfurt. are they there already? >> is the local market of talent able to provide you that talent
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in that location, nobody knows exactly. can you house the people who are moving with schools, with -- you made the decision already. you have been looking at madrid and amsterdam and frankfurt. why not make a choice already? bank, every investment financial institution is affected by that is running scenarios because it is difficult to implement whatever strategy related to brexit you want to implement, knowing exactly how long you have, and not knowing that. it is difficult or it is different for ubs or for anybody to implement if you have one year or if you have three years. we are going to get some transitional arrangements, yes or no. -- how isch going to each country going to provide the logistical support, the attraction for our employees,
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the housing, the schools question like these things are getting evaluated and the country can adjust. let's suppose we took frankfurt. let's suppose we are going to frankfurt. to have confidence frankfurt could provide the talent, the schools, the housing, in a five-year period. holy s. in one year, a lot more difficult. those cities in the running? >> everything is on the table but they are still in the running. apple's european suppliers. we are counting you down to the state of the union delivered by jean-claude yunker -- junker. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: we have four minutes to go until european cash starts trading for equities. we are expecting a marginally soft open but it is at the margin. sales, up by 12%. the estimate for around 10%. bank of america merrill lynch has raised it this morning to a buy. 21 holds and 11 buys and two sel ls. no news on the watchmakers which
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is interesting. matt: apple watch, watch suppliers and semiconductors.
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cashone minute to go until equities start trading in your. a slightly softer opening this morning. not big moves, but nevertheless, after we have seen a number of sessions in which we have seen equities reasonably well bid, we are starting to reach the limit of that momentum joy the ftse looks like it will come off the worst, down by around .3%. we will leave it to the market makers. matt. sdlc, aam looking at function you can run on any equity. it shows you suppliers in the left-hand column and customers in the right. i filtered it down to rest and european companies and ordered
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them in terms of the revenue from apple. you see dialog semiconductor gets 74% of its revenue from apple. imagination technology gets five. what's these companies obviously closely guy:. let us take a look at the numbers. it looks as anticipated. a softer opening your. we are trading down the 74 level. 7388 is where we are trading. we are expecting similar moves cac, thecap -- for the dax. we have also got data crossing the bloomberg your area, increasing .4 versus the prior quarter. there is the market open as anticipated.
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.3% this morning. let us find out what else is going on and find out the details. nejra: the european equity markets pulling back. the asian equity session cap dissolve in positive -- kept itself in positive territory. a couple of interesting threads on how long that can carry on in agree markets. we have the hedge fund founder saying the correction could come merrill lynch found they have seen a big surge in the number of investors taking out protections against the downside move in global equity markets. that is something to bear in mind as we open up this equity market session. we are in positive territory, it seems. moving to theties downside. let us talk about where we are on the fixed-income story
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because this is the opening of the bond market and data, really important. we have the 10 year government on this chart for you. you can see the move in the month of june to do with the speech that mark carney made. then we see the spike at the far side of that chart, with the data we had gone out yesterday. the inflation data at the core. higher than the market had anticipated. lots of things on the move. we have the wage data coming through, the other part of the story when it comes to the squeeze on the u.k. consumer. we have the wages data later on this morning. matt and i talked about this during daybreak. .his is to do with bitcoin this shows the volatility in bitcoin, btv 2485, if you want to pull it up on your bloomberg. the volatility of bitcoin versus that of the vix -- if you're
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looking for volatility. may be bitcoin could be the way to go. he would fire anyone caught trading it. another was saying it would be shorecult to go bitcoin. anna: let us -- guy: let us turn to the mov screen. morning.ofter this there is a no doubt on the media center this morning, the macquarie note. is being dragged out as much as it is this morning. booker is off a bit. pr zero. -- piagio. is a company trading despite decent top line.
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they delivered a top line of plus tall percent in currency. the market was only expecting around 10%. it did pretty well on the back of that. i want to turn our attention to some charts and talk a little bit about where we go from here in terms of the fed's expectations and how much the market is priced in. we are going to doubt about what is happening in the fed and with the bank of england. it used to be on the monetary policy committee. morning. the market is priced out. you can see it on this here. this is the fed policy rate 2020.d by the ois in the market has an pricing lower and lower and lower in terms of where they expect the fed to go. have we reached the limits of this now, do you think? willem: the market often has it
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wrong. we are not just thinking to a mandate. we talk financial stability as well, and there is a financial stability argument for hiking the united states. to discourage that alone, i think a hike would be warranted. of see the undershooting inflation, which is probably coming to an end. anna: the fed used to be -- guy: the fed used to be keen on telegraphing his decisions to the market and making clear to was theet that this direction of travel. i sense that that maybe has changed in the fed is prepared to introduce to weigh risk into the story and to let the market catch up very quickly. allem: i think there is delivery attempt to use
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constructive ambiguity to keep the markets on their toes. there has to be much less forward guidance and quite a bit of ford misguidance recently partly because the fed did so. guy: matt miller? matt: one of the most important reasons we watch this, obviously, is because of its effect on currencies. i have a chart that shows the dollar, the spot price in blue, bearishulators positions in white. speculate is very -- speculators are the bearish. do you expect us to see a scrap back or can everyone stay on one side of this bearish dollar trade for longer? my record in predicting a move in exchange rates is as
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good as a random number generator. this is probably overdone at the moment. i would expect that the fundamentals warrent a less weak dollar. positioning is so extreme. positioning is so one way against the dollar. does it feel incredibly asymmetric at the moment in terms of the way the world is looking at the u.s.? willem: yes, i find it hard to rationalize this kind of extreme positioning. it's are treating cells to overshoot, followed by a massive correction, can probably see something like that at some point. guy: we have jean-claude juncker on his feet. he is delivering a state of the it,n, i guess you can call
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for the european union. let us take a listen to what the commission president is saying. >> thank you for that. ank the 27t to th leaders of our member states. agenda.come my in doing so, they chose unity. they chose to unite around common ground. slowlynce, we have been but surely gathering momentum. it helps that the economic outlook swung in our favor. we are in the fifth year of an reallyc recovery that reaches every single member state. union hasthe european
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rivaled that of the united states over the last two years. it now stands above 2% for the forn as a whole and at 2.2% the monetary -- unemployment is at a nine year low. jobs have beenn created during this mandate so far with 235 million people at high more people with employment in the european union than ever before. european union, european commission, cannot take the credit for this alone. 8 millionm sure had jobs been lost, we would have taken the blame. few institutions played their parts in helping this. we can take credit for our european investment, which has triggered 225 billion worth of
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investment so far. over 450,000 small firms and 270 projects. we can take credit for the fact that thanks to determined action, european banks once again have the capital firepower to lend to companies so they can create jobs. and we can take credit for having brought public deficit down from 6.6% to 1.6%. to intelligent application of the stability. we ask for fiscal discipline but are careful not to kill growth. this is in fact working very well despite some criticism. struck, it is
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finally bouncing back. our leaders, the parliament, and have put them back at our union, and together, we are putting the union back into our union. in the last year, we saw all 27 up to the capitol hill in rome. one by one, to renew their votes to each other into our union. believehis leads me to it is back. ,e have a window of opportunity but it will not stay open forever. let us make the most of the momentum, catch the wind in our sales. for this, we must do two things. first, cross it out last year. we have months in which progress
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can be made by parliament, counsel, and commission. we must use this time to finish our we started and deliver own positive agenda. secondly, we must track the direction for the future. -- "yearsain wrote from now, we will be more disappointed by the things we did not do then by those we did." mores a time to be a united, stronger, and democratic europe for 20 35. mr. president -- matt: so with us is willem buiter. let me ask you about jean-claude juncker taking credit, giving the european union credit for
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the success we have seen in the economy. what do you think about that? willem: it is a bit like taking credit for the sun rising. anre clearly has been improvement of economic performance after many years of underperformance relative to its position before the crisis. is recovery in the eurozone healthy up a moment. much less than was and has been in the united states. austerity.een it has been extremely accommodating, expansionary monetary policy which still continues. so that accounts for the recovery, and the commission had rather little to do with it. guy: is the european economic recovery self-sustaining? what a carry-on if we were to see that stimulus? being removed willem: i think that the
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monetary stimulus at the moment is pretty much at the end of its oomph. the main function of the asset thehase program is to keep proof free under control rather than to provide monetary stimulus to the eurozone as a whole. so i think that given the healthy growth for the rest of the world economy, therefore strong export markets, that this recovery has legs, even when tapering starts in earnest in the eurozone sometime next year. you think that the negative rates that we have here in europe and the amount of intervention that is somehow holding off deflation? we concern among many is if see that scaled back, obviously having nothing to do with junker, but only with draghi, we do not have
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sustainable inflation. we are not in a situation where we can keep it up. willem: i don't think we are getting much a support at this moment from monetary policy anymore, so i do not see the draw of what additional stimulus you're putting in will have a marked negative affect. closing.t gap is underlying inflation is creeping up. if you do not start taking monetary stimulus off now, then when will you? guy: economy itself is being driven by a bunch of factors and the story o is one of keeping personal spreads in. this is bunds. would you expect therefore for this to start to widen out here? once they stop, the anticipation of it stopping sometime towards the end of next year probably, i would expect it
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to widen, yes. don't know. he saw what happened in portugal when they 2016 temporarily withdrew their support. so maybe, that is a benchmark. matt: is the strength of the euro going to be a problem, do willem?k, we have gotten up around 120. we have not really seen bankruptcies increase. we still see growth. how much further, maybe, can we go? willem: the strength of the euro is not being greeted by the exporting and competing sectors in the eurozone. is aof it i think reflection, a mere image of the extraordinary weakness of the u.s. dollar. i do not expect to see much more strengthening unless there are very unexpected developments,
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but europe can live with this value of the effective exchange rate. i think the recovery will continue despite it. guy: stick around. plenty more to discuss. willem buiter. we will talk about ways growth, with u.k. on appointment data due later. figuresscuss what the mean for the bank of england. the market after the cpi data yesterday started to price in on an earlier hike. is that justified at this point in time? that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." the about 20 minutes into session, we are down across the board. let us get the bloomberg business flash with sebastian salek. sebastian: toshiba has signed an understanding on the sale of its memory chip business. the conglomerate says it aims to reach definitive agreement by the end of the month. the process has faced resistance from western digital, which has argued it has rights for any deal for arbitration in the u.s.. they worked out a deal with almost all the senior lenders to inject $1 billion of new money into the company. lenders will extend the maturity
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on $5.7 billion in debt with no payments due until 2020. the offshore driller controlled by him must get permission to sign the lender proposal. richemont has beat analyst estimates. said revenueit increased 12%. that is the fastest five-month sales growth since 2012. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy. us talk about the we get the wage data which comes out at 9:30 london time. yesterday is higher than expected inflation. the pound at a one-year high. for whatpectations mark carney will do tomorrow for the bank of england meeting. still with us on set. if you had a seat at the table,
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would you vote for a hike? willem: who knows. not at this point. domestically generated inflation, which pressure and inflation expectations. if there is no life in these, you do not vote for a hike. the fact that it came out at 2.9% and everyone expected 2.8% is the tiniest of deals. is likely as a result of net migration flows in the u.k. as a result of the anticipation of the end of free movement. is there going to be a sudden tightening of the labor market? that, i would be watching closely. guy: you studied the net migration data very carefully. willem: indeed. that could be the negative supply shock that could force the bank of england to raise rates. guy: what will it take to close this gap here? this is a chart we produced u.k. unemployment.
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i inverted that. this is the wage data. they used to track each other reasonably consistently. do you expect that gap will close anytime soon? seems to be aere lot more effective slack in the than the official data on capitalization and unemployment seems to suggest. that is not indefinitely and infinitely so, but for the moment, i see no evidence that it is showing a pulse. matt: i was in frankfurt show, thefor the auto world's biggest auto show, and i was talking to the ceo of and they recently bought vauxhall, so they have a big interest in the
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u.k. as well. he said he is getting no answers from brussels or the u.k., not hearing anything that is helping it make decisions as far as is concerned, and as a result, decisions are basically paralyzed. is this going to be the case for a lot of big companies and really be bad for the u.k. economy? is the statement that uncertainty deters capital expenditure. yes, until the smoke clears, there are no terms of the brexit deal for divorce any child custody. -- and for the child custody. reluctance of having to commit and make decisions that are hard to matt: reverse.
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if we had a transitory period as far as trade was concerned post-brexit negotiations for two or three years, as many suggested, is that going to continue the uncertainty? would it be more helpful to get a trade deal done regardless of how strong it is? willem: no, i do not think so. if there were to be an agreement on a transition period that there is goodwill and common at then both sides -- moment, it is not clear that there is on either side. it would help if there was for a significant transition period. that would be terrible to allow businesses to adjust and prepare for the new regime. guy: has permanent damage been done to the u.k. economy already? willem: nothing is permanent, right? except death and taxes.
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ex would havecap been stronger and growth today would have been stronger without it. you see the reversal in the migration. that is damaging. i think there has been minor aggregatee both to supply, labor supply mainly, and demand. the real pain is still to come. guy: and the drag of that is what? how long does that drag on for? willem: you cannot really tell. my best guess is potential output for the for seeable .3% to .4% be close, lower. on then of course, depending what the deal actually is, you
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could either bounce back in investment or not a big hit. further depreciation of the currency. all that is up to the negotiators. you willem poynter, thank very much indeed for your time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jean-claudeng back, juncker says the recovery is underway on the continent and lays out his vision for a post-brexit europe, but can the president of the commission claim credit for this success? and carney's conundrum. with wage data out this morning and a renewed inflation pick up in the u k, is it time to hike? the former board member and chief economist william brighter says no. buiter we will look at last night news from apple and see if it justifies the stocks 40% rise so far this year to date your good
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morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am matt miller in berlin alongside guy johnson at bloomberg european headquarters in london. look at us take a exactly where we sit this morning. the ftse 100 under a little bit more pressure than its peer group to we are factoring a bit of the pound story and the mining stocks under a little bit of pressure, so we are treating back at the 74 level. 7354 is where we are trading. by and large, in terms of the isns we have seen, europe marking time. we did see an asian session was in some ways is rearview mirror stuff. managing to keep its head above ater, but europe now starting new trading day. looks like we will see some softness. we'll see that repeated later on over in the united states. matt, that us about what is going on in the oil market. that is the story since we saw hurricane harvey making landfall in the united dates.
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wti holding gains that $48 per barrel after opec said it is looking to discuss prolonging its outlook further into next year. russians certainly keen for that to continue in q1. they feel the stability is useful for them. the u.s. energy markets continue to recover slowly off the harvey and irma. it is a week long deep dive into the electric future, a shift towards electric power and commodities. rogers is the ceo of euro and have. they ship the oil around the world that feeds into the combustion engines that we use. good morning, patrick. is it significantly different from what it is today? always have a horizon risk around the concern that there is going to be a peak demand story. and our view is of course that we probably have to work through
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primarily, we are in the sailing business. we have to look at whether we would move into different sectors and when and what the timing would be of that. it will be used substantially for a number of years after the 20 year horizon. it will still be used in large volumes. it will be a viable business. how does the tragedy we see playing out in the u.s., in houston, and in florida, harvey, and in irma affect the shipping business globally. paddy: there has been a short-term impact around ships moving in and out of the u.s. gulf, which is a critical area for refining half of the u.s.'s refining capacities on that coast. we know the number of the refineries own closed. adon't think there has been
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significant amount of damage done to the refineries themselves. buyingas been some panic so texas is short of oil. i had to go to two or three different pump stations last week simply because people panic bought. arear as the ships concerned, there was a short-term spike in product carrier rates as people thought it would be necessary to import gasoline to deal with the outages from the refineries on the gulf coast. i don't think this will have long-term consequences. a ship was effectively restricted to stay import simply because of the level of silt that had been pushed into the waterway and the fact the water level was very high and we had to go out under a bridge. we were stuck for one week, waiting for everything to subside and the river to be dredged. guy: you talk about the fact there will be demand. using the stuff you're putting into the tanks will be different going forward from here? people are going to be trying to iferstand what they think -- you are not trading gasoline, you are trading something else. does the product change?
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paddy: we can see, obviously, the car transportation accounts for 20% to 25% of the market. that will be extremely important all the way through the next years. in 2020, there will be new regulations on the content of the fuels we burn, and that will have an impact on oil trades. there is going to be a real search for the right lens of oil for the old refineries to make sure they don't have too much sulfur in their products and for the more modern refineries come a real margin to be made on taking heavier oils and cracking them successfully. matt: you do not expect -- hours at the frankfurt auto show and it seems like every automaker wanted to tell the billions of euros it is investing in electric vehicles. we hear that internal combustion engines will be banned in a lot of countries over the next 13 or 23 years. you do not expect a significant
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drop in the volume of oil and gasoline used and shipped around the world? want to beuld not at all complacent. electric vehicles are very much but talk at the moment. 1/5us not forget, they are -- .5% of the global carpark. they grow from a very low base. substantially on the back of subsidies of government on acquisitions or the waiver of certain import taxes. the best example of this would be where they had the system. they have free parking or freely accessible parking for electric vehicles. what happens is you have a huge sale of electric vehicles in norway and what do they do? they are used for shopping. when the norwegian wants to go away at the weekend, he takes his eight seater suv and the gasoline demand is not falling as a result of the increase in
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electric vehicles. we have a lot of electric vehicles that are hybrids, ly heavy. over we don't know how much time they spend in fuel. guy: they may end up using the combustion engine and as a result use higher amounts. maybe minority regions want to take all those things. coming out later on, and what they have been doing is they have been progressively revising lower what they think the demand story is going to look like. note over thea last few days thing that does not fit with what they see in terms of the economic story. what are you seeing in terms of moving this stuff around, in terms of the demand out there? paddy: they set projections and revised during the year. it seems bizarre at first, but they revise after the year as
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well. the idea of revision is not something that is new, and the city researchers are going to have a completely different view of this because they are trying to adjust and precisely price oil value, whereas the iea is a risk management organization. investing,lling or where are we getting oil in five years time? there is a natural inclination to say stocks are coming down and demand is going to be threatening. what we have seen is plenty of good demand. we saw the opec cut from a high base at the end of last year, and it is demand dealing with inventory. we are expecting inventories to come down on the back of the fact we are shipping a lot of oil. we are not making any money. come back at the us again. we will continue to update what is happening in the shipping market. patrick rogers, ceo of urine out. euronav.-- of
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price? political is she putting this up as a negotiating tool? we will discuss all of next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: this is the european open.
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c at a first word news update. sebastian: apple has unveiled its $999 iphone which features augmented reality and facial recognition technology. the iphone 10 is the most expensive phone ever heard it was one of three new models ceo tim cook showed off at the headquarters. it rolled out an updated apple watch and apple tv set-top box that supports high-definition video. visit chinaump will in november as tensions flare on the korean peninsula according to a person familiar with the plan. trump is expected to attend the asia-pacific association of southeast asian nations summit in vietnam and the philippines in november. white house officials declined to comment. the president posted three democratic senators at the white house dinner as he attempts to win their support for a test overhaul bill that will be written by republican leaders.
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indiana are the only three democratic senators who have not signed on a list of conditions to supporting tax legislation. the brexit negotiator is postponed met suite's scheduled round of divorce talks by one week. able meet in brussels but will gather on september 25. theresa may is planning a public speech on her latest strategy. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalist's analysts in more than 120 countries. sebastian, thank you very much. wolfgang schaeuble is expected to be offered another term as german finance minister if an alarm or go with the election in 11 days time. according to four people
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familiar with the matter, charlotte had signaled an interest in keeping the post, and merkel would be willing to pay a price to keep him in the role. it points to a coalition government which will require compromises on cabinet posts. joining us now is the senior director of the german marshall fund of the united dates in berlin. thesure to have you in studio. let me ask first of all how likely it is we get a coalition. when i first read the story, i thought "what if we get a coalition with the ftp?" they will want the finance minister position, won't they not? joerg: it depends on their election results. at the moment, such a coalition is rather less likely because the dynamics for both parties have been such that they have been stagnant if not fighting in the polls. in themoment, ratings polls suggests no majority for such a coalition. they still have to add a couple of percentage points each to make it possible. if that was going to happen, we would have that discussion. matt: right now, we see the
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party pulling at less than 40% and the greens and the stp pulling at less than 10%. it is conceivable we could have a jamaica coalition, although the stp and the greens. ci try seenything -- greens do not eye-to-eye at the moment. joerg: that is the scenario that is most likely, judging from the polls. in all fairness, there has been a coalition that has been working fairly well over the last four years, whatever the more assertive rhetoric we see during the campaign, but at the moment, i would rather put my bets on the continued grand coalition than any other option that is out there. guy: wouldn't that raise the possibility the afd could end up being the official opposition if it comes third? will, iney certainly
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rhetoric. they will be it very loud group in parliament. they will be opposed to gurney to pretty much anything the other parties will come forward with. they will be a loud opposition. will they be constructive? most certainly not. all the other parties have basically rejected any cooperation with the afd, which obviously reduces their all to role to that of a barking group in parliament rather than a constructive group to work with us. guy: why would martin schulz go into a grand coalition again? it has been disastrous for his party. we have seen it in many parts of europe that once you go into these coalitions with a dominant leader, you end up in a very difficult position. why on earth would he put his party through that again? would he in anyway hope to be looking further down the road and saying we did not win this one, but we can win the next one? how would he be able to go to his supporters and say that?
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joerg: i could very well imagine that there would be an argument theging that runs along lines of responsibility. assume that the afd really comes in at a strong result, plus a relatively strong results for the far left party. in this situation, i could imagine that you have a conversation that talks about responsibility in the face of a polarized debate in the country. obviously, a responsibility for europe. i could very well imagine that on such a basis, a grand correlation could be continued coalition could be continued and the party basis could agree to such a coalition again. matt: i wanted to ask about something little bit different. to the extent the afd has not been able to really shake things up that much in this election, it seems erdogan has been able to. turkey's president has asked germans not to vote for this
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cdu orr the greens -- the the greens. does he actually have an effect? people of turkish dissent in this country -- does he have an effect on the election results? i do think he does. it may be a minor effect, but he certainly does. one is after many weeks of the campaign basically searching for a central topic, it seems that finally, with turkey, such a central topic has emerged. obviously something where, especially the social democrats run a huge risk because the turkish population their children, they have traditionally been voters for the social democrats. in this spot with turkey -- [crosstalk] joerg: a very productive role if you will, --
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matt: i think something like 3 million people of turkish dissent here in germany voting. where will they cast their votes? they are not going to vote for gabrielle's party as the spd. they had been told by erdogan not to vote for the greens. they are not going to vote for the afd certainly or the left. joerg: in all likelihood i was say that they have -- those who really heed that call by president erdogan will probably abstain and drop out of german politics, as it were, which would be a shame. this would count as -- counter some of the immigration effort that has been going on in this country, however unsuccessful. i think it is the social democrats that would suffer from this accidents. matt: how would -- from this abstinence.
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matt: how many turkish germans are really listening to her to erdogan? there is a relatively strong participation amongst the turkish community. ais would certainly shave off point or two. especially of the spd result or the overall turnout. matt: thanks so much for your time. i really appreciate you coming in. forbrig. ofie dimon takes a bite out bitcoin. why jpmorgan's ceo said he would fire any trader betting on the cryptocurrency. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open." we are looking at jean-claude juncker, president of the commission, delivering his state of the european union address right now. the europeans do it in the morning. the americans do it at night.
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some of the headlines coming across our very interesting. younger saying the euro area has to have a european monetary fund . also that the euro area must get a minister of economy and finance. this is something that actually have become less and less controversial over the past few weeks and months. the minister of finance position is not the same as having shared bt, and he has not voiced any support for that in this speech that far. if you take a look at live here, you can go ahead and follow his speech. just type in live on your bloomberg. you can type tv . there is a number of ways to get to it. live is one of the best ways to get directly there. guy: let us talk about bitcoin, matt, one of your favorite subject. jpmorgan's ceo said he would fire any employee trading bitcoin for being "stupid." he also said it would not end well for the cryptocurrency. >> you cannot have a business where people can invent a currency out of thin air and think that people who are buying it are really smart. it is worse than -- it will not end well. and now, bitcoin slipped
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then recovered some ground before falling again. now, edwardn robinson. this was the response. i would be surprised if jamie dimon. nobody at jpmorgan was involved in this. edward: yes, that would be remarkable. he did point out his own daughter invested in bitcoin. with a trading floor the size of jpmorgan's -- traders more than a few in the last couple years. matt: i just want to point out that all fiat currencies are invented out of thin air, so there is that, right? there is a market, there is volatility. you can make money on this. sure, it is an asset that can go to zero, but so is options. do you think he was being flippant? edward: maybe a touch flippant.
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i think there is a lot of signs that the cryptocurrency market is headed for maybe not a crash, but at least a major correction. we have china cracking down on initial point offerings, which i went startups invent their own coins to fund their development and then sell them to the public. jamie seemed to zero in on initial point offerings on particularly crazy, that you can invent these coins out of thin air. there is that. i think there is the price. you have seen bitcoin multiply sixfold in the last 12 months. etheruem is up this year. that seems to scream bubble. edward, thank you very much indeed. edward robinson. remember, he was not down on ball change. that was a whole different story.. up next, it" is bloomberg "surveillance francine lacqua joined by tom
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keene. matt miller and i are off to bloomberg radio with the bloomberg team live on london dab digital. plenty coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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levels. valuablee world's most company. tim cook calls it the future. ahead of ubs investment, there could be trouble ahead. ,> some people might say great i would love to go to frankfurt. others might say, no way. francine:


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