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tv   Charlie Rose  Bloomberg  September 19, 2017 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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♪announcer from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." year's annual united nations general assembly will begin tuesday. this year's theme is focusing on people, striving for peace in a decent life for all on a sustainable planet. president will address the organization tuesday morning in a speech that will likely focus on north korea and iran. other key issues include climate change, peacekeeping, refugees, and global health.joining me is nicholas burns of harvard's kennedy school, and john micklethwait, bloomberg's
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editor-in-chief. president trump has a long road ahead. his administration is under investigation by a special counsel in congress. he doesn't have the of majority of the american people with him.congress has had to reassert itself against executive privilege. they voted for russia sanctions. they are grabbing some power from president trump. and he arrives where the big issues this week are the north korea nuclear problem, climate change, and of course, the iran nuclear deal. on two out of the three, the president has imposed self-exile. he has taken position at variance on climate and iran from every otherworldly year. -- world leader. charlie: h.r. mcmaster was saying they were thinking about this, and they don't have to leave here they are sending a signal maybe they are willing to on paris.other ideas
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with respect to iran, i'm hearing there are more stories they may not want to get out of the deal. i agree with nick about the idea he's having a rough time in washington. it may conceivably be in his .ind coming for four days. he's coming to a place he previously derived -- he seems to be singing something about israel about iran, things that he may not allowed sanctions to stop the current version of the deal. that is one side of it. the other side is that it is very difficult. europeans are unlikely to go with him as he goes against iran.
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he is in awkward spot on this. charlie: how is america's reputation around the world today? you are a former death -- diplomat. >> difficult. a pulse says our popularity and credibility are dramatically reduced, except in places like israel, where president trump has been well regarded. reallysident has not signaled to the rest of the whether he will play the world that truman and other presidents have played. leader of the nato alliance, protector of the european union. he spent a lot of time being critical of alliance governments.
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the world is not accustomed to american leaders being tough on allies and embracing autocratic governments all the time. that juxtaposition has been jarring. i hope heeds to do, sees an adaptive administration now that general kelly is there, he needs to adapt a leadership style to embrace allies and stand with merkel, who we think will be back, to fortify the nato base. to be successful against north toea and islamic state, participate in big negotiations over the future of syria and iraq, we have to have a strong base. we don't have that right now. >> it is interesting, because that is right, he shows no signs of being able to do that, but he is also president who is suddenly capable, out of nowhere, of turning around and working with democrats.
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if you don't seem to believe in very much, he has the advantage to swivel. the other consistency has been america first, and that is what makes it difficult with allies. you can see already in the reception the europeans are giving, people are cross with trump. they are not willing to cast him a break at the moment. charlie: you wonder whether america will be there when you need them, don't you? isn't that the point? >> i think that is the problem. when you go into brussels in your first big meeting as president trump date and castigate allies, and castigate whether we want to be chart -- part of this aligns, it is a jarring departure. charlie: angela merkel said we have to act as if we are on our own. she did. president trump is right about one thing, that europeans need to be more self-sufficient on defense. they need to spend more on national defense.
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i think he's right to challenge them, but the way he has done it has not been productive, either with west europeans or the south koreans. i think he has done better with xi jinping. they have developed some way to talk to each other on the phone, now that they have met a couple of times, and we will need china. charlie: they were in favor of the sanctions. did they not support the sanctions must recently? >> one of them>>, but the previous ones they were more dodgy. charlie: they seemed to want to send some signal to the north koreans. >> with the europeans, they don't feel as if there is any pressure on them to help trump out. that is why iran is interesting. this is a classic deal where if you did want to do something with iran, you would perhaps escalate pressure on them, you would start talking about maybe, pushing the deal
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the thing that worries people is -- obama deal is meant to 10, 12 years away. in order to get that degree of agreement about what to do about iran, you need the europeans onside first. you need the british at a minimum to be sympathetic, and then maybe you reach out to other people. this is why all the problems of the previous rhetoric come back to haunt you. it's not impossible, but it is hard. france, whaton of will be expected of him? >> there is a relationship where president trump has invested. he made a trip on bastille day. charlie: the french invited him, they suggested they wanted something. >> yes. macron defeated marine le pen and the right populists, but
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germans need a strong counterpart to solidify the eu. if merkel returns and macron can get labor reforms which is currently at issue,, passed by the french parliament, that will help him politically and economically. because france has military power, they are very helpful to us in syria, they are involved against the islamic state, the president admires that. he tends to judge countries on whether or not they are with you militarily rather than politically. macron and trump are off to a good start, and we should want to see that develop. charlie: does populism still have momentum? >> yes. it varies. charlie: trump added to the idea that populism is on the march. >> even now in the numbers, he still has a bedrock of support of people who are frustrated. we can see that in britain with
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what happened with boris johnson. he is out trying to rally the conservative, main anti-eu conservatives. the brexit thing has to go through quickly, don't mess around, theresa may isn't doing enough. he denies he is saying that, but that is the message he is sending. charlie: china. we all saw xi jinping, and speak for a world in which a global purview is appropriate. does that suggest china is prepared to exercise more influence in the world and has the appetite for exercising more influence in the world, and wants to see the world turn to china in reflection of its increased power in the world? >> it was highly ironic and a little hypocritical for xi jinping to say, "i am the guardian of globalization," when they are one of the most protectionist nations on earth.
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but the chinese are not intend on global domination. they want a relationship with the u.s. on big issues like climate change, i think xi jinping appreciates it. much. -- a very much. they know they need a good relationship with our government and private sector to stabilize the global economy. we are partners with china, but we are also competitors, and we are beginning to see that in east asia because the chinese are pushing out against five other countries -- is one point,ere there is that region. you have this vacuum, then suddenly xi jinping appears. but on the whole, their priority is that region and what they can do their. there are certain ways in which being -- being a more global power helps them. the main thing seems to be they
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want reforms to work at home, and we need time to do that. charlie: i'm interested in what you both my think. i was at a conference this weekend in which a very important american made this statement. is thing that we need to do spend a lot more time focusing on our relationship with india, that is the crucial american relationship to pay attention to. >> i think that person is absolutely right. here you have the world's largest democracy, soon to be the world largest population. it is a rule of law society. india wants a strategic military partnership. not alliance, but a partnership with the u.s. and japan. it understands it needs weight, and japan and the u.s. can give it weight. and yet more military exercises per year with the u.s. in the air and sea than almost anyone else.
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is a change, because most of india's support has been russia. inhave no bipartisanship washington except on india. it is very important for us. charlie: and yet if a country having border disputes with china. >> they have a huge, long border that they still dispute. indian politicians can still be savage towards journalists who draw the map in the wrong way. you get a straightforward power game happening again. the world's most populous country at the moment of against the world's second most, about to be the most. then you have japan on the other side and all the ingredients of, power politics pushing, with the
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, veryans sitting outside nervous about what happens in china. it is one of those long-term relationship management things which kissinger with them out -- promote a huge amount of time to. modi different? >> he is from what india has had before. he has a good side with economic reform, but the bad side is he is very nationalistic. the problem around that region is there so many nationalistic emotions. it's all about what is taught in textbooks in the school, not just about where the lines on the maps are, but what the chinese and japanese did at different times in history. it is a nasty history, which people keep pushing forwards and backwards to each other. if you change that, it makes a big difference. charlie: beyond the obvious
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sension from north korea' dramatic attempt to exercise and show off its military might and how far it is in developing nuclear weapons that can sit on what are the tension places under consideration this week? clearly, another is qatar and saudi arabia and the emirates. explain that one. areasre are four or five under dispute with leaders. the iran nuclear deal -- charlie: and the conflict with the saudi's and the arab states. >> the big rivalry between the shia and sunni, we seeing it play out in yemen and syria and iraq. where president trump has been right is to say that there has
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to be a coalition formed. israel, moderate arab states, sunni states, and the u.s. to contain what the ring is can do. iranians and want -- want to establish a continuous line of support from tehran, to baghdad, damascus, to beirut. they want to supply hezbollah and hamas with weapons. if the president comes into the u.n. and says we have a problem with unconstrained weapons, he will get support. if he says i will support the nuclear deal, but i will be louder and more vibrant against irani and behavior, you can do both. >> you can and should do both,
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and i think he will get support from democrats in congress. people will support him on the tougher line against iran. >> the division between those two things, the deal, which is explicitly about -- donald trump, perhaps correctly, is trying to broaden it, saying there are other unacceptable things iranians are trying to do. that is different -- difficult, he is hard for him to do, must be a will get allies to trust him. is.'s where the difficulty charlie: is rex tillerson a different secretary of state because he doesn't have stayed experience? aidesprimarily relying on he has had before. -- he knew the world, he has traveled the world
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leading exxon mobil. the problem is that he is not trusting the foreign service. he is not investing in them. he doesn't appear to be connected to the leadership. career democrats and -- diplomats and people with experience, he is proposing a 31% budget cut which would decimate the state department. the republican congress is even saying, we will not be party to weakening diplomacy. he has to adapt. morale is very low. these are career people. they are not political. they will work as hard for president trump as president obama if you give them a chance, but it is not happening. charlie: if you are a foreign leader and looking to the u.s., you see foreign -- use the conflict between the president
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and the national security apparatus, and then you see conflict between him and state, you wonder how america will speak for itself. the president says he speaks for america, but diplomats know that there are many ways you measure what a country stands for. >> and one of the problems we have had on north korea is that the president has been all fury and turmoil, but matches has been saying we are on a diplomatic track. we don't want to overthrow, but we don't want you to have nuclear weapons. negotiation is a different message. if you are kim jong-un, he's never been part of the world, you don't understand americans. it's a real problem in diplomacy. has so much hard power that you forget how useful the soft power has been at different times.
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at different times, america has managed putting pressure on other areas in the world, not through force. what is happening under tillerson is whether that always good,h was and to some extent camouflaged by hard power, whether that is still there. some people say he is playing a clever long game, and ultimately this will come through, but with every weekend month, it gets harder. they need to come up with something he has done. this president has criticized the u.n. general. new secretary can you make a case for the relevance of the united nations? the u.n. is not as efficient as they could be. it is a bloated urography --
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bureaucracy. but it is the only alliance we have where the most important countries come under one roof. we are the largest contributor. i think the president, at the first meeting, he surprised people. he did not come with a tough message. he urged reform, but did not say he would walk away. i think that was positive. >> out of all the things trump went for were dismissed as useless, the u.n. was one of them, but it is still the parliament of hang out with a lot of world leaders, this is the place to come. ,ou get a lot of bureaucracy but if you are donald trump trying to re-energize your presidency, trying to do
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something to begin to give you more access, the u.n. is useful. charlie: and it should be said, beyond nationstate issues we have tremendous, problems that cross boundaries, whether it is climate, refugees, issues of human slavery, and a lot of difficult problems. him -- forumne for there is. -- thes that you and u.n. that put together the paris agreement, that is working on refugees. this is the place to go. charlie: we will be right back. stay with us. ♪
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♪ here.e: ray dalio is he is the founder, chairman, and co-chief investment officer of bridgewater associates. he created the firm in 1975 out of his apartment. today, it is the largest hedge fund in the world with assets around $160 billion. fortune magazine called bridgewater the fifth most important private company in the u.s. its success is anchored in unconventional culture which emphasizes values like radical transparency and truth. in dalio expands on those
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"principles: life and work." i am pleased to have you with us. tell me the motivating reason to put this together. why did you want to write this? met --elp others, to make them be more successful. i was originally reluctant to share these supposed. -- principles. charlie: you thought they lead to enormous achievement in the investment world, and therefore you didn't want competition? >> i don't like public attention. i would rather have private. of attention lot during the financial crisis. because we operated with different principles and had a unique culture, it became distorted. i put those principles we had at out on our website. they were downloaded 3.5 million times.
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i received a lot of thank you notes, because it helped people a lot. i accumulated more. now i'm at a stage in my life where i'm transitioning from what i call the second stage in my life, to the third stage. i think is when one is dependent on others and learns. second stage is when we are working and others are dependent on us. third stage is when they all do well without me and are without us. my objective is to help others be successful without me. so this is my year of transition, i would say from that stage, the second to the third stage. i don't want to put everything i had of value in that one book. it is a series of recipes, essentially. i also hope it will encourage other people to write principles. beennow how i have
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trying to get you to write down your is. principledwe have messages when something comes along, how do you handle that, and we are clear, i think that is important. charlie: i want to talk about your principles. let me do a little biography. born in queens. your father was a jazz musician. mom.r, stay-at-home you went to long island university, then harvard business school. you made a little bit of money in investors successfully on a small scale, but it gave you some great desire. ray: i got hooked on playing the game. charlie: the game was what? ray: the markets. caddying, 12, i was and the stock market was hot.
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the first company i bought was the only company i had ever heard of selling for less than five dollars a share. i figured i could buy more shares. that was a dumb strategy. what have been is the company was about to go bankrupt, and somebody acquired it, and it tripled. i got hooked on the markets. that began to be something that was a game, and it changed my way of thinking completely. it changed my way of thinking because in order to be successful in the markets, you have to have an independent view that is different from the consensus, because the consensus is built into the price. you are going to be wrong a lot. that began to influence my way of thinking. 1982?e: you were wrong in you bet that the market was going to go down, and the market started on a bull run.
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ray: one of the greatest ever. charlie: so you went broke? went broke, yeah. i anticipated that countries could not pay debts back to american banks. that happened. mexicost, 1982, defaulted. i thought it would cause an economic disaster. the stockhe bottom of market. i got a lot of attention. and i could not have been more wrong. i had to let everybody go. that i hadeople wonderful relationships with. they were my extended family. i was so broke i had to borrow 4000 -- $4000 from my dad to pay family bills. it was one of the most painful mistakes that ever happened to me in my turned
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out to be one of the greatest things happening in my life. that was because i went from .hinking that i knew, it to asking myself, how do i know that i'm right? the humility i needed to balance with my audacity. and it led to this ideal meritocratic way of operating. charlie: because of the lesson sure we ares make right and let's listen to some tough critics of our idea and let it prove its worth. ray: it started with me. charlie: and the world of challenge. ray: it started with me thinking, what can i do to be better? and in particular, i wanted this speak to the smartest people i could do disagreed with me to try to figure out what their perspective was.
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i wanted to balance risk and also take a look at history in a different way. the most important thing it gave me was the need to be among independent thinkers that disagree and to get the most out of that disagreement to develop the idea of a meritocratic way. ideas wentthe best out. i think one of the greatest tragedies of mankind, holding onto opinions that are wrong and being so attached to them and not putting them out there and stress testing them. it was essential. there are three things we have ando in order to have effective idea meritocracy. that has been key to our success. first, everybody has to put their honest thoughts on the table and speak frankly. that is what we do.
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-- use you have to be the art of thoughtful disagreement. enjoy disagreement. it doesn't mean it's conflict. it is an explanation of different points of view. the better ideas are those that come in one's head. a way of getting around disagreements. get past those disagreements and move on and find that acceptable? have a way of decision-making. in most decision-making, there's either the boss that makes a decision in a hierarchical way or you have a democracy in which everyone has equal vote. both of those are not the best. how do you know the bosses right? by being able to weigh each person's point of view based on their own -- charlie: based on past
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performance. ray: past performance, assessments of each other. test. someone has a certain amount of believability points on different expertise. question, isomic it a legal question? acquiring different attributes? someone might be a big picture thinker or be lousy at details. someone might be perfect at --ails through the office it the opposite. thinking.tocratic if you can have great collective decision-making and then write those decision making criteria down, cover those to algorithms that make computer decisions in parallel. >> that is the formula. not you and not one individual.
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a bit more about you and the company. you are a jerk and you don't know how much you are offending people buyer conduct. ray: i think it was 1993 and it was a small group. i don't want to hurt people's feelings. i don't want to do that. speak equally frankly with me. i was in a dilemma. can i be 100% straightforward with them? will that work? or will they not want me to do that? that dilemma made me think. that i should have conversations with them and ask, how do you want me to be with you? do you want to look that
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through? culture. we have a that began a process in which we said we should write down how we should agree with each other. gives a meritocratic process through that radical transparency. let me be clear. this is not for everybody. this is not for everybody. people encounter, one way or the other, some people wouldn't want it any other way. so we go through that process and that was an example. it is such a good example that i wouldn't have known that. and there are so many things in my life that i probably would have just in clueless two.
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in 2007 and 2008, everybody else was losing money money. made big time. was it the process that you believe in able you to make the right decisions and the right calls? because whatever idea you had, you wanted to test it in every possible way. concern for feelings and emotions. just the meritocracy of the idea , the investment idea that was controlling were you placed your funds. ray: it was a crazy view. what i mean is, it was a view nobody had. it was a bubble. it looked like enormous prosperity. how do i know i'm right? independentve that
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thinking so we can step aside , and know how to manage that successfully. i need independent thinkers that will stress test each other. charlie: are they in your firm or way beyond your firm? ray: wherever the smartest disagreement is. ♪
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charlie: then there is the case of greg jensen. all right? late 60's. it you make a decision about a person you work closely with. the right person for this next job. you made a mistake. ray: yep. have thiseaded you perfect process and come to the wrong conclusion? ray: that is the process. how failure is such an important part of the learning process. i don't know what the right decision is. to, frankly,ty almost in any case that i haven't done something before, i think there is a high probability am not going to do it right. when we started out, this will be a 10 year plan. i didn't know necessarily how to do that. we learned about different things. learned about mistakes that i
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made making the choice and , one personuch under those circumstances. because the business and grown up under me. i gave up something that was too big. of both management and investment. tooi gave something that is big. even was getting too big for me with experience. i gave it to greg and we went through that. and what we saw was there were disagreements as to what should be done and how to do it. that wehe great things saw is because we have this idea of a meritocratic system that we believed in, we can work ourselves through that even though we might have those differences. system fort have a getting pasture disagreements, you will have trouble. think about it like the presidential election. we have somebody that wins the
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popular election and another person wins the electoral college. if we didn't have rules that we respected about how to get pastor disagreements, we would have a civil war. rulese: if you don't have and i'm not going to accept this result, then you have a real problem and a real break down. has my rule of law is so important. rules, though, have be perceived as being fair. words, everyone says that's fair. to believe in what fact is and what truth is. ray: you may not know what true. you try to find your facts. different people even perceive the fact. the key is, how do you work yourself through a disagreement by believing the process is fair. this idea of a meritocratic
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process allowed us to get through it. they say that jerk and whatever and they would have had it. you can get past the disagreement. charlie: there was a committee that decided to, a committee that we heard? just like a jury? ray: there was a case. a group of 15 people, senior people. that's how it works. 15 senior people, management people. we all got together.
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they went through that and took a vote. everybody thought it was fair. that we would make a transition , working as chief investment officer's. management responsibilities would come back to me. and we went on to have eileen murray b co-ceos. i will always do the investment part. i love to play the game. i will, for the rest of my life, play the game. i never want to be dependent on it. the other people
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around me successful so i will do the game in a way where i'm making their success is paramount importance. in other words, to teach the man how to fish. it is just a misunderstanding. everything is on the record, and therefore there is no avoiding what will said because somewhere, somebody to the picture of it. ray: just so everybody understands, that is so everybody can see everything. ideaan't have an meritocracy -- if i don't let you see something, you can't have an opinion on it. in order to have an idea this isn't spying on people or anything like this, it's for the notion that anybody
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can see it firsthand. it is to have an idea meritocracy. and to do that, through radical ness, radical transparency. you can see anything. and you think this is what could be applied to almost all the big points. the big questions of our time. if we use this kind of rigorous process, we would come to a much better understanding of all the complex issue. withif we are stuck terrorism or whatever the issue is -- charlie: making decisions about investments. ray: the process is equally valid, right? let's put our thoughts on the
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table, know the art of thoughtful disagreement. so we can pull that together and get past those disagreements in an idea meritocratic kind of way. it is a personal relationship thing, too. would this apply to marriages as well? ray: it applies to any that you establish what your principles are and how you will deal with each other. you don't have to follow the idea meritocratic way. but there are two things i require from people in any relationship i have. that is to be reasonable and to be considerate. i will be very reasonable and i will be very considerate. thatw we will have to have thoughtful disagreement and ways of getting past that thoughtful disagreement regardless of relationships. that is a personal belief.
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that is what served me well. charlie: and also what has served you well as your curiosity. this sense of wanting to know things. and along the way, you have talked about this. the friendship of some extraordinary people. in charge of corruption, he's top level of americans is one of the most influential people in china. mind is in total pursuit of understanding how everything is connected. a kind of theory of everything. ray: i admire him. volcker, i admire many people because of the ability to go above things and to look down at the world as a reality machine.
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think, how does that reality machine work? everythinggnize happens over and over again. everything is another one of those. when you start to think about how does reality work, principles and so on. he thinks of human nature. it is basically almost that there are a limited number of personality types. there is a limited number of situations. in these things keep happening over and over again. it's almost like you can see the universal theory of reality. he looks at the world that way. emotionally carried
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away. that.dmire them for charlie: i assume you are in constant pursuit of greater understanding because the principles -- bad worried about appearing good. dad, making first-order of consequences. good, make your decisions based on consequences. you are constantly adding to the principles. you started with 10. now you have 11. ray: as i learn something, i get into the habit of taking the time and writing down what is my principle for dealing with that thing. i am constantly learning. it's the best habit and i recognize it for everybody. is happening,hing
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you are making the decision. and when you do that, you can also communicate it to others. been converted to algorithms. so we make those decisions with us. this is the type of thing that is the key to success to be able to thank, what are my rules? 's own another one comes along, i handle it well. charlie: is it the decision-making that you have been doing at bridgewater? ray: we have been doing this for five years. charlie: but you also have intelligence. ray: an algorithmic decision made. it is a language. an algorithm is just like writing.
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it specifies those criteria. you know the brain is 89 billion euros -- neurons. those are little computers. charlie: an interesting slip of the tongue from euros to neurons. ray: people in my business do that. they are programmed to, literally, that way. data comes in and that is how we make decisions. we take the criteria and we can specify those. we have those computers make decisions in parallel with us. it's like using the gps. where does instinct and hunch plan to this? ray: it is critical. it is the subconscious.
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the brain is much older. and we can program many of the things. it is in our subconscious. , they,.ng up creativity. it comes from relaxation. it has been invaluable to me because it helps do that. creativity.on, that let that bubble up and you have to reconcile it with your logic. so in the subconscious creativity comes up and you replicate it with your logic, it is fabulous. but then you take what you've learned and you just do something with it. converting it to algorithms and realizing the computer can process a lot more information a
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lot quicker. it but you don't have to do that to have an idea meritocracy. i'm going to be clear. anybody in any relationship can have an idea meritocracy. charlie: where is the global economy? did a 30 minute video about how the economic chain works. there is productivity. we learn. the are two big cycles. the short-term debt cycle which we call the business cycle. about 10 years, maybe. it accumulates and you build a lot of obligations to the future.
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it is much difficult to measure, but i will not get into that too much. cycle in the part of the where the economy is not too hot, not too cold. it is worldwide, generally speaking. it's a good part of the cycle. we have an enormous number of liabilities. they are not just in the form of debts. there are also in the form of pension applications. there is a type of debt application. there is also the health care applications. that is changing. and that is a backdrop. we have two different economies. there is the economy which i will call to the bottom 60% and the top 40%. -- can make at the top 40%
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two different economies and two different worlds. it is the greatest since the 1935 to 1940 period. charlie: which he think is the most interesting comparable period. ray: yes, that's right. the top 1/10 of 1% has a net worth that is equal to the bottom 90% combined. if you look at the economy of the bottom 60% and say, what is that economy look like? it is a miserable economy and a miserable set of circumstances. death rates are rising. suicides, opiates, so on. it is a miserable economy. period analogous to that period, which is a gap. there are two economies and we need to deal with that other e
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economy. -- other economy. ♪
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♪ betty: president trump going on the attack at the u.n., saying america may have to totally destroy north korea. >> the dollar fell in treasuries weekend as the president spoke. wall street remaining calm ahead of the fed. betty: at least 90 people have died in a powerful earthquake in mexico. it came on the anniversary of a shock that killed 5000. >> tony blair talks brexit with bloomberg.


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