tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg October 26, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
from bloomberg -- vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters, here are the top stories that we are following. adoptrepublicans narrowly a budget resolution, freeing up the release of a tax bill next wednesday. the success depends on the details of that framework. . busy day on wall street 71 equity 500 companies reporting earnings, so far mostly good. tobias levkovich is coming up right now. staying with earnings, twitter is trending again. shares are getting a boost after they beat sales estimates and added more monthly active users, showing some signs of life. let's get the roundup of what has been going on in the market. we had the massive ecb morning. julie: it is more earnings
driving the u.s. stock market as well as hopes for some kind of tax cut. those hopes sparking up again as we have the house passing the budget which in turn leads to higher hopes for a tax plan getting through. all the major averages are up. the russell 2000 of small caps is outperforming again. it is coming back to outperforming, up 4/10 of 1%. this is a small domestic dust and index for small, domestic orient -- an index for small, domestic oriented companies. here you have the s&p 500 versus the russell since the election. the russell had a big outperform its initially and sort of went sideways for a while, had another leg up in september and has gone sideways and is taking up relative to the s&p 500, the relative performance improving as we get this latest wave of
tax hopes. there is a deutsche bank index of highly taxed companies and low taxed companies. here is a ratio of the two and the red line goes back to the election. they bottomed out in august and september and now they are rising again. ofs is just another way making a proxy for what investors think will happen on the tax plan. earnings are a big seem so we have to get back to that and look at some of the big movers. here are some of the most heavily weighted. , it isont on the upside now a combined company as of august 31 before it splits into three and its preliminary third-quarter profit was ahead of estimate. a benefited from -- altria benefited. we have a tumble in shares of
company coming out saying its top sellers are not performing as well as expected, third-quarter trailing estimates in particular. those shares down. charter communications, a victim of cord cutting, the drop in cable tv customers with almost four times what analysts had estimated. mentioned,ulie just investors bracing for the busiest day of the earnings season. more than 70 companies opening their books today. so far the results have been robust. later today we will hear from .mazon, alphabet, and microsoft here to give us more insight into the relative sense of comfort in the market as well as what is ahead is tobias levkovich, chief u.s. equity
strategist at citigroup. great to have you with us. this time around as well as in the past quarters it seems investors are realizing the earnings estimates were a bit too low and the stock market is rallying again. how comfortable should we be with this? tobias: there are a couple things going on. earnings have been good, better than expected. estimates have been cut because of concerns around hurricanes and disruptions to business performance. companies have been very good, very efficient, and very careful on their cost side. one thing we are not seeing is a particular vision. they are not picking up their fourth quarter, next year's numbers a lot. they are almost being cringe worthy, cautiously optimistic is what we are seeing. that is, i would not say disappointing.
companies have not really done their budgets for 2018 yet. markets are partially concerned with earnings. or high tax stocks versus low tax stocks. when people think about high tax, low tax, utilities are generally domestic, high tax stocks that if they get a tax cut they have to give it back to the consumers because it is in the rate race. that distorts some of these high tax, low task baskets. energy is another area but it is usually oversee taxes, causing that distinction -- overseas taxes, causing that distinction. small caps are also very dollars sensitive so when the dollar rallied last year and the beginning of this year and then backed off, that is where small caps are having some issues. it is a lot more complex than saying earnings or taxes or these kind of discussions.
people have to get down to the nitty-gritty. out, moneyyou point is going into u.s. equities as much as bonds and international stocks. if we are getting these beats, why not? tobias: i think investors have been struggling with a lot of different things. they wonder about geopolitical events they cannot predict. the stock correlation was very low and then kim jong-un fires off missiles and everybody gets a little uncomfortable. we have a lot of investors who suffered through two severe downturns in the markets in into2002 and 2007/2008 2009. the markets have more than tripled off the bottom of 2009 and if i was not invested enough, am i going to come in now and it will be a problem? those are issues that are
restraining the enthusiasm, and they are worried about valuations. i am not a big fan of that example,because for your trades are at a lower multiple than the u.s.. 500 -- 24%of the s&p of europe is financials. tech stocks trade at higher multiples been financial stocks do, and that is part of the problem comparing one to the other. people who do that are doing what i would call very lazy analytics incorrectly. shery: we saw the s&p 500 futures slipping a little bit on headlines from politico that janet yellen was out of the fed chair race. how are you positioning yourself ahead of that announcement that could come any day? tobias: nine, nothing, zero. zero.e, nothing,
i do not play parlor games or make predictions. i think people are foolish and playing these games. vonnie: was the ecb a game changer today in the sense that it might've been a gentle exit but we are exiting now? tobias: we have been seeing it all around the world. it wasn't like the ecb was hiding this idea that once the economies are globally synchronized they will require constant medication. the debt was already pulling back earlier. the ecb saying, europe is doing better and we do not need to be administering all of this help. they will still be providing qe, but less of it. i see that as normal policy. that is what central banks do. they are there to come to the rescue when it is necessary and when it is no longer as necessary they should be pulling back. vonnie: given that we will have the fed taking out almost , $1her half trillion
trillion between two central banks on the market next year. tobias: the bond market has a big it best bigger problem. -- bigger problem. you bond yields go up enough to force a correction in either the economy or in the markets? banksk the major central are not trying to kill the economy. a have been very clear about the gradualist nature of this. -- they have been very clear about the gradualist nature of this. that should be very positive to economic trend ultimately. from a market pe basis, ultimately will have some impact but it is not like bond yields and stocks have been moving in tandem anyway. we look at the price-to-earnings of the equity market.
they thoroughly disconnected about nine years ago and yet people think they are wildly connected. it is stunning to me. i go back to my lazy analytics issue. a chartt hard to put up of price-to-earnings and priced to yield. shery: the two-year yield, 10 year yield fell more than 1.4%, 2.4%. this changing trend, does it reflect that the markets are not coming around into the fed projected rate path? tobias: i am not a fed watcher but people have been disappointed by the charts over the past few years, given that they have been overly optimistic and have been unable to deliver. have been tooons robust and their skepticism is as a result of that. even the discussion of, we are sitting at a 100 basis points if her and show of short-term and long-term rates, we worry about recession at 20 basis points,
not 100 basis points. even though there is a little less steepness in the curve, it is not threatening economic downturn. vonnie: that was tobias levkovich. let's check in on the first word news. mark: don't we love his conviction? the house narrowly passed a republican budget today have a significant boost to president trump's promised to cut taxes. that would increase the federal deficit one $.5 trillion over 10 years and the bill could pass the senate with just 50 votes and a tie-breaker from vice president pence, bypassing the need for democratic support. president trump will officially declare opioid abuse a public health emergency but will stop short of a controversial move for might have tapped funds hurricane recovery and flu epidemics. the death toll for opioid doses
-- overdoses could be set for another record year. allies in russia continued to "ave "fundamental differences regarding the ongoing issue in the ukraine. he spoke in brussels. >> improving the security situation in eastern ukraine remains the priority in order to move towards the full of limitation of the agreement. however, the situation remains fragile and violations of the cease-fire continue. nato allies also confronted russian representatives about discrepancies in reports of the scale and scope of a recent russian military exercise. russia said it mobilized fewer than 13,000 troops for the drills at some u.s. estimates suggest 40,000 took part. canyons --ce fired water cannons and gas for
protests. the do over for the election is not credible. in opposition areas did not open because of security concerns. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. us,y: as mark just told republicans are one step closer to tax overhaul as the house votes to adopt a budget resolution. we will have the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: welcome back. this is "bloomberg markets," i am shery ahn. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. republicans adopted a budget resolution, unlocking a process that will help the gop achieve their goal of cutting taxes by the end of the year. here with the latest is chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli on capitol hill. it may be was not a surprising development but it opens the door for kevin brady to come out with a tax plan. kevin: just within the last couple of minutes we are learning republicans in the house will unveil their official tax proposal on november 1. and then five days later they will take it up for a markup through the committee process, so they again, with the passage of this legit, are on pace -- this budget, are on pace for tax .elief i the end of the year
a handful of republicans voted against it over concerns regarding exemptions to the state and local tax deduction. most of those republicans coming from states like california and new york. despite those voting against this legend proposal, the budget was still able to pass -- budget proposal, the budget was still able to pass. how they will be able to pay for it remains to be seen. i have seen people like chairman brady, representative blackburn and others suggesting me that ratification is not on the table for some who may be floating it. take a listen to what representative chris collins from upstate new york told me about what will happen to republicans if they do not get this done by christmas. >> i think all of us know we need this done by before christmas or it will be devastating because we will have disappointed our base.
we disappointed them on health care. if we disappoint them on tax reform, they are quite likely in frustration to just not vote next november. kevin: the political drama unfolding earlier this week with jeff flake and bob corker seemingly having no impact on the house's ability to pass the budget with paul ryan saying in a press conference, joking that president trump will be on his overseas trip to asia when the republicans unveil their proposal. shery: a great interview with representative chris collins, but he comes from a state of high taxes like new york and that has been huge in terms of the salt deductions. we have heard from peter king that he does not see a prospect for a final tax bail -- bill by the end of the year so what is the feeling that this will get done? kevin: in terms of the coalition, the majority of the
republicans from the new york caucus voting against this budget because of their concerns over the state and local tax issue. they were still able to get it on board with some votes from democrats. the feeling right now at least is that despite the concerns from several republicans they were able to get this through. terms ofood news in those watching this, but if you mark your calendar for november 6, that will be the markup and all these grievances will be aired in a very public hearing. vonnie: november 6 being a monday. our thanks to bloomberg's kevin cirilli on capitol hill. shery: coming up, wall street is catching a break for now. s&p will shield u.s. brokerages from the impact of new european financial moves. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is "bloomberg markets." farm cane sec says accept payments from u.s. providers. the research pools that are coming into effect in january from mifid ii. benjamin j -- benjamin bayne joins us. -- bain joins us. ?hat happens after 30 months will it be written in a more permanent way? benjamin: i am sure wall street brokerages hope they get another get out of jail free card. the sec left the door open in terms of what they are likely to do once that two and a half years or so expires. kind of worth noting that this basically is what wall street brokerages have been pushing for for months in washington. they got the sec, wall street's
main regulator, to step in and tell them they are able to payments as will be required under new european rules for their european clients , and they will not have to register as investment advisors. if they had to take on that label, it would heap on a bunch of additional requirements that could be costly and they did not want to do that. there are getting a reprieve today and i'm sure a lot of the big brokerages are happy. what happens to an a half years from now? we do not know. vonnie: does this give the u.s. advantagempetitive over their european counterparts if they do not have to pay those fees, and potentially they can grab market share while europe is paying those fees? benjamin: in the u.s. you kind of have a situation where the pension funds, a lot of the clients, let's say, of these
brokerages have been arguing they want the system that their european counterparts are going to get. a lot of big asset managers with like to be able to pay separately for research and separately for trade execution services. argue that by having to bundle them in the u.s., which with today's move by the sec insurers will not happen for at least another two and a half years, they are at a disadvantage compared to european pension funds. we still have a situation where some investor advocates are calling for a system that is similar to what is happening in europe, but for now the sec is saying we do not want things to givingnow, and they are the big wall street brokerages a way that i do not have to open their business models because research is lucrative. it can be tied to trade execution and will be that way for some time. shery: the goal in europe was to give investors more transparency and you mention investor
advocates. they must not be happy. benjamin: they are not. one of the things that some groups have been arguing over the past couple of weeks is that if the sec were to step in and a limited what they have essentially done today to european clients of u.s. firms, they would be creating essentially two different standards. american brokerages can accept payments from their european clients but they are going to turn around to their american clients, big pension funds and say, we cannot accept cash payments from you. it needs to be tied to research. you have a situation here where there are certainly groups that are not happy. big wall street brokerages that were pushing for this are thrilled but investor advocates and u.s. pension funds are not. vonnie: ben bain, thank you for
joining us. our the bond bears having a moment? ray dalio shares his thoughts. we will have some of that interview, next. a quick check of the markets this ecb day, although as we have heard from our guests, the focus has shifted toward earnings. up 3/10 of 1%. .he nasdaq is the laggard today the 10 year yield is back at 2.43%, that particular movement on the ecb. this is bloomberg. ♪
news. here is mark crumpton. mark: the house approved bipartisan legislation to impose new sanctions on iran. the bill looks to penalize tehran for its support of -- its pursuit of long-range ballistic missiles while still keeping the nuclear accord largely intact. lawmakers want to hold a run accountable for what they call destabilizing behavior in the region. steve mnuchin is in israel where he met benjamin netanyahu. netanyahu thanked mnuchin for the support of the united states and the trump administration while mnuchin said the u.s. does not have a better partner in the region than israel. mnuchin is in israel for three days. the leader of catalonia said he will not call regional elections that might have result of the crisis with the spanish government. the spanish president accused the government of trying to eradicate the region's
traditions. the prime minister wants lawmakers to give him the power to remove -- over his threats to declare independence. -- is out as manager of the new york hankies. he will not return after 10 years. he led the yankees to more than one game of the world series. they won under him in 2009. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. jeff gundlach is waiting for a moment of truth. the billionaire hedge fund manager says he sees -- as the fed unwinds its balance sheet. ,> we have long equity markets without getting too much into our positions. >> why not, let's get into your positions. >> we don't.
i'm saying, no, the answer to your question. eventually, it comes along, but we are in a different environment now. 2008 until 2017, we were in a certain type of environment. that environment was something in which it was the pushing of interest rates down to the point of creating negative interest rates, with the positive carry. quantitative easing to push money into the system. of7 is the transition amending all of that around the world. we are entering a new era in which there is going to be the raising of interest rates and the reducing of quantitative easing. that action that they took produced significantly bad real interest rates. on the 10 year real interest
rates, about half a percent. next to nothing. the breakeven inflation rate for 10 years is 1.8%. those numbers are very low , to getof repression the economy to do that. we are now in a transition, a different environment. that's the equivalent of them during the late stage of the cycle. there is tightening. they become more concerning, they are more and more difficult to get perfect. as we are progressing, we are entering a period of greater risk. when you look at the bond market, there is risk. to be aoks to me significant amount of risk. let's go to policies. is -- is not on that short list of the fed. heard from the ecb. we are waiting to hear who the
president will pick to lead the fed. how much does personality matter at the federal reserve? he's got rules or principles of his own -- on that note, what would you say to the next chair, what he or she needs to focus on? >> a bunch of questions in there. personality, i think the real question is principles. if you were to write them down and articulate them, and discuss them in history over a period of time, that's a good thing. they have different principles. matters of quantitative easing, whether it is too tight or too loose. i think it can matter a lot, in terms of monetary policy, particularly the notion of quantitative easing and whether it is too tight or too easy. fromhen we have the pace since were talking
about it -- the pace of the unwinding of the balance sheet. i look at those numbers and i don't think they will be able to continue that pace because it is the equivalent of 2.5% of gdp. if you have that happening at the same time as the increased budget deficits, we could have an increase of another 1.5% of gdp. that's a big number in the supply/demand of bonds. there will be that much amount of effective selling of credit by the federal reserve. >> are you predicting with the tax reform proposed, we are going up to 5-7% of deficit to gdp? >> we will almost certainly have a significant move in that direction. you could even see it in the market action. on days where it looks like they are making more progress, bond markets are inclined to selloff. probably ang to be larger deficit, which means more
selling of bonds. time, in terms of the balance sheet change -- i think they will be cautious. when you are in this part of the cycle, it is delicate. ecb is the movement and the , going to be analogous to that. today's meeting, what is the pace of -- we know the direction . if we move further along, you know the direction. you know the direction in japan, a little bit slower. , there ision in china going to be more of a tightening of credit. the complexion of the world we are in is changing in a profound way. asry decade, practically, defined in characteristics. the 1960's was a. here -- the 1960's was a period of strong growth. a very lively conversation.
emma chandra is here. to be concise, boneless chicken wings are back. they've done better than expected. getting customers to opt for the boneless chicken wings as opposed to their regular version . if you don't know what a boneless chicken wing is, it is essentially some white meat, likely friday. shery: i mean, i'm lazy. >> they want more people to buy those, mainly because chicken wing prices have been going up. through most of the part of the year, they have started to pull back. been going up, and obviously, you can still only get two normal wings per bird, where you can make more of the boneless version out of one chicken. they've done very well to get people to offer that version, which has helped them cut costs.
they've offered a number of other things that are cutting costs, including slashing travel, labor costs. two wings is two wings. why would you want to try to make three or four wings out of two? >> i don't know. i don't like going through the wings with the bones. >> is this part of a turnaround? >> they've been doing quite badly this year. the stock had been down about 34% until today, and one of the worst performers on the s&p restaurant index this year. the company had attracted ,ttention from activists pushing for coffee beans ceo,cks, pushing out the
who is leaving the company at the end of this year. there are still some areas of concern. even as we have seen profit improved in the last quarter, the company still expects to see decline of 1.5%. a bit of turnaround, but there is some way to go. shery: the boneless chicken wings will help. plenty of technology companies are reporting earnings. twitter reported before the bell, beating estimates and getting a boost in morning trading. full disclosure, bloomberg is -- areing a service for also due to report after the bell. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's editor at large, cory johnson. bloomberg is in the works with twitter, but that also gives rise to the question -- is twitter overcoming that perception that it is this neat
media platform that only people like us, journalists, use? >> i'm a big fan of twitter. .ou can follow me it's a wonderful platform for people like us, a huge platform for president trump. twitter, you would think, could not get more publicity. while these numbers beat wall street estimates, i think it tells you more about how bad the estimates were than the business itself. the business itself is shrinking. the user base is barely growing. the company is not at all in the clear yet. numbers look at the that they actually put up, compared to estimates, it's great. but that is about the ability of wall street to estimate. at the numbers, the user growth numbers, the user numbers, overall user
that and sayk at so what? the business is smaller. if you look at user growth, this should be a point at which -- with all of the attention it is getting, people like us tweeting all of the time, you would think would be less anemic. 1.2% user growth is extraordinarily weak by my estimates. furthermore, you look at monetization. an advertiser was saying that is the platform we want to be. -- people want to look at this platform and find exactly the content they want and are willing to pay more as an advertiser. that would be good, but that's not what's happening. shery: i almost interrupted you, because i'm keen to get to the next company. reporting post-market today. what are we expecting? >> the commentary around the
whole foods business -- one of the things i love about the press release when it comes out is it reflects the way they run that business. a whole kitchen sink of every last brilliant and stupid thing they are doing at amazon, it will be highlighted in the press release. you got to do the work and get to the numbers quickly. the greatest variable in amazon's results is not the retail business coming off the second quarter, which is not as important. it is a doubly, amazon web services. the mostness is important business in the world, bar none. we'll see what they get out of third-quarter results. that growth rate is slowing down . i think notably. we will see what it means. if we look at the percentage growth, you can see that number -- while still impressive, it is really coming off.
i wonder how much more those growth rates are going to slow down and what that is going to mean for this important business. vonnie: more and more storage providers coming into the industry. his amazon seeing competitive pressure? >> there's lots of competition, but they are far and away the leaders. -- rackspace is close to offering, but microsoft is coming out also. the microsoft azure platform. we are going to hear about that with the microsoft results tonight. they are a smaller business, but have a faster growth rate. ultimately,k that might there be different types of users who would go to different platforms? perhaps a that has a company deep and long-held relationship with microsoft may be looking for a certain kind of business with microsoft azure.
with startups and another ecosystem around, uber co--- uber, airbnb, might use amazon. we will hear more about the customers and types of customers they are getting. i think analysts are expecting strong commercial cloud business growth. we also have alphabet. how is the google website doing and youtube? >> youtube has been a chief change in the monetization of alphabet business and google's business. one of the interesting things, i think, for google, and it is not a new story, the fact that they are putting more types of advertisements there, taking the -- they are sucking the revenues from the world of advertising. but they are offering new types of advertisements that are getting more clicks. the cost per click will
stop declining, but it seems that every quarter for years, that number is coming down. even as the ship to mobile comes, the bottom keeps falling out of the bottom. -- the bottom keeps falling out for the ads. they are going to want to hold a lot of pricing at some point, and we don't expected this quarter. the commentary on the call tonight will be crucial. vonnie: we've been talking about how good earnings season is so far, but we are starting what could be the most important component of earnings season, the tech earnings. cory,you, and as always, bloomberg editor at large, will be reporting on bloomberg technology. it is time for our latest business flash. traderhsbc currency stuart scott will be extradited to the united states to face charges. this is after a london judge rejected his application to stay in the united kingdom.
his ex-boss was convicted of front running billion dollar currency order. -- is discussing new technology for his new city, neon. interview, theg prince said -- with amazon, to power and automated robotic city. 500 billion dollars in investments and is set to open for business by 2025. real estate investors see opportunity in utah. -- ranking salt lake city as the third most survivable u.s. market. from -- whonefited viewed it as an alternative to higher-priced cities like miami and denver. seattle came in at number one due to job opportunities and the
♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. equities are on a record run, putting new yorkers in a buying mood. there is a bidding war underway in the hamptons with property buyers scouring deals for non-luxury homes. these homes cost up to $3.3 million. -- the ultra luxury homes are sitting on the market.
then the other part of that hamptons, the less than $500,000 homes. for more, we are joined by -- what is the basic story? people are back, but in a certain segment of the market. >> there is more buying going on. but they are buying something very specific. non-luxury homes. --the hamptons, non-luxury it is difficult to find things that are under $3.3 million. the cheaper they are, the more they are getting bid up. they are leaving the luxury alone. talking aboutalso condos and other types of properties in the lower end. >> that's a relatively new niche for the hamptons, but this quarter, they sold the fastest that they have sold in many years. shery: how much are they? $567,000,ian price is
a lot less than a hamptons median, close to a million. -- signifying that wall street is back to an extent? or that vacation home buying is back? what does this signify? >> it is a barometer of wall street, connected to how wall street does. suggests that people have the confidence to buy a second home because there is a second home market. i guess you could look into the fact that people don't want to splurge too much, don't want to buy a $10 million home, but $3 million home will do fine. the image of being ultraluxury when it comes that hamptons, and suddenly it gets crowded. if you go around on a summer weekend, it becomes crowded. when the non-luxury market is under $3.3 million, you are
still talking about a high-end buy-in. shery: people who spend that kind of money on places, today where he about interest rates going up about -- do they worry about interest rates going up 25 basis points? you have wall street buyers, i'm sure that crops up into the thinking of any kind of investment. some are cash buyers, but some are mortgage buyers. you figure, rates are low, and if they might go up, this is the time to do it. this is an alternative investment. shery: no luxury homes are becoming popular, does that take away from luxury homes? >> it depends, quarter to quarter. it didn't happen this quarter. there were more listings of such properties been people who took them off the market. shery: thank you so much for
that. you might be shopping now. reporterreal estate for bloomberg news. narrowlyublicans adopting a budget resolution setting the stage for the release of a tax bill wednesday. the challenges for the overhaul are far from over. republican congressman tom cole joining us in the next hour. you can catch all of our interviews on the bloomberg with the function tv . vonnie: all of those interviews of the day and more. this is bloomberg. ♪
step closer to tax reform. david: house republicans narrowly passed -- without any democratic votes. tax reform is not the only thing on president trump's agenda. he plans to outline his plan to fight the growing opioid epidemic. we will bring that in about an hour's time. ambitious plans in riyadh this week, including the $500 billion city. shery: earlier today, the house adopted a senate budget resolution giving congressional republicans the tools they need to avoid any democratic filibuster of their tax overhaul plan. e