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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  November 24, 2017 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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york, i'm vonnie quinn, this is the european close on bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we're covering. it's the $1.4 trillion item on president trump to do list. d.c. is gearing up for a crucial week to help push through tax cuts. merkelchancellor angela failed to form a coalition but main members of the opposition party may get final say on a deal. vladimir putin wears the crown at opec. he emerges as the most important player ahead of talks on extending production cuts. have a look at where european equities are trading. it's 30 minutes until the close of trading in great britain.
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continent as well, we see the ftse index trading down and it has been all day. continental indexes have been doing well but the ftse's down. 1% stoxx 600 is down 1/10 of and the dax and the cac 40 is doing well. a little bit of recovery here. currencies, two days story has been a euro story. as we move closer to the possibility of a majority government in germany, that's the heavyweight anchor of europe with the euro trading up and it's now 100 -- it's now $1.19. late the talk collapsed sunday night, the euro dropped down to $1.17. talks inhe coalition germany, so goes of the euro.
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is closelyrket linked to what we have going on here. germanu have problems in talks, the yields or the spread is jumping up from spanish and german debt. all the yields are rising as investors sell debt. they are presumably using some of that money to buy equities. the german ten-year bund is 36 basis points. vonnie: thank you. the fridayinto trading davis thanksgiving week. abigail doolittle has the latest on a lower volume day. abigail: all the major indices are higher by less than 1%. is consistent with what we have seen this week with gains are the major averages. it's the first time we have seen a weekly gain for the dow and the s&p 500 in three weeks of the rally seems to be extending into the shortened holiday week
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and holiday shortened day. today's black friday kicking off the official start of the shopping season. take a look at some of the retailers. we are seeing nice gains including amazon up nearly 2%. department stores macy's and kohl's are trading higher and the gap is also higher as we hear reports of a strong start to the holiday shopping season. it's up 17% year-over-year in terms of spending by 5:00 p.m. yesterday. evening, 1.52 billion dollars spent ahead of black friday. ons a very strong start but the year, department stores is a different story. this is a one-year chart of bloomberg intelligence department store index and one year ago, significantly higher. right now, over the course of the year, down 46% as retailers
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and department stores struggle to keep calm's and numbers going in the right way. theaps this holiday susan season will be an inflection point. in the media space, let's look at charter and comcast with shares lower despite that net neutrality was rolled back wednesday which should help these internet providers. another point of pain for comparisons being made between comcast and at&t and time warner. for some of the assets. the department of justice is putting a hiccup in the plan of perhaps at&t and the time warner deal so that's hurting the shares of comcast, perhaps some investors thinking it will not go through anytime soon. vonnie: thank you for that. president trump's plan for a $1.4 trillion tax cut will be
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entering a make or break week. senate republicans plan a vote this thursday. it's expected to be a dramatic moment that will come after a debate that could go all night. johnny's now from washington is kevin cirilli. if we get passage of a senate bill next week, how much more likely is that make it that we get tax reform this year? kevin: very likely. from the sources i talked to, they save it will likely be a vote in the senate on thursday. we should note that senator lisa murkowski who was a republican who has been holding out over the repeal of the individual mandate as the mechanism to pay for this tax reform bill, she has walked back her comments. she looks like she is on board and many people read into that that republican consensus is now building behind this. dayhey get it done by spurs , all indications would suggest that all systems are go to get
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this done by the end of the year. vonnie: a few senators we are not quite sure about. bob corker may be the one that is most revealing as to whether this passes are doesn't pass? kevin: great point and i have concerns over different reasons. with senator ron johnson, he would like to see the pass-through rate lowered more postop susan collins has concerns about health care and you look at the other two, they have concerns over the process. they don't feel it's transparent enough and i have concerns about what's in the legislation proposal. onuld this not get done thursday, this would be a devastating blow to the administration and was suggest the administration doesn't have the political capital it needs to get anything done. we should also note that while republicans are defining this is a make or break moment with midterms next year on the line, democrats are saying not so fast, look at what happened in
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virginia the other week. also look at what's happening in terms of the polls. the polls suggest that most americans are not necessarily sold that this is the right tax package they need. i want to ask about something slightly different. investors over here have been looking toward december and are worried about the idea of a possible government shutdown. i thinkne of the risks keeps long equity investors up at night. when will we start hearing about the work out and continuing resolutions and the possibility of a government shutdown in washington? kevin: the washington war is already brewing behind-the-scenes. toember 8 is when they have pass the partial government funding bill to avert a partial government shutdown. i think this is where you will hear a lot about the presidents thegration policy d oraca,
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dreamer bill and what will happen with them. the president and treasury secretary have indicated they want to avoid this at all costs. tax reform and the senate passed next week, that would be a good indicator that perhaps a government shutdown would most likely be averted and people are on the same page. right now it's quiet but i don't want to get us -- get ahead of myself. when they get back the short holiday recess next week, that's when i think we will hear chatter about that. you never know with this administration what could pop up as far as issues. another one they are focused on is the confirmation hearings for jerry powell. i would assume this could go through no problems since the republicans have a majority, is this the case? kevin: the senate banking committee had a big meeting. senate bankinge committee chairman in charge of that committee and he says he is
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backing him. republicans have control of this committee. senator elizabeth warren is on that committee and she will use this as an opportunity to really question him about his policies. democrats backing off some of their criticism and some even like him. he will get confirmed and will get out of committee and get approved out of committee unless there is a bombshell. once he is out of committee, he will be on the senate floor by the end of the year. speaking in is congress next wednesday as well so it will be interesting to see with jerome powell testifying tuesday and janet yellen testifying wednesday. maybe we can wife you see what differences of tone and style and substance there could be between the two fed chairs. vonnie: the former national security adviser michael flynn's
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team has stopped cooperating with the president. how dangers a distraction could this be for tax reform next week? kevin: i don't think it will be a distraction for tax reform civil because republican leadership has an incentive to get the to keep control of the 2018 midterm elections. they are separate investigations in terms of republican leadership. developments in the new probe and the rush andstigation, michael flynn his attorneys used to have an alliance with the president's attorneys and that's done reportedly and now he seems to be quite fully as robert mueller and his investigation. this is not going to end by the end of the year. it will carry very much into next year. vonnie: our thanks to you. check in on first word news with taylor riggs. taylor: if the deadliest single attack in egypt in years, at
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least to a to five people were killed when militants armed with guns and explosives stormed a mosque according to egyptian tv. it happened in the northern sinai peninsula. the area has been the site of a number of attacks by local islamic state affiliates. the egyptian president says the assault will not go unpunished. tosident trump as promised quit supplying weapons to kurdish forces. he spoke after president trump and turkey's president had a telephone discussion. the u.s. has been arming the syrian kurds to fight islamic state. turkey's oppose because abuse the syrian kurds as terrorists and -- and extension of the separatists in turkey. zimbabwe have now has its first new president and almost four decades. he was sworn in to replace robert mugabe. he was forced out of office after 37 years. president promises a democratic election will be held
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next year. zimbabwe is in dire straits. the jobless rate is 90%. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thanks very much. coming up, rex it rattle, more insight on theresa may's meeting with european union president toald took as she starts spread progress. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: live from bloomberg world record is new york, i'm vonnie quinn. berlin,am live from
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matt miller counting down to the european close. let's get more insight into the brexit talks. the u.k. prime minister theresa may is meeting with the eu donald tusk and many other powerful leaders in brussels. joining us now is catherine mcguinness. i think the main issue for so many months now has simply been can -- will britain pay the trade bill and move onto talks? have we finally crossed that hurdle? is theresa may finally willing to pony up the few extra pounds to make this work? >> i think we are hopeful we will see progress on that in the next few days. it's a question of paying dues. if we spend too long haggling over the last details, we will get the worst deal but then we can start moving forward and talk about future trading agreements.
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i'm hopeful we will see progress. matt: i spoke back in february with the chancellor of austria the bills ball parking at about 60 billion euros. now we are hearing that britain is willing to get closer to that figure, maybe 50 billion euros is what we are looking out -- looking at. does that seem right? >> i wouldn't want to put a figure on it but i would like to see movement quickly. it would be good to see a particular agreement on the transition so that there is clarity about moving smoothly. i am talking about the future trading agreement. vonnie: it must be very difficult for you as policy chair for the city of london to try to talk to people without knowing exactly what is going on. how much do you know about the negotiations? do you have any sway over them? what they arew
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talking about the certainly, we are speaking clearly to government about the need of the private sector. we want the transition as soon as possible. we want clarity on the trading agreement. other than that, i have no knowledge of exactly what they're talking about. vonnie: how are you dealing with major banks, clearing houses and so forth. .t's so uncertain >> it's true that people are making arrangements to serve their customers on day one after brexit. at the moment, they are making arrangements in the dark. they don't know where we are moving. the sooner we can agree to a transition so people a time to work out what the goal is and we can start talking about long-term arrangements, the better. for me, one of the
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questions for a long time has been what to do on the border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. i cannot imagine a soft border along the lines of what we have around switzerland and the eu. how could it keep people out the way brexiteers wants it to. how will it work out? >> it's a difficult question, there are possible solutions. i can only speak from the financial processional -- professional services sector. it's a difficult issue and we will have to find a solution. solutions are you looking to the central authority or the it be in london wider government on things like housing in the financial district in the big city, like
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people moving out of canary wharf and other financial districts? what can you do for those areas? what are we seeing in terms of movement from the financial districts? vonnie: what he looking for in terms of compensation from central authorities for those kind of movements? onat the moment, we are set getting a good final settlement. we are not expecting to lose huge numbers of jobs. a few thousand jobs will be moving but there are plenty of opportunities for the future that we are working on which we hope will fill those spaces. looking at new markets. i'm off to china next week to see what we can offer. at the moment, we are just looking for a sensible outcome from the current negotiations.
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wholesale expecting a exodus from the financial sector. matt: thanks so much for your time. catherine mcguinness, city of london policy chair. still ahead, we will talk about a company building a new factory in the u.k., aston martin, entering a totally new stratosphere in terms of price. what this means for james bond's ride of choice next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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world headquarters in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. matt: i am live from berlin with the european close minutes away. aston martin that is synonymous with his most famous secret agent, 007, it's newest hyper car comes with a price tag of more than double 0 high at $2.6 million. what does this mean for a company was vehicle sales have since 2007 and one that got its headquarters in the united kingdom. joining me now is chris bryant who writes about the automotive industry. what i find very interesting is that here is a carmaker that is very small, sales have dropped since the recession and it's not owned by any of the major players here. yet they will still build a new factory in the united kingdom. how is that? it's surprising.
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aston martin is still independent. it's trying to plow its own for a which is difficult when you don't have the support of a parent. there were some great results out this week with four consecutive quarters of profit now, sales are up more than 80% next and models. aston martin really seems to have a spring in its step at the moment. matt: and still manages to still put out some incredible products. i've tested lamborghinis and for a reason the aston martin never ceases to amaze me with such a --ht budget with keeping without letting costs get out of control, they managed to put out a car like the new vantage that sells out before the year is over. >> right, sales are down about half since 2007 but they are managing with a small budget. they haven't got a huge amounts of capital to play with but they have some advantages. they get some technology from
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daimler and some from ford. they've also got a great team of engineers in the keep turning out some really excellent designs. their entry-level model has gotten really good response. these hyper car valkyrie projects with a huge price tag that generates a lot of excitement for the brand. vonnie: the valkyrie is selling for $2.6 million. how many people will buy it at that price point? how many will he make? >> these cars sell out as soon as they are announced. you have a hard aston martin fans who really want to get them a money order list. the wonderful thing about that is that they put up cash straightaway. you have to put down a deposit and that's incredibly important for a businesslike at some martin -- like aston martin which does not have a lot of cash at its disposal.
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thatnounces a high-end car will not appear until 2019, takes in the cache on they can start working on these projects straightaway. matt: for 150,000 dollars, you can get the new vantage. you describe it as an entry-level car but a designer once said if the db-11 is the samurai stored, the vantage is a scalpel. always love reading your column on bloomberg. chris bryant in berlin with us. .e will stick to the car topic continue to follow us for that and the european close in just four minutes with continental indexes gaining and the ftse down. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail.
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under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store
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near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. matt: live from berlin and new york, this is the european close. stocks are finishing up the day and the week in european trading. let's take you quickly through the market action and look where
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we have wrapped up. we have the equity indexes which did not move that much in london. the ftse is unchanged. only three points dropped of their. the stoxx 600 stoxx 600 is the broader european index. 1% andnly down 1/10 of in the core european countries, there were gains across the board. in german lady debt in germany, we did the best but the cac almost gained a quarter of 1%. everywhere else is pretty much across the continent, we saw gains. looking at the currency moves, that was the story of the day. there is so much news surrounding the creation, the possible creation of angela merkel's government here starting to look like there is the possibility of a majority government. we'll discuss that in the second
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but any time you get that kind of talk, the euro strengthens you see the euro trading at $1.19. after the collapse of talks, it dropped down to $1.17. euro traders are happy when angela merkel gets what she wants. looking at debt trading, investors were selling up bonds in order to buy stocks. this was not in the u.k.. they have been in the same range for a while. the blend is range bound but investors are selling off debt. it's red for some reason although the yield is rising. when things game, we colored them green. that's not the case with government debt. vonnie: we are trading around half volume levels today, it's a shortened trading weekend shortened friday but there are interesting things going on
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including the dollar weakening for a third straight week. we are below 93 on the dollar index. one currency bucking the trend is the japanese but that's just today. -- is the japanese yen but that's just today. you wouldn't think you would see the yield curve and oil trading at the same level. up on whether russia will extend their extension. moving to global micro movers, g20 countries, there is some european countries that are in the green today. some traders are looking across
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the pond for some opportunities. you see the yen is a little weaker and the mexican peso a stronger today. that's what we have for now. gmm. a great look at the in berlin, a lot of assets are moving depending on german politics. angela merkel and the social democratic party are seeking a way forward after her attempt to forge a coalition collapsed last sunday. earlier today, we talk up with baer.secretarynikola is veryellor merkel experienced. moderating which is -- with different partners. she was ablehink
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to give the vision and describe the way to join the vision but more to moderate and try to alan's all the differences, all the problems in between the partners. matt: that was bloomberg bergener rainer interviewing secretary beer. she is voicing concerns that we always hear about angelo merkel. this has been a dramatic week for german politics, amazing breakdown of the talks that we were just hearing about. now there's the possibility that martin schulz might have to do an about-face and go into coalition talks with angela merkel. what is the spd position right now? >> i think it's a desperate move. they realize they would not do well in case of a new election.
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i think schulz has realized that i'd better talk to the chancellor before i face new elections. bloomberg broke the story yesterday about martin schultz's plan when he went to speak with the president, like getting called into the principal's office, to say we will support a minority government and give them some help of they want to get together with the greens. is that cool? it's really not cool with angela merkel or the german people, is it? he knows very well that angela merkel is not going for a minority government. that's why he made the proposal. it's a bit of windowdressing. merkel doubt that angela would be willing if it comes to a minority government to do what she had set herself, she would rather have new elections. vonnie: if they have new elections, what would be the
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outcome? it's not like much will change between now and then, right? >> i don't know. so much as happened this week. you see new constellations. i think the established parties from thecdu and the social democrats, they would definitely lose right now. i think could do quite well. you might actually see some change. you never know the dramatics -- the dynamics during an election campaign. i think there would be some change. vonnie: is a risky move for the anncellor to call for election which would not take place until the first or second quarter next year. it could be risky. risky. definitely it's still better for her them leading a minority government.
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she would be more or less cornered. on the left you have then attacking her on the other side you have the liberal democrats. it's not a comfortable position. i think many people would see it as the beginning of her end. on the technical parliamentary aspects of this, does the president -- is the president the one who decides whether she has to go to a minority government or whether to call new elections question mark >> he gives a recommendation but angela merkel has a free choice. she can say she will do it or not. says you getf he the offer to lead a government, she has to figure out how to do it and how to get there. matt: it's a big assumption but assuming these developments lead to a grand coalition 2.0 and the
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spd joins forces with the union block again, that leaves the asd with the biggest opposition stake and parliament. what kind of power does the german opposition party have? >> they would have even more media attention because suddenly they would be the opposition party and they have a seat in important committees in the bundestag. for them, it would be good. the risk would be big. , theyre is a new election might do much better. vonnie: our thanks to you. let's check in on first word news with taylor riggs. the president of egypt thousand one of the country's
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deadliest terror attacks in europe will not go unpunished. 130 five people were killed when militants armed with guns and explosives stormed a mosque. the attack happened in the northern sinai peninsula. the area has been the site of a number of attacks by local islamic state affiliates. in china, the government is taking steps to boost consumption. it's cutting tariffs on a wide range of imported consumer goods ofm baby formula to sea equipment after being criticized for not doing enough on imports. in ireland, a political trend -- controversy has raised the possibility of an election. the prime minister is refusing opposition party demand for he fire his deputy over a whistleblower scandal. the places him on a collision course with the party that helped keep them in power. without their support, his government could fall. in south africa, an appeals court has extended the prison term of oscar per -- of oscar pretorius for more than 13 years.
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he was sentenced originally to six years for killing his girlfriend and they said the lower court had no reason to give them lead in say. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 1200 journalists and analysts in more .han 120 countries i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: thank you, coming up, russia and opec with major news about oil production. why people are calling vladimir putin the world's newest energy czar. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: live from berlin and new york, imf miller. vonnie: this is the european close. it is time for a bloomberg
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exclusive. opec and russia are agreeing to extend their oil production cuts to the end of 2018. the expectations of the deal has oil at a two-year high. both sides are hammering out crucial details. discuss isnow to bloomberg's managing editor for the americas. where do we stand? with russia at least, you can look away or blankets somebody might have said something that would throw uncertainty into the mix. >> that seems to be their specialty lately. by the saudivisit king, vladimir putin was talking about the option of extending the cuts be on the current march 30 deadline and having them run through the entirety of 2018. since then, we have heard conflicting information from the kremlin about whether that was a real possibility and whether we were interested in doing that. the latest we have from our reporting is there is an agreement with a lot of detail still to be worked out but it looks like they are heading toward that end of 2018
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timeframe for the meeting next week. vonnie: what would it do to the auto market if russia were to say at the last minute that we want language in there to revisit this in a few months up we get closer to the kluber breeden -- closer to equilibrium? >> there is speculation that it won't hold of its extended. potentialking at the meeting of opec at the end of june. they have an informal meeting that includes a gathering of all the folks that matter. no one in the market really expects that once this deal is hammered out, it will be ironclad. there is always a chance that people cheat or they look at the numbers again and decide they need to come off of the production cuts they've agreed to. why don't we call u.s. shale the new oil czar?
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hasn't the shale barrel been the downfall for crude? >> with shale, there is not one particular person to blame. what we see in shale is a lot of producers who don't have to answer to one particular president in the form of vladimir putin. what's interesting is that it used to simply be when the saudi's spoke, the entire oil market responded and now we're and whatre emphasis the russians are planning to do since the saudi's may declare they will not move on their own for production cuts. matt: the saudi's famously get oil out of the ground for a low cost. one saudi arabia leaders said we will produce the last barrel of oil on the planet. are the russians as cost-effective and efficient at getting oil out of the ground? >> it's not as effective but the role of the russians in the market is a bullish role.
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they have the ability to talk up the market. russia and saudi arabia, it's incredibly important we keep oil prices up. you're now looking at brent at $63 which some said that would not happen this year. now -- the role like russian role right now is the person most willing to take a stand to curb production make sure it's not simply the major opec producers taking a hit. havee: how much exploration and production companies ramping up activity with oil prices moving higher and what would a couple of dollars drop due to those companies? as an oil-producing nation, you want to see the highest price possible. opec in particular does not want to encourage u.s. shale anymore than they have to. you are still seeing about a five dollar discrepancy between western texas intermediate and
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brent. there is concerned that if you above $60, then shale will start coming back in full force. opec had shale producers talking to them recently. they are trying to understand exactly what shale presents in terms of obstacles and problems as the oil price gets higher. we don't think they got a very clear outlook at those meetings. there is varying estimates as to what happens with shale going forward. vonnie: it's not that people were holding back information? >> many people say it's $60 wti is where you will see more shale producers and an uptick in output. other people say that the u.s. government is overestimating how much currently is being produced.
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it remains to be seen exactly how high the oil price needs to be. at $50, you are seeing economic production in places where costs are very low. to see the whole industry come back to the levels they were in 2014 would require something north of $65. vonnie: among the top movers in the s&p 500 today with lower volume are some of the oil companies up about 2%. that's tina davis and we thank her joining us. nekatr ae, shares of reversing a loss of almost 6%. taylor riggs is here to tell us why. taylor: they had a phase
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three agreement to work on intubated orr mechanically ventilated patients with a certain kind of pneumonia. what's interesting is that buyer shares were only off about half of 1%. bayer is a huge company and this is just a blip on the radar. nektar pharmaceuticals were down as much a 6%. investors are right on this one. nektar is more of a chemo company and not a respiratory company and they get less than 1% of their total revenue research and license agreements from b ayer. they will incur about 3 million or $4 million in startup costs. mostwill avoid paying the $30 million in costs if they were to ramp up commercial preparation.
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not actually good news but not as bad as investors had thought. vonnie: our thanks to taylor riggs. coming up, leading the black friday blues, why retailers are -- are unusually optimistic about this season. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: live from berlin, i'm matt miller. vonnie: live from new york him i'm vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg markets. it's a positive earnings season for retail. the momentum may build is black friday kicks off this holiday shopping season. here is what macy's ceo jeff
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kennett told us earlier today. >> it's been a strong start to the fourth quarter. yesterday during black friday, we saw that. it's well online and we open their stores at 5:00. with in the stores last night, we are tracking quite well. joins usmma chandra from macy's in herald square. does it look busy, how things -- how are things on 34th street? it is very busy. this store opened at 5:00 p.m. 16,000 people were lined up outside at that time and they have shopped through the night and the traffic has built as we get into the better part of today. sold 7:00 a.m., they 200,000 coats and will sell about one million over the course of this weekend. a number of analysts that we
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spoke to add a black friday said the cold weather could be a significant driver of traffic and sales for a number of retail stores. macy's and others are saying fragrances and appliances are all selling well. matt miller here in berlin, great to see you. macy's saye ceo of about the challenges facing the retailer? hello, one of the big challenges has been the huge store footprint. they announced early this your that they were closing and number of stores. they still have over 600 and the cfo said earlier in the year that 245 would be the magic number of stores. i asked the ceo about that today in if they had further plans to close further stores. he said the store footprint is vital. >> if we announced we would close 100 stores, we close 70,
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third -- there are 30 more to go, there may be properties here and there we will be closing. we serve nationally in all communities as the macy's brand. the interplay between the online business and the bricks business is important. >> one of the other things you heard as they were talking about the e-commerce is an is and how important online is. that's where the momentum is when it comes to sales. it's expected that online sales will grow to about 20% this holiday season and the real benefit will be the online marketplace. 38% ofar, amazon took all e-commerce holiday sales. it's looking like it will be 45% this year. what we are hearing is that amazon is doing pretty
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track to have a net worth of $100 billion. vonnie: it's not even cyber monday yet either. don't to too much shopping. that is emma chandra at macy's on 34th street and herald square. bloomberg is coming up. there are more markets next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: it is noon and new york, 5 p.m. in london, and 1 a.m. in hong kong. sheri: welcome to bloomberg markets.
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, there are the stage is set for a make or break week for tax reform. senate republicans plan to hold a floor vote next week as tough opposition from democrats and some gop members. the moment of truth for retailers is here, the holiday shopping season shifts into high gear today as brick-and-mortar chains hope to ride optimism from their third-quarter earnings reports. another step toward reducing the global oil glut. russia and opec have agreed to oil cuts into next year before the meeting next week in vienna. more on that just ahead.


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