tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 19, 2018 1:00am-2:30am EST
a warm welcome to daybreak. it is 7:00 in europe. if you are in the united states, happy presidents' day. balance herece with the cash markets closed and you have the equity futures trading lighter than normal with the best run in equities within pushing awayd against volatility and rising yields. survey with the market drop to reenter and it is all about the united states this
week and the fed minutes and what you get on wednesday. andill begin to understand builds to the testimony with the actual power of powell. we have some numbers coming across your bloomberg terminal. we have breaking news on a dividend coming back and platinum declares a dividend. it is an interesting time in the market with donald trump raising and theter of tariffs dollar has trade tensions and the possibility of tariffs in the united states and the dollar manages to eat out this.
i mentioned to you that the paperates are opening and will come over the next few days . who keeps purchasing it? the chinese cannot get enough of this. they have increased their treasury holdings and we see their story and if they would ed with thefocus chinese holding the most amount of paper in the united states since 2010 and the japanese are dropping for the fifth straight month in december. this is the highest since 2008. line, way, a lovely
there is no such thing as a bad bond, just a bad bond price. and yourinto the rates news comes from the middle east. good morning. story's kick off with the of donald trump criticizing the mueller,crats, robert and his national security advisor. times within 24 hours and offended the validity of his victory and insisted there was no collusion. rick gates has agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with robert mueller. theresa may and her ministers are together for a brexit away day.
it is becoming clear that the united kingdom wants to stay and this is due on thursday. we will watch for what they mean for the path of interest rates this year. japanese exports and imports. ahead of forecast with the forecast of increased in eight months. finance ministers vote to replace the ecb vice president. meanwhile, the head of the latvian central bank has been detained by the anti-corruption
aside with calls to step and his lawyer says that he considers this move against him to be illegal. a global security conferences to focus on the encroachment in the middle east and described the aggression as the greatest threats to the world. a minister said that iran news to pay a price for the aggressive behavior. global news car by journalists and analysts in 120 countries since you can find more on bloomberg. auctions willnd come to the market in the shape of government debt and it will
the yield curve is still steep it is the indicator of trouble to come. there is a bit of a return we revert to flattening and all the warnings that come with that? >> this is a little of that of volatilityng and uph space and the yield is more with a key of whether it would invert and it has been a great indicator. they don't necessarily make
the ford flattening be expensive to make money from now. a chart for you here with the two-year bond inflation expectations that actually encroach for the first time on and there is the correlation between inflation sustainedns and how are we in the united states of america? this is where the movement has .een the most aggressive
>> i have a quick look at this graph here. >> this ties up the correlation. >> we can deal with the dollar in the second and are they becoming more entrenched? and, for us iny the united states, it is a mini there is the breakeven ith the fed tightening and one house of bond trader and we saw the basis
1% of theoduces theatricald it is and creates not much bang for your buck. this andintroduced japaneseiffs protected motorcycles and reagan did it. the market can deal with tariffs, but not a trade war. >> the beginning of the tariffs do not equate to a trade war to you. >> it is encouraging that we saw range offs come for a products and it was very encouraging, i thought.
china, in terms of the imports, it was barack obama who -- oduced the chinese exports drop and that is why they use the word theater. risk now?e big inwill talk about our man russia. equities have the best run since the ubs survey adds into the momentum. equity, did you see and the advantage? equities andbal
everybody says they want to buy the dip and there is a scare danger.latility and so, it is good for you on that one. we chose the u.k. equities because they had under-performed bought thed have would putquities and .ore into equities >> hold those thoughts and we will talk more about that shortly. a quick check on the equities futures. added to thee run
>> live shots of the emperor's palace in tokyo. aether you are taking pounding or not taking a pounding on the dollar, we have to talk about that. good day to you. >>: oh. initiallk about the public offering of a health care division as early as today, according to people familiar with the matter. they say they will use the money generated to acquire companies in these businesses and pay down the debt. raise between 6 billion euros and 10 billion euros.
the equity market has moved out of the boom phase and a new report from the website says that asset prices were down. london was they were sent from performing housing market and there was little to suggest the upturned is in store. right. handing it back to you. >> thanks. the trade about recovery powering ahead and the exports and imports registered strong rates with imports resulting in the monthly deficit. this morning.o i am ahead of the curve and telling you what this was before we got.
deficit.he first my eyeser that drew were the exports to china, the largest trading partner from a year earlier. this is really firing on all cylinders, to grab that phrase from bob lovely. dudley. and there the growth is no surprise with the japanese and japan is well strong in robotics. markets -- you look is technologyt and one of the
global managers can ignore and underweight it. we are going down the road of reappointment and they are trying to weaken the yen. >> the equity markets are traditionally hedges and we take neutral read on this and hedge and it hasexposure more to do with the risk when i arrive. >> we don't know what to do with that and i would not put too
with the trade numbers. because we have a bit of a dip going on there grew byrts -- exports 12%. what happened next in the dollar dictated by the equity week. up next on daybreak, the second-highest post going head-to-head. they dashed on the runners to take the seat of mario draghi. lineup in brussels.
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the coalition pact with mark will. the federal reserve will release minutes of the january meeting with janet yellen at the home. guy johnson is standing by and year andll chinese new liquidity might not be as it is. >> we are not going to get any trade and that is going to be a factor with the nikkei being the real threat. the japanese story is on the front and the japanese yen is down. andcan see the yen move this aggressive yen move has taken it down and it has started to run out. we will watch that indicator. trading and friend is
probably a more useful indicator and brente inflation trading in the mid-60's. copper is trading a little softer this morning and that has something to do with asia and the lack of liquidity there. the valuesa look at for you and they are positive. we have the fair value for you and it indicates up. as manus said, it was reasonably high for the markets and the story. be quiet. who knows what happens. the year is on inflation with
the finance ministers voting on phil flynn will become the central banker's next vice president. good morning to you. who do you think will win the vice presidency? >> good morning. economist,regarded philip lang, he has a background in politics and we know that some people don't like that transition from politics to the central bank, but he is a front runner right now and we could where he drops out before the vote takes place. it is political and it looks like he will win. there is no purchase in the
side of the table. the markets want to know if he is more hawkish and if he will grab on the coattails of the yen environment. >> yes. and we don'tdovish references and he wants to be presented as someone andis a little bit hawkish it is interesting to see what happens if he gets this. to strike ae way what it means for
the presidency. >> thank you very much. the battle was important and laid a greater piece of positioning. for us, will someone come in and get rid of the ridiculous stimulus? the negative rates with the ongoing qe and the strong economy. >> you said ridiculous stimulus and we were saving the euro a few years ago and there was
fingernails on the chalkboards. has it become ridiculous? away a fruitful, the punch full. a different type of party. and it isis ruined theirhe u.s. is doing and our chances to cut rates in the future. we get the rates up in the eurozone to come down in the next crisis. everything you just said, we
are going to stay past the end. does that language need to change? they set dates and times and we think the record will change. while we get towards the end of this year, maybe the rates will come to an end. has a new paper and they see the original target. how do we break 1%? >> we had to start with the and it willket
probably be fine. >> how quickly is quickly? >> it can be pretty quick. a couple the turmoil of weeks ago. it could happen in a couple of months come but the rhetoric needs to step up. a movement in rates could be repriced. >> the rhetoric needs to change in taking away some of the stimulus and the rates are weually negative here and
possession. setting this to buy u.s. is obviously tax-cut related and underlined the corporate sector of performance. the u.s. is roaring ahead in terms of earnings expectations and it looks like a giant pair when,and that wasn't sure because of the huge selling. it may have been over this time. disclosuresows the and he was ripping out the fx
>> will come back with that in just a second. mueller unveiled the details of a widespread and core new campaign by the russians to influence the 2016 election. president trump took to twitter to defend the validity of his victory and insisted that the other he nor his campaign colluded with the russians. thank you. good to see you this morning. how has russia reacted to this? >> well, with a certain amount of bravado. the minister in munich over the was asked about this and dismissed this issue, but i spoke to a senior lawmaker who
said that he expects this situation to escalate and that this could become a more toxic political issue in the united pressure forcrease further action against russia. moscowquestion is how expects to react and what they think the consequences will be? laughingans must be s off atoverbial america. >> the russians are expecting sanctions and they released a list of senior russian officials nottop businessmen who are
subject to sanctions, but could potentially become so. there were other areas where russia could suffer economically and told outside of moscow control. reverberationse on both sides of the atlantic. daybreak, is this a make or break week? latest withe very carney speaking later on today and, a little bit later, trade and growth and what risk in these surging yen poses to recovery.
relations. of informalare kind alliance. the munich security there was relief that no major war broke out under trump and anxiety about emerging risks and hotspots around the situation with north paid and israel has some of the damage coming off of the back of that. so far, they have not torn up the deal, but the rhetoric is heating up and it is something to look at.
is where they want to go. can they look at the policy? basically, you have saudi it is becomingnd a bit of a hardliner and the minister says, if we have to over-balance the market a little, so be it. that is what he told reporters arabia story from saudi is you need expenditures and buffers with a need to move the goal post and rebalance a little bit.
there are other metrics to measure success and it looks like we are in for an interesting few months to match the opec threat. >> absolutely. bloomberg.to we have international petroleum week and i will speak to bob to theand we will talk uae. the pound is never far from my attention and has a bit of volatility this week. that could determine whether the bank of england raises interest rates with a pick up in earnings pushing sterling higher. the bloomberg service is the with alanl be up
still with me. the story is that this is a make or break week and there is a probability of a rate hike. from the bankoric of england and the market is expecting this. andou look at the rhetoric the u.k. wants to take away stimulus and there is pressure there. there has been a transition do sterling will be a results of the transition do. business confidence is on the cautious and they are
about investing because of brexit. outave the time to work it the sterling dennis muilen >> let's get into the conversation you have. are they looking at other alternatives with capital and moving investment of the u.k.? is that part of the conversation? >> yes. there are the well-known plants and manufacturing is less so. ist is crucially important goodsstoms union and
travel between the u.s. and the u.k. and it is more of a andache with manufacturing that is why there is more of a the government says they would like to do something like a customers union. merkelnderstand dealated the tailor-made door toel open the something in between. day, theyend of the are pro-business.
for all not enough time of this and there needs to be a transition do. you need to put a parameter on it for me. see a weakness in they say they achieve by june and reassess it. of a risk of inflation expectations and what the prospects are of that. gethe ecb struggles to inflation and we have this idea pushing inflation world inflation and the inflation situation in the u.k. is sterling weakness.
it seems unlikely, with and put moneyt into the markets. job andbly the harder we may get that drop in sterling at some stage. thank you for being with me this morning and sharing your views. tomorrow, we will speak to the finance minister and get his views of the day. ands europe's largest bank the huge exposure. how did they see the world? reassessment look
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pick up that voice remote and just say "show me..." ♪ experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the olympic winter games like never before with xfinity. proud partner of team usa. bloomberg's european headquarters in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are today's top stories. bonds bonanza. traders braced for a quarter of a trillion dollars worth of u.s. paper to be issued this week. just how steeply will borrowing costs rise as the debt burden swells? a big twitter storm after 13 indictments. president trump lashes out at his critics. and as the euro area finance ministers vote today for the presidents -- we
are live in brussels. ♪ "daybreakcome to europe." we have breaking news on siemens. they have gone for the ipo on the health business. slow in terms of the timing. the idea of what happened in the first half of the year. the window is usually late april to the middle of june. siemens will be a major minority stakeholder after the free float. the listing is in frankfurt.
finally coming through on the timing of the health care ipo. have kaiser. you probably have a products from these guys. washing your close, cleaning your house. fourth quarter says you didn't buy anything more than what the market estimated. it was 2%. 2% and revenue is 3.29 billion pounds. it is this entire industry group responsible for the shakeup. we have seen the ripple across in the likes of wpb. bang in line 2%. we will have a conversation with the ceo. he joins us for his interview at 7:30 a.m., u.k. time. how much is he spending in terms of marketing? let's talk about the markets.
you have president's day in the united states of america. happy presidents' day. if you are having a day off and elite martini, if you have work tomorrow, you have work tomorrow. you have got u.k. unemployment. we will also get hsbc. they will all come through. you've got sterling. it is a big week. we will wait for the employment numbers and wages and london. it is still chinese new year. you get a current account in europe today. you get france. mark carney speaks later on in london tonight. paris is up by 15 pips at the moment. the dollar, it is a big week for the u.s. equities up by 11.6%. futures are open. next week, four equities in the five years. consumer sentiment, the highest
level since 2004.ubs did a survey . 10% to 15% of their wealthy clients put money to reengage with the market on the draw dime. dollar,ar, the aussie if you think global growth is intact and you are in a risk on move and perhaps the bank might be in hold mode, the aussie it is slightly stronger -- the aussie bid is slightly stronger. you have the dollar just prevaricating at the moment. you have a number of different issues. the prospect of tariffs from the united states of america into the world steel and aluminum is not the beginning of the trade war's. the world can deal with trade tariffs, but it cannot deal with trade wars.
there are indictments against russian individuals and corporates. that is hanging in the backdrop to the dollar consideration. have a look at the bond market. caches markets are closed, futures are open. this is the u.s. paper at the moment. $256 billion. it is all coming to the market. how expensive is at going to have to be to get that away? that is 4 billion more dollars than we saw in the last option. the peak in rates will be around 3.5%, 3.75%. the value is around 3.75%. they were talking about the bund market. if you price everything off the bonds, the quid pro quo is if you get to 3.5%, you would bust
out 1% and maybe break that in the european market and the o.a.t.'s would dovetail that. who is the vice chair? how hawkish will you be? -- how hawkish will he be? yousef gamal el-din joins us with the first word news. let's talk about what is happening with president donald trump. he has criticized the fbi, democrats, robert mueller's investigation, and his own national security adviser over russia's efforts to sway the election in 2016. in a 24 hours, he focused on defending the validity of his victory and insisting neither he nor his campaign colluded with the russian miss campaign effort. meanwhile, the l.a. times are reporting that rick gates indicted in october with paul manafort has agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with robert mueller.
u.k. prime minister theresa may and her ministers are together for a brexit away day. may seeks to unite the pro-and segments, some areas are breaking free. employment numbers are scheduled for wednesday and fourth-quarter gdp are due on thursday. we will watch for what they mean for u.k. interest rates this year. japanese exports and imports will registered strong gains in january. overseas shipments rose from a year earlier well ahead of forecasts. resultedase in imports in the first monthly trade deficit in eight months. zone finance ministers will vote on a candidate to replace the ecb vice president. meanwhile, the head of
lafayette's -- of latvia's central bank has been detained by the anticorruption bureau. there are calls for the governor to step aside to avoid hype -- harming the financial sector. his lawyer says he considers the move against him clearly illegal. two of iran's regional foes have delivered twin warnings, telling a global security conference it is time to address the encroach on the middle east. andnyahu described it rainy aggression is the greatest threat to our world. iran needsder said to pay for their aggressive behavior. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus? manus: thank you very much. it is going to be a week for options.
$260 billion of paper will come. it is up for grabs. the sales get the clearest guidance yet. borrowing costs need to rise in lieu of the debt burden. we have had recent selloffs. since the highest level 2008. we have the investor of london capital. there is a supply load coming to the market. $260 billion. one companies said they may have to price it more ritually. is that is something we have to markets?to in the >> absolutely. -- given howis late in the cycle it is coming and the implement rate at 4.1%. we know it is very tight.
we are well below our optimism level -- our optimum level. it is a matter of time before the prices begin to pick up. the hourly rate is now at 2.9% and is quite likely you will see another half percent. will put a lot of pressure on to the yield curve, especially the 10 year. you are talking about all of next year where the economy is going to accelerate. the fiscal boost is putting a lot on the growth rate. 0.4% for next year. nine years into the economy cycle, you are now in the process of creating real inflationary pressure and it takes time to come through. the market probably anticipates that, so i expect the yield curve to move up gently. manus: let's have a look at the yield curve. this is a 3-d model. it has been quite sanguine. if you look at the actual shift
of the curve, essentially we have gone through this flattening mode. we see a little bit of a reprice with the 10 year paper. you are seeing this slight flattening we have had. you think we begin to steepen a little further than this? ashok: absolutely, but i think the key here is it will not rise much. it may even begin to gently come down as it begins to anticipate their own session two years out with the rates squeezed. remember that the system is leverage across the globe and it is only a matter of time before this begins to take place. there is a boost happening this year and next year, but the price to be played is slow growth later on. manus: eight mini bust. one thing that is very clear, the s&p 500 had its best five 2011.if i take the
growth momentum you have just suggested there, did you add to any of your equities when you look at this kind of turnaround last week in u.s. equities? -- did you join the fray? accountsr most of the we accelerate the phasing process in. we believe we do not have a sustained their market in place bear marketustained in place now. you are talking about the consensus moving around around 18%, 19%. that is massive growth. the market has anticipated a lot of that. in 2019, double digits earnings expectations. in terms of disappointments, i think the market is fully priced .
there is no room for disappointment. manus:, you quite like technoloy enables -- manus: you quite like technology enablers. from the u.s. perspective, the extension of ibm, what is the drive? ashok: i think the businesses are adopting the softer society and services side. the point is the end customers have to accommodate new they need toand accelerate the changes they have to undertake or else they will continue to lose their market share and competitiveness will go down the line. this ideally placed to help the big businesses change their business models to tackle the way the world is changing with the internet everywhere right now. manus: the debate this week will be all around what we get from
the fed. this is janet yellen's last meeting. her dot drops off. it is going to be about what powell can do to guide the market. he has his testimony on february 28. there is a debate over the weekend as to what the ability , if thee u.s. economy u.s. economy can take three hikes. the market is beginning to consider the prospect of four hikes. where do you sit? at 3,iggins seemed to be 4 on the cards. ashok: i think about the last couple of years. the market is underpricing and the fed cannot deliver. manus: the fed has consistently delivered what it said it would last year in dots. ashok: it did. the market will begin to align itself to what the fed is saying.
the expectation is given the acceleration taking place in the economy, it implies the fed will refine and drift upward a little bit. i think the chances here are three rate hikes are discounted in the question -- and the question is will we get the fourth discounted? i think the probability rises and that is when the market will take notice. i think the big moment and we are seeing in the market will be sidelined. the momentum is going to be lost as soon as the new inflation numbers come up in the next couple of months. i think perhaps this will be the best of the market happening right in the very first quarter of the year and i think it will be downside for the rest of the year. with: ashok shah stays the daybreak team. despite growth in both imports and exports, could they provide
markets trading on the back of what was the best week in a five years in the united states of america. futures are up over 10 pips. cash markets are closed. .72%.at goldman sachs was saying they have a new target on bunds. that all coagulates around the pricing of the trade you late -- of the markets. trade meantime, japan's is in recovery mode, powering ahead in 2018. exports and imports registering strong growth in january. it results in japan's first monthly trade deficit since 2017. from tokyo.joins us this is the very personification robustal uplift and a
global demand picture. is that a fair take on the day? henry: i would say that's true. japan's export looks pretty good. it has for about a year now. today, the headline numbers were good. they topped expectations at about 12%. a little bit of that was due to seasonal factors. yearyear was the lunar new , it fell in january, so we saw a bump this year of exports to china up 30%. , external demand remains solid and that is good for japan. they are seeing strong demand for autos, for semi-conduct er machinery and much more. manus: a lot of talk around dollar-yen cascading, heading towards 1.05.
were saying itts would be 100 to the dollar before all was said and done in the halfway mark of the year. what is the impact of the yen the spark? -- thus far? henry: probably not too much. much of the move has been this month, so the stronger yen was probably not reflected to much in january's trade data. that would definitely depend on where the yen goes from here. aroundoes down, up to 100, that will be more of a concern. it is a concern now for policymakers at around 1.06. it could cut in to export values, cut in two corporate problems. so far, business sentiment is holding that pretty well. that is due to strong external demands.
in thaten keeps moving direction, that could change. manus: henry hoenig breaking numbers.japanese trade a good set of trade data. numbers. to a certain extent, the first deficit in eight months, but the deficit to china is strong, up 30%. ashok: we sometimes underestimate how integrated japan is with asia. asia is the main beneficiary of the upturn in the global a acceleration we are saying. japan benefits from the acceleration and principally the upturn that is taking place in most of asia right now. i think these numbers reflect the good upturn that is going on, but that is a more medium-term. the stronger yen will temper in terms of the abilities. the nikkei is sensitive on the medium-term. i think they will find the
momentum comes down a little bit. people were very pessimistic about japanese equities, so what we are seeing is some of the optimism has been tempered given the data coming out, and that is driving the index up. more medium-term, we all know the long-term structural challenges japan faces in terms of demographics. one would not necessarily want to get carried over the equities. i think that is about all you can say. manus: you don't want people to get too excited about japanese equities. how about european equities? zonee going into the kill for earnings here. we have financials this year. this is your earnings estimate. earnings and analytics done for bloomberg. siemens growth really quite stunning. the earnings growth comes through at 135%.
the earnings growth comes through on financials, 138%. how much more europe do you want to take given the e.a. backdrop? ashok: i think we have the first signs with the european growth is in a sustainable growth with the qe going on. qeever, the benefits of the have been that performance has improved dramatically and wages improved. the consumer cycle begins to pick up. the domestic component of the european equity markets are beginning to get very exciting. the expert side of the equation with europe being so strong is it will slowdown in terms of the corporate earnings momentum. when you concentrate on the domestic side of the economy, that is much more to do with the consumer stocks.
it comes with a bit of a lag, but it is not too early to look at them as well. that is a large spread of the availablees that are to do the due diligence and pick up. the exciting bid is about the financial. sector, the banking sector that is in a very strong recovery, clearly for the higher risk of traders and equities. i think the european tier one two income is crying to be bought out because we have a middle term cycle as the balance is continue to be spent. manus: thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. twothat is ashok shah. a quick check on the futures for you. coming up, different facets to go on through the markets. we will get to the european equity markets. it is presidents' day, up 0.3%.