tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg February 23, 2018 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
♪ >> coming up on bloomberg best, the stories that shaped the week around the world. the u.s. treasury auctioned off billions of dollars of bonds. >> we are back to the same kind of demand structure that you saw in october, november and december of last year. >> they will be getting a new bp with news of new construction and staff reduction. decide onn finally mixed signals coming from markets. >> we aren't expecting any more multiple expansion out of the u.s. equity market. marketin the u.s. bond others you must attractive.
>> the insurance of prostate promises is virtually limitless. >> central banks released meeting minutes with important while theinvestors fence stock profit. they're overreacting everything, they overreact to the upside, the downside. >> plus the earnings continue loud and strong. works what is great and pleasing is all of this is performing well. >> it is all straight ahead on bloomberg best. welcome. this is bloomberg best. your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from
bloomberg television around the world. markets were closed in the united states on monday but there were plenty of drama elsewhere. report for the nominees for the vice presidency of the european central bank. >> the euro group has nominated lewis for the ecb's eyes presidents role. it is a move that will hand madrid a top seed at the bank for the first time since 2012. >> it is a controversial decision because it is very unusual to see politicians making these transitions from government into the central bank, especially because the whole point of a central bank is going to be independent from political interference. waxy tries to portray himself as a hawk. he has spoken in favor of prosperity. he has been a strong supporter of the policies that have been taken in the past few years and spain was going to start with this in the -- it has rebounded
dramatically since the crisis. he doesn't have much of a track and th threat that -- the three-month option was repricing, to your notes are starting to flatten a little bit against this and one of the reasons for that is there will be a lot more of them. so the treasury department will issue this guy knows more every month, two-year and three-year. whether oblique issue an extra billion dollars for longer-term securities. i think one of the reasons you have seen the front and do a little bit worse here is on the supply. >> we're waiting for the results of the five-year auction and they're coming in right now. we see that the long end of the curve is just a little bit stronger but investors care about a few different things here. the one issued rate on this average, is 2.658%, those are the actual results in terms of bid to cover.
we're looking at a ratio of 2.44%. that is slightly stronger than the previous option. demand is here for options. if we say more hawkish fed we have the statement coming up this afternoon. what the discomfort bond markets? are keeping ae laser focus on is what the fed said at about inflation in the last meeting. didn't see a rate hike but we did see it with the addition of the word further a couple of times in the statement. and that turned out to be a hawkish at this -- hawkish addition -- as a uc markets getting a little bit nervous that the feds will be more aggressive. >> that is a hawkish set of minutes for the january fomc meeting. saidber of participants they already upgraded their 2018ast for gdp growth in when they met at the end of january. why?
quickening economic activity in the u.s., a brightening picture on the global outlook and thatse of the tax changes appear or may appear to be having a greater impact on the economy than originally -- anticipated by fed officials. >> i think the markets will take away pretty correctly that the fed will continue on the great pass it had already announced, they're not ready to raise the number of rate moves they will make this year. interestingly, we also heard from the philadelphia fed president suggested he is still in favor of to rate hikes rather than the three that is the consensus forecast. this is just on the daily session before the committee staff. we were insignificant impulsive territory. higherthe tenure spiking and we'll see what was going on as far as sentiment and a legler
into the close. >> their expectations that the fed my telegraph a pullback of that rate hike past that we have for 2018. i think when we first got the statement it got that maybe there was a pullback but once they got a between the lines they said the fed is not going lower than three. they will probably not go higher than three. we are basically back to where we were this morning. what this at is that there has been a major mispricing in this market or at least a misalignment between what the market sees, the stock market sees, with the bond market sees and what the fed is telegraphing. >> barclays and a tour of 2017 on a mixed note, trading, slumped 24% in the fourth the chief executive was optimistic about the ahead.
he's putting his money where his methods and considering a share buyback for the first time in more than 20 years. 2018 with a clean operating amount, that is the first time in five years for barclays. also, we close 2017 with a strong capital position. for this will enable us to do it plan for a we dividend of 6.5 cents for our shows. that is more than double what we paid in 2016 and 2017. we feel good about that. we learn from the account of the january meeting out this morning that although they were comfortable staying the course for now, some officials were ready to remove a place to expand the bond buying program if needed.
some members expressed a preference for dropping the using bias regarding the asset purchase program from the governing councils litigation program as a tangible reflection of rain forest companies. however, it to say was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified. >> it is important not to read too much into this because these governing council members expressed in that they do not carry the day. for some of them, it is a natural step that you get to the point where instead of continuing to be promising to you say we program, will carry on up to a certain day. alternatively, you start to shift on total stimulus. that is not and that is what some of them want.
>> the seven year is 2.49 which is lower than the previous auction. 54.2% to end this. how would you compare that to the treasury earlier this week? >> it is just like the rest of the auction. we are back to the demand structure you saw in october and december of last year. it was kind of ho-hum. this was an ok auction. lucrativehere was a indigestion in the market, it needed to be taken down. when you get to the 10 and 30 or -- ons, will they be demand he was moving the chairman and prosecuting him.
talk about taking some control. what's the regulators say they will be taking control. as you said, we will see if the chairman will be pushed out of his post and prosecuted for economic crimes. they also said that the reason they haven't stepped in is because illegal operations at the company were testing and putting pressure on the solvency of the company. biggest been one of the swaggering conglomerates in the last five years or so, spending billions of dollars in acquisitions overseas. they have about $320 billion worth of assets. not just the flagship once. companies income is ready from the netherlands to korea. casesey paid in many skyhigh valuations and skyhigh of those assets
as well. it will be a long process of trying to unwind some of these problematic purchases for the regulators. you have regulated officials from the video siena for exchange commission and the securities and banking. they're trying to on think this problem. >> still ahead, as we review the week on bloomberg best, neil says market was should not not the fed office course. they see bank consolidation coming in europe. plus, restoring a heaping helping of reports. more of the top stories bloomberg reports that deutsche bank plans to cut hundreds of jobs but how and where with the promise to grow revenue? >> challenge is to create topline while cutting costs at the same time. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> this is bloomberg best. let's continue our global tour of the week's top business stories, in new york where j.p. morgan chase announced his plans to build a brand-new headquarters. >> j.p. morgan chase is getting a new address. bank isest u.s. consolidating its near city offices in 15,000 workers and into a new headquarters on park avenue. the announcement came this morning in a joint statement with jamie dimon and the mayor bill de blasio. >> there terry down their current headquarters which was built in the 50's and 60's and was meant for a much smaller staff. they will build that up and build a sleek new modern tower that is about twice the size. this will be about getting all of their people into one spot -- right now to have that building
-- the old bear stearns buildings, this is going to be a major project that they're going to tear down the building starting next year and it is going to be five years of construction. so if you are for j.p. morgan you will be spread out into other offices for the next years but then you have a new tower to come back to. a some ways it is leaving present for his successor. it will be done by the time he is about to step down five years now. his commitment to new york in a big way. >> germany's largest bank is cutting at least 250 jobs globally at its corporate and investment bank, deutsche bank is trying to limit expenses. deep, theyuld run could be over 500 layoffs on the past few weeks. they're in locations including london and the u.s.. >> the challenge is to increase
tom price and cutting costs at the same time, obviously it was in the conundrum. we have to keep in mind that a effort at of deutsche bank to cut costs. i think what people need to look out for is what is happening at the management level. there is a bit of a struggle therebetween the forces that want to cut costs on the one side and the ones that want to invest and expand the investment bank on the other side. it is hard to reconcile those two forces and we will have to see how it plays out in the future. >> this spending bill raises taxes in an effort to avoid another credit downgrade. take personal to and of the reforms required.
in theiving direction economy. i think they're going to do just not only to stay bought a downgrade but also to realize that there is change in the outlook in the s&p. >> siemens is planning new health care. this has been a long time coming. this is something that i spoke to them about many times. i wanted one is part of the business was coming to the market. we finally get news today. it will be one of the largest ipos in europe. a 40 billion about relations. also part of this broader team we are seeing across europe and even globally of these
really big public in conglomerates with businesses everywhere, simplifying and saying what are we good at and let's focus on that. planning they is trade deal she would like to achieve in brazen negotiations, britain will seek to stay close to the eu will look in some areas while breaking away from others. we learnederg scoop that if britain doesn't get the deal it is prepared to hold back how youxit payments, connection to this is illegal. >> there is a chance that this kind of protest statement from disruptionsld cause of your. what we do know is that britain has a contingency plan if at 2019point in 21 or 2020 or
after brexit has after taken place, that you doesn't -- does on of those promises. the ukip thinks the bible option would be to hold back the payments and the money it is already promised. >> apple is moving to security supply chain. the company is in talks with cobalt mines to buy the metal directly from the with no middlemen. couldis worried that it threaten his own supply which it needs for its iphone and i plans. >> apple has never gone threaten and bought cobalt directly from minors before. it has never had to because the market is quiet, backward, a pretty tiny market in the global current is world. there has never been a question about whether they would have enough. the supplyto secure chain. how likely are they be able to do it? >> if they are willing to pay up
then there are plenty of companies to have plenty of planning increases in supply and no doubt that is the right place. a deal could be done. griese a space rocket carrying spacesatellites went into from the california coast. smaller test's allies for a system that would provide internet access to remote regions. talk to me how potentially be this can be and how important it might be to tesla in the future. tesla and spacex merging together is a tantalizing idea. absolutelys will happen, there is a tremendous amount of technology overlap, both companies are committed to seeing ai and machine learning develop and incorporate those technologies into their respective businesses. this business is actually a great business.
when you look down into the future and call it 25, it is a business that could dramatically improve tesla's revenues and operating profits. >> we caught up with a treasury secretary steve mnuchin who is not worried about rising prices and growing debt. mnuchin said that there are a lot of ways to grow the economy. you can have wage inflation and not necessarily have inflation concerns in general area here comes some insight from jeff. check out these tweets, i'll run it for both of them. raise wagesl without inflation. and will expand about the armies without aching them bigger. then he said if inflation is no before wages, it is not bond owners. can you get the wage growth without inflation? >> you need productivity, that has been talked about a lot.
♪ ♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg best. the past two weeks have given the fomc a lot to chew on with inflationrprising spike, rising bond yields and turbulence in the stock market. this week, boomer international and economics policy correspondent stepped down for exclusivity to do with the minneapolis fed president. he says he doesn't think one month of data should change the policy. >> i don't want to overreact to one job report that showed the wage increases of 2.9% or the
latest numbers. we don't want to dismiss the data but i also don't want to inrreact to one month lives the data. we had to look you over happening and see if inflation is actually believes what our target. almost 10is, for years that that has been undershooting orientation target. we keep saying inflation is right around the and then disappoint us. my reaction has been let's take our time, allow inflation to come to us. we have very powerful tools to keep inflation from getting too high. we have very limited tools if inflation is too low. i have been saying let's let the inflation come to us. >> but just reacting to inflation with is powerful tools can have side effects the markets. we have a jumpy wall street these days. if you saw inflation breakout are you concerned you would see to the fed overreact moving more quickly? >> wall street over asked to everything. the overreact to the upside, the downside, we can make policy
based on market blip up and down. congress has said that her dual mandate is stable prices and we try to achieve those all -- in the long-term. wall street will do what wall street will do. >> if they do that, it could have an effect on the economies. wall street said that that will step in because they don't want a collapse in business or consumer confidence if the markets go down too much. do think that is still in place? >> would you care about manages stability and we know there is a feedback mechanism just like there is a feedback mechanism through the currency markets on the u.s. economy. but we have to that are not targeting currencies, we know there is a feedback loop. we do have to pay attention to it occurred to his or the stock market but we are not sitting here trying to engineer a certain level of the stock market and obviously we want to avoid crises. so to me, i tried to
differentiate a stock market crashing which did not lead to a financial crisis. from the 2008 housing bus was duly to a financial crisis. we have to work very hard to try to prevent crisis but within that we should allow markets to move up and down. schiffan stanley's adam produce more pain for the stock market. we look ahead to italy's elections in frederick expects europe's economy to keep expanding but as for the number bags, that is a different story. long-term, yes. >> this is bloomberg. ♪
>> these are thin ice things. you never know. >> did you report that hint? >> no. >> why not? >> that is a good question because usually come at you think, ok, maybe i misunderstood. back in latvia, the most important thing is we have nothing to do with commercial banking supervision. guy: i am curious to know why you didn't. merest whiff- the saympropriety -- you could that you had reported it. >> if i were to know that this thing was going to develop like
it has been developing, i regret that i did not do that. that was latvia's central deniedvernor ilmars who corruption allegations against him this week speaking exclusively with bloombergs guy johnson. staying with european finance, rhetoric joined bloomberg daybreak: americas this week for a wide-ranging conversation. he spoke about the future of europe's banking sector. >> the most important thing for -- beyond theind long-term opportunity, we are going to complete the banking union. are long-term opportunities and we can take advantage of them. on top of this, the economic activity is good in europe. we have growth rates like we have not seen for maybe the last
10 years of across the eurozone. that is an opportunity for banks and hopefully we will see rates rising. we have's -- we have suffered dramatically from negative rates. ratee a much better environment. >> it is not just the steeper curve. what is your best case for that? assumption, the strategic plan was that progressively in 2019 the negative rate territory would exist. with growth rates at 2.3% or 2.4% for the next two years for the eurozone, normally you should see lower unemployment rate and higher inflation on wages. i think this is much better and the monetary -- the central banks would like to exit the policy progressively to avoid an asset bubble or a distortion on prices.
>> as you look forward to a banking union, does that mean socgen has to get bigger? what do you anticipate? the unionpletion of would be at the top of the agenda of the governments. there will be discussions on what will be the next step for the eurozone, particularly on the banking union. long-term, i think you will have less banks. investors had a lot of news to keep their eyes on this week. rising yields for u.s. treasuries, mixed economic data from the u.k. and europe and best it is of volatility from the recent corrections. let us revisit some the most interesting conversations about adamarkets starting with scheetz who said a february selloff in stocks was "the appetizer, and not the main course." possible to be as
precise as you would like to be around these things but when i look at the forecast, you really overlapping themes that crossover in the second quarter. you will have inflation picking up, not just in the u.s. but in the eurozone and in japan. at the thing time, i think that we think a number of activity indicators including global economic indices are going to be moderating. and so, it is not necessarily that it is going to be a recession or a sharp slowdown but that the rising inflation numbers will seem potentially more worrying when the economic data is not as strong as it has been. >> that is a fair point. they look at the 10 year and they say 3% or 3.5%. i have a chart here on the bloomberg. 82 basisght around
points. what do you think is the breaking point in the equity market when it comes to yields? andrew: you cannot be too precise about a breaking point. i like this chart quite a bit because i think real rates, the interest rate over and above inflation, is probably the most important rate when it comes to thinking about equity markets and discounting cash flows. for all that has happened in the last five years and all of the shifts in market thinking about growth, inflation and stagflation, we have actually been at a steady range for these long run real yields, long-run expectations for where policy will be. of we are now at the top end the rage. while breaking out of it does not guarantee anything, it does suggest something different. the difference is something the market may have to assign a higher discount rate for and we are not expecting any more
multiple expansion at of the equity market. it has to be earnings driven from here. at developedok market, we think the u.s. and ahlstrom get are the most right now on a relative basis. this is a story where the rest of the world is catching up. years behind the economic cycle and their economy is finally picking up. we think the ecb will gradually taper their balance sheets and we ultimately think japan which 0% for tenure rates could ultimately move that target upwards. start toher economies gradually pick up their growth rates, we should see their bond yields rise and the spread between u.s. and those rates narrow. overall, what it highlights is it u.s. treasury market looks attractive relative to germany, the u.k., and japan.
>> what about peripheral spreads in the eurozone? are they underpricing risk at the moment? >> what has happened, since 2012 and 2013, we have seen a significant tightening in those peripheral spreads. that has been a result as a -- that has been a result from massive bank support from the ecb. we have -- the issue we have now is that the spreads are quite tight. in italy, the peripheral spreads are at risk of a widening. as a function of how tight the spreads are, we are more cautious at those levels. that all oforried this ultracheap monetary policy has taken away the risk that we see in italy and therefor in italian politics? , yes.some extent
the ecb made an extremely smart monetary policy and president draghi has been very smart in mastering the support for qe. and he still has that support. i personally believe that with quickering out would be rather than slower and among the facts that would explain why the issued sopromises liberally and irresponsibly by all of the political parties, one of the reasons is that there is no feeling of pressure whatsoever. >> what would reality look like? is there a real danger that reforms will be slow with whoever becomes the next prime minister in italy? there are a lot of parties offering tax cuts in italy. >> a positive to be put on
record first of all is that no party, populist or not, has any longer in the program the idea of leaving the euro, calling a referendum to leave the euro, they have all come down. of, indeed, the issuance costly promises is virtually limitless. what will happen? concerned that these promises will be honored. luckily, they will not be honored. but, what will be the explanation of the parties which have promised so much, the day that they have to cut down on the promises. the culprit would be europe because european constraints would not allow the banks to fully deliver on the promises. ♪
♪ shery: you're watching "bloomberg best." i am shery ahn. earnings season is in high gear. our roundup begins with results from europe's largest bank. >> the final set of results from hsbc. not quite the swan song he had hoped for. europe's largest bank is fourth-quarter numbers that are down. this -- is this the legacy of sir gulliver or is this a blip? >> i think it is a blip. this did not come through in the fourth quarter. >> the fourth quarter from our perspective in the industry was a little weaker which respect to
global markets, particularly in the ficc space. and we also took some provisions for corporate exposures in the fourth quarter. that is the future of the fourth quarter. a couple of things on the unexpected front including charges and lower revenues in the quarter from the same business. walmart shares are dragging down the dow jones industrial. investors are worried that e-commerce growth is slowing. why can't walmart satisfy shareholders these days no matter what it does? including plowing money into new operations. investors do not seem to be happy. is true. they sure are hard to please right now. walmart had sizzling growth in the last three quarters of plus 50% in e-commerce and then we saw a drop off.
the 23% growth they did post is not that bad compared to a lot of their competitors. it is outpacing the retail industry's online growth overall but investors are worried that perhaps the honeymoon is over. maybe the executive that has been spearheading this -- maybe his magic is over. shares areiton taking a hit. it is devasting from its $10 billion shale units. -- from its 10 billion shale units. bits will put all of these together and figure out how to go forward by the middle of the year. >> once those asset sales go through, what proportion could investors expect to get returned to them? >> i think it is too early to say. what we have been able to do is take the debt into safe haven
territory. between $10 billion and $15 billion. we will continue to pay it down to the lower level of that range. once that is done, we have been clear that our capital will not exceed $8 million and the rest can be returned to shareholders in some form or another. assets pay ancan annual dividend of $1.02 per share. that is after the global mining giant reported its adjusted .arnings per share that was a little light compared to what the market had expected. asian recovery complete. >> no. we have established some very firm foundations with the improvements. we have reduced assets by 47% but reduction is up 9%. return on capital employed, 19%
against a starting quarter of 9%. there are still a lot of opportunities in the next 3-5 years. still a lot more work to be done but we are pleased with where we are today. 2008,ty like it is glencore. the world's largest miner reporting its largest -- in decades. cash still -- it still has to spare. the ceo saying -- we are generating -- on commodity prices with room to do any acquisitions." i guess it depends on what they are spending the cash on. i think most investors are very happy with this state of glencore's balance sheet. they surprised investors with the dividend. they still have a headwind to do deals if they want to.
berg has -- glasenberg has given himself room. saw profitsny tumble 44%. why is the company struggling when we see a different story with the majors? story of chinaa trying to curb pollution. what we saw over the last year is a real shift in the chinese iron or markets. the quality helps you to maximize outputs. it also helps steel mills comply with the mandates to cut emissions. --t is boosting the likes of and rio tinto. fortescue typically sells a
product that is below the benchmark grade. there is an ever widening discount for those products. and the results translate into profit results. recorded record -- the u.k.-based maker of painkillers says it is time to take revenue growth to 13% or 14% for the year. 2017 was a tough year. where we had macros. twong the year, we made transformations. we sold our food business were a good price. result, 50% of our business comes from higher margins and higher growth. 2018, ik forward to
think it is going to be a better year. and that is how we are guiding the market today. -- giving more money to shareholders. back asier will buy much as 378 million aussie dollars of shares. and has announced a seven sent a share dividend. that is on top of the money returned to investors from late 2015. and pleasing is that all parts of the business are performing well. we had a record result for qantas domestic. and from the jet star group and qantas loyalty and our international was down slightly but we have a huge change to that business that will be implemented next year and we are expecting a significant improvement in its performance all things being equal next year. across the board, we had
pleasing results. and today, our shareholders and customers and employees have all benefited from those results. >> hewlett-packard enterprise and hp ink reporting earnings. hp boosting its full-year forecast beating estimates and hp ink topped estimates with a strong computer and printer sales in the holiday shopping season. what is driving these results? >> a few things. we have to unpack them because were a long time hbe talked about being better together and this quarter they were better a part. that are two companies have stronger ability to be their and to resize infrastructure, particularly in the case of hpe. , the parentof hpi company, it is a company performing on all cylinders. they are in a market that is flat for pc's. nominally flat for printing and
treasury futures to be trading lower because yields are rising. when yields rise, treasury bonds trade down. are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and ourlways enjoy showing you favorites on bloomberg television and maybe they will become your favorites also. this will lead you to our quick takes where you can get important context and fast insight into timely topics. here's a quick take from this week. americans own more guns than anyone else on earth. firearms are involved in the deaths of more than 33,000 people in the u.s. annually. every time another mass shooting occurs in the u.s., it sparks government over gun ownership rights. here is the situation. a 2017, pro-gun advocates got boost when republicans got control of the white house and both houses of congress.
they rolled back a rule from president obama that was aimed at preventing people with serious mental health problems from buying guns. the joint resolution is passed. >> that was just the most recent time congress has dealt with gun restrictions. in 2013, congress defeated a bill to expand background checks just months after a mass shooting took place at sandy hook elementary school in newtown, connecticut where 20 children were killed. in the u.s., 25 children a week are killed by bullet wounds. in 2013, the democratic -- have expanded done restriction. the majority of states have weakened restrictions and many permit guns now in more places like schools, restaurants, churches, and public buildings. all 50 states allow people to carry weapons that are concealed from public view in many states have expanded rights to use guns in self-defense.
the original gun law is almost as old as the country itself. the second amendment right was established in the 18th century to allow states to form militias to protect themselves against the federal government. in 2008, the screen court ruled that the amendment protected the rights of individuals, not gun militias. 310 million guns are now thought to be in private hands. the national rifle association and its allies argued that gun relations -- gun regulations only hurt law-abiding gun owners because criminals ignore them. violent crime in america has 2004n significantly since and fatal and nonfatal shootings have also declined. gun control advocates meanwhile say limiting weapons would drive down gun related crime and they point to all still you where strict gun ownership laws were enacted after a historic
massacre in 1996. since then there have been zero -- shootings. try to tightenns or loosen gun laws from one administration to the next, u.s. citizens continue to be caught in the middle of this legislative gunfight. ♪ just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them on bloomberg.com along with all that the latest bloomberg is this news and analysis 24 hours a day. that is all for "bloomberg best" this week. i am shery ahn. this is bloomberg. ♪
every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. ♪ show me the olympic winter games ♪ leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. ♪ like i've never seen before. ♪ ♪ xfinity x1, yeah, i always know the scor♪. ♪ triple corks in 4k... lookin' so sick. ♪ ♪ stream live on every screen, every win, every trick. ♪ ♪ 2000 hours of coverage, get your mind blown. ♪ 50 olympic channels, yup, you're in the zone. ♪ ♪ and if there's something that you want to see, ♪ pick up that voice remote and just say "show me..." ♪ experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the olympic winter games like never before with xfinity. proud partner of team usa. ♪ alisa: i'm alisa parenti in washington, and you are watching "bloomberg technology." let's start with a check of your first word news. president trump took a victory lap before an admiring crowd at the annual conservative political action conference.
he also warned the u.s. constitutional rights will be in jeopardy if the democrats regain control of congress. president trump: they will take away those massive tax cuts, and they will take away your second amendment. by the way, if you only had a choice of one, what would you rather have? second amendment or tax cuts? go ahead. second amendment. tax cuts. second amendment. i'm going to leave it at the second amendment. i don't want to get in that battle. alisa: the white house says it