tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 28, 2018 1:00am-2:30am EST
manus: a very good morning and welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we are live from the forum in abu dhabi. we are global. these are your top stories. powell impact. the new fed chairman opens the four timessing rates this year. china's manufacturing gauge fell the most in five years. tory rebellion grows. the conservative party lawmakers back a move to keep ties between the u.k. and eu after brexit.
♪ very warm welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." by mliv at the forum -- i am live in upper darby -- abu dhabi. things have changed since christmas. these are the markets. s&p rallied nearly 7%. stocks are lower and they are rattled by the message from the fed. the market is repricing four rate hikes. york, they took the hawkish tone to heart and they smacked stocks. the u.s. has explosive growth in terms of their oil. the u.k. is exporting oil again.
it is a net exporter. bnp paribas saying that you could have opec and shall coming -- shell coming together in terms of doing a deal. the market is pricing four rate hikes for 2018. can dejaon is, are we vu -- are we in deja vu? discussed what came through on the market very shortly. the consumer is confident, so confident that he has not been since the year 2000. consumer confidence is the highest since 2000, but when they asked those participants how bullish are you on stocks in january -- the last time that we
saw a drop like this in terms of the american investors attitude to stocks was march 2007. the market went on to drop another 3.5%. states% of the united actually owns american equities directly. this is a different market structurally to the your 2007 -- year 2007. those are the markets. the birds have the high ground at the moment. juliette saly holds the high ground with the first word from singapore. juliette: and the u.k. a conservative party -- conservative party lawmakers have backed an amendment calling for britain to keep close ties to the european union after it leaves the bloc. it is enough to potentially wipe out theresa may's slim majority. they want to keep britain in a
customs union after brexit and the number has risen in the days since the amendment was published. more could still add their names. jared kushner has lost his top-secret white house security clearance. he can no longer attend some meetings of the national security council, see the president's daily brief, or war related intelligence. this raises questions about how it will affect his role as trump's main middle east peace negotiator. the white house has said that nothing has changed in how he will be able to fulfill his multiple roles. china's official manufacturing gauge fell the most in five years in february. the manufacturing pmi dropped and missed estimates. top officials are gathering this link to reshape the government -- this week to reshape the government and adjust term
limits. fell theactory output most in seven years in january. industrial production contracted 6.6%. that is the biggest drop since march of 2011. output fell across all sectors, with cars performing especially poorly. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . here in asia we have a followed that lead from wall street following jerome powell's commentary. you have seen markets across the board lower. strength reduced its purchases today. markets in hong kong are particularly under pressure.
chinese stocks listed in hong kong are on track for a drop come up making them the worst benchmark in the world. let's have a look at some of the stocks that we have been watching. yahoo! japan following in tokyo, the biggest drop in more than one year. it is saying it could buy shares back. rakuten is rising in tokyo after plans to launch a cryptocurrency. over all is looking -- it is looking like the worst drop for asian stocks in february. manus: investors sought a hawkish -- saw a hawkish tone from jerome powell.
we have been seeing treasury yields spike overnight. the new fed chair opens the door for four rate hikes in 2018. the strength of the u.s. economy gave policymakers confidence. >> my personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since december. each member of the fmo see is going to be right -- fomc is going to be writing down no projections -- new projections. what we have seen is incoming data that is suggesting continuing straight in the economy -- strength in the economy. in my case it as confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. havel policy changes can on affect and changes of this size can have an effect. that can be seen in the policy.
flattening of yield curves in the past has been a precursor of largely because in many prior recessions the fed had to raise rates quickly to hold inflation down. that is not the situation that we have now. manus: he went on to observe that accelerating u.s. expansion is occurring in the context of context of a moment of global growth. ,e have ben gutteridge with us head of fund research at brewin dolphin limited. powell'sare jerome accelerated confidence in the economy? ben: yes we do. i don't think there is anything startling coming up powell's accelerated from december and now. i think it is further commerce confirmationher
that the u.s. economy is in good shape. the labor markets are very strong. the obvious catalyst is that the tax reform has come through. the republicans have spent on defense. it looks like a very generous fiscal package. the u.s. economy is in very good shape. ur rate hikes, that falls into line with that type of economic cap -- path. manus: mortgage rates are up. have a look at this. you have got the chart in front of you. this is looking at the underbelly of consumer confidence, in terms of the optimism of your average u.s.
consumer. this was before the volatility rebound. the last time that we saw this kind of momentous drop in optimism was back in 2007. i just wonder whether powell is right about this spill over affect been limited -- being limited. reservehink the federal -- we don't expect a change from powell. we will be acutely -- by what is happening in the housing market. we have seen a tightening in financial conditions. indeed we have seen a bit of a disappointment in new home sales. there is potentially a link ,here the higher interest rates
higher mortgage rates, less energy and vibrancy in the housing market -- it is only a solitary data point. house builders still remain very optimistic going into the future. many mortgages in the u.s., the vast majority of u.s. mortgages are tied into 30 year rates, and all of those deals have been done on lower rates. ,ess sensitive, if you like versus the u.k. economy, for example, to policy rate moves. -- thethat combined housing market we still think is a good shape. despite the tightening of financial conditions, we do not think it is going to pinch the consumer like it might do in the u.k. manus: we have got a rerun of the slate. i am just looking at some of the payments that were made. 500.ve got the s&p
puts over calls were the most expensive in two years. would you be a buyer of any protection? would you buy some gold? be confident you spending any money on the risk of an inflation spike in an to drop -- and an equity drop? ben: it is worthwhile having hedges against the various risks that are out there. certainly an inflationary spike is not beyond the realms of possibility. in january, the average area earnings certainly got hairs running. hedges.eed some potentially some gold, although
the correlation between gold and short-term inflation of us are not a perfect match. indeed equities are reasonable hedge -- are a reasonable hedge against inflation. inflationiew is that does not run away. you should not be leaning into assets that will perform well in an inflationary shock. you need some exposure there, but i do not think they should be dominating the portfolio. stay with us., bonds are backed from their height -- high. morning.s looking for direction, stocks are lower. coverage stays with the daybreak team. there is much more to talk about.
of singapore. jerome powell clearly communicated to the market that he views the u.s. economy as strong. oil is up. juliette saly is standing by. juliette: the u.s. commerce u.s. --nt has -- from from aluminum in china. 49% --.ped the trump administration also 81%.uties of 17 to asplans to buy back as much 1.3 5 billion euros of shares over the next two years. that is after the hotel operator agreed to sell a majority of its
stake. amazon has agreed to buy connected doorbell startup ringgit for about -- ring for about $1 billion. on then advised ring sale. amazon has been pushing for a bigger presence in homes through connected devices. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus? china's data came out today for manufacturers. it fell the most in five years in february. the data jones a growing list of challenges facing equity bulls across the region and hong kong -- in hong kong.
jittery markets have made the hang seng the world's worst performing index this month. when you look at the data and you have had time to reflect, does it raise a bigger risk and a bigger? about the velocity of china's growth? queses it raise a bigger of mark about the velocity china's growth? >> i think there is an acknowledgment amongst businesses and investors that policymakers are showing no signs of pulling back from their campaign, but also these pollution curbs. there was some lunar new year distortion in this data.
we should wait until next month to get a better rating on this. -- reading on this. it seems that the continued ,lowdown is to be expected because policymakers are showing no sign of wanting to pull back from this de-risking. manus: it is interesting, isn't it? i am looking at the latest survey that we released here at bloomberg. responders there is a 10% chance of a recession. tie that back to the pboc. we're going to be a new governor. what is the priority for that governor? is it latitude in terms of bank reserves? where do you think the direction of the pboc might lie? >> i think it is two things. formerpeaking to a
adviser of the pboc and he said that risk is clearly front and center for the pboc, and the regulators more broadly. we saw this on they took on broadcom. they are concerned about a growing rate differential. -- i shouldkish lee say they are squarely focused on what is happening with the fed. they're trying to match that to some degree without squeezing growth too much. that is the balance that they are trying to strike. manus: in terms of how janet , we are going to hear more about that terrorists -- tariff prospect in the coming month. how do you think janet is going to respond? >> some have said that these s imposed by- tariff washington are --.
the chinese are trying to dial back these tensions. it is interesting to see as of this week actually removed some on u.s.they had imposed chicken imports into china. it seems like washington is not buying that. the trump administration seems to have a further -- have further tariifs up their sleeve. manus: tom thank you very much. when you look at the chinese market and you look at this data, this is not what everybody at davos was talking about. how unsettling is this data for you this morning? >> it is unsettling. it is not good news. i have to say, not what we are
at anticipating -- i have to say, we were not anticipating this level of a drop. we have some concerns about the chinese outlook in the short-term. xi jinping was extremely serious about tackling the imbalances in the chinese economy. we already mentioned the shadow banking system, the environmental challenges, but also corruption. the appointments that were made to the various supervisory intent to tackle those challenges. we did expect a bit of short-term pain come all of course for the prospect of sustainable growth in the long term -- pain, all of course for the prospect of sustainable growth in the long-term. comingas some weakness
and therefore the manufacturing pmi, a decent correlation with that would have been expected to slow. not fantastic news for global demand in the short-term, but i would not have thought it would have been too much of a surprise about the direction. perhaps the magnitude is something that the markets have not liked. bloomberg economics has what is called the --. this could be a drag on the deleveraging story. i am just wondering when we are going to hear the cries on the yuan. if you've got a drag on the yuan, it isand the going to rise in terms of the word count, isn't it? >> i would have thought there was some room for maneuvering in the dollar.
it has been exceptionally weak in 2017 and indeed in this year. not son appreciation is dramatic. growth challenges are alleviated by better export data. the yuan would help facilitate that. we do not think that the competitiveness of chinese goods would be eroded by modest dollar appreciation from here. yes, it could creep into the narrative, but we do not believe it is a story for the immediate future. the last time there was an execution of policy to devalue the currency it really got markets frightened. manus: indeed. it really did spook the horses. we have a little bit more to get through. we will talk brexit next.
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it is a live shot of singapore. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." welcome back. you're looking at a live shot of the emperors thousand tokyo. you have dollar-yen at the bottom of your screen. the yen is taking action to pull back from some of their longer-term on the purchases. we have breaking news for you. they are going to be the world's biggest seed maker. this is transforming what is the world's biggest drugmaker into the world's biggest seed maker. the $66 billion purchase of
monsanto. let me give you some of the numbers coming through from buyers as well. 35.3, 9.29 come might be a little bit lighter than the market had estimated. adjusted.ce for 2018 core earnings will be at the prior year level. they talked about a slight increase in terms of their numbers, but nothing dramatic coming through from bayer. you might have to wait a little bit longer for transformational numbers to come through, but the monsantois that the closing may be delayed until the second quarter of this year. that is the key that the market wanted to know. this does not affect our expectation of a successful
conclusion. we are going to have a conversation. he will explain the deal and the regulatory issues surrounding that deal. nejra cehic is setting up your market flow for you. nejra: we have a little bit of a hawkish tilt from fed chair jerome powell. weakcombined with manufacturing data out of china, that is having an impact on dollar-yen. all of this together -- asian equities taking a little bit of in the session. there are pretty broad based losses across the region. the worst-performing gauge in this session is the hang seng index. that is down more than 2%.
after having its best month in january, it is now set for its best for the worst loss globally -- for the worst loss globally in february. times is one way to look at it for the hang seng china enterprises index. i mentioned the hawkish tilt from jerome powell. that has reverberated across markets. the 10 year9% on treasury yields. we saw curves flattening and we saw an impact on the dollar. its 2017 lowtrading above once again. it had an impact on gold and copper. i am looking at oil here. perhaps some of the losses are down to eight stronger dollar -- to a stronger dollar, but it
also has to do with the fundamentals. we could see oil takes a more losses. we have some slightly concerning e.a. aboutrom the i. shale production. manus? manus: thank you very much. just getting a little bit of breaking news coming through. we have some numbers from one of the biggest lenders in eastern europe. you saw the czech republic raise the rates. input one 3s 1.31 billion euros. they are the second largest lender in europe.
we are getting ready for a confirmation in terms of eu policy or central-bank in europe. it is going to be interesting in terms of where they go next, because everything is set to change on the interest rate landscape if you believe the market reprice that you have their. we are going to speak to the ceo te group.s there are eight conservative party lawmakers that have backed an amendment calling for the u.k. to keep close ties to the european union after brexit, and attempts to reverse theresa may's policy. it could threaten her political survival. a number of lawmakers who want to -- want britain to stay in
the customs union. ben gutteridge is in our studio in love -- london. divisions are becoming more apparent. today we are going to get the european response to the uk's brexit calls. if you read that, there is not much distance between eight and a fully fledged rebellion, and political hubris. ben: that is right. i think it is going to be fascinating, exciting, were to see if worrying this becomes a vote of confidence. those rebels may ultimately bring about the demise of their party and their leader. what is fascinating is that really sterling has not taken fright at this stage.
forces at play. one would be the softer brexit narrative that would come with rebellion, coupled with the more figure it -- pre-figured and opening of rebellion, couply from the labour party, which may be the incoming new leadership. that is not something that i think markets would necessarily enjoy it, but the softer brexit is something that sterling would benefit from in the short-term. the market is really caught between these two issues. manus: yeah. we got a nice story this morning. extent then machinations of what barnier said about the snow of snake oil
-- the smell of snake oil is very much priced into the market. many people would say that this is the theater of brexit. what are your clients saying in terms of you can accept -- u.k. assets? are they trimming back? it has got the commodities, the banks, so it has a couple of different facets going for it, doesn't it? ben: it does. excitingot have the growth companies of the u.s. and parts of europe, and certainly asia. that has been a bit of a disappointment relative to global markets. but you are right, it has this energy component. i think that is the -- the oil price as well is well supported. it does have some cheapness. it merits some of that discount.
does, in most sectors, does merit some attention. i think the stock market is reasonably priced in that regard. manus: where do you stand with the bank of england? the market has repriced the bank of england as well. i have never heard such a of gilts andcing many years -- in many years. ben: of i think we are a littlet more but nine it -- benign on gilts. hawkishet has been more than we were anticipating.
it has come from a position of great concern about brexit. not ignoring that, but it has less emphasis in their analysis now. they are focusing much more on labor markets, which look extremely healthy. that tightness in the labor market is something that the bank of england are talking more about, and therefore there has been this repricing. whether the bank of england can follow through on interest rate hikes is something that we would question. we do not see much pressure on wages. given the brexit uncertainty, it does not look as though foreign investment is likely to accelerate meaningfully. whilst the rhetoric may be difficult for the credibility, i think that would be the maximum this year -- credibility, to do one rate hike, i think that would be the maximum this year.
growth is a little bit more obvious in the global market. manus: thank you very much for being with us. ben gutteridge from our queen victoria headquarters. we are going to talk about oil. i am here in abu dhabi. we've got a couple of things going on. we've got the booming shale market and supply. america is pumping out a record level and threatening the group's efforts to curb the glutton. we are joined by yousef gamal el-din. it is important to point out that he is going to be dining with shale producers.
this is the last frontier when it comes to the broader effort to bring everybody under one umbrella. he created this new framework. he brought in saudi arabia, brought in russia when russia was not on board the beginning. whatsoever benefit in a world that is drowning in oil. the expectation here is for a b uild, which will be the fourth week in five >>. manus: you have spoken to the president of of recently -- opec recently. do you think it is a distant dream? >> he has proven time and time again that he is able to bring people on the table and have a
conversation, and get deals done. he brought in russia when nobody thought russia was going to be on board. more permanent fixture in this broader agreement. manus: let's talk about the politics of the region. talk about geopolitics. we understand that the prince spoke with trump last night. give me the geopolitical landscape? >> he has been speaking to the u.s. president. we are talking about some of the security details in the region. they did not give a very clear readout of what they spoke about.
they see it rising threat from iran. i want to get your perspective about this global tort from the crown prince -- tour from the crown prince. he is going to egypt and london. he is going to the united states as well. we might get a fresh tone in foreign policy. manus: let's see what happens. yousef, thank you so much. for bloomberg markets middle east. we are going to be speaking to the former u.s. treasury secretary. he joins us here in abu dhabi. coming up, this is what we have got for you.
there is a new emboldened, upbeat mr. powell in charge of the fed. the economy, in his opinion come has changed since december -- opinion, has changed since december. this is the agenda. it is about michelle barnier. they are expected to adopt the withdrawal text, which will be published. we've got europewide inflation data for february. will we be under 1%? it is fourth-quarter gdp out of the united states of america. consumers are as confident as they have been since the year 2000. -- that wasld goat a while ago.
here's juliette saly with your business flash. bayer said that it expects to close its deal for months and so -- monsanto later this year. the company thinks that the deal will probably be completed in the second quarter. farming a portfolio of vegetable sees has emerged -- seeds has emerged. u.s. commerce department has slapped duties on aluminum foil from china after concluding that the country's producers are receiving unfair subsidies and dumping the products in the american market. on duties will be imposed chinese aluminum foil for selling the products in the u.s. below fair market value. the trump administration se
duties for the unfair advantage that chinese producers receive. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: europe's largest conference is underway in germany. matt miller is over there. good morning to you, matt. i am here with the ceo of invest europe, michael collins. i am going to talk to him about how the -- this year is different from last year. how much has the climate changed? we have had this protectionist rhetoric out of the u.s. we have had brexit negotiations start to get rolling. do you expect 2018 to be a lot different from 2017? is goingi think 2018
to be at least as good as 2017. over the last four years the private equity in europe has been raised. right now these political headwinds that we were worried about last year really do not seem to have had any kind of negative impact on either fundraising or the investment climate here in europe. matt: everyone was expecting so much more protectionist legislation out of the u.s. this push for a hard brexit, but it seems like a transition period will be an inevitable -- will be inevitable. michael: i think there were concerns last year that 2017 was going to be a year of egg political turmoil -- real
political turmoil. mainstream,e got centrist governments elected. if you look at those election results from last year, parties on the far left and far rate did -- far right did well. we have collections across the electionshe eu -- across the whole of the eu. they are in danger of politicians been collected at the e.u. coming from some of those extreme parties. bute thatot have the we feared -- bites that we feared, but i do not think we are out of the woods yet. right now brexit is the top
issue for people. we have helped our members understand what the possible implications might be in the u.k. the challenge that they have all got is that we do not really have much more clarity here in 2018 than we had in 2017. a little bit of progress was made at the end of last year on the big three aspects of the uk's divorce settlement, but we still do not know for sure what kind of transition arrangements will be put in place, how long they will last, and how comprehensive they will be. the private equity industry is pretty good at adapting to all caps a different scenarios come but right now members in europe are having to spend a lot of time that they could spend on portfolio development on trying to navigate a whole range of different brexit scenarios. where hopeful that we might actually start to get some real
progress that will enable people to make concrete decisions about how they are going to develop brexit contingency planning. matt: one of the more -- most important aspects of that is where they actually are. do you see already a lot of private equity investors moving out of london? michael: you hear a whole range of different responses to brexit. there are certainly some that have already -- that are established -- that have established a new entity. some of them have beefed up an existing presence in that country. they want to be able to continue to market, so they have gone through the process of getting a passport and license. many are taking gate wait and
see approach -- taking a wait-and-see approach. there is a big group in the middle who have not yet actuated a brexit contingency plan, but are doing a lot of thinking, and drawing of a lot of scenarios. we have not seen a max exodus from london, and i do not think we will see a max exodus from london. excellent to get your perspective. michael vick is so much for joining us -- michael thank you so much for joining us. europe, michael collins. enus: coming up, we have the rste group ceo. an initially hawkish
a very good morning. i am manus cranny. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe and these are today's top stories. the new fed chairman opens the door to raising rates four times this year. asian stocks are lower following the u.s. foiled. china's manufacturing gauge for the most in five years. the u.s. slaps duties on the second-largest economy. -- conservative party lawmakers back a move to keep close ties between the u.s. and the -- the u.k. and the eu after brexit. ♪
manus: let me get you this bank in terms of the numbers. rubles, in light of what 745.9cket had penciled in billion. we saw the flow of money back into the russian banks and in january that was one of the big market drivers, net interest income at 5 trillion rubles. next interest income, that was the full-year. the fourth quarter at [indiscernible] i nice beat on the estimates which were 385 .6. the provision for low losses at
72. that is down from the estimate out there in the market. last year, $27 million fluid to hedge funds. the markets believed that is where you wanted to be, active versus passive. investment positive move. $10.7 billion. a dividend of 7.8 cents a share. funds under management at 109.1 billion. pretax profits on an adjusted million.etax at $384 and have they turned around, flowing inet revenue $12.8 billion. in terms of the oil markets, we them deliver. let me give you the headline on red soft -- we are waiting for
the numbers across the bloomberg. i will bring them to you. let me show you the futures. and they're down off the highs of the day. equity markets are rising, cpi is coming out on the european market. what does that mean for mario draghi in terms of core inflation? for thethe issue central bank. french gdp comes out later in the day. what will the european response ?eef -- me to the brexit s&p futures are lower. four rate hikes are priced in. three rate hikes are priced in.
s&p futures are lower. jay powell said he is confident about the economy, s&p futures are a little bit lower. 10-year government bond yields at -- are lower. where do we go in terms of the rerun of a, is it a rerun of a rerun? at peak in inflation and anticipation on those inflation numbers. the consequence of that would be is the bond market take the [indiscernible] income, thested net market had looked for $2.21 billion. it is all about debt. we caught up with bob dudley. ebitda fromr repsol, 6.7 billion euros.
in 6.4ket had penciled billion. and in terms of what they are delivering. do they bid or not bid? bid for a new way nobles company. juliette saly has your first word news. the new chairman of the federal reserve has open the door to central banks raising interest rates four times this year. that is as jerome powell acknowledged strong economic policymakers to rethink their plans. >> while many factors shape the outlook some of the headwinds have turned into tailwinds. in particular, fiscal policy has become more stimulated of and foreign demand for u.s. exports is on a firmer trajectory. party lawmakers have
backed an amendment calling for britain to seek post ties to the eu after it leaves the block. the size of the rebellion is enough to wipe out prime minister theresa may's slim working majority. china'sseen manufacturing gauge fall that most in five years as the spring festival holiday curved output and orders fell. the pmi dropping. missing estimates. top officials are gathering to reship the government including top economic growth. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . rounding out the month of february in the red here in asia, it has been the worst month for asian stocks since january 2016 and a pretty bad day as well.
we had the yen rise after the bank of japan reduced its longer dated purchases of wants three the nikkei fell and also disappointing data out of japan and china. weighing on the chinese index. it has been the h shares listed in hong kong so chinese stocks in hong kong falling the most and on track for a 9% monthly drop. australia closed lower by .7 of 1%. we have been talking about the duties imposed on aluminum foil producers chokehold falling by .he daily limit slightly higher in hong kong. yahoo! japan was down 7%, the biggest drop in a musty year after saying it could buy back [indiscernible] the retailer saw a drop in first-half profit and saw some early signs of slow sales in the second half. not looking very good and a very through foroming asian equities over the month of february.
following global equities. manus: this is europe's second-largest eastern europe lender. reporting net income that beat estimates. good to have you with me this morning. the company with estimates, comfortably beating that but the want themarket will most. seven tough years. how much will you grow in 2018, how much is a slight growth? andreas: good morning. after a number of years now, finally, 2018 could be a year where our revenues,
those net interest income and commission income will grow and at the same time we could see costs coming down. we are looking quite positively into 2018. we will have continued very strong long growth and we believe that overall, the region of central and eastern europe will outperform the economic performance of the eu in 2018. to youthat brings me want to get this growth in terms of the numbers. are you cutting costs, where are you going to trim those off and back? been investinge a lot in our digital front office. we are going to continue to invest in our digital front
office in 2018 and 2019 so that will result in a rise in costs because we are expanding our digital platform into all our countries during 2018. the cost-cutting will come from digitize they-- should and of our back office. in 2017 and you will see the first roots of that in 2018. in a way, you could say that we are reducing, we're still adding good costs, but we are about to dramatically reduce our bad costs. manus: ok. if i was to push you in terms of what slightly means, could you give me a bandwidth in terms of millions of euros, what is your ambition, how ambitious are you in terms of the word growth,
income growth? have decided not to give numbers for 2018. we come out and say we see a very good chance of revenues in abovein 2018 will be 2017. that is new. we have not had that in a while. more than 5% loan growth in 2017. we believe that loan growth will continue to be relatively strong. and the interest rate environment should help us and our clients in 2018. we saw a bit of that in 2017. a positive development on the interest rate side meaning they
yields are going up a little bit. it is helpful for us. at the same time, we see asset management and nonlife insurance products growing. we are pretty firm on our willtations that items grow in 2018. we are also very firm on the fact that we believe that costs will come down. we are not getting more specific on that. manus: that is fine. that level ofted reassurance. wintersey did it, phil did it, what are you going to do for shareholders in regard to dividend, where's the ambition on this dividend, where do you want to take that? decided we will propose to the general assembly
20% more than what we paid for 2016. the outlook is positive. firm not want to give any indications on what we planned to pay for 2018. the trajectory on that is definitely positive. not only because we believe that results inrove our 2018, but also because we are we are getting a lot firmer on the fact that the capital situation is adequate and that we do not anticipate any major regulatory changes that will have any affect on us. we pretty much -- we know the and both of them are negligible.
manus: the last time i spoke to you said your boys was -- your boys were telling you buy some bitcoin. are you lead they did on their own without your money? the general remark would be that they do not believe that i am that stupid anymore. we believe it there. some reassurance for the market. thank you very much in regard to dividend and growth in revenue. we wish you well. erste group bank chairman with us. our conference. we are global from abu dhabi and berlin. this is bloomberg. later we will have the ceo
manus: and has gone 7:18 a.m. in london, 1118 in upper darby. we are 40 minutes away from the start of the trading day. you have a hawkish powell and u.s. equities [inaudible] the dollar is prevaricating at the moment. play for european equities, we are indicated lower. keep an eye on the bund market. andave a bond issue today the italian government election next week. rockets are soft. they are trying to absorb who is
he, what is he, and what does he mean? it unsettled the market. juliette saly is standing by. -- bayerfire has says it needs more time to complete its transformation. they think the deal will be completed in the second quarter. on april 5, the decision is key finald there are details in the talks. the ceo joins us after 11:00 a.m. u.k. time. u.s. commerce department has [indiscernible] after concluding that the country's producers are receiving unfair subsidies and dumping the product in the american market. to 106% will be imposed on chinese aluminum foil
. selling the product below fair market value. the trump administration set duties to -- from 17% to 81%. plans to buy back 1.3 5 billion euros of shares over the next two years. -- sell a to show majority stake. credit agricole assurances joined forces to purchase an initial 55% stake in at core -- accor invest. manus: thank you. the conference is underway and matt miller is on the ground in berlin and joined by our guest. good morning. matt: good morning. i am here at kathleen bacon but
here in berlin for the super return conference. i want to focus on an issue that we had bloomberg cap been focusing on a lot more recently which is women in the industry. your industry, the private equity industry has an underrepresentation of women. we were discussing only -- earlier only 9% of private equity employers are women. how can that be changed? let's talk about why it should be changed. we are a multitrillion dollar business. the fact that only 9% of the owners of these assets, the managers who are making the difference are women is clearly wrong. enhances performance, enhances decision-making, enhances change. the fact that we have so few women in this industry i
strongly believe needs to change. people like myself, who are contriving capital to these private equity firms need to influence the firms to make that change. matt: it seems like having women involved, you make more money, you get more super returns. the market should drive that but for some reason it has not. why do you think that is the case? attraction and retention. attraction is trying to get women into the industry. 25% of business schools are represented by women. that pool our women. the pool is small. general partners are making a concerted effort to work with recruitment agencies to tell that class of incoming women. 25 to 50% of the
incoming class should be women. if done correctly. and then the retention. this is a tough industry. this is a demanding industry where if you are working on a long periods of time. become partners are also trying to manage a family. there are challenges. we do not do my -- deny that. firm at the top has to recognize those challenges and has to make changes internally to help women succeed in this business. from an investor point of view it is important because part of the game is making more money and if you have a more diverse view you get better results. where can investors look, which region has done better at being more inclusive? y, asia isinterestingl
winning in terms of having women and the senior organization. it happens that some of the best senior managers in the private equity world in asia happen to be women. that begets more women coming into that industry in asia. i think, interestingly, europe is expect -- second behind asia part because there have been some governments, norway, france, and i would say the u.k. who have encouraged all industries to look at women representation at senior levels on board's and that has filtered into the private equity industry. the u.s. is lagging. it is because at the senior performinge top firms it is all men. it is hard to attract women from the senior investment part of the firm is man.
it will take longer in the u.s. to change. i am confident it will change. matt: when do you think we will see significant change? if youascinating to me talk about undergrads, more than 50% are women and in business school 30% are women. -- in privateuity equity industries, only 10%. is this going to be a slow process or can we start to move on it more quickly? kathleen: we are starting to move on it more quickly. a lot of recruitment firms who work with private equity, they have mandates to look for more women in the process. so we are starting to see firms make a big push there. that is a huge positive for the industry. i do not have the stats on how much has changed between 2016, 2017, and 2018, but with the
number at 9%, there is an easy way to increase that number. matt: thank you for your time. kathleen bacon, managing director at harbourvest. back to you. manus: thank you. big themes you are waking up to this morning. the market is grappling with languages,w powell -- language is. stocks are lower. the market is repricing three rate hikes and 2018. gettalk is whether you can four. the u.k. waking to potential rebellion. eight mps want the u.k. to remain close. that is the rebellion. that is it ford bloomberg -- that is it for bloomberg daybreak: europe.
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