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tv   Best Of Bloomberg Markets Middle East  Bloomberg  March 10, 2018 1:00am-2:00am EST

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i know. find your phone easily with the xfinity voice remote. one more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. ♪ >> welcome to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." your other major stories driving headlights from the region -- headlines from the region this week. saudi arabia and the u.k. target $90 billion of trade and investment deals as the kingdom visits london. theresa may calls that a vote of confidence ahead of brexit. markets are rattled by president trump's tariffs. gary cohn quits and retaliation is threatened by china. could saudi arabia be the next to join the shale revolution? we have the story.
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first, the u.k. rolled out the red carpet for saudi arabia prince. he met with theresa may, with the two countries agreeing to a goal of $90 billion of mutual trade and investment in the coming years. may's office called it a vote of confidence in the economy before britain leaves the european union. i got more details from bloomberg's emily horton. >> it is key for both governments as theresa may embarking on the post european union, she sees it as a vote of confidence in the u.k. after brexit. and really for the crown prince, this is his first test on the international scene. can he bring foreign investment into the country as they look towards this 2030 vision to expand the economy past oil. yesterday, it was a political day. they first met with the queen of buckingham palace then came to downing street. we saw him in a bunch of
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ministers joined him entering downing street. it today is the business day. they are expected to sign 14 deals. it will be interesting to see what companies are involved. it will be interesting to see some of the opposition from government, as well as from parliament. and then progress being the business of ally and security in the region, isn't it? >> it is a fine line for the u.k. government. they want to continue this political and business support well,he kingdom, but as at downing street there were 100 protesters outside the gate, protesting the fact he was here. saudi arabia is britain's second-biggest venue for defense equipment. many were protesting the war in in 2015 has nds
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been a big supporter and driver for this campaign in yemen. as well as arms deals, so many in the opposition of the u.k. government as well as citizens are against this visit. it is quite a fine line theresa may needs to walk. yousef: what about the trade deals? do we have any more details about who gets to benefit? >> not just yet but london-based bae is keen on hopefully a deal for them. they had not had a follow-up since 2006, when they had that controversial arms deal. possibly something for bae and hopefully getting some more names today. yousef: the question now is if the deal announced with the u.k. and more from the u.s. will be the beginning of a wave of capital inflows from saudi saudi arabia. i got more on that with vice president of banks in the financial sector. >> the way i look at it is it's very hard to predict in the banking sector in general. up until we know what kind of deals are likely to be signed.
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the bigger picture, as we speak at the moment, nothing is likely to change in the banking sector. i would presume that a majority of these deals will happen out of the u.k. even if there will be some beckoning -- happening back at home in saudi it will take time , for the numbers to trickle down. it is definitely good news for the market. business sentiment has improved and it will continue to improve on the back of these new flows. >> the trade deals are one thing, but then you have got sentiment. --n you see the pronk rinse crown prince in the united -- and the u.k. -- in the u.k. and later on in the u.s., what a political alliance reaffirm and strengthen it? it will give investors
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confidence. the can help with inflows. how much more money could trickle in off the back of this? >> the end of february, you will see intense correction because of a lot of fundamental reasons. in the last couple of days you have seen a big momentum in the investors the back of positioning themselves. it is good news, him visiting the u.k. for more trade deals. sentiment wise, it is positive. >> so lenders could benefit but it's unnecessary -- not necessarily the major driver. the rising rates are giving people like you a lot of excitement. they will be able to ride the coattails of those rising rates, won't they? >> everybody in the market -- >> we also have to understand where it is greatly standing at the moment. everybody in the market, let's not forget, it's under pressure. ciber has been under pressure since the beginning of the year. and it actually turned negative.
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if this is sustained for a couple of quarters, then the margin expansion story should cease to exist. >> who will come on top as the winner here? >> we will play this more as a technical story for saudi, at least in 2018. i would look at fundamental stories. you have new flows of, a lot of trade flows coming in, and business sentiment is improving, but it will take some time before we actually see some positive numbers, and. -- numbers coming in. up next, the ceo of one of eu's largest investment banks. this is bloomberg.
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♪ yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." is -- eng-hermes -- efg-hermes is one of the region's largest investment banks has been expanding its frontier as well as emerging markets. they accelerate growth. i spoke to them in dubai and began by asking how things are looking for the company right now. >> [indiscernible] we are very optimistic about the coming period. we hope that we will be able to maintain our positioning.
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it takes a lot of hard work, in all honesty. and a very good relationship with --. >> and the listings are going to be more on regional indexes, or could there be if you in london -- a few in london? >> we believe there is a lot more interest from many institutions that investors in the region going forward -- i i don't think that there is an issue of local exchanges as there was -- as much as there was before. a lot of the funds are already in the region. i think the region needs a lot more people to trademark on a daily -- trade more on a daily basis. yousef: are you expecting more ipo's from the region this year? >> yes, we are. it is different in this conference, around 250 institutions coming from all over the world. they are effectively looking for
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new opportunities to invest and increase their exposure. a lot of banks are getting yousefa lot of banks are getting really bullish on saudi arabia. : what is your plan to tackle that market? are you looking to add -- over there? are you going to be hiring more people? how will you flesh it out? >> it is definitely the most important market in the region, given the depth and the amount of industries that are there. we have been present in saudi arabia since 2007. we have a good franchise over there, definitely not where we would like it to be. it is a competitive market. we see a lot of important changes taking place this year. most important, it should bring should and ftse upgrades bring a lot of influence into the market. and again, saudi is something everyone is bullish about. yousef: and you can use some of
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the cash you have for acquisitions to sort of accelerate your expansion plan? >> with are looking at all options -- we are looking at all options. i would not say that we have something concrete today. we always look at the growth of the market. we use that cash very wisely. over the non-bank financial institutions, in egypt. having that business a couple of years back. and the consumer finance might be a couple of months ago. we are also expanding in front to markets. sed that cash in pakistan. and we continue, i think it is important to maintain a liquid balance sheet, because it is important to have the cash to utilize it. yousef: you mentioned the frontier markets. do you have any mandates? >> yes, we do. we have a mandate during the -- that we are expecting to execute during the first half of frontier markets and ipo.
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i think this would be a good stepping stone for the frontier franchise going forward. yousef: what about egypt? now that the pressures on the currency have eased a little bit, what are foreign investors tell you? what is the pipeline looking like in terms of m&a and ipo? >> egypt has -- we are very bullish about the market. we believe a lot of the structural changes that need to be done, a lot of them have already taken place. and there is a very strong commitment from the government towards that end. --also see that using of easing of the interest rate cycle that will take place during that year. we have high institutions and investors. the looking we would like to see more of in egypt going forward is a lot more -- the institutions --.
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a lot of institutions come to us today and we say, we love egypt. we need more paper over there. yousef: you mentioned the central bank and what looks like a broader easing cycle. how will that play into your growth and into your profits? >> it is positive for the market as a whole. we believe that the easing of the interest rate cycle, which is very important over the past period, will attract more investors. they will see more returns and the stock market as opposed to putting their money in deposits. and more importantly, it will reignite that cycle in egypt as companies start to go back to the banks to build their investment base. and to sell more products going forward, so we are very bullish going forward. yousef: i'm looking at the business and thinking along asset management and across the region, you have been at the helm of the business and you see the ups and downs of the market. how is 2018 going to shape up compared to previous years? grow ourk, we want to
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error -- ourral -- -- in general over the coming period. [indiscernible] and we have already done that through an investment that we've made last year. we've also done a lot of renewable energy plays. [indiscernible] we have about $5 billion today. i think we need to have a lot more. both of the eu ends come in eum's well --. and part of that in my opinion will be coming to the saudi market. global institutions. yousef:, global banking giant like ubs and jpmorgan are looking into saudi arabia. we discuss why the kingdom is looking so attractive, next.
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this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." bankssuch as -- global such as ubs, goldman sachs, and citigroup are pushing ahead with growth plans in saudi arabia to try to capitalize on an evolving outlook. meanwhile, the kingdom itself is expanding and refinancing a multibillion dollar international loan. i got more with managing director and cio and bloomberg news reporter matthew martin. >> first of all on the loan, the , king has been able to take an extra $6 billion. i mean, it's sort of surprised everybody when he took a $10 million loan a few years ago. now another $6 billion, and given the budgetary shortcomings, this is going to be helpful. it also demonstrates that the kingdom is diversifying away from just having the bond markets. and also from the banking side, it's another sign that despite
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the corruption probe and despite the economic slowdown, the banks are still very keen on supporting the saudi story. they are hiring more, they are bringing more people into the country. they are still interested in winning mandates and doing deals there. despite a few bumps on the road, everyone is very positive about the opportunity. yousef: anybody that doubted that saudi arabia is here to stay as an international issuer this is evidence contrary to , that. this makes them one of the biggest issuers in the emerging markets, doesn't it? >> exactly. and now the loan is down of course. the government told us they will refinance the loan and will come out with a bond. what we will probably see being done is the banks are going to -- who are going to show the biggest commitment to them in , terms of lending to them, and -- are going to be the ones who get the bond mandate as well. they will be playing that
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relationship card, which will be encouraging people to give the saudi's more money. we will see them in the next week or two out in the bond markets. i will not be surprised before the end of march if we see saudi arabia doing another $10 billion trade. yousef: thank you very much, bloomberg's matthew martin. let's widen out the conversation and bring in managing director and cio. as you listened to the insights from matthew, where are you at with the saudi arabia fixed income play? >> when it comes to the fixed income markets, we still believe that it is based -- an emerging segment. obviously, what is happening is there will be some impact. from the early perspective, the income on gc fixed
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against that treasury is still very interesting. >> you say the spread is justified. the spread on some of these bonds, they just -- you know. it should be tighter? >> exactly. there is still eight geopolitical -- a geopolitical risk premium, which is justified. if you look at the premium, it is very strong and they believe there is that value in these bonds. in the wake of the global fixed income markets, it is much more challenging. yousef: how important is saudi arabia raising this number from 10 billion to 16 billion? it was always going to be critical for investors to see that there is going to be enough assets down there to trade. >> exactly. that is one of the drawbacks of gc fixed income, is lack of supplies. we are more supply and it looks to be -- on the fixed income markets, fixed income markets do well in the supply is going up.
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it that is the ability. yousef: let me switch across to equities. a bit of a different story playing out there. we saw deep selling, some of the lenders. we've covered some of this toward the end of last week but it is still very much on investor's minds. you say this is overstated. the banks have made the provisions. this has been going on for a while. why freak out? >> exactly. >> first, there are very strong capital buffers for saudi banks. as you mentioned, have position -- provision. there is no penal impact. so getting that impact, and a very important fee. the issue will not offset the major policy for saudi banks. it is a play on rising interest rates. it is a reminder that there is almost no cost.
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when you have interest rates going up, it goes straight to the interest margins. the saudi banks are major play on the index story because the larger banks are going to take advantage of it. we believe overall that the fundamentals are very strong. yousef: all right, so lenders is one side you are bullish on. what about the other sectors. if i wanted to take positions ahead of a ftse inclusion, or ahead of an msci emerging markets event driven trade? >> you still need to be very selective. we can tune you -- continue to avoid -- in saudi. h one we avoid. what we like in saudi is the insurance sector. insurance is one of the markets in the world where is the lowest penetration in terms of interest products. you have key headwinds like
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insurance enforcement. 4%-5% of the key drivers are not in this stage. there is a new look coming, every three years. you have the woman driving theme. and the markets constitute shorter markets. so we believe that in some -- some of these plays good double this year -- could double this year. there are very interesting stories in saudi. yousef: that sentiment is supported by the rebound in oil prices. friday was a positive session for brent crude. we have news flowing out that shows the u.s., some of the explorers there in terms of rigs targeting u.s. crude, now 800 rigs. it shows you the looming giant that is u.s. shale. up by another rig over the past
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week which shows you the sheer prosody. -- ferocity. you will be talking to some of the shale counterparts. has your view on oil changed over the last week? >> i think a couple of months ago, there was a lot of net lump position by speculators. probably too much. there is a technical question from that side. on the fundamental side, yes, the u.s. prediction remains an issue. but on the other hand, you have major ability for oil, they say global demand is too strong, we do not believe that opec-russia deal will be challenged. geopolitical risk is also putting some help on the supply side. and it is incentivizing long-term investors to take some position oil. yousef: up next, trump tariffs loomed large over market this week with white house economic adviser gary cohn quitting in protest. we break it down next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." investor fears about trade fears roaring tensions came back with donald trump's top economic advisor quitting and failing to convince the president to step back from steep tariffs on steel and aluminum. we also had china threatening retaliatory measures. with clyde mcdonald with clyde mcdonald from standard chartered. >> he really was the person in the administration that was pushing for business interests. and that meant global trade. he is someone respected by wall street as well as the business community. it is a blow. he also was a big advocate of
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the tax changes and helped push for those tax law changes that occurred at the end of last year. the president even thanking him on several occasions for that. this comes amid other changes. it's going to be a difficult time. he will be somebody that is difficult to replace. yousef: we are hearing the white house might impose more tariffs chinarb investments from as punishment for ip theft. what measures are they talking about here? jodi: these are in addition to the tariffs we have been talking about for several days. these would be, in effect, punishment for what the u.s. and -- what the trump administration sees as china's theft of intellectual property rights. and they would be imposing a new set of tariffs, a new set of percentage import on imports across a wide range of products. things like electronic products,
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clothing, shoes. and this would, again, take effect along with the other tariffs. some people who are hearing about this some analysts are , saying that this could also provoke more retaliation from china on the world stage. yousef: let's bring steve into this conversation. in the past few months, whenever the u.s. comes out with fiery rhetoric or policy action, it -- they would usually be the adult in the room and it would be a fairly contained reaction. have we had any response yet from china? steve: it's as you described, fairly restrained. we have been at the media center for the national people's congress, the session of parliament, which we are in day three. we just had the conclusion of the agricultural minister press conference. prior to that, we had the finance minister. neither one of them addressed the trade dispute with the
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united states or the potential of an escalating trade dispute. the finance minister wasn't even asked about it and did not mention it, nor did we get any other details on china's proposals to open up its sectors like telecom or energy vehicles that they alluded to in the work report. the agricultural minister was asked about it directly. however, he did not even answer it. he deflected the question and talked about something else. one interesting note on the agricultural minister, if i may talk about this. one thing he talked about, corn. he's trying to get chinese farmers to stop planting more corn. that has obviously been incentivized because of the rise in corn and the need for ethanol. what he did then say is to start growing more soybeans. they want china to grow more soybeans. guess what country ships a lot of soybeans to china and what could be a tit-for-tat measure? soybeans.
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yousef: great reporting, stephen engle from beijing. and thank you to jodi schneider. let's widen this conversation further and get some additional insight from clive mcdonnell, head of strategy at standard chartered bank. the resignation of gary cohn. anybody looking for this economic advisor as the last backstop to some plans but that is now gone. the market is trying to get its head around all of these developments. how much of an impact will this have? clive: the departure of gary cohn is a disappointment but not a complete surprise. the main issue we need to remain focused on is this is primarily about nafta. and president trump trying to have a strong negotiating stance on nafta. the collateral damage is europe and china, unfortunately. i think that while the tariffs in position on steel and aluminum have a different
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target, we need to be focused on what the response is from china and from europe. yousef: doesn't it open a whole new ways of uncertainty? at some point, the market has got to grasp the reality that there's a little bit too much uncertainty. it is just difficult to know what will happen tomorrow and that is some of the feedback we've been getting from investors. clive: uncertainty is a fact of life in markets. there's no getting around that. gary cohn put together a resignation letter late last year. i don't think that trades uncertainty. and in regards to nafta we have , known for some time that trump wants to negotiate a better deal or he will drop out. that position has not changed. the increased rhetoric is not unusual from the white house. i think uncertainty is a fact of life of markets. yousef: you are putting this in context, but there is the fact you have a stock market that has rallied on the prospect of higher earnings growth. even the talk of tariffs is likely to put a dent in some of
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those outlooks, isn't it? clive: given what is on the table at the moment is unlikely to impact earnings. from the 12% to the start of the year to 19% now, the tax reforms. the 25% on aluminum, 10% on steel will not have a huge effect on corporate earnings. much more important is the outlook for employment and the outlook for bond yields. yousef: what is the outlook for you? is there a question of who will replace gary cohn in the white house as economic advisor or is it the possibility of retaliatory measures from around the world? that this really does escalate? that it does have a real economic impact. yousef: that clearly is the risk. -- clive: that clearly is the risk. what i want to see is the response from canada and mexico. we saw the knee-jerk response from europe about harley
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davidson and bourbon whiskey. that they are sticking with the -- response on steel and aluminum. no definitive response yet but what i want to see is what is mr. trudeau in canada have to say about this? yousef: up next, we have an update about the market authority and the nation's plans to sell a chunk of the stock exchange. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." the saudi stock exchange has been making aggressive changes to prepare for the anticipated aramco ipo and the inclusion in the msci emerging market index. where does that leave regional rivals like kuwait, still looking to sell to an -- a large stock -- stake in its largege to a international operator? i put that question to the chairman and managing director of the nation's capital market authority.
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>> we have a lot of authority. we launched the -- and the market development last year, and we are currently in the final testing phases of the market and developing space. and it will include markets in kuwait as well as several --tiatives related to markets. yousef: where does that leave us in terms of a potential ipo for bourse kuwait? >> this is very important. obviously the upgrade to emerging markets puts kuwait on the international map. that, coupled with improvements on an operational level, with respect to launching a new project, market pigmentation is there to highlight the importance of liquidity. international --
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and other products that are very essential for the market development. be -- ine, that will operation for just over a year and a half. this comes on the back of -- losses. yousef: do you have a date for the ipo? >> we have signed with our advisors. our international advisors, and the current stage of work is basically market exploration and it will take three months. hopefully by the end of april, we have a very impressive -- effective look at the landscape. from that, we will hopefully have a very clear timeline taking us to the ipo. we're hopeful that we can complete that by the end of the
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year. yousef: you have been moving fast to some of those reforms, but you have got competition in saudi arabia. they are moving very aggressively as well as the rest of the region buying in. they are put to work in this part of the world. what else can you do to bring in more investors? what are some of your creative innovations that are really going to sell it? issue thatthe main remains in kuwait is liquidity. this is where a lot of the initiatives between bourse kuwait -- the processes for trading and opening accounts. this is were we have a bit of a bottleneck. i think the interest level remains very -- as far as the kuwait markets are concerned. and just fixing these issues will get us into better shape. in terms of project development,
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we have a very clear map over the next 24 months, where a lot of improvements happening. we will talk about them in detail today with investors. yousef: closing question on governance. what are you doing to make sure the publicly listed ones, the ones on the index, actually comply with the rules? >> i think, on that front, we are comfortable. when we talk about governance in general, we had the conference -- launch in mid-2015. the compliance level was at the 90% level. in the second annual submission in 2017, we had a compliance of
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99%. that is quite good come in my opinion, for a newly implemented code. it which, in my opinion, in terms of disclosure, it was very following up with issuance. in the current market, we should -- initiating and hopefully will -- by the first of april. we have been introducing a mandatory test of earnings in the premium market. that will put more pressure on issuance to be more transparent than they already are. yousef: the world's largest oil exporter could become the next big player in the shale revolution, challenging the u.s. dominance in the production of nonconventional natural gas. saudi aramco says that it is set to explode a gas deposit that is similar in size to america's second-biggest shale basin. i got more with anthony dipaola.
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>> it is a huge venture, a very challenging what as well -- one as well. they are one of the biggest exporters in the world, one of the biggest exporters of oil in the world. most of the natural gas has come out with that oil. because they have a lack of natural gas for their future economic and development plans, they're really going after specific gas only fields. it's a huge country, so lots to explore. as they start to look at shale, that is one area we haven't really seen exploited very much in the middle east. the big challenge on that is water. when companies are fracking, they shoot water and chemicals into break up those rock formations and let the hydrocarbons come out. in the middle east, we are rich on oil but scarce in the water , so that has been an issue. where are going to have to see the workarounds that they get in trend to exploit those -- and
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trying to exploit those resources. yousef: another thing we are looking at is how this changes the energy landscape. we have data from the united states and we can put up charts on the back of that. the big move on crew that we -- crude that we saw, it's related to a few stoploss orders, stabilizing as we speak. how does it change the energy landscape? anthony: we see how much of the landscape has changed in the last few years when the u.s. has come on with so much shale. people talk about the u.s. being the swing producer and talking about u.s. energy dominance. not just energy independence, but dominance. potentially, this could swing things back toward saudi arabia , that they still have got that huge resource of oil. arguably that was the energy source of the last century, and now they want to get hugely into gas, which we could say is going to be the energy resource of at least the next half century. if they find and are able to produce economically, natural gas, on the scale that they've
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been able to do oil, that continues their reign as a harjo superpowerydrocarbon as well. we will see how that balance shifts. we will see how the global energy usage shifts. are we going to be using less oil? that will all depend. yousef: it should be straightforward. you have got so much knowledge that aramco has with its global assets around the world, that it should be a basic question of transfer from some of the existing -- a broad. >> they are talking about potential investments in shale, talking about getting into some potential product in russia. they are looking around and trying to get some of that technology. the challenges here are vastly different. saudi arabia and the neighbor uae, they are connected by the
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-- empty quarter. they have explored for gas there and the gas that comes out there is high in sulfur. it is a huge challenge to produce that safely. the uae has gone on and built a rail link from the middle of the desert to the ocean to export that sulfur. saudi aramco also explored on its side of the border, and decided it wasn't economic at the time to develop those fields. lots of challenges going forward. yousef: up next, the first four and ceo of the stock exchange in the near 70 year history. how is richard's plan going? we hear from him next, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ yousef: welcome back to the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." he is the first foreign ceo in thenear 70 year history of saudi stock exchange.
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when the canadian took charge in january, he wanted to improve protection and build a new trading platform. i spoke to him this week about how those plans are shaping up. richard: pakistan has rebounded quite well after that very brief bear market that we went through last year. let's not forget that long-term, pakistan has been an incredible growth story. it has produced 20% annual return for the past 10 years. so a little bear market once in a while is not the end of the world. yousef: what about working around the problem with more expansion or further tieups? is there a timeline? richard: pakistan is an incredible turnaround and growth opportunity. there are a quarter million on -- million investors on the pakistan stock exchange. it is a tiny fraction of the potential that this market has. our challenge is to penetrate the 40 million strong middle-class pakistan market. in doing so we can multiply their retail investor base
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tenfold. yousef: and was it been like working with the chinese exchange? they did buy a stake? take us through the day today operations. richard: they represent the board of directors and they have been very supportive of all of psx,eform initiatives of which they bought last year. and i have one chinese national. national one chinese on my staff. they have been very supportive. yousef: we understand it is a restructuring underway. is there going to be some jobs that will be cut as part of that? richard: i don't think we will account -- hr account. we will allocate resources, but the objective is to reduce
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except in two areas. we have made the decision to carve out are we still -- real estate portfolio to make it a second -- separate entity. and we talk about the regulatory division of the exchange. yousef: you are carving out the regulatory division. is your thinking behind that? richard: the objective is to bring a more effective and independent organization to pakistan and in the process, allow the exchange to focus on its core business which is operating and growing this exchange. it is a very good development. we are very supportive of the initiative to move in that direction. yousef: that is it for the "best of bloomberg markets middle east." we have a busy weekend ahead and we will be right here for the start of the trading week in the
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gulf sunday morning at 8:00 a.m. in the united arab emirates on bloomberg television. i am yousef gamal el-din. do join me then. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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jonathan: i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, a goldilocks jobs report, monster payrolls growth without the inflation shock. positive news for ian, as the trade war rhetoric fades. mexico and canada escaping tariffs. debt issuers fixed up. but we begin with the jobs report. >> i thought it was a really good report. >> impressive.

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