tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg March 20, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
this is bloomberg. ♪ here are the top stories from the bloomberg and around the world. fluctuating stocks after yesterday's stocks as oil climbs to a two we can't. facebook shares continue to fall. the trade commission set to be investigating whether they violated a consent agreed by revealing personal data from millions of users. we will have more of my exclusive interview with arlene foster, the leader of northern ireland's democratic unionist party. let's have a look at european equities, 30 minutes away from the end of the tuesday session. barring ireland, we have stocks rising for the third day.
these are the currencies falling against the dollar, the euro down by .5 and mixed for sovereign bond yield and commodities. cvs is your final two columns. let's talk about german data. investor confidence went to its lowest level since 2016. they're concerned the europe's biggest economy could be hit with the trade war. expectations falling to 1.5 in march versus 17.8. the estimate was for 13. angela merkel is intensifying efforts to thwart this trade war with united states. we have a close ally of the chancellor who says he is in washington and is more optimistic that a serious trade conflict can be averted after speaking to officials in washington. said darkened in a favorable backdrop to the
nation's bonds, so says with the deputy cio outcome of the march for, the worst outcome with anti-establishment parties trying to form a government following a vote that yielded a hung parliament. the world's biggest asset manager said it is underweight while italy's bonds have outperformed germany boned, as well as referral -- germany bund, as well as peripheral trades. 10-year in italy has been around 2%, as you can see from the chart. that hints some complacency may be among investors, so says blackrock. let's talk russia as trump and putin has spoken in the wake of the putin election victory over the weekend, maybe a one and one meeting. the index in russia has raised its march gains with the
potential fallout of the poison of the next by in the u.k. -- of an next spy in the u.k. -- ex -spy in the u.k.. estimates trail 12 month eps, reaching its widest level since 2016. that is the bottom line. the top line as russian stocks remain attractive in the midterm because fundamentals always take over, so says an asset management. what is happening in the u.s.? julie: i'm not sure what the fundamentals are telling us today here. the directional's, especially as they had given up early rebounds. the dow banking on to its morning -- shanking on to its rebound this morning as we see weakness in technology and spreading beyond facebook, and as we see energy
industrials outperforming. as we watch the weakness in technology, look at the qqq's, the largest etf, tracking the nasdaq. these are flows in and out of the qqq's and there was a big outflow earlier in the week as we saw the selling in the nasdaq 100 and composite more broadly. as we have seen an uptick in volatility overall, we have seen an increase in volatility of fund flows coming in and out. the 13 week average, a weekly front closing to it with a share of total assets rose to 2% on friday. late last week, we saw a lot of money coming in. it is interesting to see the swings. facebook is falling once again today. is down another 5% after dropping almost 7% yesterday. we are seeing other social media companies in hit on concerns over privacy. twitter and snap is down.
you cannot forget about the other big events, jay powell's first fed meeting as chairman of the federal reserve. ahead of that, we see the two-year yield at the highest since september 2008 as we see selling in the bond market and an increase in yield across the curve and buying of the u.s. dollar, up .25. mark: perfect matter to finish on. let's check on the fx markets. aerling yesterday letting off bit of gains in today's sessions ahead of research. anllowing that weaker th expected inflation number, does it change the inflation -- does it change the expectation? >> not necessarily. they expect the cost push inflation in the u.k. to start subsiding from here and that isn't materializing, especially because of the positive impact is starting to abate.
positive growth development will boost the power of the u.k. consumer. i guess their plan is for a gradual plan very much. mark: as opposed to the brexit transition and day buy sterling moments. but the phase that fades quickly. it is safe tot assume you could see gains in the near-term but depending on the ever evolving brexit negotiations, that might the temporary. at the moment, we like sterling against this was frank, and it could get lowered from here and over a longer term, we have strongest confidence in protecting -- in projecting. it is more of a depreciation rather than sterling trend appreciation. right now, we are positioned for
more gains in the pound against the swiss franc. vonnie: what is the fundamental driver of gains? is it political risk, geopolitical risk, what is it? valentin: a little bit of everything. it is hard to disentangle conflicting drivers. it is safe to say investors have been defensive given the risks ahead of the g-20 meeting that concludes today. obviously, the risk being that despite the fairness for a global growth backdrop, policies like u.s. protectionism could lead to a great selloff in the global risk markets. combination mind, a of both. our conclusion of all of that has been that the strategy we have been pursuing all the years has been to apply a fairly
regionally well by us in trade ideas, and we like european currencies and we think they are undervalued. we think asian currencies, with the exception of japan, could continue to underperform. and that is trading short of the dollar but a long pound has played out reasonably well so far. ,onnie: what happens to the yen with the exception of japan, we have seen a. a big figure in the last 24 hours, and seems to be one of the only currencies been around? valentin: at least for us, the yen was part of the funding currencies with the swiss franc. that is what hurt their performance with the strong commitment to central banks to an easy monetary policy. that seems to be changing in the case of the boj and feels like markets are seeing again for less of the euro 2.0 and that
could ultimately point of further gains for the yen, especially against the dollar. one factor that makes this worried that the dollar-yen may extend its slide to over medium-term is the factory yen is the cheapest g10 currencies. our long-term estimates below hundred, so from that point of view, you would think the risks would be on the downside for medium-term point of view. mark: what are you -- what about european trumpism? how could that proof negative for the euro? becoming arumpism is global concept, based on the feedback protectionism could dominate global relationships and nationalism to dominate the price action in the fx market. there is no surprise that all in , you got almost half of the votes going to
antiestablishment parties that have more or less embraced trumpism and they also and stricter migration. something else that brings them close to it trump once is aggressive fiscal stimulus ridley. that could -- stimulus for italy. that could play out down the road for that reason. that could convince fiscal hawks that italy might need this go stimulus and the only way for them to put the nuclear option of the referendum back on the table. if you look at popular surveys, almost 50% of italians to not have a favorable view and it is a dangerous time. i think the lack of market reaction to the fact that almost half of the italian both went to parties like the five-star movement borders complacency. one of the two fed
meeting, how should we be positioned with jay powell's first day? valentin: we think that particular trait could perform well. we think all the markets may be underestimating the hawkishness that could transpire from powell's communication and the new dot plot, and that the markets are looking at four rate hikes at the moment. the point is that the markets are not there yet. if you look at the current dot plot, it would only take four for this year, and so far, we have paulo saying they have three assessed their view of the economy -- we have powell saying they had three assessed. it is a knee-jerk out thing that the dollar could do well across the board, but given the current set up a bit rejectionist fears of trade wars and all of that,
with china having to bear the brunt of protectionism, i think short of the dollar, it could be the best trade in the setup. --k: valentin mayor off valentin marinov, thank you. vonnie: well done. let's check in on first word news. he was mark crumpton. fifth time this month, a package bomb has exploded in a facility near san antonio in texas. one person suffered minor injuries and now a second package has been found at another texas fedex location. police believe it is loaded with an explosive device and they are at the scene. school shooting has ended with the gunman being shot and killed, according to a sheriff, who says a school resource officer fired at the gunman. earlier, two students were wounded. and took place at great mills high school in southern
maryland. while republican lawmakers have warned president trump not to fire robert mueller, they maintain that legislation could protect his position as head of the russia probe and it is needed. paul ryan was adamant that mueller's investigation will not be impeded. >> the special counsel should be free to follow through the investigation to its completion without interference, absolutely. i'm confident to will be able to do that. i received assurances his fire is not under consideration -- aspiring is not under consideration. no one is above the justice system. mark: president trump has characterized the probe as a witchhunt on twitter, leading to speculation that mueller could be dismissed. amnesty international says nigerian officials were warned that suspected a boko haram extremists were on their way to a town, where more than 100 schoolgirls were abducted last
month. the group says the army and police received at least five calls in the hours before the attack. the country's president has called it a national disaster. in 2014, 276 nigerian schoolgirls were abducted by boko haram extremists. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you. breaking news, president donald trump is meeting with saudi crown prince in the oval office right now. we have headlines from the meeting. president trump saying saudi arabia is a good friend and great purchaser. --t he means is sales have sales of billions of dollars of missiles have been closed. he also said the middle east "has not been a pretty picture,"
billion worth of sales and claims to saudi arabia, so he mentioned that off the bat. that they are a good purchaser in good friend. the saudi prince says the saudi friend tothe oldest the u.s. from the middle east. we will bring you taped playback of that as soon as we get it. just weeks after his release, another prince is back to work, reshaping his investment empire. in an exclusive interview with erik schatzker, the other saudi towardsays he is working as much as $3 billion in investments. >> the thing right now is raising between $2 billion of debt because we do have some cash, but you are now looking for a second bill for us.
year, in 2018, although the are notright now overvalued, but they are not what we wish them to be.we would like to get firepower ready for us. getting financing facilities. erik: what size deal? >> we are willing to do any deal between $1 billion and $3 billion. erik: in what industry? >> we are a holding company and we are open. erik: i have heard that you are working with goldman sachs. >> yes, goldman sachs -- and i think mr. blankfein personally for his support in the deal up one product billion dollars -- this deal of $1.6 billion.
right now, we are working why -- them and is and others. we do -- erik: would you consider restructuring kingdom holding to make it easier for people saudi -- and the other investments you have remain in the kingdom holding structure? >> that is what our ceo is. right now, their thinking and divesting to kingdom holding, it is ongoing. we already have an ongoing discussion now on that situation. mark: our very own erik schatzker speaking in an exclusive interview with prince
i will meet with arlene foster. we will come away with this and go to president trump. and thet trump: poseidon's, $1.4 billion, and what it does is it means many, many jobs. i am talking over 40,000 jobs in the united states. we make the best equipment in the world. saudi arabia is buying a lot of this equipment and a lot of people are at work making the equipment, not only for us, because we are getting a $700 billion military proposal and that is even a lot for you guys, we are getting a $700 billion
plan this year and $716 billion next year. we really have a great friendship and relationship. i would really have to say the relationship was to put it mildly, very strained during the --ma missed ration, administration, and the relationship is good as it has ever been and will only probably get better with tremendous investments made in our country, and that means jobs for our workers, our people. also, defense. we are talking about defense, and we are working hard with saudi arabia and they are putting a big part of the bill -- footing a big part of the knowfor defense, and we what has happened in the middle east and it has not been a pretty picture for the united states are anybody. a lot of things are changing rapidly. isis is now -- we have
recaptured almost 100% of the territory, as you have heard, before anybody, we have captured close to 100% of the territory held by isis, and we will very rapidly and quickly -- and that is coming to an end in that part of the world, and we will be able to get out a certain areas that we have wanted to get out of for a long amount of time, and other countries can handle it. at this point, they will be able to handle it. it is a great honor to have you here. thank you very much. for more than 80 years, we have had alliance and big interest, and different areas and the foundation of the relation is huge and deep, and we know that the relation is the cause of
more than 4 million jobs and also jobs in saudi arabia. one, innow, from day --s office, we have planned is anlot of it opportunity up more than 55%, signalt happens is a that all things can be tackled and that is why we are here today, to be sure that we have all the opportunities and achievements and also get rid of i'm very glad to be here today. president trump: one thing you
have been focused on is the terrorism threat and funding of terrorism. whether saudi arabia or other countries, there will be no funding. we have a zero-tolerance for the funding of terrorism and we are working very hard. i will say that saudi arabia has been working very hard on that, as are other countries in the middle east. when i was there in may, i think it was one of the most incredible today meetings anybody has ever seen -- two day meetings anybody has ever seen. we had 56 countries, everybody was there at the head of every country. virtually, every head of the countries, and we talked about terrorism and the funding of terrorism. allowed.ll not be it will not be allowed. that would be the one thing that would end the relationship with any country. i think there is a very big focus on that, the funding of terrorism, meaning it is over. happyher thing i am very
about is that we talked about $400 billion worth of investment of which we have already invested and cnet invested into our companies and various other places and people that make things. so a lot of places throughout the united states have benefited from this massive investment made by saudi arabia to buy product from the united states, and we make the best military product in the world, whether missiles or planes or anything else. no one comes close. i want to thank you and congratulate you on everything. thank you very much. >> [indiscernible] any comments on the bombings in austin? president trump: the bombings in austin are terrible. local, state and federal are working hand-in-hand to th get to the bottom of it. this is obviously a very, very
sick individual or individuals. these are sick people and we will target. -- and we will get to the bottom of it. we have stock agencies over there right now. what is going on in austin, the great place, a tremendous place, is absolutely disgraceful. we have a lot of power over there. it is not easy to find, but these are sick people and we have to find them as soon as possible. we have to find them really immediately. i will say working with texas, working with local governments, has been great, but we have to produce and find this very sick person or people. thank you. >> [indiscernible] >> is it a hate crime or terrorism, mr. president? present from: i can graduate -- president trump: i was on the phone with vladimir putin and congratulated him on his victory. the call had to do with the fact
that we will probably get together in the not-too-distant future so we can discuss arms, the arms race, as you know, he made a statement that being in an arms race is not a great thing. that was right after the election, one of the first statements he made. we are spending $700 billion on our military, and a lot of it is we are going to remain stronger than any other nation in the world. i suspect that we will probably be meeting in the not-too-distant future to discuss the arms race, which is getting out of control, but we will never allow anybody to have anything even close to what we have. syria,o discuss ukraine, north korea, and various other things. i think probably we will be seeing president putin in the not-too-distant future. >> [indiscernible] president trump: the iran deal
is coming up. we will see what happens. it is probably another month or so, and you will see what i do. iran has not been treating that part of the world or the world itself appropriately. a lot of bad things are happening in iran. video is coming up in one month, and you will see what happens. >> [indiscernible] president trump: thank you. >> everybody, make your way out, please. let's go. vonnie: you were just listening trumptching president with the saudi crown prince in the oval office. president trump saying the middle east has not been a pretty picture and spending a lot of time on the idea that the funding of terrorism must come to an end. they also talked about the opportunities for saudi arabia and the united states, with an enthusiastic prince of
saudi arabia, so they are considering $400 billion of investments in the u.s. , donald, that is, saying they finalized $12.5 billion in purchases and claims and armaments. kevin cirilli joins us from the white house now. obviously, this was a meeting between the saudi crown prince and other areas of foreign policy came up at the end of the conference, saying iran would be a topic of discussion. the president saying, what should i do in a month, what do you take away from the initial part of the meeting? kevin: the president has been toying with withdrawing from the iran nuclear deal are some time with the deadline in the next weeks for him to make some action. this is an area of common ground between president trump and the saudi crown prince on the issue of iran. it is how the united states has been able to bring the saudi's
to the negotiation table, even with the likes of israel as they .ook to thwart nuclear threats i can tell you there are folks ,n the intelligence community not as many of the republican party, who agree with democrats this is an agreement the president ought to keep in line with. this is just the first stop for the saudi crown prince in terms of where he will travel around the country, in addition to meeting with leaders and financial business leaders, and also silicon valley and tech sector types. this is part of an effort of the u.s. and saudi's to capitalize on foreign investment in the region. it comes following the president's travel last year when he announced those business dealings. it comes at a time when there is also questions about the saudi's involvement of defense missiles from the russians. vonnie: thank you, kevin
cirilli. mark: let's look at european equities. the close is here. stocks up for the third day and i think equity strategists say we will keep overweight stops on european stocks given that attractive valuations.u.s. earnings are set to cool down . over political risks in europe continued to face them. key and the u.k. was inflation, ali more than expected in february with the impact of sterling's post-brexit referendum with consumer prices rise .7% versus percent in .anuary -- 2.7% who have for consumers seen rising in prices and eating into their spending power. the boe, the bank of england,
which meets on thursday, expects headline inflation could side further -- slide further. inflation out of the u.k., this is a wonderful chart. they clinched this transition deal with the eu and that deal is not likely to lend. was saying that it was likely to raise rates. challenging paths ahead for the european company to come clearer. there is a gap between u.k. and german ten-year yield narrowing to 50 basis points by the end of in year, a level last seen 2013.
right now, we are at 88 basis points. ten-year yields are forecasted to end up 1.83% and bund yield to be .9, meaning the spread is .4 error then the prediction. i want to tell you about one corporate story in the news.shares down by 4%. they are seeking a claim to be the best place to triumph over sexual market changes that are stoking investor concerns and revised its sales, margin goals for the first time since 2013. it says it is achieving an organic growth rate of 4% by 2020 and embark on a cost-cutting plan to boost its profit margin. that is the latest from european markets. vonnie: we are starting with the nasdaq in the u.s. we have managed to grind higher, with some green despite the fact twitter is down 10%, facebook
5%, on news regulators are cracking down. the volatility index is up, and it was above 19 earlier. the dollar index strengthening ever further and it is began primarily moving come up weaker with almost a big figure weaker than yesterday at 106.43. let's look at global macro movers. we have next reaction in equity. .ut mexico is lower we are still seeing jitters about trades this week and we have not got to the funding bill we are supposed to have out i friday. that is on the back burner now. maybe on friday, we can talk about that. to getstill continuing ever more expensive per barrel. $63.27. at the same time, we have steel
down, not on the board right there because it is not done as much as other commodities, but steel is taking a late lower today. mark: the ecb is pushing the eu 27 ticks of like forming a banking union. the finance minister portugal open president of the euro group, which gathers together the euro using country spoke to bloomberg's michael mckee in the g20 summit in buenos aires about moving towards a thinking union. >> banking union is a top priority. we are engaging in a very deep discussion among member states. -- which means to be completing the union, the three pillars will be a great achievement.
>> do you think you have made progress on risk sharing ahead of the june meeting? put theve to perspectives together. important the cross action of member states today. we are at the lowest portion in our countries. andsame scene on the final citiesl position with and the level of normalization has to be the lowest degree ever, and this is very important to note because this is a result of structural reforms in many countries. reforms we made
at the level. so we have to take that on board in order to face further risk .haring measures we made yes, the goal in june is to have a more detailed roadmap and the plan to the future. we are certainly going to reach an agreement on the sequencing of the reforms, and on the way to reformat them over time because we know it is an asset. for the ecb choice still has criticisms because there is only one woman on the governing council. would you anticipate trying to make changes picked --
changes? >> we have to be attentive to that dimension. the processes are transparent, and countries present their own candidates. ofill do my job in terms generating a more diverse better candidates for the next appointment, but it is very important that this is done on the side of the government and one of them should look at these dimensions. it is a contest. would one candidate be disqualified because he is german? >> of course not. take on policies, and
qualifications and skills of each one of the candidate. mark: that is the finance minister portugal speaking to michael mckee. michael joins us now from the g-20 summit. given we just finished with mr. eu,teno, is the particularly germany, making headway to avoid a trade war states? united michael: we are hearing that there has not been a progress made here but it is a steve states? mnuchin's decision. that will be made by wilbur ross and the president. israde minister from the eu going to make the case tomorrow. they have a treaty that allows them to make trade deals only as a block, so they will ask for a
blanket exception for europe. we are not sure they will get it. there are some talk that the administration would like support for chinese sanctions with the exception of aluminum and steel tariffs. we will have to see what the administration puts on. vonnie: on trade at the g-20, is that the u.s. that has the upper hand for countries siding more with china or europe? no.ael: right now, they're fighting with the u.s. over the idea protectionism. there is a general agreement that china does cheat, that they are the master of unfair trade practices, but turning inward and wrecking tariff barriers is not going to be the answer. the rest of the g20 would like to see a coordinated and international pressure on china, but the u.s. says that has not worked so far, why would it work in the future? the u.s. is determined to go ahead with the sanctions being talked about. vonnie: our thanks to michael
♪ mark: live from london, i am mark vonnie: artan. i am vonnie -- i am mark barton. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. a second day of the federal trade commission investigating whether or not the company violated a 2011 personal consent decree. theound guilty, have ability to find facebook $16,000 a day per.
violation joining us from san francisco is our bloomberg technology reporter. give us the background. at what point if they decide to get off? -- decide to get involved? >> today, they have decided to get involved in a probe. what the ftc is looking at is how the day -- how did they violate the policy made in 2011 by allowing a university professor to turnover tends and millions of personal data from consent?rs without the vonnie:vonnie: the last time was 2011, 6 -- seven years ago. what would facebook have done wrong in the nascar? -- what would facebook have done wrong in the meantime? >> there is a column action from lawmakers that facebook really to tell lawmakers they are
going to put controls to prevent data manipulation. facebook made an error by not ensure that cambridge to tell le going to put analytica deleted the data. they knew about this in 2015 that this data was shared without user consent and they chose not to share the information with the public but wait until now when they found out the data was not deleted and they never took the steps to make sure it was erased from the servers. it was reported they asked them to check off and mark that they said they did this and it was a code of honor. mark: where is mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg? they are trying as hard as they can to shy away from this issue. we have put out requests of facebook asking when they will put out a formal statement to address it. we are hearing that lawmakers want to hear the chief executives to explain what happened but we are reporting that mark zuckerberg will be meeting with certain members of
the justice department. we do not know what the terms are, but you are correct that he has been out of the spotlight for us much of this as he has been able to explain. vonnie: i believe there are reports there are meetings with employees today. we will see if anything. -- if anything gets reported. thank you. mark: still ahead, more of our exclusive interview with arlene foster, and her thoughts surrounding brexit and the major players involved. this is bloomberg. ♪
issue, solutions, red lines and her thoughts on major players in negotiations. >> there is a lot of concern around that. i think what she is saying is we are leaving the commonplace. that pass to be a clear and proficient. a lot of them both want to leave the european union based on the fact there were coming out of that. i think they have got that .larity now some may not be happy it is taking a length of time but i think clarity is around the fact we will be leaving. in terms of northern ireland, we still need to. some may not be happy it see a c in response to the irish government and european union. they need to be more practical. when i met with mr. barnier, he was clear that he wanted a practical and pragmatic solution. mark: with a wide ranging trade saying, the irish
prime minister saying, if we get this wide ranging trade deal, that will be enough to resolve the heart border issues and some suggesting it isn't the case. is it isn't it? isn't the answer? -- is it the answer? >> i think it is. we have to deal with the border before we look at trade deals. i think we need to concentrate on what are trading relationship is going to be post-brexit. that will solve some of the issues don't not all of the time. it is becoming competitive in relation to that. so let's get on with trade issues. mark: some saying that the irish have taken a rather aggressive approach. mewell, some probably being in relation to that. ark: is leo taking progressive and hardline approach when it comes to the irish issue?
>> i think they have taken an aggressive approach to all of this and leaving some people in northern ireland to think it may not just be about brexit but other things, such as the united ireland question. i hope it isn't. last week in america, the prime minister went out of his way to say it it isn't about that. it is about trying to find a way forward. i had sensed over the years there has been a lot of aggression. i hope we can get over that and move to talk about what are trading relationship is going to be because in terms of unions in northern ireland, we want to work with our nearest neighbor and in a practical and pragmatic way good for both of us. let's cut out the aggression and move on to doing what is right. mark: what is your redline? clearly, you want that inserted into the text with no border between britain and northern ireland? either of the red lines, like
top three red lines? >> we don't like talking about red lines. we went to see a settlement that works for everybody. if you look back at december in the report, that talked about trying to find a way forward in terms of trade agreement and that, and if it did not come to fruition, the next step was to look at how it would work in northern ireland the pragmatic whole of theac u.k. stayed within a framework. text, andot in the that is where difficulties arose, because they interpreted there would be a border. something we could not live with. mark: arlene foster there. vonnie: president trump just meeting with saudi crown prince and a lot of headlines we are getting from that meeting.
we are hearing that trump said the school shooting was terrible . it came up as part of the questioning. he also said it is an honor to have the saudi prince visiting. prince says he sees a stable market for oil. this comes on top of comments at the introductory part of the meeting, where the saudi crown prince said that it was the oldest ally of the united states in the middle east. and the president was also very complementary, particularly about the $12.5 billion in armaments and other things purchased by the saudi's from the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪ mom, dad, can we talk?
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm shery ahn. david: welcome to bloomberg markets balance of power with a focus on the economy. >>from bloomberg world headquarters in new what we wil. facebook -- as soon as tomorrow. probing the company. trump saudi arabia right now at the white house. the president calling them a goods.uyer of u.s. a deadline to avoid another government shutdown. we will hear from key goods. david: meeting at the white house with president