tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg April 4, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
♪ 7:00 a.m. here in hong kong. i am yvonne man. welcome to "daybreak asia." trade tensions, is it time to talk? willingnessicates to negotiate with china as tit-for-tat tariffs rattled the markets. beijing says it will not be pushed around and slaps reciprocal duties on america. from bloomberg's global headquarters i am a ramy inocencio in new york. of 87ok says the data million users was improperly shared. mark zuckerberg says he is still the man for the job.
curved screens and touchless control, how apple aims to keep the iphone ahead of the game. we are live in san francisco. ♪ yvonne: we just got breaking news from south korea crossing the bloomberg right now, the current account balance for the month of february. we are swinging back into a surplus. it was a surplus the previous month but we have widened the surplus to $4 billion. much bigger than we saw in january of $2.6 billion. certainly one to watch for the korean markets. inuick, sweeping turn around the wall street session after these trade tensions seem to be simmering, seems to be more breathing room about how it will play out with trade
negotiations. ramy: earlier today i was getting ready to say it was a bloodbath on wall street, but i looked up, and within the span of an hour it turned from red to green. itself did a turnaround points in just one day. if you have the wherewithal to get into the market at the start of the day, you really made a killing. you can see how the s&p 500 ended at more than 1%. the nasdaq, we have been talking about tech falling, it is up by 1.5%. the white house hinting about negotiations, offsetting concerns about the all-out trade war. su keenan is here to break it down. very bullish. >> yes, if you look at the charts. message received from china that they would retaliate.
let's go into the s&p intraday. at the lowest point we are down 1.5%. quickly we came back. there was a rehearsal yesterday. it was much bigger today. gain in five weeks for the s&p. let's go into the bloomberg. -- the bigd these at move from the bottom to the top has been repeated many times over, this blue box at the far right. but it alsoal, tells us, volatility here to stay. let's go to the snapshot. the market does not like uncertainty, and that is the main headwind here. the dollar fell as the mexican peso strengthened. you saw bonds reacting as well. what is important, if we look at gold, is a lot of the safe haven
plays reversed as well, money coming out of gold. let's go to the big movers, those impacted by a potential trade war as the white house ramps up the talks and suggest, there is room for discussion. we saw boeing come off of a that byof 6%, slashed 1% at the close. apple concerned about components, came back with a positive close. century aluminum was down 4%, came positive. and u.s. steel came back almost flat. one more time into the bloomberg, i will switch charts and look at how soybeans have been impacted. the soybean next is the title, you can find this at gtv . line is the soybean exports, which has come down a little bit. china saying it would impose a 25% duty on soybeans has many
concerned. yvonne: really targeting trump country. asia, looks like we can be relaxing after the quick turnaround, more than 700 points on the dow. pretty much flat on the nzx 50. a strong bid into the kiwi overnight as well. take a look at australia, an hour away, futures up 0.4%. yields following treasury yields higher, abbvie two basis points on the aussie tenure. we are counting down to opens in japan and korea as well. stocks could see a bounce back of 1% on the nikkei 225. .78, pretty steady. we have been stuck at this rate for the dollar-yen. it will be a quiet day in asia as well. region,ng across the all on holiday for the festival.
let's get the first word news with courtney collins. she joins us live from new york. >> facebook says the data of as many as 87 million people may have been improperly shared with cambridge analytica. it is the first official confirmation of the possible size of the scandal, which was initially put at around 50 million users. also admitted scanning links and images people send on messenger, and reading charts flagged to moderators. it says is to ensure content abides by the rules. >> i am the first to admit we did not take a broad enough of view of what our responsibilities are, but i often think it is important to keep in mind, there are billions of people who love the services we are building because they are getting real value, building relationships and connecting on a day-to-day basis. that is something i am proud of our company for doing and i know we will keep doing that.
>> apple said to be working on a touchless control for future iphones to help it stand out in an increasingly crowded market. we are told the feature would allow users to perform some tasks by moving a finger close to the screen. the technology is at least two years away, even if apple chooses to go ahead. they are also working on an oled screen that can be curved or folded. that is also about two years away. the oracle boss said to discuss amazon and a huge pentagon contract over dinner with trump. she said the cloud computing deal looks designed a liberally for amazon. catz says he wants their competition, but said he would not intervene. a series of tweets recently attacking amazon and chief executive jeff bezos. president trump has told the national guard to send troops to the mexican border to assist
local agents on patrol. the department of homeland security declined to say how many personnel would go or how long they would stay, but said the deployment would be strong. the move follows the presidents warning to mexico he would abandon nafta unless he gets assurances on help securing the border. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. ♪ ramy: thank you very much. let's talk more on tariffs, a possible trade war. concerns are escalating after china matched the white house's proposed tariffs on chinese goods. president responded with anything but a conciliatory tone. kathleen hays is here with more. anything less than conciliatory in those tweets? kathleen: let's face it, this is donald trump's style.
he says it is a trade war, the u.s. has already lost it. when china came out against the proposed tariffs, here is what donald trump said on twitter. let's take a look. he says that we are not in a trade war with china, that war was lost years ago. now we have a trade deficit of $500 billion a year with intellectual property theft of another $300 billion. we cannot let this continue. youent on to tweet, how can not win if you have already? lost is -- how can you win if you have already lost? there is a 60 day comment period, before the white house can impose these tariffs. kudlow in an interview with bloomberg says, the u.s. tariffs on china are still
proposals, not in place yet. he underscores the door is open. i thought about the art of the deal -- is that what donald trump is up to? these trumpet tariffs, are they the art of the deal, or just bad deals? [laughter] could it be when you were talking about the economy? everyone is saying, it will not do much to the economy now, it is still small, but the dallas fed came out with a study on tariffs and what they will mean. let's see what they came up with, publishing it today. it will cut long-run gdp by 25 basis point. not much, but a full-blown trade war to cut u.s. gdp by 3.5%. they also conclude there is good in a full-blown
trade war. they said the u.s. trade deficit would fall to zero. wow. i don't know if anyone would want to go through that to get there. in some extreme ways there may be some logic here. it sheds away from conventional wisdom that perhaps it will not dent the economy, it will impact confidence, if anything. good perspective, thank you. let's go to washington and bring in joe sobczyk, watching these trade tensions the last 24 hours or so. is its going to happen or all just posturing for political effect? joe: as kathleen mentioned, some of the president's advisers seem to be polishing off a few edges of the rhetoric and suggesting, we have time to negotiate yet. there is another 60 days before this takes effect. you have to look at past history. threatened to blow up
nafta, do away with the south korean trade pact, and impose the steel and aluminum tariffs. what we found, they are moving fairly quickly toward an agreement in principle on nafta, without major changes in the accord. the south korean trade pact was wrapped up quickly without major changes. and there were a number of temporary changes to the steel and aluminum tariffs that muted the impact of those. is this a negotiating ploy? it may well be. both sides have left themselves a room and time to back away. ramy: that is part of the art of the deal. and terms of the concrete signs we are seeing, there are some from the administration about -- walk us through what we're seeing here. trauma -- trump has been
upfront about his pronouncements on policy, not just trade, but domestic policies. negotiate andsers maneuver behind the scenes and take the edge off of that. where theyperiod have 60 days where the u.s. tariffs are up for comment. they will take the comment from the public as well as lawmakers. many republicans have been a bit up in arms about this. in the meantime, they can have space to negotiate some sort of accommodation with china. there is certainly some measures that both side could take, save face, we accomplished what we set out to do, and avoid a full-scale trade war, which interestingly enough, particularly with china, when hit a lot of places that are republican stronghold in the
u.s. yvonne: we have been talking about soybeans ad nauseam already. that is in the heart of trump voting land. we will see how this plays out. joe sobczyk, thank you very much. still ahead, without a touch, apple looks to change the way we interact with of the iphone. we will be in san francisco later this hour. yvonne: does china dump its treasury holdings in retaliation? we discuss possible situations with thierry wizman. this is bloomberg. ♪
we are expecting more than a 1% bounceback. we have heard trade tensions the a bit with china and the u.s., signaling there is breathing room for talks. this is "daybreak asia." i am in hong kong. ramy: i am ramy inocencio in new york. china could retaliating by hitting the u.s. where it hurts, by dumping its treasury holdings. our next guest thinks that is unlikely, says there is a risk to the financial market. let's bring in the macquarie group strategist thierry wizman. you said it is unlikely about dumping. why not? >> it would not be in china's interest to dump treasury bonds. holding, $1.25ge trillion. if they were to dump, they would suffer losses on those because there is not enough bidding on the other side to support crisis in the face of a massive dump.
i do not think it is in their interest in that respect. they could conceivably cause a in the dollar, not just by virtue of them selling the bonds, but other managers frontrunning them and selling their own bond holdings into currency assets. that would hurt the dollar. that would not be in the interest of china at this time. ramy: i read one thing they can do is currency manipulation with the cny. thierry: that is more likely. i should say, both of these possible -- possibilities are remote. they are worst-case scenarios. it is more likely they would use the fx lever to affect policy goals. the chinese still believe the value of the cny, the chinese yuan, is still within their purview. we have a china -- we have a u.s. treasury report coming out in a little bit.
we do not know if they will be labeled a currency manipulator in that report. they are unlikely to do anything before that report, trying to avoid antagonizing the u.s. yvonne: it is going to hit the point i wanted to make, in this chart, gtv . it talks about what we have seen in terms of u.s. treasury holdings. we compare it to the renminbi. the yellow line and the red circle, that valuation, we cannot quite get it out of our heads. it is in the back of all investors' minds. if we see retaliation on the renminbi side -- to what extent could it weaken the currency as a bargaining chip? i know you say it is more of a nuclear option, but the chinese have been mindful in reforming the renminbi to be more market-driven. a result ofis conceding to demand from the rest of the world, especially
with respect to their capital account. if china is in a trade war with the rest of the world, why should they concedes the u.s.' demands to liberalize, which is where most of the emphasis -- impetus has been coming from? that chart is interesting because i used it to show that hashe past, when the yuan chinese treasury holdings have gone up as a way of trying to stabilize the yuan. and vice versa on the way down for the cny in the latter part of that period. casee: it could be a hard to sell, to label china a currency manipulator, now that we see added significance to these policies this month. are there other asian currencies on your radar -- malaysia, thailand, could they be more willing or likely to be on that list?
thierry: south korea could be on that list. south korea has not been named as a currency manipulator, but a currency watch come -- country. the bank ofuspicion korea comes into the market to stabilize the value of the won against the dollar, and therefore it could be named. yvonne: they are having a side agreement, the u.s. and south korea, on possibly linking this with fx
what else will you be seeing for a clue the u.s. is perhaps looking for a weaker dollar policy? thierry: i don't think there will be any clues in this particular report about the u.s. trying to attain a weaker dollar because that would be the pot calling the kettle black. the u.s. does not want to be seen as promoting a currency manipulation strategy in a report aimed at major trade partners, with regards to their fx policies. f the report is called thex policies of major trading partners in the u.s. it is meant to be a warning to other countries that manipulate. the u.s. will not suggest it will in this report. ramy: earlier we had a guest from morgan stanley. i want to hear your reaction. >> it is difficult to quantify exactly what economic outlook at this point, just talk around trade protectionism, it is very easy to quantify if they follow through, what impact that might happen on gdp. effects that can impact the economic outlook, even if they do not follow through. ramy: looking at the $25 billion b, how much pain could that be? thierry: in terms of inflation, not too much. we have $2.5 trillion worth, we
are talking to percent or so of total u.s. imports. if you slap a tariff on that, may be a 0.01 percent move up. consumers will be facing a little more inflation. they're real wages would go down by a commensurate amount. compared to the after-tax effect coming from tax reform, this would be the minimus, a very small shock. ramy: what would it take to make something happen? thierry: you would notice the effect in the data if you had a 25% tariff on maybe four times as much as what we are seeing now. maybe up to $200 billion worth. , thank youry wizman
♪ yvonne: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. sony will post a gain of almost $1 billion in its take of spotify. the company had its first trading day. and other music companies bought into spotify several years ago. it owns 5.7% before tuesday's listing and sold little less than 1/5 of that. ramy: lyft is testing a subscription service, in two
to chargees, hoping by the month instead of per ride. shoppers from searching the best price out there. in theority of traffic future in the u.s. will be based on a subscription plan. nvidia anb and nvidia -- saw a boost. beijing-based company is aimed at ethereum mining. it is powerful as two processing units. ramy: we will head to the tech world. up to 87 million facebook users may have had their data shared with cambridge analytica. that is up from the original estimate of some 50 million.
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7:30 a.m. this morning in hong kong. not a lot of people at work today. there is the festival, a holiday here in hong kong. for much of the week, it seems quiet on the streets. we are 30 minutes away from asia's first major market open. ramy: it looks beautiful over there. it is 7:30 in the evening in new york. markets closed surprisingly higher after the tit-for-tat between china and the u.s. the s&p 500 up. the dow, a turn of more than 700 doors, after it seemed the
was open for negotiations between washington and beijing. i am ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. you are watching "daybreak asia ." administration has indicated it is willing to negotiate with china as trade tensions escalate. beijing announced reciprocal tariffs on u.s. products in line with the $50 billion of duties ordered by president trump. china is targeting soybeans, automobiles, chemicals and aviation and says the measure will take effect when the u.s. institutes its own tariffs. >> china will not back up its 2025 program. hard,l work very irrespective of american tariffs, to make sure they develop the holiday -- develop. that.re pursuing
some of them are not fair, but some of their are. in the u.s. we have to develop our technologies much better. warning theials potential trade war as uncertainty to an otherwise great economic outlook. while it is too early to see what it might mean for jobs, inflation and policy. james bullard there is some downside risk and that could keep rates lower for longer. brainard also thinks it adds to uncertainty. boeing shares fell on china's tariffs, but says its most popular upgraded 737 will be exempt. it would narrowly escaped levies based on weight limits outlined by beijing. the bigger threat is for older 737's and gulfstream private jets. china needs airplanes for its travel demand.
bylywood could also be hit trade war. overseas ticket sales saved the day last year with the worldwide box office growing 5% to $40 billion. international markets account of a large percentage revenue and all of the growth. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am courtney collins. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: we are counting down to major market opens after the quick turnaround in the u.s. session. let's get the sophie kamaruddin. they say it is a game of chicken between the u.s. and china. >> more noise asian investors might shrug off. consolation may come from fed
officials saying they could slow rate hikes, should the trade outlook dent global economic growth. are characterizing the back-and-forth as playground insults that are no big deal from a macroeconomic perspective. the yen has gone nowhere. an indication it has been narrow. not appearencies do to be doing much. they are selling and asking questions later. festivalthe ching ming today, so we will not see how companies are affected by the latest development, but i will be looking at the metals complex. overnight, we saw copper prices fall 1%. this is demand falling over the china-u.s. spat. the global transport sector
accounts for 13% of revenue, used in everything from washing machines to magnets. yvonne: you could talk about industrials that will be hit. your. being close what else is on the agenda? >> we had south korea's current account balance, that could improve the mood of stock traders. it is now at 17 months, despite the trade shift. the r.b.i. expected to hold on its policy rate, which could keep the bond party going. we have trade data due from australia and malaysia. the aussie dollar rising a third cents. u.s. just some things to keep an eye out for. ramy: still a few things out there, regardless of what is happening with china, taiwan and hong kong being closed.
revealed that up to 87 million users may have had their data improperly shared with cambridge analytica. compare that to the 50 million originally out. zuckerberg told reporters on a conference call he is confident the social network is making progress on security. >> i am the first to admit we did not take a broad enough view of what our responsibilities were, but i think it is also important to keep in mind, there are billions of people who love the services we are building because they are getting real value, able to build connections and relationships on a day-to-day basis. proud ofomething i am our company for doing and we will keep doing that. for more, let's go to san francisco to talk with sarah frier. walk us through the details. theacebook is here saying, worst-case scenario, this 87 million profiles, is the highest
number it could be, based on their estimates. they have not done their own audit into the situation, they have not had access to him bridge analytica servers to see if they still have this data. they want to paint a picture of what is possible, ahead of the zuckerberg congressional testimony, set to happen next week. did he do enough in this call to alleviate concerns about what users are saying, this gap between what users think facebook is using on their data and what they are actually using? sarah: zuckerberg is trying to say they will do more in the future. they have seen the problems and they will close these gaps, but the gaps they have found -- revealing much worse problems we did not know about. i want to mention the scraping tool they found, how easy it was for people to scrape people's public information.
all they had to do with them put people's phone numbers or email addresses into facebook's search function to connect to those things to all its people's public facebook data to create a profile. they turned that function off, but the fact it was on for years means any number of facebook users, may be all of them, could have had their data scraped at some point. so that is pretty intense. yvonne: pretty disturbing, in fact. zuckerberg tofor testify in congress? is he going to be grilled? i think this media call was a good precursor of what we are going to expect from zuckerberg. he is going to get a lot of questions where he says, great question, and try to explain it in a forward-looking manner, trying to talk about how facebook is resolving these issues for the future, to make sure they do not happen again.
he will agree over and over they were not cognizant enough of the possibilities of harm in the past. congress will hammer at those many instances in which facebook did not track where its users data was going, looking for a third-party relationship. and the company cannot say exactly how many people were affected. yvonne: going to be an event we all will be watching next week. sarah frier, thank you. emily chang will speak to facebook's sheryl sandberg at facebook's headquarters in menlo park 3:00 p.m. -- menlo park. it will air at 3:00 p.m. thursday in new york. the race for artificial intelligence. working on bringing touchless control and curved screen said iphone. joining to mark gurman,
us from san francisco. joining us.r let's start with the curved screens. we heard about this from samsung, apple is just playing catch up here? mark: that is dead on. samsung phones have done this for some time, curved displays that curve on the left and right edges. apple is looking for an opposite curve, and inward curve on the top and bottom, very gradually, as an aesthetic addition. yvonne: on this touchless gesture control, i am imagining something like minority report where you are moving things around. how would this work and how far away is this, if it really did happen? mark: it would be a new dimension. there is 3-d touch and that allows you to have it -- a harder press, and a fourth dimension that allows you to hover your finger over the
display in order to do some actions. i might be able to hover my finger over your contact and it would give me additional information, versus having to actually touch it. alex barinka said this could avoid getting your screen smudged if you are eating chicken wings or something. [laughter] so there is that element to it, as well. google'sle also hired top ai executive. he needs to do a lot to catch up, doesn't it? mark: yes, the home pod looks great, sounds great. same with iphone, the interface with siri is nice. but the way it presents information, how would understand your questions, how it talks back to you, it really needs work in comparison to google and amazon alexa. it is not a problem unless there
♪ >> the president has a lot of conviction on this issue and is determined to get better trade deals for the u.s. -- ank he is willing willing participant in willing to press much harder than we are used to for better trade relations with the u.s. it is a bumpy ride for all of us, as these negotiations proceed. i do think we have entered a
new era between china and the u.s., but i am not expecting this to be what you saw announced over the past 24 hours, to be the end game. i think it is the opening of these negotiations. >> dealing with this and to addressway fundamental issues rather than applying tariffs to each other is clearly the better way. it will be in everybody's best interest. it is not just for the advantage of the emerging economies -- disadvantage of the emerging economies, it is bad news for everybody. ramy: just some of the many voices we have had on bloomberg today. talking about a potential trade were between the u.s. and china. lots of opinions for lots of experts. this is "daybreak asia." i am ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: i am yvonne man in hong kong. markets erased many losses by the close.
with aiscuss all that senior fellow at the council of foreign relations. failure touthor of, adjust, how americans got left behind in the global economy. it seems the conventional wisdom is this is all smoke, not fire. china to the negotiating table. are we making the right call that this will all work out? >> there is time for it to work out. the u.s. will not move quickly to impose the tariffs and china will not move quickly to retaliate. the question is, can a deal be done? the u.s. is challenging china's investment law, technology transfer provisions, fundamental things for the chinese economy. it is not clear what the deal would look like. there is time to do it, but once
you make that threat, that raises the threat that both sides will do something. we are in a period of uncertainty. yvonne: who gets hurt the most? if china is targeting soybeans, , how big of a hit will it be? to see whatave happens. before anything happens, it will have price effects, uncertainty. to potentiallyve look for other markets in hedge against the possibility. this is not going to make people happy and a lot of places that were very strongly for the president. gettingral notion of tougher on trade against china is reasonably popular. the question is how the president can finesse this to maintain that status of looking
like he is taking a tough approach without hurting the people who voted for him. this the right policy approach? larry kudlowr from and wilbur ross saying, we have room for negotiations. who is the adult in the room at the moment? edward: i am not sure they know what their strategy is. it is important to stand back from this. over the last month we have moved from a system of global trade rules in which most countries played by the rules, worked out their disputes through the wto, the dispute settlement system. now these high profile bilateral threats, we are in a completely different era with respect to trade policy, than we were just five or six weeks ago. none of us know how that will play out. you have folks in the administration saying, don't worry too much, it is just tough
talk, we are trying to get negotiating leverage. the only way to make a credible threat is to back it up. the danger of a trade war is far higher. ramy: definitely in terms of initial reaction. i was trying to read them between the lines, china as well as the united states. -- he said theon door is open to negotiations and we know through chinese history, there is more saber rattling. it almost seemed as if they went big and small very quickly. when you look at what the chinese side is saying now, what is your take away? question the is no chinese want a deal here. they have no interest in an escalating trade conflict with the u.s. it does not serve china's
near-term or longer-term economic goal. if they do not send a clear message they are prepared to stand up to the u.s., this administration will walk all over them. that is the delicate dance. yet, what not know does this administration want from china in exchange for not going down this road of tariffs escalation? until we know, it'll be hard to say if the odds of a deal are good or not so good. ramy: donald trump famously said it is easy to win trade wars. in your head, what would be a win for the united states? edward: i think a win would be to find a face-saving way out of this that does persuade the chinese to tackle these long-standing problems. it is easy to forget with of the u.s. picking trade fights, there are a lot of complaints, they have been from many different countries, about chinese
investment restrictions, heavy chinese subsidies. they have are problems that need to be addressed. the best outcome would be a deal where we do not get escalation. genuine steps by the chinese to move on these issues hopefully as part of a longer-term package of reform. just saying that, it is clear that is a big ask. it will not be easy to get there. yvonne: you start off the conversation saying it'll be hard, especially when it comes to made in china 2025, this industrial policy which speaks to the heart of their industrial agenda. china has a massive market, they can still sell to the rest of the world as well. is the impact pretty limited? edward: it depends how far it goes. china is less a vulnerable than the trump administration believes.
if the u.s. had done this 10 years ago, it would have had more leverage because china was more dependent on the u.s. market. but, they have a fast-growing domestic market and there are a lot of ways in which it can cause pain in the u.s. you can target soybeans or boeing aircraft. trade wars are not particularly easy to win for the u.s. i think china is in a stronger position than a lot of people in the administration believe, and therefore more likely to stand up to these u.s. threats rather than backing down easily. yvonne: everyone keeps saying, if the markets are down, president trump might backtrack trade policies. i have to wonder if that is still the case. now that we see despite the volatility in the markets, trump's approval has been improving for much of last month. he is not going to be deterred.
edward: being tough on trade is genuinely -- generally popular, here in the u.s. and china. there are political incentives to keep ratcheting up the rhetoric. this is an old issue for president trump. he did not just wake up two years ago and say i will focus on the trade issue. he has been talking about this back to the mid-1980's, when he said the u.s. was losing trade to japan. a very old issue for him. i do not think he will be dissuaded by the market gyration of the day. i think he will go down this road as far as he can and see what comes up the other side. yvonne: thank you, edward alden. subscribers, you can interact with charts. just go to gtv . they link back to the interviews and conversations in our shows.
♪ yvonne: this is "daybreak asia." i am yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: i am ramy inocencio. hsbc bosses considering pulling back from more markets, further drinking the banks global footprint. the ceo and the chairman are reviewing up to one quarter of the 67 countries hsbc has at present, and may quit bermuda, malta and oracle wide. -- uruguay. yvonne: the battle for australia's energy future continues, the prime minister theng agl to extend
lifespan of a coal station by five years. they want to replace it with renewable gas. they say it is too risky for the national grid. rival companies have signaled interest in buying liddell. sands ceolas vegas can breathe easier. his salary has been more than doubled to $26 million. last yeara new deal that quintupled his salary to $5 million. perks.d some other world 20th richest person. yvonne: stocks recovered from trade war fears. the outlook for asia in about 10 minutes time. plus, we look at president xi's
♪ >> 8:00 a.m. in hong kong. we are live in bloomberg's asian headquarters. welcome to "daybreak asia." asia-pacific sought -- stocks set to rise after the trump is willing to negotiate. it won't be pushed around, but the door is open to talks. >> from bloomberg's global headquarters, i'm remy inocencio, it's just past 8:00 p.m.. the trade as uncertainty. james bullard warns that could mean rates stay low. the tariffs could have
unexpected consequences, it could be a new headache for shinzo abe. ♪ dayt's set to be a quiet one hong kong explodes for the sweeping holiday. it has all been quiet. we haven't seen a lot of volatility coming through in the currencies. jpmorgant shows the global volatility index. it has really been sideways for the month of march and start of this month. it seems like any kind of volatility we get is quite limited to the stock market, bond markets are shrugging off the angst.
perhaps we are limited on where this could spread. the rallyre seeing and turnaround in the equity market. remy: not only the currency markets, but also the bond markets. the u.s. tenure was flat foremost of the day. it caught a couple of bits at it is interesting to see that maybe we have to take a look at the bonds. >> china having used a bargaining chip. newst's get the first word with paul allen. says the daughter -- 87 million people may have been properly shared. this is the first confirmation of the possible scandal, which was initially thought to be 50 million users. scanning theitted links and reading chats flagged to moderators.
it says it is to ensure the content abides by the rules. first to admit we didn't take a broad enough view of what our responsibilities were. i also think it is important to keep in mind that there are billions of people who love the services because they are getting real value and be able to build relationships. that is something i am proud of our companies are doing. i know we are going to keep on doing that. paul: apple is said to be working on touchless controls for future iphones to help it stand out in an increasingly crowded market. it would let users perform some tasks by moving a finger close to the screen. the technology is at least two years away, even if they choose to go ahead. they are also said to be working on an led screen that can be curved or folded. oracle boss is said to have discussed amazon and a huge pentagon contract with president
trump. sources say she complained the cloud computing deal looks to be designed deliberately for amazon. we are also told the president wants fair competition, but made no indication he would intervene. he had released a series of tweets attacking amazon and jeff bezos. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm paul allen, this is bloomberg. yvonne: let's take a look at how markets are trading. japan and korea coming online. bouncing back on the major benchmarks. we have an update with sophie. >> the 225 adding 1.1% this morning. this is health care and leave gains. it is holding losses after swimming with others. a few reasons for asian equity investors to have to shrug off the trade tip as we saw wall
street do. we are seeing costs in korea to decline after falling to a march 7 low on wednesday. analysts have in cutting their first quarter earnings estimates of korean companies, mostly samsung. we got the latest card account balance, that might be some reason for equity investors in korea to have optimism. shares areaussie rising after a four-day drop. several stocks trading ex-dividend. we are going to be waiting on the latest trade balance and pmi. aussie dollar holding a seven of for the third straight day. taiwan is online, seeing some volatility as traders could to insults between china and the u.s. seeing its bike above the 631 handle, it is yet to be seen as a trade war weapon. it may not break decisively into
a higher trading range. ramy: let's continue to talk about tariffs and this possible trade war. the concerns we are talking about have been escalating. president trump responded with a couple of tweets that demanded action on trade, stopped short on hurling new threats. kathleen hays is here with more. cap lane, walk us through. athleen: u.s. says $50 billion of goods will get 25% tariffs. donald trump it's up in the morning, hits his twitter button, and here is what he said. not in a trade war with china, that was lost many years ago by the foolish or incompetent people. now we have a trade deficit of $25,000 a year, with property
theft of another $300 billion. we cannot let this continue. when you are already $500 billion down, you cannot lose. he is saying you already lost" he is still obviously wanting china to lose. is this a game of chicken, or the beginning of something that will escalate? there is a 60 day public comment period. they have to let everybody weigh in. the new white house economic adviser, larry kudlow, was speaking to reporters all day. he said things like these tariffs are proposals, they are not in place. china's u.s. ambassador said negotiations would still be our preference. it seems like maybe the dance has started and we will see where it takes them. seem whenof tune they they come out. yvonne: what if they don't prevail and the tariffs are
connected? ,> at this point, tariffs concern, volatile stock markets,, people say it adds risk, but it is not thinking the u.s. economy. and trade,tariffs and what it could mean for the u.s. economy is interesting. aluminum and steel tariff, they could cut long run gdp by 0.25%. a full blown trade war with the u.s., it europe, everybody gets in and hurls tariffs at each other, that is a gdp of 3.5%. they said it could be very damaging. the trade deficit would fall to 0%. nothing to change the feds three to four rate hike debate this year. jim bullard answering questions
after a speech he gave earlier. he said expect a bumpy ride as donald trump presses on trade issues. the fed board governor said trade is uncertain. it is something to put into the .est trade he also said there is a growing consensus that china has not been a fair player since it joined the world trade organization in 2001. that everyo long ago economist said free trade is the best. it's the only way you can go, it raises growth. to a certain , it does. trade have another deficit between the china and economists are legitimate -- say there are legitimate issues that have to be met. yvonne: that will be interesting
to see what jay has to say -- jay powell has to say. yvonne: president trump plans to impose tariffs on a number of chinese products, and it could have consequences for japan. let's get our japan and korea reporter. we have seen them not exempt from steel and aluminum tariffs, what does shinzo abe have to worry about now? there is the general concern about uncertainty and the prospect of escalation. if japanese countries have sourced a lot of their production in china, the u.s. since goods could be subject to tariffs, as well. goods start displacing chinese goods because of these tariffs, especially in the high-tech sectors, that will increase japan's with the united
states, which is a political liability. it is something the trump administration has been focused on with regards to other countries. yvonne: it speaks to how these policies are hurting some of the allies of u.s. and china. what are the options for japan? >> its most direct option is to try to persuade president trump and the administration that these tariffs are not in the u.s.'s interest. prime minister of a will meet with trump to press this case. japan can try to move forward on that arehe trade deals waiting to be finished in asia, such as the tpp 11. it could put the u.s. in a relatively disadvantaged position when it comes to trade. it might incentivize it to come
back to the traditional international trading order. ramy: it seems like a catch-22 for japan, one way or the other. where does the country stand in this dispute between washington and beijing? >> that's one of the ironies. japan broadly agrees with the u.s. that there are a lot of concerns when it comes to china, especially with steel, steel production, and intellectual property infringement. they don't agree with washington's new approach to solving these issues. japan would like to see it hatched out in a multilateral forum, or with the european union, then they can bring international pressure together against china.
this hasn't happened, just the threat looming. we will see how it pans out. ahead, aspect venture's co-founder treats us to dive into the future of china's tech sector as president xi jinping pushes his own made in china 2025 strategy. yvonne: up next, investors shrug off u.s. china trade pensions. how asian markets are faring in the spat. this is bloomberg.
capital investors has assets under management. always good to see you. is remarkable how this turnaround has been. can it hold, or is there more danger ahead? >> i'm reasonably hopeful we can hold it. we have seen a lot of support build around the lows for the s&p 500. the u.s. came to those levels back in february, and more recently they managed to hold. that is a good sign that maybe those lows have held, and we are seeing more upside. in terms of the specific issues around trade, this issue is going to be bubbling for a while yet. i'd didn't s -- i didn't see any surprises yesterday in terms of what they have done.
the americans have said within 15 days the trade representative would produce a list. it is on $50 billion of u.s. imports from china, not to raise $50 billion, less than some people had feared. china has done the same thing, going the other way. we are now down to the point where the issue is where there we are going to see negotiation -- whether we are going to see negotiation. we probably will. at this point, we have a while to go. at least the market knows where we are going. these things are out there, and hopefully it is largely impacted. even if tariffs -- even if like whenfs go ahead, nick send it when there was an import -- this is a tiny fraction of that.
that weonably hopeful are going to avoid a trade war. fingers crossed. yvonne: you put your economist and investor hat on, we talk about how this is not going to be good. certainly we have seen as an investor there is sentiment. how do you construct a reasonable portfolio for the year when every day there is something different in the headlines? more cash, rotating out of equity? what has changed in the last .4 hours -- 24 hours? confidence bit more that maybe markets may have bottomed, but these issues will linger. it is an election year in the u.s., president trump is in and doingode, saying the things he was talking about in 2016.
the news, along with wherever the miller -- mueller inquiry may go. you have to talk about volatility when it is appropriate. i would suggest waning towards growth assets, the economy is still doing well. we have earnings reporting's coming up in the u.s., which is likely to be strong. the fundamentals look good. maintain position toward growth assets, shares in particular. on top of that, have some sort of option protection in place to the extension to buy options at the moment. if it goes longer, the cost goes up. you may want to consider protecting your portfolio's. it is not the time to be peddled to the metal in terms of growth assets or sales -- h-shares, but ithink -- or shares, but
think we should be reasonably thinking about shares. yvonne: you mentioned about earnings season about to kick off. estimates start to -- thisis bar of 2018 part of 2018. now i think have slowed down a bit, you said it could be much of a catalyst. >> it could be. it will take us back to profits to some degree. the market will say this is going on, we will probably see a good overall number. the consensus is proper growth of around 7% or 8%. i don't think the full impact of tax reform has been fully factored. isouldn't be surprised if it -- for 25% for the 12 the four quarters to the march quarter.
i think that will be a strong boost for share markets. when we started this year, it was messy in a share markets. given the correction we have upright general profit expectations, it has come down to around 16 times. you have seen a significant improvement in the u.s. share market. that combined with likely good news on profits, should help the u.s. markets in the months ahead. ramy: if we are able to put the juggernaut of this possible trade war aside. a lot of people in the united states are looking ahead to friday with the jobs numbers and its ramification on fed hikes, 180,000 is what folks are expecting. what are your thoughts on that and the possible overshoot or
undershoot of how that may affect the fed? adp employment ain of overnight show a g 241,000. that has a mixed record. for private sector jobs it is still a high number. there is upside to the payroll number for that expectation of 190,000. i think a lot of interest is going to be on the wages. think back to february, the wage numbers came on the high side. the recovery was around 2.9%. when we get the march numbers, those fall back to 2.6%. somebody says they will not worry about it, no threat to rising inflation from rising wages growth. i think the numbers that come
out on friday night will probably showed a a renewed pickup. that is a the case, gentle rising trend in wages growth. ultimately i think it is consistent with the fed continuing to raise rates. we remain of the view that the fed will raise rates four times this year, of which they have only done one, rather than trade what the market is allowing four. ramy: we had jim bullard on air earlier, he is one of the more dovish folks at the fomc, especially with it looping back around to the trade tensions. when do you think we could have clarity on whether it could be three or four? everyone is uncertain. we have the 60 day comment period. i was thinking maybe at the june meeting. many will probably see the fed
raising rates. we may have more clarity by that stage around the trade issue. presuming we have not embarked on a full-blown trade war and there has been successful negotiations, and that -- the tariffs are not implemented. then we will proceed with probablyike in june, at the same time you will see fourot clock shift up to hikes. it only requires one extra fed officials to change their expectations from three to four. it is a bit wide at the moment as to whether it is three or four. just to say one more goes over the line, the median will become four. my expectation is that will probably come in the june
meeting. even, 6-6. we will see how that settles. investors head of investment strategy and chief economist. you can get a roundup of the stories a you need to know to get your day going in today's daybreak. subscribers go on their terminals, it is also available on the mobile at. customize your settings to get news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ singapore -- in 8:30 in singapore. the line city could be joining the equity balance that we saw starting in the u.s.. we are going to open up trading. i'm yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: i'm remy inocencio in new york. you're watching "daybreak asia." let's get the first word news with paul allen. paul: the trump administration has indicated it is willing to negotiate with china as trade tensions escalate. china announced reciprocal tariffs on u.s. products in line with the $50 billion of duties ordered by president trump. china is targeting soybeans,
automobiles, chemicals, and aviation. it will take effect when the u.s. institutes its own tariffs. >> china will not back off from its 2025 program. they are going to work hard irrespective of american tariffs to make sure they develop the economy and future technologies. we are not going to be able to slow that down. some of their practices of pursuing that 2025 are not fair, but a lot are fair. we have to start developing our technologies at a much better pace. paul: fed officials are warning the potential trade war as uncertainty to an otherwise bright economic outlook. it is too early to say what it may mean for jobs, and policy. james fuller says there are downside risks. fed governor also thanks trade tensions and uncertainty.
china, but raised the losses due to its most popular upgrade being exempt. it would narrowly escape levies based on limits outlined by beijing. the bigger threat is for older 737's and private gulfstream jets. china needs new planes to test -- for rapid growth and travel demands. hollywood could also be hit by a trade war. overseas ticket sales with worldwide box office growing 5% billion. international markets now account for 73% of studio revenue and all of the growth. the movie industry could face backlash after president trump's complaint about beijing stealing intellectual property. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm paul allen, this is bloomberg. let's see how the asian markets are shaping up.
let's get an update with sophie. sophie: asian stocks are checking the rebound on wall street, optimism that u.s. and china can step back from a trade were. japan is leading regional gains as the yen hold a two-day loss. health care and real estate leading along with financials. four. for the first in aussie shares are halting a four-day dropped. we are seeing shifting moods -- moves in the currency market. won under the pressure. this morning on the korea from, we got the current account surplus narrowing in february. according to the trade ministry's data for march, korea's trade surplus fell by 41.5% as experts contracted 1%. exports to china from korea grew 16.6% in march. we have had the offshore yuan on
the six spot, 29 level against the dollar. this as china ups the ante on the trade. we have the kiwi dollar making those following the new zealand budget hosting. want to highlight oil, advancing after u.s. stockpiles registered the biggest weekly drops since january. gold is out on the back. debt have sovereign falling in asia, tracking what we saw in u.s. treasuries. ramy: thank you very much. let's head over to seattle. process for huge pentagon cloud computing contract has been criticized during a private dinner with president trump. she says the deal is perfectly designed for amazon. let's hope it covers. amazon for bloomberg.
i think investors want to get to the heart of this and know who is best competitively. is it amazon, is it oracle? >> if it is structured the way everyone will believe, as a single provider contract, where provider,to end, one amazon will be the front runner because it is the biggest in the world. what the oracle ceo, and other cloud competitors have, been trying to influence the process by saying let's take this contract instead of giving it all to one provider and break it down. that gives everybody a better chance of winning a slice of the pie. yvonne: it is interesting to see if the president is listening to the oracle ceo. there is a lot of legal
implications. the president can't exactly interfere with a contract like this. >> not supposed to, and shouldn't, but when you have a president who is hammering away at a company on his twitter account, then your appointee overseeing operations appointed by the president, you have to wonder if the influences it, even if it is not direct. how big of a blow would it be if amazon did not get this bid? you talked about how massive aws is, it has been a cash cow for amazon and helped them offset international expansions. amazon web services is diversified. any onetomer base, contract will not put them under. this is a huge contract. multibillion dollars over it
motivate number of years -- a multi-number of years. you provided just about all the company's profit. contractd be a sizable for aws or any cloud provider to get. spencer covers amazon for us, joining us from seattle. we are to the latest rbi rate decision due on thursday. let's bring in bloomberg's leader in coverage of the southeast economy from singapore. we are not expecting any moves in terms of policy, but it should be a change in language, right? right, the expectation is the rate will be left unchanged at 6% as most all economist we have spoken to have said.
there, but the statement will be scrutinized. i think he will be the inflation outlook. it has come down since the r.b.i.'s previous rate decision in february. we will be watching very closely how they see the inflation outlook proceeding for the rest of the year. the r.b.i. has turned hawkish. in the last statement, we saw one of the npc members all in a rate increase. for now, the neutral stance is expected to remain. inflation, i think it will give economists an assessment of how soon the r.b.i. will be moving towards a rate increase. also very key will be the growth outlook. in the february statement, the r.b.i. was projecting gdp growth of 7.2% for the current fiscal
year. since then, we have had rising oil prices. app of trade got a tensions that will impact the global trade outlook. we also have india's biggest banking fraud. ont could possibly impact the outlook for the economy. we had goldman sachs analysts for the downgrading economy expecting gdp growth of 7.6% for this year. ramy: inflation is slowing, why is the r.b.i. hawkish? we have seen since the last inflation numbers coming out february that were below expectations at 4.4%. next week's data may be even lower.
bloomberg economists are expecting an inflation of but 4% for march. the r.b.i. and many economists think that inflation slowed down is improving. we can expect prices to start rising again. the main reason is we have rising oil prices. there is a large commodities, what happens to the oil prices has material impact on inflation outcome and growth outlook. the current deficit, for example. have arom oil, we also potential that potentially rising food prices. a lot will be seen during the upcoming monsoon season. the government has announced plans in it's budget that it will raise the support price for some crops. that will have an impact on prices going forward. economists we surveyed are
talking about inflation at 5.3% in the quarter through june. that is well above the 4% midterm target that the r.b.i. has. no doubt they would probably remain on the hawkish side on the inflation outlook. ramy: we are looking to the rate decision due on thursday. southeast asia economy reporter in singapore, thank you. threatump's tariff impact china's technology ambitions? we talk to theresa gao. this is bloomberg. ♪
but will this frustrate the plans? we are joined by the cofounder of aspect venture. she was just named forbes magazine's list for the seventh time. >> it's great to be here. ramy: let's hop into this. with this trade, tensions trade war happening between the u.s. and china, how much are you seeing this potentially impact xi jinping's attempt for china 2025? now, the trade war is focused on commodities and other manufactured goods. tech products are not on the table for now. things can escalate. that is always a risk. is verythe other part , china has been clear
about their goal to get to parity in 2020 and get to a leadership role by 2030 in artificial intelligence. they have been spending tremendous amounts of dollars at the national government level and local province and city level. ramy: you have written in the past that this is one of those things that he wants to do in terms of a new engine for the economy. do you think donald trump might want to look at this if he wanted to escalate this possible trade war with china? i'm definitely not a geopolitical expert, but from a technology perspective, i am not sure how having trade tensions in basic mighty goods and inputs would play into artificial intelligence. a lot of the leadership that the u.s. has is primarily at the softcore level. ofre is also the importance silica and, where we currently
-- silicon valley, where we currently have a lead. china has caught up, and in some ways somewhat say, have passed up in robotics. there are materials and components in those hardware devices. at the software level, it is hard to see how it would play directly. ramy: in terms of challenges, one of the big things is i.i. and security. what do you think is the biggest challenge that needs to be addressed? to ai andgard security, one of the biggest here, iss, as i see datad the ability to share amongst corporations. in the u.s., the large tech platform players, microsoft, google, amazon, are actually the
ones spending more than our government. perspective, funding has been decreased 10% this year, at a time when china is ratcheting up their governmental investments. i think the real challenge is going to be on cybersecurity in the u.s. how are large enterprises able to confidentially share information with one another so the cybersecurity defenses can be pooled together, rather than deal with isolated pools of data? artificial intelligence is based upon two things, data, information advantage. we have one of the largest cybersecurity networks from an enterprise perspective. are limitedmpanies with information they can share with one another. yvonne: we have seen facebook dealing with this data harvesting scandal, and amazon having its own troubles with the president. do you think the tech sector is
going through more of the next essential crisis on how these tech companies approach data and content? doubt, if there is no you look at the recent stock market volatility for all of the large bank stocks in the u.s., there is no question the market caps are under siege. with regards to the next , i think theset companies are investing a great data, security, and artificial intelligence knowledge. recentlook at the cambridge analytica situation, it is viewed as a privacy problem, less a data and security problem. the way forward is to think about it and approach it the way they do other data and cybersecurity breaches. there are a lot of great technology vendors and tools up
against that. relatively less, privacy has been viewed as something to be dealt with at a policy and regulation level, which still may be part of the solution. i think applying some of the smart tools to capture security data and apply it to these privacy problems is really a nice opportunity. yvonne: do you see the u.s. following what europe does and imposing more stringent restrictions, in terms of regulation? is there a big regulation risk here? >> that is certainly a risk. with europe, gdpr, which is a huge regulatory thing, is set to coming to fruition in may. there has been a lot of talk about big tech in the u.s. being self regulated, but when is it the right time or government to regulate? there are a lot of executives being called to have those conversations. i think europe definitely has always led from a regulation
perspective, but there is probably room for the u.s. to increase and close some of that gap. yvonne: we appreciate your insight, theresa gao of aspent ventures -- aspect ventures. don't forget the function tv . you can catch up on bloomberg. take a look at the charts we have throughout the hours on bloomberg television. this is for bloomberg subscribers only, but make sure to check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ yvonne: a quick check of our business flash headlines. bosses are considering pulling back from board markets, shrinking the bank's global footprints. chairmant and mark -- are looking at seven countries to where they have a presence. it may quit smaller operations, such as bermuda and uruguay. they are looking at expanding hsbc as a movement, and may merge with a rival. ramy: the battle for australia's energy future continues, with an ask for their powerstation to be extended for five years. they want to replace the facility to a mix of renewable and natural gas. they think that is too risky for the national grid tor rival companie.
vegas ceo can breathe easier. his salary has been more than doubled to $26 million. he signed a new employment deal last year that could quintuple the salary. increase has gone up by 50% to $12.5 million. he is the world 20th richest person in the world. ramy: let's do a quick look ahead. aussie finance ministers and central bankers are meeting this weekend. we are looking forward to hearing their thoughts on the trade war between the u.s. and china. the international correspondent for asia joins us. you have some pretty cool guests and conversations lined up. this meeting comes at a time of growing uncertainty. this is a region that is pretty dependent on trade.
both the u.s. and china are among the biggest trading partners for all of southeast asia. we will be speaking to the finance minister of indonesia. we will get her views on how indonesia may be impacted by this rising trade tensions between u.s. and china. --have had unofficial saying an official from indonesia saying a trade war could impact growth in the country. also, we will speak to the cfo of the world bank. we get his thoughts on how emerging markets may be impacted by possible outflows from the countries. we will also be speaking of financing for infrastructure in southeast asia. as the region have a nice, there finances.ng need for we are looking at about $180 billion per year. not enough funds are going into megaprojects. we find out why, and what
options are available. the head ofshow, investment and banking, giving uncertainty that volatility in the markets. many say it is not the end of a bull run, but what should you be doing? where should money be going? all of that will be addressed. our chief international correspondent for southeast asia haslinda almond joining us. for what's coming up on the next two hours. we will have the indonesian finance minister talking about trade. focus, a senior fellow at the institute. we ask him from an academic point of view to take a step back and have a look at what is going on. he suggested the u.s. has
legitimate complaints against china. japan,in the 1980's china is not japan as it was then. really what is the motivation behind donald trump's actions. it is typical that you really back.eacts, and dolls it is different this time,, appealing to his base. is certainly on the political side. isef economist for india joining us in about 1.5 hours with how they are looking at what happens next to the cost of borrowing. it is majority of economists say there will be a change. a lot say there needs to be -- yvonne: foreigners in the bond
market. >> also pmi services data. of what we have coming up. ramy: before we hand over to bloomberg markets, we look at how quick the markets are doing. the nikkei across the board, all catching. the nikkei up the tents of 1%. a ofurrent account surplus hours ago was up higher than expected. that's it for daybreak asia. our markets coverage continues next. stand by for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪
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