tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 13, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
of war. then emergency meeting of un security council, he accused all three nations of fabricated narratives to launch war and claimed the video of a suspected chemical weapons attack last leaked by first responders. western nations claim be suspected attack was carried out by the assad regime and are now contemplating a military strike. moscow has threatened to retaliate against any strike. --bers of the u.s. democratic members of the u.s. armed forces committee are calling on president trump to not procure -- refer to security decisions over tweets. >> war is not a reality television show, and should not be treated as such by the commander-in-chief of the greatest country in the world. for: lawmakers are calling congress to authorize any military strike the united states military may carry out in syria.
-- president trump ruths james comey an "unthrut ful slimeball." president trump fired comey last may. the president officially pardoned today a former top aide whoice president vheney, was convicted of obstruction of justice in 2007, stemming from an investigation into the leak of a covert cia operative. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am julia chatterley. reporter: i am scarlet fu. reporter: i am joe weisenthal. julia: soggy stocks are weakening. >> the question is, what'd you miss? arlet: wells fargo topped revenue, but the more time to clear the fallout from its fraudulent accounting scandal. we hear from john shrewsbury in the next hour. of athe financial details ramco. james comey compares president trump to a mob boss, while trump calles comey a "slimeball." julia: what'd you miss?
jpmorgan-chase business booming with their latest financial quarter results. wells fargo beat expectations use $1 billion to settle eight u.s. probe into its consumer business. ounder of a crowd sourced financial estimates platform with us. outperformed but the for performance -- performance today in the market was soggy. all of these banks had really been taking up into the reports, and these stocks have followed that. you get a couple of good reports from these banks, and we are seeing good upward movement in
morgan stanley and goldman. but outside of the fact the market took a dive late into the day, the banks put in outside reversals. they open high and closed low above the range of the previous day. aat is usually be bad sign -- bad sign for a reversal of a stock. scarlet: when we talk about estimates, it is often times the sell side. is this based on buy side or sell side estimates? allowsthe sell side 69% of companies on a quarterly basis to beat their estimates. you can measure the true magnitude of a beat or miss. joe: a lot of enthusiasm going into this earnings season, and they hope that earnings will help smooth estimates of
volatility return in the martin -- markets. guest yesterday said 2018 earnings are going to be awesome, but we priced those in when tax cuts were a huge part of this. are they all priced in? eigh: we will see 8% revenue growth, the best since february of 2011. it feels priced in, largely because we are trading about a multiple -- at a multiple in the s&p 500. cheap. bit 16.5% is the historical average. some of these industrial names, energy names that are having year-over-year numbers now
comes -- because they were so bad last year, it will be hard to replicate want to go forward a couple of quarters. the marketable project when they will slow. 4%, 5%, 6%. some ofou have listed the optimism we have seen it. capex increases multiple times, five times the amount in 2017. how much more good news can they give us in order to give us a when you can't really get above the breakeven point for the stocks of the year? the estimized date of the last couple of quarters has been super bullish. coming out ando
saying, we have never seen an upgraded cycle like this in spending. that is the economy throwing money at new technology products. we are still really bullish on but the macro environment could end up taking all of these stocks down. scarlet: we have to talk about technology. we were fixated on what mark zuckerberg set for two days and he did not say very much. will indicate whether #deletefacebook campaign took a toll on the numbers. you have semiconductors, old-school software companies. >> because the etf's are so big at this point, one will infect all of the others.
much money so through this market now, it will infect all of this. what is interesting with thebook, we collect forward-looking, four quarters of monthly active users. if you were going to see the expectation, the expectations growth,book losing user doing about 13%-14% monthly active users, if we were seeing expectations that would to celebrate, we would be getting nervous on the stocks. and how much can they raise prices for advertisements? monthly active users are not coming down. cheap, buts really the question is the word that mark zuckerberg will spending a lot of money to fix this problem
actually going? i don't think that is the case. scarlet: in terms of financials, not good? leigh: it will not impact the growth margins. joe: they did start to show some signs of deceleration in the last quarter. they had their first decline in north america. margins,in -- at the there are some signs. when you look at the whole picture, nothing indicates problems? leigh: the only way you will push this stock down if true legislation comes out that impacts the business model. does anyone really expect congress will get their act together? scarlet: they have a hard time agreeing on what facebook does.
leigh: it is not going to happen. they will continue to grow revenue at this pace. how thisder to see thing gets cheaper than it is. if it does, it will be a macroeconomic problem that impacted the market. at: let's say all tech falls once. opportunitieste for specific stocks to dislocate from time to time, let's say a chip company that wouldn't be affected at all by the regulatory changes? leigh: you say presidential tweets have zero impact on stocks, but amazon has been hit recently. are highly correlated within each sector. julia: you were looking at
behavioral finance and how sectors react. maybe we don't focus on this in the large day today discussion. specificere are models being run by a lot of quzantants. markets need to understand when those models get out of whack. models --ing these several months ago, the market was super extended and continued to be so. quants were bleeding and the market was talked down. one interesting technical pattern is that 200 day moving average. of theuff is in all models. below a 200 day
rising or falling moving average? you have to at least be awawre. thank you. speaking of earnings, we will be talking to the wells fargo cfo later on in the program. coming up, president trump is acting washington convention. bucking washington convention. how economic sentiment is waiting on his approval rating. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: like most things in washington, president trump turning convention on its head. -- petermore on this atwater, president at financial insights. you had your eye on a charge that i had my eye on. going up, youe would expect the presidential approval rating to follow. there has been an inverse correlation. we think there might be something there. i was here during the 2016 campaign, talking about an unusual relationship. as american consumers felt worse, trump's raintings in the polls went up.
popularity rose and fell with consumer confidence, but trump was the opposite. i have been watching to see whether this would -- the reverse correlation -- continue into his presidency. as you said, that is not the nixon's popularity rose and fell with the markets. approving,ump getting this tax legislation approved, and his popularity is continuing to fall. it pivots the week the legislation is approved. euphoria,his peak of his confidence is at the lowest. oe why: would it not have the typical relationship? it has to doof
with his personality. he really resonates with people with low confidence. he was analogized to harold hill man."the music all of these characters come to the fore during low confidence and there are personality types that really fit that, people with an enormous empathy -- there is a whole book on the characteristics you need for people who are leaders in crisis. trump really fits that. see him ranting about trade in putting pressure on china, -- and putting pressure on china, the less presidential he appears to be in a traditional sense, the more he resonates and his poll readings rise.
peter: when confidence is low, it is all about be here now -- x enophobia, issues of immigration. scarlet: talk about this, considering the president likes to use the stock market as a gauge for his own success. fascinating, been watching him try to navigate this enormous bifurcation in congress, to maintain his base and keep repelling the markets -- propelling their markets when their objectives are at odds. julia: he talked about positive market moves, but when he talked about the prospect of a trade war with china, he infuses the markets with nervousness and pushes it lower, that is supportive of his poll readings. he has to make a choice. soccerit is like a player, running from one end of the field to the other, changing his jersey mid-stride.
joe: let's talk about the aggregate. - how people feel about their finances is the highest since 2001, despite market volatility and anxiety about the trade war. what do you make about the surveys? peter: we are starting to see interesting trends. consumers say, things are fabulous. that would be consistent with the economic data. all of that fits. peahe fall, expectations ked. peakave the third lower in expectations of the future.
congress is forward-looking and that is what i focus on. the stock maybe market is losing some ground, along with investors. and the need to people were satisfied at once -- both sides satisfied at once. scarlet: if you shared your findings with the president, i wonder what he would say? keeping both sides at bay is a top job -- tough job. peter: it is exhausting for him and everyone else. we are reaching the point of narrative fatigue, with this binary reaction to every piece or terrible,eat good or awful. there is no evolution to the narrative and it is very impulsive and that is a reflection of growing fatigue on everyone's part. julia: his ability to be a aggressive on twitter --
scarlet: narrative fatigue. peter atwater, thank you. julia: now it is time for the biggest business flash. is continuing its campaign to keep amazon from winning the contract for the defense department's cloud contract. coalition of tech companies has been formed, including microsoft and hewlett-packard, to impose pressure to distribute the contract among multiple firms. jpmorgan joins the gun debate. the bank is cutting exposure to the gun industry significantly. a number of u.s. companies are reconsidering their ties with the gun industry and the nra after the florida high school shooting in february that led to 17 people dead. bank of america also said it would stop lending to certain firearm companies.
has banned sales of pure caffeine, citing health risks. a concentrated capsule contains 16 times the cap the recommended in a daze and serving a. the agency issued warning labels following the death of two young people who ingested the substance. online sales of similar products have seen an uptick. that is your bloomberg business flash. scarlet: coming up, zillow. how the listings website is buying real estate directly. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
it has been steadily holding at these levels through most of the afternoon. joining us taylor riggs. what happened to just listing homes for sale? reocvered -- recovered a little bit from this morning. wonder what analysts are thinking -- i wonder what analysts are thinking. morgan stanley was coming out strong against even margins. they are positive this year, about 12%. it was the first time you started to get positive even margins, about $300 million. morgan stanley said, if we get into 1% penetration, $350 million, let's see how that pans out. wereanalysts said --
mixed. capital heavy business. some said, we don't know. others said, this is good. joe: this seems kind of weird to me. >> [laughter] joe: this is kind of late-cycle. home prices are high, rates are rising. taylor: mortgage rates are rising, prices are high. sometimes you have to drop the price because mortgage rates are rising. capital spending on homes have been declining. but pending home sales are rising. you wonder if they are in this for the long term and there are some competitors. scarlet: so it is a defensive move.
"ulia: "what'd you miss? still in the red. banks leading the way down after j.p. morgan and wells fargo reported better numbers should i have julia chatterley. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: and i am joe weisenthal here we wanted to welcome you to our closing bell coverage, every weekday from 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. eastern. scarlet: we begin with our market minutes. week,g last, we end the and stocks fell during after noon trading. anticipation of bad news over the weekend. we are back to that kind of thinking again. joe: it is very much so, anxiety about what headline we cannot even possibly imagine will come out between now and sunday evening. in the end, not to bachelor scarlet: -- not too bad. leading the nasdaq
way could earnings season began in earnest this week with the big banks reporting care we are at jpmorgan, wells fargo, and citigroup all down in trading. jpmorgan firing on all cylinders. the environment is intensely competitive. by and large, the equity trading didome fairly well. wells fargo defined after warning its first-quarter results may change after meeting with federal regulators. we will be getting more details on wells' results with the ceo john shrewsberry later. looking at stamps.com, president trump creating a task force to evaluate u.s. postal service. .s. is a vendor for the u.s. postal service. we just talked about zillow. joe is skeptical of the company's new strategy of
flipping homes. joe: i don't have a position on it. [laughs] scarlet: it is something that raised concern among analysts as well. joe: let's look at the bond market, starting with the 10-year. what do you see? higher rates at the short end, lower rates of the long it, and that means lagging. andear yield down to 2.28%, we are in the range. we are higher of the short-term rate here. if we take a look at the two-ten spread, we get another low for the year, for the first time in the post-brexit lull. are there any anxieties about what it is called, the flip? inversion. there you go. julia: despite the curve flattening, the potential inversion that joe was mentioning, we did see a risk-on move. gainingsee is that is
in regard to the japanese yen. dollar-yen rising to the highest since february from the levels we have seen. eurois going on in the sterling, a lot of people watching. concerns about the data. analysts expecting the bank of england to raise rates through may. straightng to watch dollar mexico, you cannot get away without talking about a nafta negotiations. .7% stronger, the mexican peso, the biggest gainer of currencies come on track, just above the 18 level of the u.s. dollar. obvious optimism about that nafta deal. central banks holding rates on thursday, and they did maintain that hawkish buy. peso is now the second-best performing currency this year. joe: finally on the commodity front, oil and gold both up
today. it is not a huge move, but it is becoming a story. $67.25 as up .27%, barrel, and gold up modestly as well. let's take a quick look at brent crude, the one they trade in europe. chart, a five-year and we are close to levels that we have not seen since late 2014 there. over $72 a barrel on brent. keep your eye on the. those are today's market movers. "ulia: "what'd you miss? wells fargo may need a little more time to weather the storm. revenue beat analysts' estimates, but still down 1% from a year earlier. profit also beat estimates. improvehe cost income that ratio, but the bank is warning it may take a charge of to takeas $1 billion
care of u.s. businesses. joining us now john shrewsberry. great to have you with us. ultimately, you mentioned the results could change, a potential $1 billion charge. how confident are you that you could bring that number significantly below the $1 billion level? john: it is tough to say. relatesle matter -- it to things that we disclosed in the past, but the back-and-forth we are having just begun this week, so we will know when we know. we thought it was important to begin in the meantime, and the results for the quarter -- go ahead? no, please carry on. john: i just want to frame the results for the quarter. you mentioned some of the moving pieces total for the quarter in net income was $5.9 billion. we generated a more than 12% return on equity and almost 15% on tangible common equity. there are a lot of pieces of
drivers of the business that are actually very good this quarter on capital, our liquidity credit quality never better. more going on between us and our customers and pavements, no debit and credit, growth year over year. growth in primary consumer checking accounts, those of the customers we do the most with. it is actually very exciting. and all while we are building a more better wells fargo, more modernized company, more improvement and compliance and risk management, some of the topics related to that consent order. all of that happening while producing high-quality results, but there is this question of when and at what level we will finish that negotiations. julia: investors right now are just waiting, i think, to be convinced on this. the lending business. you mentioned $11 billion from a year ago. explain what is going on there. is it a case of you effectively
losing market share, or is it the strain that the federal reserve has put on you with regards to growth? john: actually, it is neither of those two things. i would put it into businesses that really tapped teh brakes, because we do not like today's risks, precrisis single family mortgage loans, lower credit quality auto loans, we have slow down on purpose, or in some cases, we have been liquidating. p and i loanss, from a mortgage loans, credit card loans, etc., we are growing at the same rate on top of the industry as a whole. it just so happens that because we are the largest lender, we have a mix of some of the legacy businesses and some markets where we are not crazy. $900 billion worth of
loans is going to reflect the full breadth of the economy. julia: i mentioned the federal reserve's attempt to restrict your growth and the measurement that you have from what is going on in the business itself at this moment. that curtailing your efforts to improve the situation as far as the bank is concerned and go out there and drive new business? i have seen various reports of what stability generally will be as a result of these constraints. have you been able to qualify yet? do you have a sense? john: we have, sure. is one,traint, if there is on certain types of deposit that we taken from other banks. there were other large cap banks who in the last couple of years have turned away those deposits because, under leverage ratio constraints, they were not the business with evident. we have done -- business to do. we have done more of that
because we did not have that leverage ratio constraint. that is the first business we have cut back on. i will be high cost of oz is, low liquidity value deposits. the last $50 billion or $100 billion of our total balance sheet are those types of deposits. when we talk about curtailing them, it produces on the order millionmillion to $400 net income impact over the course of the whole year. it was negligible in the first quarter. more of that was back in loaded in 2018. as it relates to the mortgage businesses, the other businesses we are competing vigorously, in terms of the organic growth prospects, it does not curtail any of that. it is really focused on other institutions to deposit their cash and at the margin will do a little bit like that. businesses, the
chugging along. the constraint is negligible to you pointed out your return on equity here, comparable to the likes of jpmorgan as well. why aren't investors rewarding you for those numbers? what more do you need to do? do you need to beef up compliance further? is it just about trust at this level? john: i think that solving matters with our regulators over the course of the next couple of quarters on items -- the same items that have been in play for to sort ofar or so, delay the fact of the regulatory relationship mending, i think that will probably help a lot. if we continue to produce results the way we have with returns the way they are on the capital base that we have, the investor reward will take care of itself overtime. this level of profitability, these types of returns, even if it is not fast growing, still
compare favorably against the best in our category, in top-tier large-cap banks. julia: and there is no more bad news to come? john: that is fair. i think people would like to replayat whether it is a of previously disclosed bad news or anything else that is uncovered in the process of looking in every operation that that comes to an end. julia: thank you so much for speaking to us today, john shrewsberry, wells fargo cfo. coming up, the white house braces for another tell-all. trying to discredit the former fbi director coming right up. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. the "new york times" force the justice department delivered to congress today a report that accuses former fbi deputy director andrew mccabe of repeatedly misleading investigators. according to the "times," mccabe was fired last month, lied about instructing aides to provide information in october of 2015 to a reporter. the inspector general also concluded that mccabe's disclosure of an investigation into the financial dealings into the clinton family's organization violated media policies of the fbi and the doj. ambassador to the u k, alexander, says britain refuses -- it isith former
suspicious. >> we want to investigate, and we definitely want to hear her story. how it happened, what happened, we want to see the evidence. the story is not over. for us, this is just the beginning. sorry about that. we want to have a full investigation. mark: meantime, a chemical weapons watchdog has confirmed a nerve agent. any issues.enied of lebanon's military hezbollah group says the suspect israeli airstrike on an air base in central syria that killed seven iranians is an historic mistake. ashwallah says the suspected gas attack ushers in a
new phase in what he calls direct confrontation with the islamic republic of iran. both blaze -- both russia and syria blamed israel for the airstrikes, which have not been confirmed by israeli tel aviv. demonstrators threw stones at demandedt forces and the rule over the region. 40 civilians were injured this week and other killed when government forces fired on protesters. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. "what'd you miss?" comey's memoir does not hit bookshelves until next week but is already a bestseller. all of this triggered by a fiery
response from the president -- , theered a fiery response president calling james comey a leaker who should be prosecuted. he also called him an "untruthful sa slimeball," and this will go down as one of the worst "botched jobs" of history. here is bloomberg's white house editor alex raines. alex, save me. i believe this is the white house, the president doing a pr job for somebody who is writing a book about them. alex: yeah, it is. a billboardwell put for michael wolff's book back in january, and now they should do james comey to her this book is going to go bananas, although it already is.
in my view, it will be a big letdown, there will not be a big revelation about comey and trump's conversations. there is stuff about whether trump colluded with moscow. it is salacious, but it does not make headlines for us. scarlet: it is not new, either. alex: right. joe: i get the impression that it is point to be a sort of red meat for trump haters and the whole industry of hating trump and all of that, which is pretty substantial, but that, in terms of if we were hoping for some bombshell that would take down the presidency, it is not in there. thereno, it is not in we have. read it, and we have not found it. when the experience cannot january commit apparently opened up new allegations for the special counsel. we are not sure what he is
looking at as a result of that book, but steve bannon, who was quoted extensively in "fire and fury," was asked to speak to special counsel after the book came out. so there could be something in the comey book that could lead .he special counsel down a new path in the investigation they could ask to speak to comey again. i believe comey has already speak into the -- spoken to them. we will have to see what develops there. scarlet: this week and will be critical because the book, as julia mentioned, will be released next week, but he will be making the rounds of the talk shows this week. the risk of the presidency seeing some of the coverage around this is pretty high. of course he might take action, which could include firing rod rosenstein or firing rod lohr. what are you hearing from people in washington about what kind of machinations are being put in place or anyone is making for that possibility? alex: there are all kinds of
rumors about rod rosenstein's fate. there was a story earlier today that he is preparing to be fired. we have not heard anything directly. the white house has not shown anything about this. it is a thorny thicket for the president. he does not really get much out of firing ron rosenstein and it could be seen as obstructing justice. b, he will not get a replacement confirmed by the senate, at least anytime soon. whoever goes into the job temporarily is unlikely to fire mueller. they would face the same constraints in firing mueller that rod rosenstein does. it has to be for a cause, and there does not appear to be any cause for that. politically and legally, it is probably not a great idea. julia: can we please talk about some real politics? there are critical things that could take place.
let's talk about syria, because we have the united nations meeting earlier today, and what we see over the weekend? alex: it has been a really interesting developed over the last week. the president said on monday he would make a decision on syria within 48 hours. on wednesday, he told the russians on twitter to "be ready for missiles to start flying." nothing has happened. we are waiting to see what he will decide on syria. see what tong to do. it looks like it could be a working weekend for those who have to cover the white house. the president deliberating on his response on the chemical weapons attack. scarlet: lots of things to keep our eye on for this weekend. bloomberg white house editor alex wayne joining us, thank you. taking a bite out of the wine and dine perk. why the new tax regime it
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" president trump's new tax laws making enemies on wall street. for more now, we're joined by bloomberg tax reporter ben stever. it, businessest had really counted on this deduction, 15% on business-related expenses relating to entertain clients. what does that mean? what did it mean in the past and what does it mean now? ben: in the past, you can deduct your business meals and entertainment to the tax law came in and changed that's you can only deduct business meals.
everyone was like oh, ok, that will really hurt ticket sales for box seats, tickets to broadway shows, any type of entertainment expense. ok, we will not be able to do those anymore, he will not be able to deduct them. expert startedax looking at the law and say what does entertainment really mean in the taxable? a lot of them think entertaining clients at a dinner would qualify. so what you can still deduct as if you go on a business trip in your order room service and have food by yourself in a hotel room, you can deduct that, but taking a client out to lunch, that might not. julia: so no entertaining, recreation, so you can argue we had dinner, we talked about business, we were deeply unamused by the situation, you can get around it? ben: that is really the question. if you just top business, the irs is saying -- possibly could
say it does not matter if you did not enjoy your dinner, you still had a $55 stakeeak. [laughter] julia: i'm joking, but it could be costly for business. ben: this is true. there are a lot of businesses that really thrive on human contact, person-to-person contact, like wall street. actually $24 billion over a decade, so it is a substantial cost. scarlet: was the government targeting the specifically, or was this unintended? ben: if you remember when they were passing the ball, they needed to hit a target, which was $1.5 trillion. they were closing a bunch of loopholes and giving out other tax cuts to others. that $24 billion made a difference. joe: have we seen changes? people going out to eat less? ben: people are just starting to wake up to this issue, but the big accounting firms are warning their clients of this could be a
big deal. we are waiting to hear from the irs. the irs has so much on its plate right now, and they will have to clarify this eventually. julia: is it really a steak knife in the heart, or does this get changed? if so many people are going forward and going "come on." joe: they are not going to change tax breaks and directly at wall street. [laughter] julia: as a result of being able to do this business, it is a result of not allowing the deduction. ben: it is not just wall street. any company that is in sales, you take your clan out to lunch, this is their bread and butter. there will be a lot of lobbying. scarlet: also a real hit for the restaurant industry. julia: inteak houses new york. bloomberg -- in new york. julia: bloomberg's ben
mark: i am mark crumpton with first word news. russia's you and ambassador says the united states appears to have adopted a policy to "on military scenario against syria." meeting ofemergency the security council that moscow continues to observe what he calls "dangerous military preparations." after the council meeting, britain's ambassador denied a russian military claimed that the u.k. staged an alleged chemical attack in syria last weekend. >> this is grotesque. it is a blatant lie. it is the worst piece of fake news we have yet seen from the russia propaganda machine.
to take this opportunity to state categorically to you, the world press, that britain has no involvement, would never have any involvement in the use of a chemical weapon. mark: russian foreign minister sergey lavrov said today the alleged attack was "fabricated." wisconsin democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in the race for paul ryan's soon to be vacated congressional seat. it became the latest high-profile race. but conflating options after ryan's announcement wednesday that he would not seek reelection. have justcandidates seven weeks to file by the june 1 deadline. couldn gop candidates potentially favor democrats. we see ryan-backed majority leader kevin mccarthy as his successor as speaker. european unione foreign
will discuss their post-brexit relationship for the first time a sweet, but eu officials are not expect serious talks about trade to start until june. it is to avoid a hard border on the island of ireland when it becomes the u.k.'s border with the eu. the european side once that settle before talks on trade get underway. iraq's official election campaigns kickoff tomorrow, but politicians have artie been pounding the pavement. chattings have been with servers at markets, shaking hands, and using social media to reach potential voters, promising them a better future. today marks iraq's fourth elections of the 2003 invasion that remove saddam hussein from power. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of
today's market action. we ended the week on a down note, although at about 2:30, it looked like it would be a lot steeper. a lot of concerns about what could emerge this weekend. joe: the fear of the unknown unknowns, because in this environment, you have no idea. scarlet: in the end, stocks him off the lows, but still hire about almost 2% for the week. julia: "what'd you miss?" it is the first look at the financial guys of saudi aramco, and it shows a corporate cash gusher, pumping billions in profits every month and beating every big name in global business. the numbers give investors the most expensive set of data yet, a possible value of a generation deal for the financial market. of course the saudi aramco ipo. . we are with how investors are data, jan stuart, the chief energy correspondent at
cornerstone macro. banks have looked for this and it is the sheer evaluation of saudi aramco, more like $1 trillion rather than $2 trillion. your thoughts on the capacity. an incredible company, of course, and it is outsized corporate, of course, all growing in the state covers of the kingdom. how to value aramco is being debated now. holdsk the crown prince the real value in his head, and as for the interview, it is waiting for the right time to get that value. julia: what do they need to be at for them to say let's go ahead? jan: higher and higher. right now, we hear aramco itself
as a report talking about $80, right? that oils talk about price in general, because it seems like obviously there is an is punctuated by whatever the geopolitical headline of the day is. let's say geopolitics aside, we are looking at fundamentals, we know saudi wants to push it higher, maybe toward that $80. can they get it? jan: $72 and change, right? everything is up a little bit. oil is up a little bit more. ofis changed, not because the person in the white house mulling whatever on syria, sure, there is no more risk, and consumers, especially in asia, will want to buy a little more inventory, but what is also happening in the last week or two is saudi aramco again tightening the market in asia. that is a good deal -- big deal. joe: what are the theories for
why saudi could not do that? texas is the swing producer, and if you do that, then texas will so there is nothing you can do. lately there are transportation constraints, and you see it in the price is midland, the plumbing trading at a discount. i have a chart here on my terminal, g #btv 6748. it has come back a little bit, but they cannot get it out. in: to grow a point is that think that the saudi's and the russians see an opportunity, right? julia: to squeeze. to squeeze the market. jan: this is a very good time to do it. if you are going to do it in the next two years, now is the time to do it. some people are like what happens when you get the shell at something more than $60, then you set yourself up for a it is very price
sensitive. high price to get still more activity, because as you say, there are constraints on what you can do. i don't believe that we are yet the midlandomics, to houston deferential would want to be something like $20. so we are still pushing on the pipeline, some not quite at the limit yet. there will be more capacity brought online. but we are hitting soft limits. there are traffic jams in the middle of nowhere. the unemployment rate in midland , according to the cycle is closer to 2%. julia: you are talking two years we are looking where judging the oil price in particular to be whatever happened to the supply demand dynamics, but what about even they keep because promising that they will give us some sense of what the exit
strategy is going to be. the market is going to continue to push them to at some point, there is a fundamental match to the noise. jan: if you are opec, you could've already in november said victory is ours. we have achieved market neutral risk, we are over tightening. next week, they will tell us what will be the actual benchmark. then on may 12, what we will do with iran. there are a number of significant milestones. to your question, $80 is not out of reach. will it stay there for any length of time? no.but can we get there ? sure. scarlet: when we get to $80, what are the factors that pushes beyond $80 versus the factors right now? [laughter] that is the funny part about oil, right? there is a logical floor, and you always go through that on the way down.
there is a logical ceiling, and you probably go through the. it is momentum. if you have a whole bunch of people wanting to sell it, you will simply drive yourself higher in the middle of the tightest part of the season, right. think in ahave to crown prince or crown princess-like manner. scarlet: i do not know if i can do that. [laughter] jan stuart, cornerstone macro chief energy correspondent, thank you very much. jan: thank you. scarlet: rewarding shareholders with their loyalty with a dividend. we have that conversation coming up. joe: subscribe to our weekly podcast on itunes or you will eachour best content friday. there is a new one out today, so check it out. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" move by apple to control information about its activities. it warned employees to stop leaking internal information on future plans. it is considering legal action as well as criminal charges. alistairo bring in alic in san francisco. this is a company with 100,000 employees. ir: apple says it is a big problem, and one of the things they are concerned about is information that comes out about products that are not released, it might have a negative effect on sales, and then they going to say that maybe there is an impact on sales of new products, which does seem a little harder
to understand. joe: were people arrested? what is the deal? can you be arrested for leaking? stair: i was speaking ahead of time before i came on about what the media does for a living, and i think actually reporting what companies are keeping secret is what we do for a living, so i do not think there is anything illegal involved in that. julia: is there anything unusual with what apple is doing versus other tech companies? or is thismal abnormal for apple? alistair: apple is a bit different from other silicon valley companies like google or facebook, because they are a lot more secretive internally, so sometimes we might have, you know, a specific apple team working on a specific product, and they may not actually know about other apple teams in the
same company, obviously. areeas facebook and google obviously internally a lot more open about their plans with employees, but those companies are also spending a lot of time monitoring what employees say to people outside the company on announcing. google in particular has also fired people for speaking to the press and leaking things as well. scarlet: and this really interesting, because it speaks employees are finding out information about with her colleagues are working on. tension as well. joe: that tension is part of apple's business model, because facebook and google do not have voila, here is a new product. if there was no magic around those events, theoretically, that can hurt the business. hardair: because it is work, most of the things apple does as hardware, when they release the final product, it has to be perfect.
where as and google, for instance, they release a software product, and maybe it is not perfect. some people will get the feedback, they will update the software. it is a lot harder to update it with an actual physical device. there is a lot more riding on these big product announcements for apple. julia: alistair barr in san francisco, thank you. we need to stop mark almond from leaking. scarlet: know, we want to keep mark. joe: she is firing people. the ceo of fiat chrysler, sergio marchionne, saying a suite for investors. he spoke to bloomberg in amsterdam. the work that is going on in terms of brand building in the united states has put us in and in the opel position -- in
an in vehicle position -- leading position with edge margins for the sector. when it happens, i cannot tell you. you will benchmark performance on my way out. if i cannot get there -- reporter: you said today leaving might be coming. could this be your last year as ceo? sergio: the question is, if it is true, i will make a target, and i will end up with $4 billion in cash a year. the question is how you deal with that capital is a big issue. to of the things we present the market on june 1, for the first time since 2007, is how we will treat shareholders in terms of dividends richard permission -- dividend distribution.
become forneeds to the structure, because if that is the cycle time with which we perform, i think we need to make it part of policy. it is something that will obviously impact positively. we have never been in this position. we had this maniacal fixation with the euro. the day i wear a tie is going to be a big day. fors time to reward them the help they have had in the last 15 years. there,sergio marchionne ceo of fiat chrysler, speaking to bloomberg in amsterdam. coming up, some venture capitals caught a case of the crypto trades. we will talk to one of the members of insight venture partners about what is going on. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
joe: "what'd you miss?" saw the final ipo eventual capitalist pouring money and regulate are starting scrutiny. some investors are not totally sure it is the time. lonne jaffe is the managing director of insight venture partners. he joins me now. has calm the down a little bit calmed down a little bit in 2018. what would be your firm's view on this? lonne: this is a marathon, not a sprinklered it is early days in the crypto space.
the very basic infrastructure is being built out from a technology perspective, and from a business model perspective, it is still early days in that companies have not figured out how they will make money. joe: did you invest in anything yet and what i guess what would call the crypto launching space? in overe have invested 300 software companies and internet companies that use software a their core, like twitter and alibabat. it is still early enough that fromnies have not shifted the early growth stage, so we are looking at companies where we can be helpful, technology, architecture, sales. joe: your firm comes in a bit later. lonne: what we are looking at is our existing portfolio. cybersecurity, fraud, how they can apply their products to the crypto space, or blockchain-like technologies. joe: let's talk about other tech trends. one of the biggest things is the anxiety about personal data,
privacy, security, and things like that. is that an area where you see opportunity, essentially providing alternatives in some way to the current privacy model of a lot of a consumer tech companies? lonne: privacy is increasingly becoming as important if not more important than cybersecurity. i think that is a potential threat for companies. if they do not have this front and center on how to manage and be responsible stewards of their customers'and their partners' privacy, dr. be a risk. we have invested in companies and those are great for businesses and the customers. we are looking for similar types of businesses because we think company smaller than facebook will have trouble building internally. joe: it is not just a matter of avoiding a hack because obviously, every company wants to avoid having an attack, but figuring out a way that
companies can communicate to their customers, but they can use that service without being exploitive. lonne: exactly. if you think about what people are doing with data today, they making the it for products better, but they want to make sure it is protected in the same way that they protect their businesses from a cybersecurity perspective. it is a really hard technical problem. many companies us want to buy software to help them with. we expect an emerging ecosystem around that space. joe: there has been a debate that tech is becoming a kind of monopoly, or that a lot of these companies have distracted monopoly power. you have heard senator lindsey graham interview mark zuckerberg on this. he said who are your competitors. the question about whether tech startups in general or whether there is any room for players to go after these incumbents. what is your view? lonne: what they are noting is economic policy.
ankle biters have trouble coming in. it is a little different from the traditional monopolies. prices are actually coming down a lot instead of going up, so they are getting a little more compact. that kind of economic power can also be transitory. people thought microsoft would essentially be a dominant vendor forever in the 1990's, and that changed as well. the things that can shift economic power or sarao data. one of the things -- power our paradigms around data. one of the things we notice is products are being built in the new growth space. you have the timeline horizon, and we can help them get to scale, and they can get that economic power. watch.teresting to lonne jaffe, managing director insight venture partners, thank you very much. scarlet: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. three of the biggest u.s. banks hired the most workers in the
first quarter since 2011. j.p. morgan chase, wells fargo, hired moreup than 28 7000 people. vertuccis is said to be close to filing bankruptcy protection. the restaurant chain is lining of a buyer to take control of the business after the filing. sales of the top sit-down restaurant rose 1% last year. in massachusetts-based chain operates about 80 restaurants in the northeastern toys "r" us has a rescue offer. toillionaire has offered save the company from liquidation. the funds would come from isaac larian himself as well as ubs and bank of america. that is your bloomberg business flash of it. julia: coming up, what you need
about monday? we have no idea. scarlet: it all depends on what happens monday morning. julia: you may see more earnings coming. scarlet: big earnings continue with bank earnings reporting. joe: and i will be looking at retail sales around monday as well. julia: a health check on the consumer, and don't miss this on tuesday -- president trump is meeting with prime minister abe in mar-a-lago. scarlet: that will be interesting. that does it for "what'd you miss?" ulia: "boomer technology" is p next. joe: have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪
i'm mark crumpton in new york, you're watching technology." here's a check of first word news. the new york times reports justice department's inspector general delivered to congress friday a highly report that accuses former deputy director andrew mccabe of misleading investigators. according to the times, mccabe was fired last lied about instructing aides to provide information to a reporter in of 2016. congressional democrats who served in the u.s. armed forces are calling on to stopt trump using twitter to announce decisions,curity particularly in syria. realitys not a television show and it should not be treated as a andity television show certainly not by the commander-in-chief of the greatest country in the world. >> president trump calls former fbi deputy director an untruthful slime ball. that's in response to