tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg May 4, 2018 1:30pm-3:30pm EDT
headquarters in new york, i am shery ahn. toronto,ive from t i'm amanda lang. shery: here are the stories we're following from around the world. equities rally in america as u.s. unemployment. any are two decade low. we headed to the hoover institution monetary policy conference at stanford university for a live discussion with the former president of the philadelphia fed. plus, can finance minister tell us why he is cautiously optimistic that nasa is moving in the right direction? a quickt started with check of the major averages in the u.s. and the session highs. the dow is getting 1.2% while the nasdaq is up 1.5%. headlines today can with apple reaching record highs after news that warren
buffett bought 75 million shares in the first quarter. take a look at the different sectors on the s&p 500. is can see that every sector in the green right now. financials also are regaining those losses from the morning session and reversing two sessions of losses, while energy has turned green as the vti continues to rise -- wti continues to rise near $70 a barrel. president trump decided on that iran deal next week. amanda: and we saw no sign of real wage inflation in there. the u.s. dollar seeing strengthen that has the canadian dollar weaker today. he was a chart you can find in jake peavy -- here is a chart you can find in gtv. ahead of those shipments are being pulled the way down. that is betting and -- that is
bad news for american produces and good news for canadian. shery: mixed bag for the jobs report. unemployment rate dipping below 4% for the first time since 2000, but decelerating wages overshadow the jobless rate. michael mckee is standing by with more on what today's report could mean for the fed's path. michael: thank you very much. we are here with charles plosser , former president of the philadelphia federal reserve bank joining us from the hoover conference on monetary policy, which raises the question, whither monetary policy in a world where you can get 3.9% unemployment and no wage gains? andell, the unemployment wage gains and have a lot to do with productivity. we have had miserable productivity growth over the last decade or so. it is not entirely surprising that growth in wages is not any
more robust than it is. michael: we sort of strained to get the pce index to 2%, just barely at 2% after how many years, no wage growth for to you with the fed when you are at the open market committee. has something changed in inflation dynamics that would change your view of inflation? charles: well, it is a puzzle why we haven't had more inflation, but one way to answer that puzzle or to address it, is that a lot of what the fed did in terms of fighting the recession, quantitative easing, generally a lot of financial , butest -- financial ease the money-creation aspect of it from all the quantitative easing led to a budget of excess reserves in the banking system, not going into the economy. i think that is kind of the puzzle, that is kind of the question. why didn't that happen?
what might cause it to happen again, in which case we get a lot of inflation. i think that focusing on the wage rate or unemployment relationship between inflation and unemployment is the wrong place to be thinking about this. michael: that how do you think about it? if you are a policy maker and thinking about what i am going to do what sort of policy regime should you be following? charles: i think the fed and central bankers and monetary economists in general need to be rethinking what the appropriate policy tools are, what the metrics are you want to be looking at. i think we need to rethink some of that. i think that, for example, quantities -- central bankers have replaced looking at money with looking at interest rates. may not bere that
the right thing to have done. it may have worked fine for a but quantities and money have something to be said for them, and looking what is going to the two more inflation, for example. michael: they are talking at the fed these days about changing the reaction function and letting inflation "run hot." they talk about the symmetric target in their last statement, suggesting they will tolerated above 2% for a while. what would you do in that area? charles: i think i would focus more on having a policy regime that would actually tell the public what it is, and a clean design policy regime -- and actually design policy regimes that support the policy objective. they don't have that yet. this is surging whether we are all price-level targeting or nominal gdp targeting or inflation targeting, that is all noise as far as i'm -- would to do that -- good to do that, but
the real problem is designing and committing getting a policy reaction from the operating procedure that supports those objectives. they have not done that with the inflation target. they are just taking around -- kicking around some sort of ms. of physical -- metaphysical kind of thing that may be interesting, but until they can execute the strategy and tell the public what the function is going to be to deliver on that, it doesn't really -- it is just confusing. now that you are outside from having been on the inside, what would you change? charles: i really wouldn't change much of anything. i would be much more explicit on the reaction. i argued for a long time at the fed that we ought to communicate the reaction can be less discretionary. they had been very reluctant to do that. they talk a lot about it. but they still want to be highly discretionary policy makers. until the fed has the ability to
do that, changing what the target is is just sort of -- what is the right -- it is sort of diverting the question from the really harder question, which is having to communicate their policy strategy. michael: people on wall street look at the fed and say that you have 840 phds there, the biggest, broadest model of the u.s. economy committee cannot forecast growth and you cannot forecast inflation and you can't forecast unemployment and your forecasts are always wrong. charles: it is really hard! michael: how fair is that? fair up toll, it is a point. there is a lot of uncertainty about the economy and how it works. uncertain about what are the right models and designing good policies when goes uncertainty about what the right model of the economy is is even harder. it is -- some of that is fair,
but just because there's a lot we don't know, that doesn't mean there's nothing that we do know. i think focusing on the things we do know rather than getting down in the weeds and focusing on things, my new show about -- tiae about what we don't know, i'm not sure is the right strategy. focus on what we do understand and try to have policies that support those objectives. michael: there's a lot of talk about when next for the fed another central banks. do you worry that people have interviewed the fed with too ued the fed with too much on missions because of the reaction to the financial crisis, that people expect too much perfection? charles: i absolutely agree with that. we have cast our vote as a society or economy on believing the fed the answer to all of our problems, that we can just have the fed fixes and they
can go do it. doesn't always work that -- we cannot be fed -- we can have the go go fix this and they can do it. doesn't always work that way. we said our expectations so high that the central banks can't really deliver on it. and when they can't deliver on it, they lose confidence, they lose credibility with the public , and it makes the task even harder. i am deeply concerned that have been for some time that there is a little too much hubris out there about what central banks can do, and central bankers would be wise to try to scale back some of that and talk about their limitations not in terms of all the things that they can cvan tweakrs they or twist. michael: a lot of questions about whether jay powell should end the every-other-meeting press conference. charles: well, i think there is
a lot of pressure to do that. the ecb has a press conference every time. a lot of it has to do with how the new chair feels comfortable about that. it is a lot of extra work, obviously. i think that that would be fine with me. i think it is not a bad thing. i would like to see him a push harder on inflation report that talked about policy, push harder on developing reaction functions that they can communicate with the public. there is lots of things they can do that i think are now possible. , thank: charles plosser you for joining us. you will be involved in these debates, discussions. thanks for being with us. we will send it back to you, amanda, in toronto. amanda: thank you so much, michael mckee, bloomberg's international holidays and policy editor. shery: at the same time on a life go on the bloomberg
terminal, you can see new york dudleysident bill speaking with bloomberg's matt mcclure in an exclusive interview. he is saying that the fed is trying to be more transparent on goaly, that the fed's isn't a given level of the stock market, and he is happy to see policy turn out -- he says the banking system is healthier than it has been in a long time. mr. dudley is also talking about blockchain technology. that may be quite interesting. it quite has a lot of speculation at this point. he is talking about the economic expansion in the u.s., saying that the economic outlook the next few years is pretty good and that the economy is growing and an above-trend pace. you are looking at those comments from a bill dudley. he is retiring in june, he will be's excited by the san francisco fed president john heliams that he will be -- will be succeeded by the san francisco fed president john where we have this.
ams.ohn willi now to get to "first word" news come here is mark crumpton. mark: hawaiian officials say extremely high levels of sulfur dioxide gas have been detected in areas near the irruption of a volcano. officials on the big island are warning people to stay away from the area. nearly 1500 residents were ordered to evacuate their homes after the volcano erupted and sent molten lava through forest land and on paved streets. president trump says he is not planning on withdrawing u.s. troops stationed on the korean peninsula. he also gave more details about his upcoming meeting with kim jong-un. is comments came before he departed joint base andrews for dallas. president trump: the trip is being scheduled, we have a date and a location. you will be announcing it soon. -- we will be announcing it soon. atk: the president speaks
the nra convention in dallas for his fourth speech in about before the group. the nra spent $30 million in support of mr. trump's 2016 cap it. hundreds of war veterans and civilians rallied in sarajevo today in support of a bosnian military command or suspected of war crimes in the 1992-1995 conflict. last week police briefly detain him and 12 other members of the bosnian army for alleged war crimes against hundreds of serb civilians in a northwestern bosnia. many bosnian muslims view him as a defender of the region under siege for much of the war. the swedish academy says the nobel prize in literature will not be awarded this year. the academy made the decision in stockholm today on the grounds that the body is in no shape to pick the winner after a string of sex abuse allegations and financial crimes scandals. the 2018 price will begin in
2019. it is the first time since 1949 that the prestigious award is not being handed out. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda, back to you in toronto. amanda: still ahead, ahead of next week's after talks, i spoke to canada's finance minister about why he remains cautiously optimistic talks of moving in the right direction. that interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪
markets." i am shery ahn in new york. amanda: hi amanda lang in toronto. as nafta negotiations continue, trading partners are well aware of the need to get a deal done. in canada, finance minister bill morneau remains cautiously optimistic. i spoke to him earlier today in an exclusive interview. mr. morneau: i can tell you first of all the we are all working very hard on this. the canadians, but also mexicans and americans. we are engaged in daily talks. they are pretty intense. i in my role has been in regular communication with treasury secretary steve mnuchin to talk about issues that are in our portfolio but also making sure that those discussions are moving forward. we are making progress progress on multiple function at the same time. but there is other things to make progress on. i would say cautious optimism that it is moving in the right direction, but a deal was never
a deal until it is done, and we have something we know are really important for canadians. we need to make sure we have a way to resolve disputes. we need to make sure that went businesses make investments, they know that those are possible for the long-term. we need to make sure that sectors of the north american economy are still enabled to be successful, and that includes all the interrelated supply chains. there is always going to be things that are tough in a negotiation, but i will tell you that i'm cautiously optimistic. we are looking, hoping that we can make some real progress in the coming weeks. amanda: how dismayed were you that the steel and aluminum tariffs were extended by one months, and the message that that is the last extension we get? mr. morneau: we see very clearly that the candidate and u.s. -- canada and u.s. still market is in a graded.
we export still to the united states, they export steel to us. we have integrated supply chain. no security are threat for the united states. we are the closest ally. we think there is no reason for canada to have any tariffs on steel or any quotas on steel and aluminum. that is our position and we have been straightforward from the beginning. obviously the fact that we are currently exempted is appropriate. we think that should continue for the long-term, and we continue to talk about how we make sure that happens. amanda: one of the concerns that has been raised to -- your government has said they will work to address it -- is the notion that cheaper materials, into canada and find their way thanks to nafta or a new trade deal into the u.s. how genuine are those concerns? mr. morneau: stepping back -- i think there is actually two issues. and headede steel for the u.s. market to be diverted to canada causing a problem for our steel
manufacturing capacity here. and then what you are calling the transshipment issue, where people send it to canada and it goes through the back door to the united states. how real are those concerns? first of all, we don't think it is happening today. we have done a pretty deep dive to make sure it doesn't happen. that is critically important. we made that representation to the united states. what we recognize is that to the extent the u.s. changes the rules, there will be incentives to do that. we are looking very carefully at reinforcing the rules that currently exist, making sure that we have ways to determine where the origin of the steel is , looking at our approach to the border to make sure that is appropriately controlled. i guess the way i see it is we need belts and suspenders. we may note it is in a good position now, we need to understand any action taken by the united states will change
the dynamic. amanda: commerce secretary ross on the network this week used the expression "country of origin labeling." i wonder how much that applies not to things like me that we have seen -- things like meat that we have seen before but autos, high-tech full stop are you comfortable we will get to a place that is not create endless headaches for businesses? mr. morneau: we are of the view that that is an important issue. when you have the north american trade agreement, you need to think about how you are sure that is controlled appropriately. we think this is a manageable issue. shery: great conversation there with the canadian finance minister, bill morneau. interesting to see that he is a little more optimistic talking about progress being made on after, but i have to wonder how he feels about president trump mixing integration policies with nafta, tweeting
every day, the revolving door of white house staff as well. amanda: i asked him off-line how hard it was to do his job as a finance minister with such unpredictability from the u.s. president, and he gave kind of a lighthearted answer, that it makes his job more fun. shery: oh, wow. amanda: the lack of predictability means the unexpected is to be expected. on the most important things, his relationship with secretary mnuchin, he says it is great, they work extremely well and closely together, they have flown across the world to have dinners and spend one-on-one time together. there will be most important to the citizens of both countries. shery: very, very positive there. coming up, president donald trump is expected to speak at the national rifle association leadership forum in dallas, texas, any moment. we will bring you that live. this is bloomberg. ♪
amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." i am amanda lang in toronto. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. time for the biggest business stories in the news right now. toyota is planning an expansion of its canadian operation. investment will create 450 jobs whato ontario factories bring a force for utility vehicles. this as toyota and other automakers are shifting the focus to the consumers' is based focus on this preference -- consumers preference for suvs over cars. according to a person can layer with a situation, the deal would not involve the company's campaigns and it would be announced monday. to jobless rate fell .2%
4.1% in april and employers added 164,000 jobs. the figure was revised to 135,000. meanwhile, wage gains unexpectedly slowed down. that suggests the labor market still has some slack. that is your "business flash" update. amanda: coming up, president donald trump is expected to speak at the national rifle association leadership forum in dallas, texas. you can see mike pence speaking there now. we will bring it live as it happens. this is bloomberg. ♪
welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ we are live in bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. here are the top stories we are covering on this friday on the bloomberg and from around the world. jobs, jobs, jobs. april rebound disappointed, but the unemployment rate did drop below before 2% in the first time since 2000. and went trump the nra, are live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. here are the top stories we are covering on the bloomberg and around the world. the level he speaks it was only to bloomberg as he prepares to lead the largest and most influential fed bank. we have u.s. markets closing in two hours time. just keptn, things moving higher. julie: the initial move was tepid, and around 10:30 this morning is when things started to rip a bit more. push higher ever since, now trading around the highs of the session.
just as some of the recent declines have been a bit of a head scratcher, it is not clear what is fueling today's rally. after all, if it was in response to this morning's jobs report, it was currently delayed. one thing helping has been apple, after news that warren buffett's berkshire hathaway had increased its stake. apple shares are trading at a record. we continue to see the swings in the market, so again we have a 1% move in the s&p 500, now 32 times that we have seen 1% moves up or down. i have been watching some of the groups in today's action. one thing we are watching his media, cbs leading some gains thereafter the company came out with earnings that he estimates -- beat estimates. the ceo is perhaps further along in the argument that cbs management should lead a combined cbs-viacom if the entities end up combining. viacom had a decline in sales this past quarter, cbs had a gain of sales -- in sales of
13%. and helping cbs, the creation of online services and partnerships with companies like hulu and youtube, distributors like hulu and youtube. comcast appears to beginning a lift as well, and 21st century fox 21st century fox and disney out with their numbers next week. disney's avengers, by the way, is poised to hit $1 billion in box office revenue in record time, perhaps sometime today or at the latest, perhaps tomorrow. it has not even opened in china, which happens on may 11. elsewhere, we are watching the u.s. dollar, which continues its upward march. up 1% on the week, at the highest as we have seen this year. at one point, it was having the best week this year as well. of course, with the fed meeting in the rearview mirror and looking ahead to june, the probability of water or more rate hikes -- four or more rate
hikes has gone down this week, but it has gone a bit higher. there is certainly a great likelihood of three hikes being priced into the market at this point. julia? julia: let's get the first word news update with mark crumpton. mark: michigan environmental experts warn that flynn's water system had "significant beforeciencies," weeks government officials ended the service providing residents with bottled water. two years ofhat testing shows that they are below the federally permitted wobbler level love -- level four lead. died due to the city's lead tainted water. there could be a politically explosive decision involving brexit, according to senior british officials. the dregs it transition -- break might haveion period
to be extended for years. any new customs regime will not be able to come into force in time. the transition is scheduled to end in december of 2020. it are national mediators are holding a piece gathering to mark the end of separatist group and after a decades long campaign against spain that saw more than 150 people killed. they are also taking part in a conference in the south of france. among those in attendance, former leader gerry adams. >> the steps that have been taken over recent months and years make this process an example of what is possible when --ple have good well goodwill, determination, and vision. do not lose hope and don't give up. however, stains prime minister reiterated his government will continue to investigate and punish the crimes committed by eta. weaponsays chemical
inspectors have finished their investigation in the syrian town of duma, the site of a suspected chemical attack. the organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons is expected to issue a report on last month attack. the team was delayed repeatedly in an attempt to reach duma. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tick-tock on twitter, powered by journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. julia: we are waiting a speech of president trump at the nra leadership association convention in dallas. we are joined now by our reporter who covers the gun industry to give us a quick preview. polly, great to have you with us. we wanted to talk about the president's current stance and far -- as far as current gun control is concerned, but who is
at the event? what are we expecting to hear today? polly: we are hearing of the members. it is not about membership. there are almost 900 exhibitors that will attend, but this is really for the rank and file, people that have an nra membership and like to attend to support the movement. this is a social event for them. scarlet: a grassroots event, almost. polly: absolutely. scarlet: the president will be speaking there. he has spoken there for a couple of years in a row. polly: this is his fourth year he is speaking there, and this is usually a patriotic message he delivered and is also speaking to his base here. --have to never that and remember that the nra spent in the ballpark of $30 million helping him in the election. see thend we did president talk about further gun control as far as bump stock bans and further background checks. where do we stand now on those fronts? polly: right after the shooting tragedy that happened in
florida, we sought two conversations be held with the president. one was on the gun control side, hosting a variety of things like red flag laws, which would allow firearms to be taken from those who are believed to have mental health issues, increasing the age of purchase, and the bump stock band. and we see trump meet with the second side, the second amendment right, and you see them support other things, like having armed guards is, not having all of these different bands, not having the same kind of restrictions. he has played both sides here, but the end of the day has not used any of this legislation. the only thing we have seen progress on is the bump stock band, and that is not finalized. scarlet: how much of what you just said is supported by the nra, or is not opposed by the nra? supportedy have increases in background checks and the existing students them -- system. with the blood stocks, they
wanted to reevaluate the rules that were currently on file, but have not explicitly supported or condemned this stance. we are waiting to see the impact language of the rule -- exact language of the rule, which is yet to be released. scarlet: everything else you mentioned, increasing the agents changing the scope of the background check, that is andthing -- the age changing the scope of the background check, that is something the nra opposes. check, if ahe age store has that kind of restriction, they will not sell a firearm to someone under the age of 21, even if the law allows it at 18, that those stores are opening up to potential litigation. thea: what is going on with nra and gun demand, or supply and demand? , and what thehere terms we are seeing in the industry. and the pushback we are seeing from corporate, and what comes to mind is exporting goods cost. scarlet: bank of america,
citigroup is another one to look into. polly: over the past couple months, we have seen an increase in sales, particularly after the part when shooting. there was a significant jump -- parkland shooting. there was a significant jump two months in a row, which is interesting because we were seeing sluggishness in this region, both in publicly traded companies and sales numbers. julia: is this right, the fears of a crackdown as far as gun ownership is concerned? have we not seen that in the past, or is this an anomaly? polly: we have seen that in the past. what was astonishing is how much 17.3% forwent up, guns in march. that is a big spike year-over-year. scarlet: our thanks to polly for putting some perspective around the president upcoming speech. remarks ine his dallas when he begins speaking. how to the rich get richer? we asked lincoln ellis, the atior investement analyst
♪ julia: this is bloomberg markets. i'm julia chatterley. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu. u.s. stocks gaining their biggest amounts in a week as investors react well to a healthy jobs report. to below 4%,fell but how long can the good times roll? standing by with more is jason kelly, bloomberg editor for global television. with lincolnre ellis, the senior investment strategist at global trust. nice to see you. lincoln: good to be with you. jason: as they run up there, a lot of data this week, jobs report.is
what are they to make of this? lincoln: it is a bit of a goldilocks report. we saw the anomaly last month in -- and the the data data, and we are seeing that transfer to the broader part of the survey in the 3.9% number. i think you will see that pick back up, but the real interesting component of this is the wage numbers were soft and revised downward from the previous month. a kindally does provide of goldilocks scenario. i think you are seeing markets 4 rateto that as the 3- , it comes in a little bit. june is 100% surety, and then to september and december both, or one or the other. lincoln: let -- jason: let's go back to the fed decision this week, unchanged. what do you make of that and how much to the families that -- how much do they look at that right
now and how particular will -- printable do they think it is? lincoln: the broader question is about rates and what they think in terms of the incremental dollars that families have to allocate across their investment portfolios, whether that is in public or private markets, or debt instruments. this kind of jobs report and the high-frequency data we have been seeing over the course of the first quarter suggests a bit of a slowdown, but that is just a reorganization of the trajectory , that irrational exuberance we saw in the beginning of january, being recalibrated. also, in 2017, we had an extraordinarily robust year of returns across multiple asset classes. in thef a pullback trajectory is very much expected. that is very much worth noting that during the volatility we saw in february, the only kind of phone calls bit -- that we got in the family office business were where can we put money to work?
trade at a discount relative to what we have seen in the past or opportunities from the future? jason: talk about that. you talk about that exuberance, which is one way to talk about it, and volatility in the first quarter. volatility we have not seen of late. those phone calls you were getting. those were not panicked phone calls. they were more opportunistic, it sounds like, or more interested. lincoln: what we think in terms volatility picture is this is a healthy sorting of opportunities that we have generally been forced to make as investors. whether that is u.s. versus europe or allergic market -- emerging markets in terms of equity allocations or a shift u.s. exposure into investment grade, which is a move we make at northern trust, reallocating the kinds of risks that are embedded in that portfolio to adjust for the kind of growth that we were seeing and the kind of interest rate
environment we are moving into. jason: you mentioned growth. it has been such a growth market for some time. value conversation is one that i know all of your investors are having with you and probably within their own offices. how are they thinking about a potential return to value, someday? lincoln: someday. it has been a bit of a challenge for that dichotomy, underperforming growth for most of the past 10 years with one andption period in 2013 2014. in april, value did outperform growth, and we had episodic periods of where that trade-off has poked its head back up. what we noticed and wrote about in the quarterly piece was really trying to understand why or how investors were paying for growth over value. --t we saw is free clash low free cash flow, dividends earnings growth, and this is what the fed had in mind when they were pushing rates lower,
that they would actually make those stocks slightly less attractive on a relative basis because of the free cash flow of the characteristics that you see in the growth neighborhood were super compelling. they continued to be, it is worth noting, compelling now. nowquestion that investors face is on a relative basis, and given the disparity we have seen over that long period of time, whether or not there is value in the value space. we absolutely believe there is from a valuation perspective. it is a question of, as you rightly said at the beginning of the segment, for how long and where? lincoln: when you think about staying with the value conversation briefly, when we talked to invest -- scarlet: when you think about staying with the value conversation briefly, we have been talking to private equity, and they have been wrestling with high valuations, much tougher to do deals.
how does that factor into your strategy and device you are giving these guys? lincoln: valuations, again, are different across the capital stack, particularly in the multibillion-dollar, upper part of that neighborhood. we have seen challenges, although we continue to see m&a across the fourth quarter and first quarter as the economy continued to allow that to happen. what we have seen is you have kinds of opportunities where investors in both public and private markets have been looking is more in the middle and lower part of the capital stack and across particular kinds of somatic stash health care, infrastructure, technology, particularly in the networking space. those kinds of broader thematics that are longer and more -- endu -- indoor ring ring are ones that people want to participate in. jason: and those ones with long-duration have gotten a lot more sophisticated and a lot more eager, it feels like, to get into what has long been
termed alternative assets, whether that is private equity, hedge funds, real estate is something that has long been of interest, but even private credit in other areas. what is the most popular thing you are getting asked about right now? where are people starting to get interested? lincoln: the appetite continues to be there, particularly in the broad alternative space of ride it. credit and equity, people are very much aware of the valuation issues that are on the table. again, coming back to the broader thematic infrastructure -- thematics, infrastructure and health care have come from meetings were those have been top of mind, interestingly, from a geographic and political perspective on the health care front. on the infrastructure front, it is interesting to know that after the tax legislation passed, we were going to move on to an infrastructure bill in the u.s.. it seems to have slid off the table, but it is not just the u.s. where that is of interest. there are many places around the
globe, particularly in non-us developed markets and the emerging economies, where infrastructure not -- is not just bridges and tunnels, but digital infrastructure will be a huge part of the conversation going forward. jason: very briefly, you mentioned the tax plan and that news earlier in the year. has that played out the way you would expect it to with your clients? air they -- are they as optimistic as many thought they might be? we have seen in the family office spaces people spend a lot of time trying to figure out, based on the states they live in or the jurisdictions they are engaged with, what it means. there are revisions happening ,nd ill opinions being created so the shakeout has yet to come, which could provide some more fuel to the fire in the back terms of investment dollars coming out, and it will have applications for particular asset classes going forward. guys: that is why we have
like you, lincoln ellis from northern trust global family office. scarlet: thank you so much, jason. youave a great function for to check out. if you missed our charts or want a copy of the charts that we highlighted, you can find it on gtv pulling up something julie hyman was talking about, the s&p 500 moving more than 1%. 18 times this year, four times the amount of time it happened in 2017. a gain of 1.3% is the biggest advance since april 10, but it is common currency -- a common currency this day -- occurrence these days. .
-- weight watchers. mindy grossman, the ceo, sat down with bloomberg to discuss the company's results. mindy: our biggest competitors are people thinking they can get healthy themselves. only 5% of people use a commercial weight-loss program, for example. if we can be the partner to that 95% and be there everything app for community and wellness, we will still be the best weight loss program. freestyle, which is a new program that launched this january, the week and why it is resonating so well is because it .s completely livable pointfree, over 200 zero foods, and people are losing the same, even more weight even all that x ability. that is what we will keep delivering and indicating against. >> you have berkshire hathaway,
jpmorgan coming in for health care initiatives. at some point, that has to start to bite into your -- mindy: there is a difference between healthy living and health care. we also have a business that has been growing as well. -- we sink, we think with 1.3 million activity devices. as we continue to implement that and continue that engagement, we have one point 7 million people monthly who are in our closed loop community platforms. hence that is why our engagement is so significant. some of my favorite stats, we have 2.5 million people that use our barcode scanner, and 260 million foods tracked. that is 260 million opportunities for engagement. so we are not just a program. the community aspect of what we do is so powerful. that is why we are spending and investing in all of the assets
makeke that journey, and it even more personalized by using the data and the ai, so everyone can feel it is their ww. for people, that becomes the first thing they look at in the morning and when they go to bed. sensitive is your business to the consumer that has extra money in their pocket? do you track mostly consumer spending? mindy: we look at everything. we want to democratize wellness. there is a tremendous amount of affordability to what we offer to help them.let: scarlet: from new york, this is bloomberg.
today, we are looking at currencies through the futures market. today on the day, you can see that the sfx markets are very quiet, small moves for the various pairs. the bloomberg dollar index of a fraction, the euro down slightly, the and downs lightly, -- the yen down slightly, and the aussie down slightly. take a look at the dollar index, and up half a percent on the year, the best year since 2016. yen, and aussie all down, the aussie on pace for its worst year since 2015. that, by some, is considered to be a growth currency. so maybe that suggests it has tones of risk off. of course, the driving currency here, the dollar, let's hop into the bloomberg and take a look at the dollar index. an interesting chart, and you can do this -- view this using the gte function. we have seen since the presidency, when president trump
took office, we had a big decline in the dollar index, down, down, down. more recently, we are seeing a countertrend rally for the dollar index about the downtrend, breaking it, telling you the buyers are trying to break -- take control. this congestion down there appears to be going to the bulls . it could take the dollar index anywhere from 94, 96, maybe some nice symmetry. this dollar value could be continuing when we look at this chart. i would like to bring in joe carry. you are also a forex trader for point72 for 17 years. what do you think about this chart? a look atu take dollar-yen, it is near its highs right here, right around 1.09. 109. but if you look at bonds, they are aggressively short, interest rates are high. what will happen when interest rates start to go lower if
people move -- decide to get out of bonds and start buying back? there is a wedge, people get out, they get squeezed, and interest rates go lower. that is what will happen. then you will see the dollar-yen start to move, and it will probably move lower here. this is about a 50% range from the election high down to the 104 level. abigail: i love that analysis, but let's get closer to your trading idea, which is an entirely different pair with the pound. let's take a look at your chart in the terminal. it can be seen using the gte function. joe: if you look at the pound. abigail: an hourly chart, about three weeks. joe: this is something you could do with the dollar here. you see how the pound has been coming off, and if you look back over the last month or so, you can see it has been coming off quite a bit. here, you can see that the bond
is starting to diverge and it is starting to move higher as prices move lower. that is an indication that price may be changing. if you see is the first time here, that might not be a big deal. if you see it the second time, where this is higher, you start to think. aice is lower, so that is good indication that price might change and go higher. abigail: let's take a look at this on the pound in the description page for the futures, because this is pretty interesting, that you can trade this with the futures market. what would be your thought? you would be buying? joe: i would be buying, because you can put a stop right below that low you put in today, and we had a lot of upside, given that has come and off -- come off so much. given to futures, contract sizes 1000 pounds. pick value is 1000 per point, and the take site is .001. there are significant upside you can make given the liquidity you
can access in these markets. abigail: joe perry, thank you for joining us. julianne scarlet, back to you. .carlet: thank you so much let's get you the first word news with mark crumpton. mark: rudy giuliani is looking to clarify some of the comments he made over the past few days, which suggested a disconnect with the white house. giuliani, who recently joined president trump's legal team, put out a statement today after mr. trump said giuliani needed to "get his facts straight." payments the president made to his personal lawyer, michael:, were not a campaign relegation -- violate , were not aohen campaign violation. president washe well is in his power to fire james comey. the u.s. delegation to negotiate trade in china is on its way
home after two days of talks ended with little traction. president trump discussed the matter at joint base andrews today before heading to dallas for the nra convention. president trump: i have great respect for president xi. that is why we are being so nice. we have a great relationship, but we have to bring fairness into trade between the u.s. and china. mark: the delegation, which included delegation -- treasury secretary steve mnuchin and commerce secretary wilbur ross met with officials in beijing to narrow the trade surplus with china by $200 billion over the next two years. appointee is leaving his job at the environmental protection agency. the deputy associated ministry at her -- associate administrator of the announcement makes in the fourth senior administrator to resign in two weeks. let's go to president trump, addressing the national rifle association convention in
dallas. [applause] president trump: [inaudible] thank you, thank you folks, thank you very much. it is a great honor to be here, and i want to thank so many people for such an incredible job. patriots, they really are, and they do not get the kind of adulation, but really, they do and we know that. i want to think waymo pierre. -- wayne lapierre. [applause] to thank trump: i want our great friend, vice president mike pence, for his terrific remarks. [applause] president trump: i also want to recognize our great texas leaders. we love tax this. we love them -- texas. we love them. [applause]
president trump: gov. greg abbott, my friends -- where is greg? gov. greg abbott. he is running, and i have already done it, but greg, i fully endorse you. you are indoors. he is doing a great job. [applause] ok, you hadump: your water just pouring down on top of you, it kept coming and coming, crawling and crawling, we need money, money, money. you know what? we gave it to you. [applause] president trump: fully endorsed. attorney general ken paxton, a tremendous guy. [applause] president trump: by the way, ken, you have my full endorsement, and your wife has my full endorsement. she had a big victory. senator john cornyn has been with me since the beginning.
john, thank you. [applause] president trump: thank you, john. man --dorsement to this ted. cruz.is he gap go -- ted where is he? [laughter] -- [applause] booing]and president trump: thank you. that was very rousing. [laughter] president trump: that is a good sign. [laughter] president trump: congressman pete sessions and michael burgess, great friends. [applause] president trump: we are also kurt, dima --lie
diamond silk. where are you? [applause] president trump: they are so great. brownell,dson, pete and leslie rutledge. finally, i want to thank all of you, the true american patriots of the nra who defend our rights, liberty, and our great american flag. thank you. [applause] president trump: the people in have never taken our freedom for granted, another. -- never. and you have never stopped fighting for our beloved constitution. incredible people, thank you. [applause] you give yourp:
time, energy, you were a vote -- your vote, and your energy to stand for those sacred rights given to us by god, including the right to self-defense. [applause] president trump: and now, thanks to your activism and dedication, you have an administration fighting to protect your second amendment, and we will protect the second. [applause] president trump: your second siegeent rights are under , but they will never, ever be under siege as long as i am your president. [applause] trump: all of us -- thank you. thank you.
all of us here today are united by the same timeless values. we believe that our liberty is a gift from our creator and that no government can't ever taken away -- can never take it away. we believe in the rule of law. [applause] president trump: and we support the men and women of law enforcement. [applause] president trump: we have pride in our history and respect for our heritage. we put our hands on our hearts for the pledge of allegiance. stand for theudly national anthem. we privately stand. [applause]
, usa, usa, usa. [cheering] president trump: what people. what great people. this is a record crowd. an all-time record crowd, you do know that. just remember. [applause] president trump: we love our country and we believe our citizens deserve a government that shows them the same love .nd loyalty in return for the last 15 months, that is exactly what we have been doing. we are all finally putting america first. [applause]
president trump: and we are seeing the incredible results. as the result of our massive tax cuts, everybody is benefiting and everybody is happy, and the democrats are very concerned. in watch how well we do 2018. you watch. you watch. get out and vote. [applause] president trump: don't be complacent. history says when you win the presidency, you get some places. do you know the feeling? not too many. [laughter] president trump: 90% of the time, you win the presidency, and for whatever reason you lose the midterm. the word is complacent. i kept thinking to myself, why is that? i wonder why? you have this great win and you take a breath, you relax. all of a sudden, three years is
up and they are fighting like hell and you are complacent. we cannot get complacent. we have to win the midterm. [applause] president trump: because since the election, we have created 3.2 million jobs -- unthought of. if we would have said that three years ago during the campaign, said what a have horrible exaggeration. that is so terrible. they would not have believed that. 3.2 million. the unemployment rate, you saw that just today, just fell the lead 4% -- 24% since the first time at the beginning of this sense -- below 4% since the beginning of this century. [applause]
president trump: you know, i heard it was about 19 years. i said wait a minute. the beginning of the century sounds better, so i say the beginning of the century. [laughter] president trump: more beautiful. [laughter] the has reached another all-time -- in history -- record low. in history. [applause] president trump: by the way, kanye west must have some power, because you probably saw that i doubled my african-american poll numbers. we went from 11% to 22% and one week. thank you guys. [applause] president trump: when i saw the
numbers, i said your must be a mistake. how can that happen? even the pollsters thought that must be a mistake. [laughter] president trump: know, we have come a long way. remember, i would come into big rooms, big audiences, and say what do you have to lose? the democrats have always had that vote. what do you have to lose? horrible on crime, education, on everything. what do you have to lose you go they've -- lose? they won, for me and and now the numbers are much higher than they ever were with african-americans. [applause] president trump: and the same thing with hispanic american unemployment, which is also at the lowest level in history. unemployment, lowest level in history, and women, unemployment, many women is at the lowest level in almost 20
years. think of that. we have the best employment numbers we have virtually ever had, and yet all we hear about is this phony russia which on. .- witchhunt that is all we hear about. [booing] when i amtrump: just walking on the stage, a highly respected judge in virginia made statements. it says, the wall street journal says judge questions mueller's authority to prosecute manafort. [applause] manafort trump: paul is a nice guy, and he worked for me for a very short period of time, like what, a couple of months? than what happened? he worked for ronald reagan, bob worked for, as a firm, john mccain. they work for others.
does anybody say that? no. he is out there fighting. on fake news cnn. [booing] nbc mayt trump: i think be morse is -- more distorted and worse. on cnn, they have a headline -- judge in manafort case says mueller's aim is to hurt trump. do you believe that? it is called a witchhunt. i said give me that article. i want to read it. it was a few minutes before i walked on stage. a federal judge question special counsel robert mueller's authority to bring tax and bank fraud charges, unrelated -- that.ted -- nobody knows everybody thinks oh -- unrelated to the 2016 election against former trump campaign manager chairman paul manafort. he is a good person. he is. i believe he is a good person.
-- c.s.ev ellis ellis, suggested the charges before the u.s. district court by the eastern district of virginia were just part of the mueller team's designed oppression of mr. manafort to give up information on president donald trump. people in the campaign have been saying that for a long time. it is a witchhunt. any of that information -- none of that information has to do with information related to the russian government coordination and the campaign of donald trump. how does this have anything to do with the campaign, the judge asks? let me tell you, folks, we are all fighting battles, but i love
these battles. [inaudible] applause]d president trump: thank you. can you imagine if we ever called for a rally in washington, d.c.? there were not be enough room. there would not be enough room. we have a lot of love going on. people don't realize we have great love going on in this country, great love. it is right here. by the way, we saw the recent poll that came out, the rasmussen, 51%-50 2%, the highest level i have ever been asked. how does that happen when you only get bad publicity? how does that happen? that is because -- happen?
of peoplecause a lot realize that what you see and what you read on television is fake. the people are smart. [applause] president trump: you have a battle also. you have a battle to keep your rights, and we will keep those rights. you will be so happy. you have to say, you were not sure that trump was going to win, but you all went out there. you all went out there and you voted. you voted. [applause] timesent trump: i know at , pens, trump, pens, a week before, they came out with a lot of phony polls. do you know what that is called? suppression. they convinced you that you are wasting your time. why should you vote? go to a movie and watch the results. very few of the people in this room and in this country does
, and we reallyt had a big night. remember they said there is no college,the electoral for me. there is no way to do not take -- two 270. but 306 was ok? [applause] ait.ident trump: wei 306. , and we areat time doing better now than ever before. popular nowre more from this standpoint. when i was running, i said we will give you tax cuts. by the way, we are guesstimating obamacare. vote the evening we were going to terminate obamacare. we got a bad vote, you know that, right? that was not a nice thing.
that was an unexpected vote. if you look at the massive of-cut bill, we also got rid the individual mandate, which is the worst part obamacare. right? [applause] knowdent trump: added not if the people in texas will like this, but we also got -- in alaska. that is called energy for this country. it is called energy. [applause] president trump: i think you are happy with that, i think. right? we delivered. when we were running, i would a we are going to this, that, that, a certain person who is not a very fair person in the media said i have to say, trump has actually delivered more than he promised, which is probably the first time people have ever heard that statement. we actually delivered more than we promised.
let me just tell you this -- we are really doing well with north korea. we really are. [applause] president trump: all right? we are doing real well. remember, they said oh, it will be terrible. they were actually saying three months ago, when the rhetoric was rather sharp, do you agree? i will not use the rhetoric now, i am trying to comment down -- calm it down a little bit. [laughter] you can use it. i know that you come from texas, however many of their you are. [applause] president trump: for years, for years they had this problem and everybody has said oh, don't talk, don't talk, do not believe them. the last administration had a
policy of silence. don't call. you may make them and him angry. [laughter] president trump: don't talk. if a horrible decision is made about -- is a horrible statement is made about the united states, don't see anything -- don't say anything. [laughter] president trump: oh my gosh, oh my god. [applause] president trump: same thing with iran. we are signing that horrible deal and they are marching in the streets, saying death to america. deal when is going to they are marching and saying death to america? who marches? they are saying death to america and we have the foreign minister. [booing]
president trump: as represented by -- [booing] president trump: not the best negotiator we have ever seen. he never walked away, except to be in that bicycle race where he fell and broke his leg. [laughter] president trump: that was the only time. i said don't tell anyone you broke her leg, just so you don't want to go negotiate. [laughter] president trump: but he broke his leg, and i learned from this , at 73 years old, you never go into a bicycle race, ok? [laughter] president trump: you just don't do that. i am not 73, he was. but i will be there. [laughter] president trump: but we have great things going, and with
respect to north korea, remember how strong it was, and they were saying this is going to be nuclear war -- no. do you know what gets you nuclear war? weakness gets you nuclear war. [applause] president trump: weakness gets you nuclear war. so let's talk about guns, shall we? [applause] francent trump: paris, has the toughest gun laws in the world. the president just left washington, emmanuelle. , great guy. nobody has guns in paris, nobody, and we all are member more than 130 people, plus tremendous numbers of people that were horribly, horribly wounded. nobody talks about them. they talk about the people that died, but they did not mention that 250 people had horrible,
horrible wounds. they never mention that. restauranted in a and various other coast proximity places. they were brutally killed by a small group of terrorists that had guns. they took their time and gunned them down, one by one. boom, come over here. boom, come over here. boom. if you were in those rooms, one of those people and the survivors said it just lasted forever. but if one employee or just one patron had a gun or if one person in this room had been gun, the terrorists
would have fled or been shot, and it would have been a whole different story. [applause] trump -- president trump: i mean, right? right? we all know what is going on in chicago. but chicago has the toughest gun laws in our country. happening? what is it seems as if we are going to outlaw guns, like so many people -- you do -- democrats better get out and vote. [laughter] then we will -- and you say. we are going to have to outlaw trucks,ely all vans and which are now the new form of
death for the maniacal terrorists. they take a truck and went over 8 people and wounded 16 like what happened in new york and what just happened. it is happening all over. let's ban immediately on trucks and vans, maybe all cars. how about cars? let's not sell any more cars. i love you, too. thank you. [applause] scarlet: i recently --president trump: i recently read a story that london, which has unbelievably tough gun laws, a once very prestigious hospital right in the middle is like a horrible stab wounds. yes, that is right. they do not have guns. they have knives.
and instead -- it said there is blood all over the hospital. they say it is as bad as a military war zone hospital. knives, knives, knives. london has not been used to that. they are getting used to it. pretty tough. we are here today because we recognize a simple fact, the one thing that has always stood between the american people and the elimination of our second amendment has been conservatives in congress willing to fight. [applause] president trump: we are fighting to defend our freedom. we need the people in washington to support our freedom, to support our candidates, to
support the people that have to raise their hand. you know, they say we have a majority. we have a majority of one person. that is not really a majority. we need republicans to do it right to get the kind of things we want. we got to get republicans elected. we got to do great in 2018. [applause] midterms trump: those we have to win. we need judges who will enforce our laws, protect us, and life.erican way of the constitution cannot be changed by vera katz -- by bureaucrats or the united nation. that is why we are nominating federal judges who will interpret the law as written. [applause] in my firstump:
year, i nominated and the senate confirmed more circuit judges than any new administration by , and we will have the all-time record very soon. [applause] obamaent trump: president was very nice to us because he left us a lot of judges. i said, that is a lot of judges. almost 140. that is a lot of judges. i was very surprised. i was very happy. and we put an incredible new judge on the supreme court, judge neil gorsuch. [applause] virtuallytrump: everything will democrats in the senate opposed neil gorsuch. just like they have consistently opposed judges who will protect your basic freedoms. and by the way, the way they are slow walking people that are
supposed to be working for us in government. if you look at what they are doing, in the history of this country, there has never been anything like what the democrats are doing on great people who gave up their jobs and their lives to take a job as an ambassador or people working for our government, and they cannot get approved because every single one of them is being slow walked by the democrats. it never happened before. you know what? memories,have long but i hope we don't have to worry about it because we will be there a long time so we don't have to worry about it. what they are doing is disgraceful. what they are doing is disgraceful. what they are doing to the wall and immigration is disgraceful. you just take a look at the border. take a look. take a look at what is happening. my administration and conservative in congress were
rights,to oppose your to rebuild our military, which we are doing a great job of rebuilding. [applause] president trump: to restore our prosperity, to secure our community, and defend our borders. [applause] we have theump: worst immigration laws anywhere in the world. but i tell you what, it is not easy for people to come in. i will tell you. we have the worst laws. ther years of defending i borders of other countries, we go to war as with other countries. we should not be there. we go into wars and defend their borders and do not defend our own borders. [applause] president trump: and we are going to start defending our country. we are going to start defending our borders. [applause]
president trump: you have all seen on television all over the papers the illegal migrants pouring up through mexico, flooding the border. many from central america, honduras, all countries coming up by the thousands. we are stopping them at different fronts, but we do not have laws. we have laws that were written by people that truly could not love our country. [applause] president trump: illegal end.ration must we are going to have strong borders. i will tell you, we have maxed out every law. we are going to have truly strong and we will take people into our country, but they will come in based on merit, not
picking somebody out of a bin. [applause] president trump: we are not going to let our country be overwhelmed. we are going to demand congress to secure the border in the upcoming c.r. it is going to be very soon. going to be very soon. in recent months, democratic lawmakers have a against legislation to close deadly immigration loopholes like catch and release. how about that one? we caught them. oh, release them. bye-bye. welcome to america. welcome to america. that is what we have. we are going to keep the violent criminals out. senate democrats, you saw what happened there. what he did to one of the finest people in our country. what he did to the admiral. what he did is a disgrace.
john. [applause] bobident trump: bill and against the legislation named for someone gunned down by a five-time deported illegal immigrant. you so what happened with that court case. can you believe the result of that case? can you believe that? the same sentence along with nearly every other democrat also voted to protect something that is actually becoming very unpopular he, sanctuary cities. can you believe that? in congress want to disarm law-abiding americans. at the same time, they are releasing dangerous criminal aliens and gang members onto our streets. these countries send their worst. remember in my opening speech, i get criticized for it?
remember? just what. they are not sending their finest. that i can tell you. [applause] president trump: we are getting the real beauties in here. 13t we are taking ms- horrible killer gang members.we are getting them out because our guys are much tougher than theirs. there is not even a little bit of a contest. that is the only language they understand. that is the only language they understand. these are savage killers. my administration believes our cities should be safe havens for americans, not sanctuaries for criminals. [applause] and we believe: that violent gang members must be thrown out of our country immediately. not let to stay, fester, and get larger.
we get them out, and we are taking them out by the thousands. [applause] president trump: we had the right laws, which we can have very quickly with cooperation, we would not even have a problem. it would be so much better, so much easier. we believe that politicians support criminal aliens before american citizens should be voted out of office immediately. [applause] president trump: as we secure our borders, we are also supporting the heroes who fight crime, serve our citizens, and secure our schools. our brave men and brave women in blue. we love them. [applause] president trump: in my administration, we have a simple policy.
we will protect those who protect us. you saw what i did with the equipment, the excess equipment that was sitting in warehouses to never be used again. other administrations did not want to give it to the police. they said it is too much protection. it looks too strong. military. guest that it looks like military -- it looks like military. what.ess it is being distributed. [applause] president trump: and it is better than they can ever buy. our thoughts and prayers go out to the slain dallas police officer, who was last week murdered in the line of duty very close to this arena. we ask god to help those who were wounded. they will recover. they will be better. they will be back. we send our love.
so important. thank you. [applause] president trump: we mourn together with the entire dallas police department. it is a great police department. a police force that has lost too many heroes but has never lost its will to protect and serve you. [applause] president trump: we are also taking very strong action to secure and protect our most valuable resource, our children. [applause] all of us here: today are deeply committed to school safety. nothing is more important than protecting innocent lives. chris tell you, wayne and and all the people at the nra, we speak about it all the time. these are great people. these are great americans. these people have great heart. they know what they are doing. our entire nation was filled
with shock and grief by the monstrous attack on a high school in parkland, florida. we mourn for the victims and their families. have gotten to know members of those families. these are a couple people. our hearts break for every american who has suffered the horrors of the school shootings. terribletermath of the attack, i met with the survivors and parents of school shooting victims at the white house. i was inspired like all of you were by their incredible courage. we agreed that it is not enough to simply take actions that make us feel like we're making a difference. we must ensure that we actually make a difference. anadministration has pursued aggressive strategy on community safety. we are working to improve early warning systems so that when the police are called, when the community sees the red flag, which they saw in parkland all
over the place, there has never been a case where more red flags have been shown. swift action is taken by the authorities. law-abiding gun owners want to keep firearms out of the hands of those that pose a danger to themselves and others. we all want that. we all want that. [applause] president trump: i recently signed legislation that includes more than $2 billion to approve school safety -- improve school safety, including the funding for training and metal detectors and security and mental health. mental health was a big one. they don't like to talk about mental health. mental health. that was the number one example. that legislation also made vital improvements to our background check system, which everybody wants. finally, all of us agree that we must harden certain schools.
at the same time -- julia: going to steal you back from the president. he is talking at the forum in dallas. it did feel like a political look ahead to the midterms in november. he made the point, look if you not see greater good control, you need to vote and prevent democrats. to talk about other issues related to gun control or a lack of it. . we did his death he reiterated his comments -- he reiterated his comments about florida and what it means to have someone harmed in the room defending from those threats. he said kanye west credited him for a rise in poll numbers. thead criticisms of interference investigation. headed to theing
nra as a result of the campaign ing in 2016. he said we are doing really well as far as north korea is concerned. a wide-ranging conference that continues. we are joined now i guess to covers the gun industry. you said earlier that this is kind of the unofficial kickoff for the campaigning for the midterms. >> that is right. in addition to vice president pence and president trump, you have other politicians there. perhaps most notably, you have someone who brought the concealed carry reciprocity bill earlier this year. scarlet: he was a confirmed an invited speaker for this event. this event is part of the nra's four-day annual meeting, but it is a must stop or a destination for any elected official. this is what they say on the website as well. it is a pit stop for anyone who wants to pursue higher office
because they need to come here and make their case for why the second amendment is so important. >> that is right. this is really their core audience. you have people here who took time out of their lives and with that money to attend a big convention in a big city like dallas. certainly not a cheap trip to make. you have to be summoned very dedicated to the cost to attend something like this. those are the people that are going to go to the polls and might encourage their friends and families to go to the polls. they could be potential donors. scarlet: getting back to that point about the president urging everyone to make sure they vote in the midterm elections. julia: talk about this issue specifically. clearly when you are looking at the two different parties, democrats and republicans, particularly as far as the house is concerned, it is forever a contentious issue. but how does it play into what we are expecting as far as november is concerned for the candidates involved here? >> i get will be one of the biggest talking points we see this election season, in part because of parkland and in part because we have seen groups on
the anti-gun and gun side advocate for the candidates, really put their candidates forward already. we are months out from that election. we are already seeing that could have a debate earlier this season. it will be a major talking point going forward. scarlet: you mentioned a code-3 who presented the concealed carry bill. >> and passed the house that has not been brought before the senate. scarlet: if it were to be introduced to the senate, what are the odds of it passing? >> that remains to be seen. it will be a serious fight. because it is effectively allowing concealed carry permits to work the same way as a drivers license. some have said that might be a states rights issue. potentially there would be lawsuits. the senate does not want a loss. julia: i just want to bring up the comments that trump made reading comments critical of the robert mueller pro and the election elected interference. high and activate an array because there are reports they
are also being investigated here. >> that is right. there was one admission made by the nra, which is they received roughly $2500 from individuals with russian addresses, which are not necessarily russian nationals, over the course of the election season. the emails and correspondences that represented senator wyden have been turned over to the federal election commission. but whether they investigate and furthermore whether they find anything remains to be seen. right now, dealing with a lot of potential and reports. julia: we do not know as you pointed out several times. again, points to the scope of the investigation. investigation. scarlet: absolutely. thank you so much. thank you for watching this through and previewing the fact that this would be more like a campaign rally. it did feel like something that kicked off the campaign for the midterm elections. polly covers guns for bloomberg news.
we will continue to monitor the president's's speech to the nra. you can continue watching his comments on live go and bloomberg. still ahead, in the best way to play time warner and the decision on at&t. a reminder that you will want to to good alltv the charts that we highlighted throughout our programs. we have a couple of different charts here, including the dollar rally to continue. this is something of a government earlier -- something abigail brought up earlier. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
expected. i think that is the way -- i think that is safe to say. stock reactions have been tepid. jim: exactly. coming into earnings season, it was expected that s&p earnings growth would be about 17% with about 80% of s&p 500 components having reported. that is actually running at 25%. julie: sounds great. jim: sounds great, but under the surface, the companies that , the top 70% have beaten and 51% of them have actually traded higher the day after. the numbers are there. but the stock reaction is not. of course this has been a very choppy market over the last couple weeks. that displays a lot of it. coming into earnings season, we thought we would see a lot of significant realized moves in stocks when they reported earnings. we have not seen that. julie: is there an advantage then to using options in that
kind of environment when the reactions for earnings are so unexpected? jim: what you have seen is you've implied volatility, which is relatively high compared to realize in terms of option structures. what that's these two is selling the premium. you can take it manage of earnings embedded height and implied volatility and sell it. we are still holding out hope here for what we would think would be a little more rational and move the way we expect on these earnings. julie: we will see. we have a ways to go. what you are looking at today is not an earnings trade. jim: get away from earnings. julie: more of an event straight but not an earnings trade. you are looking at time warner and at&t here and the sort of will they or won't they get approval. jim: exactly. it has been a painful few weeks. thatomm bidding for xpi,
requires antitrust approval from china. a lot of uncertainty there. stocks have gotten hit. this is one trade we have more conviction in. time warner is set to be purchased by at&t. the department of justice antitrust trial ended earlier this week. the judge has indicated that he will have a decision on june 12. the agreement is set to expire on june 21. so there is news coming here. put theyst has beginning probability of this going through about 65%. many other analysts out there higher, thehtly probability of that outcome, but we like the structure here that carries well, which is to say you can put it on and you have long exposure if the deal is in fact approved. julie: quickly, tell us what it is. do. here is what we
we go out to january and sell an 80 strike put. time warner goes all the way down there. turnaround by 95, 100 call spread in july. obviously, that captures the decision. if it is approved, the deal gets done. --don't think time warner even a broken deal will go back to 80. julie: we will be watching. thank you very much. julia: lenny give you a quick look at what is going on for the u.s. equity majors right now. you can see a bump all rally. relatively unchanged week if we end up like this for the s&p 500. in particular, the weight of apple dominated to the top five listing here and the dollar index higher. "what'd you miss?" is up next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
group's annual meeting in dallas. president trump: your second amendment rights are under siege, but they will never ever be under siege as long as i'm your president. mark: the president did not elaborate how he believes the second amendment is under siege. the spanish prime minister has declared that "spanish democracy has defeated." he delivered a special statement to the country in reaction to the dismantling of the basque separatist group. he said it was not a time for television and that the first should be with the victims. earlier, he announced his government will continue to investigate and punish the crimes committed by them. hundreds of war veterans and civilians rallied in sarajevo today in support of bosnian muslim military commanders suspected of war crimes through the 1992 to 1995 conflict.