tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 8, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
the meeting with kim jong-un. it will be his second visit to the country. mr. trump said he also met with over easter weekend. the plan date for the meeting has been agreed to, but he has yet to reveal when or where it will happen. the president announced the news while announcing plans to nuclear from the iran agreement. a rebel enclave left in central syriac, and the besieged southern area. there was an agreement reached last week between insurgents and russia to leave the area or surrender. the syrian government will take control after all of the rebels have left. the congo government has outbreak.n ebola some deadly cases are confirmed. a team of experts will head to the region on wednesday to implement measures to keep the disease from spreading. without preventative measures, the ebola virus can spread
causes death in about 90% of cases. and a criminal investigation is being opened into the case of former new york attorney general eric schneiderman. he says he strongly contests the claims but says he will resign at the end of business today. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. julia: live from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am julia chatterley. -- scarlet: and i am
scarlet fu. joe: and i am joe weisenthal. the question is, what did you miss? scarlet: president trump says he will pull out of the iran nuclear deal for the highest level of sanctions against that country. and disney reports fiscal second-quarter results next hour. and disney could have some competition in its bid for fox comcast, setting up for a potential rival bid. we speak to the disney ceo and 4:00 p.m.ob iger at julia: new york time. julia:-- 4:00 p.m. new york time. julia: what'd you miss? president trump has pulled out of the iranian nuclear deal, and he decided also to reinstate sanctions on iran. this decision is a policy of the
obama administration, and it sparked immediate reaction from leaders around the world and on capitol hill. the vice-chairman for kissinger associates, jim strugger. i am stumbling around. it is great to have you with us. this was telegraphed. i guess, what happens now to the iranian nuclear deal? jim: well, that is one of the big questions, what next? the question is what do you do do?, what does iran do they continue the work with the other countries, the signatories, including three american allies? and then the second question is what do the others do. is about secondary
sanctions, which penalize companies, those who buy oil from iran, foreign banks that do business with iran, and anyone who trades with iran, utilizing american dollars. these are all very complicated issues, and we will not really know the answers until the regulations are put out as to actually what this means in practice, but it could be very divisive for our allies. it is very harmful to american companies that have utilized and those that have lifted sanctions, and they're not many of them. for example, the airlines have. not many of them, for example, the airlines have. start activating centrifuges again, start doing research again, and they get werer to a bomb than they
before. they were really stymied, at least for 10 years and beyond, but now what will they do? not necessarily to develop a bomb, but most certainly to develop nuclear capability and, perhaps, a bomb. scarlet: it opens pandora's box, certainly. we heard from the president , saying the agreement is between five countries, excluding the u.s., and it was said any nation would be naïve to negotiate. a message like with korea and kim jong-un. is no plan for nuclear agreement, either all or nothing. that is it. the iranians want to keep the agreement with the five other countries, china, russia, britain, france, and germany. scarlet: and the eu.
bob: they are a major player. the question is, will they be willing to do this? the iranians will be willing to do this, i think, if they can succeed in avoiding any interruption in trade or finance or oil sales with the other countries. on the other hand, if american sanctions make it difficult for european companies, european banks, and european world companies, in particular, to do business there, then the iranians say, what good is this? we can work with them, but we are going to get hurt indirectly by the ricochet effect, so there are a lot of people in iran who did not like the deal anyway, and they will come back and say, we are not getting anything out of this. we have to resume our nuclear program as we did for. joe: -- as we did before. joe: bob, is there anything kim jong-un takes away from this
use in the upcoming negotiations? is there anything the iranian regime can learn from this recent use in the upcoming elevation of kim jong-un, and they sort of figure out what they want to do next? it will makethink it more suspicious that the u.s. will adhere to the agreements that are reached, but the interesting thing for the united states, which puts this administration in a more comic in position, they have to -- they criticize the iran deal -- which puts this ministration in a more difficult position, they have criticized -- this in a moretion difficult position. they have criticized the iranian deal. criticized as doing something , so even athe iran longer term set of provisions. they have to do a number of things for even greater
visibility, so it raises the bar on the trump administration the north, makes with the and i think that is something they have to bear in mind, but it certainly will raise doubts in kim's mind about american reliability, but public opinion -- it makes the president have to be tougher eve or than the iran, and that might be difficult. julia: with each of the players here -- excuse me, to fixate on here, what islly in their best interest? when you're looking at the tensions they are facing with the saudi's, with the israelis, with the scaling up of the tensions with the united states, what is the best reaction, given the domestic reaction at home, too? bob: the problem is there are different groups in iran. there is the revolutionary guard and the mullahs.
on the other hand, if the iranians believe they can keep the part of the deal that exists with the europeans and the russians and the chinese and keep trade going, keep their investment going, keep oil sales to them, there might be an to them, there might be an incentive to continue with the agreement, and some have said they would do that. if, on the other hand, american sanctions make it virtually impossible for the europeans to do business with them, and the iranians say, well, we are not getting any business out of this. businesses being cut that because they are putting pressure on american allies, france, germany, britain, then the hardliners are going to say, doingly are the americans this, but the secondary sanctions are hurting us. julia: no incentive to allow them to continue without the united states in this nuclear deal then, in this case?
bob: yes, and that is why koran -- why macron and mebob:rkel and others have said do not get out of this deal. it will indirectly affect those countries and create tension between the u.s. and its allies, and while we're talking about lessons, the japanese and the south koreans and others, the allies in asia are going to say how do we know what the americans are going to do? this would lead to adverse implications to us? rmats, withb ho kissinger associates, thank you. bob: thank you. up, breakingng ground as one of the non-binary actors, asia kate dillon. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: what'd you miss? dillon as one of the first non-binary actors, and she joins us to talk about what it means to change the conversation around gender identity. nice to have you on with us. asia: it is really nice to be here. thank you. scarlet: you are the first non-binary identifying actor. tell us about that. asia: i identify as gender non-binary, which is a term used by some people, myself included, who see their gender identity outside of man or woman. scarlet: when it comes to your character on the show was taylor
non-binary, or was that because of you? non- taylor was always binary, and they auditioned ofple, trans people, people all different gender identities and sexual orientations, and ultimately, they wanted to cast the west actor for the part, and that turned out to be me, and i am -- they want to cast the best actor for the parts, and that turned out to be me, and i am so grateful. in this country and around the world, people do not have anyone who looks or thinks like them, and sometimes you have to see the thing in order to know that you can see the thing, so it --ls really bad a flying really gratifying and humbling to put a part that i no means so much to other people. scarlet: i know you do research for this role. those that identify with you or who have talked to you about
this? asia: well, the feedback i get, not only from people who stop me on the street but also on social is very. there are people who say i identify as non-binary or trance, and having you as someone i can look up to has changed my life. i get messages from parents who say they did not know how to interact with their child, you once having the conversation about changing or transitioning gender identity, and having taylor or me as a andrence is extraordinary, i often get messages from people who say, and i am pair of eyes a -- i paraphrase in, i am 62 and i often get messages from people whoyears old, and i have never heard of this before, -- i am paraphrasing, i am 62 years old, and i have never heard of this before, and i am following you now. that is extraordinary.
scarlet: a benefit. let's talk about "billions." this a good place to talk about gender identity? asia: when we first meet taylor at the beginning of season two, taylor is entering a world that is full of much use low -- of ismo and moe -- of mach bravado, and they jump in stature in the company, edit think it is the perfect world to explore the ways in which machis bravado can either help or hinder you in a career. and recognizing talent and intuition in doing the job and everything else is secondary. asia: exactly. taylor can make bobby money. prefer using
pronouns as opposed to the gender specific "he" or "she." how is this helping or impeding social progress? toa: i use that as opposed he or she or many other options. labels, as we know, can be very hurtful when other people label us without our permission, but when we label ourselves, that can be really free. scarlet: in addition to taylor on "millions," you have also been on "orange is the new black." i would like you to contrast these two shows. one has a very diverse cast, a lot of female directors, and the other is often male protagonists with a woman often caught between them. pickedou certainly have
one of the differences between the shows. i have to say there were more similarities than differences. both of those shows really welcomed me with open arms. "orange" was my first series, and i would say "aliens" is my television family, which is "billions" would say is my television family, which allowed me to ultimately take the work very seriously and take our jobs very seriously. scarlet: final question. what is your ideal role? my gosh. i believe strongly in the power of manifestation. i think i will keep those cards close to my chest. n, thank asia hate dillo you, actor on "billions." in the region,0%
julia: it is time now for the a lookrg business flash, at some of the biggest stories. shaking up the drug making business, agreeing to buy a company for 62 billion dollars andash and stock, takeda, they are a top player in the rarement for -- of diseases. and some are finding difficulty filling prescriptions for the epipen. said they were experiencing supply challenges because of manufacturing delays.
mylan shares are also trending lower. they report sales tomorrow. and a deep dive into credit card lending, a piece of the billions in fees and interest tied to products, goldman is weighing the move it plans to use the online lender, and wells fargo people.k at targeting the average household maintaining credit card debt pays $900 in interest each year. and a hong kong giant is expected to have a debut, expected to be the largest in the region since 2014. they will value the company between $50 billion and $100 billion. mi billionaire is already on the list. ofre is a market valuation $100 billion, pushing five into
the world highest bracket. and that is your bloomberg business flash. what'd you miss? deutsche bank is considering a sweeping restructuring in the united states, and it could be cutting 20% of its staff year, and shares are down in trading. joining us is our guest. great to have you back with us to talk about what we are expecting for deutsche bank. we knew they were retrenching. >> we had 10% before, and now they are saying it could be as much as 20%. we knew that deutsche bank is moving to a smaller office in ,anhattan, a 30% less footprint and they are also closing their houston office, as well. they want to stick with businesses that can give them a standard in europe, as well.
we are still waiting to see where else they are going to cut . in the memo that was sent to staff about the energy business, for example, they said for investment banking. talent.ighly paid m&a m&a talent.ly paid this is all under the new ceo. is he seen progress, and where does he think the bank is wasting resources? onali: 20% is not everything. there will still be a significant foot print here, but it will be smaller. what we do not know is how the cuts will affect the rest of the businesses. strong, keep it compared to equities. that is really where are a lot of the trouble lies and where they are making a lot of the cuts. -- orn a year from now
even six months from now -- they are also balance sheet intensive come which has also been a problem here. you have kind of touched on it intensive,sheet which has also been a problem here. you kind of touched on it, that 20% of the staff will be cut. we see very deep cuts to cash equities, for example. we have also said the prime brokerage business and the repo business will see cuts. the person who ran it for a while, prime brokerage, is stepping down. he dealt with a lot of hedge funds and kept a lot of the hedge fund clients for the last couple of years, also stepping down. with somebody stepping down, a replacement, so we will see. julia: a relationship manager. talked us through.
put this into context. put thiss through, into context. deutsche bank had to kind of reconsider the whole environment and not retrench but just reorganize and come to some decisions. how many people does deutsche bank have overall? how many people are in the u.s.? about 10% of their global workforce. i am glad you brought this up. in 2011, they were the number one prime brokerage in the u.s., and in just seven years, how far we have come, and the interesting thing is there are so many european competitors in the u.s. scarlet: yes, the former deutsche bank group is huge in the united states. all right, thank you so much, k, with the scoop that deutsche bank is considering cutting one out of five staffers in the u.s.
[closing bell] the closing bell and the iranian nuclear deal. i am julia chatterley. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i am joe weisenthal in san francisco, and if you are tuning in live on twitter, i went to welcome you to our coverage every day. -- i want to welcome you to our coverage every day. stock market little changed, slipping after donald trump decided to scrap a nuclear iran, causing concern about tensions, and you can see is off -- actually, it is up a little, and the s&p little changed, and the nasdaq -- basically all three of them little changed, julia. yes, and it was so well
telegraphed ahead of the event, and equities, stocks very much in focus. scarlet: stocks did rally on the announcement, but we are also looking at a couple of individual names, comcast among them. they are lining up a run at 21st century fox, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. the move would counter the tooky revia's bid, which the form of an all stock effort, previousr the disney bid, which took the form of an all stock effort. anythey said not to expect and the partnerships, long-term strategy and what it is, and deutsche bank, sonali was telling us how the bank is looking at cutting down its staff in the united states by 20%, and that is a steeper retrenchment than what had been reported earlier, which was about one in 10. it looks like it will be one in 10 staffers.
joe? the day,ds higher on bonds, not a ton of movement, and the 10-year is hovering a little bit below the 3% mark, getting closer up to 2.97. i want to look at a long-term chart thomas stepping away from the united states, of an argentinian item. they were announcing they were going to market with a 100-year bond, and, you know, that sort of signified that it would take up a lot of excitement and exuberance towards argentina, and we know in recent days, we have seen argentine assets gets imf, in talks now with the and it has been tumbling, so the very long-term, risky assets taking it on the chin with concerns about argentina and its
currency. now, i want to turn to commodities, kind of at the center of the action today within news today on the iran decision, oil falling, so perhaps reaction. nymex is up 1.4%, old futures -- gold futures, a sort of modest move. look at oil,ay there were conflicting headlines. there was the initial report would stay inmp or partially stay in. then, there was a rejection of the report and then a report that the other report was wrong, the you have seen these really then you have seen these really spiky moves. so forile three hours or oil traders trying to anticipate what was going to happen, and then our bloomberg strategist filed this. oil volatility, and this is sort
of a good thing, like the bix -- falling, and sort of the extent that all of this was priced in, moving some of the implied relatively to out of oil, and you could see it at the time of the announcement. -- moving some of the implied volatility out of oil. julia: the dollar maintaining its advance, the focus clearly on weakness that we saw in commodity related currencies. norway, canada. and it is about the broader weakness that we saw in oil and oil related commodities, as well. i want to give you a look once again on a daily basis of what is going on for some currencies. smattering of green, as you can see, performance relative to the u.s. dollar, weakness overall is the story, and at the bottom of my
screen, i will make it slightly peso., the argentinian macri announcing that they are engaged with the imf peso. on a credit line, something they have been discussing over the last several days, hiking interest rates, not the only interest -- issue for these guys. we have fiscal second-quarter results of disney, adjusted at $1.84, higher than even the analysts' estimates. $1.ysts were looking up to 76. billion, analyst looking 13 billion. and the operator profit, analysts were looking for an estimate of $1.65 billion, so it
looks like we can compare the adjusted earnings against the estimate, and you are seeing investors bidding the stock higher by 1.7%. let's bring in mediatech's po bibb and another guest. water, what i find interesting with disney -- porter, what i find interesting with disney, when you look at the stock performance, it has not gotten a lot of love, because disney is down, versus the s&p 500. porter: investors do not get it at all. twowater, what i find interestg with steps backward, and they should be blowing the doors off of the country -- company based on this earnings report. the movie business right now, they have broken just about every record that the box office
holds. beuary, they are going to launching disney streaming, competitor of netflix and amazon prime. they have got theme parks -- going likerazy crazy, and they have got "star wars" coming out. porter, doesn't have to be something for investors to see of the company, or are you happy -- does there have to be something for investors to see in the company, or are you happy that this will lift it up? p/e, it is ais steal and they are much more than a media company, and they they arent-based, and getting more and more content-based, and no one else is able to do that. julia: the action that they seem
to be getting, they are getting traction as far as their actions are concerned, but m&a remains one of the questions with what we see with fox assets. >> yes, number one, m&a. are they going to find themselves in a bidding war? then the second issue is just more operational. their core media businesses, the cable businesses, which have been the driving value, clearly challenged by the court cutting cord cuttingthe issue, so investors, the traditional, over-the-counter, direct to consumer products -- they have been slow. espn, it did not get going fast enough, but it's still got traction and will start to move. -- it still got traction and will start to move.
scarlet: i am glad you brought up espn. there weren't decreases at espn and free-form. -- there wereed decreases at espn and freeform. paul: i think it is critical for the assets. they have to work. it is a less major operational move that bob iger will make, and this is one of the reasons they are making the bid for fox, to get more content to take directly to the consumer, so it espn, and maybe something from users, some of the feedback they are getting from users, and what kind of effort are they going to put into espn plus?
scarlet: disney said the decrease was partially offset by higher advertising revenue. julia: what we were talking about as far as this deal was scarlet:concerned and the acquif content above all things, we have heard that comcast is arranging financing to try to put forward their bid. exactly. porter: disney wants sky. rupert murdoch. now, comcast wants sky too. thancan afford to pay more comcast, but they need a international footprint. on espn, part of the reason the prophets were not that strong was not just the revenue side -- the reason the not that strong was not just the revenue side. also a revenue of concern and
other aspects of media, all of the money netflix is spending to buy show runners. does this worry you, the spend side? for disney. four other players, absolutely. other players, absolutely. disney has no shortage of content. they would even benefit more if they can and have getting the fox assets, as well. scarlet: and the increased resources will flow in. increasing 13rts percent, operating income increasing 27%. disney is hitting this consistently with this part of the business. l: this is a part of the business that does not get a lot of interest from wall street. there is consistent double-digit income. does take a lot of capital,
but the returns on capital have been very, very strong. the most recent would be shanghai. they got 11 million visitors in the first year. now, we see the comcast universal business, they are now doubling their investment upcoming in beijing. that really validates, i think, the investment that disney made years ago. disney was first to china, and will continue to be a very good investment for them. there is still a tremendous a lot of growth in china. all most the day after they announced more expansion in shanghai, so they continue to invest in their parks both in florida and california, as well. even paris has turned around after 15 or 20 years of underperformance, and it is not just disney. we have seen good results out of comcast and some of the independent players, so it is one of the experiences of the millennial crowd, theme parks. and the merchandising,
word. havedent trump: today, we proof that this iranian promise was a lie. last week, they published intelligence documents long , conclusivelyran showing the iranian regime and its history of pursuing nuclear weapons. the president says he will impose what he calls the highest , includingn iran reinstating financial sanctions. the iranian president says he will send his foreign minister to negotiate with countries remaining in the nuclear deal. that president warned that he would restart enriching uranium in the next weeks. and the european union foreign-policy chief also ,eighed in on the u.s. decision looking to protect the eu's economic interests with iran. --this is a common nation
culmination of 12 years. it belongs to the international community. to make sure that iran does not develop nuclear weapons. the european union is determined to preserve it. say it is crucial to the security of europe and the entire world. former president barack obama says president trump is "misguided." says president trump's is " misguided." global news 24 hours a day, also on twitter, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. scarlet: we have some breaking news on facebook, a couple of different headlines on different things. personalrt with some
things. a man has been named to the economic council, currently the ceo of a group, added to the board of directors at facebook, they spoke also making some changes to its committees. the former ceo of american express is involved. will remainreessen on a committee but is leaving the compensation and governance committee. julie, there is also information on how facebook is going to take privacy more seriously. yes, one directorate who has been at the company for eight years, he has been working to comply with european rules. taking over aly new privacy product team that would include around 300 engineers and other product people, as well. it clears history, apparently, last weekok announced
they will allow users to opt out facebook elect and match their -- collect and match their off facebook facebook eled match activity. this is more central to the operations of facebook. scarlet: in addition, facebook will be reorganizing into three different divisions. the technology group will be run by david. we will keep you posted on any further headlines. now, coming up, disney could it to a contest with comcast. more on the assets of 21st century fox. this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: what'd you miss? better thanting estimated second-quarter earnings, which is good because they could be in a bidding war with comcast for 21st century fox. david is standing by with more. david? david: wethey could be in a bidr with comcast for 21st century fox. are glad to have the chairman and ceo with us, bob iger. goodyou had a really earnings call, as we just said. beatat expectations -- you expectations, and the comparisons year over year were dramatic. yes, and parks and resorts, and not only do we feel great about that, we feel great about our momentum. david: what is the highlight for you? highlight is seeing how
people are reacting to the stories we are telling, the intellectual property. obviously, " lack panther" -- " black panther." excellence,achieved and this works around the world. excellence, and this works around the world. obviously, "black panther." seeing how our businesses are taking advantage of the leveraging of the intellectual property is certainly heartwarming. david: so you have got great assets as a company and are doing well. assets, ande more you have said you wanted to buy fox assets.tury tell me. is that a necessary acquisition for disney, or is that nice? than just it is more nice, but i am not sure i would put in the category of
absolutely necessary in the context that this company has great assets already and is thriving and has great opportunity, even in a media landscape or media world that is transforming itself right before our eyes. that said, we believe in increasing our intellectual property profile as a company. we believe in increasing the technology that we have as a company that enables us to reach more people are more compelling ways, and we believe in diversify more geographically, and those fox assets achieve all three things, so when you look at the combination of the two, meaning the 21st century fox assets that we are buying and the disney assets that we already have and what we are seeing in the landscape, we think there is a very, very compelling proposition for the shareholders of both the disney company and of 21st century fox, which is why the 21st century fox board gave the deal we made unanimous approval. it willou are confident
ultimately go forward. as i said, you have a deal in place that was ratified by the board. at the same time, you need shareholder approval and regulatory approval, and others have expressed interest, in the form of comcast, your arrival. to the assets worth more disney company than they are to comcast? -- are those assets worth more to disney than they are to comcast? i do not want to speculate as to what they are doing, because there were no announcements made. i know they are great for disney, and the currency we are using, the disney stock, it is very attractive to shareholders, and shareholders of both disney, who will vote on it, and fox, we believe they will look at it quite favorably. ford: you are heralded none so big as this one that you are talking about, and as i know, none of those deals, pixar, lucas, in veiled --
involve someone else. comcast coming in. worked for tom murphy, and used to say that the last 10% of the price was we go. -- was ego. what about that last 10% being ego? too earlynk it is way that this will result in an auction, and i would just leave it at that. i went to go back to a couple of things. if you are shareholders of a it at that. i went to go back to a couple of things. if you are shareholders of a company -- i want to go back to a couple of things. if you are shareholders of a company that is being bought, which is 21st century fox, what is the path of regulatory approval? will regulators around the world, because around the world is important, is this a deal they will approve?
and we are quite confident we will gain that approval, and i think if you look at that versus another offer, whatever that is, in terms of money or in terms of its source, you have to hold that up against our offer, not come again, with our value but the real possibility of it happening, and we believe we are offering shareholders in both outstandingly positive or attractive proposition. david: all right, bob, i have to let you go, but are you still having fun on the entertainment programs? running the walt disney company, even in a world that has got more challenging, is one of the greatest experiences anyone can have. i love what i do and one of -- and the people i work with. and nothing is better than waking up the morning after a big movie, whether it is "lack panther" or "infinity war," -- "black panther" or "infinity war," it is great.
mark: even will work on says the decision to leave the iran theear deal, tweaking nonproliferation regime is at stake, president trump says secretary of state mike pompeo was thought to north korea ahead of the president's plan meeting with kim jong-un and it will be pompeo's second visit to the country. mr. trump of you last mike pompeo also met with kim over the easter weekend all-time payout was still cia director. trump says the date and time of the meeting with kim have been
agreed to but he has yet to reveal where or when it will occur. the president broke the news while announcing plans to withdraw from the iran nuclear accord. former fbi director james camesa as he is shocked and disappointed and disgusted with the republican attacks on special counsel robert mueller's russian investigation. comey says the criticism is an attack on the entire institution of justice. combing was fired by president trump a year ago and said he no longer considers himself a member of the republican party. leaders sounded the alarm over today's west virginia senate primary and worried about a late surge by former pope executive on blanket ship was served prison time and charged racially charged attacks against mitch mcconnell's wife. president trump tweeted he cannot win the general election against the incumbent kind -- incumbent democratic
senator. global news, 24 hours a day, on the air, and at tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. julia: let's give you a recap of today's market action. ending the day relatively unchanged after wild moves triggered by president's announcement that the united states is withdrawing from the 2015 iran nuclear agreement. we saw the s&p 500 spike on the announcement and came back down, we also set energy stocks erasing losses becoming one of the biggest gainers as a proportion of the overall market like the underlying oil prices we saw, precipitating some form of catch-up. belies the step shot volatility we saw throughout the session. theident trump announced
u.s. will withdraw from the iran applyr accord and will sanctions against the regime and is a brick from the policy of the obama administration has sparked immediate reactions from leaders around the world and on capitol hill. member of the senate committee on foreign relations joins us now, but to have you with us on the show. is this a strategic mistake by president trump? sen. cardin: it is a policy mistake and what he has that is isolate america. should be isolating iran. what he has done is give iran a free pass to deal with nonnuclear activities and will be more difficult to get support of europe and united's part terrorism and ballistic violations. it is a policy mistake. joe: you have been critical of andiran deal in the past,
you say you don't support withdrawing from it and you supported strengthening it. what specifically would a stronger deal look like and what should if there's going to be a new negotiation? sen. cardin: president macron talk about that when you was here, and that is built on this agreement. it is unclear what happens after the limitations on nuclear enrichment. we need to clarify that point moving forward that iraq never can become a nuclear weapons state, there are plateaus they could never achieve. that is the clarification we need to do. secondly we need to make it clear to iran that percent terrorism they do now, there's going to be additional sanctions imposed. imposed a section that was abused. i wouldn't recommend pulling
away from it. expect thedo you iranians to respond and the europeans and the countries that remain in the deal to respond? sen. cardin: i have seen the response from the germans and they basicallys, said let's stay calm and stay in the agreement. want to make sure iran does not violate its nuclear provisions and get that sanctions and relief that it is entitled. the europeans are going to continue to encourage iran and other players to stay in the nuclear agreement. how iran response, i don't think we know. initially they are going to be strong in saying the united states is the violator and i expect them to take the international institutions that are available to hear their grievances. i think it will try to isolate america. continuemake sure we to focus on iran's activities
and make sure they never become a nuclear weapons eight and make sure we deal with their other activities. joe: you have said earlier that withdrawal of the u.s. from this agreement with isolated united states. this is a charge levied against this administration. the number of agreements and general idea that the u.s. is increasingly going it alone, whether it is climate or trade or various other things. what are the practical ramifications in your view down the road from this isolation on various fronts? america is stronger when we work with our partners and have unity in the global community. the u.s. is being isolated. the trump policy of america first is america alone, and we are not going to be as effective dealing with world problems. change or is climate preventing a country from becoming a nuclear weapons state like iran.
we are going to be less effective when work by ourselves. made ashe decision is far as the president is concerned. how does he now ensure that a better and improved deal is ultimately signed? what leverage can be pressed upon and used your as far as the iranians is concerned? the president alluded, is it extreme sanctions that can exist in a trading relationship with the chinese, russians, europeans? it seems the president and the u.s. can create the u.s. can create a situation where iran has zero choice. sen. cardin: is going to be very difficult. we knew when we first past the sanctions would only become effective if we had the support of our allies, particularly the europeans. we need the support of the asians in order to really isolate iran. we have seen the statements of the europeans that they intend
to honor the nuclear agreement, so they intend to continue their sanction relief and economic relations with iran. it going to be very difficult put pressure on iran when we have isolated ourselves from our european partners. far as the yes a ministration relationship with north korea is concerned, clearly it is early, but the president alluded in his press conference and we saw the same kind of destabilizing behavior and aggressive behavior towards north korea. it look at the situation, seems on the surface it is improving. why can't we have a familiar situation with the iranians? i think you are dealing with different circumstances. in iraq we have specters on the ground and we know iraq was complying with limitations -- iran was complying with limitations.
the agreement was working from the point of view of how it was intended to work. in north korea we don't have inspectors on the ground and we don't know the extent of the nuclear program and tapioca merits as to what they're going no meritshe future -- as to what they're going to do in the future, there is no military option is acceptable in north korea so we have to find a diplomatic answer. julia: thank you for your insight. democratic member of the senate foreign relations committee. by steven englander is saying don't waste the dollars privilege and who talk to the head of strategy at 50 capital next. this is new york and this is bloomberg. i got it right this time. ♪
julia: the rest is at the service level of 2018 and what it means for more, we are joined by stephen engle iander. both calls, and that is end of the second quarter, what is your take on short-term dollar bullishness we are seeing? steven: there is nothing to stop the dollar from going up and i think what we are seeing is the fed constantly reiterating its bullishness on the economy and bullishness on rate hikes. the data of europe is soft and they think the market -- i think the underlying european economy is a soft as they think it is. for now what we are seeing is the market beginning to set aside the geopolitical issues
constantly haunted the dollar last year the first couple of months of this year. for once we are focusing on what the fed is doing and what the economy is doing. joe: as he said, there's nothing to indicate the fed is going to slow down or reduce its estimates of the economy. we keep getting disappointed on the datation front, last week was fine but nothing special. what do you make of the data we see lately and does there come a point or inflation doesn't really gather steam that we could see a rethink on the part of the fed? steven: i think the wage data last month was done by ace couple of special factors. there are three good things happening in the economy, the fact we are seeing so many minority workers hired is
tremendous, socially and economically. $.75 on the dollar relative to the average that they are holding down the pace of wage inflation because the hiring we are seeing is at the low end of the wage gap and not the high-end. about the market reaction we saw in light of the last fed meeting because we saw a shift as far as the growth outlook is concerned in the might of investors. edition of this symmetric word, at this point in the cycle, how since this should they be as far as inflation is concerned, considering the risk of the downside in this point of the cycle? steven: i think they are paying too much attention to inflation and the fed is sending a signal that they are going to be tolerant of higher inflation. there is a case that says, if you actually think there are
factors and the age of the -- everybody has bought cars and we have eight years to buy capital equipment, the odds are we have enough of that stuff. if you think a downturn is ofing, the fed has 1% disinflation in its pocket. julia: you have to let it overshoot. steven: you can ask the question if we have a downturn tomorrow, where would inflation and up? we would be back at 1.3 or 1.5 before we know it. the fed nieces buffer if they actually want to average 2% over the cycle. joe: you make an interesting point in a note in the last fed decision. under thepeople are mistaken impression the fed has a next her crystal ball about the economy or they have more data than everyone else has so they know more.
can you explain that analytical errors people make? of the forecast is based on the same economic data we have. the new yorkeen fed forecaster a long time ago, i can tell you i was not much better than anybody in the markets. is allot like there these fed economists and they have a multiple of the data that the economy has come at they have the same data everyone else does and they are similar models to what the major houses use. there's not much more information and what they are saying, if you can look at the metric models and technical models that they use to take all the quarterlyata, and monthly numbers and weekly numbers and come up with a forecast.
the forecast can diverge fight 1.5 percentage points, so it is hard to forecast the economy, at that if you add another dozen economists using the same data and get a better forecast. joe: big picture, do you in the domestic economy right now that concerns you about slowdown or in terms of the steady-state we are in, is it going to continue? steven: i think the market was too pessimistic over the winter. i think now we are unwinding that pessimism. i would say the biggest risk to is if it turns out the economy is slowing down and we come to a business cycle and is a lot of inflation that the fed has to tighten rapidly, or because the economy is falling apart. i think the market would look beyond the short-term indications and say, well,
similar to a fed that is easing. the one question you want to ask yourself before you buy yourself dollars is if the business cycle is going to an income soon. if you think the business cycle can continue that you should be a dollar buyer because it means the forces that powell keeps talking about, the tightening and interest rates, will favor the u.s.. pointsalso make great about the dollar and trade and the dollar selling off and still like yes assets. a great tease for what will discuss. steven englander is sticking with us. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: steven englander at rafiki capital, you mentioned initial international system reacts in funny ways in the couldn't agree more as far as the behavior of the rest dollars concern and the impact it has come up whether it is for earnings or exports. how tight is it and how good is it that the weak dollar is a boost for u.s. exports? if you talk about volume, in the short-term it is a weak tool and the dollar has to be week for a number of years before it has a discernible impact. what it does do immediately is due earnings because of translation effects, but it doesn't create jobs, it makes shareholders happy. it is something, but i don't think it is a strong tool as advertised. julia: if you talk about a soft
eakness,ollar or w ,here to come up trade policy how relevant is it at current levels and what we need to see in order for it to boost? to go a mile, as the going there quickly, and has to stay there. will see the difference in two or three years down the road. isargue that all it takes from 120 two 125 comment would be ridiculous and one ca a second decimal point in gdp growth. to otherhat apply major currencies, i think about the euro and a strong euro earlier contributed to some of the modest economic decelerations, by doesn't it sound like that would fit the story you tell about major currencies.
steven: i think it applies to the euro to a greater degree because the euro is somewhat a more open economy and the eurozone is more open than the u.s. by and large it is the same. if you look at the elde airplanes they sell and the benefit show up in production, it takes a long time. it is something that is visible. if you are a worker it sounds good since you are more competitive, but the translation of competitiveness to boots in factories is way less than conventionally thought. joe: how concerned should people be about increasing stories about pressure rising in emerging markets, whether it is argentina, the turkish lira hitting a record low, is something bubbling in emerging markets that is bigger in macro
stories thatolated are distinct and localized? are weakight now these hands in the em getting hurt, which is kind of the good news that it doesn't seem to be across the board in any degree of intensity. i think the bad news is that it is happening at such a low level powell and the fed have signaled there is more to go. because he more pressure down the road and i think this is the late stage of the business cycle is when you want to see a weaker dollar. issue at it as a global at what you don't want to see is a higher rate translating into pressure on indebted countries that have week positions -- weak positions. ifcould get further bad news
the dollar continues to strengthen. that said, the business cycle extends, equities are underpriced and not overpriced. that improvement in equity sentiment what spill over into other high data assets. right now we are in a situation where the market is not convinced about equities. they see rates going up and see the vulnerabilities and they are selling as much as they can. julia: if you are right in your underlying thesis as far as the business cycle and the economy, that you ultimately presents an opportunity, and so this equities too. don't have good supply site data and we don't know if productivity is picking up or investment is picking up and have a discernible impact, if it does to a extended cycle,
us equities and the snapshot showing you unchanged overall on the day after u.s. president announced the united states will be exiting from the iranian clear deal. that was this, 20th century fox reporting earnings after the bell. for elected economic data this are price index numbers for the u.s. commodities at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. julia: that is all for what you miss. is next. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪ mr. elliot, what's your wifi password?
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♪ emily: this is bloomberg technology bring you all the top stories in the tech world wide. coming up, the ceo of social capital joins us for an extended conversation on the biggest issues facing tech and vc's right now, relation, diversity, and facebook. . more than 50 million i was in the last quarter, but is it enough to keep the man in the global smartphone market? respected gene munster,