tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 16, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
just past 8:00 a.m. i'm haidi lun. >> and it's just after 6:00 p.m. here in new york. i'm betty liu. we're going to be look how all the action is going to play in the the asia pacific trading day. and haidi, it was a day of advances here in the u.s. we saw another advance at that 3.1% level. let's take a quick look at how the stocks ended trade today. green across the board. some good earnings from some of the consumer stocks like macy's. the dow up about 63 points. the nasdaq gaining some steam to set up asia for a higher open. haidi: yeah, what a difference a day makes. we went from good news to being bad news. to good news being good news. it's amazing how the narrative shifts within hours. take a look at the setup.
we had stocks staging a recovery in the overnight session. emerging market asx coming ush pressure. the aussie recovering from that slump on the back that we gained. sidney futures a bit of poverty going into the open. 6. aussie dollar at we're seeing decline in gold. new york crude holding at 71.5. the brent falling the most in more than a week. although, we do have morgan stanley saying some new shipping rules will create greater demand for oil leading to $90 a barrel by 2020. and we see a little bit of a pickup when it comes to the broader bloomberg comentity. let's go to courtney collins. courtney: president james
bullard his poll sill mackers have no business planning strategy week in advance because they don't know how it could change. speaking exclusively to bloomberg he said the predicted three or four rate hikes could put downward pressure on inflation. bullard wants the fed to change its course. >> the whole idea that you're naming the number of rate hikes way out in the future when you don't know what the data is going to be is something we should get out of the business of doing. >> a delegation from north korea has met chinese president as speculation that the trump-kim ummit could be canceled. trump and kim may meet in singapore on june 12th. and the administration says it's going ahead with preparations as normal. >> malaysian police have raided
the home of their former prime minister as the new government reopens the investigation into billions of dollars missing from the one mdb fund. the scale of the fraud is bigger than initially thought. they are speaking to other to recover the money diverted from 1mdb. >> this was laundered in measure. since there was no admission that the money is from malaysia there was no claim on it. now we say the money is from 1 mdb. and we appeal for it to be returned to malaysia. >> imposing sweeping new sanctions on the leader of hezbollah. e u.s. is with three other gulf nations accusing him of del stabilizing the region.
hezbollah has clashed with israel and entered the war on syria on the side of president bashar al-assad. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney collins. this is bloomberg. >> courtney, thank you so much. we'll take a look at the u.s. market close after positive economic data helped push some stocks. on the earnings front, record profits easing the concern about ing. ontinued spend >> we had housing up. that was a shot in the arm for the market. those very strong resultings from macy's. let's go into the snapshot of the market. zero in if you will on the
treasuries, of course, treasuries getting slammed. the yield back above 3%. it's raising the question as whether the fed will be forced to accelerate rate hikes. oil late ined around 71. gold reversed in advance. gold is lower than extended trading. let's go to macy's heading the list. wowing in the first quarter showing that their turnaround by offering discounts hitting the road to also showing strong sales from international shoppers who come into new york in front of the tourist district, at least their flagship score taking a rise. jack torsi says he's all in on bit coin as the wave of the future. we also had a lot of positive for micron and underarmour which had been under pressurizing for the strong rulingts for the
apparel company. that big question on u.s. rates, are they too high. tv is where you can find these charts. this one says, we're right here at the mark where a lot of analysts an are raising concerns. it's the highest level for this bloomberg barclays bond index. -- he concern is that kit it can sap it. the boosted confidence in the u.s. company. how did stocks react to all this? >> it's real interesting because we saw housing stocks at a four-month slide going into this. what's real interesting, home building confidence is not at the highest. multi-family housing permits in the south where the highest in almost 13 years. and this is almost counter intuitive because we're seeing
robust demand into a rise of interest rates. home builders, the stocks themselves and also the most sensitive to higher costs, again, they had been in a four-month slide. what we see is a bit of a balance on this latest session on this strong data. but there's a lot of cross-current for that housing. ey were a late cycle in home building. >> the record profit seems to offset some of the concerns about spending. what's the story? >> yeah that they came in strong. 61% increase in net income. if you look at the wednesday session, which is on the right-hand side. boom! that really saw a strong reaction in the stock. if you look at the bigger picture, year to date there had been a huge selloff in the stock. i'm concerned that their
aggressive spending was going to jump into margins. that was the expectations. they came in better than 50%. real quickly we go into bloomberg one more time. 10 cent turn around. ou can come into 2017. and their strong game sales and platform for large growth there also playing a role in this very strong report. >> thank you so much for that. well, let's get back to geo politics. the u.s. planned summit with north korea, pyongyang is threatening to torpedo these talks. president trump hasn't raised any anything. we'll have to see. joe, you know, did we get any
clarity? history could tell us that this could yet prove to be di appointment again. >> yes, indeefment this has been a technique that north korea has sed through several u.s. presidential administrations. from the u.s. side. they say though, plan to be there and ready to talk. and if that doesn't happen, so be it. white house press secretary sara sanders said that if the talks don't come through and the u.s. will continue its campaign of maximum pressure economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation and continued leaning on china to cut north korea off. >> but there han be no indication from the north creanl end that there really are pulling out or whether this is simply a warning shot to -- to set out there their negotiating
position? >> yeah, just some gamesmanship help spread. in terms of this trade talk, wind that he is going to be in a meeting. >> well, he is already here talking with members of congress. there blem is that doesn't seem to be in progress in the talks so far. president trump doesn't know what china is asking for. though, the u.s. has made it clear they want to cut the trade deficit goods by something 200 billion over the next two years. the vice premier met with some senior members of congress. today, he gave not much indication of where china was going according to the lawmakers. -- came out ch the
of the meetings pess mystic that he thought the u.s. would pose it there. although, hatch does not support using terrorists as a tool. but he thought there was not going to be much in the way or give or take from china or the u.s. on some of these demands. >> how significant that president's trump's tom trade advise or seems to be sidelined joe. > joe: navarro is probably the hardest on the hard liners on china in the trump indications. he had run into a dispute with treasury secretary mnuchin a couple of weeks ago that didn't bare any fruit. as of what we're told, he will not be a part of the talks with the chinese vice premier who is meeting with manu shan, the u.s.
trade representative. officials from the conference department as well as i said u.s. lawmakers wile he's here. maybe that clears the way for a give and take from the u.s. side. but there is still some decent and struggle over the white house over the right approach to china. >> all right. joe. our bloomberg congress editor. much more ahead on "daybreak." we're going to break down 10-cent record profit. and also the 1 billion user mark or the first time. >> who is running with the bulls this time despite volatility? this is "bloomberg."
york. haidi: and i'm haidi lun. jim bullard is an outliar when it comes to fmmc officials. he's been trying to pushback against the view that the u.s. economy is at risk of overheating and it requires rate hikes. kathleen should stop giving forward guidance. >> the whole idea that you're naming the number of rate hikes way out in the future when you don't know what the data is going to be is something we should get out of the business of doing. >> you mean the dot points? >> i don't think when you're at zero and you're giving forward guidance. but we're not at zero. we never gave forward guidance where you're well off zero. it's not clear where rates are going to go in the future. so i think piling up these rate hikes over the next two years or
three years or something like that is some kind of inevitability. i don't think we should be doing that. we should be more greenspanian in the policy. we think we have trait about where we need today. we're going to react to what happens in the future. that's we would like to do this, i think. >> john williams, incoming fed. one of the things i found interesting he said was forward guidance. i guess we should end the market hand holding. do you agree with that. >> monetarily policy remains accommodative. and i think we use that same language when we're at zero. and now we're way off zero. we're still using the same language. it's become data. we have to modify that in some sense. i would like to say, you know, we're at neutral. but whether i can convince my
colleagues to say that. but i don't know. i do think we -- we should reform that and think about the dot plot as well. betty: that was jim bullard speaking to kathleen hague. let's talk more about what he just mentioned. interest rates. i want to get perspectives from olly ver. what did you make of his comments? >> number one, he's much smarter nan me. so i'm not going to dice agree with him. >> forward guidance has helped calm markets. it has helped eliminate volatility. we went through very low volumityity to markets. irany you need to make a distinction between being transparent and clear. nay haven't niesely always been clear. i don't see that becoming any better o going forward. >> why not?
>> because if you feed the fed statements and we all do. we expect to do this unless happens. that's not exactly clear. you know, in itself that forward guidance that transparency acts almost as a rate hike in itself. it puts the notion out there that we're going to act and do something in the future and given that blarkts and investors are forward thinking mechanisms. that tends to elicit an action without being an action to the fed. >> >> it has been. but hearing his commentings which he's kind of reiterated it a bit. it sounds like he's leaning more towards, you know, a little bit more doveishness than what we heard to ore said officials. as an investor and strategist. what do you think that leave by the end of the year then? >> we think they're going to be
slightly higher. but certainly less than 5%. indices.of broad you're going to see a difference between individual stopper form mans. a you've certainly seen this far already. >> i think it's going to come down to several factors relating to the economy. obviously geo paul takes an overhal hang on everybody. how much are the oil price going to impact consumer behavior. >> and input calls and what does that mean. fourth quarter and first quarter of next year. and whether or not that starts impacting investor playoff or. >> i suppose on the other side when it comes to the oil story, what about the positive impact on inflation? do you see that carrying through particularly with the past through with the rest of the commodity story. it extends the late-stage of the
cycle that we're in. >> two yearsing a. but today you have an interesting dynamic with most of our clients being in the united states. the u.s. is also is a very large oil producer. so the higher oil prices kind of offset the inflationary come potent. >> do me on a broad based g.d.p. basis, that's probably neutral. you by kind of look at it as we look atta riffs. they inflationary and deflationary. >> trefts. so that has a negative effect. . because they tend to eat part of those tariffs and that squeezes their profits. that doesn't help come assumers necessarily. but if you're an oiler driller then certainly that helps you. >> yeah, great deal of
uncertainty. >> i want to throw out this uick chart in our live room. we're talking about -- it was a repeat of what we saw in february. the move volatility index for bonds jumping the most. are we going to see this correlation between bond market volume activity. so i think to question -- to answer your first question, yes, i think the correlation assist between the volatility. i'm not ready to say there's about three 3%. at the owned the depay, you know, 3% is an important psychological number but from a consumer perspective and some of the damaging. and you know, 3.1%. 3.2%.
2.95%. i'm not sure that makes a huge difference in terms of overall behavior. there are a lot of factors. >> interest. it's final little starting to happen. i wouldn't be surprised if you saw three.4, 3.5% tenure within the next 12 "mlb tonight"s. and deposit pending on what inflation and g.d.p. growth look like. it could be appropriate and both good. >> g.d.p. growth is much stronger today than it was three years ago. you have to look at it in context when you leuer looking at interest rates. >> how do -- >> go ahead, haidi. >> go, betty, go. tty: oliver on this 3.1% yeered. what r where do we go with the zoke do you think this could accelerate it which is at the end of the mark. or are are we not there yet.
>> i think it's the beginning. i don't think you're goifpk see the returns on. there's no question about that in many any mine. is it going to co continue to accelerate? >> probably. certainly if other quns remain -- questions remain the same. . it's not the death of the equity markets as a result. i think your going to see a sector rotation. certainly one of the impacts. and. and investor who are looking for yield. it gives investors more alternatives. that's the been story for 2 last decade or so because it's the only play that you found that they yield. er to the. that's been a long time coming for those who were waiting. >> we were calming for it in
2011 those bag of chips. very >> true. >> oliver purse. >> now from breaking news where ever you are, we've teemed up with twitter to launch tick tock. by bloomberg. it's the first one offering live video coverage and hourly updated news record. f you're on twitter, make sure you follow them. this is bloomberg.
>> it's 8:30 a.m. in sydney when markets open. looks like a lovely morning here in sidney. we're looking at a bit brighter as the markets came off those lows amid this renewed confidence. >> i'm beatty lieu. 6:30 p.m. you are watching "daybreak: australia." >> congressional leaders press the top economic advisor to hold unfair trading practices. lu hay met the senate counterpart in preparation for
discussions led by steven mnuchin. the talks ended without agreement. e.u. leaders are in bulgaria that will include rising trade tensions. the latest brexit developments deal.e iran it poses no security risk to the u.s. and is negotiating foreign exemption. the leaders also want to salvage the iran accord despite america pulling out. european shares hit near 15-week highs as the prospect of a populist italian government. leaders of the five-star movement and the anti-immigrant league are said to have agreed on 90% of a policy program. however, they have yet to say who will be prime minister and one italian newspaper reported
they may rotate the post. and the u.s. government ethics says president trump should have pornted a reimbursement to actress stormy daniels. he reimbursed cohen as much as $250,000 for unspecified expenses. he could be 234 violation of federal -- he could be in violation of federal epic laws. >> i'm courtney collins, this is bloomberg. >> let's gate quick update on how the markets are right now in new zealand the market is up and running. you can see falling off in the gains here in the u.s. up above 3.1%.
we've seen some dollar weakness. futures in australia are looking like this. also just a touch higher. the aussie dollar pretty much unchanged at this point. also a little lower as we're seeing that stronger kiwi. looking at the currency markets as you mentioned some o that dollar weakness flowing through to that yen strength, the sterling or pound, i should say also gaining ground here as we no -- no rate hike from last week's b.o.e. meeting. the treasurey yield at 3.1%. watch that as we hold that for the foreseeable time, haidi. we're watching them and how they affect market sentiment. haidi: it's quite interesting we're talking about that correlation between market volatility and banking volatility.
let >> we heard from john williams about dumping the forward guidance. does that make sense given we are in really an unprecedented situation right now? >> well, if you think about it. the fed is seeking policy normization. normalization in policy would be from where we take it month to month, data point to data point about the assessments of the economy rather than saying we at the fed are going to magically go get this point in a couple of years' time. i think in the longer term that could be extremely healthy. a lot of people have talked about markets being broken by what the fed has been doing both with the balance sheet and with the guidance in the shorter term that volatility you were talking about in the bond market, i think that's likely to pick up if they move to get rid of the infamous dot plot. >> yes, that infamous dot plot. were they were given the stark
warning on emerging markets a surprising negative view from emerging markets from carmen reinhart. what exactly did she say? >> well, she was really sounding the alarm bell in sing she thinks emerging markets are set up to be as -- to have a poor performance as they had in 2008. we've get a chart for you in the gtv library that shows just how dire that could end up being. if you look at what happened back in 2008, both currencies and equities in emerging markets totally fell off the cliff. if you think there's been a meltdown the past couple of weeks, you ain't seen nothing yet. her point is that after the crisis, a lot of emerging they s really, you -- derisk themselves. they got rid of some of the debt. in the year of easy money from
central banks, again, central banks, we got those emerging markets are able to load up again on debt and get themselves into the vulnerable situations that has places like argentina, indonesia, turkey in lots of trouble right now. have a short memory when it comes to that? >> it's human nature. you know, you feel the pain at first. and then you start to forget about it. and somebody, you know, puts some nice things in front of you. and you know, you can't help but -- yeah, and partake more than is healthy. haidi: it's a lesson learned. hank you so much for that. gothard reynolds. thank you for joining us. take a look at some of his charts that he was referencing.
pim co and alliance will go after country billions in pension savings. let's bring in ruth constance for this new adventure. they're looking to hire 50 people in sidney. >> they're going big into it. and so they are looking for the rolls ranging from compliance to technology and marketing and legal. some of the roles have been filled. and it's all about this big concerted push together into the post retirement market. today. >> what are they hoping to achieve? >> essentially they are hoping to get a slice of the very lucrative part of the pie. hey have $75 billion that go from the decumulation phase
every single year. and that high is going to grow to about $1.3 trillion in the next 50 years or so. so pim co and allianz is an underserved part of the market. and they're hoping to make a mark on it. >> the timing is interesting. with the scandal-ridden banking sector underway, is that why they're opening this new financial services now? >> yep, definitely. according to adrian stewart, the timing could not have been any better. so basically they're coming in with a clean slate. they don't have any financial advise businesses attached to it. it's going to be purely management business and expertised in a fixed income market. yes, definitely looking to make the mark. >> all right. ruth carson, rates reporter there. hands down with the first budget with a wider than expected
surprise. paul, that budget locked up and ends in about four hours. we already have some idea. some details on what to expect. what are they? >> that's right. as tradition would budget the details do tend to leek leake -- tend to leak out. they announced they will cancer the former government's tax cuts of $8.5 more than $5 billion for a family income's budget. nick capital spending going to increase to $42 billion over the next five years. their going to be targeting what a neglected o be intrastructure. much like we have the australia a couple of weeks ago, there's going to be an unexpected tax revenue. that will push the serve back. the government is walking in a tight rope politically when it
comes to the budget. >> always the case with coalition setups in new zealand. grant roberts would like to spend more on infrastructure. so many some respects he's got his own electric sort of apiece there. but oveks, also there,'s the main coalition part. peters.'re at winston a it will of irony. marked $a billion for affairs. so that's likely to create a little tension. >> governments involves in tend to get voted out after one term. very thank you so much. >> up next. how 10 cent is capitalizing on a new era of social e-commerce. this is bloomberg.
haidi: haidi lun in sidney. betty: so much for fierce. big spending waves would result on a big hit on margins. china defied those worries with record quarterly earnings. how are the estimates, how are they so far off, steve? steve: yeah, they did better than expected definitely. they had been signaling that they would be willing to sacrifice margins going forward for the favor of longer term growth in new areas like cloud computing, entertainment and even off-line retail. but again, the numbers really defied that. the stock though has been punished. vestors sold off more than90 billion since its january record high. instead, tencent exceed those
expectations actually quite astoundingly. 1% up in net income to $23.3 yuan. that beat estimates by almost 1/3. t did get a gain of almost 7.6 billion from its investments on video and news. even without that one-time gain, the results were pretty good. let me give you some of the highlights. gross profit margin in 2 first quarter -- in the first quarter was 57%. topping one billion monthly users. revenue rising 48% higher than expected. the lion share again coming from its online gaming an smartphone gaming. we have honor of kings is the a the core of profit. leading smartphone games to a rise in first quarter growth.
not out of the woods though. overall cost surged 51% and even poni ma said the chairman hoff the company said we will continue in improving our own products. i mentioned how much they sold off on these chairs. they were unchanged yesterday. could get a pop-up today. if you look at the south african company quh is the biggest share howleder in tencent. it had a big pop-up in johannesburg and in new york. up more than 5% respectively. > steve, stay with us. we're bringing in steven recter. you look at the kind of results, the margin is looking better. they're clearly getting better at controlling their cost. steve mentioned it was a one-time gain that made it more impressive. when you take into account that they were bullish on this stock, does this sort of result support
that poverty? >> yes, absolutely. i think the results from earnings this quarter were impressive. i see that the growth is going to continue on in 2018. one billion users on wichat shows the ecosystem where the chinese consume >> he be shopping in the future. >> time and time again, we come back to this title of being a growth of earnings. is that isky, though? >> is it risky or -- >> is it risky in terms of, you, no having too many eggs in one basket? >> no, i don't think so. i think that the focus -- they're very focused in terms of the online marketing. the gaming and obviously, the social media. i don't think there's a risk. i think be can continue to see ouble digit growth in revenue.
>> now, how is tencent going to better monetize those active users on it. the real things is in terms how -- wechat has become this shopping destination. >> for example, yesterday. givenchy is opening up another store. it is an important part of the shopping experience for the consumer. it's got to be part of the strategy. obviously, wechat you have to have a focus there as well. >> i lived in china for a long time. and i know wechat is this ecosystem of everything, of payments. you can make micro payments to people. it's an ecosystem wnl itself. very unlike the social messaging sites like what's up app who is stand alone.
so how is that business model for wechat does it translate abroad and do they need to go abroad? >> eventually, they have to grow internationally. it's a different type of concept that you asked in your are not used to. you're correct. when i'm on my mobile phone, i have a facebook app. i have a banking app. with wechat question do that all together in one app. it will be interesting to see how other people can evolve into trying a different type of social media applicationa. wechat in china is so multi-functional. can they replicate that in other markets? >> one of the things, when i was least in china, one of my favorite parts is because i didn't get a bank account. so if they could get
international banking on that app ve i believe it could be useful worlds wide. >> in the meantime, face book or anyone else in the payment space google, might they, you know, might they already be catching unor caught up by you know, wechat to be interest liesed. the one gse the -- but thing echat has is that system where instagram and facebook does not have. we will have to see. >> >> describe to me what you mean by social e-commerce? >> social e-commerce is to help drive the sales of merchandise. what's going on is this. that the chinese customer is using mobile as a point of making a purchase. and therefore what also is happening is that companies are
using customer service online. they are talking to other friends and people that are buying things. the chinese consumer wants to get validation for what they're purchasing. so that's twhire reaching out to other people. landscape, i'll get violations for their purchases. >> alibaba is going from clicks into brickses. do they need to keep pace? >> you know what, i think that each of the two companies are kind of going into different directions. but i think that's ok. you know, alibaba has the content where they are wriring dart store and to be part of their echo seasonal as well. there's plentoy of business to be had for both of them. and the strategies it would be ok. >> it feels like national lip
getting this model to be replicated successfully falls apart when you take at look at logistics and vainlt. because you don't have the level of service and convenience that you have in china. i suppose amazon being the exception given how vertically interested it is. but further, they start to fall apart. >> when you think about logistics, it depends on what the coon assumer in each of the regions is willing to accept in terms of length of delivery and that type of thing. so forever, it's ok for someone to set in days in order to get a pax adge. it just depends where you're at and what your expectations are but i don't really see that as an issue. >> steven, thank you so much for that. steven of time con soumenting there. you can catch up live and see our past interviews on our
betty: good morning i'm betty liu in new york. >> and haidi lune. a quick look at the headlines. new global shipping regular laces will support them for the next two years with brent heading to 90 bucks by 2020. it will force consume lesser fuel. d that will boost demand for middle products creating more need for crude. >> bloomberg's been told that
they're in a major off-shore wind farm in taiwan. they're in advance talks to acquire u shine energy. they finance them. and the project is still in the planning projects. and may have to have $1.8 billion to develop. > murdoch plans to take charge of the remaining businesses. the 46-year-old who was chairman at the new company which is being report as new fox. rupert murdoch wasn't mentioned in the company statement. little early for a dram in asia. wo bottles of rare 60-year-old istle yk i, they show an
unquenchable thirsts for spirits. each bottles carry answer estimate of more than half a million u.s. dollars excluding a premium. haidi, cheers to that. haidi: it's not quite friday yet. betty: almost. aidi: daybreak asia. taking a look at what's going on. >> we're not whiskey con sources but perhaps you might have more to add on that. >> i dabble in whiskey. but it's quite early. but you know what, just in the contexts of marks you need more liquid investments looking at financial conditions tighting up there. that's a very bad joke. alicia's coming on the show. she'll receive global markets asia. she overseas pan-say sha to talk
about tencent. one question for her. how is the street getting tencent wrong every single time? lots of things to talk about, of course, as we unpack the result from tencent. >> we're unpacking tim packet of rising yield on emerging marketings. jaguar growth partner gary aribrand who has made he isier informsing. does he agree with some of the dire scenarios as outlined by carmen reinhart. >> there' a type we can alleviate that somewhat was ea as we look into the implications. he's there today. tomorrow, going into the end of the week. and also why he says cutting china's u.s. treasury holdings
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here int is 7:00 a.m. hong kong, we are live from bloomberg's asian headquarters. i am david ingles. welcome to "daybreak asia." stocks in asian-pacific set to rise. treasuries pushing higher, yet again. the s&p 500 popping its average price for the last 100 days. the russell 1000 at an all-time high. in newi am betty liu york. asia's top economic advisor holding talks. urging to stop beijing's unfair trading practices. polirs