tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg May 30, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
♪ haidi: wall street rebounds along with sure yields as investors reassess market direction to the gridlock in italy. ramy: the s&p 500 and the most in three weeks, hoping the selloff caused by fears about the future of the eurozone. and rigidewhere, slow institutions, and the wto causes great concern. ramy: and beijing trade blows with washington, saying the
administration's policy flip-flops are harding -- are hurting its credibility. sydney, thisfrom is "daybreak australia". past 6:00 inust new york. over the next hour we look at how the action and wall street will play into your asia-pacific trading day. better andre looking if you like you come back at a time or the storm has passed, sending off fresh elections after all, we see the relief rally with u.s. stocks rallying over panic over italy subsides. seeing a major move, and financials in particular getting a lift after that u.s. 10 year rising and that nasdaq rising
slightly with interesting gains their. interesting because when we closed, it is almost as if yesterday never happened. we recoup all of our losses and then some in large part because of the unwinding of the haven trades. hop on to the bloomberg terminal and check this out in your gtv library if you are a subscriber. as haven demand unwinds, and you can see the yield on the 10 year treasury fell the most in's june of 2016, and you have this blue circle that shows that recouping of that is up by several basis points on the u.s. 10 year. also see the yield rise on the two and five. what is happening in italy is starting to stabilize. setting upthat is for a much better sentiment going into asia as well. a look at what has settled
the most nervous when it comes to indications to italy. jumped 50r yield basis points above 3%, and that has come down and dropping, and you have a debt auction. that went off, all things considered, pretty well. index topic dollar the most we have seen in three weeks and i will take some of the pressure off emerging markets. the euro picking up a little as well, nafta getting batted in the last few sessions. wasthe safety haven trade the popular one in the last few days coming off a little bit. you have trading under weight in new zealand, the kiwi dollar .6987. at with oile the selloff
as welcome us and you looking brighter and the aussie dollar holding at .7578. watching the pmi today and the rest of the week to the next sentiment move up when it comes to the aussie. ramy: there is some positivity looking ahead to the markets. a quick programming note, you don't want to miss our exclusive interview with morgan stanley chair and ceo james gorman later in daybreak asia. that is at 10:00 a.m. sydney time and 8:00 new york time. let's get the first world news with courtney collins. to lower china is tariffs on a wide range of consumer goods on july 1, including duties on clothing and footwear, washing machines and other. goods and beauty products the decision comes after a meeting from the state council, and
follows president trump's announcement that he will proceed with measures against chinese imports. the u.s. commerce secretary says washington is concerned that the wto and other international institutions are too rigid and slow to adapt change. he told the oecd in paris the trump administration would embrace multilateral funding if disputes and failed to move faster. the president is due to hit europe with new tariffs, he said. organizationsal said here's a list of 10 things we must do right away. that kind of approach, as opposed to study groups proliferating more study groups is the kind of thing that gives us very great concern. courtney: china is accusing the trump administration of damaging
its credibility by flip-flopping on policy, and reaffirm it will fight back if washington put in tariffs. contradict anhey agreement in may and that settling the dispute. the foreign ministry declined to comment on wilbur losses plan for more talks. >> when it comes to the international relationship, every flip-flop and you turn is depleting and squandering its own credibility. we urge the u.s. to honor its commitment and work with china. italy remains without a government as the president waits to hear from the populist parties that announced him as an enemy of democracy. the five-starif and delete are ready to revive their potential coalition three days after he torpedoed their pick of. the national chief.
civil parties are calling for a new election as soon as july. and the u.s. and north korea continue to prepare for next months, summit now less than two weeks away. representative is a new york with talks with mike pompeo at the is the highest-ranking north korean figure to visit united states and student. he and pompeo earlier this month, and he accompanied kim jong-un to recent meetings with the leaders to china and south korea. global news, 24 hours a day, on the air, and at tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ramy: let's take a closer look at the u.s. rebound in stocks as well as those bond yields as the u.s. dollar dropped, and oil prices climbed. su keenan joins us.
there is this growing feud that seems the market selloff yesterday was overdone. the s&p 500 we go more than it lost yesterday. su: started just say this is a cycle, and the market senses a selloff and then a strategist says will see more of the same going forward. to giving at the market snapshot, we have the dollar lower. we have the s&p coming back 2000,, and the russell bright new record shows us we continue to see the smaller companies both larger gains in the multinationals. let's move in to the national stocks in focus. we see pretty good gains on the day and top the chart is this company that makes factory built homes, and that is a play on higher home prices and they beat
the street prices in a big way. and bouncing back across the one of thesocean, many energy stocks rising with the underlying commodities. bloomberg,nto the gtv is where you can find the library of charts. this is the pain trade before the rally, and they changed in the big way. we saw treasuries rally and yields fall. let's go into the next big bloomberg chart showing us the financial flow rate of investors, trading the largest etf. zone, downs big almost 4% yesterday and bounced back better than 2% in the latest session shows you some of the gyrations we are seeing. ramy: one other thing on radar is trade war talks. 10 days ago steven mnuchin is saying there is no trade war or at least it is on hold.
today, the white house saying it is back on. peter navarro saying forget what steven mnuchin said, we are still talking about potential trade tariffs, in particular with china. su: let's go into some of the stocks affected. still stocks rallied in a big way. there is background concern that china-u.s. tensions -- it is not a great thing big picture wise. but look at the aluminum and still stocks, they had gains. perhaps the calm before the storm. it will be interesting to see how this plays out. haidi: very interesting indeed. thank you for a look at the overnight trade reaction. look -- i want to start with this chart in the gtv library.
we are trying to make sense of this outside move in global markets turning risk off on account of this uncertainty over italy. if you look at this chart, we are licked yet volatility group index from merrill lynch. the worry is at a level we haven't seen since a february selloff. does it indicate we are seeing fundamental concerns that are in place about how late in the cycle we are in for everything eroded over it until he? at the dollar index and emerging markets currencies -- credit spreads and interest rates that are on the rise, there is a lot of evidence beforehand. alluded to positions in the marketplace for example, and it euro-dollar futures reached record lows. have that moc minutes last week that started a little bit
of the correction that was exacerbated. a lot of this was in place beforehand. haidi: given we did see the rebound overnight, a lot of people calling it -- do you think this is a temporary? what happens and how to investors position themselves? even if you take in italy exit out of the picture, there's concerns about geopolitics over north korea and the oil market and trade as well. early in thetoo summer to go on an extended vacation? that might be the best advice i have for investors. i know that does not sound too serious, but i think we are going to see so much uncertainty over the summer. if you look at the economic surprise indices out there, they are slowing down. on the other hand we have a fed and itming in june,
remains an open question and will be a process of discovery. i don't think at this moment in time we have a big directional player. i see a lot of uncertainty that leads to volatility. i see outside moves given these headlines, and the flip-flop on the trade issue or other issues going out there. i think the market will respond accordingly. think the treasury market, the long end, we have stalled because positions that make oversold or short out there, and we are going to wait for the dust to settle and it is going to be a jittery summer. ramy: in terms of trajectory for interest rates moving ahead, taking into account all of this -- you can't go on to vacation, we can't go on vacation. where you think will be in the
middle or late summer? david: i am on the bearish side, three and a quarter or maybe as 3 .5.s thee's a problem for liquidity market, and auctions will have to respond accordingly. i don't think the economy is turning over. i think there is this volatility of uncertainty the puts upward pressure on rates. the recent boom move notwithstanding, i think -- i don't think investors have as much interest at 2.75 or 2.85 and aey would at 3 or 3 quarter. ramy: one of the things we are time about is italy if it will exit, and for the long game, i want to put the rest that it elite likely won't leave the eurozone.
eight likely won't leave the eurozone. italy want to leave the eurozone. david: we had the move with brexit, and then we settled down and it is a long wait. we had this one event with italy. we don't know if there will be collections coming or what it will result in. -- i think it is going to be a long process and we are going to be watching the headlines. i think the drama for the moment is overdone and we have to see how things play out. i still thinkat, the problems in the eurozone in general against our interest rate differentials and our economy doing relatively better -- with the threat of trade sanctions not just with china
but organizations and countries in europe that could affect them. i think that has the potential of upward pressure on interest rates and that will be a long story. ramy: we will check back with you as that develops. ader, thank you very much as always. who isup, we ask exactly in charge of a as pets to new elections that could determine it's very feature in the european union. haidi: up next china accuses the trump administration of flip-flopping on trade. monday the waters and ahead of negotiations ahead of beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪
york and you are watching "daybreak australia". according to peter navarro, got steven mnuchin's comments earlier this month about putting quote, anon hold as unfortunate soundbite. a tradewe have is dispute with china, they engage in unfair trade practices and run up a $370 billion trade surplus with us, which cost us over a million factory jobs. we lost the trade war it long time ago. ramy: joining us now is bloomberg washington reporter, greg sullivan. how likely is a trade war at this point? : it seems we are looking at an certificate when it comes to china and the u.s.. we heard eater navarro's comments, and granted he is a hardliner, and taking with yesterday's surprise tariff announcement and today,
secretary sarah sanders saying steven mnuchin's comments about trade war being on hold weren't meant to be indefinitely, saying president trump ultimately makes these traits decisions. of that together races the prospects the u.s. is taking a harder line all of a sudden with china. and we heard china reported, calling the u.s. had flip-flopped and those moves injure credibility of a country. definitely more uncertainty on the trade front. haidi: this doesn't exactly instill confidence for another round of talks this weekend. greg: that is right. commerce secretary wilbur ross is scheduled to be in china next week for these ongoing talks. that the morets hard-line approach coming out of the white house with surprise tariff announcements does not seem like two parties close to
reaching an agreement. with the officials are scheduled to be in beijing this week to set a broad outline for what commerce secretary wilbur ross is expected to discuss next week. there are reports if they don't reach an agreement on what is discussed on trade talks, it could fall apart and there is reports that the tariff plan moving forward could also the talks --s -- email derail talks. haidi: the north korean summit appears to be moving forward, what do we expect to happen ahead of this summit? appears the summit is still on, especially with a high ranking official coming from north korea, the highest-ranking official in 18 years to visit the country. is scheduled to have dinner tonight with mike pompeo. the two met previously in north
korea. this official is former north korea's spy chief and he is an eight kim jong-un and has been at his side during meetings in the run-up to this summit. it appears there is movement on that front that hasn't been called off yet. we will be watching his visit as well as several other talks that are ongoing. haidi: bloomberg washington reporter, rex sullivan, and you ,or joining us -- greg sullivan they give for joining us. we can watch us live and catch up with past interviews on our interactive tv function, tv . you can dive into securities of bloomberg functions we talk in thend join conversation by sending us and sit messages during our show. this is for bloomberg subscribers only and check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: i am haidi lun in sydney. ramy: and you are watching "daybreak australia". let's get a check of business flash headlines. google is working on an upgraded pixel smartphone line for this october, including a model with an edge to edge screen. global is the revenue for the quickly come to fund that has yet to make major sales impact, and google will ship fewer than 4 million pixels last year, compared to apple's 260 million iphones. tesla model three sedan has finally a coveted recommendation for consumer magazine after updating improved, the influential magazine declined to recommend the model last year after testing showed it took longer to stop them in fort f-150 pickup. carsafety have never seen a
improve its performance this much over a year of upgrades. chase as the throne citigroup is a largest trader by market share, taking a 12.1% share in euro money institutional survey, at the ubs and computerized trader markets. citigroup dropped to fifth with 6.2%, that it would be second if the methodology hadn't changed to remove short revenue swaps from the annual list. ceo says the company will be ready for an ipo next year but may not want to go ahead. he says he has no issue going public but wants to ensure it will be a major benefit for the company. the chinese rival has told bloomberg there will be keen to merge with airbnb and saying a u.s. company cannot do that and china without their help. ramy: to india, icici bank is launching an investigation into
allegations that their ceo failed to comply with the lender's code of conduct. the board will look into a whistleblower complaint about her dealings with certain our oars and alleges she violated related toprovisions conflict of interest over time. i cic says they have full confidence for its ceo. haidi: let's take a look at how the market for trading early in that. asia trading session the rebound is caring in new zealand as we see gains there. with aook at the s&p gain of 2/10 of 1% when it comes to the kiwi dollar trading just shy of 70 u.s. cents. and a aussie dollar holding at .757. china pmi is key there, and for
haidi: it is 8:30 a.m. in sydney, and futures licking positive in sydney, 7/10 of 1% higher, and asian futures looking better than yesterday, and we have asia shares moving though the 200 day moving average, the first time in two years there. and to the trading day, and things looking brighter today with these worries over italy seeming to subside a little bit. iny: and i am ramy inocencio york where it is past 6:30 p.m. in your watching "daybreak australia". let's get the first world news with courtney collins. signs of there are
more discord in the white house, peter navarro has criticized treasury secretary steve mnuchin for saying the u.s.-china trade -- war is on hold. the u.s. lostsay the trade war long time ago when china joined the wto. president trump has publicly expressed regret at pointing jeff sessions as attorney general. tweets, trump coordinate a lawmaker saying there are lots of good lawyers in the country and he could have picked somebody else. trump then added, i wish i did. the new york times reported sessions refused trump's request to change his mind from reducing himself from the russia investigation. the fed board has taken the most concrete steps yet to roll back rose to impose to make banks
safer after, a meltdown ticking off an administrative process and significantly reducing financial firms. trump hit regulators giving banks more leeway to complying with rules. bloomberg sources say warren billionis proposing $3 in uber this year, but talks fell apart over the. terms and size of the deal. for now bit transition is reminiscent of the winning back berkshire hathaway made on goldman sachs during the financial crisis, and to an event -- uber credibility. this is bloomberg. "daybreak: asia." global news, 24 hours a day, on the air, and at tictoc on twitter.
powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's get a quick update on the markets. you see trading in new zealand get underway. we are coming off session highs with kiwi stocks at .6987. off coming coming off of the improvement in the situation with italy additionally managing to avoid fresh elections and getting a governor -- government formed their. pickup in oil prices with wti stopping the five-day losing streak. sydney futures like more positive, and the energy sector is seeing a nice boost. and we see u.s. treasuries boosting financials going into the session. , the u.s.0 year yield dollar also find the most in three weeks in the overnight session. they euro seeing a spike, and we see pressure coming off of the dollar yen coming into the tokyo open.
it is all about italy. ramy: is also so much more especially with what is happening here with the fed. italy's political crisis has moved to the back burner for now it's shadow is moving to the biggest central bank that is prepared to meet and two weeks time. let's get more on this because kathleen hays is here with me with a look. let's start with the fed, the focus is in the economy, and a lot is happening in addition to that. if one iswe know watching the federal reserve, and the italian political crisis. ast could affect the policy, bond markets have yields climbing. the italian crisis is still but the focus has receded a bit and we can focus on the economy. the news today i want to look at at first quarter gdp revised
2.2%, that is about the fed view of 1.8%, so our inventory growth points to inventory building, a lot of big houses on wall street revising forecast for second-quarter gdp up to 3% or higher. banks givedistrict their forecast to the feds come up with what they are seeing in the region. growth is moderate, amid strong manufacturing. the minus is some consumer spending and wage gains remain modest. in june 13fed hike is seen as a done deal. ahead, theng european central banks meets in two weeks time. what is the chance that anything that happens in italy reduces
labonte out there? bonds out there? kathleen: we see the five and 10 year old reasonably well, and likewise in europe, some big economic news because germany's inflation rate jumped above 2%. europe, the news for and you can see the white line is germany's cpi, while below 2%. is what makesthat this jump higher, i can the ecb be lower on rate hikes given the political crisis and not respond to something like this? on the other side of the corn, and simmer confidence fell in italy, france, and spain, in april. you can see how that further complicates the ecb's past, in a time where economic members in the euro area have slow down.
it is a balancing act, and there's a lot on their plate. haidi: a great deal of uncertainty. kathleen hays company the focus back on monetary policy. let's get more on what you should be watching. forget -- does this mean we are going to see less pressure in the euro? >> the pressure has east of bounced back up, and we show you how to tighten bond futures and the euro have tracked together. they mostly bounced overnight, we still don't have in the italian government. sort of don't know what government we might get, whether you get elections for the time president, try to navigate this difficult situation. as kathleen was talking about,
same goes for the ecb. aey have a similar, between rock and a hard place. stop or talk about stopping buying bonds with italian yields that have gone skywards and have come slightly back down? spanish portuguese yields are up. buying, youour bond put those countries, all of which have a lot of depth coming, in a tough situation. -- ie basics backed strongly suspect that the ecb will participate in their favorite sport, kicked the can down the road. wonder in this environment if can kicking isn't such a terrible thing. workeld: it might
politically as well as economically. haidi: pmi, what are we watching? wereeld: that is one thing asian traders can forget about italy and focus on serious data coming. the most serious is the china pmi. that people in the fourth quarter of last year, and came down, and collapsed in february. that was influenced why the holidays. that all came at a time when stocks were trading down in asia. for thems are looking many fracturing gauge and traders will be hoping that it will get a slight beat because it will confirm even if china's economy is slowing down a bit, it is a moderate slowdown.
i think that is what equities are looking for to catch a fresh may.after a wretched haidi: don't forget to check your gtv library for some of the charts with gtv on your terminal. crisis -- the entire the italian crisis. ramy: later in daybreak asia, our exclusive interview with morgan stanley chairman and ceo, james gorman, and up at 10 a.m. sydney time and 8:00 p.m. eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪
to is happening in italy as well as a long -- around the world. a lot of people saying nothing is on the table, and senior fellow at the peter institute for national economics joined us from washington dc. let's look at what is happening in italy. what a difference a day makes because there is a lot of optimism on the markets. under if you shared that optimism or if you think this is akin to a dead cat bounce on the markets. >> i don't think much has changed since yesterday. the ascending, political force in italy remains the league, and its leader -- i am skeptical that they will ofept to enter into any kind government respective of who is
the finance minister. clear interest in having an early election, which they expect to win. am quite skeptical that the situation today is better than yesterday. they have a second chance of trying to form a government that developed over the past day or so. you are basically saying that is not going to happen? if question then is, sovereignty issues or if italy tries to pull out of the eurozone, you think that is a possibility? jacob: i think it is a real risk. i think the real danger to me is that if you have an early election, and it is essentially for or against the euro membership for italy. where ahave a situation political party suggest the league weights that election,
which should not be ruled out. remember in italy you have an election law that if it gets more than 40% of the total vote, you are guaranteed an absolute majority in parliament. you could also risk having an election that leads to a hung parliament. and the rest of the euro area, it may be interpreted as a public vote by italians that they want to leave the euro. i don't thinkion, you can completely rule out the possibility. it is a dangerous game the president of italy is playing, in my opinion. haidi: business call into question -- does this call into question that the experiment has been a failure? there is no doubt italy economically, very
poorly in the euro area. if you look at gdp, italy is the same or below what it was in 1999. is that because of the common currency? i don't personally believe that. i think it has to do with much more deeper rooted structural thompson italy are than the common currency. structural currency. i think there is a link, but, the euro is not to blame for the vast majority of italy's problems today. haidi: when you look at how restrictive policymakers are and how they can deal with this. you have different levels of growth and inflation and labor markets across europe. does this suggest that can change and is a risk or what happens if italy could
anentially be ringed to extent? if everything went something in italy, there would be contagion the rest of the eurozone. italy is the third largest economy, but i think the contagion you will see will be through a broader slowdown in growth. it will be through the real economy. it would it be through the financial market taking system type contagion we saw a lot of in the early part of the crisis in 2010 or 2011. there certainly would be contagion, but it would be gradual and it will be the end area growth rates north of 2% that we have seen the last couple of years. ramy: as you are talking, the term playing with fire comes up to my head, and also playing with fear and respect to the
populist parties as well as the pro-establishment party. what will it take for the and forblishment folks, the technocrats to try to convince voters in some future election to try to's they -- to try to stay pro-europe. i see it as an invitation for financial markets to wait and put pressure on the italian economy, and therefore on italian voters. you have to say it has worked. however, the problem is it may not be enough. it is one thing to do what you did in greece in 2015 but enough financial market and political pressure on a sitting government and cause the government to flip and the way that the prime minister did in greece in the
summer of 2015. it is quite different to do it with actual voters. financial markets and rising spreads may not be enough if you have an early election in italy. you may have to have much more accordion and happened suggest capital control, restrictions on access to the posits in banks, to really hammer down the message this is very serious for voters to get it. then you are basically creating a self fulfilling prophecy of having a deep recession in italy, which is something you want to avoid. haidi: the want to talk about what george soros has talking about as the ins -- as the destruction that could potentially come through from that. yet another set of trade talks between the trade chief, wilbur ross, happening today. thethink on the trade in
trade and economic front that is going to be something that weighs on growth across the eurozone? jacob: i think you are seeing it already. the slowdown in business confidence and slowdown in business investment indicators that you have seen in germany and elsewhere is clearly related to the concerns about transatlantic global trade. is the scalehat, of tariffs envision going to be material? a euro area that has trade surplus around 3% of gdp -- no, it is not, but it weighs on sentiment, no doubt about it. haidi: all of this rests on the outcome we get from the u.s.-china trade talks. are you optimistic that the posturing going into talks will get a sensible resolution in the end? youb: i think ultimately
will have some sort of arrangement between the united states and china. i don't see the trump administration really wanting to go ahead with a full-blown trade desperatelyey are trying to get a deal done with north korea. the chinese are clever enough to know to play that game on both sides of the table. they will ensure north korea isn't going to sign up to anything until we can say there is a cease-fire on the trade front of the united states. am optimistic you will avoid the worst outcome. always a pleasure of having you on. coming up, china's capital controls have cost australia over $6 million in planned, investments and it will be cut in half and will get more on the state of australian-chinese ties next on bloomberg. ♪
ramy: i am remy inocencio in new york. haidi: you are watching "daybreak australia". planned investments in a still you with approvals falling 18%, that is 8.5 billion aussie dollars in the last fiscal year. expect more from bloomberg us earlier reported jason scott joining us. falling -- whyn have they been falling? >> these capital controls imposed by the chinese government -- these controls had a big impact on outflows of chinese capital, especially last year. billion in 2016,
and in the last year, that some planned investment falling 18% in the last fiscal year two $29 billion u.s., and the real estate sector was particularly affected by this with foreign investment relators approvals to chinese investment in that having told billion dollars. that sector was affected by fees and taxes imposed by the australian government on foreign buyers. to eases started capital control, so be interesting to see if there will be a knock on effect going. to the other part of the equation, and diplomatic tensions and the risk you have between beijing recently. whether or not there is a link between the capital controls and the actual
automatic steps you see with china industrial yet is yet to be seen. there's no doubt those tensions are impacting china and the still yet diplomacy, and also trade ties. the started in december of 2017 when mr. malcolm turnbull went reports of chinese meddling in australia's universities and systems of government for the need to impose new foreign interference laws. anti-foreign interference laws -- since to has been media reports, diplomatic freeze between the two nations. are has denied there is any problem, but it was exposed last week when chinese foreign minister li said that a cilia is to blame for these tensions. most chinas the developed coming in the world
with 30% of its two-way trade we aligned with china. will be interesting to see how this plays out in the future. there wouldn't be any quick fix. leave it there, thank you very much, we have breaking news across the bloomberg terminal right now in the space of u.s.-canada-mexico relations. , trump is to impose metal tariffs on the u.s. northern and southern neighbors, in addition to the european union. this is according to the washington post, thoroughly questioning up tensions and this could be the get more leverage in the nafta talks. trump said to impose tariffs on friendly countries. getting thesealso from south korean newspaper saying u.s. and north korea have discussed diplomatic ties, it seems talks continue as we get the top north korean official in
here init is 7:00 a.m. hong kong. i am yvonne man. welcome to "daybreak asia." stocks rebound along with treasury yields as investors reassess the reaction to gridlock in italy. set toacific markets extend wall street's advance. all signaling gains. global bloomberg's headquarters, i am ramy inocencio in new york. wilbur ross attacks what he calls slow and rigid institutions. he says the wto causes the u.s. great concern. beijing trade flows