tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg May 31, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
today in new york with the former north korean intelligence chief. >> this is a difficult challenge. make no mistake about it. there remains a great deal of work to do. asmade progress here as well in the other venues the conversation was taking place. we had all the terminated today to make the progress that was achievable. is theim jong-chol first top official to visit the united states in 18 years. they are also meeting with korean delegations in the demilitarized zone and singapore. with hurricane season starting tomorrow, officials in washington and puerto rico are preparing for another catastrophe that cuts power on the island for weeks or possibly months. the head of the federal emergency management agency in puerto rico says hundreds of
generators are already being installed in key areas. >> i can't predict the storm. i can't predict where the storm will hit. i have to create an organization that gives me the flexibility to move if it happens. if it is beyond what we even imagine, which is possible, we are ready to adapt. nearlyema has stockpiled 5.5 million gallons of water and nearly 80,000 turks to keep out to the rain. tarps to -- 80,000 keep out the rain. "can is signs saying bleeding" and "stop these -- "kenya is bleeding" and go to stop these these" were marching today. this week, 24 officials were charged in an investigation
linked to the alleged diversion of newly $80 million. nearly $80 million. aere's no need to form technical government after leaders of italy's anti-margaret lee party and the star movement said they reached a deal to form a government. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: -- julia: we are 30 minutes from the close of trading in the u.s. joe: the question is, what you miss? scarlet: the five star movement and league have reached an agreement on a cabinet ministers. the u.s. versus its closest allies, the decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum sparked swift retaliation. ahead onotors getting the self driving race. julia: allies vowing retaliation
after wilbur ross announced that the u.s. will proceed with tariffs on steel and aluminum from europe, canada, and mexico. international correspondent mike mckee joins us now with the latest. q could it be in a better place -- you couldn't be in a better place. disappointment and surprise from the trade partners of the united states. nafta is dead as a result of this. : nobody really knows what the administration wants to get out of these tariffs. no one knows where we go from here. steven mnuchin will be arriving later this afternoon and plunge into bilateral meetings. earlier, the german foreign minister called the u.s. action
unlawful and said the answer to america first must be europe united. united they are. john kline juncker -- jean-claude juncker said they will go forward with the tariffs list they put forward, including on u.s. motorcycles and bourbon whiskey. the canadian prime minister, justin trudeau, called the whole thing deplorable. he said he would like to continue with the nafta but will cancel a trip to the united states over because the united states has not been cooperative. a lot of back and forth, a lot of retaliation, but no one knows what happens next. joe, you mentioned that prime minister trudeau will not make what had been a planned trip to the u.s.
specifically is the issue he got a call from mike pence of the insistence on a five-year sunset clause on nafta. as i recall, this idea was discuss several months ago -- discussed several months ago. i thought it was dropped or softened. that, what was perceived as a poison pill, it is still there and a threat to torpedo nafta? mike: it does appear to be. that is part of the trouble that the mexicans and the canadians say. they don't know what the american position is on many of these things. the sunset clause would require the nafta treaty to be renegotiated every five years. nobody likes the idea. canadians and the mexicans, but american businesses don't like it either because it makes it hard to put
forth long-term plans. now the administration has back.t that that wasn't even one of the primary issues over the last couple of weeks. autosa and dairy supports. it leads the canadians and to wonder what the administration is trying to do here. how manyi noticed times they referred to the unacceptable measures and the illegal tariffs. why impose these tariffs under section 232 under the banner of national security? what leeway does that give the united states? it enables the president to impose the tariffs without a specific justification.
he can claim that a strong steel and aluminum industry is important to national security and not justify any particular harm to the united states by any other steel explanations. the allies are all saying this is ridiculous. we have no 30 threat to the u.s. wilbur ross -- we have no security threat to the u.s. wilbur ross says that a weekend steel industry would be a eakened steel industry would be a security threat. a wto complaint will take years. that is why they will go with retaliatory tariffs of the same time. scarlet: goldman sachs is said to tom it's revenue and -- to top its commodities revenue in
the next downturn could look different from the less financial crisis. with erik spoke schatzker in arizona. erik began by asking if the next episode of distress will be bigger than the last? >>. it could be. >> it could be. it depends on where the capital flows are. that is just one piece of it. why the financial crisis was so great is you had this enormous constraint on the global liquidity. hopefully, we won't encounter that again and we will have a so it'smal environment not simply a function of the size of the leverage loan market. you need to look at what kind of triggers there are with respect to that capital. what kind of financial covenants
and the like. the: in recent years, stress has been relatively isolated. one industries do you figure are vulnerable? >> there are some media companies. clear channel, we have been .nvolved with clear channel weinstein, for example. shipping has been a large source of activity for us globally. erik: does it look like anything is poised to be next? >> we look at transactions and the leverage associated with those transactions. that, health care, certainly there has been a lot of activity in health care. companies that are having a more difficult time responding to technological changes within their industries.
ago, 20 yearsears weregood businesses probably more protected than they are now from new entrants. the disruptors are so substantial. erik: they had a wider moat. >> absolutely. that's why we like to stay on top of various disruptions happening across the industries we are involved in. it shows us not only can we give our existing clients on the corporate finance side better advice, but allows us to position where we want to allocate resources in the future and restructuring. we are always staffed for restructuring. it is part of our dna. hasrestructuring group north of 200 financial professionals. we have the largest group in the world in terms of number of
financial professionals and revenue. , to apublic, we now see certain next end, what our peers report on the restructuring side. not all break it out. some did, now they don't. arelways believe that there restructuring opportunities across industries and geographies out there to keep our people busy. the challenge for us, when you think about houlihan now -- we have over 200 professionals in restructuring -- we have more double that in corporate finance. most of those folks have deep industry specialization. so the challenge for us, as we look at what is coming down the road in a potential restructuring cycle, how do we continue to pare those industry experts and really good corporate finance bankers with
our restructuring leadership to generate even greater market share than we did during the financial crisis? as i look back, we were drinking out of a fire hydrant during the financial crisis. it all came at once. and there were a bunch of deals that we were not able to handle because we didn't have the capacity. we are in a better position now, given our more seasoned restructuring leadership. that was 10 years ago. to take on more and pare some of officesly great younger with middle market corporate finance bankers across industries to take advantage of a greater share of restructuring activities. this may normalized -- sound like a strange comment -- but in a more normalized restructuring environment, if you look back, we did him as $400 million in restructuring
revenue. we did $300 million or so in each of the last two years. , inan do substantially more some ways, if we don't have a repeat of 2008. it is a more normalized, progressive recession. we are a business that is 55% corporate finance and 15% fat. recession.g for a i'm just realistic about how the hoping for anot recession. i'm just realistic about how the world works. julia: that was irwin gold. it is now time for stock of the hour. wilbur ross famously used a campbell soup can while harmfulng what would be tariffs on steel and aluminum.
julie hyman is here with the details. you remember that when he had they can? julie: probably wants that moment back. he said it would be diminished. it's only a few cents a can. it won't be a big deal. . but the stock is not behaving like it won't be a big deal. we see consumer staple stocks selling off broadly. by onel is one example, that is doing worse today i'm on its peers. if you look at the packaging companies, you can look at what companies are the biggest suppliers to campbell. a lot of it has to do with packaging. ball corporation, bemis is more plastic packaging, and owens-illinois is glass.
when you talk about the cost for campbell going up, it definitely could be a factor. steel and aluminum prices have already been rising. joe: in addition to this, the circular- the macro changes. people are not buying that stuff. julie: soup in cans have not been as popular. added on top of what is already a challenging situation. recently leftceo and now it has an acting ceo. it is undergoing a ceo search. but the company has been talking about tariffs as a weight. about the we know anticipated costs, we expect our margins will be down in fiscal 2019. if you look at the bloomberg, we
have a look at their quarterly gross margins already and we have already seen a decline in that gross margin figure. already, it has seen an increase in cost. this would not be as much an issue if it was a better environment for things like soup and other kinds of packaged goods. the stock already has not been doing well over the past year, even when this was less of a factor. scarlet: i want to go back to steelmakers and aluminum companies. the reaction in these companies is a mixed. earlier, we saw strong gains for all of these companies. it is interesting now we have seen some of them are delivered to some degree. steel and aluminum prices have already been rising. there is a question for the stocks and the metals prices, how much is already priced in? julia: and with the canadians , retaliatory tariffs
the s&p 500 is up about 2% for the year. sentiment and fundamentals driving the performance. small caps are better insulated than large caps to international trade were concerns. the effect of the stronger on taxand a fewer play cuts, robust economy and consumer confidence. bloomberg intelligence as indicated that revenue forecast caps.mall over large energy names, because of higher prices and technology because they are cheaper than their larger peers on a relative basis when you look at sales. get moree continue to trade war, theoretically -- scarlet: that you continue to move that up. joe: less look at another trend. trend is not the right word. earlier this year, the aspects of portfolios is that heads portfolios were not working so well because bonds were selling off at the same time.
of the fed a light thelike that -- a lot of fear was inflation and the fed and stuff like that. the etf the tracks long treasuries, you see the inverse correlation going back. you see these big moves where one goes up and the others go down and then that one goes up and the other one goes down. it is miss you today. they are still -- it is messier today. they are still holding. it goes to italy and trade wars and stuff like that when people sell risk assets and by safety assets. if the story turns into inflation, maybe that will break down. at least for now, the hedge portfolios are working better than earlier this year. julia: five days trend? joe: i'll take one day.
julia: i am with you. could have a potential conundrum on their hands this week. whether it is italy or spain memoriesoncerns about of what we saw in 2011 with the debt crisis. the politics once again is the topical issue in europe. the what about economics? what about the inflation rates we have seen? got today shows inflation running at the fastest level in over a year. we got inflation of 1.9% in may. the ecb target is around or below 2%. suddenly, the retracement year of qe is a possibility, but there is a bust. energy prices, brent is $80 a barrel in the last month. that is a huge proportion of the number here. tobacco, food and alcohol, more than 2.5%.
stocks down but bounce off the lows as trade tensions layer -- flare once again. [bell rings] joke: if you are tuning in live on twitter, we want to welcome you to our closing bell coverage every weekday from 4:00 to 5:00 p.m. eastern. scarlet: we begin with our market minutes. stocks saddening, a bit rattled after the trump administration moved ahead with tariffs -- stocks sagging. demandse, that led to for safe havens like treasuries. the s&p 500 declining for the fourth time in five days and reducing its again for the month on this final trading day of may. joe: we just keep reversing ourselves. was it yesterday and update? and today a down day.
scarlet: i think this is volatility. a bigl motors getting boost, closing up 13% after announcing that the softbank vision fund is going to take a $2.25 billion stake in its kroos autonomous car unit, so big news .or gm looks like gm is getting ahead thate race to build autonomous car business unit. deutsche bank in the headlines once again. these are the u.s. shares for deutsche bank, so it's the american depository. we know shares hit a record low after u.s. regulators added the bank to a group of troubled regulators they monitor. deutsche bank said there are no concerns about its financial stability.
joe: let's look at the government bond markets, starting in the u.s. with the two and 10-year. higher. yield inching 10-year yield not doing anything, but we might expect more action tomorrow after the jobs report which will probably have a macro impact on the market. in europe, we saw buying. people a little bit more confident. in spain, down, despite the concerns growing over the stability of their government, though that has never been a significant market mover there and in italy, getting close to the formation of a government. at one point, the two-year yield had dropped below 1% today. still a significant move down to 1.07%. course, the shortened releasees the wild swings. let's look at the spread because people are talking about flattening once again. -- of course, the short end
really sees the wild swings. tale of twomuch a hawks. the easing political anxieties and italy versus tariff-sparking fears causing a global trade war. weakness is the name of the game . gdp readingsweaker out of canada as well which already contributed to the weakness we saw. euro-dollar 1.1690, easing concerns about the italian political situation, but let's see what happens in spain tomorrow. just a reflection of risk sentiment in the market, what is going on as far as dollar-yen and dollar-swiss is concerned today. to some degree, not a great lot, but obviously, some investors getting into japanese yen.
we have had some of those gains for the swiss and for the yen -- some of those gains. joe: oil slipping again. still volatile of late. remember, it had been in the low 70's recently come up and concerns about the fact that maybe saudi arabia would amped up production a little bit so oil continues to be a little soft. really doing anything and steal taking up, of course, that being one of the big stories of the day, which we will talk about a little bit later -- steel ticking up. scarlet: for more on today's market action, let's bring in oppenheimer fund cost cio -- oppenheimer fund's cio and head of fixed income. it's hard to believe we saw italian bond yields blowout just this week and you saw today's news with the trade tariff and
jobs news tomorrow. what is noise versus actually something that is driver for assets? >> it's actually quite remarkable that given all the turmoil -- tariffs, italy doing also to things and spain politically -- markets are relatively stable, so that is what i focus on. the underlying growth trend is quite decent. there are also some political and nonpolitical issues that are important, but at the end of the day, they are not impacting the markets as substantially as they i take ahe past, and great deal of comfort in that. julia: is it because we have seen it all before, if it's european political nonsense or betrayed tariffs? we practically got whiplash as far as these headlines are concerned. mr. memani: of course. this is nothing new. we have seen this movie before and nobody takes it to the conclusion, so why should we assign a significant risk premium to it?
julia: we should wait. the administration is struggling with china. on the trade front, it does not look great, and yet, relative calm. mr. memani: it does not look great, but the markets are telling you the likelihood any of this has a meaningful impact or the likelihood it gets to be extraordinarily catastrophic is very small. i think that is what the markets are saying. they could be wrong, but the point we would make is tariffs are all about politics, not about economics. economically, we cannot reduce our trade deficit meaningfully until we cut our fiscal deficit, and that is not happening any time soon, so trade deficits will be wide. trump came into power asserting certain things, and he is kind of delivering on it. at the end of the day, it will not move things materially. when welier in the week had the italy-inspired
volatility, we had a pretty significant repricing of expectations for the federal reserve. that showed up in bond yields falling pretty dramatically across the board. obviously, tomorrow's jobs report will be another catalyst one way or the other. who is right? did the market get a little bit ahead of itself with the fed, or was it right on tuesday? mr. memani: markets are reacting not just to news from italy but to the fed minutes of last week as well. what the fed has transmitted is the fact that they will allow 2%.ation to run north of that is a meaningful statement, i think, and therefore, the impact of the jobs number tomorrow, i think, will be far more muted as a result. joe: haven't they always said it is symmetric, the target? mr. memani: not as clearly as they did last time around. basically, they took the upside
on the two-year yield meaningfully. scarlet: i also want to bring and what you wrote about recently, which is italy and the idea of its exit for q -- or quitaly. we do see the formation of a new government in the works and italy. talk a little bit about what this means in terms of the prospect of a euro crisis. george soros has made rumblings about how another global crisis .ould be in store . morgan stanley's chairman and ceo said that's ridiculous, that's nowhere close to what we are facing. where do you fall on this? the idea that any economy in the eurozone leaves over the next few years, in my mind, the possibility is pretty small. i think if we got through greece and all the related issues, from
a political standpoint, we will find a way of getting out of it. the reason for that is relatively straightforward -- there's just no way out. fromnk the cost of exiting a union like this is extraordinarily high, and no politician wants to go down that path. scarlet: you can see what is happening in the u k as the case study for how it all plays out. julia: absolutely. mr. memani: i would put good money on it not passing as a result. julia: if we take the fundamentals out of it, what happens as far as the repricing this week and the moves we saw, the dramatic moves we saw at the front end of italy, the position and taking out of the full height over the next year in the fed as well for the u.s. treasury market?
given your fixed income expertise, does that not jar with you? to what extent is it six income versus liquidity because we have kind of not been tested in interested markets. mr. memani: i think it was more about positioning than anything else. if you were a bond trader, the easiest trading had the last kid of years was too short the two-year note. i think it got positioned to a particular level and assume is the fed indicated it may not be just one way forever, i think people started taking profits. italy just happened to come at the right time from that standpoint. peoplethe suggestion was were not making prices. the banks were not making prices. i mean in europe in particular. italian bond markets were not tradable for an extended period of time.
from that point, that's from that standpoint, it was very scary. we kind of worry about that a great deal, but as far as u.s. rates are concerned, i think it's not just italy but also the fact the fed is transmitting that they can let inflation run a little higher than they had indicated before. you had a question, and i interrupted you. be: tomorrow, is it going to another one of these 180, 2.6, 3.9 things? second quarter gdp is running a lot harder than first quarter gdp. if you were going to a sign probability, i think it is shaping up to be that way tomorrow. julia: great to chat with you as always. krishna memani. andng up, disagreements world markets, as we were just
♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with first word news. the canadian prime minister level sharp criticism at the united states for washington's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from canada, mexico, and europe. prime minister trudeau was foreign affairs minister in announcing retaliatory surcharges on nearly $13 billion worth of goods. actions, prime minister trudeau said that the
connections between the u.s. and canada are broad and deep and bigger than what he called the interpersonal dynamic between .im and president trump >> this decision by the u.s. administration will hurt canadians. it will hurt americans, and we regret that deeply, but we will continue to look for ways to continue to move forward in a way that does not continue to hurt or continue to harm our citizens in both of our countries the way the actions of this administration today have. mark: the canadian tariffs take effect on july 1 and will last until u.s. ends its move. rescuers are searching today for people who disappeared in rural virginia in flooding that washed out roads and bridges and damaged homes. the effects of subtropical storm alberto work felt across several states -- were felt across several states. there's the potential for more rain and flash flooding in the southeastern u.s. through the
end of this week. the environmental protection agency sent a white house a proposal widely expected to scale back future fuel economy standards for cars and trucks. rules set by the obama administration mandated that cars and light trucks average more than 50 miles per gallon by 2025, a move to fight climate froming emissions automobile exhaust. epa administrator scott pruitt a rollback in those standards, saying they were too high. some residents of a florida community were 17 people died in a school shooting have turned to politics. parents have formed a super political action committee which is raising money for a campaign to push the national rifle association out of politics and ban assault weapons, bump stocks, and high-capacity magazines. it's asking for donations of
$17, a dollar or each life lost in the shooting at marjory stoneman douglas high school. bloomberg news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: p5-star movement and link parties have reached an agreement on a cabinet. moves the eurosceptic economist who was rejected by the president, to foreign affairs. the new government will be sworn in on friday. joining us now to discuss this, bloomberg's opinion editor by phone from rome. you had written in previous days that the way things were unfolding in italy, populists were being driven by politics, not by some sort of noble
principle. they are jostling ahead of french elections. we no longer have elections on the table, but are they still playing with politics? >> i think what happened is that reallye-star movement wanted to get the government going. the real surprise was the northern league, the right-wing writinghich really was very high in the polls and could have benefited from the last election. content just went to meet the italian president today. i think what will reassure many in the establishment and i suspect quite a few in the financial market is the replacement as finance minister. i think that is one thing which most investors will be looking
at. joe: you said it was a surprise, but why has the league ascended to a new government when the one party whose. marchsen since the election? fernando: one reason may be the reaction over the last you days -- been really dramatic ferdinando: when reason may be the reaction over the last few days has been really dramatic. this could have been a very hot summer for everyone and probably could have told the electoral campaign. also, the alternative was the president really was serious about imposing some sort of stopgap technocratic administration, and i suspect even within the league, they might have said if there is a crisis here, maybe this
technocratic government will last for longer than we want it, so it's much better to compromise on a number of positions including the finance minister, and get this started, and the league leader has a very tough agenda on immigration, which he wants to start to apply immediately. : you have a novice prime minister antietam extremes in terms of parties forming this coalition -- a novice prime inister and two extremes terms of parties forming this coalition. how long do we think this lasts? ferdinando: the draft is a list of unbelievable pledges. the independent cost of this program is over 100 billion euros for a country with a debt gross domesticus product. nobody knows how they will find the money for all this and i suspect it will be one of the real issues for the coalition. there's a lot of talk about them
having a tough relationship with europe, but the real question will be how they are going to get along because their priorities are quite different. .he league wants to cut taxes the five-star movement is much to go and giving income support to the poor. they will soon realize that there is not that much money there, and it's not just because of europe but mostly because of the investors who really would like to see what they are going to do, so when it will be clear that there are budget constraints, i think the wrangling will start. i think we will see how far they are willing to compromise. skied: got it. joining us byiano liano -- ferdinando giug joining us by phone. thank you. up next, we head over to richard for the latest in spain. this is bloomberg.
carlet: "what'd you miss?" tomorrow could be the last day of the government in spain. parliament seems ready to oust the government with a new confidence vote. let's bring in our spanish economy reporter. it looks like the opposition has enough votes to win this no-confidence vote. the question is if he will resign before the vote takes place. miracle totake a give the government in place. rivals have lined up against him. he could have technically resigned but has decided not to do it. what we understand from sources he knows he is that
will be defeated but will not resign. essentially, they had just accepted that he will be ousted, an unprecedented situation in spain. a prime minister has never been ousted by parliament. focus haseople whose been mostly on italy the last few days, the situation is not comparable in the sense that by a large, there's no change to the roughly centrist pro-europe stance of whatever government comes in. >> that's right. that's the big difference when it comes to italy. markets when it comes to span wouldriced in that rajoy have stayed in office until 2020. is veryalist party different from the populist party we see in italy. this is a party that has been in government before and is clearly a party that wants to stay in europe, the euro, and that is not a question. the only issue is what is that
economic policy, and again, they said they wanted to call an election. today, they did not give themselves any deadline. they can stay in office until 2020. that is something cleveland markets were not prepped for, but it is a situation we are in. is going to be kicked out and sanchez will be the new prime minister. clearlyis something markets were not prepped for. julia: we all know the catalonia situation has been brewing beneath the surface for span and particular. what about the potential kingmakers, the basque nationalists? there was wrangling going on with their prime minister, too, so just break it down in terms of who gets what and how they get it. maria: that's right. it will all be essentially down to five lawmakers from a tiny region in northern spain. this is a party that can really cut deals with the p.p.
in fact, they did. they cut a budget last week. what we understand is that the socialists have said they will come and on election, and they will keep the budget in place, which included a financial windfall for them, so they will get to keep that. when it comes to catalonia, you pointed out it is a very sensitive issue in spain. socialists are saying they will not offer any concessions, but s do feel they might get a better deal if the socialists are in power. julia: not looking great for the prime minister. great work. thank you so much for that. our spanish economy reporter from madrid, and it's late there, so we thank you again. coming up, softbank's vision
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mark crumpton was first word news. belgium's foreign minister today criticized the u.s. decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from europe, mexico, and canada, saying the action amounted to trade protectionism. >> we need to react at the level of the european union, and we will introduce pressure to to reacte dispute against the protectionist measures of the u.s. administration. i'm hoping it will be possible to avoid an escalation because we don't want to have a trade war.
we want to have a real ally in the u.s. juncker calledde the u.s. action unacceptable and ford that this is a bad day world trade. the syrian president is threatening to attack the region held by u.s.-backed kurdish fighters in northeastern syria. in an interview broadcast on russian media, assad also said american troops should leave the country. he also said he is open to negotiations with the kurdish-run administration while also preparing to "liberate by force." hurricane season starts tomorrow in the u.s. experts pretty to 70% chance the season could see as many as four asor storms, packing wind high as 111 miles per hour or higher. officials in puerto rico worry it would take far less than a category three storm to trigger
a blackout similar to the one that plunged the island into darkness after hurricane maria. at least 13,000 people in puerto power.e still without global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 in oversts and analysts 100 20 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. skied: let's get a recap of today's market action. declines all around for u.s. stocks. the s&p losing .7%. the dow off a 250 two points. the s&p declining for a fourth time in five days after the president escalated trade tensions with canada, mexico, and the european union by moving ahead with his plan to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum off 252-- the dow points. joe: general motors announced softbank will invest $2.25
cruise into its crews -- unit, giving them a 19.6% stake. our next guest comes to us from ann arbor, michigan. what will this investment allow dose -- cruise to do? sam: i think it's about commercializing faster and getting up to scale. over the last several years, softbank has been making a flurry of investments into the mobility service segment. they have investments recently in the u.s. with uber. they put about $11 billion into them a few years back. also, the predominant chinese india, and numerous other companies around the world. what they have not had is a supplier of vehicles. this gets them a connection to a
manufacturer that can supply vehicles to all these other services. put the vehicle into context in terms of how it stacks up to other competitors in the autonomy race. how our business prospects -- how are business prospects? mr. abuelsamid: gm has been technologyautonomous for a lot longer than pretty much anyone. they started talking about it at least this far back as the 1950's, but really, over the last decade, they've been working on it pretty aggressively and bringing in cruise a couple of years ago to really get to productionizing their autonomous software has been really helpful. i would say their technology is pretty much as good as anyone's.
as you say, they do have the manufacturing scale, and they also have other capabilities like they have a network of dealers that could be leveraged to provide service and maintenance operations for these mobility services. scarlet: what is interesting is we hear about what tesla is doing and we hear about what uber has been doing, and i think people forget gm has been making quite a bit of progress. softbank does have an investment in uber, so where does this leave the company like uber? mr. abuelsamid: they have really struggled with their development of automated driving systems. i would not be at also prized if in the not-too-distant future they perhaps just phase out their own internal development program entirely and focus on like gm.ith oem's they also have a deal they struck last year with daimler to mercedestonomous vehicles on the platform. their competitor lyft has been
doing the same thing, getting deals with various companies that are manufacturing the vehicle to deploy the vehicles on their platform. i would not be surprised to see it, refocus on that part of the logistics platform, along with other things they have been expanding that into, uber eats and freight and other areas, working with these companies to get vehicles that can support these different applications. joe: we saw a pretty dramatic rally today in shares of gm on this news. when you talk to people, do you think there is a lack of awareness at the degree of -- that gm is basically one of the market leaders in this space? absolutely.id: there is somewhat a lack of awareness that the auto industry in general has been really working hard on this for quite a long time. all the attention, obviously, has been focused on silicon
ideas, and a lot of great have come out of the valley, but with the manufacturers bring to the table is both manufacturing capability but also the knowledge and background with safety systems and being able to make systems that will be reliable in real use. i think the technology industry and the auto industry are starting to converge and come together and bring their to makes to the table these viable for real-world use. julia: how far our way from having a scalable commercial service, and who is winning that war? if we are several years away from that, is there still opportunity for other players to get in on the action? mr. abuelsamid: what we're looking at now is all the teams rushing into the first quarter mans.hours of le
say in racing, to finish first, first you must finish. the first we will see will probably be waymo. they promised to launch commercial service by the end of this year. then gm. years, we will see limited deployments in very specific locations, geo-fenced to areas where the technologies can work reliably, where we have the infrastructure to support it. the vast majority of people will not have access to autonomous vehicles are probably several years at least, so there is still plenty of time for other players to get a slice of this market. in the next 45 years, we are thousands, bys of 2022, 2023 timeframe, maybe a couple hundred thousand
vehicles, but it will not be until the mid-2020's we start getting into millions of vehicles, and there's a lot of time for other companies to get part of that type. joe: will autonomous driving be a winner take all or winner take most industry or like the auto industry itself right now where you have a lot of different players at commercial scale? mr. abuelsamid: i think it will be more like the commercial auto industry. probably fewer players than what we see in the auto industry. there will be consolidation, but i think there will not be just a single player that wins it all. there's plenty of room for everybody. there's a wide variety of services that will be needed. companies with different expertise in different areas will all be able to profit from this business going forward. scarlet: thank you for your perspective. coming up, competition to get into elite universities heating
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" and competitive or to college is about to begin for the class of 2023. college students facing the application process face record low acceptance rates from ivy league schools. the ceo and cofounder of a company with a strategy students to get in those schools joins me now. you are a new zealander, and you founded this company in new zealand, but you aim to target international students. talk a little bit about your
target audience because they are not just in new zealand. they are all over the world. >> exactly. when i was 18, i applied to 25 universities all around the world. i got into all these schools, and i wanted to help initially new zealand students get into their wish list schools. we had a lot of success. we have expanded around the world. scarlet: how is your company different from other companies that help kids get into school? mr. beaton: we have a global network of mentors from some of the world's best universities -- oxford, stanford, m.i.t., as well as corporate partners like goldman sachs or facebook. technology which matches students and their interests to mentors. that global access is instrumental to our success. scarlet: you are expanding in north america.
compare what your service offers with what local college admissions offer. they are familiar with the minutia of who gets in where p what value do you offer? mr. beaton: we typically start around the age of 14 or 15 and we have students construct a four-year plan across high school, constructing extracurricular solutions all the way through to this comprehensive college support where we help you speak to college students, so it is a much more copper hints of program involving usually five to eight mentors per student. scarlet: others mentors locally-based or all over the world? mr. beaton: they are all over the world. typically from the u.s., they will be here in new york. i have a local understanding as well as the blue places like all caps on -- places like oxford if
you are spinning an application over there. scarlet: talk about how demand has changed since 2016 with donald trump was elected president, and he has stepped up a lot of his anti-immigrant rhetoric, and that affects students and where they want to go to school. mr. beaton: for sure. people would expect u.s. them is to decline. they have seen a spike in applications to some of the most competitive schools but a relative decline in some of the less competitive schools. one trend we are seeing is more american students looking to apply to the u.k. we see an increase in demand for kids in the new york -- kids in new york and san francisco to get out of the country to go to university. scarlet: that is interesting. are they only looking at europe and the rest of the world as well? mr. beaton: we're seeing places looking at germany as well as canada and medical schools in places like new zealand, but the most classic place to apply is
u.k. or american students looking to leave the country. scarlet: one thing i hear a lot is the fear is the college admissions process is a zero-sum game. you have international students who can pay full international tuition, where his kids in the u.s., often their families do not have enough money to even pay the full sticker price. does that fear justified that this is a zero-sum game in the u.s. and they are losing out? mr. beaton: not really in general. what tends to happen at the most competitive schools is there is a general quota on international students. typically 15% of the class maximum are international students. as an american student, you are only really competing with other american students. at some of the lower ranked schools trying to get more revenue that they are trying to crank out international student numbers, but at the most competitive schools with a stretch on college admissions is highest, you're not facing too much international competition, so that is a bit of a misnomer.
scarlet: let's talk about cost. some of your services -- $50 an hour for a video session -- seem kind of steep. how much are we talking about if someone signs up when they are a freshman in high school? mr. beaton: crimson is very informal. people are often paying upward .f $60,000 a year our services typically cost between $5,000 to $10,000 for an annual program with us which involves typically 100 hours of immersive support. we have seen many families opting to leave private schools and join public schools and use our services or use our service in addition to their current education program, so we are focused on return on investment. torlet: i need to ask you give me one free tip for this kids applying to school. what's the best you can offer? >> take more subject tests. many students only do two, math
and biology. many actually do more than that and we find it works quite well. scarlet: you took six. should you prioritize stem subjects or is humanity's just as good? at beaton: we find having least one humidity subject goes a long way like english or u.s. with history, but we like to see a strong selection of stem subjects and all the areas a student can do. scarlet: that is a full slate. thank you very much. ceo and cofounder of crimson education. julia: wowzers. all i can say. , trade partners promising to fight back against u.s. tariffs threatening to spark a trade war -- up next, trade partners promising to fight back against u.s. tariffs threatening to spark a trade war. this is bloomberg. ♪
julia: some of america's biggest billions ofo slap dollars in tit-for-tat tariffs after the trump administration announced earlier today it is steelng aluminum and tariffs. on whatus with details metals andoomberg's mining reporter. you just said you were not surprised. there will not be another exemption delay? to delaysdy's used with the trump administration, but this one seems to be kind of
the statement. analystso traders and wer the last couple of days, started hearing murmurs, the discussion they would just go with a tariff, it's one that has been going on in industry circles for quite some time, so when they said we're just passing a tariff on allies, i would not say the market was shocked. scarlet: having said that, he's lookingaid
forward to continuing negotiations. he said there are other issues that need to be resolved. what is he referring to? >> this could be a bit of a mover, part of a playbook from the bush administration 2002 when they just went in and passed steel tariffs across the board, and they went on for a few months where the industry was upset, people were not too happy, and they said retroactively, we can go back and change things, and ultimately, they just scrapped the darn thing in the first place. joe: some of these announcements, we do stories about some company and they had a shipment coming in and at the last second, they cancel it or tell the truck to hurry up. was there anything like that this time, or has it cleared up enough that no one was in the situation? joe: at some level, everybody in the market who was by you expected this could happen. when we were looking at trade negotiations in march when the first announcement came out that they were going to pass tariffs, that's where you saw the discussion where if it's metal, it has to turnaround. consumers were smart enough to realize another deadline was coming up and if you were trying to ship something under the deadline, you might be running into what happened, but also, they could do a retroactive tariff, so you are not necessarily benefiting from that in the first place. julia: left in the boat floating , as you mentioned a couple of days ago. is there any lasting damage if they unwind this? lasting damage is what happened at the time. you upset a lot of customers. this was a different time for the steel industry, a much
larger number of american companies that were battling. now you have a much smaller number. they have in consolidated. circumstances were very different. if your question is will there be lasting damage from this -- julia: even if ultimately this does not take place. >> i don't know, and i think that is what everybody's looking at now. trump has finally put this into motion. let's let the market work itself out. scarlet: of course, these are tariffs on our allies. we also can say there are countries that are exempt from the terrorists. talk about what they agreed to and if that could be a template for how europe, canada, mexico resolving differences. andt has been the back forth. you have argentina and brazil agreeing to a certain level of quota. i was a big thing. canadians said we would not accept a quota. europeans set legally they cannot. if they can or cannot legally is
still up for debate. i even heard one source tell me recently they would actually prefer that canadians just take the tariff and would be a bit disappointed if they agree to some sort of quota. it is just so much going on in this market, all the way down to just the general politics of it, right? : we're going to get these retaliatory tariffs. everyone is going to do their thing. do people expect the spiral, or could it just be we did this, they did that -- scarlet: net-net nothing. >> the reaction by trudeau today was very much in equal retaliation. scarlet: dollar for dollar they said. >> that's bringing up the question going on in the markets now, which is how long will these tariffs stay in place? you want to retaliate as an ally of the united states and do something that might put you in worse standing, so i think these of the questions you guys are asking that we need to start
figuring out moving from this day forward. julia: proportionate response, but what a waste to trade negotiations to be slapping tariffs left on the right, and center. scarlet: it makes for an interesting dynamic. thank you very much. fantastic work. joe: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trade. this is bloomberg. ♪
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" a decline in u.s. stocks, the fourth in five days, but stocks closed off their lows. don't miss this -- an exclusive interview with st. louis fed president james bullard. joe: and there was some sort of update on the labor market coming out? the jobs report coming out in 8:30. scarlet: it's only the jobs report. for "what'd you miss?" luber technology" is up next. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ two, down, back up!
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♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." next hour, thee trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the european union. a move condemned by america's closest allies. what it make -- means for talks with china and global technology. arm is rolling out a new version of its most popular chip designs. will they shake up the semiconductor industry? we will hear from the ceo. amazon dominates e-commerce