tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 10, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
betty: 24 hours to go, president trump is in singapore. he says he will know within seconds if the summit will succeed. kim jong-un also here. you lost balance of the western investment, giving up the nuclear bargaining chip. haidi: the g7 ends in disarray with hopes under attack. washington says canada is dishonest and weak. the summit, the fallout, crucial
central bank decisions. hello from sydney. this is a break australia, two hours away from the open of asia's worst major markets. past 6:00 in singapore. looking ahead to the much-anticipated meeting of president trump and jim. good morning, the spotlight for the international stage the next couple of days. will this be the week that changes history and shifts the diplomacy map in this part of the world as the leaders meet for this unprecedented face-off? we heard from trump leading up to this, saying it is a one-time shot for peace. we will see if this pays off. haidi: and what is interesting to know if he comes to singapore in a great mood despite almost breaking the g7 over the weekend , a weekend of diplomacy that
ended with a pretty aggressive comments from his cabinet. is this posturing with his top advisers saying the president ? nnot afford to look weak is it just rhetoric to strengthen his bargaining? we will have to wait and see. look how the market is. we did have them hanging onto that friday afternoon optimism, all the major indices in the u.s. ending in positive territory with the dow one of the top gainers. we had that resurgent rally in tech last week. we are setting up for hours of headlines, not just for geopolitics but central banks as well. the bank of japan, the world most powerful central banks meeting this week. this is how it is shaping up here. australia is close for the queen's birthday holiday. we have the s&p trading a little lower, .2%. in new zealand. that is the best market this year, the kiwi dollar at 70.20.
the aussie dollar here. let's get to top stories. we will go to our chief north asia correspondent in singapore. set the scene for us. what are we looking at? stephen: what we are looking at behind me is the summit location. we are down on the island. the summit is not today but tomorrow. we are leading up to it. the leaders are here in singapore. we have donald trump at the shangri-la hotel and kim jong-un at the nearby saint regis hotel. not a lot of news on their schedules today. what we know is donald trump will be down in the afternoon to prepare for the summit that starts at 9:00 a.m. the philippines ambassador, a key korean negotiator, will likely be meeting with north korean counterpart to get all their ducks in a row ahead of
that summit. a lot of details on today, especially the north koreans' agenda, is unknown. we don't know the daily routine, so we will have to shoot from the hip today and see what happens, but we know singapore police and authorities have not relieve you any specific roadblocks for around the hotel which is pretty much a fortress of security. we don't know his movements today. tomorrow 90 4 a.m. in the building. you can barely see behind me. the sun is coming up and 50 minutes. 50 minutes. nteresting yesterday because the leaders arrived. flight.ed kim jong-un's we don't know how he would arrive, what aircraft, but we figured out it was a chartered air china 747 that flew under a different callsign to beijing, then switched callsign's to ca61
and flew south. we have not seen him in public other than three published photographs of kim jong-un. he is already supposedly hunkering down ready for tomorrow. ahead fascinating details of this historic meeting. you spoke earlier about the police pretty much keeping quiet about what they are planning. what do you see in terms of security zones set up across singapore and in front of capello? stephen: the security in singapore has been pretty tight, but it is not oppressive. i lived in beijing a long time. when something like this happens in china, you deal the police presence. you don't necessarily see it that way overtly, but the kerry dash camera's are all rolling, and there are people everywhere. there are physical roadblocks they could enact when they need
to. when donald trump's motorcade came yesterday, there was severe traffic restrictions as w kim jong-un chairman from the airport -- coming from the airport. this morning free driving all way down to the eyelids. not much security but i will guarantee it will be tight as can be to are mourning. -- tomorrow morning. yvonne: relatively contained it seems. it is quite interesting there is very little information us journalists have. while these talks layout, what is happening today. why do you think everything is so secret are in terms of their schedules -- secretive in terms of their schedules? stephen: they want to keep it that way. we don't know when donald trump will do today other than meeting singapore for bilateral talks. kim jong-un did meet with him
yesterday. they want to keep it kind of free and easy. donald trump says he will size up kim jong-un tomorrow morning in the first few minutes, then from there they will decide how far in deep these talks are going to go, potentially into a second day, or it could end after a few minutes. the white house is keeping the schedule open so they have that flexibility. but obviously the stakes are high. yvonne: certainly. our chief north asia correspondent in santa rosa for us. we are getting more for the schedule throughout this monday morning. he will be meeting with the singapore prime minister later this afternoon around noon where he is expected to arrive at the palace, where he will speak with the pm there. that is a courtesy type of meeting as the singapore prime
minister has mentioned in the host, how important it is. he is talking about setting this up, $15 million the next couple of days, most of which is due to the security that is needed. local reports saying 5000 police officers have been deployed in certain parts of the city, not just downtown but in santa rosa as well. 2:00, he will return back to the sacred law -- the shangri-la where he will stay before he meets with his embassy staff. not a lot on the plate when it comes to kim jong-un. we are learning to see what he has to do this monday before that meeting tomorrow at the capello. the other story, the fallout from the most acrimonious g7 summit. trump talking about his trip after quebec, broad citing the traditional allies by refusing to send the end of meeting joint
statement and lashing out at the host, justin trudeau. peter navarro blamed canada for worsening trade relations. >> there is a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy with donald j trump and tries to stab him on the back. that is what bad faith justin trudeau did with that stunned press conference. yvonne: let's go over to washington now. we have not heard over -- heard anything like this talking about what came through in quebec. what does the president hope to gain by going after u.s. allies? kathleen: -- >> it is an unprecedented turn of events, going so hard after a sitting world leader. i think a lot of it may have to do with wanting to look as tough
as possible on the part of president trump before the north korea summit, before the meeting tuesday.on another part of it is sort of the continuum with his general idea of blowing up the world order, something that may play well with his political base. ironically, given. navarro and the future talked about trudeau doing a domestic political stunt, to some extent what trump is doing is talking to his base and doing a domestic political stunt of his own. he has got a narrative going. he has talked number of times about canada and how they run a big trade surplus with the u.s., which i don't think is accurate. and to another extent canada is so reliant on trading with the u.s. the u.s. is their biggest trading partner. putting pressure on canada,
president trump may think they could be the first domino to fall in his effort to put theica first and return manufacturing base. there is a lot going on we don't know about. yvonne: it wasn't just peter navarro that spoke up. we heard from larry kudlow saying canada stabbed the u.s. in the back. >> you really kind of stabbed us in the back. he actually, you would what, he did a great disservice to the whole g7. >> trudeau? >> yes. they were united in the g7. they came together. yvonne: it seems like we have got to renew trade frictions again. what does it mean for nafta? ros: there is one thing we don't know within the trump administration, how one faction is playing another.
you have peter navarro, very hard-line person on trade and larry kudlow we used to be the consummate free trader when he was on television. you have robert lighthizer the trade representative and steve mnuchin and wilbur ross. there is a lot of different viewpoints. supposedly according to the canadian minister for foreign affairs, she spoke to light heiser, spoke to him at the g7 meeting, and she said in quebec today she would speak to him today. it could be sort of more talks and better relations going on behind the scenes than you would think. definitely seems like canada is trying to stand firm on this. canadians are the nicest people like everybody thinks. i believe it is true. they burned a line in the sand with this.
does this blowup the nafta talks ? it is too early to tell, and we have had very conflicting statements from within the administration and trump himself really for weeks and months about what will happen with nafta over the next few months. we are going to have to leave it there, ros krasny in washington. certainly quite a lot of upheaval in this g7 set of negotiations. let's get you to first word news with ramy inocencio. ramy: china has reaffirmed its claims to be a free-trade leader , criticizing what president xi jinping called selfish shortsighted policies. speaking at the shanghai corporation, his message was in disarray to the g7 summit in quebec. make inthe world must the rules of the world trade organization, support will to lateral trade and build an open economy.
inflation expanded more than expected in china's factories driven by higher prices for crude oil and metal. wholesale inflation jumped over 4% in may, but it was 3.3% overall this year, almost half of last year. china's consumer price index climbed this month, touching the median forecast. -- matching the median forecast. italy has no intention of leaving the eurozone. the -- the new government said they .ill not dump the currency the coalition says it wants to boost structural reforms and investment rather than increase spending that critics said would break new rules. bitcoin fell the most in three months at the south korean crypto exchange said it had been hacked. this brings losses to more than 50%, four times bigger than ethereum and ripple.
they are reviewing their systems, and cryptocurrencies are being stored in a cold wallet. a statement is the only content available on the exchange's homepage. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ramy inocencio. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: later on this hour, more from the singapore summit. we will talk to the former australian prime minister about what he is a acting from this historic event. -- he is expecting from this historic event. haidi: gordon chang said the summit could entrench crim -- the grip on power. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
this trump-kim leadership summit on tuesday in singapore. calm ahead of super tight security in the historic talks taking place. the top three central banks in the world out with their decisions as well. most important year -- week of the year for investors. i am haidi lun. yvonne: i am yvonne man in singapore. you are watching daybreak australia. there is one story here. in the midst of all the central bank action, it is the lion city. the president meeting for those historic talks, the first time a sitting u.s. president has met a leader of north korea. what can we realistically expect at the capello hotel? let's begin to discuss that with gordon chang.
he joins us from new york on this sunday. thank you for joining us. given all the anticipation and build up of this event, the expectations are certainly sorry, but we get little information about what is going to be playing out. have you seen anything like this? gordon: we have not. this is historic because it is the first time a sitting president has met a north korean leader. there were expectations if you go back a month or so ago that the north koreans would commit to giving up their weapons. since then president trump has lowered expectations, started talking about this as a meet and greet. maybe this is the beginning of a long process, but kim jong-un gets most of what he wants, which is legitimatization. this will bolster his rule at home. kim gets a lot on tuesday morning at 9:00. trump says he doesn't
have to do a lot of preparation leading up to this, that it comes down to attitude. he says he will the -- he will read the room. how important will the optics the? gordon: for kim they are crucial. for trump was well because he is sacked on being this great negotiator. if he does not get something, and i don't think he will, this will cause problems back home. there has been all this talk about him getting a nobel peace prize, but you only get that if you move the world to peace. if you are having a meeting with that leader of north korea, that is great, but it doesn't advance things. we will see how far he gets. they have been downplaying expectations. that is where we will end up. amy and great. -- a meet and greet. meet andf it is just a
greet, what is the likely outcome? are we getting closer to breaking the gap? gordon: i don't think so. there was a time when u.s. officials were saying if kim was not going to give firm commitments on dismantlement of this program that there wasn't going to be a summit. that was i think a resolute and good position largely because once kim walked out with those photographs, he has gotten a lot of what he needs already. his incentives for dealing with trump have declined. the u.s. has a lot of leverage we can put on both north korea and its major power sponsors, russia and china, but that means is workingrump uphill. you don't want to be in that position especially if you don't have to be. it is only the north koreans who have been making concessions. at this, if we make a large concession and may not get anything for it, that is the concern among many people watching the summit.
haidi: that is what most of the skeptical points of view going into the summit is, that kim has not had to give up anything to get to this point. in the start of a few months he has gone from being an international pariah to almost statesman like. does that seem right to you the way this has managed to play out? gordon: in a way it is hideous because he runs the worst regime on earth by almost any metric. it is the worst human rights violator. it is at the bottom of all the tables. he is awful. but the point is the optics over the last couple of weeks have changed because he is going to have a meeting with trump. he is going to meet vladimir putin. he has seen xi jinping twice. he has met the singapore prime minister. the list goes on and on. you even have bashar al-assad, the syrian dictator.
so jim has reached out to -- kim has reached out to a lot of countries. they could get sanctions relief without the u.s. the u.s. can turn around and white at countries that break sanctions, but that means trump will have to exercise political will. that means we are going to have to exert diplomacy to cut the links between the world and kim jong-un if he doesn't give us commitments, which is the point of this summit and not as critical. argument toere an be made for the positive reinforcement by allowing china into the wto in the hopes it will improve their behavior, given the legitimize nation? is that reasonable? gordon: not with regard to north korea becausegordon: as we have seen with china, the example you theiriven, the wto,
behavior has deteriorated with xi jinping. the way the chinese approach these things is not to reciprocate generosity but to press the advantage. the chinese do that, but the north koreans are masters of that technique. giving kim jong-un a big concession is nice, and we would like to have him reciprocate but in all probability he will not. if he does not, it is not the end of the world because we do have the tools to reach out and impose costs on countries that deal with north korea, but we are ending up exerting diplomatic pressure and resources to do something we may not have had to do in the first place. this is very high risk diplomacy. president trump says he is a great negotiator. one of the principles of negotiation is you get something for a concession. right now it doesn't look like we will get that. china. you mentioned what is beijing thinking now?
do they stand to gain or lose more? gordon: better relations between the u.s. and north korea is a big loss for china especially if trump is able to do something which nobody thinks he can do which is to woo north korea away, much like nixon wooed china away from the soviet union. what that would do is undercut beijing's narrative that they are the next global hegemon. what it would mean is there only formal military ally has defected to the united states some of the country china sees as its adversary. even if trump let north korea with their missiles -- that would be worse for china because they would have a hostile state on their border that would be a threat to china. so president trump, if you want to be, can be cynical and say, i will not denuclearize you. i will turn you.
you will defect from your , north korea. that is a world of hurt for china. that is a debacle for chinese diplomacy. yvonne: what if the talks backfire? what if trump walks out? gordon: he goes back to his maximum pressure campaign. the wall street journal reported administration sources believe u.s. and you and sanctions have cut by about half the flow of international payments to north korea. they have another 50% that we can work on, and there is a lot of money going into north korea. we know where it is coming from, china, russia and africa. also we can go after the chinese banks that have been handling north korea's money. it appears all four of the so-called big for banks of china have been handling north korea's money. that makes them violators of u.s. federal law.
that would permit us to declare the money laundering concerns, cut them off on their dollar accounts. that would be a disaster for the chinese banking system, economy and maybe even for the political system. there is a lot of tools president trump has, and does he have the motivation to use them? we have not had to do that because we have been hopeful of a deal with north korea. if there is one, we can ignore chinese and russian violations, but if there isn't, it means we have to go against moscow and beijing. with the u.s. being in the position it is at the center of the global financial system, we can do a lot of damage to their economies. , do youes or no answer see a united korea peninsula soon? gordon: i don't, but it is possible because moon jae-in is a korean nationalist, he wants to have a united korea.
a.m. init is 6:30 singapore. we are here at the lion city with a little over 24 hours to go before the historic summit between president trump and kim. both men arrived sunday. we saw some fanfare. now. called -- calm much at stake in the next 48 hours. i am yvonne man. haidi: i am haidi lun. you are watching daybreak australia. let's get you to first word news with ramy inocencio in new york. ramy: good morning. president trump and kim jong-un are insight for -- are in singapore.
they will be meeting at the secluded capello hotel on the island on tuesday. nuclear weapons are top of the agenda of course. president trump will insist the rth agree to dismantle its program while kim will demand the u.s. remove its own weapons from the region. the trump administration is stepping up its attack on canada, saying justin trudeau is heading to hell for crossing president trump. peter navarro said a nafta deal would have been agreed by now if canada had spent less time lobbying congress. trump left the g7 with a stream of tweets attacking trudeau and threatening tariffs on automobiles. >> there is a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad faith diplomacy with president donald j. trump, then tries to stab him in the back on the way out the door. that is what bad faith justin trudeau did with that stunt press conference. ramy: switzerland has rejected a
plan to change the way banks lend money in what is seen as a victory for central bank governor thomas jordan. he has been a prominent critic of a proposal opponents said would make switzerland is attractive. this option would have ended the system of allowing only the s&p to raise money and allow checking to be backed by assets with direct claim on the monetary authority. the stock exchanges of singapore and india have begun proceedings to settle the dispute over nifty based derivatives. the counsel for the national stock exchange says the hearings began saturday and will continue through this week. they are trying to stop a singapore exchange from launching derivative products that could replace nifty contracts. -- nse contracts. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. inocencio, and this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: thank you so much. let's get a quick update on your markets. quiet beginning. australian opened -- australian markets are closed for the queen's birthday. zealand, risk aversion, white 3% lower -- .3% lower. a huge week of event risk for investors, not just geopolitics with the same it -- that summit in singapore but three central banks meeting, each with a different set of challenges. dollar-yen 109.47. we will see risk aversion, but that is not playing out in gold. sterling 134.10, seeing the first decline in a few days. big week for bond investors. $1 billion, three-year, 10 year, 30 year due out. $125 billion of bill that hit
the market, so appetite test for investors with volumes in supply overwhelmed the bond market. it is a reminder all three u.s. major markets closing in friday. territory the stage is set for the historic summit between trump and kim jong-un. optimists are imagining the opportunities that could be opened up if sanctions are eased . what would happen if north korea was in the regional economy? reporter: three economic belts linking the koreas with china and russia. that is how president moon wants to transform his northern neighbor. developing and improving roads to thelways is a plan east coast, west and a third in the middle. the upgraded infrastructure could help north korea realize the value of its vast mineral reserves. 200 essential resources are
estimated to be under the ground in the north, together worth in trillion.$6 gold, oil and the world's biggest rare earth deposit, crucial for high-tech gadgets. but a word of caution before potential investors become giddy with expectation. electricity says shortages, outdated facilities and other infrastructure outputes could put mine below 30%. it is a bright spot, high literacy rates, low wages basic commuter -- computer education, they see north korea becoming a oneasian tiger one-day -- day. yvonne: let's bring in our bloomberg managing editor daniel. let's talk about the reunification prospects of the north and south and also what we have seen leading up to this.
we still get little details of what will happen throughout this week. have you seen anything like this? for a: we keep waiting readout of the schedule, and we are not getting much. we have the meeting, the prime minister today. they did not say much. they thanked him for hosting the meeting. we know the u.s. and south korean officials meeting at the dnc to discuss the political statement, the joint declaration they are working on, our meeting today at another hotel in singapore here. there is a real feeling that is still hanging in the balance. trump -- we have no details on kim jong-un's movement today. trump has won meeting on the schedule. a lot of downsides today. guest: we have our next
saying this could be an opportunity for kim jong-un to propose meeting for a round of golf on this downtime on monday. you could see the leaders coming -- you rarely see them coming in so early area that talk about reunification. do we see parallels to germany, or is it different? daniel: moon went to germany last year and gave a speech about reunification, the prospect. south korea, a lot of south koreans are wary of reunifying and taking on the north, worried it will zap resources from their generation. what we have seen from kim jong-un in the past few months, him reaching out, his sister , kim over to south korea himself, we have seen his approval ratings in south korea spike. south koreans are changing their attitude towards the north.
economically, getting to the stage of reunification, we are a long way away. there is no indication that kim jong-un even wants that. or that china wants that. the buffery wants state. there is no indication tim wants to leave power, but what he wants is to be accepted as a normal country, a country that is part of the international community. yvonne: so the meeting itself is already a victory. daniel: huge victory. caseinate released a statement about his meetings with the premise or of singapore where he is very gushing about it, friendly relations between the countries. opss giving these photo with the prime minister of singapore, a big one. it shows he is a responsible member of the international community, one that he hopes to be trusted with nuclear weapons.
haidi: its house like the atmosphere is positive -- sounds like the atmosphere is positive. it really comes after this g7 weekend which was pretty disruptive on account of president trump. yvonne: we are talking about how this is coming off a disruptive g7. i know there are audio issues area what happens now? this is a time when trump left quebec, tweeting about calling justin trudeau a liar. where does that leave the g six plus one? daniel: j six plus one is certainly in disarray. it is hard to tell what it says for meeting. thtrump team will say trudeau made trump look weak, so he had to do this to show kim he means business. on the other hand there is concerns kim might see this and be like, how can i trust any
deal i strike that trump won't just fly home and changes might with a tweet? a strange aspects. kim is already worried. if he gives up his weapons, can he be sure the u.s. will not support a regime overthrow in 10 years? yvonne: giving away the only bargaining chip he has. daniel: he is paranoid. the constant flip-flopping back and forth, striking a deal, pulling it back, setting up the meeting, canceling it, putting ,t back, all of these things you know, go to the uncertainty of it. for kim it is also opportunity. trump is a dealmaker, and the north koreans seep somebody like, ok, we can do business with this guy, more than we could have done with previous presidents and future navy.
-- maybe. haidi: thank you so much, our asian government editor with yvonne in singapore to look ahead to this key summit. let's look at the diplomacy involved with the former australian prime minister. he joins us from guangzhou. great to have you. they will be talking about the kimk legitimization of who has gone from being an isolated leader of north korea to almost statesmanlike in his conduct in the photo opportunities. is this a master class for some of these isolated international leaders? -- therere not really are not many international leaders left who are isolated. in has been top of the class isolation. this is an evolving reality. what might appear to be a diplomatic triumph today for the
north koreans and quickly dissipate depending on the outcome of this summit in singapore. i believe this will be determined how we define what we .ill hear a lot about, cbid comprehensive, verifiable, dismantling. if an agreement is to be struck on those principles, it will be a key question of how that is enforced over time. it is a massive technical challenge apart from a political and foreign-policy challenge. that will determine if mr. kim stays in the global fabric or if he is brought into the open. the problem is they haven't decided on a definition of denuclearization. we have heard reports say president trump has said he doesn't feel like he needs to prepare for this. lots of reports about how the
state department had is so unprepared. you have been a korean diplomats. does this concern you, the level of lack of preparedness into this historic meeting? kevin: if you come from a professional diplomatic background, this is a unique set of circumstances. let's go back to basics here. president donald trump does not come from a diplomatic background. it is what it is. that is who he is. that is how he got into this summit. he came out one afternoon in the white house after a brief meeting with the south korean national security adviser and says, it is on. that was without consultation with his senior staff. that is how he managed to kill this summit in the first place. it is not possible diplomacy network here. to be fair to president trump,
his unique style of which i think is along these lines, have a meeting, shake the tree as hard as you can and see what you can get on the denuclearization front, they make judgments whether it is acceptable or not. that is how he approaches this. it may not be international guidebooks of diplomacy, but we will know in 24 hours whether this will have a future or not. the one encouraging thing i see, against what we saw in earlier american positioning, is they see this as the first stage in a longer stage process over time your that reflects the strategic reality on the ground, which is you have a lot of nukes, missiles, different categories, nuclear scientific research facilities, so this will be a complex negotiation over time. thene: what do we make of
comments from peter navarro and larry kudlow? basically claiming that the promised her canada, justin trudeau, he is stirring the pot, making the u.s. look weak leading up to these negotiations ? is that a fair statement? kevin: setting back from the cut and thrust, there are two major countries divided by the outcome of the g7. one is russia, one china. russia is delighted because trump declared it would be good to have russia back in. as a consequence what you had is regular unity between the g six and china against the united states on the question of the trade measures, which the president has adopted on steel and aluminum and a range of other products in the area. , theg the west in disarray g six, is exactly what china and
.ussia want to see they will be very happy about the outcome. jong-un, he has traveled quite a long way to get here to singapore, 3000 miles from home. it is the where do you see has traveled since he took power. he is essentially a fish out of water. how does that change his approach? kevin: that is a fascinatingkevin: question because he will not have been counted -- twiceping who he has met in china comes straight out of classical diplomatic tradition ,nd therefore the north associated with high-level meetings. meeting president trump will not be like that. i know from a comment from president trump overnight that he will know in the first minute whether a deal can be had or not. flew in this
morning. they will be speaking about how they will deport themselves in the meeting. it will be a high-stakes game in terms of personal diplomacy and chemistry. he mentioned his travel abroad for the first time any length. that is true. singapore is a great venue for having this meeting. on top of that i know kim jong-un's mode of transport to singapore has been with air china. the chinese are very keen to continue to reinforce a message through the symbols to the international diplomatic community and the americans that kim jong-un is their ally and nobody else's. if y will make any strategic moves, he will do so in concert with beijing and not sell china's strategic interests down the tube. that is the message being sent. as always.easure
president of the asian society policy institute and former prime minister of australia joining us from guangzhou. you can catch up on all of this going on. go to tliv to get commentary and analysis from bloomberg expert editors. plenty of analysis. that is all coming up. something of an understatement, we are in for a hectic few days. bank of america calling it the most important week of the year for investors. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
global economies' most important week of the year. charts.cencio has we are not short for headlines and events risk everywhere we look. ramy: there will be a deluge of eco-data. behind me, these are some of the highlights. june 11, local time, machinery orders coming out. we are expecting a surprise to the upside. june 12, the u.s. cpi, also a little higher. june 14, china's industrial production. this could be a mixed or murky picture. let's flip up the board. here is my first chart. you can look at these on the gtv low -- gtv library. japanese machine orders right now negative. we have not been positive the last year or so, but we are getting this to flip positive year on year and month on month. month on month expected at 3.8% and year on year at 2.4%.
this is lending some credit to what analysts are saying in terms of a possible better growth in the fourth -- second quarter for japan. cpi,ew chart now, u.s. take a look at the right-hand side. looking at 0.2%. we expect that to come in for the was recent number. also of course as we look at the fomc meeting, bloomberg economics is saying whatever that number comes out, don't expect it to change anything because that is set in stone. looking at china, china's growth, looking at china's growth last 12 years, this is what it means, slowing growth, industrial output, the same as last month. fixed asset investments also. onight spot, retail sales. that might surprise to the upside. yvonne: thank you. as you mentioned, inflation
growth, those are the key things to look out for. the central banks have that on the radar as they prepare for crucial policy decisions. let's get to kathleen hays, the global economics and policy editor. let's start with the fed kicking off the central bank's best on wednesday. kathleen: a rate hike, the second one this year considered a done deal. inflation has risen. it is near the target. retail sales are rebounding. lower unemployment, all expected to support the rate hike. the fed is expected to move slowly because they want to make targetflation at the 2% is sustainable. let's go to want to -- go to one of our charts. this is the core versus headline pce. why does the fed want to make ? re that that pce stays at 2% for so many years it only with its target once. they want to move slowly.
this gets us to another key point. they will update their summary of economic productions -- productions. they do it every three months. this has to do with inflation, but it has to do with how many rate hikes they will forecast. two more or one more, that is the question. bloomberg economics says when they come out of that meeting, evenly divided between a total of three or four, but that could be the market mover on wednesday. there is that and then the ecb meeting thursday. officials will debate the official end of the bond buying program. how pivotal of a movement will this be? kathleen: it is a pivotal moment. this is the time to put it on the table and say, what will we do and when will we announce it? forecasts that could recover, and for the european central bank, they are
hitting their target. energy prices are part of it, but you can see this white line, 1.9%. that is it. under 2% is what the ecb targets. this is why the ecb hawks are going to argue, let's make the plan. let's make a plan to end the bond purchases in september. make the announcement that mario isghi is being cautious and expected to signal this course of action in the press conference but not putting in the policy statement. week am ating out the boj meeting right eight. weaker inflation is still way away from the 2% inflation target. does that mean a change? kathleen: what is interesting is they had a week first quarter growth. -- weak first-quarter growth. i love this chart. looking at the boj, what is on their radar screen when they say we will get inflation.
this is core cpi. it is weakening, back to 0.7%. up here, this white line is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. if you are above it, you could have bold inflation. below you can be up. -- you could speed up. people are expecting this to see inflation and japan at 1% and rising by the third quarter this year. we will see what governor kuroda says on friday. haidi: our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays for that, rounding out our massive week for investors and geopolitics, elbowing each other for headlines. bloomberg users can interact with the chart shown using gtv . there are charts featured on bloomberg television, catch up on key analysis and save the charts. that is almost it. yvonne will be staying on with ramy inocencio for daybreak
asia. you have a lot of great guests, continuing our top stories. right, d-oneis before that crucial meeting. one before that crucial meeting. what could happen when trump meets with the premise of singapore? it is a courtesy meeting. that starts to happen at noon. some professors joining us. he talked about the potential downside, seeing kim jong-un throw a curveball and reach out to trump perhaps for an impromptu meeting this monday morning. trump has talked about having someone on one time before this delegation actually meets with north korean leaders. something to watch. we have the harvard kennedy school professor joining us to talk more.
under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver.
yvonne: we're a day away from the summit between trump and kim jong-un. history,rge of president trump is here in singapore. he said he will know in a few seconds if the summit will succeed. kim jong-un is also here. ahead.n exciting day i'm in new york where it is just past 7:00 p.m. on sunday night. canada is says dishonest and