tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg June 22, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
balance of power, with an intersection of politics and the economy. david: president trump threatens cars -- tariffs on cars imported from europe. time, that is what president trump cause efforts of republican lawmakers to enact immigration laws. they should wait until after the elections he says. the supreme court rules the police have to get a warrant to have access to information about where you use your cell phone at what promises to be one of the most important privacy decisions in recent years. shery: moore terra -- more terrorist threat from present --
tariffs threats from president trump, he said that based on the tariffs and trade barriers long placed on the u.s. and it's great companies and workers by the european union, if they are not soon broken down and move -- and removed, we will place a 20% tariff on all of their cars coming into the u.s., bill them here! declinedcarmakers have on the news. this is not only about foreign cars. it is about car dealerships that employ more than one million workers. tell us about the impact on the u.s. >> it would be a big negative for auto dealers. they are a noisy constituency and everywhere. they have a lot of sway in washington. their israeli a congressman or
congresswoman -- there is rarely a congresswoman a congressman without a view car dealers in a district. dealers our district -- in the district. dealers in the district. this is effectively a tax. to some extent, the automakers would perhaps try to eat some of the costs but would have to pass this on to the consumer. it would increasing -- increase prices of vehicles and hurt sales. david: which vehicles? a lot of the imports from germany are more upscale and is that president trump's base? >> to that point, the german carmakers make a lot of suvs in the u.s. it would not have a big impact their but it would on sedans. you see high-end sedans from mercedes and bmw. some vw models but they are down
in chattanooga and in mexico. this would have an impact on the high-end. perhaps not kidding his base -- hitting his base. you have a commerce department investigation going on, the same one used to justify the steel and aluminum tariffs. the suggestion at this point is that there is no look into narrowing which country we would limit the investigation to in terms of which auto imports are posing a risk to the u.s. goes thenvestigation way the steel and aluminum investigation went, where everybody is subject to tariffs, that would hit trump's base where you would see widespread increasing prices and challenging the detroit automakers that make a substantial number of vehicles all over the place, mexico,
canada. ford is bringing vehicles from india and has plans to bring them from china. they: is the reason president says he is doing this is because he wants more automakers to build in the united states, but i was surprised to hear that bmw is the u.s. top auto exporter. how much is being built in the united states? is just aboutrket 50-50 in terms of where the vehicles are made. that are sold here. you have a little bit more vehicles imported into this market that are bought, according to lmc automotive here you see an expectation that will be on the rise. a result be primarily of the growth plan for mexico. you saw a lot of criticism of that on the campaign trail i donald trump. -- by donald trump.
backed away from that and you heard donald trump talking about how fiat chrysler will move truck production from mexico to michigan but on until 2020. meantime, a lot of automakers are expanding in mexico because it is a low-cost market for them to build. until nafta is torn up, it makes economic sense to build their instead of the u.s. david: thank you. for more on trade and immigration, let's bring in our opinion columnist ramesh ponnuru from washington. let's start with trade and then go to immigration. on trade, the president said, if they do not drop the tariffs, we will impose these, on what authority, national security? the investigation in the department of commerce? >> president trump has been
fuzzy on the rationale for his trade moves. out, he isted talking about this as a negotiation. if they move on tariffs, we will not impose them. part of the law his administration has been using, section 232, is a national security-based part of the law and not about what the other countries tariffs are. what our security needs are. that is regarded by most experts as a rationalization. the idea we have a national security threat because of bmw imports is far-fetched. but that is the area of the law they are using. it affects whether we will prevail at the wto if people bring challenges against this trait action. david: if they are abusing 232, -- congress is concerned with this on steel and aluminum and movements on capitol hill to curtail the president's authority on 232.
could this trigger a bipartisan effort to cut back on the president's authority? >> it would require in practice a two thirds majority of the house and the senate. likelyally overcome the presidential veto of the action restricting presidential authority over trade protectionism. first of all, you have democrats who support some of the tariffs that president trump has advocated. and a lot of republicans who are wary of crossing the president. they do not want his supporters to be mad at them. it will be hard to get the two thirds supermajority. shery: some white house officials are trying to restart talks with china. that goes against some of the trade hawks in the white house. are we seeing more consistency in what the white house is doing in terms of strategies as we get deeper into the trade disputes? seendo not think we have
much strategy with respect to trade from this administration. a strategy would require prioritizing your goals. you may decide it is more important to take on chinese mercantilism than go to war on trade with our allies in europe. if you want to take on the chinese, you may need to build a multilateral alliance with people who share our concerns about chinese mercantilism. if you want a strategy, you would get your own people on the same page, negotiating with each other before you start negotiating with other countries. not clear that has happened. shery: we are not clear where this directive came, in terms of separating children from their families at the u.s.-mexico , that, whether the policy is one of the reasoning the administration has given out on this issue. they cannot help it. it is the law.
how valid are those points? >> demonstration has given multiple and conflicting accounts of exaction on the border. inconsistent. they have said that there is no policy, they said they were forced to adopt the policy. it is clear based on the executive order that they were not forced to adopt a policy. there has been a lot of chaos and it complements -- and in confidence -- in confidence that incompetence. it was not thought through. not morally or politically or admits ratably. saidvid: the president this is not humane. we want kids to be with her parents. but we do not want to just let
people come in. is the answer to build a lot of detention facilities for the entire families to live until the legal process has run its course? , we need view is, yes better and humane family detention centers. we need to put modern -- money into processing these claims more expeditiously. .e need more legal challenges one decision from the court makes it harder to hold families together. the problem is that there are members of the administration who were not saying this is unfortunate. they were saying this is a good deterrent. john kelly said that. the attorney general said this is an important deterrent. people will not try to cross the border illegally if they understand they will be separated from their kids. rationales that are in conflict with each other. shery: thank you.
shery: this is bloomberg markets: balance of power. i am shery ahn. david: i am david westin. let's get to the first word news. >> the united nations says the president decision to stop it policy separating migrant children from the parents does not go far enough. an executive order was signed this week. families still will be detained but together. un human rights office says children should never be
detained for reasons related to their parents migration status. they are urging the u.s. to overhaul its policy. the president is warning the european union that cars are next on the tariff list. he said unless the eu removes tariffs and other various form u.s. goods soon, he will impose a 20% duty on all imported european cars. the eu retaliated for u.s. tariffs on steel and aluminum, imposing a 25% tariff on $3.3 billion worth of american products. billion worth of american products. more on the situation with roger marshall coming up. the south korean president is in moscow hoping to boost economic ties between the countries. he met with vladimir putin at the gremlin where they great to cooperate on various projects. says they hope their trade relationship would continue to expand and promised moscow what tried tomoscow whath
problems concerning north korea. it took a last met compromise with iran to get it done but opec has an agreement to boost oil production. the cartel's oil ministry agreed to an actual 600,000 there'll per day increase -- barrel per day increase, one have of 1% of global supply. -- one half of 1% of global supply. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: first it was steel and aluminum imported from around the world and then products from canada and out automobiles from europe that could be subject to tariffs. is someone who could have his constituents affected by this. republican roger marshall serves on the agricultural and small business committee and comes to us from the capital today. thank you for joining us.
at one point do all of these tariffs which seem to come in to play everyday, are they felt by your constituents in kansas, and do they get concerned? >> this has been going on since february in kansas. the impact of these tariffs are impacting my constituency right now and americans have seen the result. the price of washington -- watching the scenes when up 17 -- washing machines when up 17%. price ofweek, the sorghum drop a dollar a bushel. david: what is the solution? are they listening to you? can we change the course? >> he is listening to us and he called me on the phone about a week and a half ago. he wanted me to communicate that he loves farmers and he knows they are getting the short end of the stick and there will be
bleeding for a couple of months but hang in there. i am trying to say to the administration, we need nafta and done sooner than later. we are facing an uphill battle with china because of the intellectual property threats. shery: nafta has concerns for farmers. canada protects their gary market. -- gary market. -- dairy market. is it worth it? nico: -- >> we have reached our export -- exports since nafta. there is a lot at risk. there is a path to help us all when. we have -- win. the mexican embassy is motivated to get a deal done, maybe canada is not as motivated but an opportunity for a win. it is important to get it done quickly.
so many uncertainties in agriculture right now, 50% of our income commodities that generational lows and we need relief and that is the quickest path to release. reflief?e -- shery: how quickly? >> yesterday, we need nafta finished yesterday. the president says he would not make a bad deal. he understands our pain. where harvesting week -- at. the price of soybeans and corn went down this week almost one dollar per bushel. prices are falling. it is generational lows for income and agricultural. there is waiting across the country. -- bleeding across the country. david: this allusion seems to be more trade but it seems the path will lead to less trade.
it may be more fair but less trade. >> you make a great point. it has been a horrible roller coaster ride for myself and my constituents. the present -- president rob looked -- promises better trade deals. i am counting on them to get the nafta treaties done sooner to stop the bleeding. there is a $10 billion export outside to china for agriculture alone. i think the president has goals the same as mine but we are feeling pain right now. david: another subject very prevalent across the country, immigration. we have had this tragedy of children separated from their parents and the president says you are wasting your time to try to deal with immigration soon. where are you and kansans on this issue of immigration? >> we got good polling back from
our constituents who support my position that we need a strong border security, first and foremost, our top priority, strong border security. they want us to fix daca. guestworker visa is the biggest problem in kansas, 6000 daca recipients but 70,000 people who will be impacted by an agriculture guestworker visa which impacts the economy. we spent 2.5 hours yesterday as a republican conference having a disagreement that it was -- but a good disagreement and a good discussion. we are working hard to make sure we have the agricultural visa next in the bill we will pass next week. shery: if you get that passed, would it fix the problem of the farmers facing shortages of the workforce? a lot of them and point people who are not legally documented -- and a lot of them employees people who are not legally documented? >> a step in the right direction , you're right, the united
states has 6 million open jobs. no laborers left the economy is so strong. this is a step in the right direction and would move some processes to the usda and make the entire system more efficient. shery: given the challenges farmers are facing, how important will be farm bill that passed yesterday be? >> incredibly important to farmers and americans. we are blessed to live in a country where we only spent 6% of our income in grocery and part of the reason is the farm belt we have had the last several decades which decreases is finallys -- it important to the consumers and more so to the farmers, agriculture producers, who rely on the farm bill for five years of certainty. this is a huge step forward yesterday for this country. david: they got to the house but what about the senate? >> it is an uphill battle in the senate but have confidence in senator pat roberts, he will
have several tricks up his sleeve and we will get a bill through the senate next week. it will not line up perfectly with hours. that gives us july and august to conference it and get us -- get it to the president in time before the farm bill finishes in september -- december. is roger marshall, a republican from kansas. still ahead, the supreme court's privacy ruling and how it may affect phone companies. this is bloomberg. ♪
nine sessions, relief over the possibility fears of a potential trade war. in is down for a second week a row as of the s&p 500 and nasdaq, down for one week. not a second week. energy is the top sector for the s&p 500 and here is why. 4.6%, best since november of 2016 when opec announced a big supply cut. today, a deal for a supply boost, oil rallying. this is moving right through the energy complex. at opec look production. you can view this using gtv. it is declining and there could be tension as supply is boosted. stay tuned for what it could do to oil prices. president trump tweeting about the possibility of a 20% tariff
on vehicles sent to the u.s. from the eu and automakers are flat. we have some declines. someone said these companies should be insulated from this. tesla is down on the day, down present. -- down 3%. barclays questioning present. whether they can hit the 5000 model 3 goal. shery: abigail doolittle, thank you. coming up, we will talk immigration. this is bloomberg. ♪ two, down, back up!
that's why xfinity mobile can be included with xfinity internet which could save you $400 or more a year. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call, or visit a store today. is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i'm shery ahn. is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i'm shery ahn.
david: i'm david westin. for bloomberg first word news, we turn to mark crumpton. tellingesident trump is republicans in congress to quit wasting their time on immigration bills. the president says there is no sense in trying to pass a bill until the party has a filibuster proof majority in the senate. meantime the house has delayed a vote on immigration measures until next week. one bill lost in the house yesterday. the u.s. supreme court has increased digital privacy rights the justices ruled law enforcement officials need a warrant to get mobilephone tower records that show someone's location over an extended period. the ruling could have a far-reaching impact. prosecutors seek phone location data from telecom companies in thousands of cases a year. in malaysia, the prime minister will try to recoup $4.5 billion that was potentially lost through the troubled investment firm one mdb. interview -- in
an interview from kuala lumpur. the money was not theirs. they are not making any claim. we know that the money is ours, from one mdb. we have to prove ownership of that money. clashes flared up in kashmir today, killing six people. at least 20 others were injured. protesters were demanding an end of indian rule in kashmir and blocked a major highway. military troops responded with shotgun pellets and tear gas. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. we see and hear about immigration every single day,
and we struggle with the difficult issues it raises, so it pays to remember how much of our country has been built on the foundation of immigration. andrew tisch and mary skafidas are the authors of a new book which collects essays from 72 prominent americans about their own immigration stories. andrew is the chairman of the loews corporation and mary is the head of investors. andrew is the chairman ofyou co, andrew. what did you discover, what was the through-line? we discovered everybody came to america for a reason, whether they were fleeing something, seeking something, but they all came because they sensed america was a place where they could express themselves freely, where there was great opportunity, where they could live a life that was better than the like they were living elsewhere. david: how much of it was pull, how much was push?
how many ancestors of these people came here because they wanted to come, or how much because there lies were not acceptable? >> there was a little bit of both. when you look at the book, we carve it up into chapters based on the reasons they came here. moreame for love, some seeking better opportunity, some were fleeing. shery: i love how the individual stores were actually pretty concise. it was very easy to read. your family, mary, came from greece. where you see what is happening right now with so much division in culture, ethnicity, race, what do they tell you? >> every day they are very thankful they made the decision to come here. those of us born here are even more thankful. whenever division and problems there are here in the u.s., greece has tenfold. and i don't have an economy that is actually working. shery: as mary mentioned, the
problems can be tenfold somewhere else but also it is a matter of fact that these divisions are not unique here in the u.s. we saw brexit, we see angela merkel potentially losing power because of immigration. this is not a uniquely american issue. it is an issue everywhere in the world but america still offers to people looking to leave were ever they are, real opportunity. it's a place where people want to come, where people want to be educated, the place where people want to work. it allows them to come in and express themselves and then let their families and friends back home know that there is opportunity here. we believe that is what is helping to drive the demand for immigration. david: that also present some challenges. book,art came from the
just so happens to come from like bloomberg. mike bloomberg. national security demand we protect our borders but that does not preclude a reasonable and generous immigration policy. that sets him the dilemma that even the president is struggling with now. you cannot let everyone to come and but you want a generous and fair policy david how do we get that? >> that is up to the legislators to figure out. we don't offer the solution in the book but rather, we want to sensitize everybody to the fact, with notable exceptions, everyone in this country came from somewhere else. there are plenty of ways to solve the problems but congress has to get together and sit down and talk seriously and not way politics on this, but rather, come up with solutions. we have come up with solutions for 241 years.
it is important that they really come up with a solution at this point. shery: you say that people come from different places but is that mentality changing now that you have these new generations? mary, you were born in the united states. as we go forward in time and we had newer generations, is that what is giving the push back toward immigration? they don't remember that their ancestors all arrived from outside. >> we have always been someone xena phobic in this country. we just celebrated the 100th anniversary of the immigration act of 1918, which was designed to keep asians out of this country. we have always had a certain amount of xenophobia in this country but we have always given people the opportunity to come, whether legally or illegally -- and we have had a legal immigration in this country for many decades before this crisis.
but we always managed to incorporate those people as they became more and more productive citizens and moved up the economic ladder. david: at the same time, in my lifetime, this is the most hostility against immigration. when you are part of the leadership of a very successful company, particularly in the are aath of 2008, there lot of people who feel like there is not enough for them economically. it is hard to say that there is not enough for people economically and we are at 3% unemployment. the fact is we need immigrants. we have more jobs and people. immigrants have put a lot forth to war the economic fiber of the u.s. we just need to remember that. have threerget we ponzi schemes in this country. social security, medicare, medicaid.
we need additional employment to help fund that. social security was never intended to pay greens fees but we have not cut the amount of money we pay out in social security. i get a social security check. that's crazy. we need more and more employment. the only way we are going to get more employment -- because there are jobs here. we have 2.9 percent to 3.1% unemployment. that is pretty full employment . plus, you have interest rates starting to creep up. we are not getting the productivity gains otherwise. you need the immigration. david: a lot for congress to handle between entitlements and immigration. great to have you here, andrew tisch, loews cochairmen, mary skafidas, the loews investor
david: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i'm david westin. shery: i'm shery ahn. opec and its allies have reached a deal to boost oil production starting next month. the deal is a big win for saudi arabia and russia and a loss for iran which had advocated against raising output. we caught up with the iranian oil minister on the sidelines of the meeting. the first time i said we had no difficulty to remove the
oversupply from the market because we agreed at the end of 2016 to remove 1.2 millions per barrel a day from the level of -- total level of production from opec and divide that between the opec member countries. may, we had 150% which means we have over 50% over compliance. we agreed before to do over 100% compliance, not more. confirm andd to emphasize on the last resolution recommend to6 and
the opec member countries to adhere to 100% over compliance. >> many say this was a victory for saudi arabia who was under ,ressure from the united states this increase, as you describe it, the decrease in cuts. the you think this is a victory for the saudi's? >> officially, they did not say so but based on the reports we , this was pressure on opec and made some member countries. it is a strange thing for me that president trump put pressure on some opec member to limit their productions and impose sanctions
on countries like iran. opec wants to remedy its action against the market. i believe president trump is doing against market fundamentals, against the free market. it is not a benefit to even the consumers. the higher price is because of the actions of president trump. >> following the meeting, he tweeted again about opec and high oil prices. what is your response to him? is anhink opec shows it , not adent organization part of the secretary of energy of the united states. statesery bad for united and opec members to funnel the
instructions of the united states. >> what is the expectation for export losses following the sanctions? >> we try to preserve our production. producee many ways to oil and export it, but i cannot explain more. >> do you have any forecast that you are looking at, a range? >> we are trying. exact.can forecast the >> our customer still buying iranian crude? >> some of them. some of them have difficulty because of the pressure of the united states for money , transfer of insurance. >> who stopped buying?
shell,example, total, some others. >> what happens in november? we are planning to resist and find ways to preserve our exports. >> right now, how are you managing this with your partners, are they asking for waivers from the united states? i don't believe they can receive waivers from the united states. we will find some other way. >> is the iranian government going to try to negotiate with trump to get sanctions lifted? >> it is not a matter of the oil market. from iran to turkey, the turkish presidential elections take place this sunday. recep tayyip erdogan is hoping
infrastructure projects and economy stronger than when he began his tenure will win voters to his side but some are worried about what they see as a power grab. james hertling in istanbul. abolished theally post of prime minister, so if mr. erdogan wins the election, how much more power would he get? >> a significant amount more power. certainly -- it is called an executive presidency, so of course, he has to have -- his party needs to win parliament. assuming parliament is held by his ak party, he has pretty much untrammeled power. virtually no checks to that. shery: investors have been jittery about the elections. we have seen volatility in the lira jumping. what could be the impact on the
markets and the broader economy after the election? wins -- as you say, the lira has been all over the place. if he wins, the conventional bet is you will see a relief rally, a pop bet when you see the known quantity election. you saw that when he won the referendum last year. but that is likely to be short-lived. the economy in general will really be a wildcard. he has made no secret about the fact that he wants to take more control of monetary policy, the whole notion of an independent central bank is somewhat anathema to him. he wants to lower interest rates as a way to contain inflation. that is contrary to just about any economic orthodoxy and is one of the reasons that the lira
has weakened so much so fast this year when he made those intentions clear in an interview with bloomberg last month. the lira just fell out of bed. david: he has not made a secret about his views on monetary policy. if he wins, what are the markets expecting in terms of further reducing the interest rate? is his first call going to be to central bank governors to say, do what i say? >> that would not be a surprise. policy has been very expansionist, fiscal policy has been very expansionist, which has put pressure on the central bank to be somewhat restrictionist in its policies to contain inflation. , it's akes that call question of who he has around
him, if they can put him in a box and contain him against his instincts. we saw that kind of dynamic at play with trump and the white house in the first year. you have people like gary cohn and a charm asked her trying to contain his instincts. now it's conceivable that all of those constraints might be lifted and that call would not be a shock. shery: thank you, james hertling , in istanbul. a presidential tweet has determined our stock of the hour. bmw closing down more than 1%. at one point, hitting lows not seen since september 2017. emma chandra is here with more. the president tweeted a lot this morning, including on immigration and trade but i'm guessing it is the auto tariffs that is having an impact. emma: he said based on the tariffs and trade barriers placed on american workers by
the european trade union, it these are not removed, we will be placing a 20% tariff on all of their cars coming to the u.s.. build them here. interestingly, if you look at the bloomberg, you can see german carmakers as a whole produce more cars in the u.s. than they actually export. so the last part of that sweet did not make a huge amount of sense. nevertheless, we saw bmw paul, volkswagen and i'm there also. done right issued a profit morning because they were worried about the impact of tariffs between the u.s. and china. could looks like tariffs be coming directly to them in europe. david: we spoke to the european union officials before this came out. be put onffs were to autos and auto parts, this would be a huge escalation. the volume of trade is much higher and this would be a great
concern. europe but also the domestic industry, which would stand to lose heavily through these kinds of tariffs. david: that is interesting, the domestic industry with used to stand heavily -- would stand to lose heavily. we are definitely talking about retaliation and we have already seen the eu italian with the steel and aluminum tariffs. the president's tweet came out only a few hours after they about $3.3e tariffs, billion in goods. ain't as we say here, it over yet. the supreme court's term is just about over an earlier today brought down one of the most important decisions of the year, ruling law enforcement has to get a warrant before gaining
mobile phone records to show where a phone was used. robinson. kimberly she is reporting from the front steps of the supreme court. great to have you here. this was a 5-4 decision. what did it come down to? >> you are right, this was a split decision. one of several cases over the last couple of terms backing privacy section for cell phones. today's case involved so site location data which can be used to track your movements through the city, and in this case, the police use that information to track 127 days of the defendant's activities. the supreme court said that if you want to do that, you need a warrant. shery: would this ruling affect other precedents like dealing with financial information, banking records? >> it does have an impact on the way the court has historically looked at that kind of information. that was the basis of the four
dissenters opinions. they filed over 100 pages in that defendant did not have a reasonable expectation in these documents because they belong to third parties. historically the supreme court has said with financial documents, third parties voluntarily turned over to police, that police don't need a worn in those situations. today the supreme court said cell phones are different. in particular, chief justice roberts emphasize there are 396 cell phone accounts in the night date but only 326 people. david: is this an indication of the court more broadly will be expanding protections or is this more an instance of we are getting into the world of internet and digital and there are a lot of things we have not addressed yet? >> i think it is more of the latter. emphasized thece decision today was a narrow one and at the court will have to
continue to look at these on a case-by-case basis as it tries to address new technology. what other decisions are we waiting for from the supreme court? got word today that we will likely have a couple more opinion dates next week. we are still waiting for the court to decide the legality of president trump's travel ban, as well as another redistricting case, and a few holdovers. david: decision day is monday and tuesday? >> definitely monday. we will hear more on monday about decisions later on in the week. david: thank you, kimberly. sign up for the balance of power newsletter at bloomberg.com. get the latest on global politics in your inbox every day. bloomberg'sg up, real yield. include someone
jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." increasing leverage in a rising environment. chasing pain into investment grade credit. the transatlantic spread widens. mario draghi going nowhere fast. pricing in political risk. looking at a string of key elections in emerging markets.