tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg June 28, 2018 9:00pm-11:00pm EDT
close out the worst quarter in nearly three years. emerging markets have had the worst of it. china fighting back, the pboc kicking off the second half with targeted easing, support for the yuan. a bloomberg survey pinpointing 6.7 as the magic number. i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. haidi: also, stressed out, the fed forces six u.s. banks to scale back payouts, while deutsche bank failed the test completely. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪
singaporeet's look at kicking off this session, this last trading day, the second quarter, the first half. we have a move to the upside for the straits times inspect index. taiwan showing growth, .3%. haidi: a mixed session as we round out six months this quarter. singapore tracking higher, taiwanese markets as well. farewell to the quarter, and possibly good riddance,
especially if you have been long anything in emerging markets over the past quarter. >> good riddance to this quarter, indeed. when you look at the set up for chinese markets, futures higher after the shanghai composite fell to a march 2016 low. it has been a tough year for chinese real estate players. stocks hammered, down 13% over the past week, some bonds have fallen to record lows, including country garden. there is this wall of maturing debt that will hit the property sector. taking a look for under indicators. buyers for a chinese stocks fan on the ground. average daily turnover for mainland exchanges the lowest since august 2014. the shanghai composite the most oversold since 2013. the offshore yuan, the slump stalling after 11 straight days
lower, but now study. we -- study. while the pressure on the yuan is expected in the near term, you will see negative outlooks for transportation, utilities, and materials. stay defensive on offshore chinese stocks given this is the advice. rishaad: looking for the key reference rate and a short while from now. in forith china stepping support when the currency approaches 6.7 to the dollar, 1% the current level, nearly 6.63. richard frost is with me now. talk us through the findings. do you see the government stepping in and at what level? 6.7 is what the majority thought would prompt increase
intervention from the government, daily fixing, could strengthen it more than people would expect, which would send a strong signal. directly byntervene getting state banks to be buying the yuan, and they could take dramatic steps, which is what we saw in the last fee years, stepping up capital controls. rishaad: jefferies looking at dollar-yuan risk reversals. what does that show? isn't ae moment, there wall of worry in terms of how far the decline will go. that may be a good thing for the government. it may reduce the need for intervention. we see them intervene when we see huge short bets against the currency, which creates the risk of instability.
while people are bearish on the currency, they are not super pessimistic. that is the take away right now. , what is thed scene in terms of capital controls? they haven't entirely been loosened up from the last time we had about of yuan volatility. -- a bout of volatility. >> now they are able to press for with internationalization of the yuan. now that is not such a great of the given the losses past few weeks. there was a sense they were rolling some of these back, but the fact some remain in place gives them a cushion when it comes to losses we are seeing. have been fast, they have been steady. we are not seeing the same panicking moves we saw in 2015, particularly january 2016 when
we did see intervention by hong offshoreticularly yuan borrowing costs urging. -- costs surging. hugee moment there are outflows. haidi: not panic yet. thank you for that. waiting for that yuan reference rate in 10 minutes. we have had a series of stronger fixings, to no avail in terms of stemming the losses in the yuan. let's get to first word news. >> tough federal reserve stress tests have forced six banks, including j.p. morgan, to dole out more money to shareholders. agreed to freeze levels to previous years. there were widespread and
critical deficiencies in its planning. partdent trump has taken in a groundbreaking ceremony for the new foxconn factory. he is trying to make the case his economic policies are paying off ahead of midterm elections. he says the project will contribute $3.4 billion annually to wisconsin's economy and create 15,000 jobs. they put the figure at 13,000. astria has been awarded contract for nine anti-submarine frigates by b.a.t. systems. it will design warships constructed by a south austrian should building company. it will start service before 2030. ,ae shares climbed in london while those of an unsuccessful italian better slumped. the bali international airport has been closed until 7:00 p.m. friday by the latest irruption of a volcano blasting ash as high as two kilometers in the
air. november,rected in forcing 150,000 people to leave their homes and disrupting the lucrative tourism sector. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. rishaad: still ahead, the countdown to a potential trade war, more on china's latest moves. that is next. haidi: plus, easing hong kong housing prices, whether a new vacancy tax is the right way forward. this is bloomberg. ♪
chinese goods as trade tensions are seeing deepening and an economic slowdown taking place on the mainland. a white paper made the case for multilateral trade and detailing ,ts commitments to the wto saying china has lived up to its responsibility by opening its markets to the world and delivering on tariff reductions. joining us now is the managing director at rock creek global advisors and the former u.s. negotiator for the tpp and the trade representative for southeast asia. does china have a point? the accusations or the beef the trump administration has historic or current issues? >> they are current issues. theseo sides have had issues for many, many years, and
discussions have gone on for a long time, but they have not been result, so we are where we are today because the issues remain. haidi: barbara, were getting a line from the boj, cutting its billion. jgb to ¥410 we were looking at ¥430 billion in those last operations. getting to the topic at hand, is this the right approach for the trump administration to take as a negotiating tactic? would that not be the optimal way for president trump and the united states to be able to have more control over global trade? >> the administration has trying build leverage and use various tactics to increase its leverage against china. one of the easiest ways it could have built leverage was to
remain in the tpp and have a coalition of like-minded countries that would have joined together in setting high standard rules that address many of the issues we are looking to address with china, and looking to put pressure on china to except those rules itself. china initially was very concerned about the establishment of tpp and a saw it as an initiative aimed at in circling china. eventually, when it became clear that this was going to be the prevailing standard in the region, began looking at it more carefully and realizing there were elements in there that might help it with domestic reforms it would need to undertake to train its economy. rishaad: the dangers though are quite enormous. war,ar away from a trade how likely is it we enter into a full-blown conflict like that?
is a very hard thing to call at this point. it is a day by day situation. week, theend of last administration was preparing investment restrictions and export controls that it was planning to announce on june 30. when word of that got out, markets reacted. they fell by 300 points. there has been a lot of negative press about many of the, many of the actions that the administration has taken, especially the 232 steel and aluminum. i think the administration recognized that if it went for with investment restrictions, it would be hard to pull those back and would discourage investment in the united states, so now it has pulled back from some of the actions it was going to take and
decided to allow congress to legislate those investments and export controls, and will be looking at other ways to try to negotiate with china. the question now is whether or not the administration will go forward with implementation of tariffs itsts it -- said it was going to impose. we will wait to see if it goes forward with that or whether or not the u.s. and china begin a negotiation. rishaad: barbara, this begs the thation, the chinese say donald trump and his administration's issues here will backfire. that could be a danger. what is your view on that? >> i think we are already seeing that to a certain extent.
the tariffs on steel and aluminum are already causing all kinds of dislocation and problems around the country, and i think what the chinese have said is if we go forward with investment restrictions or export controls the try to wall off china, it will only reinforce china's a desire to become -- china's desire to become self-sufficient, and then create parallel supply chains that will make it difficult for companies to operate. are these issues better off being sorted out with institutions like the wto? the concern the administration has is many of the issues, many of the unfair trading practices, are not
issues currently covered by the wto. developing rules in the wto to address those issues would be extremely challenging, so they are looking for other mechanisms to address those. one certainly would have been the tpp, and if the tpp did not address all the issues, there could have been additional negotiations on other issues of concern. it is also looking at trying to do this bilaterally, i think it will be difficult to get china to accept major structural reforms bilaterally without any other countries working with us on that in a serious way. lookingo have now been to negotiate a bilateral package just to rebalance trade, and the question is whether or not that will be sufficient, whether or
not that will address the trade deficit that is so important to president trump, or whether or not we will be in this of, notte period necessarily a full scale trade war, but a tit-for-tat at a low level, and then there is the risk it could escalate. haidi: i appreciate your time. negotiatorchief u.s. for tpp, now with rock creek global advisors. just getting the yuan fixed today against the u.s. dollar, the lowest since december. a string of stronger, then weaker fixings. we have the 20 billion yuan drain in market operations, the pboc continuing to manage liquidity there. we will see if that has an impact on sentiment. the yuan extending that loss of .2%. bloomberg users can interact
haidi: the federal reserve's stress test has 46 banks, including j.p. morgan, to scale back additional cash for shareholders. deutsche bank failed entirely on weaknesses in planning and management. let's go to su keenan in new york. talk us through this u.s. unit of deutsche bank. >> it got the worst grade in the class. it is the only bank of the 18 international banks that failed the qualitative section of the exam. this is the u.s. unit. internalooked at their
controls, found weakness in capital planning and risk management. all other foreign banks earn a pass, but this one is one that ends up in the spotlight. the finding shows u.s. authorities remain frustrated with the u.s. arm, which they added to a confidential list of troubled lenders. i don't know if we have a chart of how this bank has performed. it is another black eye for a bank that has struggled. , sixrms of the other banks banks, including j.p. morgan, deutsche bank, down in a big way, and it is expected it will not put the bank in a strong position. chase,anks, j.p. morgan goldman sachs, morgan stanley come all have to scale back the amount of money they plan to dole out to shareholders in the share buybacks and distribution,
and what this means is that in order to pass the tests, they needed to hold onto that money. goldman sachs and morgan stanley will freeze total payouts at previous levels. 28 financial firms can proceed with the payout, but this is a much tougher task. it shows us that it is designed to make sure they have enough money to pass a theoretical economic shock, they have enough on hand, and that is limiting the amount of money they can give back at this time. rishaad: still seeing dividends going up by more than 30% on average. thank you. su keenan from new york. let's have a look at chinese banks. odee market, the auction peri coming to an end come a bit of bank andfor china ag
icbc. they have been on a record 14 day losing streak, all down partially to the yuan. despite that, analysts clinging to their bullish forecasts on these lenders. let's bring in a banking analyst. what is going on? >> since the market peak of january 26, the sector has come down 22%. that has been underperforming msci china hang seng index. during the last market downturn, been banks had outperforming the indices. i want to highlight it has been stronger than last time. banksd: you expect these
to power through all this yuan weakness and stock market downturn and emerge stronger at the end of it. eventually share price will reflect fundamentals. banks we cover make grow earnings more than 8% on average. int is compared to only 2% 2015, 3% in 2015 -- 2016. those banks could be growing profits by 10% average, so you are seeing a stronger profit outlook boosted by margin widening. bad loans is the picture looking these days? information,to our chinese banks are expensing improving asset quality,
although there have been headlines about rising corporate bond defaults in china. saybiggest chinese banks those could be individual cases and should not have any contagious impact to the quality of the chinese banking market. haidi: thank you for that. we are taking a look ahead to that open in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. shanghai stocks remain in a bear market. we had the lowest fixing from the pboc since december. we had one bank intervening yesterday to keep the yuan above , below that 6.6 level. we have to watch out for how much weakness we get in hong kong, the currency extending losses. hang seng futures largely positive. ftse china up .2%.
rishaad: there we go. of the quarter and the first half of 2018. we have a lot on her plate, emerging markets versus the of uglytates, a tale ducklings versus wants with emerging-market equities at the lowest level in 10 months. mind you we have swans in the shape of the nasdaq, the s&p, continuing their lurch upward. the hang seng could be down today. fix ae a yuan in focus, a short while ago, 6.61, the lowest since december.
meanwhile, oil prices rise, pressure on credit markets in china, then as we have been reporting, a lot of pressure on equity markets too. let's get to the hong kong open. here is sophie kamaruddin. >> the mood in hong kong, hang seng little changed. h-share index leaning at the start of the session -- swinging at the start of the session. they could be looking at a seventh day of losses if the negative momentum is sustained. have found a bottom for the shanghai after a four-day drop? that remains to be seen below that 2800 level and a sixth straight week of declines. we have the offshore yuan holding steady. the question is if china will draw a line in the sand to defend it. the fixing today was the lowest since december.
theerty players down 50%, worst monthly drop since early 2016, but several analysts say it offers good entry points as developers are on track. i want to highlight country garden and evergrand -- take a look at chinese developers. gaining ground. country garden among the advancers after a four-day decline. the yen, the boj cut its buying of 5-10 jgb's by ¥20 billion. the yen fluctuating, looking steady, could be softer for a fourth day against the dollar. the boj essentially taking advantage of the stability and bond yields and the yen to sell paper. rishaad: let's get to our guests now. thanks for coming in.
what a horrible first half of the year two you must have been busy. -- half of the year. you must of been busy. >> i think people were shellshocked and confused about the flows coming out of china. tradetepped up after the tensions between the u.s. and china escalated. we are in a phase of the market where the risk appetite is weak ,nd people will sell first looking at the empty half of the glass. rishaad: it is becoming in gear that is for certain. you have the trade noise in the background, but this is affecting many different asset classes in china. credit markets have been tighten. theirof people can't give bonds away and are having trouble logging them to brokers on the street. sentiment change in
that goes beyond concerns about a trade war. >> a few things are coming together on the liquidity side and the geopolitical front, but we also have some misinterpretation of data, the third and fourth tier cities, funding practices. i think the government was thinking about curtailing speculation and investment. the read across the market is there will not be government funding or subsidies for third tier and fourth tier cities. number at the production , it was 2% in february, 7% in april, and inmate it was close to 10%. there is an even this in the data, the financial part of the data. the financial in market closer to that aspect of it, then we look at the earnings
alert coming out of 30% of the topanies that are related the northbound of the connect program. are announcing policy alerts. -- profit alerts. rishaad: warnings. at the year to upgrade, energy, property, materials, they have all been moving ahead, but in this risk sentiment i think it has been unnoticed. by late july it when we get more comprehensive economic data from , we mayd the earnings have a rebound in the day or two, but i think july is still risk-averse. view, we have heard from analysts saying the
fundamentals for china are sound. it wasn't long ago we were maybe chinese onshore markets being a haven when you have global emerging-market volatility. when do you think the dust will settle for a clear picture of that to a merge and for investors to pay attention to the fundamental growth story again? >> that is a very good question. investorscautioned there is complacency on the trade issues, so we took the cash in our model portfolio to 5%, and i think we might have over shop a little bit, but for a good part of july we may see other geopolitical events that do not happen often, perhaps years, people20 will have their problems getting their arms around them initially.
when we get into the earnings season,on -- earnings people will see companies report and sometime in july there will be more data. haidi: i want to throw up this chart were going to talk about the yuan and where we go from here. a great story on bloomberg.com saying 6.7 is the line in the sand where we could see intervention. this is where we saw intervention the last time when things got this bad from the pboc. do you see this negative feed back loop and cross contagion between the currency and the falls in the equity market, and do expect we will see government support at some point soon? >> yeah, that is another good question. i think people in the capital markets look at the fx as an important indicator. if we were to compare year-to-date fx across markets, then the renminbi has held up
quite nicely. it has not declined that much. we are going back to where we were in december maybe of last year. they beat we go to the november or october level -- maybe we go to the november october level. the key is whether it reaches seven or not. if it doesn't and we don't see capital flow, we are fine. see capital outflow and a weakening towards seven, that would be another negative catalyst, so let's state tune. i do think there is interest not to trigger that kind of widespread negative sentiment on behalf of the policymakers. haidi: thank you so much for that. leisure as always. -- pleasure as always. let's get you the first word news with paul allen in sydney. >> the boj has cut its bond buying further, reducing
purchases of 5-10-year bonds on friday by ¥20 billion. that is $181 million. morgan stanley earlier said the boj it may take advantage of the recent stability and yields and the yen to reduce its bond purchases. and russian presidents will meet in helsinki on july 16 , days after what could be a tense nato meeting involving donald trump and america's closest european allies. accuse nato ofas irrelevance and called for russia to be reinstated in the g-seven. trump has met with putin twice before on the sidelines of international meetings, but this will be their first formal summit. the wall street journal says john kelly is expected to leave his position within the coming months. it says president trump is consulting advisors about possible replacements. front runners are the chief of
staff to vice president mike pence, and mick mulvaney, who heads the office of management and budget. the white house strongly condemns an attack on innocent journalists after five people were shopping killed at a newspaper office in maryland. a single gunman shot several employees in the newsroom. staff was described as hiding under desks. say a white male is in police custody. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. up, it is allg seemingly going wrong for china property developers. why bond investors are fleeing about market. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." the chinese property sectors bad year has turned worse. bonds are at record lows, concerns abouth low the economy. for more on this, we are joined by our guest. i can imagine what is going on helping then is not picture, but what else is driving the negativity in this sector? leveragesunt of chinese developers has racked up has been astounding. you have an unprecedented wall of debt due to be maturing in the next year and subsequent years.
,ombined with a declining yuan that increases their cost of holding that debt. that is not all. chinese regulators have been determined to cool speculation in the property market. in one of their salvos this week , they have decided to extend their campaign across 30 major cities in china for six months to root out what they deem as violations in the property sector. rishaad: tell me something, if theook at this industry or sector, how important is it for the chinese economy? and i suppose managing it by these curbs has been very important. ubs called china's property sector the most important sector in the universe a few years ago. whether you believe that or not, for china, it is a very
important sector. about 20% of gdp comes from real estate, both direct and indirect contributions from the construction sector and related industries. one cannot over emphasized the importance of this sector, and theslow down would affect entire economy. it is a sentiment-driven architect, so it could have -- market, so it could have a big impact. -- they aredo it not doing a one size fits all approach. they are going city by city and seeing where the pockets of speculation are and trying to tweak rules, and that approach has not worked too well over the past two years. rishaad: thank you very much. let's get to hong kong, a vacancy tax to ease housing
prices and discouraging investors from holding unsold apartments. patrick wong is with me now. how badly is this needed, and how will it work? home prices going up 12% to date. hold on to them a little bit. the property price keeps going up and up. that's why the government wants to do something on that. one thing they want to do is the vacancy tax, leveraging the .ituation if we look at the real some of the buildings are being renovated. rishaad: how do you enforce it?
there are so many ways of getting around it. answer that question. tax come you see the situation in australia, canada, it is difficult to enforce. you need to report each situation. , the government has the data. the problem is for the direct holding thethey are units. so the vacancy could beehiveuxury market --
for the luxury market. you sopatrick, thank much for that. let's take a look at what is moving this friday's session. >> sticking to the property chinese developers gaining ground. future land snapping a four-day decline, rated a new buy. sue not climbing with other property developers. china climbing with other property developers. anta sports products benefiting from a constructive u.s. consumption backdrop. some movers in tokyo, sharp surging after canceling its share sale citing market instability. shares down 39% in 2018. shareholders voted down a
proposal to require a drugmaker to secure prior approval for acquisitions bigger than ¥1 trillion. showa shell retreating as a merger with a rifle refiner is inching closer. that stock also under pressure this morning. haidi: thank you for that. let's get a look at the stories trending across the bloomberg universe. the fed stress tests on banks in , deutsche bank's unit failed entirely. that story is garnering a lot of attention. onomberg.com has the story the warning of a cyberattack. millions of customers may be affected by a potential data breach on its website for adidas. japaneseead about the rocket that has reached an asteroid and will attempt a landing later this year to collect specimens for return
haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. let's get you a check of the business flash headlines. planning to give more bridgwater employs ownership as the firm moves to the next phase of a secession plan. it will give a greater say in governance and management. ray dalio is midway through a secession plan. >> we are going from a company in which i led the company in this way, and now we are going to something that needs broader and more formalized partnership. rishaad: looking at starbucks shares, three-year lows on news that cfo is leaving, his
retirement as starbucks grappling with slowing sales, tricky expansion in the chinese market, and a partner of howard schultz. it iscks said last week closing some stores in the united states. haidi: netflix looking to india or its next 100 million subscribers. limited customers there at the moment. the average monthly price in india is twice as much as the average pay-tv service. seriesst indian netflix is due out in july. rishaad: the latest unicorn and china's start of arena is up against stiff competition in a crowded bike sharing market. hello bike is what it is called invite at 2.3 billion dollars. in an exclusive interview, the cfo told bloomberg how his
company stacks up against its rivals. we definitelythat surpassed our competition. that used to be much bigger than us last year. >> where do you see hello bike going in the future? >> we don't see ourselves as a bike sharing company only. we don't want to be limited only to bike sharing, but bike sharing is very important success factor for us. once we feel we have enough user base, we will go vertically segments,o do other which is natural. >> the most recent round of financing valued hello bike more than $2 billion. you have talked about this expansion, which sounds like you would need more fund-raising. do you have any plans in that area? >> we will be doing that through both internal generated cash equityd also external
financing or debt financing. >> can you talk about the internal cash flow and what it looks like directionally? >> it has been healthy. we were under pressure last year because the market, somebody much bigger initiated this pricing war. people are more rational. then, we definitely follow also that sort of trend, basically increasing the prices. so, that actually helped us greatly with the topline growth, strong -- healthy the past few months. >> can you describe that in any way? >> definitely more than double digits. working on sure
providers. >> is an ipo something possible in the near future? >> first of all, we will have to be ready. when i say we come our market share, user base, our position, market share leadership have to be further solidified. to make it happen. haidi: that was the hello bike cfo speaking to bloomberg. a look at the markets trading in this region on the final trading day of the week. quarter,en a torrid particularly for asian and emerging markets. the hang seng up about .25%, the shanghai composite fluctuating, but trending lower. we have been down every single day this week, the lowest for that market since march 2016. it is more mixed elsewhere, rish. rishaad: it certainly is.
looking at this in tokyo and the prison for which investors are looking at things. we have a move down. despite mixed economic data, we did get production figures which were stronger on a year on year basis than expected, and indeed on a month by month basis. a four .2% increase in industrial production year on year, and improvement on the 2.6% for april. this against the jobless rate falling, it has not fallen for months. 2.2% is the jobless rate in japan. we were expecting 2.5%. pain, we takes of a look at india, specifically pressure on the indian currency, plunging to a record low. we will look at whether the rupee has further to fall. by jpwe will be joined
our phones are more than just phones. they're pocket-sized personal trainers. last minute gift finders. [phone voice] destination ahead. and discoverers of new places. it's the internet in your hand. that's why xfinity mobile can be included with xfinity internet which could save you $400 or more a year. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call, or visit a store today.
♪ chinese markets falling once again, japan has been falling down, asia's worst quarter in almost three years. we will have a look at what central banks are doing to stem the fall. plus, no respite inside for the rupee. after hitting an all-time low, analyst are predicting more pain out there. from hong kong, i am rishaad salamat. >> we also look at beijing ambition, getting ahead of its reality. this is "bloomberg markets: asia." ♪
haidi: investors saying goodbye and may be good riddance to the first half of the year, and for e.m.'s, it has been the worst quarter for emerging-market stocks and currencies, since september 2015. bank of indonesia working on a third rate hike in three months. the problem is, can that even stemmed outflows? rishaad: central banks are talking about that, we had a guest talking about the bond buying program in indonesia. fallen, bonds have also and the question is committed to have any bonds is left to buy anyway? let us find out what is going on market wise, here is sophie kamaruddin. sophie: won it comes to the mood in jakarta, the stoxx has gained
about 1%, and the rupiah is under pressure as well. taking a look elsewhere, looking study.yen, it is looking but we are seeing declines for japanese stocks, and the cost be is off by about a 10th of a percentage, lower for a fourth day. the korean won has stalled after i hit overnight. looking at the yuan, the offshore rate is in for a 12 day of losses, and the pboc set of fix at the weakest level since september. although, it is looking stronger-than-expected, guys. haidi: thank you, that is get the first word news with paul in sydney. paul: haidi, bloomberg has been told that china's is that china is considering whether to been issuance of wants. . that would reduce financing operations for property developers. selling bonds. a popular financing
tactic because it didn't require approval. president trump has taken part in a groundbreaking ceremony for foxconn's newest factory. trying to make a case that his economic policies are paying off ahead of the midterm elections. the project will continue through .4 billion dollars -- $3.4 billion annually to the wisconsin economy and create thousands of jobs. thewall street journal says white house chief of staff john kelly is expected to leave his position within the coming months. the general says president trump's consulting advisors of possible replacements. the front runners would be nick ailes, chief of staff to vice president pence, and mick maloney, who has the office of the budget. our contract for mining submarine frigates to bae
thisms has been won by company from australia. the sheriff for the company climbed in london. the unsuccessful italian bitter had their shares slump -- bidder had their shares slump. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. ♪ that. paul, thank you for bank of japan has reduced buying of 5-10 year bonds, that as bring in our guest to talk about the implications. what if anything should we be reading into this? >> i think really at the end of the day, the boj is saying that they are doing their normal yield curve control policy. they have indicated. several times a day are a long ,ay away from monetary easing through tightening, so they may
be taking advantage of the fact that they have cut bonds twice pretends before, and they're taking advantage of the market right now. saying that you have taken or word on this, it is not reflection on monetary, taking the opportunity to cut the combined purchases. there are quite happy more than likely, to achieve the cut. haidi: david, we will be talking out length about what it back -- a badt has been for quarter it has been for emerging markets. the indian rupee in particular, falling to a record low, under pressure from the oil price story. there are voices in the market that says that this is not the bottom, are there? david: yes, the market is , when itt the cycle went above 69, it actually
closed lower than it opened, which is a good thing from a rupee perspective. , theuld be a rebound dollar rupee, down to the 68 handle -- again, we need to see how it trades today. it is the end of the quarter, so there is a bunch of slowing going on. the general trend is, if you look at rising u.s. rates, it will beat of for the rupee like any other currency to stand against that. so i think the market is trying to see if it hits the $70 handle. if it does, it is the speed with which it gets there that matters. countries want to the currencies weakening but it don't want them to depreciate too quickly. rishaad: david, in indonesia, we have the rate decision coming on. we could see the third one in a way, trying to
address the route we have witnessed for the rupee. but is it enough? david: certainly come of the markets are expecting 75 basis , but the bank of indonesia, by the question is, could that be enough? the central bank has certainly would likehat they to control the level of with which the rupee is depreciating. rememberst governor what happened in 2013 when there was tension, and wants to avoid that. they might surprise the markets by increasing its by 50 basis once, which would surprise a markets and make them say hey, we are here to attack the rupiah. 25 basis points is certainly expected, as an effect to try to control the slowdown of the rupiah. rishaad: thanks a lot for that, david.
♪ rishaad: the are back with "bloomberg markets: asia." we are looking at the action in india, and the higher oil prices, which is affecting a country which has a net oil deficit on top of that. and the rupee keeps going on in a southerly direction. sawie: with a backdrop, we stocks slide a second day on thursday, which is the last trading day of the quarter. refining spreads also took a hit this week, given the rise in energy prices.
taking a look at features, there are pointing somewhat higher. i also want to point out what is broadly with the sensex speaking, the em equity carnage had been avoided this quarter, up about 6%, the best em performer in the equity space. that emergent. index. is down, of course we are keeping an eye on the rupee when the markets open later this morning, there is a potential of crossing of the 69-71 mark, which would be very as that elaine, given what we are seeing in crude politics. we will continue to keep a close watch on the. indeed.es, watching the rupee has not been alone in terms of weakness in the emerging markets fx another asset classes. let us bring in our next guest, he doesn't expect india's growth to slow.
he is the head of india and southeast asia economics at oxford economics. he joins us from singapore. . , you are not particularly optimistic in terms of the reform gender? priyanka: haidi, the threat. i think the general -- haidi, that is right. the focus is not on these economic reform agenda, the focus -- they will be talked about, but the actions will mostly be more about how to garner votes. we already have the msb announcement in terms of agriculture prices, a pipeline which will add to the inflation. clearly, the priorities for the government are different at this point in time. haidi: i want to put up this chart looking at the languishing when it comes to the indian rupee. we are looking at $68 -- 69 at the moment.
it in 12 months, does reflect the fundamentals? is it are em space, rising rates and stronger u.s. dollar story? priyanka: i would agree with that. i think it is more about rising rates and a stronger u.s. dollar story. of course, oil prices to the negative makes for a country like india, which has a current deficit. i think what is very important to keep in mind, is that we are in a position right now where we are trying to catch a falling knife, which is not really a successful strategy ever. you expectds on how this to pan out in the second half of the year. if the dollar actually resumes weakness as is often analysts'
view, then yes, that could happen for the route the. whether it continues into year end, depends on quite a bit of factors. rishaad: picking up on the rising dollar, what would make that happen? at the moment, it is seen as a flight to quality, to havens. if we get a trade war, that will continue, surely? aiyanka: that is the big if, risk which has been flattening of the last few weeks, it is something looming over the economy. but again, do we really know? what we know so far is that 50 billion dollars each, the direct effect of that is manageable. we are seeing some impact on sentiment laying out in the dollar, e.m. fx weakening, interest rates rising in some of the countries, to defend their
currency. but much depends on how much this blows out. weaken,ar could and the biggest reason would be that escalation is not as big. you could see another $50 billion in tariffs each from u.s. and china, but not the $200 billion figure. . you would see a tapering of growth picking up in the u.s., while the rest of the world catches up. narrow, usingare the fundamental upright pressure on the dollar. rishaad: i was just show you this chart from our library, it shows the worst month we've had for emerging-market currencies and martindale core years. is it purely --. in more than two years. these countries have individual issues.
priyanka: that is a perfectly valid point, it is not surely a dollar story. it is coming at a time when the global economy is happening with challenges, including a slower china back home, which matters for us, in terms of how we think about asian e.m. fx. we are already seeing that, china is kind of -- at least from the monetary policy perspective -- trying to support a domestic economy at a time when trade war risks have gone up. so as i said, it is not a one factor, it is a negative coalition of factors coming together and posing several challenges. eventually, much of them are still risks, we don't know where they go from here. knowns, ass, unknown donald rumsfeld would have said. thank you for joining us, priyanka.
♪ watchingthe are "bloomberg markets: asia," i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. the u.s. is leading the race to find these rare -- mother 100 private companies are valued at over 100 billion dollars, but china is catching up, with 70 companies already. have a command valuation of at least $300 billion. they top a list of chinese tech stars, mostly concentrated in the internet service side of things. one start up is. dv, which mayte p
file for an ipo in the u.s. next week. sources say that it is valued at $15 billion, 10 times more than where it was a few years ago. one analyst is confident that it can best the likes of alibaba and jd.com. in moreany has invested than 15 in more than 15 unicorns so far, telling us that changing chinese consumer trends are driving his investment strategy. forhe are two main focus is us, the first is the so-called new conception. china is going to our consumption upgrading, i.e. commerce or the retail business. the other area is. core technology such as artificial intelligence. we believe these technologies will improve infrastructure so that they can better fulfill the people's demand of clothing, eating, housing and transportation. >> what is the most dangerous
area for venture capital to invest in in china today? >> one of the models we do not think is promising is buying products from overseas and seven consumers.estic at one time, almost every single vc made investments in that area, but we didn't. we hadn't seen any difference in core competitor competitivenessf those companies. nowadays, these companies no longer exist. another example is a self-service good idea which was really popular a few years ago. a swarm of vc's dumped their money into those startups but we did not think the models viable. now, the front runners in this area are struggling. >> you let the first round of d, which is p about $15 billion worth now. how does it feel to watch a
company grow so quickly. >> it is still a start up despite the five that it is going so well. i will still look at it in irrational way, it has been running for three years and it requires a longer time for it to continue to do what it is to develop. >> do you think it can survive competition from a jd.com and alibaba? >> of course, otherwise, why it.st in haidi: that was the capital funding partner of the vc there. haidi: , an early investor in xiaomi. xiaomi is firming up its plans for what is said to be the world's largest ipo in two years. everyone from. majord dad investors to institutional players are said to be running up. we are joined by bloomberg news reporter manuel. what are some of the names associated with the deal so far? on the right track
we will see what the final price will be in the coming hours, but as you said, we are breaking some interesting stories about hyper investors , oruding george soros investment firm hillhouse who are putting in big orders. so it feels like even though the appetite is on the low end of the range, there are some big profile investors back in the company.- backing the haidi: and of course, there are ?oncerns about the listing manuel: exactly, it was a everyone.o they had been quite vocal about their plans, about the fact that they could not make it happen on time. it shows the challenges ahead
rs, showing the companies are very keen on trying to achieve those possible listings, but there is still a lot of work to be done. -- rishaad:t when do we expect for us to get a price? manuel: most of the deal is being driven at the moment from the west coast in the u.s., pacific time. there are teams here in hong francisco who are finishing up the books, so it will take quite a few hours, until we have a better picture on what it looks like. we have a long day ahead of us today, to see how the books look and the final price. rishaad: manuel, thank you for
joining us. let us go to the business flash headlines, we are being told the 21st century fox is set to close in the 27th of july on disney's offer. disney winning antitrust approval for its bid this week from the u.s. doj, it gives it another win over comcast, who is vying over the asset. haidi: amazon is entering the u.s. drug business with the acquisition of an online pharmacy. the billion dollar acquisition of the boston-based startup is industry.shake up the are amazon finish the day higher, walgreens and cvs fell on the news. nikes north american sales continue to grow for the first time since 2017, and that sent the stock jumping.
the sneaker giant had forecast flat sales. in retail3% rebound markets falls shy of aud adidas, but they are seeing where over half of its revenues are generated. haidi: starbucks shares file on news that the chief financial leaving, this comes after slowing sales in the u.s. are happening, as well as the recent departure of its longtime ceo.ving starbucks said last week that it is closing some of its stores in the u.s.. ♪ rishaad: it is that time of the day when we head into the japan is oneeak, which hour-long -- the japanese lunch break. a massive move there for stocks. yes, after canceling its
share sale which was meant to raise $1.8 billion, this company cited market instability due to -- no surprise -- u.s.-china trade tensions. it also retracted some of yes, s share sale which its ..s. acuity's report shares are down nearly 35% so far in 2018. this pharma company is dropping, after showers go to -- shareholders put it down acquisition.r an i would like to highlight these stocks in the energy space, the sector that is a drug most on the nikkei 225. as we head into lunch break, we have shallow rich weaving from a 26 year high, as a merger with a emitsu,il refiner, id. mee is considered. the most important data point is a retail sales, which dropped
under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver.
>> 10:29 in hong kong, 12:29 in sydney. stress tests have forced six u.s. banks to scale back proposals for doling out more cash to shareholders. goldman sachs and morgan stanley agreed to freeze payouts at previous levels. a subsidiary of deutsche bank failed because of "widespread and critical deficiencies in its planning." a bloomberg survey sees china stepping in to support the yuan once it approaches 6.7 to the dollar. jeffries says while the dramatic dissent has traders on edge,
there is no panicking. the u.s. and russian presidents will meet in helsinki on july 16, days after what could be a tense and nato meeting. the president has accused nato of irrelevance and called for russia to be reinstated to the g7. trump has met with putin twice before, but this will be their first formal summit. u.s. police say the man who shot and killed five people at an american newspaper may have made threats by a social media. a single gunman fired into the newsroom and shot several employees. gunman is ahe maryland resident in his late 30's. the white house says it strongly condemns the attack on innocent journalists.
global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: rounding out a difficult quarter and first half of the year. let's look at the latest with sophie. far measurable summer so for most markets across the region. we have a mixed session. .3%nese stocks closing down , a fourth day of losses for the kospi, but the korean won has stalled the decline. malaysian stocks, the benchmark rising one point 8% amid downgrade risks for the economy, so it could be halting a four-day decline as it is rising the most in a month. credit suisse saying malaysian stocks look attractive as the p/e ratio has fallen below the historical average. the broader em space has been a
tough quarter. the selloff worsened this week. we have the msci em index near a 10 month low. just below yuan 6.64, and crude around $73 a barrel. haidi: taking a look at property stocks in china, some relief for a difficult month for the broader chinese markets. >> some relief after a week that saw turnover in stocks and bonds. country garden gaining ground after a four-day decline. evergrand are and the most exposed by value to dollar-denominated debt, so stocks in that space gaining ground. when you look at the losses over the past week, country garden
with a drop of nearly 19%. this as the space is facing funding constraints and attempts to cool the market and this wall of maturing debt that will soon hit the sector. theaad: let's get more on market action as we have the tale of two halves, the swans in the u.s., and the ugly ducklings in the emerging markets. 10 month lows for these particular benchmarks. our guest is with us now. what is going on? is a lot of pressure on china. the pressure is threefold. number one, the trade tension. , china'so decelerating economy as part of the deleveraging campaign. number three, general risk off in emerging markets because the u.s. dollar is strengthening and
money is being pulled out of emerging markets, china, india, indonesia. , we are in eight much more cautious place compared to the beginning of the year. rishaad: what will change that? seeumber one, we have to how the trade situation evolves. july 6 is basically d-day. if no conclusions are reached before july 6, the first round of tariffs will be imposed on the $34 billion in goods. , down the road the chinese leadership will have to introduce proactive measures to jumpstart the economy. i think we will see fiscal support in the form of tax cuts. we will see a much more accommodative monetary policy. we are expecting two rounds of reserve requirement ratio reductions this year. rishaad: i want to look at
china, just get to that. it is not all down to trade tensions. the credit markets are under so much pressure currently, developers having a real problem. i will bring up this chart here in our gtv library. totalshowing how these funds for developers are trying up, the white line. homebuyers also falling here. the bank loans to build is telling another story, going below zero. >> that's right. downad: this is not just to trade. something else is going on. what is it? >> liquidity tightening. we have had a consistent campaign to deleverage the economy and reduce risks in sectors such as the property market in the past 18 months. euphoric time when properties were selling so well. the leaders put on a lot of measures in the last 12 months
to contain the bubble in the property sector. now we have issues in the property market and among small and medium-sized enterprises, which are cash-strapped, so bond defaults are happening. the default are still relatively small, but we need to watch the financial space closely. in view of this, the leadership will have to ease monetary policy towards some of these suffering enterprises, especially medium-sized companies and the property sector. speaking of intervention, we are waiting to see where the line in the sand is for yuan weakness. we have done some analysis, and most say 6.7 is the next psychological level where you will see more effort from the pboc in terms of tightening liquidity or that yuan fixing.
the you see a return to stricter capital controls this time around? >> capital controls have been in place for the last two years. it is unlikely for the leadership to ease those controls. the renminbi had appreciated against the u.s. dollar prior to the current weakness. what we are seeing today is the correction from the appreciation we had seen earlier. investors need to not just look at the bilateral exchange rate, they need to look at the basket of currencies the yuan is trading against. the yuan has gone from 98 to below 96 in recent days. we are seeing weakness of the chinese renminbi. the trigger from the u.s. side is they may blame china for competitive the violation or manipulation of a currency,
which is another risk down the road. , buthave not done so far we may see the white house blaming china for competitive devaluation if the yuan continues to weaken. haidi: to your point, this chart , we were talking about this being a u.s. dollars story for the longest time, but now weakness adequately reflected against that trading basket of currencies as well. are the fundamentals that bad? it felt like not too long ago we were talking about the positive aspects of the chinese markets, a-share inclusion, growth demographics were strong, and to a certain extent you have government support if the markets selloff to badly. is this just a moment in sentiment-driven selloff that we are seeing? >> we are seeing a crescendo of selling these days. a lot of that is sentiment-driven.
2015, it is fundamentally different. 2015, the chinese a-share market was very expensive. we saw the index dropped from 5000 two 2500 and a matter of months. of thehe valuation a-share market is more reasonable compared to 2015 them a so in fact the bubble had already burst. there is no more bubble to burst. that is the fundamental difference between the situation today and 2015. also, we have not seen extremely strong capital flight today. 2016 second half capital flight was very strong. today, because of effective currency and capital controls, we have not seen a huge amount of capital flight. is a body ofe thought out there saying all bets are off if a trade war does come to pass.
, odds ofthe chances that happening in your view? >> we are coming close to d-day. if there is no negotiation between the u.s. and chinese side, we will have $34 billion tariffs.facing 25% china will retaliate in kind. , the picturepeople for u.s.-china exports make up just 3% of gdp. we are looking at a fraction of that with $35 billion considering it is $500 trillion worth of trade. however, the u.s. administration has threatened to $200 billion in tariffs, then another $200 billion on top of that, so $450 billion, essentially all the exports to america could have
that he 5% tariff. that would be the worst case in the area. i'm not sure the worst case in your it will play out them up at that is what the market is beginning to discount. out, but that is what the market is beginning to discount. haidi: you're looking at xi jinping having consolidated a moment inhis is history where china is asserting itself on the world stage. they have been pretty measured in their response so far come up but what you think about the building risks of xi jinping wanting to come out with a more aggressive response if the u.s. does come through with its tariffs? >> i don't think the chinese side would appear week or back down. or back down. this is tit-for-tat negotiation. so far, the war has not broken out.
it is traded skirmishes. if the tariffs are imposed starting july 6, the chinese side we do the same on u.s. imports into china. lose-lose be a situation. no one will when a trade war. we hope it won't happen. we help if the trade war does happen, it won't be long lasting. however, china domestically controls its policy in terms of monetary and fiscal policy. china has a lot of tools at hand to ease policy to help stimulate the domestic economy and making ofe china's trajectory growth, and especially in areas such as technology, will stay intact.-- haidi: a pleasure as always. talking about all the trade tension uncertainty with china. even as the virtual coin
rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets as we look at bitcoin blues. confidence in the cryptocurrency and generally cryptocurrencies have been tested this year with hacks from japan to south korea raising questions. let's find out the damage, the score. >> bitcoin blues indeed. sliding below $8,900, a november low, this as we see some big declines bringing the quantum of that drop 20% through may and june, demand suffering because of security and regulatory concerns. central banker saying it is doubtful what the economic usefulness of cryptocurrencies
truly are, so hitting that and rivals like the theory them. etherium. haidi: we're seeing japan's biggest messaging service getting into the crypto space. its own crypto currency exchange next month. for more details, i want to bring in our tech reporter in tokyo. it is interesting timing, daring timing, isn't it? >> certainly. the exchange will be called bitb majorjuly and handle 30 cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, bitcoin cash. there will be no dollar to bitcoin. it will be based in singapore, but open to users worldwide, unless you live in japan or the united states for regulatory reasons.
line has applied for a license in japan, so users here will be able to trade as well. it will start as a website, but line being a smart phone-native company, there is a mobile app on the way as well. what does the messaging service have to do with crypto, and does it have to have anything to do with crypto ultimately? >> that's right. is primarily a messaging service with 165 million monthly active users. they are keeping their user base completely separate. there is a whole level of know your customer requirements that their messaging clients cannot clear immediately. part ofthe exchange is a much bigger push into financial services by that company. they have seen their user base
that made an are increasingly relying on ad revenue, so chey're looking to finte options to boost growth. there is a strategic aspect, in some areas, but elsewhere it is facebook. it is a way for them to get a foothold in the market where messenger is not active. rishaad: thanks. we're going to look at apple now. it has landed a second supply for the oled screens for high-end phones. lg display will supply between 2 million and 4 million units. our reporter joins us. why the need for a second supplier? , so far, samsung has
been the only supplier of these alwaysreens, and apple goes for a multi-supplier strategy, and because there were no other suppliers capable of had to rely onle them, so it is important they had on a second supplier. they will have greater negotiating power over prices for one. haidi: why is apple trying to diversify away from samsung? it is part of their playbook i guess. >> yes, like i just said right now, it has a lot to do with the pricing strategy. if they have multiple suppliers, that will give them room to cut down on prices, because price has thing -- has been a big issue for everyone. be priceyns tend to and contributed to the price tag on the iphone x.
even though it is only 2 million to 4 million, less than 5% of what samsung is expected to ship this year, is significant in that it sets the stage for apple and lg to work towards a bigger deal next year. haidi: there were some rumors are reports in the media that oled wants to adopt screens for all its iphones next year. companies would be excited if that happens, but this latest news does not necessarily mean apple will go strategy nextd year because suppliers are still working on capacity issues, and lg for one, the second supplier now, is still working to ramp up capacity and there is still a question of what the fines will be for samsung and lg combined for oled screens next year, and
the question of whether the apple'sill really like new oled phones. we will have to see what happens there. haidi: thank you for that. it's take a look at tictok. is the first global news network design for social media offering live video coverage and hourly updated news reports verified by bloomberg. follow tictoc if you haven't already. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
rishaad: time for our battle of the charts, pitting the best charts against one another. you can run the function right there at the bottom of your screen. let's start off with juliet. >> i am looking at migration. this fear index coming through comingpe, a lot of focus through in terms of migration and immigration policies across the world. 1414 tracks migration fear. they count the number of newspaper articles with at least one term from the term sets, migration or fear, border
control, fear, anxiety, panic, windowsttacks, and appear in a newspaper article and we divide that by the total count of newspaper articles and the same calendar quarter in the same country. there is more fear in terms of migration and how that will play into the economy in germany than in france. just topical when you're looking at all these tensions globally around the world. rishaad: and feeding into populist movements as well. we have some news headlines on this selfsame point. yes, the french president saying the eu has agreed their current approach on immigration. rather serendipitous. let's see if serendipity can visit you. haidi: i know you are sentimental. this is the end of the quarter, first six months of the year,
and fears of a trade war and inversion are dominant. we've been talking about this impending yield curve inversion and backwardation and oil futures, but it is a nice reminder that in version in volatility is a frequent and common thing. this is looking at china and the yuan. one month volatility climbing above the when you're volatility. that picked up when trade tariffs were double down. you seen this volatility and version and the other that-impacted countries have inverted as well. it is a negative sign for markets. the higher the short-term fx volatility, the harder it is for traders to hedge global bond and stock portfolios. they return to home base in the u.s. dollar. always sending us great charts here.
know, serendipity swayed me. sorry. thanks very much. brussels,re from getting towards 5:00 a.m., emmanuel macron talking here. that is not emmanuel macron. that is angela merkel. taking a look at this approach they have agreed on on immigration. said the european union will face migration pressures for a long time. nothing new there. more on this in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪