tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 18, 2018 3:30pm-5:00pm EDT
the president appeared to deny that russia was still targeting the united states, at odds with warnings from his top intelligence chief. endtrump was asked at the of a cabinet meeting today of russia was still targeting the u.s. and he answered no without elaborating. directorey, the fbi who was fired last year by president trump is tried to distance himself further from rick -- from the republican party. he urged voters on twitter to support democrats in the midterms. he wrote that all whom believe in the country's values must vote for democrat this fall. history has its eyes on us. the former fbi directories with that he no longer considers himself a republican. former u.k. foreign secretary boris johnson today set -- asked the house not to abandon brexit and f lawmakers not to abandon the enthusiasm of of a smart break from the eu, saying it is
not too late. >> we have changed tack once and we can change again. the promise that the we failed to make a case for the agreement. we haven't even tried. now.st try we will not get another chance to get it right. mark: johnson resigned from government rather than except pragmatist or may's plan. anger is growing in puerto rico after it was revealed that a $245,000island spent on a new bulletproof suv to , whoport governor ricardo said he thought this was much lower. it says the vehicle will instead be used by a special police force. the incident instilled anger in puerto rico where residents have suffered through a decade of recession and are bracing for
austerity measures. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tick tock on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ julie: i am julie hyman. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. >> modest gains in the u.s. stocks. financials and industrials leading the way. joe: the question is what did you miss? no means.ructing what sarah sanders clarified what the president meant when he spoke at a cabinet meeting earlier or president trump now says russia is not targeting the u.s. dealing ag market is
pinch. fallen by the most since 2015 p are what to interest rates have to do just ahead. taking the pulse of the labor market, the fed chief jay powell says the u.s. may not have reached full employment yet is the concentration of power having an impact on wages? jay powell wrapped up two days of testimony on capitol hill and made it clear to lawmakers he ands to stay "in his lane" out of politics. but the chair did issue multiple warnings about the protection of trade policies, reminding lawmakers that his trade was under their authority. here with more is our economics and policy correspondent michael mckee. thank you for helping us sift this testimony p or was the takeaway indeed that he threat?rade is the >> he did his best to be
inoffensive about it. not a particular number or effect on the company, and spoke in generalities, and economic theory that when you have higher tariffs, they grow at a slower rate and you can get inflation and that is not good for a country. however, directly address the administration buses tariffs, dancing away from it every time they ask about it. joe: on the question of inflation, over the course of two days, did we get any further insight into how chairman assessed's -- assesses the risk now? >> no. his statement in the follow-up comets on monetary policy where the economy is right now are pretty much taken from the fed statement in june. inflation is at the target, they want to keep it there, but it does not show signs of accelerating at this point. he noted we are not seeing wage inflation now. something forn or investors to trade on based on his testimony of the day. >> if i was interesting it came
out at 2:00 today am a highlight from that was there are concerns among manufacturers across the fed's regions, that tariffs -- the it is in animus across all of the regions, some of the ones that were not manufacturers all told the local fed region that they are worried about with the tariffs might do but only a few district reported companies actually seeing impacts. you're looking at the steel tariffs. others are just look at what the headlines say here it could be bad for business but has not hit us yet. to them beingead reluctant to do certain things or put off decisions question mark their mindful and are monitoring it -- >> you look back to jay powell who was asked about that and said yesterday and today they have been hearing from companies that they are beginning to put projects on ice, as he put it, things they were going to do, they will wait and see because of the uncertainty of how they affect profit margins, it is too
great now. >> talking of trade, we got headlines on that front as well today here trump said he could prioritize bilateral trade deal with mexico over canada. have larry this morning in an interview blaming the chinese president for holding back talks. least talking about talking and whether they are talking or not. >> that is right. we do not think the u.s. is talking with chinese in a formal negotiation. there are no talks to push off those tariffs. know the nafta countries have been talking behind the seats -- behind the scenes for some weeks. comes back to washington next week with trader presented of rod. we do not know whether death what the schedule for canada is but we will assume they will come back at some point soon. both mexico and canada said they are not interested.
what the neww mexican president-elect thinks about it. he suggested he would rather he doesn'te-way but take office until december. it is not probably going to be on a bilateral treatment. >> what would he the hypothetical benefit for canada or mexico to strike a bilateral trade deal with the u.s. win ifight be more of a the u.s. can get petitions and wants in the deal the united states and if they can solve the issue of the wall. which is going to be a major stumbling block for trying to get anything done with mexico because it is a matter -- matter of national pride. the problem is companies in all of these countries do not want it and they are pressuring their because it means disrupting supply chains, different rules for different countries, and you will have to play by different rules and perhaps pay different tariffs. it is not something countries --
that they want to deal with. >> speaking of walls, they make of houses. you got new home numbers today that are lackluster in the united states. do you know why? >> no p or we don't. >> there doesn't seem to be a weather-related issue here. noise or a one month and one off. it could also be something else. i brought my own chart. if you look at the one i brought here, they can pull it up but it basically shows housing starts, which are the white line, and the blue line, you all have the lumber prices and the cost of housing goes up. that may be slowing the economy down. or at least slowing the housing sector. we don't know. it -- it takes a couple of months to find out. >> thank you. our bloomberg economics and policy correspondent. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it remains to be seen but we develops,the fund they were looking for 's --acturers and they wanted to do that but they couldn't because of restrictions, illegal restrictions google put on them. >> some say it is too little too here between shopping ensuring that other search engines might get more prominent than google, that hasn't worked either. would do we need to see it break up to see the competition effective? >> it is very important to see in the first decision, we have taken those for good reason. we cannot say google is complying with this decision. -- anvery much an open
open decision. if google lives up to it here and now for manufacturers to have a choice, and for consumers to have a choice. break in at with companies, it will take like forever. we need competition here and now. to deathbout other way other regulators? should the u.s. be doing more? >> you know, we have limited resources. we spent all of our resources to make sure european consumers can add their competition and the benefits of that and innovation and choice. we do not spend much time consider what other people should to their resources. what about how other people will react? we're in an environment with the eu -- do you think we might have some
kind of reaction from president trump? do you hope for one? thing we have always shared with u.s. friends is that consumers should have choice. the important thing in the marketplace if -- is that the markets serve consumers. if consumers do not like products or services or prices, they will go to someone else. these are values we have shared with u.s. friends always. i do not see any reason why this should change. >> we not -- we have not had any monopolistic engagements with the u.s. in years. >> my u.s. colleagues rest of their priorities. more than busy with our own priorities. said --e has always they said look at the -- if you force us to change business practices, we minor be able to allow the operating system to remain free. does that take away any element of competitiveness?
>> one of the things praised about android is it is open source. , obviously for anyone, if you have the skills, to see, should i do something, should i put my skills and ideas -- that is because it is open source. then you have another operating system. i think that is a very good illustration of the benefits of competition, that if you open up those innovative ideas and business ideas, they can thrive. this is just to say, let's open up for competition. >> that was the eu competition commissioner. bloomberg for the business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news now. --zon says it will enforce the promotion was its biggest shopping event in history. shoppers bought more than 100
million products, a number of large brands offer discounts, including the golf club and samsonite luggage. billion or elon musk has apologized to her british diver that -- for remarks at grizzly appeared to rattle investors. in tesla. it was one of the divers who rescued the thai boys soccer team from a flooded cave. he had criticized musk and what he built to help in the rescue. the group wants to make a comeback in one of the hottest in the credit market, direct lending. several months ago, blackstone's capital partners dissolved a partnership and since then, it has rebuilt its business, taking on bank loans to small companies. bloomberg has learned they plan to amass $10 billion of equity and debt capital over the next several months. bloomberg business flash next, united continental
scarlet: the many meeting -- meanings of a presidential know. president trump appeared to contradict dan coats. --n asked why russia was whether russia was still targeting the u.s., president trump said no. where find the president meant no more questions and that he still does believe russia still poses a threat to u.s. elections. for more on all this, we want to welcome alix. it butanders clarified jeff flake, senator from arizona, said he did not believe sarah sanders'-- sarah sanders interpretation and the bigger issue is the president often goes off script and qualifies his own statements by bringing in another angle.
acceptedesterday he the intelligence community's's conclusion that pressure interfered in the elections as an added it could be other people also. >> where do i begin? our reporter was in the room when the president said no in response to the question this morning. understood at the way jeff flake understood it and the way i understood it. trump was responding to the question, he wasn't saying no more questions. i do not find sarah huckabee verification very credible. joe: regardless of what trumps it here or what sarah huckabee sanders interprets asian -- interpretation was throughout all of this, trump seems much blame cast too toward russia about anything. >> course. spoke from president the heart on monday. i think he was honest on monday when he said, when he stood next
to the russian president and he questioned whether russia metals in the election at all and the u.s.d investigation now led by special counsel robert mueller. everything he has said since monday has been a pretty, frankly, bad attempt at cleanup. literally yesterday, to quote a friend of mine who tweeted this, he literally walked back the walk back during the walk back. i want tong else point out that sanders talked about today was vladimir putin's's proposal that russian authorities question several u.s. citizens, including bill, a frequent antagonist of the russian president, but also a former u.s., ambassador to russia. do we know about the real possibility that that could happen? i said don't think it will happen.
but sarah huckabee sanders answer to the question today was not great either. the right answer to the question is the president ruled it out here instead, so she suggested he is taking it under consideration and said he will meet with his team, suggesting he is actually considering that. i do not think he is to what will he do, arrest the former ambassador of moscow for unspecified crimes and hands them over to russians? of course not. but again, this is the white house just not handling things very well, not answering questions very well. >> i want to go back to the walk back. reporting is really interesting on this front. the president only made the comments after interventions from his own staff, mike and an mike pompeo. >> think the president was completely comfortable with what he said in helsinki. again, he spoke from the heart and he spoke truthfully about what he actually thinks in helsinki. i think you was completely
comfortable with what he said until, i think he was even powerful with press coverage, probably, until mike pence an mike pompeo came to him and suggested he try and clean it up. >> thank you. some interesting insight into the dynamics inside the white house now. the bloomberg news editor alix. shares of united continental on course for their best day in two years after the airline boosted its full-year forecast. the hour.r stock of abigail doolittle joins us to tell us about it. applico: it is impressive to her they are dodging the trend other airlines have been flying on, which is that they have boosted the full-year outlook. in april, we had american airlines bring it down. last week, delta brought it down. united airlines really talking the trend. they beat estimates and in terms of the full year, they brought the high and 12% above guidance. it has to do with revenue per passenger. we can hop in quickly and see ant is happening on both
international basis, a look at revenue for the airline industry, and domestic, we seek to up quarters which suggests the increasing capacity will not outstrip it. is about their unique position? >> great question. the ceo, whom -- whose name i hope i'm saying correctly, says this has to do with the growth plan. one thing is they are bolstering flights out and another piece is they are improving a computer system. this has really caught me off guard. seats andpleasure apparently, that is really helping results here. back fromalso stepped the view that they gave at the beginning of the year, 4-6% up 5%, and if we hopped back, lest take a look at this relative to the other two airlines. what we're looking at in white is united continental. orange, oil is up, a big drag
and delta and american airlines have talked about that being a problem. like anally looks edit's strategic initiative helping them eat some of these that have been dogging the other two airlines. we do have a headline crossing, at&t, the us government asking the circuit court to extradite its appeal against at&t and time warner at the -- acquisition, or merger i should say. judgeer richard leon, the , originally ruled in the favor of the merger and the government repealed that position and is asking that the circuit court expedite the appeal. >> that is because at&t's article on its acquisition of time warner and it is unclear. it is somewhat unprecedented that there would be an unwind of the deal in some way. even though it has already happened. the shares barely moving on
dance we look at the headlines. >> abigail was talking about headlines. the industry had something for everyone including those of you was airline travel. we take a tour of the only aviation fund. etf's. global jet better-known by its ticker. getting access to the global aviation industry, ranging from operators to aircraft manufacturers from all of the world, including a small, mid-cap and large-cap, and two thirds comes from large u.s. passenger airlines. southwest united continental and delta each count for about 12%. other holdings include going and general dynamics. some $90 million in assets and the 60 basis points is not cheap but it is the only perk -- direct approach for the industry. 20%.und has returned about a green light in this system
nasdaq. the closes just barely in the green. as i mentioned, financials and industrials have indeed led gains. that has to do with what we had on the earnings front. notable transport in the industrials group. we just heard about the united continental. we had other strong earnings on there is well and within the financials. let's look at some of the gains.
csx was notable. concerns after the railroad legend hunter harrison passed away in december. he had been leading csx and his successor seems to be a steady hand on the rains here. that is as the company comes down with any patients he number that is a record for a u.s. railroad. profit is well above analyst estimates. morgan stanley signaled that investors may soon get the benefit from buybacks on the company. it has not been their practice to buy back shares, but remember, warren buffett has had trouble finding places to have his cash. a lot of consumer staples are weeks today. goldman sachs is cutting its view of households saying they are too expensive, even though the have not been out
performers. and, investors should expect to percent relative evaluation derating over the next year. in particular, clorox's cut on earnings risk and unsustainably high relative valuation. hit cores.rgan that the secondfter quarter earnings were cut to reflect current to move as well as the latest scanner data trend. given all of that, analysts are saying second-quarter estimates appear to optimistic. maybe more talk to come for the consumer stable companies. joe: let's take a look at the government bond market. today,and 10 year unchanged on the day. today was day two of powell. not many huge revelations on macro standpoint. the 10 year yield is up to 2.88. it had been earlier in the day -- lower in the day earlier.
everyone istheme focusing on is the flattening trend of the 210 spread continuing. that is unabated. scarlet: let's look at currencies. the dollar had gains and gave back some of it. as you can see, higher by a 10th of 1% over the last two days read pound was the worst reforming currency versus the dollar. that is after u.k. inflation raisings forecasts questions whether the bank of england will move forward with an interest rate increase in august. if you look at the pound over the dollar, it is at a new low over 2018. holding just above the psychological important $1.30 level. chinese yen fell compared to the dollar. they are comfortable with the weakness they see in the currency. it is the worst-performing asian currency down about 4.7% in
that. -- 4.7% in that period. julie had mentioned earlier with michael mckee about how president trump said the u.s. may do a trumpet saved -- separate trade deal with canada. views on how the currency is faring against the dollar. they both took lower following the remarks. joe: let's take a look at commodities starting with oil. we see green across the board. oil, after getting hit last week, is up in recent days over 1%. gold is not really doing anything flat. zinc is up 3.6%. put in, i want to perspective how ugly gold is. look at the drop-off read it has been lower earlier in the day. just a brutal plunge if you are a goldbug, or gold bull.
it has not been a pleasant few months. those are today's market minutes. julie: breaking news on earnings. american express out with its numbers coming up at the -- coming a penny ahead of estimates. revenue is pretty much in line with estimates. $1 million versus the billion by analysts here. it looks like the company is reaffirming its guidance for the full year at the high end of estimates. what is interesting, the important perspective in the amex decline, the stock was trading at a record today. some high expectations going into earnings. the shares are only up about 5% or so this year. that is enough to push it to a record. we look for numbers on loan growth as well. anythingee if it has on revenue trends in particular. we will keep looking through the statement to see if we have anything on the loan front to bring to you. scarlet: let's move on to ibm.
the company reporting results for the second quarter. you can see the stock is trading lower by .6%. revenue beat analyst estimates. ibm also reaffirmed its outlook for the 2018 session as well. in terms of the forecast, it is looking for at least $13.80. and cash flow of about $12 billion. ibm coming in with the beat, but it reaffirms its 2018 forecast, does not raise it. change has been down on the stock. let's see how this shakes up as we continue to go through these reports. for more on today's market action, but spring in the global head of equity derivatives strategy at the berkeley. when you look at earnings s, morgan stanley top it off with a broad report.
we are hearing from tech companies, the biggest sector in the u.s. economy getting ready to reports. have expectations gone too high or are they being justified by the numbers we see? >> i think they are a tad high. what happens is that when you are far from the earnings date, earnings are optimistic and converge back to it. they are attended high. ok, butrter is perhaps at the end of the year, i think they will monitor it a little bit. the eps will be 157 or so. joe: the stock market, after off e, itg this rang appears to have momentum. some people were talking about the 2800 level and now we are holding above it tenuously. have we sort of gotten out of this rut in your view? maneesh: i think so.
our target for the end of the year is around 2900. that is where we will end up. we're modestly optimistic right now. muchn't think there is too here because of the fact we are entering the late stage of the cycle to keep us cap. joe: why haven't we seen trade war stuff weigh on the market more? maneesh: it's a bit of a conundrum. for a couple of reasons, if you look at numbers in the trade war with china and what would it would do -- what it would do, earnings will not be too much. we estimate something like a blackout trade war with all tariffs on imports and exports around 10%, the only have one or 2% impact on earnings. so the impact is not too big. it could also change sentiment, which is a different story. the second thing, as you know, the u.s. economy is humming along very well. there's too much momentum,
perhaps from a sugar high from the tax cuts from the physical spending -- fiscal spending that is happening. heard less discussion going into this earnings season about the peak earnings growth question that caterpillar raised in the first quarter. it seems that there was this explosion of worry about it and it went away. should that have gone away? is that still a concern? maneesh: i don't think they are peaking in hurling's -- in earnings. earnings are high because of the tax cut. should move to about 10% in the next year. that is normal. it will still take a couple of years before the cycle will end. i don't think it is completely peaking, but we sovereign to grow. scarlet: no one is saying it is peak earnings anymore. they are not worried anymore after the caterpillar remark. how much credence do you put into what the forecast indicates
and what companies say about the second half when clearly there is so much uncertainty related to the trade war that there is not much visibility? things could turn on a dime. not being the best example because it is more tech, can you really believe they have any special insight? maneesh: i think the question really is if the trade war happens, what will it do to the interest outlook. the actual impact of the tariffs will not be used like i said. if it leads the cios and ceos to hose off investments, that would have a lasting effect. scarlet: and they won't know until it happens. julie: i want to bring in our ah.or -- al co they are $.20 above the average and analyst estimates.
other things above estimates as well. ebada is above estimates as well. 945 money and dollars was the estimate from analysts on that front. million was the estimate from analysts on that front. they are caught on these back-and-forth's on tariffs and what is interesting about alcoa, it produces more aluminum outside of the country than inside of the country. is.united states that it has a view not only on the affect of the tariffs making benefits on its pro-dex is -- the mystic production, but also negative affect it could have on its production out of the united states. in april, the company talked about aluminum growth up five and a quarter percent -- 5.25%. scarlet: the company did not say
anything in the statement. what it noted was the new forecast reflects market prices, increased energy costs, and it goes on to say that, last quarter, $50 million of tariffs for u.s. sale. primarily from canada with the tariffs became effective on june 1. you don't have commentary on it. julie: the company also looks like it is cutting its rejection 3% to 3.2%.the they say it is due to current market prices and other factors. we will keep going through this and see if we can get any other insight into the tariff affects effectsult of this -- as a result of this. usm barclays will stay with -- from barclaysnde
>> i'm mark crumpton with first word news. president trump says he may prioritize a bilateral trade deal with mexico over canada. he is building a good rapport with mexico's president-elect. he said the u.s. and mexico are in his words "getting closer to reaching a trade deal." and the administration may have separate talks with canada earlier -- later. onmight breakup nafta talks separate tracks with canada and mexico. weston turkey has denied a request from the release of custody of u.s. based minister on trial on charges of aiding terror groups and espionage.
is an evangelical pastor from north carolina and was arrested in a 20 16 coup from pkk as well as a network led by muslim clerics who turkey blames for the unrest. >> we are disappointed in the results of the hearing. i've read the indictment, i have attended three hearings, i don't believe there is any indication that pastor brunson is guilty of any sort of criminal or terrorist activity. >> prosecutors are seeking a 15 year prison sentence for crimes he is charged with committing in the name of the group and the pkk. puerto rico's power company is named the third ceo in two weeks -- has named to third ceo in two weeks.
hundreds remain in the dark since hurricane maria struck last month. the category four storm destroyed up to 75% of puerto rico's trans prediction lines -- transportation lines. posey said his priority is reach a deal with editor than result the $9 million in public debt. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton read this is bloomberg. scarlet: we continue to monitor results from companies to read even is coming out with its second quarter's numbers. they are topping analyst estimates. anywhereking at from $.50 to $.53. if you look at revenue, that's misses the mark by a hair. analysts were looking for 2.6 6
million for the. . in terms of the outlook -- for the period. in terms of the outlook, it is not a great eat in the terms of expectations people had. is what is estimated. joe: that may explain the 4% selloff read -- selloff. julie: we have maneesh deshpande estimating your global target and you derivatives so you can allow your self hedging. i'm curious what level of that you all are employing right now versus earlier in the year or say a year ago. maneesh: things have gotten a little better because, if you think about the way the administration has sequenced actions, it is very important. they did the good things first. then it has tried to do the
trade protectionism. a firstyou have positive tailwind from what has happened so far, that is another reason why it has not been as bad. , but soow it is going far so good. joe: directionality of the market aside, are you surprised by how subdued volatility has gotten once again? a few months ago it was like, we are in the new higher volatility regime, and people were probably looking at what happened before, but we seem to be back to the good old days. iseesh: the thing to realize that 12 is not abnormal. that is a normal thing when the market is valuing. the numbers being a 12 is not that unusual. joe: we got even a, and i feel that there are two markets. there are markets and then tech stocks.
they are separate from trade read their separate from macro -- trade. they are separate from macro as well. what about tech specifically and the optimism baked into their? -- there? are all the reason we right is that other than a few notks, the valuation is that extreme. you have had very strong price points, but they are justified for earnings. we do not see a reason for that to stop. scarlet: what would change that view? i understand netflix is not a se, stock or say, -- per but the numbers were not what investors were looking for. if you have big tech ties missing the market, does that change your thesis? maneesh: it will certainly. earnings momentum is a key factor we look at. insteads a broad sector
of individual stocks, evaluations are not crazy. close to are nowhere what they were back in 98 or 99. this time around, stock prices have gone up and are driving most of the index, but it is real earnings, so it is not that bad of the story. julie: let's talk about financials. this has been one of the other darlings. a lot of people that come in to talk, they like financials. they did not perform in june. initially, the earnings have been roughly supportive and there has been inflows into the xls. are you encouraged enough by the big banks we have heard from us far that you can extrapolate to the rest of the financials? maneesh: for the financials, the reason they have underperformed is because of the flattening of the yield curve. people think the curve is very important as an element. julie: but that is not new. that has been going on. maneesh: yes, what if you look
at the inflection point, you start to worry. what i was going to say is based on -- what really drives national stocks is not just yield curve, but the levels as well. the administration seems to be a much more lenient -- much more .enient high regulations should also drive performance as well. scarlet: yeah, it grates -- creates this aura of bullishness. maneesh deshpande director had at berkeley, they do so much. it is time for the weekly segment smartcards with abigail doolittle where he look at timely topics through the prism of charts. abigail? >> joining me today is the chief market strategist over at partners. one thing really a call me i -- my eye is volatility for oils.
we're down more than 1% close and it is up and down. if you look at the down lake looking at today aside, i'd you connect that to the s&p 500? >> oil has been volatile. it has been up more than 45%, but what has caught our eye is the separation of oil and oil stocks. when we look at the oil stocks, we look at the s&p 500 energy sector. this is the one your chart. on the top line, we have oil and we make higher highs. you have another new high in may and january. give a final high earlier this month. -- you have a final high earlier this month. highs andto see new oil was making a new high in may and july. to us, that is a little concerning.
we ask is, does oil pullback or do energy stocks push higher? abigail: what is the answer for that? i would wondering that myself -- i was wondering that myself. >> the way the index is calculated, we are seeing energy stocks pushing higher. however, it is being masked by two large cap energy names. abigail: so let's stick a look at your next chart then. >> everyone talks about the areg stocks and they masking underlying weakness of the market, however, there is the complete opposite with the energy sector. we are the two largest energy names, they are responsible for 40% of the energy sector. abigail: that is interesting. >> those names are flat year to date. so they are the things of the energy sector -- they are the faangs of the energy sector in a negative way.
that is so interesting. talk to us about the start and how you -- >> when jumped up to us on the top is the s&p 500 energy sector. it is stalling at the new high. it could not break above the january hide. however, if you look at a ratio and an equal weight energy sector versus the in cap elated energy sector, on the bottom, you should equal weight sector is lifting higher. that shows the average stock is doing better than index itself. to us that means positive returns for energy. more stocks are doing better things. but is masked by the two large names. abigail: so you really want to do stockpicking in the energy sector. this would suggest you would do quite well. >> buying energy sector has not paid off, but buying individual stocks in the sector has paid off. going back to the first charge, they are listing higher with crude. abigail: let's go back to the first chart and look at a seasonality chart of oil. this could be the one reason to
be somewhat caution about -- cautious about putting aside bigs on and chevron. chevron. exxon and >> you have to take the cons with the pros. we like energy but the caveat is we are entering a. of seasonal weakness. the first half of the year or first quarter of the year, typically a little weaker, but then tailwinds push and higher into the summer months. we are coming into -- we are ending july here heading into august and that is typically where you see tailwinds turned to seasonal headwinds. we had to be careful and not to get too far over the skis. we like energy but we are entering a tough place. trading and investing is probably not the best idea here. abigail: that is interesting for sure. it's would make the case even more so for individual stocks. areooks like there
selective opportunities, especially in the trading front. -- thank youmuch so much. scarlet: thank you so much, abigail. recapping result your after the bell, ebay reported earnings. if you look at the forecast, and fall short a little. the cut its net revenue for full year. its guidance was 1.4% below the average estimate. it's eps for the full year also not as high. it did not beat the average analyst estimate. we could say it did not top it. the stock was down 1%. it had fallen earlier as far as 1% -- 4%. talk about all of these tech "high flyers," ebay is not on the list read the stock is only up about a half cent year to date. -- half percent year to date. it has underperformed relative. this is bloomberg.
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and it can be included with your internet. which could save you hundreds of dollars a year. plus, get $150 dollars when you bring in your own phone. its a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call or visit a store today. >> the white house says president trump would leave russia would target u.s. elections again saying the threat still exists. this comes hours after the president appeared to deny russia was still targeting the u.s.. a statement at odds from warnings of his top intelligence chief. the president was asked at the end of a cabinet meeting of russia was still targeting the u.s. he answered, "no." president ever as tough as i have been on russia. all you have to do is look at the numbers and look at what we have done. get sanctions, ambassadors, look at what happened in syria
recently unfortunately. i think president putin knows that better than anybody. certainly a lot better than the media. he understand he is not happy about it. he should not be happy about it. mark: federal prosecutors have asked a judge to keep accused russian agents before trial saying she traded sex for position in a special interest organization. asia faces federal charges she conspired he to establish a back channel between russians and american politicians during the last election cycle and operated as an unregistered agent of the russian federation in the you -- in the u.s. they're also accused of infiltrating the nra in a mission from the kremlin. thailand, the boys soccer team that was trapped in a flooded cave has left to the hospital. they join doctors and others who helped them while taking
questions from reporters. the doctors say on average, they each gained almost seven pounds since being rescued last week. thousands of residents in oregon and washington state have been forced from their homes because of rapidly growing wildfires. fire service officials say more than 130 wildfires are burning in organ alone. organnds of acres -- in -- in oregon alone. thousands of acres have been burned already. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is your first word news. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. specifically earnings after the bell. you're looking at the kleins in our code and american express. and american express. there was a slowdown in the topline accounting for the 2.9% drop. alcoa looks like the
numbers were beating estimates but they even doubt on estimates and they are cutting the forecast for the year. they are talking about tariffs. tariffs on imported aluminum increased energy costs and some operational impacts. this was something traders and analysts were quite curious about. what was alcoa's read going to be. we're still try to sift through everything, but what we can tell you about ebay is it and therevenue forecast eps forecast for the full year did not top the average analyst estimates either. -- are not asor strong as they could be but a turnaround in the share. outlookfirmed the saying they topped revenue
estimates 1.3%. julie: bringing the delivery process online, one of the most pressing issues. sarah, our opinion columnist has been writing about this and is joining us from washington. if you live in new york city, you end up ordering a lot of stuff online. a lot of companies have indeed gotten on data bandwagon. withare either partnering third-party delivery companies or brought things inside. as you point out, not everyone has caught on quite yet. why is this so important? >> basically because this is the only place where there can be any growth in the restaurant industry for the next several years. we've seen traffic is pretty stagnant at restaurants versus the last several years, and up until for the next at least 2022. the online growth is going to boom. it should be roughly 20% growth for the next several years. grubhub, uber each, and others
habituated consumers to using delivery for occasions that they would not previously have used it for. now restaurants have to adapt to that. would they have to go to consumers at their doorstep. -- they have to go to consumers at their doorstep. joe: are they building their own delivery systems or are they partnering more often with some of the debris tore grubhub's -- uber eats or grubhub's? some have built it in-house and one company is getting to a place where it could be profitable. a more common approach is working with the third-party third-parties. donald says it is bring them incremental business. scarlet: when you outsource to a third party, you can hit the tappingunning and start the other companies infrastructure, but at the same time, you beat yourself a little
on her ball. i think about babies r us how they outsourced their e-commerce operation and eventually got overwhelmed by amazon, which took a lot of market share. by saving the cost of not building out your own e-commerce platform for now, you don't get in that game at some point, it could come back to bite you -- onto. -- haunt you. sarah: that is exactly right. and relying on a third party, you lose a critical touch point with your consumers. ifyou work with mcdonald's, mcdonald's is no longer handing over the food to a customer, and uber eats driver is, building customer loyalty could be hard. the diners loyalty will be to the app. the always use uber eats, seamless, as opposed to the restaurant. that could be a different dynamic to navigate. ands not unlike hotels airlines using places like
hotwire. julie: amazon has tried to develop its own restaurant delivery service. it hasn't seemed to catch on yet. amazon is seen as the big scary take her over of everything-- ta ker over of everything. has a commanding lead over all of the other third-party services. there are other categories. maybe amazon is in their. sarah: amazon is pretty small in that space so far. i think there are more focused on grocery and when they build out a network for delivering groceries, becca be applicable to restaurants as well. they certainly have not been a leader in the space. grubhub has commanded that market share. a lot of the way they have done a is buying competitors. they bought 824 and seamless -- eat24 and seamless. joe: we've been talking a lot
about papa john's and the struggles they are having. one of their competitors you mentioned here in your column, dominoes came public about the same month as google in one of the most amazing stocks of the whole time. at much of their story is tech story and them having figured out the new way of pizza delivery? sarah: i would say that is the core of their success story. 60% of their sales are digital. they are on track for much more than that. they really have -- it is such a cliche to say any retailer is a tech company and also a pizza company, a domino's is a rare case where that is kind of true. they are modeled the rest of the industry can look to on how you can do this successfully. it is about building infrastructure and having an in enging -- in gauging -- gaging service. scarlet: we have from the example of retailers that
investors tend to punish companies who margins -- whose margins suffer if they are spending on that platform. sarah: it is hard to say, and i think it will very chain my chain. if you look at a chain or that ownske brinker chilies, the casual dining sector is so distressed. i think they're investors would say we can try anything we can to reach more diners. where, perhaps in the casual space for a company like darden where olive garden is part of their portfolio, investors will say this is working fine, why do we have to get into the delivery space which is a potential challenge to profit. scarlet: sarah, -- sarah halzack, thank you. i don't know how you would be able to do the bottomless
breadsticks in olive garden. julie: they would just keep coming to your door. joe: get involved in the conversation, go to twitter. this is my page. send me a tweet, what you want to know, i post links and videos, and you can let me know what you want to add. scarlet: we want to know about the bottomless breadsticks. maybe they just linger in the bushes. [laughter] joe: this is bloomberg. ♪
to help us parse the data, he is at indeed hiring labs. now, thank you so much for joining us. tell us about the confidence of american workers now. >> in the way of data from the jolts report, the people voluntarily leaving the job is at a level we have not seen since 2001. the indication is that if you are quitting the job, you are pretty confident you can get a new one or have one lined up. that is a good sign that people are finding new jobs already or think they can get one quickly. joe: one of the things we have seen is that job quitters or people that go from one job to another, they get paid more, pay hikes faster than the people staying at their own job and try to negotiate with their boss. given this is increasing, people quitting her job out of confidence, why aren't we seeing
that move the needle more on wages? why do we have this disparity where people are quitting a job in feeling good, and basically every part of the labor market is saying tightness and confidence except for the wage number. nick: that has to do with what measure of wage growth you're looking at. the average hourly earnings number from the employment situation reported that we see every month, there has been research that shows compositional effects. some of the people getting hired have lower income wages than the average. but that does is pull down the average. that masks some of the growth that we see from other workers. i want to play a clip that was from the powell hearings earlier. keith ellison, a representative from another state talks about depressing wages. >> we have highly concentrated
markets these days. when you talk about market concentration, in this particular economy, it seems a gallery industry you look at, they have highly concentrated markets. for example, amazon, how they are dominating online retailers, if you look at searches, or look at what amazon is doing, whatever it is, it seems like the other side of a monopoly has a limited number of buyers of labor which makes it easier for them to simply hold wages down. that question was obviously addressed to chairman powell, but since you're here, i'm curious what your perspective is on this. the role of corporate --centration monotony monopsony in the wage rate. nick: this is an area where labor economists and academic
rome are increasingly looking at as a source of low wage growth. one way to look at this to put it in terms of a quick rate is if there are fewer employers, you have fewer options to quit and get a new job. that gives perhaps a little more bargaining power to employers. while we have seen the rate at a , the data only goes back to the end of 2000. research that looks for the rates higher in the 90's. the question is whether that is a structural story meaning perhaps this phenomenon is related to it, or if it is a cyclical issue and a tighter labor market could get rates back up to what we saw during that type of labor market. joe: have you seen a big increase in scholarship and researchers trying to identify the impact of this dynamic? nick: yes read in the last year
or so, see a few papers that looked at measures of concentration, using statistics that are usually for looking at monopolies to figure out in the local labor markets, do we have these concentration of employers that have some evidence of impact on wages. joe: obviously the labor market tightness, you expect to see white hate -- rate hikes, how else to employers respond to increased could rate -- quit rate? increase quitting is a sign of confidence and workers. i think one potential response is that if employers really employees, current there could be wage gains there. giving increases to workers already at the firm in the hopes they can make sure they do not
selling prescription drugs through the internet worried unlike rivals who are focusing on one health issue, hymns once to create a brand that serves men on many other fronts. here with more is our tech reporter. all over the subway in new york city for this thing, hymns. they are cryptic and does not say what it does. what is this suite of products they are offering? >> right now they have erectile dysfunction drugs, acne, and-aging cream, rogaine propecia. anything that is a prescription medication and health and wellness focused, is their marketing. julie: and they are all generics right? >> yes. --rlet: josie's these ads joe sees these ads downtown, i
do not see them in midtown, how do people get -- men get these drugs? >> the reason why hims was able to come out was because a lot of laws have come out in the u.s.. it is a sweet spot to jump into the market. you might see the ad, go online, fill out a form, and a doctor looks at that. you don't have to even talk to a doctor via skype or phone. if it is for hair loss, you send them a couple of pictures for your airline. i tried out the antiaging cream but it has yet to arrive yet. julie: you look very young. >> the doctors properly likewise he asking for this? [laughter] they want to start men at my age early. when you look at the advertising, they are focused on millennials. joe: who are the doctors? do they work for hims or is it an work -- is it a network? gerrit: they get paid on an
hourly basis. when i was running with this company, i had a lot of questions asking if there is any incentive. they seem to be doing things well. the advertising has no disclosures about prescription drugs. it is light, normal, prescription ad. ofy are playing on this line advertising versus what they are actually selling. scarlet: they'll have the 32nd cond ad.0 se julie: is that seen as a potential stumbling brock -- block? gerrit: there has been a lot of debate as these blocks have opened up allowing more people to prescribe things online. at this point, they are definitely above or. theoke to experts and
doctors and it seems like the thing they advertise will work well for telemedicine. a hairline ande make a good diagnosis of that. if they are growing, they will run into categories that are a little more regulated. scarlet: who is the genius behind hims? >> a guy named andrew is this typical startup guy. scarlet: but he is not a medical guy? gerrit: he is not a medical guide. he has been looking at this for a couple of years trying to find a way into men's health, men's wellness, and his sister said, she took her credit card and bought all of this antiaging cream and he said this is all in french, what bag is this. a lot of dudes want that and are starting to think about it. but they are like i do not want to google it or talk to my doctor or girlfriend. he is trying to build a website for them. julie: interesting. thank you gerrit. you can check it our prognosis page -- check out our process
page on bloomberg.com. for the bloomberg business flash, a snapshot of some of the biggest business stories in the news. one group wants to make a comeback in the hottest segment of the credit market. seven months ago, blackstone dissolve the partnership with their investment partners. since then it has made bank loans to small and midsize companies. they plan to amass $10 billion of equity and debt capital over the next several months. steve ballmer became famous for his high-energy performances while he was ceo for microsoft. the billion or -- billionaire has not changed. i yell and scream and become a little more moderate so i preserve my vocal cords. it certainly can be a problem when you're yelling, yeah, let's
go. it can be an issue. i like the little taste of the ballmer energy. you can watch the entire interview on the david rubenstein show on 9 p.m. new york time on bloomberg tv. scarlet: that is just below the surface. julie: he was ready to explode there. [laughter] that is your business flash update read joe: coming up, -- update. joe: coming up, what you need to know for your trading day tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ g. ♪
scarlet: "what'd you miss?" u.s. starks largely gained although the nasdaq -- oh look, it didn't do it. a little change there. don't miss the blackstone reports before the bell. joe: and i look at numbers at a: 30 a.m. eastern. julie: microsoft with earnings after the close of trading as well. scarlet: that does it for "what'd you miss?" bloomberg technology is next. joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪
emily: i'm emily chang. and this is "bloomberg technology." google slapped with a $5 billion fine from eu antitrust regulators. european union competition commissioner joins us ahead. plus, he is known for not holding back. we will hear from the former microsoft ceo and current l.a. clippers owner, steve