tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg July 23, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
in washington, d.c. this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." shery: there are the top stories we are watching. andident donald trump iranian president rouhani are exchanging inflammatory words. midterm election watch, we will hear from republican congressman urbelo, who has introduced legislation on climate change. changes forcedcy the boj to purchase an unlimited amount of bonds. president trump is turning his all caps ire towards iran.
last night, he took to twitter to address iranian president rouhani saying, never, ever threaten the u.s., or you will suffer consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. be cautious. started sundayds -- words started sunday. saying in a speech, rouhani, warning america. joining us is a former u.s. intelligence analyst and trade attache to saudi arabia. thank you for your time. this seems similar to what happened in the lead up to that summit with north korean leader kim jong-il in. are we heading to -- kim jong-un? are we heading to an iranian
summit? >> i think we are far away from that. what this administration has been incredibly aggressive against iran. in may, the administration pulled out of the iran deal. you were seeing the economy of iran affected immediately. it is about foreign investment. it is about american and european countries no longer doing business in iran. that is the goal of this administration. this administration is not always aligned on its messaging. this week, we are saying secretary of state mike pompeo and ambassadors and the national security adviser and the president on message against iran. kevin: take a listen to what secretary of state mike pompeo said this weekend. >> the ayatollahs are in on the act too. they seem more concerned with
riches than religion. schemes toevised become the wealthiest men on earth while there people suffer. kevin: to your point, john bolton, the national security adviser said i spoke to the president, and he told me that if iran does anything at all to the negative, they will pay a price like few others before. it sounds like the administration is now speaking on the same page. i totally agree. when you look at what happened since the administration pulled out of the jcpoa, you are seeing teachers, union workers, policemen protesting against this administration because what happened when the iranian regime got billions of dollars of relief from the obama administration, the people of iran were told this money was going to come to you. what happened is the iranian regime lined their pockets and
funded their iran revolutionary guard to pursue their various military and intelligence exploits around the world. while the iranian people have been standing up for the past year, this is what has scared the administration the most. to mr. bolton's statement earlier, if iran does anything at all to the negative, what could that be? morgan: i think they left it intentionally ambiguous. the president with the all caps message put the regime on notice this morning that this administration is taking their focus away from north korea and focusing more on iran. over the weekend, there were reports coming out of israel that they thwarted an iranian attack against iranian dissidents in france. that gives this administration
and opening to try to get the europeans on the same page, to say don't do business with this regime, help us keep them out of the mainstream of the world. kevin: no major u.s. financial institution is doing significant if any business at all with iran. aware that the u.s. is trying to curtail oil exports. the price of oil has been taking up a little bit as a result of this news. why do you think that is? morgan: the price of oil is based on the geopolitical risk that investors are seeing. i think we will continue to see that. i think this administration clearly has provoked the iranians when they are trying to protect their exports. that is 60% of the iranian economy. they are facing significant
downturn in the economy. against is 65% lower the u.s. dollar . this administration senses vulnerability in iran because they are having the average citizen stand up and protest like we haven't seen since the beginning of the obama administration when we had the green revolution. shery: if the price of oil goes up as you said and higher price of the pond, isn't this a mp, isn'te -- at the pu this a vulnerability in the u.s. going into the midterms? morgan: absolutely. nobody ever wants a higher price of gas the day before the election. what this administration is going to have to do is they are going to have to communicate with the american people why they are pursuing these actions against iran, why they are pursuing a trade war.
there is a lot to communicate to the voters, and certainly the price of gas is going to affect how people vote. kevin: we have a lot more coming up on the price of gas because representative carlos curbelo will have that interview later today. morgan ortagus, managing director at global opportunity advisors. shery: we have higher prices of oil, but the energy sector is still falling. abigail doolittle is here with the latest. mixedl: we are looking at markets for the major averages. the dow is down slightly, on pace for its third down day in a row. the nasdaq had also been lower. we are seeing a little moved to the upside. small moves. that reversal is not surprising. take a look at the 10-year yield , it is up six basis points. there is not any sort of haven bid, suggesting maybe money
flows will go into stocks. because we have yields higher, that is affecting sector compositions. up.s&p 500 is on bottom we have two of the bigger banks. investors hopeful that as yields rise, that could help interest .arkets for these banks margin yields helping the dollar. take a look at this cha using the gtbrt function. -- gtv function. in white is the dollar index. this goes back to february of 2017. ink up to levels we saw
february 2017 as the dollar recovers. that may suggest dollar strength continues. we are seeing strength in shares of paypal. it is up 0.3%. it is up more than 2% from lows. taken the stake in paypal. this could be a $125 stock within 18 months and above consensus earnings. that is pretty remarkable. shery: thank you so much for that. news right now. president trump is set to speak to repeal california emissions, the president has tried to roll emissions and fuel economy standards. california has their own stringent air quality standards. breaking news that president trump is set to seek to repeal
shery: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i am shery ahn in new york. kevin: i am kevin cirilli in washington. let's get a check of the news with mark crumpton. mark: thank you. president trump is taking to aim at two familiar targets in the u.s., amazon and the washington post. both are controlled by the richest person in the world, jeff bezos. the president says the post is nothing more than an expensive lobbyist for amazon. he says many people believe amazon should face antitrust charges. shares of amazon are following today.
a judge in alexandria, virginia, is considering postponing the trial of paul manafort. the judge says it is too late to review evidence produced by the government. manafort is charged with failing to disclose offshore accounts and must also defend against charges that he lied to banks to secure $120 million in loans. in toronto, police say a gunman walked along the street sunday night firing a handgun into restaurants and cafes, shooting 14 people and killing two. the gunman was killed in a shootout with police. the mass shooting comes three months after a driver of a van plowed into pedestrians on a toronto sidewalk, killing 10 and injuring 14 others. hundreds of firefighters across europe are heading to sweden to fight some of the worst fires
the country has ever seen. more than two dozen fires are burning across sweden. soaring temperatures and a deep ht are making it tough to battle the flames. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. the helsinki meeting did not move polls. president trump faced criticism from both sides of the aisle after his one-on-one meeting with president putin last week. outside of washington, president trump's approval rating is higher, rising to 45% according since june.l, up 1% let's bring in timothy frye, columbia university professor of post-soviet russia studies.
the american people don't seem to mind the helsinki meeting. how successful was present putin in driving a wedge between president trump and his political allies in washington? timothy: i think the important thing to keep in mind is that many of the trump administration policies that have caused bad relations with congress and nato were not so much due to russian policy as due to president trump's personal preferences. many commentators have said president trump's antagonism towards nato is not driven so much by russian tactics as president trump's long-standing skepticism towards nato. kevin: that skepticism towards nato is rooted in something the president campaigned on, which is pay your fair share of nato. said thisster may
week and a half ago when they had that joint presser that the president heads to helsinki with the full support of nato and additional funding. help us sift through the rhetoric and the politics and the policy. nor in terms of the alliance with nato, no? timothy: i don't think those things have changed. the important thing to keep in russia, for many years, has tried to drive a wedge between nato and the united states. has long-standing skepticism towards nato. he says nato allies are not pulling their fair share because they have reached the 2% threshold. i don't think many people have asked whether it is a good idea to increase defense spending in europe at this time. mr. trump has been brilliant in
paying the issue as their fair share, but maybe the money should be better spent on refugee policy, on shoring up policies to reduce the impact of globalization. many people have said this is a great win for trump because supposedly the allies have said they will increase defense spending, but that is really a. hic victorya pyrr because the main threat to europe is from difficult relations between brussels and the u.s. shery: if defense spending would be increased among nato allies, where would that be used? can they even afford to do that? following the14, russian annexation of crimea, nato allies pledged to increase defense spending. there has been momentum towards this for a long time. mr. trump has been good at
claiming credit for a trend that has been ongoing since 2014. it is difficult for allies in germany to pursue a policy so ardently proposed by mr. khan because mr. trump is -- mr. trump because mr. trump is so unpopular in europe. even countries like germany that could afford to spend more. kevin: in terms of really linking the developments on iran and russia. i am curious what your thoughts are on that. does this have any connection with what we are seeing with russia? timothy: i don't think so. i think russia has been very good about improving relations across the middle east. russian relations with israel
are better than any point in their history. russia has good relations with countries as diverse as saudi arabia, where they have talked and cooperated on keeping oil price stable. they have good relations with iran, where they sell weapons and give technical advice. putin has been very adept at building relations in a very difficult region with countries as diverse as saudi arabia and iran. this is all helped by the u.s. pullback from the region. shery: enhancing the u.s. relation ship with russia is not welcomed by anybody, especially when it comes to a second meeting. republicanen to this strategist. >> i don't think we want any more meetings with donald trump and president putin. president trump has a good message on tax cuts, the economy, and jobs.
any time one of these summits comes up, it distracts from that message. republicans want to talk about pocketbook issues. shery: what would be achieved by another meeting? timothy: i think that is right. hole, there in a usual advice is to stop digging. view,oscow's point of they are in favor of further dialogue as they have said. it is a great win for president putin whenever he appears on stage with president trump. the russian economy is not in great shape right now. it is stuck at 1% or 2% growth looking into the future. the benefits of the annexation of crimea are starting to wear down. they are beginning to implement pension reform, which is unpopular. anytime present putin appears on stage with the leader of a great
power, this place well domestically. they have not agreed to a new summer. they said they are considering a proposal because they are trying to figure out which russia policy they are dealing with, trump's accommodationist line toward russia or the more aggressive line advocated in congress. shery: thank you very much. timothy frye, columbia university professor of post-soviet policy. erik: still ahead -- kevin: still ahead, tariff talks. trade tensions are a threat to global growth. we will get a recap next. this is bloomberg. ♪
washington, d.c. trade dominated discussion at the g20 as well financial leaders joined together in a aires.-- beuenos what do you make of what treasures secretary mnuchin said yesterday? >> it is interesting that he said to not overanalyze what we say, every single word. that is of course what we do. kevin: it's what we are good at. >> that is what we are doing. we are analyzing and looking at the trade disputes and trying to take care of them, he said. that interesting he said because they are walking the --
i think hearing from the eu and saying we are not shooting but they too are head, and others -- a gun to our head, and other saying this has been in the mix for decades. shery: mexico is pushing for a nafta agreement at the end of august. how likely is that? >> the mexicans definitely seem to have talks picking up this week with the first ministerial meeting since the mexican election. befores have a window the outgoing administration is done, which is on december 1. canada is not involved at all right now. we are not hearing from the u.s. side that they are willing to drop what the u.s. business community considers poison pills. it is hard to see how an agreement can come together by
the end of august with many outstanding chapters that have not been revisited at all because of these poison pills in the room. shery: thank you so much for that. that is our bloomberg trade reporter. coming up next, find his own party when it comes to a carbon tax. we will hear from republican congressman carlos curbelo next. this is bloomberg. ♪
gaining ground in the afternoon session. we have financials and health care leading the gains. the energy sector still underperforming a little bit despite the fact that we have higher oil prices due to rising tensions between the u.s. and iran. we have a mixed earnings season so far. the dow flat at the moment. bloomberg first word news. mark: thank you. bloomberg has learned the trump administration will try to revoke california's authority to regulate automobile emissions, including its mandate for electric car sales. proposed revision of obama era standards is expected to be released this week. it would also put the brake on federal rules to boost fuel efficiency into the next decade and instead would cap federal fuel economy requirements at the
2020 level. a boat that sank in in missouri like and killed 17 people has been raised. it happened after a thunderstorm raised near hurricane strength winds. the national transportation safety board and u.s. coast guard are investigating. french president emmanuel macron remains out of sight today after in a was caught on camera striking a protester at a paris rally. president macron has canceled some public events in recent days. after hewas fired was released of him manhandling protesters. in japan, a deadly heat wave continues to grip parts of the country. temperatures reached 106 degrees fahrenheit, breaking previous records.
scorching heat has been going on for nearly two weeks. nearly 40 people have died in japan and about 10 in south korea. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. as mark was just telling us, president trump looking to repeal admissions fighting efforts in california. this comes as discouraging the use of fossil fuels is top of the agenda for some in congress. this seems like an outright assault on president obama's signature environmental program. >> is no doubt is. you continue to see fuel efficiency increasing across the fleet from large cars to trucks to small cars and electrics. the auto industry has argued for
a while that the obama rules were too costly and would be problematic and to challenging to meet. they had been lobbying the administration for over a year, and the administration is going to try to take a -- hatchet to them. just ais this political fight between the governor of california and president trump? >> politics certainly plays into it. it is a continuation of the trump versus jerry brown narrative we have seen so far on other issues. when it comes to the auto industry, while the auto industry would like some relief, they have stressed the administration not to go too far because alienating california long courtto a years
fight. kevin: what is the governor's office saying? >> they have said they will fight. there is already a lawsuit to try to overturn the previous epa chief scott brooks determination that the rules need to be changed. that is still playing out. you can expect legal challenges from environmental groups. this is the beginning of a long process that will begin to the next year and quite possibly longer. shery: how long until the white house puts its weight behind this proposal? not spokent trump is a lot about these rules during his time in office. it was a major push he made in detroit that his administration would take a look at these rules, but we have not heard a lot since then. kevin: thank you for being here.
i want to stick with what is going on in the energy sector because i talked to the house republican leading the efforts to discourage the use of fossil fuels. congressman and house member of the ways and means committee, carlos curbelo. rep. curbelo: this is legislation that recognizes the cost of carbon emissions and takes the revenue for one of the more popular ideas in our country, which is infrastructure investment. we know the current system to fund infrastructure is broken and insufficient. two popular and important constructs, infrastructure investment and reducing climate change to bring those together to get an important bill that could provide certainty for the future and relief for so many americans that are stuck in traffic congestion all over the country. from $57is is anywhere
billion to $100 billion revenue for infrastructure. rep. curbelo: we do that by repealing the discriminatory gas tax, state by lower and middle income americans who cannot afford the most fuel-efficient vehicles, electric vehicles that do not fill up at the hospital. we do away with that and recognize that there is a cost to carbon. that way we ensure everyone is treating to our country's infrastructure, people who are driving traditional post and people who are driving electric vehicles do not pay anything into the infrastructure fund. kevin: do you expect to get support on your bill? rep. curbelo: i do. this is a new concept on the republican side of the aisle,
but it is a conservative approach. to determinesumers what kind of future will run to have when it comes to energy in our country. this will accelerate the clean energy revolution we have witnessed in the past decade or so. throughepublican tax grover norquist says no carbon tax. this will raise the price at the pump consumers. this is not the time after tax reform. that is the argument against it. rep. curbelo: americans for tax reform analyzes tax policy in a vacuum. what i would say to that organization and any others that are summarily rejecting this idea is what is your solution to lower carbon dioxide emissions? in florida, we live at sea level and near the sea. rising sea levels are a concern for us.
my question to them is how are we going to invest in our countries in the structure, mitigate climate change, and build a more equitable tax code? kevin: you are talking about how climate change is arsenal to your constituents and your district that has felt the impact real-time. you know this. some folks in your party do not agree with that in my the question the validity of climate change. what sort of conservatism are you espousing? rep. curbelo: this is a new conservative movement. if you ask a young republican voter, 80% or 90% of them understand climate change is a real issue. because they are young they are more likely to see the impact. kevin: you are seeing the impact in your district. rep. curbelo: in south florida, it is a local issue. people are looking to members of congress to solve problems, to address major problems. we are seeing saltwater
intrusion into the everglades. that is where our freshwater drinking supply is in south florida. it is a real threat to our ability to live in the most beautiful part of the country. it is a local issue. it is a generational issue. younger americans want to see action on this issue. kevin: where is the president on this? rep. curbelo: the president, i orw, his top priority, two three, is infrastructure investment. i believe this is the only way this administration is going to get the types of investments in infrastructure that they promised when the president was campaigning in 2016. this might be the only issue where donald trump and hillary clinton agreed, that our country needs massive investments in venture structure -- infrastructure. this also has a great economic benefit because the better our
infrastructure, the more growth and opportunity. kevin: you are on the tax-writing committee in the house, gearing up for tax reform to point out in the coming weeks. -- 2.0 in the coming weeks. you don't anticipate this to be wrapped into tax 2.0 given that republican leadership is still against it? rep. curbelo: this is still a very early idea on the public inside of the aisle. we want to provoke a discussion and debate. this bill is open for a minute. if you can make it better, let's do that. republicans must have a solution for infrastructure investment and for climate change, and i think this is it. kevin: that was congressman carlos rebello, republican on the house ways and means committee. he is forcing the gas tax. interestingis an and sensitive subject.
shery: this is "bloomberg markets: balance of power." i am sure and in new york. -- shery ahn in new york. kevin: i'm kevin cirilli in washington. republicans are focusing their efforts on flipping seats that voted for the president and the 2016 election. one of those is in montana. it voted overwhelmingly for president trump. there to turn democratic senator
jon tester remains popular with his constituents. toning us now with his plan flip the state red is the republican challenger matt rosendale, who joins us from montana. thank you for joining us. i was looking at some of the polls. slightlyester edges higher than president trump in terms of approval rating. what are you going to do to flip the state? matt: i don't think it is going to take that much. jon tester has never achieved 50% in montana. he won his second election by 48%. as you mentioned, president trump won montana by 21%. he -- vice president pence is
going to come out for us on tuesday and wednesday. this campaign is going to get to be about the truth. jon tester has denied reality. dodd-frank has created major problems in our small community banks. obamacare has treated major problems with our small businesses. small groups have gone up anywhere from two to three to 400%. he has voted against the president's tax reform legislation, which put more money in every, just about, every montanan's pocket. he cannot continue to deny those realities. shery: very surprised that he emphasized president trump is coming to back you up, including the vice president. thate seeing some polls
testerting presiden jon ahead of the president's approval rating in montana. the people of montana want to see the presidents agenda move forward. they recognized jon tester has tried to obstruct it at every turn. from tax reform to regulatory reform to voting against supreme court nominees to character assassination on ronnie jackson, his last nominee for the veterans administration. were noty these polls part of the thousands and tens of thousands of people that attended a rally in great falls, montana, on july 5 and were cheering for the present. dodd-frank,entioned senator tester on the senate banking committee. he has been opposed to the
presidents trade policy. lots of farmers near state are not thrilled about the president has been negotiating entree. how would you urge the president on the issue of trade, particularly as it impacts agricultural parts of your state? matt: we are watching those trade negotiations very closely. i was pleased to see the european commission president was going to come to the u.s. this week to have discussions about the different tariffs. i watched as the president stood on canadian soil and invited everyone that was there talking about trade to remove all tariffs, to remove all subsidies, and no one stood forward to join him in that effort. the president is working right now to make sure we get fair trade agreements in place. china has been cheating the u.s. for decades, and we have done nothing about it.
they are concerned about how this is going to affect our farmers because agriculture is the number one industry in montana, but somebody has to be looking at for those same farmers that have not been getting a fair deal for a long time. president works for those long-term deals, short-term those farmers will suffer. if you get elected, what did you do for them? -- could you do for them? matt: that is part of this process. the commodity markets are continuing to fluctuate. whether we're talking about grains, precious metals, or food oil, they continue to fluctuate. we want to make sure we have fair trade agreements this for the producers and consumers of the u.s. kevin: it sounds like what you
are saying is what you are hearing among the republican base in montana is they trust the president and want to give him the way to negotiate despite what we are seeing in the markets, no? matt: they do. you have to be able to put all of your tools on the table and you begin the negotiation process. this is the benefit of having a business person in the executive's chair instead of a bureaucrat. whoave had too many people have had zero business background whatsoever. we finally have an administration were not only does the executive have a tremendous business background, but a lot of the people he is bringing with him do as well. i think that is critically important to the entire community. shery: would you back more subsidies or supports for the agricultural community? matt: i think we have to wait
until we continue to work these transactions and see that we can bring these other nations to the table to negotiate fair trade agreements before we talk about increasing subsidy. shery: thank you. matt rosendale, republican candidate in montana. yield surgingar under reports that the boj may be easing monetary policy. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪
bloomberg businessweek. anchoring the 10-year yield has not seem to work for mr. kuroda. -- absurdlyernment low. rue thatrough that -- tu japan has not succeeded in the goal of getting the economy stronger and inflation higher. the bank of japan has the goal of getting inflation above 2%. shery: how may times have we talked about that? >> decades. according to the latest reports, the core prices that exclude fresh food and energy, only up 0.2%. that is nowhere close to the goal. the bank of japan is meeting
next week, july 31. people will be wondering what they will say because we will be getting new explanations of where they think they are and where they think they are headed. will the bank of japan continue to assert that it is on track for 2%? people will think they are not in touch with reality. shery: that is made global trade tensions. import have lowered prices. that is not getting them anywhere closer to that goal. shery: we are hearing from the g20 saying that the u.s. should return to the transpacific partnership. japan really not willing to go the bilateral way as president trump wants. >> i think they are right that it would be positive for the u.s. to return to the transpacific partnership.
that was one of president trump's first actions to withdraw from those talks. japan recently signed a trade deal with the european union. japan is very much into the multilateral approach, unlike the u.s. shery: we also have shinzo abe talking about potential u.s. auto tariffs. >> that would be a big problem. the u.s. is already subject in japan to steal and aluminum grounds of national security threat. it is hard to see how japan is a national security to the u.s. shery: or canada or europe. >> exactly. that would be the same argument in favor of the auto parts tariffs. it is not really hold water. it is not hard to see why abe would be objecting to it. shery: prime minister shinzo abe has had his own domestic
scandals. this is not really helping him. >> yes. he committed to the famous three arrows of getting the economy going, fiscal, monetary, and reform. the monetary seemed like it would be one of the relatively easy parts to achieve, and yet it is not coming together. shery: peter, great to have you with us. thank you, peter coy of business week. politicst on bloomberg in your inbox every day. coming up, what you missed. we will be bringing you complete coverage of out that' -- alp habet's earnings. ♪
street. two people were killed and 12 others wounded. >> this is an attack against innocent families and our entire city. it is a tragedy, another tragedy in our city this year. i promise all of the people of toronto, but most important way those directly affected by this, that we will all be relentless in getting answers about why this senseless attack happened. mark: sunday night, the violence in toronto came three months after a driver plowed into pedestrians on a crowded sidewalk, killing 10 people and injuring 14. the toronto police chief did not rule out terrorism as a motive for last night's violence, although officials did not immediately identify the attacker of the event, saying only that he was 29 years old. benjamin netanyahu is praising president trump for his tough talk on iran. he said today that the president is taking a clear position against the ir