tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg August 28, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: here are the top stories from around the world. u.k. prime minister teresa mays suggests the failure to reach a deal may not be the end of the world. talking trade. as the u.s. announces a new deal with mexico, we get the latest from mexico's economy minister. an exclusive interview. and u.s. stocks are hitting new highs as investors react to the trade deal announced by u.s. and mexico. now it is 19 minutes into the trading day in the united states. so let's get to abigail doolittle. >> we are looking at very, very small gains for the major averages. lead the w jones,
way. right now on pace, each of the major averages for a third day higher. the s&p 500 and nasdac putting in all time highs for another day. oth are after some degree. flipping between very small gains and losses. s&p 500 turned slowly. let's take a look at the three-day chart of the s&p 500 to view that rally. last friday, the s&p 500 finishing up .6 on the comments on jay powell. powell.e of a yes, more of a continuation of that fed policy. and the u.s.-mexico trade deal. and right now, up ever so slightly on the day. it will be interesting to see if the other averages can eke out. help the s&p 500 and check of the nasdac, some of the misconducter names. qualcomm among other --
semiconductor names, qualcomm nd others. slight miss there and the conference for consumer confidence and it showed that the desire to buy a house is waning. we see these are the percentage poem wanting to buy a new house and we see the month of august up steadily declining. there has been some weak data there. it will be seen. something to keep an eye on
weighing both of those numbers weighing on the home building stock. let's look at the home building stock. last week, we had a rally. but today, we have homes down. k.b. home not in a big way. the overall housing home building index on the year, vonnie, more than 8% since 2008. so this is a sector to keep an eye on, especially at stock. they're hitting all time highs. vonnie: thank you for that update. theresa may is going back to her starting principle. no deal is better then a buyout deal. may referenced the world trade organization saying british and e.u. trade will not collapse of a new deal brexit and the u.k. will make a withdraw. let's bring in lucy in london. is this magic sinking? the whole point of the deadline is that you reach a deal by the deadline. >> i think that's a really good
point. she's trying to positive. she's trying to say that the u.k. can be ready for anything and if we don't get the deal that she want, it will still be ok. however, as you say, really, the point of this is to try to reach a deal and this is possibly an element keynote trying to maneuver to say we really don't care. it's all about negotiations. vonnie: if there is no deal what, incentive does europe have to continue trade? >> well, i think there will still be an incentive to continue trade because the u.k. and the e.u. have a huge amount of trade between them. that was why there was an agreement in the first place. trade isn't just going to stop with the u.k. when we no longer have these disagreements in place. we're going to go to the w.t.o. rules or less of a good deal than we wanted. romaine: how much assurance does the market have?
if we don't have a deal in place, what type of trading relationship can we expect the u.k. to have with the rest of the world? >> almost everybody i speak to in the market, almost expects there to be a deal. very few people see the u.k. crashing out. although obviously, everybody is pricing in that risk. if it were be the case, then w.t.o. rules which aren't fantastic for u.k. to be perfectly honest. so i think everyone is going to avoid at all costs. romaine: when you talk about there will be a deal, you mean that parliament is also going to go along with whatever may manages to work out? >> i think so. i think they don't want brexit to happen. they still want it to happen in the most favorable way it can if it is going to happen and no
deal isn't the best option for anybody at this point. vonnie: if the u.k. and the e.u. reverses to w.t.o. rules what, will happen between the people and the migrants scenario. i mean, there are other things to worry about. it's not just trade from europe's perspective. >> yeah, that's actually a fantastic point and that will need to be decided because that's not going to be covered by the trading agreement. there's still going to be a lot to talk about. it's not like march 29, everyone's going to say we're not talking anymore. vonnie: exactly. let's talk about marconi. he may not stay one more year to get over britain's hump not that that will be accomplished in a year but the treasury is denying it, apparently. >> they are. they're saying they don't recognize the reporting. that's their exact phrase. it's an interesting question because a lot of people have said this might be really good
olution for the u.k. he was supposed to leave this june he extended by a year to give continuity through the brexit talks which takes it to next june. but if we have no deal or if the deal isn't great, that will leave him only three months after that cut-off point when he is governor. so it's really interesting -- an interesting idea. however, corny doesn't want to say more in the u.k. more than five years. he's in six years. is there any point in him having said that the first place? >> he said believe that is the risk of a no deal scenario is uncomfortably high after the last meeting. i mean, does this mean he would even want to do it?
>> it's an interesting point. i suspect he might enjoy the challenge in a way. it's an interesting time to be governor and he's taken a lot of criticism for his policy. so he might want to see it through to be able to close that door. however, he does have a family. he has always wanted to go back to canada as early as possible and he may have other things that are interesting to him at his point. >> u.s. treasury secretary steve mnuchin wants to make a trade deal with canada but if not, he expects congress to approve the agreement he just reached with mexico. president trump spoken to trudeau for productive conversations on trade. president trump is accused of google of rigging the -- he say
only negative stories come up in a google search. he calls it a very serious situation that be addressed. google denies that the results are biased. north korea is warning the u.s. that denuclear sedation talks are at stake again and may fall apart. crorg to cnn, that warning came to michael pompeii hours after he was scheduled to leave for om yang. the "wall street journal" says manafort's lawyers held talks with prosecutors but couldn't settle the charges. manafort was convicted of bank fraud last week. this is bloomberg. vonnie? vonnie: thank you. coming up on balance of power, wilbert ross joins bloomberg tv
romaine: this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." vonnie: a look at some of the business business stories right now. best buy held the most after its third quarter forecast missed the lowest analyst estimate. the outlook overshadowed a solid econd quarter revenue. shares of tiffany are rising that raises full year forecast. the company is experiencing a renaissance after a lengthy period of same store sales
contraction that ended last holiday season. at the other end of the spectrum, sears is soaring today. they expanded its higher purr mass and installation program. it is now available nationwide. customers who buy tires at amazon can get them installed and balanced at sears auto centers. romaine: the c.e.o. says the french economic slowdown isn't harm the performance just yet but trade tension may become a tension. he spoke to us today. >> we have to be careful because in july and august, i have not -- on july, -- "in focus" but what i see up to now is totally in line with the first six months of the year which means volume which are higher than last year. the of course, we have also
cost of -- for the trucks is going up which is not good news. and we have some up and down on prices. is there good and bad news. but up to now in terms of what i can see is still for us continue to grow the same path in the last six months. >> are you concerned that some geopolitical tensions like trade tensions could actually peel over and impact industrial production? >> yes, of course. we have to be concerned. we don't know if it's short term, medium, long term. i don't think it's good for business to have such tensions. do not believe that's to try
to tax import from one country and retaliation from the other country. and i do not believe it's good. my major concern would be that cing unserns this -- sun uncertainties which is for me, the potential major, major risk. if you have a factory in each country, the locations will be much more difficult. and i do not believe we can saturate all the plans worldwide. therefore, yes. we have some concerns. optimistic be saying at the end of the day, politicians, people in charge of e country --
patrick, who would be impacted by this? >> the clients of those funds. the people who have their money invested. gam is not an especially well-known money manager worldwide it's a swiss moneying me that found itself in a media storm. and what they've done today is basically say ok, we're going to start paying out some money from those funds which have been liquidated and different people will get their money back at different times. some are less liquid and people are going to get their money back less quickly. other funds are luxemburg and in ireland, people are going to get their cash back a little bit more quickly. so, you know, the clients will be affected but there's also going to be some vultures
looking out for opportunities thinking what is exactly in those funds and how quickly is gam going to have to sell it? vonnie: clarify -- accumulative misconduct. is that what led to all these redemptions by one man? >> i think it's one of the key questions that people feel gam hasn't properly answered yet. they'll say as you point out, a claim tiff misconduct. they will say he had some recordkeeping issues. maybe he broke some expenses policies, gift policies. i mean, come on. is that a reason for deleting an entire strategy? what has he done wrong that's so bad which would require them to
suspend the guy and lose the fund? romaine: well, patrick that seems to be what's so confusing. gam may not be so well phone but we're familiar with these unconstrained hedge funds and these black box that a lot of them operate in. is there a broader issue here that really goes beyond gam and into the structure of those types of funds? >> i mean, it could be people will point back to similar situations which happened three or four years ago. perhaps which happened during the financial crisis. obviously, the luxemburg registered firms have tighter restrictions. i believe they have these liquidity requirements and people are allowed to redeem almost every day versus in the caymans t pay and it takes a longer time to get your money back. you have asset which is were in the cayman islands, you're going to have as a company the owns the funds, a longer time to sell
those assets. so, you know, they'll say it's just for institutional investors and these people know the risks. at the end of the day, though, those institutional investors are pension funds which have got mine and your money in it. romaine: thank you, patrick. that's bloomberg's patrick winters live from zurich. turning to italy right now. italians a sets remain under pressure. the 10-year bond yield there nearing highs in may and italian stocks more than 5% year-to-date. is italy still somewhere you need to be invested? david harold weighs in. >> the political situation in italy is not -- and by the way, has never really been very stable. you know, it has something like 66 governmentings since post-world war two. so this is a place that tends to be unstable.
and it still functions despite the political instability. and if you look at what the impact has been on share prices on this instability to come up with a unified government, you've seen an extremely severe downward impact on especially the banking sector and the stock that we own is probably down in u.s. dollars in terms of 30%. off its highs in february and in january, despite this, despite the low share price, the business continues to do quite well. you see lone losses continue to trickle down and at very reasonable levels. the stock has been off loading their balance sheets and their capital position is quite good. it's this macroeconomic uncertainty and not the fundamentals that in this particular case of sbessa is hurting the price.
-- intesa is hurting the price. we believe the market is giving us a buying opportunity. you have to look through the cycle. you can't just be looking day-to-day, week to week. but we look quarter to quarter, year to year. and making these judgments. >> lest take a look at three years. because at some point, do the business fundamentals come together with the politics in this sense? we've got a real tension over the budget and how much money the italian government can tend end? they have to make substantial cuts. they have to go through austerity. can that affect your business portfolio? >> you do have to analyze and look at these things. and you're right in the case of italy, they have a relatively
healthy portion of sovereign debt. i mean, debt to g.d.p. is 120 to 130%. now at last couple of things that do counterbalance this. one is the public sector also owns a lot of assets. and unlike greece, they could probably go through some asset sales to help work on that debt. number two, and more importantly, italy is wealthy. the private sector debt, private sector debt and g.d.p. is extremely low in italy. you don't see this consumer leverage and business leverage. it is a very wealthy country when you look at private sector debt-to-g.d.p. so really, they do have to control spending. but more importantly, they need o start growing their economy. the north grows and the south does not. they have to come up with
solutions to energize this economy. romaine: and that was david herro of herro associates speaking us to on bloomberg. vonnie: where markets are trading. we're just about five hinz to the european close and the stoxx 600 europe is a 10th 1%. and the s&p 500 is up as well. pulte, up higher. the peso is creeping back up towards 19. it is giving back some of those gains. 1887. wore going to speak with the economy minister later this hour to talk about that trade deal and lots, lots more. this is bloomberg. ♪
in the fed board. this is something that has to be done before he finally has to take a seat. romaine: it will nice to get moved on with what this new fed's going to look like. vonnie: exactly. there's more to go. and another vote and the next meeting is september 26. i'm not sure if he will have his eat by then. romaine: we'll see. vonnie: ok. let's see how european markets have fared in this session. they've just closed. >> here we are, edging higher for a third day of gains. the stock is up. the standout performance is a very heavy day. gold at a one month high. and the ftse, a very mining heavy index. it's one of the best performers,
closing more than .6%. it is paying catch-up for all the market optimism because london closed for a public holiday. and in southern europe, we're not seeing the same gains on the agenda. you've got the budget in italy coming up and the bridge situation. down by .7%. let's see what's moving by the most. your biggest gainer up by more than 8%. this is the best day for the stock in more than a month. it is london listed minor no. surprise that it should be the best gainer. a good showing from uni brew up by 4.8% after it reported earnings that beat earnings upgrading its guidance. and not so good for the danish bank, dropping more than 11%. this is the biggest loser slumping by the most in two
years. and a quick fix through your currency. euro gaining today. a lot of resilience. we have poor italian data leading many to talk about europe. bullishness ahead. and a no deal brexit wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. here we are back in negative territory against the dollar. and this is the e.u. against the euro here. down by 6%. it is the worst against the both dollar and euro. we had weak retail data on july and sweden. worse than people saw it. and a lot of jitterness in this currency. we have got election coming up. so plenty to price into the the close. that's look at the european
markets. vonnie: in the u.s., we have stocks creeping higher but everything seems to be maximum point including the dollar index. down 2%. the turn around for the backs. -- books. substantially weaker after the "wall street journal" reported that the germany was considered giving it a bailout. gold futures in this -- well, it seems to better better. let's move to g.m.m. tuckerish stocks rupp.8% in this session. this probably after that same report. interesting to see how they are reacting. and if we look at other currencies that are moving. the south korea is having a good day, the won. the nafta renegotiation might bode well for some negotiation with china. the mexican peso at 1890.
it's losing a little crowd. we will ask the economy minister in just a my minutes. romaine: italy's government has large domestic spending plans. this sets up room for a confrontation with brussels which is wary of exceeding the e.u. limits. i saw an interview earlier with a deputy premier saying they're willing to break these deficit limits if that's what it takes. what do you make of those comments? >> well, it's a complicated situation because he said that they're willing, eventually perhaps maybe. whereas shortly thereafter, the finance minister who is on a mission to china looking outside the e.u. he said no, no, no. we may go a little bit above but we won't go above 3%. we will just breach some of the promises that were made by other governments which is very different than breaking the 3%
limit. we'll see what happens. but the finance minister has a better handle of accounts. so possibly, they won't breach the 3% limit. romaine: what is the economic situation there? does italy really need to abide by these e.u. rules to grow or can they sort of just swing it on their own? >> well, i think it depends, of course, a political decision. so it depends on what you think is better, is most important, is most worthwhile. right now, you have this populist government which is willing to bend them, break them to make people happy. will have been years of recession and down turns. unemployment is very high. and there is a feeling that more spending that helping people out and keeping some of these promises that the populist government made that got into government will help. so we'll have to see how they play this. but it's going to be a very tense game with the market that
are on edge. and that's why we're seeing the edge with the german government. that will drawut some sharp words from the european union but it's questionable as to whether the european union would do anything, rights? >> well, it really, the goldman-sachs scenario which is the maximum were true, italy would be a tragedy. they would go bankrupt. i think, you know, that's just to give us an idea of how much they plan to spend. i don't think they will be spending that in a short time. they're going to try and see how much they can bend the rules and still stay within the european union. and so that will be looking at in september and october when they have to present the budget. vonnie: it's not like marketses are pricing in any kind of
backlash. not yet anyway. -- talian 10-year lead is will have to go higher before it would seem to be a scary scenario. >> well, in 2011, we saw it go much, much higher. it was over 400. right now, it's around 2ing me. so if they break the 3%, we will see a much more of a nightmare scenario. but right now, markets are figuring because italy has leeway, there's no reason for them to go that far. and yes, you were right at what you were playing so far. european was lenient if countries don't go out of country. most normal governments will stay in the limit but they have had a lot of surprise for us in only three months.
romaine: all right, thank you. vonnie: u.s. stocks, knocks another record but treasury yields have been good. cameron is talking to us. to an extent t not surprising. the stocks are going higher if we have a trade deal and our trade relations are nice and calm. >> treasury fields are a function primarily of monetary policy of the fed. that's not earth shattering revelation. but it's a function of not only of where federates are now but expectations into the future and what's interesting is that over the last few months that -- basically the market have started to disbelieve that the fed is going to do what they claim they are going to do. so we look at the dot plot that everyone focuses on that comes
out every quarter. y the end of 2019, the median, which is what people tend to focus on. for the fed, is that rates will be a three to three and a quarter percent range. what markets are pricing the most likely outcome is rate fass two and a half to two and three quarter range. it is 50 basis points below what the fed itself say it is the likely outcome. there are only three dots in that plot that are below what the market is currently pricing that's most likely outcome. and the market is pricing a one in 12 probability that the fed does what they say they're going to do in the plot. so it's quite remarkable that and maybe it's a function of the fact that inflation hasn't taken off and the fed has made it clear. yes, we have this symmetric inflation target.
and i think people have also taken to some extent the jackson hole speech from j. powell as defish, alan greenspan had this view of the new economy and we don't need to high grade as much as traditional models would sexug the model has taken that as -- where goldman-sachs came out and said that's the wrong expectation. what he's saying is not the specific episode of the late 1990's but more a function of hey, ordinary docksed models don't -- they're very, very uncertain and they're not reliable in real time. so this idea that wages that can remain low or that inflation is going to remain low or indeed that the feed should fixate only on inflation and unemployment
may be miscalaised and -- misplaced and the fed does what they claim they're going to do then the market is priced. vonnie: we're a month away from the next and i'm sure they're going to be some type of speaker . and wondering what's going on. >> yeah, what's interesting is if you look over the last few years, fed pricing, if we gauge what the market price for the fed one year forward, it tends to be pretty steady and then it ratchets up. and the market's expectation for one year forward fed pricing is increased between the beginning of except the end of the year. that precedent would suggest that there's room for a hawkish surprise if the dot plot doesn't suggest any capitulation and indeed there's some reinforcement. we're going to get these new dots in september. and the understanding is the three new governors will be on
the board for the september meeting. and if we still see the feds sort of reiterating that we're on course to do what we say we're going to do, then the market will have to -- romaine: then why are we seeing more preparation? then when you look at equity, we're at 2,900 on s&p and people talk about 3,000. that would seem to suggest an upswing in the economy which would raise rates, right if but why is there such a disconnect between what's going on there? >> there's a couple of explanations. one is positioning where if you believe the futures positioning, the market has this not quite a record because that was a week or so. but in enormous short position. people have already gotten the trade op and it habit worked. that refers to bonds rather than the shorts end of the curb and the son concrete fed expectations on the one hand. and i guess the other aspect is
the public debate about the yield curb and some of the presidents have expressed reservations about continue the high grade. and we're not that far away in 2010. so that perhaps doesn't help as well. vonnie: our thanks to bloomberg's cameron crise. let's go to courtney. >> consumer confidence rose to an 18-year high in august. a greater share of those surveyed expect to buy big ticket items including houses, cars and major appliances within six months. and more americans were optimistic about pay gains. housing demands in the u.s. appears to be cooling in the face of higher mortgage rates. home prices rose in june. according to s&p survey data, prices increased 1%. mortgage rates are near a seven-year high.
the u.s. is defending its reimposition sanctions against iran as justified. a state department legal adviser urged judges that the court of justice to reject iran's request to suspend the sanctions. teheran says the move violates a 1965 treaty. and germany is examining options to help turkey avoid meltdown. but financial aid is not one of them. the issue will be discussed when they meet next month. turkey already has dismissed any talk of the bailout. global news 24 hours a day on air and on twitter powered more more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 127 cousins -- countries. vonnie: we're talking praise. we're talking with the mexican economy minister. that's coming right you have.
>> welcome back. the u.s. and mexico pursuing a new trade deal but now the pressure is on canada to join the deal soon or risk being left out. we are joined by mexico's economy secretary and chief nafta negotiator. it's good to see you again, minister. thank you for enjoying us today. >> good morning. >> you are in canada not yet. would you be willing to sign a bilateral agreement with the united states if canada does not join? >> let me be very clear. my president had a very nice conversation with prime minister trudeau on sunday and he has been clear that mexico clearly
wants nafta to be trilateral. and that has will be the process in which we have been engaged for the last year. it is opened to dialogues. and remember, most of the issues originally had to do with mexico. and now, obviously there are some issues that have to do in the relationships of u.s. and danny. so -- canada. and we're very glad. >> if trudeau says no, will you sign anyway? >> no, if that is the case soon, mexico will make other decisions. >> what are the issues that canada has to agree to? >> well, basically -- well,
canada has to analyze the landing zones that we would propose in some of the issues to that trilateral. they are supply management in dairy and poultry according to the latest proposal. areas like specifically troops do with -- has to be reviewed. and we have a proposal that we are looking at. so there are lot of things including chapter 19 that has been a very important -- >> yeah. >> since it is a contribution of canada. >> i want to ask you about chapter 19. what did you agree to on dispute resolution and what did you agree in terms of the government procurement provisions? >> well, let me tell you one thing, which is very important.
canada is a part of disciplines and a part of what do you do when there is a dispute in terms of a protection against the safeguards. what we did is mexico clearly set up a position in terms of disciplines. that is extremely important in trying to define our behavior in trade remedies. and that is a very good landing zone. .hat is not -- specifically now the other element is to have a very clear role like you have in nafta today of how you protect yourself in the north american region when any of the countries take a safeguard. and that has been established in the way we did nafta. you can have compensation and you have the right to start -- to solve that problem. now, the dispute is the mechanism to have an establish at 1.0.
and what we have said is we have to get what we need in terms of the conclusion we will engage in discussions starting today in how to land chapter 19. >> secretary, can i ask you about the auto industry if part of this is that the proportion of workers according on assertions proportion of the car would have to be paid at least $16 an hour. how much would that impact your auto plans? how fast would you have to get those wages up and can you do it? >> well, we have to look at the new rules in an internal way. let me tell you one thing. first of all, it is going to be free trade in the outer market in north america. if you make a new rule, you can export at no rate or limited to the north american market. obviously of course the new rules are more stricter than the original rules. you have to have original
content of 75. but remember. the u.s. position originally, they wanted half of the cars made the u.s. now the new proposition is that 40% of the content of a car is made in a high waste zone. about $16 an hour. obviously, that refers to canada and the u.s. but 60% is made in anywhere. which means for the case of mexico, 70% of the car experts today -- exports today can meet that new rule with some effort from here to the first of january, of 2020. the 3% remaining what we have done is give certainty for that 30% that in the time that they are adjusting, they will basically never pay more than 2.5%. so that is obviously something that we immediately have the following effect.
product the production capacities. consider the expansion that is already happening in mexico and create obviously space for growth ahead of us. i can tell you that the majority of the experts of today, we keep the new rules and we keep experts and growing in the mexican economy. vonnie: what did president trump mean, secretary, when he mean that they will massively increase consumption of u.s. grains? >> well, let me explain. generally, the u.s. is engaging very important discussions with big buyers around the world. when economies work differently, in the case of china, they make decisions is the -- because of the character of the industry in some areas. in the case of mexico, is market players. what president trump is referring is that today, mexico is the biggest buyer in u.s.
frouk to esnuclear weapons yellow corn, in pork, poultry, sorghum. you name it and we are extremely important buyers of u.s. production. what that implies is growth from mexico and we keep buying much more than what we already buy from u.s. in the future. that is just a reality. the agriculture is a sector between mexico and the u.s. has been growing tremendously. >> how exactly will this issue of non-conforming autos be dealt with? >> basically, it is very simple. non-conforming autos, it will be trance set story and they will adjust in time. while they adjust, they have a guarantee access so the market.
and m.s.m. of 2.5% in terms of competitive terms, do not represent a big hurdle. vonnie: yeah. >> but they will have just adjust in the new rule in a way that we will have free market access. >> a couple of quick questions. what did secretary mnuchin mean when he said this is a strong currency production chapter and what will happen to the 232 steel and aluminum tariffs? >> on that one, basically, these new agreements and remember, this is not the first time in an agreement we have discussed this. we did it when we were discussing t.p.p. the idea is not necessarily something that happens in north america. some countries in the past used ar to be officially more competitive. so these understandings that we are doing is that we send a signal to all the regions in the world that the north america
will not tolerate it. and the commitment here is basically on the way you do these but not putting at risk your autonomy in monetary policy at all. and your second question has to do with an action of what is taken outside of this negotiation. on the steel and aluminum, that evenly is part of a process that we have to discuss with the u.s. vonnie: all right. our thanks to mexico's economy secretary guajardo. and of course, our thanks to bloomberg's michael mckee. coming up, we're staying in washington with wilbur ross. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪
u.s.-mexico trade deal. we talk with wilbur ross about what canada needs to do. and advice and advise and consent, we talk about two senators from a democrat corn of maryland, and republican johnson from wisconsin. brewer aboutjan what should happen. age was 24 hours ago that we heard president trump announced the new mexico trade deal. welcome wilbur ross to bloomberg television and radio from washington. >> thank you for having me on. david: let's start with canada here and heard we have