tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg September 7, 2018 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
balance of power. shery: wage growth in august is the most since 2009, enough to keep republicans in power come november? the final day of the brett kavanaugh confirmation hearing, what did the supreme court nominee say about his views on government regulations and the business sector? europe's populist wave connected sweden -- could next hit sweden. critical elections this weekend. ♪ shery: hot august for the u.s. economy, adding 201,000 jobs, topping estimates. unemployment held at 3.9% always growth accelerated to 2.9%. larry kudlow had this to say.
>> we are in an economic boom, the story of 2018, so many people thought it would be impossible but we are picking up speed now on things like ism and business investment and wages appeared. when you get these conditions of boom, more people will come to work, they will be rewarded by higher wages. shery: let's welcome our economic chief u.s. economist carl riccadonna. are we near the peak or as he said, picking up steam? carl: gdp numbers say the economy is building momentum but something interesting is happening because while the initial payroll game that beat expectations, 50,000 downward revisions. this took a lot of that summer hiring heatwave out of the data. if we look at the 3, 6, 12 month
rate of change, all below 200,000 now and all showing some signs of decelerating. while the economy is on a solid footing, the great labor numbers we have seen over the last couple of months are not quite as great in light of the revisions and maybe we should not be surprised because the rules of supply and demand are in effect as workers are becoming more expensive, employers are moderating the pace of hiring. i cannot say that trend is happening for certain, one month does not establish a trend but with average hourly earnings at the top of the range for the cycle, we are finally starting see see some traction between reduced labor slack and more weight pressure. david: it is one month but one thing larry kudlow says, does not seem to be right, more people coming to work because wages are going up but labor
participation went down. made that indicate we are maxing out on how many people we can bring on board? carl: i have long held the view that the real test of labor force participation will be more enticing work environment. when we see some upward trajectory in hourly average earnings, that should drag more folks into the labor market. you see the tightening and the but theloyment rate, labor force participation did not move in the right direction this month but month-to-month it since to bounce around. if we see a meaningful pick up in average hourly earnings over the next several months, i some rise inll see participation. david: interesting to see what the market did, dollars going up some. right now, in the middling territory. were you surprised there was such a modest response in the market? carl: i was a little concerned
when i saw the average hourly earnings number -- and when it was upset stocks earlier this year, specially the groundhog day, the jobs -- january jobs report, we did not get this this time around and have been so conditioned to waiting month in and month out for evidence of more weight pressure, this was like gadot finally arriving at the party. [laughter] carl: we did not see repricing of expectations for the fed increase. that edged higher and largely explained the markets. 68% from% from 64 -- 64% or so. signals in terms of, the phillips curve, does the -- does it give them vindication? carl: it provides vindication that the phillips curve is flatter than it has historically
been but it does appear to be still functional. just a different setting than economic cycles past. now we see evidence that the neutral level of the unemployment rate is closer to about 4%. you know when you finally see the weights pressure and i know the fed still has about 4.5% in their official projections but i suspect, when we have the september fomc meeting and the next round of forecast updates, it will move down to 4%. we are finally starting to see evidence that the economy is operating slightly beyond full employment. shery: what about productivity? -- awe see a d6 operation deceleration? carl: as we see more weight waysure, employers find a to go with fewer workers or higher -- lower hiring.
without a pickup in hiring, you see a rebound in productivity. people say why is productivity so sluggish. we see the answer. because workers have been cheap and as wage pressures emerge, you will see the nascent rebound and productivity gain momentum. david: thank you to carl riccadonna. time for a check on the markets. we turn to taylor riggs. taylor: quite a rebound in the equity markets. traders digest the news. s&p 500 at one point was on pace for its worst week since june and we see losses flow. .4%, coming off a little bit but still in the green. still positive earnings from the tech sector. consumables, those are moving.
jeffries underperformed with a $55 price target. shrinking says taste on a shrinking u.s. beer market. ,ampbell soup is up 4/10 of 1% nominated 12 new directors to the board, trying to oust the current board with shares 20% lower than they were 20 years ago. the story today is jobs. we are talking all about the two-year yield, up to a ten-year high. 270 on the two-year yield. most economists say after the positive job reports, the fed needs to hike faster. something we will get more information on. rates, looking at some of the etf's like public storage and a property trust which are having a tough day.
august the second straight monthly drop. some of the landlords are trying to maximize revenue. it it hashe dollar, been a strong dollar story. that is when the jobs numbers was released and now up .2%. since april, a strong dollar story and i imagine that is likely to continue. shery: thank you taylor riggs. coming up, the last day of hearings and judge brett kavanaugh is cruising through on the likely path to confirmation. we learn -- did we learn about his judicial opinions? we will talk to ilya shapiro next. this is bloomberg. ♪
shery: president trump announcing that there could be another $267 billion of tariffs on chinese imports ready to go. $200would be an additional billion worth of tariffs. yesterday, -- those could come at any time. the president saying another $267 billion of chinese tariffs are ready to go. they could be ready on very short notice. that would be an additional to the $200 billion tariffs we have seen. we have not seen an announcement of the tariffs yet. if you look at this chart, you is see that president trump set to be backing those $200 billion of chinese tariffs. a $50 billiony
tariffs on chinese imports and there could be another $267 billion, and this could mean that the total volume of chinese imports from last year. david: he may be saying that he wants to go forward, absent negotiation with the chinese. he reported what the headlines said, not sure i understand it . yet.are not in effect on the two under $6,730, ready the $267 billion, he has another common time, i do not understand. in shery: an indication of where the $200 billion is going because we have not seen any tariffs yet. david: he seems to not be backing off. the s&p 500 does not seem to like it.
we go to mark crumpton with the first word news. >> following that story, president trump willing to meet with china as they continue to square off over trade. the national economic council director larry kudlow told us that beijing needs to show it is open to go optimize. larry kudlow: possibilities, the g20, i do not want to get ahead of the curve, those things are possible. in terms of our side, i have never known president trump not to want to talk. >> larry kudlow declined to say the administration will clarify today whether it will follow through with a plan to impose the tariffs on $200 billion in chinese goods as we were talking about a moment ago, the day after public feedback and did. the fourth day of senate hearings for brett kavanaugh is underway.
more than two dozen witnesses on schedule on both sides of the nomination fight. democratic witnesses include john dean, the president next and white house counsel who corporate with prosecutors during watergate. republican side, theodore olson will testify in support of judge kavanaugh. defense secretary james mattis made a surprise stop in afghanistan today, the u.s. trying to help the country reach a cease-fire and eventual peace deal with the taliban. his visit comes days after a new u.s. commander took over as head of allied forces in america's longest war. millions of people under the affordable care law covered will only see modest premium hikes next year and some will get price cuts according to the associated press which found that obamacare's health insurance marketplaces seem to be stabilizing after two years of sharp premium hikes. the exiting of insurers seems to
have abated. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: to recap the breaking news, president trump is saying that if there is another to encz cd $7 billion -- $267 billion of chinese tariffs, i think he means chinese goods, ready to ,o, added to the $200 billion he has not levied the tariffs on but is eligible to do and he said it could begun on short notice but under the law, there is a common time. president trump -- president trump appears to be sent to china, i am willing to impose tariffs on all of the imports the united states has from china. let's go back to the confirmation hearings in washington. hearingsanaugh's
expected to conclude today and the committee vote scheduled for next week. a vote by the full senate before the first monday in october when the court term begins. we bring in a senior fellow and constitute -- we bring in ilya shapiro from the cato institute. have you seen anything that you think would derail the confirmation of judge kavanaugh to be a supreme court justice? >> i do not think so. after all the fury, a replay with neil gorsuch, all of the republicans will vote for him and he will get probably 3-5 democrats. david: why will he pick up the democrats? >> we are going to the midterms and several democrats up for reelection in heavily trump states and it will play poorly with the voters if they do not. try tojudge kavanaugh make clear that he wanted to be a judge to judge the law and not for the be partial
defense or prosecution or republicans or democrats. does the nature of these hearings undermined the claim? is the supreme court being more politicized because how politics have entered into this process? >> those are separate questions, no doubt the supreme court has become more politicized, not necessarily through the actions of the justices but based on the polarization of the nation and the ideological sorting of the parties, and the emergence of legal very's that judges -- legal theories that judges from different parties, how they are. that is a politically -- political moment and with donald trump under investigation and people still sour about the results of the 2016 election, just like with neil gorsuch, probably more so given the indictments and please, capital, not because what he has done but because of the political moment,
it is more politicized. shery: how much of the hearing was about president trump versus the candidate himself? >> they are like proxy battles, a lot of the hearing was about document production, not about the nominee but the process in the senate, the bush library, the justice department, etc. most of the democrats who are complaining about the documents had already said they would vote no. this is political gamesmanship. some of the discussion was about what judge kavanaugh did or did not do or what he sent in the bush white house. little discussion about his 307 opinions. odd hearing and that way. shery: how justified are the most it will be the conservative court since 1930? >> i do not know about 1930 but it will be more conservative and that he is more conservative than anthony kennedy who he is replacing.
but it is not that he is the swing vote, john roberts becomes the median of -- on the court. we have not had a chief justice the in the middle ideologically in a long time. john roberts is k.g. and the as theill only move -- chief justice wants. david: the use of the bill of rights to protect corporations from what legislators have done, state or federal. is that likely something to change with justice kavanaugh? >> i do not think so. whether citizens united with the first amendment speech rights or other rights, all rights apply to corporations because they do not make sense. kennedy was with the conservatives in this area and replacing him would not be a change. david: thank you to ilya shapiro from the cato institute from washington. more breaking news, president
trump talking on air force one right now. suggesting they want more tariffs on china going beyond the $200 billion that have been imposed. now he is going after the new york times and says he wants jeff sessions to investigate the new york times to pursue possible legal action after the anonymous op-ed piece. president trump now saying that jeff sessions should investigate the new york times. and bring legal action to the anonymous editorial. shery: saying it is national security. president trump talked about another two under $67 billion of chinese tariffs ready to go on top of the $200 billion they are reconsidering but have not imposed get. the public comment time has ended 20 $200 billion and they could be imposed at any time. let's break this down. anothers this mean,
$267 billion of chinese tariffs ready to go. this will take time. we are not even finished with the $200 million? >> absolutely. a big macro point to make, it would take essentially the amount of imports covered to the totality of u.s. imports from china. we talked about hitting all of the trade with china. this would be a huge escalation of things. we are in the final stages. we hear that at the white house, they are working through the final stages of nailing down the specifics of what they want to do with the $200 billion we have been waiting for. we know the president is eager to go ahead with those as soon as possible. he has dropped this bombshell on air force one, saying there is another $267 billion to go
further. that will not help. billion -- in0 tariffs worth of goods. go back to the $200 billion worth of goods, what is taking them so long? they have had a long time. >> absolutely. one of the reasons they're going through this deliver late is because -- deliberately is because there is concern that these tariffs could be the subject of a legal challenge from possibly the private sector, companies impacted by these. they want to make sure they dot the i's and going through a public comment period and considering them. at the very least that they appear to be doing this not rationally but as part of a deliberate process. shery: the president says the
tariffs on $200 billion of goods could be soon, depending on what happens. so far, consumers in the u.s. had been shielded from these rising prices because of the list of the chinese imports. the items the imports included. what does the $200 billion include right now and how challenging will it be to minimize the harm to u.s. consumers? >> incredibly challenging. no doubt that if the administration goes ahead with the $200 billion, we will see much more of an impact on consumers. talking and that list, some 6000 products, things like bicycles, mating come from china -- many come from china, bicycle parts. over six days of hearings last month, amazing to see the small and medium and larger businesses come through and say this will have a severe impact on the
business and force them to either lay off people or raise prices, or shut down. if you take it to the next level, that is what the president seems to be talking about, you will hit things they have avoided so far, smartphones which account for a huge portion of the trade with china. laptops, televisions. all places the administration did not want to go initially. they were trying hard to keep this away from hitting consumers. if you will go for the whole hog, you have to hit consumers. david: hi to talk about trade policies without talking politics -- hard to talk about trade policies without talking politics. at what point does the president have to consider his base made up or if they have to pay more money for bicycles and cell phones? >> one of the features is the
delayed impact. we saw this in the jobs numbers this morning, credibly strong jobs numbers and larry kudlow telling us and others that there is a boom going on in the u.s. economy. that is masking any impact that we see. any economic impact. and probably masking political impact. there is a good chance that the real impact, impact on prices and jobs, the impact on businesses around the world and in the u.s., the impact on farmers, it does not start to hit until the fourth quarter of this year, first quarter of next year. there is a delay. the politics of this now look ok for donald trump. it is whether -- how long he can maintain that? shery: we heard from the white house economic adviser larry kudlow that the president is willing to meet with xi jinping. could we the -- see that
structure of talks? >> yes. what larry kudlow reflected this morning was diverse views in the administration. we saw them play out in the last few hours with what the president is saying. the president is with the china hawks. he wants to continue raising the pressure on china. larry kudlow is part of a wing that wants a negotiated solution. it is not clear we will get that soon. david: thank you. from presidente trump on more tariffs to come on china. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's take a look at the markets
games. tech and consumer discretionary were leading the gains but as you can see the nasdaq is down 2/10 of 1%. not surprising considering the chineset said more tariffs are ready to go. we have already heard from tech companies with cisco and hewlett-packard warning that if they saw $200 billion worth of soon, that could raise their prices. including internet costs. not surprising that the nasdaq is taking a hit. more, -- ee we asked the question, which is more important the jobs
number or the terror question? this announcement on air force , you see what the market does. the answer is right now the markets care about trade. quite such an important contacts. the president said $200 billion of tariffs could be soon. we also got to hear from the president on a variety of issues including the possibility of legal issue -- action against the new york times because of the anonymous op-ed. >> one more thing on his agenda is jeff sessions. he is going to tell jeff sessions he needs to bring a legal action against the new york times because he believes it is a national of national security. >> the president again said that
a q&a with the mueller team could happen under the right circumstance. >> they are having some serious negotiations. said it doesn't seem so far-fetched. >> wondering whether obstruction of justice will be included. another issue to president is talking about, north korea saying that they have sent a letter to the president. he has not yet received the letter. that is another issue we are barely seeing progress on. president said good things about the north korean president yesterday. we now have first word news with mark crumpton. >> citing national security concerns, president trump says the justice department should investigate the identity of the anonymous new york times op-ed writer. this week's explosive piece which was published on wednesday
claims there is a resistance working within the trump administration to thwart the president's most dangerous impulses. during a rally in montana, the president said unelected the state office are a threat to democracy itself. he is really sad for the mainstream media. will findadopoulos out today whether he will be going to prison for lying to the fbi. sentenced in washington where mueller's team is pressing for a sentence of up to six months. he was the first to plead guilty in the mueller investigation. iran's president says it is time for the u.s. to leave syria. 2200 american troops are in that country. almost all of them are fighting isis forces in the eastern part
of syria. inspoke today at a summit tehran. hasabwe's former leader reconciled with the man who replaced him. he had refused to recognize the rule of the new president. he now says he has accepted his leadership. alleged's opposition that they victory was fraudulent. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter. powered by more than 2700 analysts and journalists in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. trade is a key issue in the news today and also a key issue in midterms. people are putting a lot of money into making sure their voices are heard on the subject. $1 billion. that is expected to be pumped into congressional races this year.
a new suspectdd to the list. that is jeff bezos. we now report on what he is up to and why. it is a new pact called with honor that is a cross partisan impact. it supports democratic and republican candidates for the house. in order to qualify for this help, they have to pledge to work across the aisle to try to cooperate and come up with to bringn solutions people into congress who are not locked into partisanship. it goes against the grain of what is going on in other areas. it is interesting to see jeff
bezos coming in as a new political donor. >> there are a lot of veterans running on both sides. bezos has a lot of money. where is the rest of the money coming from? >> some of the usual suspects, very wealthy donors and corporations and unions. money contributed to super pac's and other outside groups. they are able to take unlimited contributions and to have unlimited spending and targeted races. this money is concentrated heavily in the races that will decide the control of congress. there are a lot of questions about the races, whether they will be a blue wave of democratic victory which conflict control of congress. that has huge implications for congress and for president
trump. , we don't know how the elections will turn out but we see tremendous amounts of money much more than we have seen before. higher fundraising in terms of congressional candidates and these outside groups. interests the level of that people are looking to the midterms as a pivot point and where the country is going to go. not just the money from people who have given before, but money from new people like jeff bezos. that is very significant. >> thank you, can. let's talk more about the midterms. we were talking about campaigning and fundraising but aside from all of that, there is so much happening right now
including the anonymous op-ed it came out and the president commenting on that and saying that he is looking at the possibility of legal action against the newspaper. is this a good idea or should he let it go and move past it? >> a message that plays well with president trump's base is that the press is the enemy of the people. you would hearng him continue to talk about on the campaign trail. if you look at what the administration has done, they have gone after leakers. they have gone after people who were holdovers from the obama administration. ofn you become an employee the white house, especially a senior official, you do sign certain nondisclosure agreements. not just with the campaign, but as a senior official. it is possible that this person might have broken a personnel agreement and that can be serious business.
they might have broken national security ethics standards. this is not the first time we have had leaks at the white house. had this with ronald reagan. does president trump leave himself open to these comments because of his own performance? between sequence out? does he leave himself open to this criticism? >> there is no doubt he is bombastic people. the american public new they were not electing a choir boy. they liked the fact that he was going into the swamp and talking tough and being willing to blow up the boxes. what we are seeing now, what actually happens when you do take on the swamp, then you have this won't go against you. call -- i haveey
to interrupt you. it is been a while since we had a president this early in a term with so many people indicted and convicted. >> that is true. if you look at what the liberals have done over time, they have actually used psychological attacks as political attacks. this goes back to the soviet era. the left is taking a page out of the playbook. if you look at countries like russia, they use the psychological attack against their political dissidents. people who them are president appointed himself. after they leave, they said it was a bad idea. identityfind out the of the person who drafted the op-ed, we will find out that it loyalist who has an
ax to grind with the president. if you look at these political attacks, this is a term that is used with governments. of political weaponization psychology that has been used in common use china and south , they areapartheid doing the same thing to president trump. >> the president right now is speaking in north dakota. he will go campaigning area he is backing some of the candidates there including representative kevin cramer. it's a good idea for him to be in the field for so many days? days ofxpecting 40 plus him to campaign. >> his approval rating is pretty high for a guy who is been under attack. his approval rating is 46%. that is pretty good. it is higher than obama at this
point in the presidency. >> his strong disapproval rating is higher than anybody has had. if you look at the washington post poll, they strongly disapprove it was well over 50%. that is different from what we have seen before. >> that poll was taken the week that manafort was sentenced. it came as michael collins plea came through. i look at the numbers. i wouldn't have a career without the numbers. if you look at the abc news washington post all, they got the election wrong by 10 points or more. before the election, visit hillary clinton was going to win in a landslide. there were only three pollsters who got that election right. i look at those old and i give
credence to them. the rest is a garbage in garbage out. >> as long as you are within the margin of error in cannot be wrong. silver has gone back to the drawing board. i think 538 is on top of the midterms. >> thank you. coming up, a nation divided. the outcome is far from clear and what many are calling the most divisive swedish election in decades. we will be live in stockholm coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
this is bloomberg markets balance of power. sunday swedish voters head to the polls for a close race. welcomeome down to how immigrants should be in the country. we will put up a chart here showing the various parties. they tend to group around to call it -- coalitions. those two coalitions are within the margin of error. >> they are very close. it is hard to say who the winner will be. even though one of the blocks will be eager than the other, that could still mean that the outcome is not decided on election night. there is a nationalist party that may win enough of the vote
to become the king. they have been advancing the polls since the refugee crisis. accepted more than 500,000 refugees over six years. it has been a dramatic few years. any are threatening to stop block from forming a government. it is most likely that they will support the alliance government which is the center right. on the other hand, they may become a smaller coalition than the opposition. is a bit confusing right now. >> however it comes out on sunday, in the end it will the issue of immigration be likely to be the determining factor is there something else? >> it is hard to say.
immigration will be something decided among all parties together. in a parliamentary committee. be thatue will not sweden will close its borders completely. evenconomy is doing well, though the markets are worried about this election, there is not about to be any drama. thank you so much. trump just told reporters on air force one that he is ready to impose tariffs on an additional 267 billion dollars ready to go on short notice if he wants. those be on top of a proposed
$200 billion that his administration is putting the final touches on. it's bring in our strategists. we are trying to do the math. we know that 50 billion of tariffs are in place. 200 billion could be coming. plus $267 billion. and if's $517 billion you look at the total imports from china over the previous 12 months, you get $528 billion. so basically we are looking at a tariff on every item that the u.s. imports from china, which is a -- quite a policy to have in place. >> we started the day worrying about jobs. the market is reacting a lot off-the-cuff announcement on air force one about the $267 billion additional tariffs. >> i am not sure i would agree with that agitation.
-- characterization. we didn't get an immediate announcement today, so many that allows folks to shift more towards jobs where the wage numbers are great. that is fantastic if you are earning a wage. let's good if you are the person paying the wage. interest rates went up. bond yields have gone up. now, we have this off-the-cuff announcement from the president. we have this off-the-cuff announcement from the president. he also said a somewhat confusing follow-up which is that the 200 billion could be soon based on what happens. with abeen speaking contact in the market who is trying to convince me that this means it isn't a done deal. i'm not sure if i believe him but there is enough uncertainty that if the market is going down
in the sense that we have this terror that has come out of thin air, there is enough uncertainty as to if the 200 billion is going to go through. burned so manyn times selling the headline that people are circumspect. >> who with this hurt more? the states or china given that markets are taking a hit but consumer prices are rising. >> there is a concept called a dead weight loss which is when you impose tariffs. i will go in to the supply and demand charts but essentially money is lost because of this inefficient levy. you could argue that u.s. consumers will lose by virtue of having to pay higher prices. you can argue that u.s. producers will lose insofar as
they have some input goods from china. their costs will go up and their margins will go down. ,hatever china decides to do they can't put tariffs on the equivalent size of u.s. goods because they don't buy enough. will they move the currency or take some other measure? >> this is an interesting juxtaposition of the markets. and politics. at this point, why shouldn't he go forward is the problem is the effect may be delayed. it may be the next year or year after. president used to operate casinos so he thinks and that sort of gambling mode. he made a comment a few months ago that he feels like he is playing with money.
i think it is a case that he will keep pressing his bets until the stock market called his bluff and told him he is wrong. when he throws out, another 267 and the stock market goes down one third of 1%, none of these signals are telling him he is wrong. >> thank you, cameron. we want to mention that barack obama is speaking at the university of illinois. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
two blocks are in a dead heat. mark they, we anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. on thursday, new york holds a governor cuomo against cynthia nixon. >> what happens to the tariffs that the president could impose on chinese goods? he has just said that they can be ready on short notice. this comes on top of the 200 billion in tariffs that he has already proposed. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network
ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your xfinity internet. so you just pay for data -- by the gig or unlimited. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. this is bloomberg real yield. coming up treasuries dropping payrolls beating forecasts. the president readying another round of tariffs on chinese imports. leaving emerging markets on edge and policymakers struggling. issue,n with the big another jobs report. >> i think this is one of the