tv Bloomberg Markets Balance of Power Bloomberg September 19, 2018 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
welcome to balance of power. for our brief today, we go to washington where every day seems to bring more questions about the confirmation hearings of judge kavanaugh and regular reporting on where canada and the u.s. are trying to find an agreement on nafta and to salzburg. we left yesterday. i thought we would have hearings on judge kavanaugh on monday. is that true? kevin: we do not know. chuck grassley wants to move ahead with that scheduled hearing on monday with judge brett kavanaugh, as well as his accuser. what we don't know is whether or not professor ford will decide to testify. senator grassley saying he is willing to have the hearing in a public or private manner. he has not heard back. democrats coming to the defense
of the top grandma -- democrat, dianne feinstein has faced criticism for how she brought -- failed -- how she responded to the allegation brought to her this summer. they say she was asked to keep this anonymous and she was seeking to respect those wishes. all of this comes very quickly as these developments are happening virtually within every hour. david: we will come back to you in a moment. let's go to bloomberg sarah mcgregor on a report of what is going on with nafta. sarah: a lot of news, yet not a deal yet. krista friedland is that the ustr as lions eking. she is -- as i am speaking. she is meeting with robert light house or for canada to join this pact.
we heard from the canadian prime minister earlier today who said, we still want a deal but we need to see movement. that is veiled language. canada and the u.s. are not telling us the hard issues, but we have heard the issues that still remain our dairy protections that canada put in place for its farmers and the u.s. request to get rid of dispute panels for antidumping cases. david: i want to go to salzburg, austria, to maria tadeo where they are having a big meeting in the european union to see if they can get brexit done. what is the latest? maria: a lot has been going on. we started off the day on a positive note, this idea that the european union and the u.k. are moving closer towards a deal. we would get a roadmap to a deal. sterling gained on that. on ahas been flipped
report from the times of london that theresa may will reject a proposal from the european union over what to do with the irish border. we heard from the head of the european commission donald tusk who basically said the same. he thinks with the u.k. has put on the table does not work and that will be a problem. if there is no deal about the irish border, there is no brexit deal. david: aren't they running out of time? maria: they are indeed running out of time. i also have to tell you, the deadline about brexit, when do we get the final deal, has also moved. we always operated on the basis it would be october and now that has changed. the deadline will be mid-november. we do not know exactly when but we are working on the basis that we will get specifics today or tomorrow. there are two reasons for an extension. one is technical details and two is the fact that european leaders will tell you theresa
may will have to make concessions, but will only do so after the party conference at the end of the month. david: that is maria tadeo from salzburg and sarah mcgregor from washington. i want to go back to kevin cirilli. the president went down to north carolina but said a few words about judge kavanaugh. let's hear what he had to say. >> we want to get it over with. at the same time, we want to give tremendous amounts of time. if she shows up, that would be wonderful. if she doesn't show up, that would be unfortunate. ,avid: so kevin, unfortunate can they really go ahead with this hearing if she does not show up? kevin: we truly do not know. just in the last two hours we ask chuck grassley and quite frankly, he was not willing to give us a specific answer about
the thought process he would give about whether or not to schedule or reschedule that particular hearing. there is that issue about the hearing. then the question becomes focused on only a handful of republican senators like collins, lisa murkowski, jeff flake, and what their vote would ultimately be given the razor thin majority the republicans have. right now, to be frank with you, it is just a lot of talk coming from president trump and the judiciary committee leadership in the sense that ultimately this will be decided by only a handful of key select republican lawmakers. david: you heard the president say he wanted to have tremendous amounts of time. how much time do they have and when does time start counting against judge kavanaugh as a practical washington matter? kevin: october 1 is when the supreme court will reconvene so it is looking increasingly
unlikely should the hearing not go ahead on monday, it would be increasingly unlikely that judge kavanaugh would be confirmed in time for that october 1 start, in terms of the supreme court reconvening. question thenhe becomes whether or not there were be a confirmation vote ahead of the midterm election. democrats are urging republican leadership to wait to have a vote before the fbi concludes an investigation into this alleged misconduct. republicans that i talked to say this has already been investigated during judge kavanaugh's background check by the fbi, and they argue it is the department of justice. what you are looking at now in terms of the republicans making the case that this is artie been investigated, democrats making the case that the fbi should investigate this and there ought not be a hearing until that concludes.
the question now, what do people like senator susan collins, lisa murkowski, bob corker, what do they have to say and where will they fall? right now, everyone is keeping their answers close at vast. the nomination of merrick garland is sort of looming around the capital. the member what happened. thank you so much to kevin cirilli. it is pretty interesting what we have going on today for the major averages, a mixed picture and a divergence between the dow up 7/10 of 1% and the nasdaq down about two tents of 1%. at the lows the die's neck -- nasdaq was down one half of 1%. the bulls are in charge more than the sellers. despite trade and other macro issues, the bulls are tepidly in charge, so much so that if we
look at a year today chart of the dow, we will see it is at its highest level -- this is all time high in january 26 -- less than 200 points from that mark. it will be interesting to see whether or not that is achieved, not today but perhaps this week. maybe the bulls will do what they did for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. 500,is an imap on the s&p energies and industrials are among the top sectors while technology is in the bottom. as for financials doing well, lots of big names. a bit of a rally going on four financial stocks, reading helped out by the fact that rates are rising. 10 year yields are up on the day and haven bonds are selling off. holding that 3% level, we have a great chart that suggests the 10 year yield may rise more. this is the 10 year yield over the last year.
the sellers of bonds are in control of this area of congestion. breaking out of it, this pattern suggests that bulls are very much in control and will send that 10 year yield up to 3.5% and may be higher. that would suggest maybe the environment will stay risk on. david: a lot of people get nervous at that 3.5% number. it is election season. that does not mean washington has altogether given up on policymaking. republican efforts to get one more tax bill through before the midterm elections. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: the odds are increasing that president trump will freeze canada out of the trade deal. even though nafta talks are picking up, a deal is unlikely to be reached. the countries remain at odds on dairy products and panels used .o respect -- resolve disputes president trump has proceeded with mexico only. new home construction rose to a three-month high in august. residential starts were up more than 9% to an annualized rate of 1.3 million. home-building is struggling to stabilize. senator chuck grassley, chairman of the judiciary committee spoke to reporters, saying there are four different ways christine ford can speak with the panel over allegations she brought accusing brett kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her.
>> we are doing everything that we can to make dr. ford comfortable with coming before a committee, either in an open session or a closed session, or a public or a private interview. mark: in a letter to the judiciary committee, her lawyer maintains she is prepared to cooperate with the panel but an fbi investigation should be "the first step" before she appears before the senators. the president says he wants to hear from dr. ford. trump making his comments today before leaving for north carolina. the president made it clear he stands behind judge kavanaugh but says if dr. ford shows up and makes a credible showing, " that would be very interesting." her lawyers want the fbi to
probe the allegation before she appears before the committee. global news 24 hours a day on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: thank you so much. republicans notched a big win last november with their tax overhaul but they are not done yet, with house republicans pushing for a tax cut 2.0 that would make some of the earlier cuts permanent. we welcome isaac boltansky from compass point, joining us from washington. there are some republicans who are not all that enthusiastic and particularly the publicans in so-called blue states that ine been hit -- republicans so-called blue states that have been hit by tariffs. one of the republican candidates from new jersey yesterday the number probably one issue people raise with me and what makes this so salient
as i think folks understand that right now, the republican house of representatives is marking up a bill to make the tax deductions permanent. that is the mandate they are seeking in these midterm elections. these republicans are coming from blue states. why are they in congress pushing this? isaac: i think if we roll back the clock to last year, the core concept was if the tax bill became law, republicans would be able to run on it. toy republicans will be able successfully run on that tax bill and broader economic growth. the issue is the old adage, all politics is local. we have candidates in new york, new jersey, california, illinois, minnesota, who i think are having some issue in selling this. it was actually a bloomberg report that came out a few weeks ago that noted about one third
of the competitive races the cycle are in those high tax states. referred toctually a monmouth university poll that came out overall on the popularity of the tax cut. perhaps somewhat surprising, only 34% of americans approve of the tax cuts. 41% disapprove and 24% are unsure. compared to last april, fewer people approve and fewer people disapprove and unsure is going up. what is going on? is this a tailwind for republicans? isaac: in some states it will be because of the booming economic growth we have. the concern is for some we are not seeing some of the things we thought we would, some of the repatriation. there are some developments we have seen in terms of capital flows and the trade dynamics that i think are weighing on the economic optimism that was
supposed to be a driving force for the republicans heading into november. david: people do not expect this to point out to make it through the entire congress, even if it makes it through the house. take us forward to after the midterms. we do not know what will happen in the house of representatives, but some people think it may be likely the democrats recapture the house. what does that mean for tax reform? what is likely to be done or undone? isaac: i think you are right, there is no chance this tax reform 2.0 package becomes law. when you did into this bill, there are some provisions that have a motive of bipartisan
support. the second pillar of this package would restructure some of our retirement plans. the third pillar would make it a little easier for sums are ups. -- some startups. and a divided congress, which is the likeliest option, those are the things that will get a real look from the house ways and means committee. david: whether it is popular or unpopular, the one thing that we -- and then we were narrowing the debt again, the budget deficit. now it is going south again. is that an issue at all politically in congressional or senate races? isaac: it is terrifying how little the issue of deficits are being discussed, either here in d.c. were on the campaign trail. i think it will be a bigger
issue as we get into next year, especially if republicans lose the house. we should remember that while we are battling over spending bills and will have a short-term punt to december of the federal funding, we are going to be looking down the barrel of a debt ceiling deadline next year. the soft deadline is march 1, and with the extraordinary measures which have become almost too ordinary in their usage, the deadline will probably get punted to the end of the summer. david: this growing deficit, the white line showing here that later on this year we could see that budget deficit. how big of a crisis could this be? we always have this and we always get our way out of it. isaac: it is something that in the wake of these tax cuts, we will have to grapple with at some point in her or later. it is tough to get politicians to focus on longer-term issues. this congress, like the past six
congresses, can only focus when there is a fire or a crisis. at the moment, there is no fire or crisis with where rates are. this is going to be something that i think becomes a louder talking point next year. in reality, d.c. neither has the capacity nor the willingness to tackle the underlying debt issues. david: you are a policy guy, not politics guy, but you cannot separate them. what is the mood on capitol hill about the midterm coming up? what the president saying there could be a red wave, what is the concern of republicans of complacency? isaac: the overwhelming odds and sentiment still in d.c. suggests that democrats will take the house but republicans are going to hold the senate, and possibly gain a few seats, which will result in legislative logjam.
they continue to focus on administrative actions. president obama famously said he would use his phone and his pen. thirdly, we will have an aggressive oversight agenda in all of the house committees, which will drive headline risk in a number of different sectors. david: thank you so much, isaac boltansky, from compass point research. president trump is trying to remake trade relations with china, but will his approach work and what consequences could it have? we asked former australian prime minister, kevin red. -- kevin rudd. ♪
the european commissioner says regulators are in the early stages of an antitrust probe, looking at how powerful online platforms are and how they affect competition. , itmentioned amazon by name is not the only one but presumably the biggest. the key is companies that have a dual-purpose, that sell goods but also allow other companies to sell goods. the question the e.u. is looking into is all about data, how does amazon use the data it gathers on sales about its competitors in the marketplace. does that give it an edge? it is impacting the stock today, down almost 2% earlier. it is still down about 1.5%. i am looking at the s&p 500 i met function, looking at all securities. amazon having the second biggest impact on the s&p today, given its size.
herean see we have amazon and that is having the second-biggest impact on the s&p 500 today. david: we talk about tech behemoths who can benefit their own operations and we think about google. google has had a little bit of trouble. emma: back in july, earlier this year the e.u. hit google with a $5 billion fine. the e.u. says it was abusing the dominance of its android system. a chart shows how much cash amazon got, about $26 billion, and would be able to pay it. there is no sense the investigation is near that stage at the moment. google is currently appealing the fine. david: there is also the change in the way they do business. in the longt money term if they have to change the
way fundamentally they run their algorithms. emma: that could be the biggest change and why google is pushing back and why we expect amazon to push back. amazon is under pressure in the u.s. president trump talked about the very antitrust situation between google, facebook, and amazon. he has accused them of crushing small businesses, dodging taxes, and taking advantage of the postal service. david: thank you so much. speaking of amazon, hear from ceo jeff bezos on peer-to-peer conversations with jeff -- david rosen sign -- david rosenstein. ♪
wants to hear from a woman who accused brett kavanaugh of sexual assault. the president made it clear he stands behind judge kavanaugh but still said that if christine blasey ford shows up and mix incredible showing "that would interesting." her lawyers say they want an fbi investigation before she will appear before the senate judiciary committee. the leaders of north and south korea have announced next steps to getting rid of the north's nuclear weapons. kim jong-un agreed to shut down a missile testing facility. will reportedly also close a nuclear facility depending on u.s. actions. that falls short of what washington has been demanding. still, president trump praised the action. there is a report british prime minister theresa may is referring to reject the european union's improved offer to resolve the irish border issue. negotiator michel barnier has
not dropped his insistence that northern ireland be treated as a separate customs jurisdiction from the rest of the u.k.. the irish border is one of the key issues preventing an agreement on a brexit deal. president trump is in north carolina where he is being briefed on recovery efforts following hurricane florence. andalled the flooding epic said disaster funds will arrive as fast as people need them. the president also praised him administrator brock long for his agency's response to the disaster. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you. maternal elections are just around the corner. -- eager toare user hold onto every seed they have. one of those is in the 19th district of new york, never presented by congressman john
faso. good to have you here, sir. we are going to start out with a synopsis about your district for those of us that may not be as familiar. showing a map and giving some basic facts. i would rather have you characterize it. ,ou are decidedly middle-class median income of six or $2000. is that how you see your constituents? >> it is definitely a middle income district, we cover the hudson valley, the catskills, we have hyde park, woodstock, bethel, new york, where that concert actually was, the baseball hall of fame in cooperstown. heavily tourist, heavily agricultural, small towns. filled with hard-working people. the district is doing reasonably well right now economically, much better in the last year and a half.
certainly, recovered from the recession. busy.ctors are very people that own hardware stores and convenience stores, places where contractors go for building materials, etc., they tell me they have never been so busy. but we have some underlying economic problems. agriculture is in deep trouble, especially dairy. we are very concerned about the trade issue because we have a lot of small manufacturers. i visited a sawmill yesterday in the western part of my district that is very concerned about the impact of tariffs with china. david: let's continue on that subject of trade. do you agree with the approach president trump is taking to trade with nafta, trade, china? i'm concerned about the approach the president has
taken. overwhelmingly he is correct about trying to focus on the chinese use of theft of intellectual property, violating of u.s.ements, in terms businesses doing business over there, the requirements they put on those businesses. overwhelmingly in that area the president is correct. concern that many of our businesses have is if they have an economic stake and use steel or aluminum in manufacturing, or if they are an apple grower, they are concerned about the uncertainty that the trade disputes we are having both with the eu and canada and mexico are having on their businesses. they want to see this concluded quickly. that is the overwhelming thing. they like the fact the president is standing up for u.s. business but they also want this to not last very long. david: another issue that has
come up is taxes, the tax cuts the republicans put through, got enacted last december. at the same time it's not clear the republicans are getting credit, if that is the right word. a survey shows, if anything, the tax cuts are becoming less popular overtime. somewhere down in the 34% range right now approval as opposed to 41% disapproval. is that a problem for you as you run for reelection? john: most people are not talking about the tax cut so i don't think it's the primary focus of concern right now. when i speak to small businesses, they like the pass-through for subchapter s corporations. larger companies like the fact that we are able to repatriate dollars earned abroad here to the u.s. without double taxation. those are all good things. the average person in my district is probably getting a tax cut, about $1500 per family.
that is more money in their pocket. i don't think this is, first and foremost come in the minds of people. employers tell me they cannot find people to fill the jobs they have. we have a situation in the country today where there are more job openings then there are unemployed people. we have a robust economic growth, over 4%. basically full employment right now. many businesses will tell you they cannot fill the jobs they have and that there is a mismatch with the skills that workers have with the skills they need in an employment. this is a big issue affecting us. one reason i want enhanced work requirements for public benefit programs like this that program, , is becauserogram we have a couple million people who are able-bodied or are not working or in a training program who should be working or training, in order to the treaty to receive benefits like food stamps. that is an issue that right now
divides democrats and republicans in washington. david: another issue is health care. i will put up some numbers approvalg some overall [indiscernible] in fairness, this happen before president trump came in, total negative you have surpassed total positive view. under president trump, it has not improved. is that an issue for your constituents, onto they see democrats as part of the solution, problem, republicans as part of the solution or problem? i think it is mixed. democrats will argue about the republican replacement bill. i supported that. it did protect people with pre-existing conditions despite with immigrants say. in myverage people say district -- and i think across the country -- they are
concerned about continuing increases in premiums and adopt the bulls. that is why we need to approach some other things to reduce the cost pressure. the main reason why health care costs keep going up is demographics. i don't think we can escape that. demographics are destiny. as we age in our population we will consume more healthcare services. americans demand the most advanced technological changes, technological changes, etc. there are cost pressures that we can address, and we should. we should have a reinsurance fund at the federal level so we can lower premiums and deductibles. are doing this successfully in states like wisconsin, minnesota. we should do this nationwide so we can reduce the exposure insurers had to high-cost patients and have that reinsurance fund pick up the cost for those patients. that would lower premiums and adoptable for everyone. you with us,o have
let's start with the chinese reaction to this imposition of 10% tariffs so far. we have heard from the premier. overnight he said they did not want to weaponize the yuan. go down thel never path of stimulating exports by devalue waiting its currency. david: you would never question someone's honesty, but do you believe him? he may mean it but how long can they stick with it? kevin: if you look at what has happened to the yuan in the last six months, its evaluation against the u.s. dollar and uncrossed trades has come down. the extent that it fully compensates for the additional impact on the cost of chinese goods on the market as a result of u.s. tariff increases. but it will remain, effectively, not declared, as an element of
,he chinese policy arsenal apart from the retaliatory measures being used against the u.s. through the chinese chapter measures announced in the last 24 hours. david: another possible option, to reduce the purpose of u.s. treasuries. their holdings this last month went down. some say that may have been in response, others say that has nothing to do with that. what is your response? kevin: my attitude to the chinese holding u.s. treasuries, they will never do anything contrary to their interest. they have an interest in making sure they are formidable in u.s. investments. no point in actually exiting out the back door and sending a signal to the marketplace that these things may not be valuable holdings in the future. that hurts yourself. i don't think that is part of
the policy arsenal at this stage. what you see with chinese holdings is more of a long-term, strategic hedge by diversifying their investment in -- let's call it hard to sovereign securities across the world -- to be less of dollar centric and everything they have got. but i don't think it is part of the policy arsenal to deal with this immediate challenge with the trade war. china so it makes sense, acting in its best interest. u.s. acting, in your opinion, u.s. companies best interest? ttspoke to kevin hasse this morning. u.s. china business council has come up with a survey of its members. 73% of its members doing business in china think this is a problem for them. in terms ofnk
chinese retaliatory measures it is. theourse, that will affect access to the chinese market of american goods, and in time, services. also at a deeper level, it poisons relationships. if you are doing business on the china, it does have a carryover affect, as people in chinese corporations get the is problematic to be in long-term business relations with american firms. politics is now coming in over the top of everything. to answer your question, is the current -- are the current measures employed by the u.s. administration in the best interest of american firms? it depends which sector you are in and which sector you are located in. to give president trump ihis due, i would say this. he has certainly caught the
attention of chinese policymakers. to begin with, they thought it was all bluff and bluster. then we had the first project of 35 million, then another 16 billion, i should say. dropped 200rd tron billion. so there is a big debate in china now about how to find a pragmatic outcome. but i think we are a ways off. the big focus of the meeting of the chinese leadership this summer in august was on the u.s. china relationship and specifically the trade war, how we manage it. david: how long will this go on? part of the survey also indicated, it is not just tariff s that will affect, it is disruption in supply chains, a range of issues that could hurt u.s. companies. how long can we afford to have that pain as a political matter? i cannot speak on behalf
of u.s. firms but i can give you a sense of where this goes in terms of resolution timetable. i think it is highly unlikely we will see any significant move to resolve this thing this side of due november 6. there is a reason, on the chinese side, they want to know if they are dealing with a stronger or weaker president, what will be the shape of the congress, its attitude to china, and three, will the president be making any changes in his administration? key personnel decisions that affect the relationship. the mood in beijing is let's hang back and wait to see what happens. secondly, the chinese attitude is we need to be confident there is a unified position within the administration. in our attempts to resolve this so far, american delegations to beijing, chinese delegation to
washington, both have floundered because there was a fundamental disagreement within the economic team and white house as to what the final american negotiating position is. so what is my prediction? seen't think we will substantial movement on the resolution until closer to christmas. effect ont larger global trade flows is this likely to have, will it reduce trade?wth in global measures being embraced by the u.s. and china begin to affect radically global supply chains, it is potentially disruptive. states -- itited is judge that china has a limited policy arsenal for practical reasons. china currently exports $500 billion to the united states. the united states exports 140 billion to china. therefore, whatever measures americanmpose on
exports will not match thatitatively the impact american measures on chinese exports to the united states. but here is the rub. if the chinese get further backed into a corner, one of the measures in the chinese policy toolkit is for china to begin considering the taxation of show insay american componentry the global supply chain before that file of good lands in the china's market. that is the case and we impose 20% on that, and then signal to other global suppliers that we are going to give you six to 12 months to alternative resource that, that not only punishes america on a much bigger scale, but then begins to really slow global trade. you recently wrote an
op-ed in the new york times. the question for me is to what extent could we change relations between the united states and china but also with other trading partners around the world? said as western democracies increasingly look sick, other governments are now on offer. china has become confident in its own model and the beijing consensus has held up to the non-western world as an example of a more effective form of national and international governance. what is the risk that trade relations will be fundamentally shifted for a generation, and people will turn to other places to do their business, rather than the united states? kevin: i think we are at strategic turning points. when the history of this time is written, mark 2019 in your diary. it is not just china's rise, it is now american countermeasures. the administration has represented real american sentiment in taking the posture it has taken.
but we are now seeing a deep parting in the ways, not just on trade relations, investment relations, where you have seen a slowing between the two, but also in the declared an undeclared war in high technology, which is now unfolding. so the period of strategic engagement between u.s. and china is yielding to this new period a strategic competition. what happens in the rest of the world? they begin to hedge and look at all the ways that they can carve out their future. david: that is kevin rudd, policynt of the asia institute. much more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ . this is bloomberg. ♪
opening the markets for china, that will be great for u.s. companies. that is our long-run objective. right now we're in a situation where china is abusing the trade policies, abusing the wto. we have to step in and get them to correct that. we have a list of demands that we are year to talk to them on but if they don't come around we will have to impose tariffs, which is really retaliation for the things that they and the doing to us. 1% and 3%ed between of gdp is being stolen by china every year from us. monday, $450 billion worth of imports. the president raising questions about another two at $60 billion worth of tariff. at some point, that must affect gdp growth. what have you advise the president about the possible effects on gdp if this continues? kevin: i cannot talk about my discussions with the president,
but the way that we can think about it, we can buy the stuff from somewhere else and it will not have a big effect on us. certainly in the early tranches of the tariff, the ustr has looked at close substitutes for china. that is why you see a big effect on china, small effect in the u.s. david: in the short-term, consumers don't see it right away. it takes a while to work its way to the supply chain. coulda says that this last 20 years, others saying a long time. economic effects if the chinese don't back down, we stick to our position, and this goes on for years? kevin: of course we hope that does not happen but the bottom line is a long-run effects of this are much smaller than the short run. in the short run, you get disruptions of supply chains and so on, but ultimately those applied to a move around if we are unable to work at our differences.
in the end, we will work out our differences, we are grateful they are willing to talk, we are as well. we have a well-defined list of asks for china. lots of room to reach an agreement. the bottom line we are starting from a situation where they are misbehaving. david: that was my conversation with kevin hassett. sign up for the balance of power newsletter and get the latest on global politics every single day. coming up, the cme chairman terry duffy. he will talk about the othertion of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. that is coming up at 2:00. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪