tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg November 18, 2018 7:00pm-9:00pm EST
haidi: asia's major markets have just opened for trade. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: the tech talks wrap up as the u.s. and china trade comments. shery: theresa may fights for survival as her enemies threatened a revolt. brussels says the u.k. transition period could be extended. haidi: the u.s. -reports-
president trump says the assessment is premature. let's get you the first word news from hong kong. rosalind: president trump visited california, seeing firsthand the devastation from the deadly wildfires that have killed at least 76 people, left more than 1000 unaccounted for, and caused billions in damage. the president is trying to find common ground and how do solve the problem, marking a change in tone of his previous criticism of the state's democratic leaders. >> nobody would have ever thought this could happen. the federal government is behind you. we are all behind each other. speaking,i have been gavin and i have now gotten to know each other. we will all work together and do a real job. this is very sad to see. rosalind: theresa may is herinuing to say
eurosceptic opponents do not have the numbers to oppose her. her leadership has been threatened but yet to be formally announced. critics say removing her will not change the situation. at the same time, the chief eu negotiator is asking the deadline be extended. italy's populist coalition says it is ready to talk to the eu about its budget. a major spending and she must remain in place. the deputy prime minister says the government is ready to eradicate wasteful programs. but the basic plan will stay. that whent to reject it reviews spending plans on wednesday. fedex says that is not planning to upgrade, dropping plans to make -- elon musk to aided the rocket will have only minor changes.
will have said spacex an accelerated design program he describes as delightfully counterintuitive. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tic toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. haidi: looks like a difficult start to the week for asian equities. japan's trade deficit widening more than expected. aipac ended last week with the optimism over trade. these japan trade numbers certainly not enough to suit any supplys we are seeing chain worries play out. guest: it is actually a very strange morning. it has been rather quiet. the aussie and the kiwi sold off a bit.
but nothing to really scale us back down from the strong optimism that came through at the end of last week. i think we are in a situation risk assets have it sold down so much that getting to levels that are potentially extremely attractive , so people are reluctant to sell further. just at the moment no one wants to buy, etiher. maybe we need to wait until the end of november, once we get to the fed meeting, once we get the xi/trump meeting and a definitive answer how bad it is. i think we have the tariffs being raised to 25% already, so the question becomes how much worse can it get on trade. and we need to see real data come through. the japanese numbers could be part of it. shery: no surprise people are skittish given remarks we saw the last week talking about policy getting close to neutral,
and the global economy was slowing down. garfield: yes. investors have just about gotten used to the trump white house going back and forth every second minute on trade in what is going on there. to theve become used idea that the fed will stick to its tightening path. now, isn't going to stick to that tightening path? that has been the single biggest development and markets. we had a very strong re-pricing in the euro dollar futures curve, where they are looking much less in the way of hikes going forward in 2019. that is another thing that will have investors started to second-guess themselves and recalibrate things, especially now as we are in the end of the year and looking forward to next year. shery: thank you so much for that, garfield reynolds. one market we have kept a close
eye on was saudi arabia, because stocks were under pressure after the cia reportedly concluded crown prince mohammad bin salman played a role in the death of journalists jamarcus so she. -- jamarcus so key -- the president says the conclusion is premature. >> will anybody really know? he certainly had people that were close to him that were probably involved. massive sanctions on a large group of people from saudi arabia. same time we do have an ally and i want to stick with now i that in many ways has been very good. shery: theresa may heads into the week fighting for her brexit deal and for her own political survival. was bring in our senior international editor. let's start with the chaotic brexit process.
can we expect to see 48 being triggered in order to get a no-confidence vote for prime minister may this week? jodi: she certainly hopes not. she is well aware that there could be a no-confidence vote but they do not have that number yet. her latest statements are is it told be a distraction to try focus on her and have a no-confidence vote in her when what really needs to happen is to push this brexit deal through. the latest deal which would of course have a longer transition with the bigl sticking point, the irish border. some in the eu is saying it could go to 2022. of course euro skeptics are saying this is not a good deal. that they really need to rethink all this. that theresa may continues to say this is the only alternative
and anything else would be chaos. and she is trying to push this through parliament even know of course it is a very divided parliament and it will be very hard to get through. but she is continuing to push good -- push. haidi: what is the u.s. now saying about the jamal khashoggi murder? reports that the cia was saying that the assassination was ordered by the crown prince himself. president trump as you just heard is pushing back on that saying we do not really know yet , that we do not know this came from the crown prince and he still wants the u.s. to continue that relationship and it is an important economic relationship. doesn't he is saying he know the cia report says that. he says there will be a full report coming out tuesday about this. of course president trump has continued to say he wants to
continue things like arms sales to saudi arabia, even as he gets a lot of heat in congress and elsewhere about taking steps against the regime, there. shery: one report we have been waiting for for over a year, special counsel molars -- robert mueller's report. there were concerns that the acting attorney general could curtail this investigation. what is the latest on that? jodi: president trump told fox news over the weekend that he would not attempt to get wholved if mr. whitaker, took over from mr. sessions last week, was to try and stop the investigation. of course president trump went ahead and made him acting attorney general after firing jeff sessions the day after the midterm elections. there is a lot of talk in congress, particularly among
democrats, about mr. whitaker not being -- should not be in that position. and also that he was not even confirmed by the senate. he was just session's chief of staff. president trump is saying that action. not take any of course president trump himself has been a big critic of mr. mueller's investigation, calling it a witch hunt many times. haidi: jodi, thank you. there are rising fears is morning of an economic cold war possibly dividing asia. this, after the apec summit ended on sunday in disarray. is back on dry ground. he was covering aipac. these communiques tend to be pretty broad strokes. they could not even get it
together to do that for the first time ever in a pack. mind in october when the finance ministers got together, they put out a communique and only mentioned in the 1800 word communique, they only mentioned trade once. that either means they are not worried about trade or avoiding the elephant in the room. i suggest it is the latter. they were avoiding the big issue. look what happens this time. aipac leaders came up and they finalnot even agree on a statement, even a watered-down final statement. chinese officials at the end rejected to a pledge to include the warning that all memory nations would fight against all unfair practices. that is something china want to water down a bit according to u.s. officials. at the end they did not put out a statement and the prime minister of the host country
papua new guinea summed it up by saying the entire world is worried. you are right that this is the c,rst time that a pack -- ape they started putting out these closing communiques that they did not put out a final statement showing the fractured nacre -- nature of the g2. let me sum up some of the comments. xi jinping said a trade war is shortsighted, it is doomed to failure. he said it is not a death trap, as some people like mike pence called appeared -- called it. haidi: very harsh rhetoric. what can we expect out of the g20 in two weeks? stephen: i got an email from a
friend of mine in the finance industry saying the you think we will have a deal in the next 14 days between china and the u.s.? there was a lot of optimism after donald trump on friday signaled there could be a deal in the works. i was right on the front lines with xi jinping and mike pence. neither one backing off one bit. perhaps it is just verbiage coming from two positions of perceived strength. we will notce said change course until china changes its behavior. have now the battle lines not only been drawn but they haven't underlined. shery: investors following very closely what will happen in the next two weeks. still ahead, political wrangling is likely to increase the pressure on the yuan. we will discuss the implications. -aidi: fedex tightening -
haidi: this is daybreak: asia. says anyr next guest recovery in asian equities is inextricably linked to a breakthrough in trade talks between the u.s. and china. joining us from hong kong is the principal portfolio strategies and head of asia portfolio manager. thank you so much for your time. we were speaking the stephen engle a couple moments ago and he was telling us about this huge divide between china and the united states. if we don't get any breakthrough at the g20, what will leave a turning point for equity markets in asia? >> hi.
if you do not get a breakthrough at g20, markets will selloff. you have seen the recovery and sentiment the past couple weeks on the expectation they are going to start the negotiation to ass, which would lead deal over the next two to three months. you see the rally in asian equities. -- he same time you see if there is no deal at least in the near term than there will be a risk sentiment. shery: what about valuations? we saw asian stocks getting cheaper and cheaper. valuations dropping last month to the lowest since 2016. could this support markets? >> absolutely. valuations are fairly attractive in all of asia. you look at it in absolute terms. japan, hong kong, china,
singapore. they are all very cheap. the concern is for growth outlook, where is where job owning comes in. valuations will carry the markets higher. believe by thee first quarter of next year, the u.s. fed will start backing off to some extent. the treasury will peak at 3.5. that should set the stage for a fx andy, as well as interstate markets. haidi: the comments from jay powell last week that was then hyphened suggested they might be a little more of a dovish tilt for the fed next year. >> they should be because if they hike in december this year, maybe first quarter of next year, their perception of
incoming data at that point in time will be different than this year because they were seen as moving towards neutral this year. imen the fact you have the pulse from fiscal, growth has been very strong. but we expect growth to taper down next year. of course they are cognizant of the fact that global growth has not been a strong. so the feedback loops. it will also impact growth in the u.s. therefore we expect the fed to be more balanced into 2019. that should provide some support to asian equities here. haidi: that takes me to a question about emerging markets. we have seen almost a bottoming sdi, talking about fx, m emerging-market currencies breaking through finally last week. seeing the underperformance when
it comes to equity markets as well. i want to throw out this chart. emerging markets are finally stopping underperforming. opportunities as well as a lessening of risk in this space now? >> there would be an opportunity here. valuations is just not that big into equities. it is also happening to fx. also interest rates in emerging markets have gone up. there has been a realignment of expectations in this part of the world, justifiably so. given the economic environment we are in. as we often see in these parts of the world, markets tend to be correlated. they tend to go hand in glove. there is sentiment in one part of this investable universe in emerging markets. it should have positive repercussions on the other as well. given the cheapness as a said
earlier, you could see a turnaround in sentiment. signs have been visible already. shery: finally on the dollar, because you were talking about fx, this chart showing the dollar long. a really crowded market right now. when do you expect a peak in the usd? >> my feeling is sometime first quarter next year when the market seriously starts pricing in, the fed will turn either really neutral and not hike once every quarter, or even turn dovish. recognizing the gains they have made so far in terms of tightening domestic financial conditions, and the impact it has had on u.s. growth and global growth. haidi: great to have you. head of asia portfolio manager with us. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak.
she intends to remain on the board of google parent alphabet. haidi: the central bank money blower -- bank's trading operations from 2007 until april 2014. left after alerting management to suspicious amounts of money flowing to the bank's estonia unit. he later spoke out through the media. shery: black rock is set to be thinking of applying for and mutual funds licensing and china to exert more control over its operations there. sources tell us the company is in talks to sell its 16.5% stake in bank of china investment management and asked -- blackrockid he hopes can become a strong player in china. one company i'm keeping a close eye on, fidelity investments. bloomberg markets spoke
exclusively to the ceo, as well as kathy murphy. they were just discussing their efforts over the last three years to increase diversity at fidelity investments. they were talking about trying to get half of fidelity's new hires and branches to be women. what will attract more women? they think it will be folks ability. of course because of all this, they are talking about this confidence gap women have when it comes to investing. they were discussing they are in the midst of a $22 trillion shift in assets to women. a very interesting article that people can find on bloomberg markets. haidi: yeah, really interesting talking about the way the technology, even something as simple as working remotely is not just benefiting women, but also meant. too.nd addads
a lot of this came out of sexual misconduct allegations. those conversations about unconscious bias and hiring were really constructive and how sometimes it is not that hirers wants to go with a man, it is just what they are used to. some interesting conversations going on. sounds like they are trying to put in play targets to make changes with regards to inclusion and diversity at fidelity. coming up next, we take a look at its performance since going public. where the company goes. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
haidi: it is 8:30 in hong kong, and our on the open of trading. -- an hour from the open of trading there. we have thursday, friday off in the u.s. for thanksgiving. we have the apec summit in png that ended in a fractious and disarray kind of manner, no joint communique being signed by the asian nations for the first time since the summit began. the tussle over trade between beijing and washington, not a great deal of hope for us in the start of the trading week. i am haidi stroud-watts. shery: i am shery ahn. thanksgiving shortened the week,
and we will see thin trading volume which could mean more volatility. let's get to first word news. ros: the apec summit wound up in papua new guinea failing to issue a joint communique since the first time since 1993. the china balked at the wording of trade, [indiscernible] all unfair trade practices. the u.s. trade were overshadowed the talks as they traded barbs in back-to-back speeches. >> let me make this clear. the belt and road initiative is an open platform for open corporation. it is guided by the principles of the consultation and cooperation for a share of the benefit. it is not designed to usurp any political agenda. it is not targeted against anyone or exclude anyone. it is not an exclusivity closed to nonmembers or a trap some have labeled.
ros: the trump administration will issue its report into the investigation on the murder of tuesday,shoggi thinking the murder was indicated from the highest level. say the prince approved the murder. president trump said that could never be proved. the cia report is premature, he says. >> will anybody really know? he did have people that were reasonably close to him and close to him that were probably involved, so we put on heavy sanctions, massive sanctions on a large group of people. at the same time we have an ally and i want to stick with an ally that has been good. thousand than 2.5 central american migrants arrived at the border with the city of juarez saying it cannot cope. people are in line to start the asylum process but they are only
processing about 100 claims a day. the backlog could last six months and the u.s. will not stand for what president trump describes as an invasion. union is working on new rules to prevent foreign investment threatening security amid increasing concerns of the pace of acquisitions by china. draft legislation could be announced tuesday, with concerns about -- earlier this year to germany blocked a chinese bomber from buying a robot maker. the falcon emissions scandal could have been averted after a senior executive reported manipulation in 2011. they say it whistleblower alerted the authorities of regulations put in place to allow staff to report illegal activity. someone reported it manipulation thenot -- reported manipulation but not the exact scandal. global news 24 hours a day, on
air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. geopolitics continue to dominate in treating this monday morning. adam haigh is here with us. is there any hope after the disarray in png over the weekend we can still make it beyond trade? if you believe the asian equities sentiment, there is an element of risk on trade and something to be done. u.s. futures are off this morning, a dampening risk asset -- appetite. it comes down to the argument we were hearing from the principal at global. if you think the irish and discounts in asian markets are good enough -- of the valuation discounts in asian markets are good enough, the fed will have inpedal on the pause button
20 19, then you have a good backdrop for asset prices across asia. valuation discounts are there, growth is in tact in most places. there is enough to sway the argument. what we are seeing is we had a big risk ally over the big weeks, people going into the ofk and of last week -- end last week. mike pence and some of the had taken risk appetite back, titles expectations back somewhat, then you have 10 days or so to go. not running out of time before the end of the year and the new implementation. a bit of limbo in terms of the markets i think. themes being key played in, value -- u.s. versus the rest of the world. where are we for 2018?
u.s. equities have been the standout outperform or this year, and that is showing signs starting to turn it whether it is a short-term our longer-term, it is a open question as people get to grips for the 2019 forecast. certainly in the most recent bout of turmoil, emerging market assets has started to outperform on a relativeo -- basis. value in the european equity u.s.t and also in the equity market in outperforming growth, we have seen stocks going on significant pressure. some of it has followed into the outperformance of value. on the flipside of that, some of the trade wars -- trades that have not worked unless you have been on the deal side, like the australian dollar, it is starting to turn and it is up 3% and having, leading g10
currencies higher. a lot of it governs the way markets have behaved in 2018, over the last four or five weeks showing signs of turning. whether it is more of a short-term blip or fundamental that will carry through to 2019 and characterize how markets play out, a little bit too early to tell, certainly for the folks at citigroup. they think the relative underperformance is just a blip, and we go back next year to seeing u.s. still wanting to outperform emerging markets. shery: adam haigh. xiaomi's internet services business to be firmly in focus when they report monday evening in hong kong. investors looking for evidence the company is becoming less reliant on hardware sales. tom mackenzie joining us now. so the founder describes a
xiaomi as an innovation driven internet company. we see that reflected in this report? that is the key question, to what extent are they moving outlined.at which was we know they are division remains with the short -- with the smartphone sales of xiaomi which still have quite a lot of revenue versus the internet services part which drives contributes less than 10% from the second-quarter results of revenues. we will see as you say whether or not that shift is starting to change, the pendulum shorting to swing in the right direction. in terms of bloomberg technology , they think smart phone sales will soften because of weakening demand and also currency effects, not just in china but with the weaker rupee in india which is a major overseas market
for this company. bloomberg intelligence thinks the internet services side, the profit growth is going to be sustained and relatively robust. they expect to see greater monetization for the company. we could see an uptick in users for the operating platform as well, which in june they had 200 million monthly users. we will see if that has come up there that could feed into advertising revenues for this business. haidi: the share price has been under pressure since it listed. is this an opportunity for some? since the down 24% july listing in hong kong. out of the 24 analysts who monitored this, bloomberg looks buy rating.have up they expect an upside on average of 50% in the next 12 months, so the 18 analysts with the buy
ratings. there is still division. this one said stock remains overvalued. the pronouncements of management not being reflected in the fundamentals of this business. citigroup, which initiated a buy rating, so there is potential investors are overlooking the opportunities, given the overseas expansion opportunities for xiaomi. the cut prices on these products and whether or not they can feed or create a feedback loop for the business. citigroup is confident they can, but we will see who is closer to being right out of these two, when the company reports third-quarter earnings at the end of the day hong kong time. tom mackenzie in beijing. asia kicks off the week with a big meeting of the reserve bank of india board of directors where the government demand for more liquidity in the banking system has turned into a very contentious war of words.
kathleen hays is here with a preview. what is at the heart of this standoff? kathleen: reserves, liquidity, does the banking system have enough? should the reserve bank loosen up the level it wants to see in the banking system? it is a tax question. they have a lot of reserves their building up, creating surplus, due to holding a foreign currency. they are not really related to the kind of issue the banks are raising. and you saw a picture of finance minister -- who is definitely on the side of prime minister modi saying the r.b.i. has been too tough on the banks and bad debt, and they need more reserves in the banking system. this is something the r.b.i. could do. the economy was after because of a lack of liquidity caused by the reserve bank of india, r.b.i. are
worried about independence. they are worried about government influence. they want to have their inflation fighting credibility intact, and they think it is important for the big banks in india, state-owned banks, to clean up the bad debt. they could help prime minister modi correct his budget deficit. saysconomics team in india there is merit in these demands for more capital and a limited surplus transfer from the r.b.i. to the banks, the government could end this. there is room for compromise. trade we had japan's numbers showing a bigger widening in the trade to visit in october. will this be a problem for the boj if they get inflation rates this week? kathleen: it was much bigger than expected, the biggest widening since 2015. exports are very important to
the economy. this case it was a jump in imports that widened the deficit. this could be a drag on japan's fourth quarter gdp number. library, you can see the trend has been shifted here. it was better, not quite so good now. at any rate we are giving it you now. you can see the tsunami for the big dent in the trade position caused that deficit. the green bar, suddenly this red one. this is the concern for the bank of japan. it is not expected to continue. we shall see. the trade war and so many, it is an issue. bank of japan governor kuroda will be speaking today. bank ofident of the france speaking as well. it will be interesting to see what he could be asked about the economy, inflation. big report out later this week.
if he gives anymore sense that he is a series about the notion the boj will have to start their exit, but most people say not now. this is not the tame -- time, not during the trade war or questions of their economy. nevertheless we will have a look later and talk about it later as the news comes out. haidi: too much going on. thank you for that, kathleen hays. trade tensions continuing to pile on the pressure on the yuan. we will look at where the currency goes. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
the dollar and yen appreciated in line with other havens. coo.ve a securities it makes sense. you will see greater declines for the yuan. the question is how much appetite the have for weakness. .> it will be interesting we are not particularly strong levels for the yuan, and we haven't seen that kind of aggressive turnaround. we see some of the other apec summit currencies. if it does move to the downside, that [indiscernible] it will be interesting to see if the pboc come in relatively close levels. we have seen sharp moves down from 697 levels. it could be very interesting for the yuan. --di: if you look at the art the anchor currency in this part of the world, that divergence is breaking up your we saw the southeast asian central banks really plunging ahead with their tightening regime. nick: we have seen fantastic moves in indonesia where the
philippine peso had a really good strengthening, massive turnaround. the good deal has become a big issue for some of those currencies. -- liquidity has become a big issue for some of those currencies. whether we see the catch-up will be interesting the next five or six weeks. these tensions are really crucial for those next moves. shery: the u.s. dollar and its direction has confounded markets this year. saying thetanley is dollar bull run has ended, and it is time to sell. what do you think? nick: i am not sure i agree. there is further to go in this bull run. we did get an interesting subtle change of not direction but the vice chair said they are starting to take notice of the global growth. i don't think it will have much of an effect in the short to medium term. i expect the underlying fundamental to keep the dollar bid, but it is something we will
look at more closely into 2019. lots: what will begin in of headlines from the brexit process. we are seeing investors becoming the most bearish on the pound. the premium options on the currency but versus calls, the most since june 2016 was was when the brexit actually happened. where do you think the currency is going as you try to figure out the process and prime minister may's plans? nick: i certainly think it will see movement in sterling, and the market seems fired up for that. fly ond all look to be a the wall in the various discussions ongoing in london. i am tending to lead on the side she might get things done and get the deal through. that leads to a strong rally in the sterling.
we can't ignore the downside risk as well if it looks like there will be challenge to leadership, another referendum or general election on the back of this, it can only need a strong downside move. but probably real depreciation for sterling as well. shery: what do you think about u.k. equities? we have seen upside saying the boe will not act given all of the chaos. i think that is possibly something, the main strength we see. cable has come profit has helped the u.k. equities. if we do see that pressure to the downside, it will pull back on the mp's and the bank of england from doing anything with regard to rates, and that should help keep u.k. rates supported in the short to medium term. haidi: looking forward to what they have to say. not a great deal of
news flow. what is coming through is not great when you look at apec and the disarray that is brexit. it, butcontrarian about have investors felt doubt to the point where there is not much more to go? nick: there is a certain amount of -- that is a good argument from certain forces because there is still a lot of investment dollars out there, and they need to move in certain places but my concern, what they saw this week seems to really be an escalation. the markets have not reacted that way, and that is a good thing, but there could be further downside. certainly there may be some bond takers coming in and looking for value but personally i think more downside will come and get things cheaper. do you think the fall tariffs are priced in? nick: i think they are. we have never seen such high moves from the u.s., we don't
know what the full impact is going to be. for that reason i don't think they are totally priced in. it has been a lot of forward projections made but they are just projections. i think there is more on the conservative side of rings. and mike pence of upping the rhetoric of they might increase tariffs again, there is more for the apex region. haidi: thank you for joining us. shery: let's look at the stories trending across the bloomberg universe. trade dominating headlines. bloomberg.com, why analysts say we are moving towards zero-sum game geopolitics. trump saying he won't stop, he his acting stop attorney general if there is a stop to the probe. and see how young people are making christmas tree is
a merger could be announced in six months. saying sherryimes redstone is considering a three-way deal that would add .ake two interactive the boss is likely to lead cbs and viacom if the merger goes ahead shery:. rio tinto says aluminum producers will need additional smelting capacity outside china has inventory shrinks in the coming years. aluminum demand remains at showing, but china may not need such a significant importer. there is a positive view on aluminum while goldman sachs says the market is too relaxed about demands to supply. decision --'s another victory for elliott management and a push for radical overhaul. the former merrill lynch banker will succeed the other person who was ousted last week for announced -- resisting the call
for the landline network to be spun off. topndermines a trap -- telecom italian shareholder. ♪ haidi: let's take a look at the next few hours on bloomberg tv. what are you watching? david: happy monday. how is everything? still recovering from the weekend, getting warmed up here. two guests to tell you about, the chief asian economist from goldman sachs. what goldman did, they started slashing on their growth projections for the asia-pacific into next year, everything from tight financial conditions to trade. china bumped higher, so we will ask why and the risks for the outlook. speaking of trade and economics,
someone is joining us, a professor from cornell. headed it had the china -- the china division. talking about whether or not china has more scope or pace. when you look at what andrew goldman is saying, there is not a lot of space in other words, the data has not shown this stimulus china has announced. we will see and try to put those things together for our viewers. looking forward to it. before we get over to bloomberg markets, take a look at how we are trading in the region. japan as well as the kospi seeing upside. we will take it. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
david: equity markets slightly higher. major negative news. rishaad: and all. that took place -- and awful spat that the place at the apec summit. yvonne: that communicate, we haven't seen that out of aipac. that is a big concern as we get closer to the g20 meeting in one of cyrus -- in buenos aires. singapore purdue much flat at the moment. more resurgence here -- singapore pretty much flat at the moment. more resurgence here. we had some pretty decent exports and trade numbers that came through out of tokyo. it wasn't as big as expected.
we see more resurgence on the trade front. speaking, we are pretty mixed at the moment when it comes to equities. more strength coming out of the asian session. if you take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to that out of we have snapped the five weekly gains when he came to the dollar. a lot of calls whether the dollar rally has peaked. morgan stanley chiming in, saying it is time to sell the greenback. widening spreads will hurt the dollar. we heard the comments from the vice chairman, richard clarida, a couple of days ago, talking about pouring cold water on the dollar ready. policy -- dollar rally. policy getting too close to neutral, he said. the market pricing in the fact that perhaps the fed cannot be
as aggressive next year. you see that in the bond market as well. what ayear yield, changeup we have seen. it seems around 3.2% earlier this year. seems like now the direction of yield is tilted to the downside, which is probably a good when it comes to e.m. as well. we have seen an inflection point where e.m. is outperforming u.s. stocks at the moment, which could be boding well for this part of the world as well, where stocks are holding their own at the moment. how about feed into the china market and how things will shape up in the open. pretty decent to where futures are pointing to. a shares have seen the rest weekly gains -- the best weekly gains. much flatalso pretty
at the moment. we will talk about the turnover we have seen in hong kong. it has been pretty low. rishaad: an economic cold war asia afterparating that meeting in new guinea. david: stephen engle was there for us. he is back. what happened? stephen: there was no communique. pec.ve covered many a covered --not even they couldn't even come up with one that is watered-down. this is from the u.s. side, there may be some spin going on. there is a report in the ft saying that chinese officials
barged into the papua new guinea foreign ministry where they were working on the final communication. even the police had to be called because it got a little rough. that is a report that the chinese have refuted as spin by the other side. this is what xi and mike pence crisscrossed back and forth at the summit on the pacific explorer this weekend. >> mankind has once again reached a crossroads. which direction should we choose? cooperation or confrontation? openness or closing one's door? win-win robbers or zero sum game? the interest -- when-win progress or zero sum game? >> the united states will not change course until china changes its ways. >> let me make this clear, the
belt and road initiative is an open platform for cooperation. it is guided by their principles of the consultation and cooperation for a share of the benefit. by a hiddensigned geopolitical agenda. it is not targeted towards anyone and it does not exclude anyone. >> the united states offers a better option. we don't drown our partners in a sea of debt. we don't compromise your independence. the united states deals openly and fairly. when you partner with us, we partner with you and we all prosper. heated. quite all of this as we answered into this meeting. there was a feeling, even donald trump hinting -- david: -- onphen: markets popped up friday.
the increased tariffs in january could be delayed. posturing. these were sales pitches by china and the united states, if you will. i passed through singapore on the way back here. i spoke to some singaporean friends. they were shocked by the prime mr. there -- the prime minister some point,id, at you will have to pick china or the united states. very sharp words, even from the singaporean prime minister. it is shaping up to be a very interesting g20 where trump and xi jinping should be meeting. kevin, what did -- rishaad: kevin, what did you make of it all? >> certainly disconcerting. we did not expect relations between the u.s. and the chinese to improve or a deal to be set
in the next couple of weeks. what we have been preparing for is the trade were between the u.s. and the chinese will go on for quite some time, due to the fact that we do not expecting's to end -- expect things to end good anytime soon. id: why are you up global equities? or is that not a function of one or the other? >> you find that use equities is about 50%. -- you find that u.s. equities is about 50%. when there is political process in the u.s., where fiscal policy is concerned, equities tend to perform very well. 1950, they do extremely well in a relative and absolute basis whenever there is a gridlock in congress.
you are also overweight on 10-year treasury's. -- treasurys? why is that? are you thinking that there will not be as many? shotguns actually a trade for us. we felt the selloff in use treasuries would happen over time, given the global economy is likely to take a pause next year. the european economy has not been firing on all cylinders. there is a sign that this trade war could lead to the u.s. economy slowing down. as trump escalates the situation in january, the u.s. economy will also slow to, and not just the chinese economy. if that is the case, the federal
reserve will be hard-pressed to raise rates three more times next year. therefore, it is enough to keep u.s. treasuries where they are right now. david: i imagine that is good news for everyone else. get to paul allen in sydney for an update of our first word news. exports rebounded last month after the first climb -- decline in two years. 8.2%, slightly below forecasts. 20%,ts climbed almost leaving a deficit of $4 billion million.mates of $620 president trump visited california to see firsthand the devastation from the wildfires that has killed 76 people and
left more than a thousand and caused billions of dollars in damage. a change of tone to his previous criticism of the democratic leaders. >> you see what has happened here. no one would ever have thought this could have happened. the federal government is behind you. we are all behind you. been speakingve and gavin and i have gotten to know each other. we are working together and we are doing a real job. this is really sad to see. italy's populist coalition says it is ready to talk to the major the eu, but the standing issue must remain in place. demaio said the government is ready to eradicate wasteful programs but the basic reforms plan will stay. brussels is expected to reject
that. german business newspaper says the volkswagen scandal could have been avoided. the paper says documents show the whistleblower alerted the authorities put in place to allow vw staff to report the activity. someone reported manipulation, but not the exact issue that later triggered the scandal. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: why investors should be putting their money to china as trade tensions widen. david: theresa may turns to the business community for support as her brexit deal faces widespread opposition.
market indications that the deal made happen. yvonne: if you have any questions, join the conversation by sending us instant messages during the show. tv is what you are looking at right now. press that will link at the bottom. the chat room comes up. you can send a message to me, david, rish as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> nobody knows. the british don't know. the only solution is to work on options, stand ready, be ready to serve the clients, whatever happens. >> you have to plan for what could be the outcome, which is the hardest to do and then you go to the one that is easier to do. david: the heads of some of the biggest banks on the possibility that we don't get a deal here on brexit. prime minister theresa may is urging british businesses to support her deal. her withdrawal agreement has come under fire within her own party. david: she is facing a tough week ahead. ofy are still a vote short
triggering a leadership challenge. it seems like an almighty mess, doesn't it? we could be looking at a hard brexit, perhaps even more realistic opposition than before this so-called deal. >> absolutely. sterling, at the euro it reacted that way over the last week or so, with the sterling weakening now. we need to be clear. a hard brexit would not just heard the u.k. economy. it will certainly hurt the eu economy. it comes at a point in time when there is a lot more to the deal them before. given that the economy weakened in the third quarter this year, given that the ecb is likely to actually disapprove the italian budget as well, all of this is
adding to the mess that is starting to grow with the eu's concern. something -- with the eu is concerned. neutralet you are equities. speaking to your point on italy, you are overweight on the two-year in italy. side,the u.k. equities where the ftse 100 is concerned, a lot of stocks' earnings are not affected by a week's selling. therefore, we expect the sterling to continue to remain in this situation on a short-term basis given the fact it we do not have any certainty to be resolved until december at least. if it continues to be we, that is good for u.k. equities. u.k. equities are really cheap.
we have a chart that shows the discount that brexit is representing for u.k. equities. the ftse 100 has very little business in the u.k. itself. they are looking cheap. are you advising your clients thusly? >> we think we should be neutral in u.k. equities. if you have nothing in the u.k. right now, there's no need to rush because it could get even cheaper. if it is a hard brexit, then the sterling pound will crash to even lower levels as well. if you already have some in the u.k. in fundamentally strong stocks, that cash should not be of earthly affected. revenues look pretty interesting as well -- should not be adversely affected. revenues look pretty interesting as well. slightly stronger than
expected here. analysts were hoping for a 692.93. we have seen the offshore ren, calm in the currency. the dollar taking a bit of a breather here. look at chinese banks. they sold 31 $5 billion in forex -- $3.5 billion in foreign exchange. signs towards the end of the month here that we did see the yuan is looking more attractive as things are looking at live it cheap. perhaps we could see more stabilization in the currency. plenty more to come here on bloomberg markets: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
david: a quick check on the latest business flash. rio tinto says aluminum producers will need additional smelting capacity outside china as inventories shrink in the coming years. aluminum demand remains extremely healthy, the china may not be a significant exporter from no one. our guys at bloomberg intelligence have a positive view on aluminum. goldman says the market is too relaxed. says that itk rock may -- mutual fund prices in china. to sellany is in talks .ts 16.5% stake they hope tos said be a strong player in china.
david: the whistleblower looking to work with parliament. he left after suspicious amounts of money flowing to estonia. yvonne: we have markets here in china. .3%.ang seng up about a-shares should be seeing gains as well. futures up about 30 points at the moment. the stabilization we have seen in the dollar. just a slight weakness heading into the renminbi today. let me show you some moves when it comes to property stocks in hong kong. we did see new data that came
through from centerline saying home prices in existing homes are falling, a 1.3% drop. but still the biggest weekly 2016, perhapsch just adding to more warnings out there of a correction. we are watching some of the property developers. we want to look at the oil movers. china over the weekend cutting their prices -- retail prices of gas and diesel, the largest drop we have seen in nearly four years. this is a reflection in the change in oil prices we have seen internationally out of late -- oblique -- internationally of late. watching,rs we are ever grant health, more fallout here with this jv partner, the company saying that workers from
jb started a class-action complaint. this is coming through concerns that they made the initial investment, that they failed to inject additional funds. the stuff could be seeing losses of 2.3%. ofcent plans to rein in some , furthernt on we chat response of the government trying to clean up the sector in general. but this could be another setback for tencent, which already lost to hundred billion dollars in market value since that begin january. xiaomi and alibaba reporting earnings later on today. point -- 1.5%,e but down considerably from its initial idea. will the internet side of the business start to deliver? that is what the founder has been pitching. the numbers give more clarity later on today.
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rishaad: 9:39 here in hong kong. stocks push marginally higher. we have the u.s.-china trade tensions. no signs of improvement after the weekend. tensions manifesting themselves ,ith xi jinping and mike pence having quashed optimism that relations might improved. thai gdp is out in an hour and we have brexit rumbling on. david: earnings a little bit for xiaomi. alibaba comes out with earnings.
we are in a period evaluation in the health care space. have yields. yvonne: we did see some green thats, building the case the rally can continue after it seems we reached a bit of a floor when it comes to chinese equities. we do see stabilization in the currency. we have seen gains into the hang seng market. theshanghai composite is best weekly gain in the a-shares markets in september last week. we are extending those gains by about a 10th of 1%. seems like there are a lot of risks over some of these gains we have seen. not just the
kindergarten stocks, the education stocks, which really took a tumble on friday given the policy changes. small caps in hong kong taking a tumble with no apparent reason. perhaps there are still signs of concern. at least we are seeing more stability when it comes to the learning me. large-cap -- to the renminbi. the hong kong market, when it comes to equity terminal, look at what we have been seeing resign. recently. the turnover comes after this year's lows, the yellow line. this is the 2018 average. we are heading back to the lows we saw earlier this year, which has been pretty surprising given the fact we have seen big layers in the stock market report earnings. tencent outperformed in a way and beat expectations. that should have sent a signal of a turnaround. traders are closing books
perhaps, done for the year. david: it's been busy. it kind of makes sense. if you can't salvage anything also the risk and get out. you?re >> good. david: when you look at valuations, single digits, we are roughly at about three fourths through the earnings season. are they cheap, expensive or just right? >> they are cheap. belowes are my deviation historical averages. don't forget, you now have the adrs and tech names inthere. for the past -- in there. for the past 12 to 14 years, they were not there. out, et th -- you net that
they are trading below their historical averages as well. rishaad: i can buy this a couple of weeks cheaper. >> that's right. . you have the potential value traps. you have to be very specific in terms of how you look at stocks. rishaad: you have to take a long-term view. >> looking at whether or not earnings can be sustainable over the next three to five years. don't look at the coming quarter. there is a lot of noise. saw trade noises and tensions coming out of the u.s. and the chinese. the brexit deal is probably out the table for the time being. >> it changes every day. rishaad: we talk about the glass being half full. >> the noise has a lot of impact. if you look at a longer-term basis, things are fairly decent, when you look at overall earnings growth.
you look at singin, they are close to being 20%. earnings growth is still decent. guidance for 2019 isn't as strong as in the beginning of the year. things are not looking as poorly as people expected. david: should we look at those two major issues, the trade spat, whether or not we get a deal, which we won't know until we exit get a deal? and the cash and credit crunch in china? are those two things separate? >> they are separate. you can look at these ideas were the trade will be an ongoing aspect. when you saw what is happening in the mainland, you do not -- not only do you have -- happening, but the tax cuts will be important. one way to combat these trade tensions is potentially having tax cuts to promote spending.
rishaad: debt is a massive problem, especially among some of these property developers. exactly. last week, was i couple of firms it is interesting right now and terms of a cash crunch. at least you know has in prices and owning property is one of the way for investors -- it's kind of like their well-being of sorts. you tend to see government relaxed policies went prices weekend -- when prices weekend and when they get too high. they play a bit of tug and pull here. david: so it is not a solvency issue. >> they do need the cash to continue to buy land and sell properties. short-term of a advancement of cash flow.
a lot of these investors are looking more and more interesting. year to date, they have fallen 25%. earnings are about three and half times. dividend yields are 10%. you are getting a bond at 10%. then you can get equities at 10% as well, with that potential capital appreciation as well. there are some interesting points to look at. the shot: things are cheap for a reason. > they are cheap -- rishaad: things are cheap for a reason. >> things are cheap for a reason. you will not by every single property stock. that said, because the sector has underperformed so much year to date, there are some looking a bit interesting. you might want to focus on those that don't focus primarily in residential. you may want to focus on commercial as well. those protect you a little bit. david: what about banks? one of our guests last week
basically said, when the straight issue goes away them a that is the first thing you want -- once this trade issue goes away, that is the first thing you want to be in. the one thing you have to be worried about right now for chinese banks is governments are telling the banks to lend to certain people. insurers may be 70 want to 2019.losely into we believe there could be the potential of policy listening to help with the sector going forward. david: lots more to talk about. xiaomi coming out with earnings. rishaad: let's find out what is happening in the first word news. we get the latest from paul allen.
paul: the trump administration will issue its report into the murder of saudi journals jamal khashoggi on tuesday a man -- among indications that the journalist was killed by a crown order. president trump says that may never be proved. the president also says the cia report is premature. >> what ever -- what anybody ever really know? he certainly had people that were reasonably close to him, and close to him that were probably involved. we put on massive sanctions on a large group of people from saudi arabia. but at the same time, we do have an ally, and i want to stick with an ally that in many ways has been very good. 2500 migrantsn have reached the u.s. border with you one of -- with tijuana. inspectors are only assessing
about 100 claims a day. president trump says the backlog could last six months. the u.s. will not stand for what he describes as an invasion. theresa may is continuing to sell her brexit deal. the vote on her leadership has been threatened that has yet to be formally announced. ay told her critics that removing her won't change the situation. suggestingier is that the transition period be extended to the end of 2022. it is dropping plans. elon musk tweeted that the rockets would only have minor changes to improve reliability. focus onpacex will now the falcon heavy booster for the accelerated design program he described as delightfully counterintuitive. global news 24 hours a day, on
help sliding shares. you want to check out those stories trending online or on the terminal. david: xiaomi is another tech giant that is fighting this massive slide in the share price. down 24% since it listed last summer, probably under concern that it internet services are failing to match expectations. fears.y those rishaad: tom, what are we expecting? david touched on the central question that analysts have been wrestling, whether or not they can shift her transition from a hardware sales
or smart phone sales company to one that is a proven internet services. of course, so far, the data, the numbers suggest they have a long way to go. the numbers today show that revenues are about -- 70% of revenues come from smart phone sales for xiaomi. only less than 10% come from internet services. again, a long way to go. we should get more clarity on that picture. in terms of the expectations for some of the profits we can see tonight, our own in-house economist or analyst at bloomberg intelligence, they expect the smartphone sales growth profits will soften on weaker demand and also some currency effects as well, particularly from the major markets or india, its major overseas market. --omberg invalid just bloomberg intelligence sees and improved monetization of the advertising the xiaomi is profiting from, an potentially a tick up in the active monthly users. we saw in june 200 million
active monthly users. whether or not that much or not the measure goes up will be important as well for the overall business and whether or not xiaomi can monetize those increased users if we do get a tick up in that number. david: the stock is cheap -- i wouldn't say cheap. the stock is down. it is under pressure. you investors see this as an brought unity -- an opportunity to get back in? buy ratingis still a on the stock. there is division. you got the likes of citigroup, which recently graded the stock a buy, saying investors were not seeing the opportunities around its overseas sales, the fact that it was able to price its products pretty cheaply, and the advertising revenue can drive as well. on the flip that, you have bank
of america merrill lynch, which has downgraded its rating for the stock, particularly on concerns. it points out that 95% of xiaomi sales were in emerging markets. yet eight books many of its costs in u.s. dollars. so it is bank of america pointing out the currency risks for this company. we will see it all come out in the wash with the third-quarter results at the end of today hong kong time. but certainly, division on how this company goes forward from here. rishaad: let's get more on this and get back to easement investments. what is going on? >> the company trades at a very high valuation multiple, weather in the high 20's or low 30's. rishaad, it is treated as a software company. >> and then some. they are in the mid-20's valuation. you look at a lot of the hardware, which i sobbed lower
those compare at the words, they are starting to team. you have to thing about do i want to pay a company when there is much more comparables, whether it is the internet the hardware space, which is much cheaper. david: what would be a reasonable range of the multiple? you look at the business. you know -- you look at howard breaks down revenues. >> when you look at the valuations at 30 times now, when you get towards the high teens, the low 20's, that might be something a bit more interesting. you have to look at comparables. you have to look at whether it is here. it is much cheaper. well, their suppliers, a lot of these hardware guys will do well. again, that is where you look at. similar to apple, the thing is that apple does well and it allows apple suppliers do well
as well. you don't have to buy something that expensive. earningsd 30 times where a lot of suppliers. you get something at half the price. supplieslt, a letter will do well. david: we were talking about tencent during the break. the stocks actually trading at 20 type -- 28 times forward. it is actually cheaper than mccormick. rishaad: at least mccormick makes something. david: the they against mccormick, obviously, but these are two companies that we should not be looking at on the same scale. >> correct. as a whole, i think people are looking at tech stocks tend to be -- again, because we have some negative sentiment, whether it will be online gaming's are what is happening.
as a result, you get a lot more short interest in the stock, as a valuation investor, you say no. things are looking more tractive. some investors may want to start increasing their exposure. they could have just flooded the market with ads and they did not do that. you have to give them some credit. they could have made up for it by doing that. those are discussions that we have. >> with these short-term hiccups, but they do have this medium, long-term view as to how they call out their business, not worrying about what will be happening on the policy front? at the end of the day, you want investment businesses not only having short-term results, but the medium to long-term as well. that is sustainable returns year and in your out. >> where else do you like? out.ar in and year
david: where else do you like? more willee a bit back into the sector, there are opportunities. there are stocks having around 10%, 11% dividend-year-old. people are saying should we buy banks? should we buy you stay stocks? twice asare close to much as we do with chinese banks at the moment. rishaad: what about the banks themselves they are seemingly still in love. . they are -- >> they are. rishaad: explain why. they do have a history -- when we looked at japanese banks, those banks traded at .5 times. .7.ese banks are
as a result, that is why people are still looking at chinese banks. because there are policies, and a lot of things that the central government does to influence how they lend their money. i think that is why investors are still somewhat skeptical. for us, the insurance sector gets more interesting as we head into towards 2019. but more commercial. david: yes. yvonne: let's talk about these tech stocks. we have seen some of the moves in the taiwanese market. we have not seen disappointing earnings. that may not be over just yet. -- hon hai down at the
moment. they will be reviewing the salaries of some of the senior executives as the company plans to cut costs. 1%.stock down close to , downgradedwas also the stock iran to 30 night -- 239. we are looking for238. we see the biggest operant -- outperformer on the hang seng, today.o 5% on the upside take a look again at some of these education stocks as well, which really got pummeled on friday after there was a draft proposal jerking run china that they were banning these for-profit kindergartens from using equity market financing. we saw a rebound.
elliott management and its push for a radical overhaul. david: google cloud is about to have a change in leaders. he will join the operation alongside green until she leaves. spentent have -- she heavily to challenge amazon. now she says she intends to remain on the board of alphabet. tilton: andrew apec andg aipac and --
rishaad: it is almost 10:00 a.m. in hong kong. this is bloomberg markets. >> markets post modest gains even as a u.s. and china jostle for supremacy in asia. there is little sign of tension easing. singapore says countries will have to choose one side or the other. rishaad: australian banks resume. could not say why things went so badly wrong.
>> markets came out of apec in stride. lack of a communique did not shift the market in any way. it needs to be a little more optimistic. hawkishnesstle less from the fed. the 10 year is 15 points lower. em.reates some runway for suggestingrlier on, it is time to get overweight on the 10 year. with all these different things going on we have japan gdp -- japan trade data earlier. a bit of a disappointment. looking also at brexit. that continues to weigh on sterling.